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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

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6 years, $126 Million

30% confident

why would hamels get less than cliff lee money? WS title, WS MVP, perennial cy-young numbers (except 09), age etc...

I cannot comprehend any reason why the Phillies would not want to lock up Hamels. That being said, I'm not really sure I like it that it hasn't happened yet. Every day that passes, I think the odds get a bit lower he comes back next year. My big question now isn't so much if he signs up here or not. It's who takes his place should he choose not to? All the names I come up with are nowhere near Hamels. There won't be a Papelbon for Madson situation here. If we lose Hamels, he's replaced by someone who is not as good. To me that's unacceptable.

I'll guess 5 yrs/$120 million, Dodgers or Yankees, & 3 ... as in, he's not comin' back.

6 years, $135 mil... 7.5 out of ten it's with the Phils. What could all that impending TV money be good for if not this contact?

*contract

Hamels, barring injury, will get at least 5yrs/$120MM on the open market, and if he is smart, 5 years is all he should ask for.

Why?

Because he'd get another big payday on a 3 - 5 year deal later on.

I'm 50/50 on the 'confidence' level. The Phillies will have the money to pay him. But will they CHOOSE to pay him?

I suspect a lot may have to do with factors OTHER than Hamels and his performance, and that may be what the Phillies are waiting to find out.

Hamels stays in Philadelphia. If they let him walk then RAJ is an idiot. Cole is the past and the future of our rotation. He brought a championship to this ball club and to this city. Letting him walk would be a tragedy and I personally would lose faith in our ball club.

I'm confident the Phillies organization is smart and their public comments about wanting him to stay are sincere.

He's here to stay and signs for 5 yrs/$125 million.

If the Phils are dipping into the future TV contract money, 5/$125M sounds right.

It sounds as if it's Rube's decision to make, as Cole says he wants to be back. If Cole's not back, Rube is going to have a hard time going out to eat in Philly.

Considering RAJ's affinity for making it a big deal, I put it at a 7 confidence level. If/when it happens, you can bet RAJ will be smugger than the smuggiest smug that ever smugged.

6/$136. 2.

Don't know if you saw this, but this is not Juan Pierre throwing:

http://deadspin.com/5902657/rick-ankiel-threw-a-strike-from-center-field

"If Cole's not back, Rube is going to have a hard time going out to eat in Philly."


tru dat.

Keep in mind the Phils greatest strength in the minors is pitching. It is position players that the Phillies lack, looking 2-3 years down the road.

NEPP, G'Town, noname: What are you pessimistic about in this case? Front office willingness to pay? Hamels' desire to stay? The continued existence of life on earth beyond next week? All of the above?

I kinda feel like it's position players the Phillies lack right now.

I'd say I'm a 6 or 7.

TPoT: My feeling is that Hamels will take the best deal offered, & I don't believe the Phillies will be the high bidder. And I wouldn't hold that against either side, by the way.

signing cole: $120 mil
years: 6
confidence level: 4


Last thread: priceless


If you think the fans were upset when they let Lee go, you ain't seen nothin yet. They've got to find a way. Period. Future TV money or John Middleton coughs it up or whatever. This guy is a Phillie for life in my mind. It wouldn't be quite like the Sox dealing away the Bambino, but it would be remembered in Philly in a roughly similar way, assuming of course that Cole has a lot of success after leaving here.

Clout: Off-topic slightly, but I've always thought it might be smart of a GM with the money to be a FA player to draft either pitchers or position guys at a 2-to-1 (or higher) ratio and just always have that part of the team be the homegrown strength of the system while buying FA fill-ins or trading redundant pieces for the other side of the ball.

I know this is how some farm systems develop in practice, but has it ever been tried as an explicit strategy?

***My feeling is that Hamels will take the best deal offered, & I don't believe the Phillies will be the high bidder. And I wouldn't hold that against either side, by the way.***

Pretty much this. I could see the BoSox, Dodgers or Yankees making a massive run at Cole. I could see the Nats making a run too.

Rube will have to pay top dollar and given the massive question marks in the lineup, he might not be able/willing to do that.

G'Town: I never got the feeling Cole as that much of a mercenary; he seems sincere when he professes his desire to stay (though not to the extent Shane does; he actually seems upset at the thought of leaving).

Plus, wouldn't you want to spend the next half-decade pitching with Lee and Doc if you're him? Their presence seems to have only made him better...

If there's any reason to feel especially optimistic, RAJ (and the Phils FO as a whole for the last few years) is MUCH more likely to err on the side of giving a guy too much (in the way of $/years), than he is to let someone walk prematurely.

