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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

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Passion, persistence and persuasion (with Charlie).

Stutes to the DL; Schwimer up. This bullpen is a major mess right now. That said, I remain intrigued by Schwimer. As bad as he has looked at the big league level, he does have 16 strikeouts in 14 innings. What he hasn't been able to do is throw strikes. But his control in the minors was pretty good, and 14 IP isn't much of a try-out. I still cling to the hope that he can be the type of decent middle reliever that would really help this pen.

It's kind of a mess, but not mission critical. Papelbon, who is the most important guy, has looked great lately. But Schwimer for Stutes is kind of a wash for me at this point. Contreras is iffy. Qualls has been decent.

Truly a full night of pure baseball for me. First a great game by the Ironpigs locally televised in minor league heaven. Then, MLB with great commentary especially with Mitch Williams dead-on tonight and then there was YU. Finishing with Vance, who appears, all BS aside, as a budding Greg Maddux with the home plate umpire in, and agreeing with Worley's pitches and head. Great night.

Wow. I worked the polls all day and came home exhausted. Turned on the game and watched the first couple of innings and fell asleep in the chair.

I woke up at about 12:30 and saw the score flash on the screen right before the Post-Game Show: 8 - 5 Phillies.

Is this 2007?

jw: True. Our 2 back-end guys have been better than advertised & Schwimer isn't likely to be any worse than Stutes has been. But Cholly doesn't trust young relievers, and we've got 2 of them now. That means we'll be seeing a lot of Contreras & Herndon in those 6th and 7th inning situations. I'd almost rather see the young guys because Herndon is underwhelming and Conteras looks like a guy who is completely shot.

General thoughts on the innnings I saw:

Vance Worley will have a bad outing now and then, but he seems out to prove that 2011 was no fluke. He seems like a very focused and determined young pitcher, who does not give in to hitters. Also, his stuff looks a little better than last season - better velocity.

1 R, 6 IP, 2.16 ERA on the season. If he continues to pitch this well they may very well be able to weather Cliff Lee's trip to the DL.

Second thought: Charlie Manuel needs to take the green light away from Juan Pierre.

still nothing impressive. that was their worst starter. and their worst closer last night.

Also, I checked the box score and noticed that both Mayberry and Galvis were inserted late for defensive purposes.

Nice to see Charlie starting to mix and match a little.

awh: Worley's stuff does look better than last year. He's throwing a little harder & his 2-seamer has become a huge weapon. His command wasn't even very good tonight, yet he still managed to shut down a good offense in a bad pitcher's park.

At some point we might just need to reconsider the conventional wisdom about what his ceiling is.

phillytime: Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm vaguely getting the sense that you were not impressed with the pitching we faced tonight.

bap, it will probably take this year AND next for us to see what Worley's ceiling really is. That's my thought anyway.

That said, what I like most about him is his attitude. He just doesn't give in to hitters, and seems hell bent in proving the naysayers wrong. You sense that by the way he pitches and his demeanor on the mound that he absolutely hates to lose, and I like that in a player.

That said, because we're complimenting him he'll probably suffer from the BL Reverse Jinx and get shelled his next time out.

Charlie Manuel needs to take the green light away from Juan Pierre.

Amen.


Also, one gets the feeling phillytime was sitting there amidst the general drunken revelry of 29 October '08 saying, "Yeah, but it was Tampa. Beat the Red Sox & I'll be impressed ..."

Me, I'm just so damn happy to finally see a few Phillies runs crossing the plate I don't even care that it's probably a fluke.

i don't care what anyone says. vance worley is legit and has a name that would suggest he should have been a pitcher in the 1930's. he's no number 1 or even 2, but he's a good major league pitcher.

the offense was nice, but the people that did the real damage and matter didn't do diddly. but i digress, i will never complain about runs scored. it's still early and this team will make the postseason. while washington is improved, they're over-performing. atlanta will be difficult, but their offense can be shut down - match-ups with them will be extremely important.

bullpen is suspect. for every strength they have an equal an opposite weakness. i don't care if that doesn't make sense, because i'm drunk and elated at a phillies victory.


go phillies, first posts, and juan pierre outs that are singles!

When GTown and BAP are implying you're an overly negative poster, I hope to hell you have a good therapist who can prescribe some antidepressants. Good luck with that phillytime.

