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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

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Good choices, but then I'm probably the only guy on here that likes Pete Orr.

Now that Pete Orr has made the roster, I feel much better about our offense.

Seriously, what gives? We've now filled three of our five bench spots with players who are unambiguously worse than the guy who got sent to AAA.

Still better than Mini-Mart

When Stutes is ready does Savery go down? Or Hearndon? Or ...

Love the roster! Lets go get 'em!!

(From last thread) Wow, you guys should read the post. I quote from taco pal:

"I think the reason why some get hung up on this is because of the different ways in which offensive and defensive metrics are represented. Since hitting stats aren't positionally adjusted, we all understand that when we need to make a mental adjustment whenever we look at, say, Ryan Howard's BA, HR, wOBA, or wRC+. But defensive stats are already positionally adjusted, so we don't need to make a mental adjustment. If you're +10 runs at 1B, those +10 runs are precisely as valuable as +10 runs from SS or CF. Everyone understands this, but (at least for me) it requires conscious thought to overcome my subconscious autopilot tendency to apply the positional adjustment anyway."

The point is that if someone prevents 10 runs at 1B and someone else prevents 10 runs at CF, they're making the same contribution to the team with respect to run differential. That's indisputable. If you're going to call a metric into question, it should be the metric that's computing runs saved.

A couple comments on Mayberry: 1-I like the guy a lot and hope he makes it as a big time player, 2-A half season of success in MLB means very little and 3-Charlie and the coaches on the ground see far more than we do; if Mayberry ain't playin' a lot, it's for a good reason.

Pete Orr? What happened to Anres Blanco?

Blanco got Schneidered...seems Rube likes familiarity over logic..I like Orr but i thought and from hearing Cholly and ST results Luna would get the nod over Orr...

psst, El Chato, still available

What else does Hector Luna have to do to make the team?

"psst, El Chato, still available"
---
Raul's grandpa, just based on their AAA stats, I honestly don't see the attraction. Jorge Vasquez doesn't look any better than Kevin Frandsen...

AAA stats

Vasquez (age 28-29) 816 PAs, .265/.314/.520 (.834 OPS)

Frandsen (age 23-29) 1531 PAs, .304/.364/.437 (.801 OPS)

When you consider that OPS undervalues OBP, which is more important, they are very similar hitters (I'll concede Vasquez might be slightly better).

And Frandsen has a lot more versatility.

Now, maybe there's a reason Vasquez's AAA stats aren't indicative of what he can do in the majors. I just don't see it.

If someone can explain to me how Ed Barkowits still has a job at philly.com I would appreciate it.

When a guy wwho works for a media outlet can't get a basic, easily referenced fact right he needs to find a new job.

This,

"The Phillies drafted Savery as a first baseman in the 2007 first round."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120404_Savery_makes_Phillies_roster.html

was easily verified here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2007&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&


Pet peeve? Yes. Lazy columnist? Yes.

Sorry, Ed, I typo'd your name. It's "Barkowitz".

If I can get it right, why can't you?

I'm really happy for Savery and really glad he was given a spot on the team, because he is the best choice right now. And I understand I just gave BAP a lecture on significance, etc, and I suppose in the scheme of things it isn't enormously significant.

But can someone explain to me the inclusion of Pete Orr over Hector Luna? I know he is probably just the placeholder for Mini-Mart, but Orr does almost nothing well. At least Luna can hit a little bit and can give you pinch-hitter off the bench that is, you know, more likely to actually get a hit. And when the entire right side of your infield is out for at least two months, and the left side of your infield is fragile...why? Just why?

Orr can fill in at SS in a pinch, not a good SS by any means but can be a stopgap if needed. Luna is regulated to 3B and LF. That's why Orr is in Philly and Luna isn't.

Good for Joe Savery! Yet another guy that will be fun to root for on the roster.

RedBurb- I was unaware of the fact that Luna is now completely incapable of playing SS. From what I've seen of Orr, he is right on the brink of being completely incapable.

did I miss this year's prediction thread or have we not done it yet?

"The point is that if someone prevents 10 runs at 1B and someone else prevents 10 runs at CF, they're making the same contribution to the team with respect to run differential. That's indisputable. If you're going to call a metric into question, it should be the metric that's computing runs saved."

Yes but it is a hell of a lot harder to save 10 runs at a position where there are lot less chances. It is an extreme outlier (and incredibly unlikely) at a position with limited chances that a player can possibly save 10 runs or give up 10 runs.

Average team had 420 chances in CF last year. Only 326 in LF.

SS has 728 and while 3B had only 435. It is why having an above average SS is more important than having an above average 3B. More chances and thus more of an opportunity to save a greater number of runs.

Clout was right.

Guess they feel Orr can more capably fill SS than Luna if necessary because there is no other reason he made the club. Weaker offense & bats LH.

Not exactly like Orr is a good defensive player either at 2B/SS. Only real head scratchier.

Surprised Savery too made it with the cranky shoulder. Hopefully not a case of where he isn't 100%, he tells the staff he is in order to foolishly make the Opening Day roster, and then struggles before going back on the DL.