Cliff Lee trade aside (and that was him controlling the situation), I can't think of a recent example where they had someone still in their prime and let them go. They're much more likely to pay him way too much for 2 years too long.

clout, I thought about that - the strength of the minor league system.

But what are the odds that any of them become as accomplished as Hamels, and can anchor a rotation the way Hamels can?

I should have noted in my last comment *Ryan Madson aside*

TPoT: All valid points, but it's also worth considering how Hamels has already achieved practically everything (save winning a Cy Young) that he can in Philly, & that the team's long term commitment to Halladay & Lee will essentially relegate Cole to a middle of the rotation guy even though he's in the prime of his career.

I don't think I'd see it so much as a mercenary decision as one that cashes in on what will perhaps prove Hamels' best opportunity for a huge payday, & give him a chance to be the number one guy on another team. That's purely speculation on my part, of course, but it doesn't feel out of the realm of potential reality.

This is not Juan Pierre in the OF either:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/17/mlb-overrules-official-scorer-gives-delmon-young-error/


Hilarious. I cannot imagine the chatter on this board if a Phillies OF did that.

awh, if that's not an error, I don't know what it takes to make one nowadays. Some of these "triples" and "inside the park HR's" are a bit liberal.

BTW, can I use that as Exhibit B in my "how bad can Brown's defense be?" argument (after Aubrey Huff getting a start in LF last night)?

And the first video you posted reminded me of a similar Bo Jackson highlight. What an arm.

It seems as if Vic does that all of the time, only he usually ends up making the catch.

awh, you inspired me to look for some Bo highlights (as hard as any MLB video is to find). This pretty much sums it up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-1hPkLKeQ

Were I Cole, I'd subjugate my ego to stay. Where else would he be the number 3 starter? Nowhere. And that's a nice spot to be in. Every start isn't life and death because you have two other stoppers. And yet, you have a great chance of winning.

Seems like a great situation as long as Rube comes up with the money.

And as long as Rube comes up with some offense somewhere.

Victorino (CF), Polanco (3B), Rollins (SS), Pence (RF), Wigginton (1B), Mayberry (LF), Ruiz (C), Galvis (2B), Blanton (P).

Meh.

Someone mentioned Dr. Mike Marshall and the incredible number of relief innings he threw back in the old days. The fact that he did some truly amazing things makes me wonder why his version of pitching mechanics is so universally reviled by major league GMs. What he teaches makes perfect anatomical and kinesiological sense.

If teams are really paying pitchers some huge amount of money to sit on the DL, it is mind boggling why they would relegate his methods to nowheresville.

6yr/$140, $10 of which is a buyout for his $25M option in year 7.

Charlie continues to hit Polanco second based on what? I simply can't understand it. Polly was a really good player and I'm a big fan of his. But his bat is clearly not that of a number two hitter. Rollins leadoff and Vic number two is the best use of these bats. Clearly. Pence three. And the rest could basically go in a hat to be plucked at random.

I can see Hamels resigning here. It will be a 1 day contract when he hangs up his Hello Kitty backpack with the Angels.

As his biggest preseason critic, and as much as it pains me to say it, Manuel could use Galvis in the two-hole until his bat cools down and I'd be okay with that...

Phils are dogs for the first time all year, +120 with a o/u at 6.5 Curiously low o/u with Blanton and Bumgarner on the mound, since Doc and Lincecum were just at 6.

Phillies really need Mayberry and Victorino to get back to their 2011 vs LHP numbers if we want to see consistent offense night in and out, especially with a starter like Bumgarner bringing a platoon split of .100 OPS for his career.

lorecore, I caught that low o/u, too. Let's just say I'll be very disappointed if it turns out to be a pitcher's dual tonight.

Moyer and the Rockies are -120 tonight against San Diego.

-120 reads like a conservative estimate of how many runs the Phillies will score tonight.

"Someone mentioned Dr. Mike Marshall and the incredible number of relief innings he threw back in the old days. The fact that he did some truly amazing things makes me wonder why his version of pitching mechanics is so universally reviled by major league GMs. What he teaches makes perfect anatomical and kinesiological sense.

If teams are really paying pitchers some huge amount of money to sit on the DL, it is mind boggling why they would relegate his methods to nowheresville."


smitty, check out this web link:

How A Career Ends: Mike Marshall, Ph.D., The Outcast Screwballer Turned Outcast Pitching Coach


I cannot see Cole staying. He is fortunate to have his accomplishments, at his age, and not many can say that they are World Series MVP's, regardless of throwing side.