God, phillytime is seriously ticking me off. Getting me steamed, even. Park the mindless pessimism crap on some other blog, man. There are enough mindless pessimists here; at least they have the decency to be both amusing and occasionally good-humored about it.

Sit Rollins down play Galvis and Orr for another game. Worley looked fine i still need to see more before i can say he is the real deal. So far so good but he labors has high pitch counts sometimes walks a bunch. I do believe he can be another Blanton in terms of similar numbers.

I can only imagine the pessimism if the Phils failed to hit the D'backs pitchers. Darned if you hit, darned if you don't.

I fell asleep early, had some nightmare about a mountain lion chasing my five year old, woke up and watched Mike Zagurski K Jim Thome, decided to resume the nightmare.

Is baseball-reference correct - all 6 of Worley's Ks went down looking? Absolutely uncanny how teams just watch him throw that backdoor/front door pitch with 2 strikes.

On the Vanimal:

His L/R splits are not as dramatic as last season, but they ARE, once again, reverse splits. He's performing better against LHP than RHP. That 2-seamer must be filthy to a LHB.

Though only 4 starts (25 IP) this season, this may be an indication that his MLB success (though not to the extent [low ERA] he has succeeded so far) is sustainable.

Since I enjoy watching him pitch it will be fun finding out.

Couldnt copy and paste on phone from
MLB wrap up but now Charlie is in love with "Petey" and Nix.

Worley's splits:


2011

vs. RHB: .272/.336/.439, .321 BAbip, 278 PA
vs. LHB: .201/.271/.299, .257 BAbip, 275 PA


2012

vs. RHB: .263/.333/.447, .296 BAbip, 43 PA
vs. LHB: .226/.305/.415, .303 BAbip, 59 PA

Addition to Worley split post above:

9 K vs. RHB

18 K vs. LHB

If opposing manager contimue to post lineups against Worley with more LHB than RHB, they may be playing right into his hands.

Where are all the Orr doesn't belong in the majors people this morning? Sleeping in I guess.Small sample size, o wait that's what they used to say he doesn't belong.Nix didn't look too bad either,think Cholly noticed?

"still nothing impressive. that was their worst starter. and their worst closer last night.

Posted by: phillytime"
--
Collmenter is either 2nd (MLB.com) or 3rd (ESPN) on their depth chart, and he pitched well last year, with a 3.38 ERA. His underlying stats were not bad either, with 3.80 FIP and 4.18 xFIP.

Two thoughts:

1. Worley is looking like he is for real. Not an elite Ace type pitcher but a very solid #3 type guy.

2. Schwimer is better than he showed last year and should be useful in Stutes absence. To be honest, Stutes has been pretty worthless since about mid-August last year and UC kept running him out there hoping there was something more there.

BAP, like most here, is totally obsessed with strikeouts and velocity when it comes to pitching, but location and pitch selection are actually valuable assets.

The key to Schwimer's success is his ability to locate his slider and changeup (which is more of a slow splitter.)

That ability comes and goes, but when his breaking stuff is working he's quite good. He might be better than Stutes long term, even though - gasp - Stutes has more velocity. Shocking, I know.

***The key to Schwimer's success is his ability to locate his slider and changeup (which is more of a slow splitter.)

That ability comes and goes, but when his breaking stuff is working he's quite good. He might be better than Stutes long term, even though - gasp - Stutes has more velocity. Shocking, I know.***

Exactly. And Scwhimer's MiLB numbers show he typically has very good command. personally, I think he was overthrowing when he came up last year and that affected his command.

jr: Good point on Orr. One game trumps a 6-year MLB career of 62 OPS+ every time.

We suddenly have 5 starters with OPS+ over 100:

Wigginton: 122
Victorino: 114
Ruiz: 102
Pierre: 101
Pence: 100

If Jimmy (45) and Polanco (26) ever show up and if Nix (173) is given regular playing time vs RHP, we might just have a mediocre/average offense.

I second lorecore's ripping on Rollins last night for his selfish play with a guy on 3rd and 1 out. He's really pressing right now. Could it be that he is completely out of place in the #3 spot?

If Bastardo could get his act together, the back end of this bullpen (Pap-Qualls-Bastardo) would be a very good one. Despite the fact that the Qualls signing was declared a disaster before he threw a pitch, he has looked comfortable in the 8th inning role (though it's not ideal, as he'll give up some solo HRs throughout the year).