Congrats to Savery. If there is anyone you should root for in the early going, it has to be him. Literally did everything possible to make a MLB roster team.


Ice - I agree. The team however would rather have the guy who can kind of play the position rather than the guy who can't at all.

If I was a betting man, I would wager that we do see Luna on the big club at some point this year before September.

JBird, I believe tomorrow is Prediction Day.

interesting question: Should Savery be in line for pinch hitting duties before Orr?

I think Orr was picked for his better versatility.

Over the past 3 years, Luna's games by position:

1B 46 in minors,
2B 10 in minors, 1 in majors
SS 1 in minors
3B 221 in minors, 4 in majors

Orr's games by position:

1B: 0
2B: 48 in minors, 47 in majors
SS: 93 in minors
3B: 144 in minors, 7 in majors
OF: 56 in minors, 2 in majors

Luna: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=luna--001hec
Orr: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=orr---001pet

(Orr is the 19th inning closer -- he pitched in 2 games in 2009)

Just read Keith Law's prediction column on ESPN, knowing full well he would be predicting something awful for the Phillies. Of course he did, having us at 88 wins and tied for 2nd with the Marlins (Braves winning the division with 92 wins).

He does then go on to predict Hamels for CY Young (also semi-predicts he signs a 7/150 contract with the Dodgers).

I also recently read the Hunter Pence article in Philadelphia Magazine and in that he talks about how they were on 'cruise control' with how far ahead they were in the division and how that didn't sit well with the team. Looks like they will get there chance to fight for their place in the postseason now that no one sees them as the favorite outside of this town.

Considering Utley's situation is unchanged from this time last year and Pence is replacing Howard's production early in the year I am honestly not that worried. Given that Howard is historically a much superior player later in the year and Pence has had to carry a below average offense the last 3 years, I don't expect a huge drop off.

"Clout was right."


MG, yes, but so was taco pal. You obviously are having trouble understanding the distinction that taco made.

Go back a re-read the thread. Carefully.

It might also help to go over to TGP and read the original.

AL, before anyone gets excised over Law's predictions, what is his track record, i.e. how many of the WS winners did he predict in the last 10 years?

Is there a website anywhere where the pundits' historical accuracy is archived?

AWH: I agree that analysts predictions are not historically correct, or to be used as a barometer for anything. Just passing along in case anyone didn't have Insider and was interested. I think we all know Keith has a history of being down on most things Phillies and that's why I read it just to see how down he was this time around.

He also picked Yu Darvish for AL CY so that was funny.

AL, if you read Jason Stark's prediction, he admits he's been right once in the last twelve years about the WS winner. That's 8%.

I'm curious as to how accurate they are on predicting the teams that make the playoffs.

Keith Law obviously hates the Phillies because ... Well, I can't think of a reason, but it must be true!

"Someone said something I don't agree with. Waaaaaaaaah."

That's what you all sound like when you complain that people in the media who make predictions that don't favor the Phillies must have some sort of bias against them. It's just juvenile.

awh - He is saying that saying 10 runs doesn't matter where you do. Fine. It is just much harder to do that at a position where you have nearly 50% less opportunities to do that.

You truly need to play exceptional defense at a position with limited chances to do that. Why is it a somewhat loaded statement.

I still am looking forward to when more of the data from Field f/x becomes publicly available. Teams have been incredibly resistant so far to release it & I haven't heard if there are any plans from MLB/Sportsvision to make it part of MLB.com like Pitch f/x has become a staple.

I am sure there are teams that have already devised better methods or looking at ways to score defense. Just need a few more years of Field f/x to validate their assumptions.

Jack: Spoken like someone who doesn't favor the Phillies.


I don't think Law is as opposed to the Phillies as many do but I think it is a little silly to pretend that people in the media don't have biases when they write. It is very possible that Law has some bias against the Phillies that show up in some underlying fashion during his writing.

TTI: First, I'm going to ignore the first part of your post because as I've pointed out many times, it's beyond absurd to think that I've posted here for 5 years but am not actually a Phillies fan. That's so stupid that even you can't hold that sort of position, I would hope.

Second, if a writers job is to write about all baseball teams, I sort of assume it isn't that hard to just write about all baseball teams. People who see bias in others say more about themselves than the others--there has been plenty of times when Law has written positive things about the Phillies, but those get ignored because of people's confirmation biases.

Finally, why do people care at all? How does it affect your life in any way who a panel of ESPN experts pick before the season starts? I've simply never understood this. If 50 out of 50 experts picked the Phillies to finish last, I could honestly care less. If you feel the need to somehow refute someone's "expert" credentials who is just a media personality, you have way too much time on your hands and need something to do with your life. They get paid to make opinions, not to be right. If you care about them, they're doing their job.

Jack: Spoken like someone who doesn't favor the Phillies.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Wednesday, April 04, 2012 at 09:43 AM

Haha, if Jack doesn't favor the Phillies, then his hours of following, researching, studying and posting about the team has to be one of the weirdest clinical obsessions known to man.

They get paid to make opinions, not to be right. If you care about them, they're doing their job.

Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, April 04, 2012 at 09:49 AM

This is someone who gets it.

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