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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

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If Im getting promoted to the thread header, than Dave Bush is due for a call up.

No way the Phils throw $5 million at Oswalt. Rube shot his wad with Paps and Jimmy.

On Cesar Hernandez: he popped up on some prospect lists after 2010, but he has had a really up-and-down minor league career and last year was down. He's doing much better this year and is even hitting a lot of doubles and triples. Unfortunately, his ability to draw a walk -- which he did quite well in the low minors -- seems to have left him as he has gotten to the higher levels.

I'm not against signing Oswalt given the current state of Doc and Worley but I'm also not dumb enough to think he will last til the end of the year without hitting the DL as well.

I'm not sure how they can add Oswalt's salary with alleged salary cap issues unless they dump salary...or the alleged salary cap issues were blown out of proportion.

I read elsewhere that Kratz has been recalled? Therefore someone must be hitting the DL? Not sure who it could be. Obviously praying it's not Ruiz but they painted his injury as just a tweak and were going to keep him out tonight again just to give it another day.

*** read elsewhere that Kratz has been recalled? Therefore someone must be hitting the DL? ***

Two possibilities as I see it:

1. Doc goes on DL and Kratz is up...this is temporary as it covers Chooch being banged up and acknowledges the reality that we dont need another SP for at least a week due to the off day.

2. Orr is being sent down to bring him up as Chooch is day-to-day and we need a 3rd catcher more than a 3rd backup middle infielder.

Quoted in the Header?

I can now die a happy man.

Those are probably the 2 best bets NEPP. My mind immediately thought of the worst though...another DL stint for someone, namely Chooch.

My bet is that Halladay goes on the DL. If for no other reason than to give him two weeks off. With the off day, there's one less day in which they'll need a spot starter. Couple that with the fact that Halladay has been pretty sub-par his last three starts and Kendrick has been pretty good, the net loss for TWO STARTS isn't all that great.

Now, if there's some structural damage and Halladay's out an extended period of time, that's a whole other issue altogether.

"Quoted in the Header? I can now die a happy man."

Only if you die immediately. More likely, you will survive for many more years, encounter life's many miseries along the way, and eventually die angry and embittered -- and probably too senile to even remember that you were ever quoted in the Beerleaguer header.

Enjoy your week.

b_a_p: You're the best. This is first time I actually laughed aloud when reading something on Beerleaguer. Thanks for the chuckle.

Enjoy yours as well.

My actual stance on the Hamels situation:

-I want the Phils to sign him, and while I feel that 7-8 year contracts are incredibly risky, and if that's what it takes to get him, I will be on board if they give him that mega-contract. Hamels is one of my all-time favorite Phillies, and for the sake of having a pitcher in his prime, especially one who was brought through your system, he's about as safe a bet for a 7 year contract as pitchers get. That being said, if the Phillies are reticent to match a 7 year/$160-180 M deal, I won't criticize them. That's a MAJOR investment, and no team should just be expected to make such a huge investment in one player.

My stance as seen through the eyes of TTI, Iceman, Clout, Phlipper, and others:

-All long-term contracts are bad, Hamels is easily replaceable and not that important to the team, no teams other than the Phillies have bad contracts, I could do RAJ's job better than he can, I think we should trade Hamels mid-season for prospects, I don't appreciate what Hamels has done for this team, and I hate Ryan Howard. Or some derivative of the above.

What's the source for the Kratz recall? I couldn't find anything about it.

Fata- you also hate Rollins. You left that one out.

Go make a list of top pitchers the Phillies have developed in the last 75 years.

Go see where Hamels is on that list (#2 IMHO after RR).

He is not "easily replaceable".

I read that Kratz was being recalled as a precaution.

Actually, Cesar has been a pretty solid prospect. Yes, he struggled at the beginning of last year. But that was when he was double jumped over Lakewood. His starts the second half of last year and this year have been consistently good. Now if he can just draw more walks and stop getting caught stealing.

If last place = exceeding expectations, then what were said expectations? Forfeiting the remainder of the season? The franchise being contracted? I do not recall predictions involving prolonged stretches in the basement of a division made up of teams widely derided by many a Beerleaguer. Call it "looking on the bright side", or "it could be worse", but "exceeding expectations"? Please.

I'd call it 'living up to' my expectations, i.e., tread water into June, hope for reinforcements and a strong finish.

Hopefully, Kentucky Joe can locate his fastball tonight and keep the ball in teh park. With Halladay down, they can't afford Blanton to scuffle for several starts in a row.