The problem is, Bastardo's act isn't together and they can't count on him being what he was in 2011. Maybe he's pitching hurt, maybe not- doesn't really matter at this point. And those who were waiting on Contreras to get back and lift the bullpen are going to have to keep on waiting because it isn't going to happen.

If I could take one player off the 2008 team to help the 2012 team, I think it would be Chad Durbin. He'd play pretty well in this bullpen, and quite frankly, it's been thin since his departure.

Personally, I think Park more than made up for Durbin when he was brought in and Durbin was pretty much ridden into the ground by UC in 2008.

Not really interested in turning the Pete Orr Project loose longer than necessary, but I'm intrigued by more Nix.

clout: Unfortunatley, that may be the way Cholly thinks. I see a few more at-bats in Orr's near future

No one is expecting Iron Orr to be the savior of the Phillies. However freak it give him another start he might be on to something. However short lived it may be..

I think Orr should start again tonight at 2B and Galvis at SS just so Rollins can get a day off. After that, I'd be more than happy to never see Pete Orr again.

Nix should start every game against RHP until he proves otherwise.

Clout: If Orr could ops+ a 62 right now, it'd be an improvement over what our starting 2nd, 3rd, and ss are doing.

Out of Spring Training I thought it would be Nix vs RHP in LF and Wigginton vs LHP at 1B - the fluke of Pierre hitting RHP early and Mayberry's struggles have trashed that idea, but on paper thats still your best matchup and is what I believe should be happening.

to clarify, the only fluke is Pierre hitting RHP - Mayberry's struggles might not be the norm, but it surely isn't inconceivable that AAAAberry was playing well over his head last season.

Gentlemen, Pete Orr is playing for his baseball life. You can ride that wave until emotion and passion are overcome by ability and talent. Teams can win some games with peoples peaks, thats what we pay a manager to identify. I applaud the veteran as he is sucessful for the moment. He is a professional ballplayer and is working feverishly at his trade trying to seize an opportunity.
Vance Worley on the other hand is an extremely talented young pitcher that is ahead of the curve right now. Hitters have adjusted, the film on him shows a 2 seamer that comes back to RH's and busts LH's hands and comes back over the plate throwing it to both sides of the plate on you. He is now throwing a 2 seamer that does not move as much as last years and hitters think it will move out of the zone and it stays. It is comical how many hitters look at strike 3 and some of the credit goes to (ducking right now) Brian Schneider. Worley looks to be delivering the 2 seamer over the top more and a little harder. Vanimal also throws pitches many times that appear to be thrown right down the middle and you have to guess which corner it will dive to (Greg Maddux made a career of that). He is a starter with the adreneline rushes of a closer. The man is entertaining on the hill.
Remember people you are here because you are Fans. Enjoy the game, identify the positives and don't take it too seriously. It's a 162 game marathon. It is a great show and we are all subscribers.

I fell asleep when the game was 4-1 and was pleasantly surprise to see they score 4 more. I was fully expecting to wake up to a 4-3 win or a 5-4 loss.

Tonight's game is pretty big if you ask me. I don't care who the teams were and what the pitching match-ups were, finishing a 10 game west coast trip at 5-5 should be considered a positive.

***Worley looks to be delivering the 2 seamer over the top more and a little harder.***

He is...he's sitting 91-93 and touching 94 with it now.

Truth be told, I can only watch 1 more late night game or I'll be DL'd (dead livered).

57% of Worley's strikeouts are strike 3 looking. I don't know why you wouldn't expect success. I don't think it's that worley has to prove he can hang, it's the oppostie, I'm confident until he proves he can't. Will he get hit around some, sure, so does cliff lee on occassion, another strike thrower, high strikeout guy.

First off let me say that this is the blog I'd like to call home from here on out. I completely forgot about this place after dropping a few posts here and there in recent years. I remember the knowledge being vast here and well grounded.

As for last night....let's hope that this can be a turning point for this team. As some have said above you have to ride the Orr wave for now. I wonder if he can play any 3B? It's pretty sad that I am clamoring for more PT for Pete Orr but these are the breaks when your alternative at 3B (aside from Wigginton) is an eroding corpse.

Worley really does seem to be legit now. The D-Backs are without some big bats but he really toughed it out last night and was pinched a little and still managed to get guys looking. He has really rounded out his secondary pitches. As painful as it is to watch this team hit 99% of the time it would really be a dilemma dealing a kid like Worley for a bat but this could be the decision RA Jr. is faced with.