I don't think there's ever been a stronger huge money free agency case, with exception to Kershaw, who will certainly use Cole's contract/numbers in his future negotiations. While I'm sure he's happy to be the undisputed best #3 pitcher in the MLB, he's not going to do it for less than $20MM/season, seeing as Cain and Verlander get that much.

Considering that San Francisco has Zito coming off the books in 2013 making $19-20MM/season, and they've got Bumgarner and Cain locked up, and with Lincecum hitting FA shortly, they could afford and utilize Cole to supplant or support Lincecum, who is also hitting FA in 2014 himself.

Talking about locking up, just got my tickets for Friday night, and will see Cole up and close in Sec101.

Willard: Really? I read that the opposite way. If you were expecting a 7.5 or so, and it ends up being 6.5 -- doesnt that make you think that vegas is "baiting" in your OVER bet?

I would ride the under just based on the line itself, which is reinforced by the two crappy offenses in a pitchers park.

Phillies will ink Hamels.

Book it.

sdphillie: congrats on 101, only sat there once before and loved it. Heckling Geoff Geary with the Astros without even leaving my seat was icing on the cake.

sdphillie, I'll be there, too - section 107. May even break out the "Should of kept Pedro" shirsey for the occasion.

lorecore, I suppose you could look at it as a bait bet. I'm fairly comfortable on the over, due to two primary considerations - Joe Blanton and the bullpens for both teams. Just feels like one of those games where there's a 4 or 5 run inning at some point. And the Phils are at least putting wood on the ball (albeit "small ball" wood).

lore: I've got some friends in good places, usually there or 103, and these guys have had them since the 70s.

I have great luck grabbing Cole's starts, too, current lineup vs. Cole:

(hopefully formatting stays)

Hitter ---------AVG----AB------HR------RBI
Yonder Alonso .000 2 0 0
John Baker .000 6 0 0
Jason Bartlett .143 7 0 0
Chris Denorfia .000 5 0 0
Jesus Guzman .000 3 0 0
Chase Headley .211 19 0 2
Jeremy Hermida .250 16 1 1
Orlando Hudson .167 18 0 0
Nick Hundley .200 5 1 2
Mark Kotsay .250 4 0 1
Cameron Maybin .316 19 0 0
Andy Parrino - - - -
Will Venable .200 5 0 0

Not so much just the performance vs. Cole, but that lineup is effing terrible. Now I see why a 49 year old soft tosser is favored tonight...

Do they pull a sign Cole, trade Lee?

The idea of moving Polanco out of the 2-hole is a good one.

The idea of replacing him with Galvis there is not.

BB, now that you mention it, our farm system is looking a little thin...

If anyone is scoring at home, Josh Willingham now has the same number of HR's as the entire Phillies roster. Though, to be fair, he has played one additional game.

If it was the only way to sign Cole, I would trade Lee.

It is funny to think of the absolute vilification that RAJ got for trading Lee (which, of course, got much louder when he performed so well after getting traded) as people are now willing to let him go to ink Hamels.

Remember when Lee was C____ L_____?

Of course, a couple of stellar games from Lee, and the flying fickle fingers of Phillies fandom will have Lee as tradable once again.

Even though I am invested in several Lee shirts, I too would promote the old "Trade Lee and get the other ace" move that Rube has patented.

er... should have been "well have Lee as UNtradable once again."

lorecore's closest to what I believe; Cole's getting 7/$185mm from somebody. It's my guess that the Dodgers have that as "walking 'round money".

RAJ must wake up in cold sweats with the knowledge his #3 and #4 blocks of granite got their tickets punched 5 years early. Face it fellers; Cole is a goner. That near $200mm will be needed to generate O-fence. Which puts butts in the seats a hell of a lot more effectively than Mr. Hamels.

Conlin did not call the "Bank" "Money Pit" for no good reason. Cole's playing out the string.

Lee isn't goin to be traded. Called no trade clause. Cole will be gone. And hopefully we can plug third base and whatever with all the money coming off books.

There are zero FA 3B in 2013.

I think the dollar amount will be different for Hamels if he reaches free agency, because of the heavy hitters (Yankees, Boston, LA) are going to blow him out of the water with CC Sabathia money. I have no idea what Hamels is asking for now, but my guess is the sticking point is the years and not the dollars.

Anyway, as of right now, I bet 5/125 or 6/138 would get it done. In free agency, he will get more than that. It would be a mistake to let it get to that point.