All one can say is that if this dirty two-dozen plus one wins out with all of the obstacles they've had to overcome it will be more satisfying than '08.

btw: yeah, sign Oswalt, we could always use another LF.

They haven't exceeded expectations. I think most of us figured they'd hover around .500 until they got Utley & Howard back, and that's exactly what they've done. You can try to put a rosy spin on it by saying, "They've won 4 out of their last 5" or "11 out of their last 16." But, for every stretch of winning that you can find, there's a nearly equal stretch of losing. That's how you get to a .500 record.

Good catch, Iceman. Can't stand J-Roll.

I agree withe the article. Despite what the Phils have been going through they still remain above water. I think the Phils should wait to see about Doc first. This configuration didnt work last year for them. I wonder if adding Roy O will help. This is unless Roy H turns up on the DL for a extended period of time, then it will make sense to look at Roy O. The Phils need everyone to pull up to at least there career norms or close to it. Possibly adding a OF, i dont think Mayberry is up to par as of yet. Maybe Mayberry needs more ML at bats or maybe he is just destined to be a back up.

I tend to think that "exceeding expectations" refers more to a few players who happened to be stepping up, at times in a big way.

Hamels being Hamels at his best most sustained levels ever, Ruiz turning into a fully accomplished major league hitter, Freddy Galvis being the best 8 hole hitter in the league, Pierre hitting well above .300 for most of the year, Blanton and Kendrick looking very good at times, and new bullpen arms starting to get more comfortable coupled with a turnaround for Bastardo and the complete and total dominance (when he gets permission to pitch) of Paps. We expected competence from Paps, but, speaking for myself, I've got that old 2008 Brad Lidge feel from Paps this year and I'm not sure I'd ever get that again.

Otherwise, I wouldn't say they are "exceeding expectations" as a team. I would probably say this is more a case of the Phils being about where we thought they were, yet doing it in a way that was completely unexpected. They are not being carried by J-Roll, Doc and Cliff and Hunter and Shane and RFD. Actually, all of those guys have been something of a let down at times, save possibly Phifer.

They're NOT exceeding expectations. Expections wwere that they'd be in first place. That being said, they're doing well all things considered. Right now Atlanta is no worse off than the Phils. Who'da thunk that?

The Phillies were craptacular in April and did not even meet expectations. May has been a different story, though for different reasons than one would expect.

I have been away for the weekend so I don't know if anyone has posted these numbers, but they're self-explanatory:


Phillies offense in April:

23 G, 76 R, 3.304 RPG, .247/.293/.347

NL offensive average in April:

362 G, 1449 R, 4.003 RPG, .247/.314/.388
.
.
Phillies offense in May:

27 G, 132 R, 4.889 RPG, .281/.341/.430

NL offensive average in May:

418 G, 1780 R, 4.258 RPG, .255/.321/.403
______________________________________________________________


Phillies Pitching in April: 3.03 ERA

NL Pitching in April: 3.65 ERA
.
.
Phillies' pitching in May: 4.25 ERA

NL pitching in May: 4.01 ERA

(source: b-r.com)

I don’t know much about what goes into training for the position of pitcher. But I don’t see how Oswalt could be anywhere near game-ready after working out in his back yard for lo these many months. It can’t be as rigorous or directed as training with a team and professional trainers, no?

Since when have the Phillies been in the business of making "precautionary" recalls? When Chooch is suddenly scratched one day & Kratz is sent to join the team in NY the next, I have concerns.

RE Cesar hernandez:

Didn't he suffer a torn ACL in the last couple of years, or am I confusing him with someone else?

Roy Halladay has been diagnosed with seasonal allergies.

My expectation wasn't first place on Memorial Day. It was to be around .500, as there was no way that this skeleton offense would outpace other teams early on.

I figured the Marlins would run out to an early division lead; instead, the Nationals have done that. I figured the Braves would play solid, second-place ball throughout, and they have, sans the last week or so. I figured the Nationals would hover around .500 but maybe be a little better; instead, the Marlins have played that role. And the Mets? I had no idea what to expect, but that they could be an interesting wrench. They have proven as such.

So far, everything is just about in its right place.

RE: Cesar Hernandez

Isn't he the guy who talks to dogs?

I think he played the Joker on the old Batman show.

DPatrone: Who was expecting the Phillies to be in first place with Utley and Howard out?

I think the general belief was to tread water and stay within striking distance til those guys got back.