I wonder if the Vance Worley IronPigs bobblehead will have him wearing fogged up glasses.

I really think MLB should dig a little deeper into Angel Hernandez's background. My man has been downright awful. Every game I've ever watched he makes sure that his presence is felt, be it calling balks out of his jurisdiction or calls like last night and Monday. Does this guy have any blood relation to Donaghy? Or is he legally blind?

Clout: I'm confused. You say BAP is obsessed with strikeouts, but then seem to say that isn't what Schwimmer's thing is.

That's odd because being able to get a strikeout is sort of the only thing he's good for. He has a career 11.9 K/9 in the minors, and as BAP points out, even in limited time in the majors has 16 Ks in 14 IP. If you're going to say anything about Schwimmer, it sort of has to concern his ability to get strikeouts. No?

Wow. A sensible comment from mr. blue. I'm thinking he stumbled into the wrong blog.

I'd like to get a feel for something. If I asked most people the following question, what is the consensus answer:

Has Freddy Galvis been a sufficiently good hitter so far this year?

Pete Orr stinks but you have to play him every now and then while giving the regulars a rest.

Stunned if he is in the lineup again today with Galvis at SS while JRoll sits. The time to sit JRoll would have been this weekend in SD on Sat. JRoll won't be out with an off-day tomorrow.

Polanco will also be penciled into the lineup in the #2 spot today spraying grounders and weak pops across the field.

@Jack....I think Galvis is as advertised with the bat. He runs into one every so often but for the most part he just isn't going to wow you with the bat. His glove has been something else and he is a very good instinctual fielder.

@MG....if Polly is hitting 2 today I will shake every single baby within a 5 mile radius of me. Obviously Orr isn't a worldbeater but I'd throw him at 3rd and deal with any possibly fielding hiccups. We all know Wigginton isn't Brooks Robinson anyway.

Jimmy looks pretty bad right now - can't hurt to use Galvis/SS and Orr/2B as others have mentioned for today. Seems like he could use a day off.

Also, Nix needs to get LF starts vs. RHP. He's one of the few guys we have healthy that has pop in his bat.

repost:

Vic is a .296/.370/.510 hitter right handed and .274/.336/.412 left handed for his career.

And its gotten more and more drastic as the years have gone on.

Career OPS difference: .132
2009 OPS difference: .057
2010 OPS difference: .240
2011 OPS difference: .255
2012 OPS difference: .471**

**yea yea small sample size

Iorecore: Victorino is our best hitter against lefty pitchers. He's a mediocre hitter against righty pitchers.

@lorecore...what are you suggesting with those #s? Just pointing out the difference in pop? You can't be suggesting Shane play less vs RHP are you?

awh sez about Vance Worley: "because we're complimenting him he'll probably suffer from the BL Reverse Jinx and get shelled his next time out."

That's not the reverse jinx, that's the ol' regular jinx

I take it Contreras gave up those 3 runs in the 7th?

Good to let him struggle when it didn't cost us, learn what he does - or does not - have these days.

I'm pleased with Worley. And thrilled with the runs! Will we see an offensive upswing for a little while? I sure hope so.

"
I second lorecore's ripping on Rollins last night for his selfish play with a guy on 3rd and 1 out. He's really pressing right now. Could it be that he is completely out of place in the #3 spot?

Posted by: Iceman"


Iceman, yes. I posted to that effect earlier in the season.

Jimmy, IMO, based on historical performance, ought to hit in either the 1-hole or 6-hole. (SSS)

I'm suggesting he stops hitting LHP period.

typo - i mean, he should stop switch hitting and just go righty

@Jack: Compared to what the alternative would have been(mini-mart), yes, galvis has been an acceptable hitter so far this year. He can lay down a bunt, he knows to swing at, and make contact with a fastball over the plate. That make his better than some of the "better" hitters on this team right now *cough* rollins *cough*

@lorecore...I gotcha...yeah that could be beneficial for him. I don't know what it is about him from the left side and what causes his front side to open so drastically and quickly. I am guessing it could do with the fact that hitting lefty his bottom hand is obviously his dominant one and that's pulling him through the zone quicker.

Jack: Depends on what you mean by sufficiently good. I don't think there are enough superlatives for his defense. His offense has been terrible, but I don't think his offense has been as bad as his defense has been good, making him a positive-WAR player. I can't expect much more from someone who really should be in AAA right now.