As for certainty, I really don't know what to make of the competency of the FO anymore. If you asked me in February, I would have said there was absolutely no way they'd be asleep at the wheel on the Utley thing again, and lo and behold they were. Granted, it's a different situation with different dynamics, but I have a similar feeling regarding any reluctance they have towards signing Hamels. I echo everything 3r0ck said in his 5:23PM post. It would contradict everything this ownership has shown up to this point that they are willing to spend on a winning ballclub. This is the only piece they currently have under team control that is entering his prime and could have over a decade of top-quality productivity left in him. If you let him walk while you have an exclusive chance to negotiate with and sign him, you are failing your franchise and signaling to your fans that they should be prepared to again enter the dark ages of Phillies baseball in the near future. And with a TV deal on the horizon, I can't imagine they would be stupid enough to let him walk. They can't be that stupid, right?

I'll put my certainty level at an 8.

One longshot for them to consider would be Josh Hamilton. Let Hamels and Vic walk, sign Hamilton and a 2nd tier FA SP.

That would help out the offense significantly by giving us a middle of the order bat.

NEPP -- Josh Hamilton has huge issues. Whatever's left of the 'Gang of Six' will not buy in to those demons (IMHO).

I dont think it would happen either...for a lot of reasons. I wouldn't want him either way though as he's a ticking time bomb.

Not so sure rube would see any blowback from not signing Hamels, at least as far the casual/majority fan base goes.

Hamels, on the hand, will be forever rued as a prissy-boy, West Coast-loving, money-grubbing traitor, FanSince09 style, but for real.

NEPP, I agree on Hamilton's talent, but he's a walking time bomb.

Lot of talent - lot of risk.

***Not so sure rube would see any blowback from not signing Hamels, at least as far the casual/majority fan base goes***

Every single casual/non-crazy post on the internet type fan has said they will hate Rube forever if he doesnt bring Hamels back.

Regardless of what WIP says, Hamels is pretty beloved in Philly.

hook: Lee has "limited no-trade protection" whatever that means.

My guess is we sign Hamels and the deal is heavily backloaded.

That's of course if you listen enough between the hoagie contests, stripper visits, movie reviews and the bench players interviews.

Look at Werth. He's not exactly well-received here. You don't think that if Hamels signs elsewhere, we won't also hear 'We offered 5/20 and he turned it down!' from the front office?

Werth isn't a homegrown WS MVP pitcher.

Slight difference.

That's Lidgetastic!!!

Gio with back to back 7IP 2H performances after a short first outing.

I love the Nats playing well right now... the bandwagon will be nice and full when it runs off the road by the end of the year.

For Hamels to get overpaid on the same level of Werth, it'd be around a 12yr/$350M deal.

Anyone have any doubt that Gio is going to murder us for the next five years?

You're right about that. I suppose I've just steeled myself far in advance for that first person to say a bad word about Hamels if he does sign elsewhere. (I have a stone cold death stare. Man should be untouchable, free agency be damned.)

Hamels returns is a five

If I'm Hamels though i bolt for greener pastures with brighter futures...

Moyer is rocking it through 4 IP.

Jamie Moyer is winning so far. Maybe this will finally be his night.

He's finally getting some run support too.

Walking the 8 hole hitter to get to Moyer.

Big Mistake...HUGE.

iceman- just think -

gio was in the phillies farm system -- just about 4 -5 yrs ago, it's probably Gillick's worst trade as Phil GM

Floyd + Gio (as a throw in) to the Chisox for Freddy - limp arm - Garcia ( 1-5) & paid 10 million

imagine - that 1 arm to the phillies rotation: doc, cliff, cole, gio, and worley

oh well...

The only hope we have and this is very far fetched. Repeat far fetched. Is that wright gets traded and then declines option out of his contract and become a free agent. There is def no third basemen studs out there. Gonna have to really work now rube. I would love Hamilton but is agreement with demons. Lots of CF and starting pitchers next yr. So pcs will be out there, but lots will happen between now and then. Just know for a fact Cole will not be back. Yanks are gonna back the truck up in newtown square and leave it there. What's the limited trade clause on cliff?

be creative:

why not give hamels a stake in the ball club in lieu of an extra long contract?

give him a 5 yr 20m per & a 4% stake in the club- worth now $723 million dollars
4% now worth almost 29 mill

http://rittenhoused.com/2012/03/23/surprise-surprise-forbes-says-the-philadelphia-phillies-are-worth-a-lot-of-money/
/

that might be an interesting alternative


Moyer looks good in that Rockies uni.

I really hope he gets the win tonight. Such a great story.

$130M

Yo, newer thread

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