Elias: NL East having every team 2+ over .500 is 1st time for a division this late since NL West 6/15/06. (via Adam Rubin)

***Didn't he suffer a torn ACL in the last couple of years, or am I confusing him with someone else?***

I thought that too but that was Harold Garcia...who is still hurt BTW.

What's the source for the Kratz recall? I couldn't find anything about it.

Posted by: epicurean | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Kratz traveled to New York with the team in case he needs to be activated.

NEPP, thanks for teh clarification.

The LV gm was on comcast network... Bush did well last night, but when he runs out of gas, there's no doubt about it.

Comment abt managerial style--

II did not understand why Sandburg left Schwimmer in the gm so long..he started the 9th with a 5 run lead, but the gbraves kept chipping away at it.

They kept on getting xtra or just base hits, or walks etc and they ended up within 2 runs of the lead.. And 2 outs. It had to be excessively hot on the mound & Schwimmerv was out there at least a good 20 minutes or longer..

THEN he serves up the 3 run Hr to give the gbraves the win


I don't think even UC would do that? I would have pulled Scwimmer's a** out of the game...before the situation was that critical - but Sandburg didn't --,wonder why...

RE: Harold Garcia

Isn't he the guy who went looking for a White Castle with his friend, Kumar?

pop - I heard abt Kratz this morning on wip..

Pop should be 'ppp'

Caesar Romero played the Joker on the Batman TV show in the mid 60's

I believe he's since passed away...

I don't think even UC would do that? I would have pulled Scwimmer's a** out of the game...before the situation was that critical - but Sandburg didn't --,wonder why...

Posted by: Let's go eat | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 01:17 PM

But but but the ppp has already judged Sandberg to be a far superior manager to Charlie Manuel because he managed a triple A team last year and he doesn't have a West Virginia accent. What gives?

Garcia was pretty good. Should fit right in decent BA, SO out a bunch and rarely takes a walk. In honesty the kid did look ok but cant stay healthy.

This just in...in 3rd district ct....Rollins has official sued and won his copyright case...Kelloggs must now call their breakfast food Roll Tarts....

Could be Sandberg is trying out a guy the Phil's see as a potential back end reliever in tough situations, see if he is able to pitch out of them? The goal for farm systems is player development, not necessarily winning.

Maybe everyone just hates Schwimmer and they keep putting him in these spots hoping he'll fail and explode after that whole Yankees love confessional thing.

Could be Sandberg is trying out a guy the Phil's see as a potential back end reliever in tough situations, see if he is able to pitch out of them? The goal for farm systems is player development, not necessarily winning.

Posted by: Heather | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 01:35 PM

Sandberg is a bumbling fool. His team is 3.5 games out of first. Get rid of him and replace him with Dusty Wathan post haste!

What am I going to do with all these Schwimer autographs I bought on eBay now?!?

Wow, pissy pants posse is easily the most annoying person on this site right now. As irritating and annoying as clout, but without the panache. And every once in a while, clout tells an anecdote about some random baseball player that makes you forget, if for just a moment, that he hates every fiber of your soul.

I can see the Phillies trotting out an infield of Howard, Hernandez, Galvis and Asche is a couple of years. That is, if Howard is still around. I imagine he will be. But JRoll will be a sub and Utley will be surfing in Cali on his two new knee replacements.

Hopefully, Hamels (6yrs/140mil) is the ace with Lee still pitching well and Papelbon is still closing well. Other than that, I don't see anyone else from the current team definitely on this team in two to three years. There are no talented young backups. Bastardo might still be around, but he may price himself out of the picture if he continues to pitch well and stays healthy. Kendrick might be around if he continues to surprise and the Phillies don't mind overpaying a bit for a homegrown player. Worley? Who knows at this point. Maybe.

I couldn't care less about W-L records in Lehigh Valley or any minor league team. If I was trying to break down managerial moves in AAA games I'd seek professional help.

Galvis can hit .050 if he keeps dazzling in the field and he can play anywhere he wants in any infield I have to watch. The guy is an absolute pleasure to watch in the field.

"Clout gets a lot of unwarranted bad press."

-Nicolae Ceauşescu

JC Romero passed away? oh my god....

JC Romero passed away? oh my god....

Posted by: Mick O

?????

Schwimer is LV's closer. From his brief time in Philly, we saw what happens to him when he doesn't pitch in save situations. All hell breaks loose.