To my eyes, it's looked like he's hit the ball harder than a .234 BABIP; I expect that number to increase going forward. The most obvious negative is the 3.3% walk rate, which is absurd for an 8-hole hitter, but isn't far from what he's done in the minor leagues. If he doesn't learn the strike zone, this is probably his peak: a better-glove John McDonald.

Short answer: yes, I think Galvis has been a sufficiently good hitter, in that he hasn't been terrible enough to offset his terrific defense.

Its very hard to walk at a good rate when you pose almost 0 threat to hit the ball deep.

Looking at more game info since I fell asleep and missed it - Zagurski pitched 2 inning and only allowed a solo HR to Vic? Zagurski? If we couldn't hit him, our hitting woes haven't ended yet, it seems to me.

Still, a great win for the Phillies. Much needed.

Let's hope they give Cole some run support today, too. A .500 road trip would be decent, and downright uplifting to enjoy a few solid Ws after a some horrendous Ls.

"BAP, like most here, is totally obsessed with strikeouts and velocity when it comes to pitching."

You evidently have me confused for some other poster. I'm not obsessed by velocity at all and tend to think it's overrated (although I do think a drop in velocity is often a sign of an injury).

Strikeouts are another story. I do think strikeout ability is a major plus -- especially for relievers, who often have to pitch with men on base (both because of circumstances out of their control, and because relievers tend to put more men on base than starters). However, you don't need a 98 MPH fastball to strike people out. A guy like Bastardo, for instance, can still pile up the strikeouts with a 91 MPH fastball. So, for that matter, can Schwimer. Now, if only he can keep the walk rate down.

Gbrett: true, they did not score off Zags, but almost every out was a rope line drive to the LF....altho Thome's dumbass struck out and i think AAAABerry popped out to 1B...again.

Galvis doesn't walk but this entire team doesn't.

"Has Freddy Galvis been a sufficiently good hitter so far this year?"

Sufficiently good for what? Sufficiently good for a utility infielder? I would say yes, but barely -- and only because of the very low offensive standards for utility infielders, and because he brings such immense defensive value. But sufficiently good to be our starting 2nd baseman if Utey's out for the year? I don't even see any room for debate on that question. No, a .571 OPS (.45 points lower than Pete Orr's career OPS) is not nearly sufficiently good. Nor is it good enough to warrant discussion about his being our starting SS next year.

Galvis has gotten a pass on Beerleaguer -- and rightly so -- because he has been sensational on defense, and because he's a rookie & the hope is that his bat will improve. But the question was whether he has been sufficiently good so far, and the answer to that is: not even close.

Thanks for the info, lorecore. Glad they at least drove some balls off Zags. What does it say about Thome, striking out against him - combined with the lack of success he's had to date? I still like the idea of playing him as much as possible for a while to see whether he can get out of this season-starting funk, or whether it's not just a funk.

Cholly clearly doesn't like to use bench guys and prefers to march out his regulars with a set lineup card as much as possible.

Orr isn't a good player. Neither is Schneider. Still have to use them and give your regulars a bit of a rest every now and then especially with several aging players on this team.

Starting Orr vs. a finesse RHP is a good time to play him. Especially since Galvis still is struggling to hit decent offspeed stuff from RHP.

Ditto Schneider when Worley starts especially if there is a RHP pitcher on the mound.

Chooch isn't a guy who can catch 140-145 G. Never done that before and is not going to suddenly start at age 33. At best, he holds up physically with diminishing offensive numbers. At worst, he ends up on the DL for a while.

JRoll also isn't a guy who is capable of playing 150-155 G anymore. Not a certainty he gets injured but I bet it certainly ups the odds a bit of him at some point coming up with a leg injury & ending up on the DL.

Bench may suck but you still have to use them. Cholly's job to place them in spots where they might be expected to give you some production like he did with Orr/Schneider last night.

I know Galvis hasn't been a great hitter, but we didn't expect anything of him in that department, based on reports. And didn't he bypass AAA?

On the other hand, he's provided some excitement and energy. At least for me - and I think even in the dugout. I believe Charlie commented on that. And for a team that's been so...blah!...that rookie energy (mostly his play in the field) has been most welcome.

Collmenter went through the lineup 3 times while Zags only did once.

The fact that Jim Thome's only AB was vs Zags is a crime. Nix in LF and Thome at 1B would have destroyed him, and if Thome couldnt hit him then you really know he is in a world of trouble.