The reason he allowed 6 runs and 6 base runners in last night's game is because he entered the game with a 5-run lead and didn't have the requisite adrenaline rush which enables him to pitch well. If you haven't read the relevant scientific literature, you'd probably think that Schwimer's adrenaline might have eventually started rushing after LV's lead started slipping away & the go-ahead run came up to the plate for the opposing team. But researchers at Dartmouth University have found otherwise. Among this strange species called closers, adrenaline can only start rushing when he actually enters the game in the final inning, with: (1) a 3-run lead or less; or (2) the tying run on-base, at bat, or in the on-deck circle. Since these circumstances did not exist when Schwimer actually entered the game, his adrenaline did not rush and could not start rushing at any time thereafter.

The only way to make adrenaline start rushing would have been to bring in a new pitcher, in what would now have been a save situation -- thus, triggering the relevant adrenaline rush. But then the problem is that you'd be using a non-closer in a save situation. That would be like putting a cell phone battery into your car & expecting the car to run.

BAP, a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario if there ever was one. Thank you for that fine explanation.

JoeD: Blame GTD, Hugh, and LGE

BAP, good work in finding that. I thought Johns Hopkins did that study, but I must be wrong.

MIT is currently working on an advanced statistical analysis of how pitching your closer in a potentially winning inning on the road increases your chance of winning by 1,000 percent, while pitching that same closer in a non potentially winning inning not only will cause you to lose 1 hundred million percent of the time, but will also cause locusts to swarm somewhere near the Gobi desert and cause the first born sons of all left handed people to develop Scarlet Fever.

JC Romero passed away? oh my god....

Posted by: Mick O | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 02:00 PM

The Field of Dreams roster's OBP will increase significantly. RIP.

He didn't die. He just want to Baseball Heaven...Orioles.

By the way, I think Rube should spring the Doc news and then pull out the Chase or Howard news. They might as well, while we are puking,crying or cheering.

Yay! more stupid closer talk...and another chance for people to ignore other's opinions and just continue on with their already formed notions.

Five-4-One: You are correct. It was Johns Hopkins, not Dartmouth. I was confusing the study of adrenaline rushes in closers with the study which linked worldwide seismic activity to not playing the no-doubles defense in the 9th inning. That one was from Dartmouth.

Truth: There is a decided difference between "ignoring others' opinions" and listening to that opinion but believing it is wrong.

NEPP gave a pretty good scouting report on Cesar Hernandez in the last thread after Jack wondered why he wasn't more highly rated, but I'll add my two cents.

He's a legit prospect (BA has him at #14 out of Phils top 30, Sickels gives him a C) and his strong suit is defense. He is sure-handed, fast and has a great arm for 2B. He initially had some positioning problems that cut down on great natural range, but he's overcome those this season.

So, why isn't he ranked higher? His bat. His career SLG is .384 and while he's got a decent BA (.292 career) he doesn't walk much and his SB/CS ratio is poor so he's yet to show base-stealing skills. Plus, a punch-and-judy hitter has no business striking out 80 times in 421 ABs, which is what Cesar did last year.

He's projected as a good-glove, singles-hitting, low-OB guy in The Show, more likely to be a utility guy than a starter.

But at age 22, his walk rate and power could improve and with his glove it wouldn't take much to make him an everyday player.

Oh, and generally speaking, the EL is considered a pitcher's league.

clout: I thought Reading was considered more of a pitchers park than hitters, but i've seen other disagree - your thoughts?

Am I the only person checking his/her Twitter feed every ~5 minutes to see if there is news about Roy?

Do it Rube. One last ride with Oswalt so Zolecki and Salisbury can pen "The Rotation 2".

Iceman: No. But I hate myself for doing it because I did it back in the winter, too, and look what I got for it.

Yep...checking too often. Because I fear the news, I worry that the later it goes with no word, the less positive the results.

Prediction: the feedback on Halladay will be inconclusive -- as feedback usually is on these types of things.

I'm not checking up on Doc's status because whatever we are told will most likely be a lie. I wonder if they just won't say anything. That approach is working well for them with Utley and Howard so far. Maybe we'll just forget Doc left after 2 innings in his last start.

Bap, this is what I'm thinking. There is inflammation and a slight cuff tear that some doctors say you can pitch with, and others say will need surgery eventually. And then they'll say he's scheduled for a second opinion on Thursday, and then the same thing. Then they will say he is being shut down for 2 weeks and then they will reevaluate. One month from now he'll be long tossing and they will be talking about simulated games and pitching from a mound.

Which means, do you stick with a coin flip version of Doc, or do you go and get him fixed for next year.

All wild speculation I know, but I feel like its just the type of diagnosis that will drive us all crazy.

The Doc Halladay injury...the best thing that's happened to Howard and Utley in a while. I guess the Phils don't have to worry about pesky beat reporters breaking in to see Howard work out.

They're too basy hanging out in the lobby at Jeff trying to get some orderly to peak through a door window.

Five-4-One: That's almost exactly how I see this thing playing out too.

Oswalt is not going to happen because he's a silly luxury. What happens if you add him and then get everyone back? Doc, Hamels, Lee, Worley, Blanton, Oswalt, KK? That's seven starters. And who are you going to put in the bullpen? KK and Blanton are much better as starters. Worley could make a good reliever, but it would be a waste as he's such a good starter. And who really believes Oswalt would be an upgrade over Worley, Blanton or KK at this point?
Look at quality starts: Worley is 5 of 7, KK is 4 of 6, and even Blanton is 5 of 9. Last year, Oswalt was 14 for 23 starts. I just don't see him as improving over what we already have.
Everyone needs to relax and let the situation play out with our current rotation depth, which is the best in baseball.

T-Mac: you suck at your job.

This just in ... in 3rd district ct ... Rollins has official sued and won his copyright case ... Kelloggs must now call their breakfast food Roll Tarts ...

Ha! Practically the only funny &/or interesting thing I've read all day. Well, that & Hugh's "Joker" comment. Quite frankly, I'm mad at myself for not thinking of both.


Five-4-One: I think you nailed it. This crap will drag on for weeks.

Ah the quality start. What a great stat. Or not.

How can any one be taken serious when they use T-Mac as a handle.

The thing that really cracks me up about T-Mac is that as much as the opinions among this board differ greatly, it seems everyone is united in Tom McCarthy loathing.

He is the perfect example of someone that a local sports team seems to be trying to jam down the collective throats of the fans. He's nice and safe for the public at large. They can get away with the edge of the radio guys since only the hard core fans be radio listeners.

Hard to believe anybody even invokes the quality start anymore, what with the widespread usage of sabremetrics.

Its like everyone decides to start driving flying cars with 8 tracks in them.

I have almost completely mastered the art of not even hearing McCarthy anymore. I know the mute button would really solidify that but even with the volume up I basically just tune the guy out.

Ah the quality start. What a great stat. Or not.

Joe D: I'd say an ERA of 4.50 over 6 IP doesn't necessarily indicate quality, but a failure to reach even those low standards certainly indicates a lack thereof. To me, it's a minimum achievement level.

So maybe the could call it adequate start?

@GTown....of course not being able to pull a 4.50 ERA in 6 IP would be terrible. I don't need anything to quantify that. It's called "sucking".

Kept your team in it (KYTII) start?

Its just another meaningless stat for T-Mac to get overly excited about.

Have any partial season ticket holders noticed that the Phillies have once again begun allowing ticket exchanges? This used to be a standard ticket holder "benefit", but it was discontinued last season as (presumably) the volume of ticket sales was so high as to make it impractical, if not unprofitable. Apparently such is not the case in '12. My inner clout finds this development "interesting".

I dropped my partial plan before last season but I know in 2010 they allowed exchanges but only for select (aka undesirable) games. They took that away in 2011?

Joe D: Yup. And now it's back, for selected series & dates throughout the middle of the season (as previously).

Joe D: Yup. And now it's back, for selected series & dates throughout the middle of the season (as previously).

Posted by: GTown_Dave

Very odd that they would pull that back. I would have been livid if they did that and I had an on-deck series game. I had one for one of the years I had my plan. I traded it in and just paid the difference.

Yeah I'll just bet Rube and Dangerous Dave are sitting there batting around an Oswalt signing and one says to the other " If we sign him we'll probably end up with too many starters and that would suck."

The thinking of having too many arms if/when everyone is healthy is incredibly funny to me. We are talking about a team that has 3 aces. 3! I think it's safe to say they don't care about a surplus of arms.

I would be happier with Aramis Ramirez at 3, Galvis at SS and Palanco at 2B...

Yeah Ramirez has really been raking this year? Oh wait he hasn't?

I was born July 5, 1968, in Jersey City, New Jersey and am an American sports broadcaster. I am the play-by-play announcer for Philadelphia Phillies television broadcasts. I was the play-by-play voice of Saint Joseph's University men's and women's basketball teams.

Jealous much?

Suck it losers!

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