From Dave Murphy's blog:

The Phillies line-up doesn't take many strikes. Actually, it doesn't take many pitches, period. Phillies hitters have seen an average of 3.66 pitchers per plate appearance this season, the lowest average in the NL. They have swung at 48 percent of the pitches they have seen, the second-highest ratio in the NL. If the Phillies' approach sometimes feels formulaic -- take the first pitch, just because, and then release the hounds -- the numbers support that notion. They've swung at only 23 percent of first pitches this season, tied for 14th in the NL. But after the first pitch, they aren't exactly discerning. In fact, as you can see in the table below, Phillies hitters see three-ball counts less often than any other team in the league. And when they do get a three-ball count, they take ball four less often than all but one other team. In both cases, the team next to them in the standings is the Pirates, which is also the only team that has scored less runs than them. Coincidence? You decide.

"To my eyes, it's looked like he's hit the ball harder than a .234 BABIP; I expect that number to increase going forward."

My eyes say the same. His average should probably be a little higher, based on how he has hit the ball. Long-term, though, he would be much better off if he quit swinging for the fences and started trying to just hit singles back over the middle. He would also be much better off if he became a little more selective. A decent walk rate would do wonders for Galvis, in terms of increasing his overall value.

Galvis has gotten a free pass in large because his defense has tremendous at 2B.

He's had a poor road trip offensively though.

6-28 (.214) with 2 XBH (2 doubles) with 1 BB and 4 Ks.

.214/.241/.286 (.523 OPS)

Has Galvis really provided energy/excitement? Defensively you could argue that. Offensively he has zero SBs this year & just 5 XBHs. Also hit into 4 GDP already.

Also defensively Thome at 1B isn't that much worse than Nix - and Nix upgrades Pierre in LF, so it makes even more sense.

Charlie needs to look ahead and pick his spots to get Thome and Nix starts vs finesse righties if he wants to properly utilize what he's got.

For what it's worth April is notoriously Thome's worst month although I'm in the camp that he is most likely done.

"Galvis has gotten a free pass in large because his defense has tremendous at 2B."

He's gotten a free pass because it's a crime he was put into this position in the first place.

I said this the other night, but it seems like he's saved a ton of runs with glove making big plays in key moments so far this year. That alone is 'sufficient,' leaving aside his offense, which has been predictably lousy.

@GBrettfan re: Murphy post...

This team is not patient at all...it was a gripe even when the big dogs were in the lineup. RA Jr. fed us the bs line that he really thought these guys could change their approach. Not likely. This is an aging team that is set in its ways. J-Roll will always be J-Roll. The only way to change the approach is to change the pieces. I love Jimmy and really wanted him back, mainly for defensive purposes and leadership but if he continues this offensive backslide on an already offensively challenged team then we are going to have big problems in not only 2012 but 2013 and 2014 as well.

I was glad to see them hit Collmenter and pick up the win including a key contribution by Orr. Going to need some of that luck to pick up wins for the interim with this lineup.

It was a bit disconcerting to see how 2 of the geriatrics on this team looked. Contreras had nothing. No control or no velocity (topping out at 90 MPH on his 4-seam fastball). Not a good sign of how dead his arm looked after pitching the night before. He was averaging 91-92 the night before and hit 93.

Given Stutes' health concerns with the shoulder, Herndon being Herndon, and how creaky Contreras has looked, imagine the Phils are going to end up with a few of their younger arms getting try outs with the big league club including De Fratus and even Aumont at some point this year.

Thome just looked spellbound last night at the plate vs. Zagurski. Dropped to 0-8 with 6 Ks on the year as a PH. Slider, slider, slider, and then Thome was really behind on a 93 MPH fastball on the inner part of the plate that was up & hittable.

Tough job to PH but teams are going after Thome starting him with offspeed stuff down or away in the zone that he has trouble with then dusting him with a fastball that he either watches or is really behind on. Thome gets behind on that first pitch an behind in the count he looks like he is in a world of trouble.

Its very hard to walk at a good rate when you pose almost 0 threat to hit the ball deep.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 10:24 AM

This is true: looking at the BB% leaderboard from 2011, it's full of power hitters with a couple excellent-eye non-power hitters mixed in the top 20 (Abreu, Fowler). I don't expect an elite walk rate out of Galvis.

However, if Galvis '12 was a qualified hitter in '11, his 3.3% walk rate would be 144th out of 146, ahead of only notorious hackers Vladimir Guerrero and Yuniesky Betancourt. That is dreadful. Again, his defense is off-the-charts, so he still has some value, but his offense will never be better than well-below-average unless his eye improves (and I don't think there are many cases of bad-eye young players improving their pitch-selection at the MLB level).

Good Morning from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport!

Last night was fun. A win is a win.

I hope Conterras can pull it back together. I am a fan.

So fun to see Vance Worley, and Papelbon, too. Qualls is doing well too- I don't feel nervous when he comes out of the bullpen.

Galvis is still in the majors, so I guess he is hitting well enough.

Have a great day.

With Pence in the lineup, they aren't the worst lineup in MLB. Without him, they are and are weaker than even the A's or Pirates.

Its a bad offensive team all around. Starting pitching though is so good that they can keep afloat until they potentially get back Howard/Utley hopefully in June.

Losing Lee though was huge because the dropoff from him to KK is notable. KK simply isn't going to have many starts where he gives up 2 R or less. Serviceable back-end starter in the NL but that is about it.

I agree with Iceman re: Galvis' "free pass". I think most here were realistic with their expectations about Galvis: terrible offense, and a rocky adjustment period at second base.

His offense has met expectations, but his defense has wildly exceeded expectations. With so few Phillies exceeding expectations, it seems weird to pick on one who is.

KK got wins in the past as a starter because he benefitted from this team being able to hit (see: pre 2010 offense). Now that he absolutely needs to be perfect or damn near it he isn't going to help this club.

As for Thome and the above commentary on his AB last night and in general this year....when has he ever hit sliders? Even during his first turn here in Philly he struck out often...it's just that now the Ks will be harder to swallow in key spots as opposed to being stretched out over a whole year as a starter.

Galvis has shown so far he has a MLB career ahead of him as a defensive player especially with how he has handed 2B so far.

Offensively, he has been about what you would expect with an OPS below .600 (I thought it would end up below .550 when all is said and done) with an average slightly above the Mendoza line.

BAP is right though that is BABIP is low at .234 and he has been a little unlucky. He is only averaging 3.52 P/PA which is kind of low though and has really ever sees a 2-0 or better count (only 5 ABs so far this year)

In regards to the bullpen concerns I definitely feel them. The ripple effect of a shaky pen and an offense that can't score on the top of this rotation really worries me. I am afraid that we are going to see Charlie overextending these aces because of these 2 factors and then before we know it one of them could land on the DL (for a longer stint) and then we are really screwed.

Thome hits righties much better than he hits lefties, but he is not bad against lefties. In fact, there is not much difference between Wigginton and Thome against lefties. Thome also hits lefties as well as Nix hits righties. Only Mayberry is significantly better than Thome against lefties.

Thome should play as often as he is physically capable of playing.

Having seen Schwimer pitch recently in Allentown, I wonder if Stutes might have a long wait, even after his DL stint, before getting back onto the MLB roster.

I know it's cherry picking, but take out Galvis' dreadful opening series with the Bucs and his numbers look quite a bit more respectable.

.255/.271/.404

Still not great by any means, but it's playable, and I'm willing to chalk up the opening series to nerves from making his debut, and finally settling in after that.

I think we'll be lucky if Freddy can ever reliably approach a .300 OBP with his current approach, though.

If Galvis--stellar defense aside--continues to hit .220, how long before the team decides he needs to work on pitch selection and OBP and sends him down for either Fontenot or Blanco? I know we're thinking that Orr should go first, but I just wonder what's best for Galvis.

RE: Thome--I don't think he's cooked (he didn't look out of gas this spring, but maybe that was the competition and the fresh legs) and I'm hoping that he'll be an asset for interleague play. He needs reps and is probably miscast as a pure PH, at least until he can get some regular action and regain his batting eye and feel. I predict a bounceback in May/June. Maybe the bigger problem is counting on him as the lefty power bat off the bench for Sept/Oct when he seems to really struggle in that role.

"Also hit into 4 GDP already."

FWIW: 2 of those were in the 1st game.

"I know it's cherry picking, but take out Galvis' dreadful opening series with the Bucs and his numbers look quite a bit more respectable: .255/.271/.404"

I actually agree with your overall point. He looked completely awful in that first series & has held his own since then. But prepare yourself to be mercilessly beaten up for using gerrymandered sub-samples within an already too-small sample.

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