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Tuesday, April 17, 2012


Jack, my bet is that you and I don't really disagree about anything. We've just decided, on some level, to watch these games from different perspectives.

Good AB for Thome...

Thome should really get more PAs, however possible. Worked a good AB, and lined a pitch. That counts as a really top-notch PA for this team, even if it ended in an out.

Thome hasn't hit in his limited ABs but he is one of the few guys in this lineup who works the count almost every time up.

Really too bad that his back prevents him from starting 2-3 games a week at 1b because this lineup could desperately use his bat.

I'm guessing this was mentioned earlier, but congratulations to Jamie Moyer. The fact that he is still pitching in a major league rotation is really, really cool.

Jack - whatever dude. I predicted 93 wins, too. I expect the roster to change dramatically over teh course of hte season, including Howard and Utley returning. Therfore, I object to daily pronouncements about how the team is screwed even as I recognize it's problems. The team is challenged. I don't think there's cause to raise a bloody sword declaring the death of the champions. You seem to think otherwise.

actually, Jack - if you want to read imaccurate posts, go back and rrad your panic-filled rants about the offense the last twwo years. Itas interesting that Fata seems to have forgotten his many posts about how good the offense was last year once Utley was back and Pence joined the team. This matters because what we're discussing arre the panic-filled ptredictions about this year's offense that use ta tiny sample size as a reference point.

Phlipper, by the same token, the Phillies team had a .717 OPS last year, but had a .764 OPS with RISP and a .767 OPS with Men On.

Very likely that the 2011 Phillies, who had a below league average OPS/OPS+, were lucky to score quite as many runs as they did.

How long until runners on first base start tagging up on routine fly balls to Pierre?

Candlestick is a dump. Bad venue for 49ers games and concerts.

"oddly enough, BAP said they wouldn't miss Howard's production at all."

My exact words were not that we wouldn't miss it at all, but that that we'd miss it less than people think. Yeah, I was probably wrong. He's an extremely flawed player, but we do miss his power & his ability to hit with RISP. Of course, whether he can come back and be anything resembling the diminished, but still productive, hitter that he has been over the last 2 years is an open question.

Could be Fata - but don't forget that for Howard, his run production is underrepresented by hie OPS.

Fatalotti, isn't it standard for teams to have higher OPS with RISP / Men on than otherwise? Not really luck but a matter of hitter-friendly defensive adjustments with men on base.

Phlipper, there's a difference between me praising an offense last year with a healthy Howard (despite his faults, a mid 120s OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at), an Utley who still was an above average hitter, a Pence who was absolutely playing his best baseball of his career last year (he matched Matt Kemp in almost every category as a Phillie last year, in terms of walk rate, strikeout rate, BA, ISO, etc), a Victorino who was a legitimate MVP candidate and Mayberry who was pretty much Ryan Braun's equal from July 1 on. Even still, my posts were always to counter the notion that the Phillies offense was problematic and a major cause for concern last year. Once that notion dissipated, you'll remember that I stopped beating that drum so vociferously. I also never did any deeper analysis that runs/game.

That's particulary true for Howard, sophist (because of the shift not being on). He adds runs that don't show up by just looking at overall OPS.

Stutes should go back to Lehigh & relearn how to throw strikes.

This is just a below average to poor offensive team right now. Why rehash last year or what it implies for this team all season long.

Stutes slider is just not a good pitch. Weakest option right now in the pen.

Phlipper: Most hitters hit better with RISP. Howard's boost is better than most hitters for the reason you state. But the flip side is that he's absolutely awful with the bases empty -- and bases empty situations contribute to run scoring too.

I think his OPS does just fine at measuring his overall offensive contribution.

Sophist, the league had a .720 OPS last year, while the league had a .732 OPS w/ RISP and a .735 OPS with Men On. (.710/.723/.724 for the NL)

They certainly hit better, but only a 1.8% uptick. The Phillies had nearly a 7% uptick. Maybe they earned every bit of that uptick, but color me a bit skeptical.

BAP, Howard's not awful with the bases empty, just not elite.

No doubt, obviously, they're performing poorly right now. The question is how much predictive value that has. If people use the performance so far to base predictions, it seems fair to question the validity.

Well. Be the hero, Vic.

No need to belabor the minor point, but the Phils did have a guy on their team last year (Howard) who regularly far outhits his total OPS with men on / RISP and probably gets more RBI chances than anyone else in the lineup.

One fucking pitch.

Phlipper, once again, these 10 games have done nothing more than reinforce the conclusion that can be drawn by looking at recent history (2 years) for most players in this lineup. You don't need these 10 games to know that this is a poor offense (as currently constructed). And the 10 games do nothing to dispel that notion, either.

Go Flyers.

I'm going to ahead and admit that Pierre can still get on base pretty effectively...

Hey, Crawford made a play.


Again, Juan Pierre- not the problem.

Meant 3 years, not 2 years.

Sadly, this game was a foregone conclusion as soon as the first inning was over. If our 5th starter pitches like a 5th starter, we have virtually no chance to win.

BAP - if howard wasn't the cleanup hitter i'd agree with you. Aas the cleanup hitter, his OPS with RISP gains relative value.

I'm going to ahead and admit that Pierre can still get on base pretty effectively...

Posted by: The Perils of Thinking | Wednesday, April 18, 2012 at 01:06 AM

He came into the game with a below average OBP, but left with an above average OBP.

I'll save my argument for when his OBP eventually dips back below the league average. :)

Also,keep in mind that my respone was to fata's point about the relationship of runs scored to OPS as a predictive metric.

Phlipper, without your ridiculously long handle, it's hard to take you seriously. Anyways, I'm going to bed, but if you want to further this discussion, I'll gladly try and respond in the morning.

The Phils were 14th in the NL in runs scored coming into the game. My only thought is that they won't stay there and don't need to be any better than average at scoring runs to win a lot of games.

Can they be even any better than 12th in runs scored? Will Utley and Howard even return before August? Really don't know that until we see more of Mayberry, see how far Polanco has fallen, what Brown can do, etc..

I'll be happy with a .500 April.

If Pierre brought anything to the table other than hitting for average, I wouldn't be so down on him. But he never walks, he can't field, his arm is awful, he has less power than any hitter in baseball, and he's not even a good base stealer anymore. I'd rather have Laynce Nix's 3 ugly ABs and 1 extra base hit than Juan Pierre and his 2 singles.

I agree completely with sophist's 1:14. 1:14? Tine for bed.

Team needs desperately to get Mayberry and Polly going. Both are really struggling to drive the ball with any authority.

Polly needs to get going because as the #2 hitter, he has been a rally stopper at the top of the lineup. Mayberry has to get going because he's one of the few legit power threats in the lineup and the defense in LF goes way down with Pierre playing a lot (Pierre's arm is the weakest in baseball and teams will run on him all year long).

Wiggy has looked much better in the past couple of starts, after a dreadful start. Nix is coming around. Got to get Polly and RFD at least back to average. As LA pointed out perfectly, RFD jammed himself with the bases loaded tonight on a very hittable pitch (a pitch he would have hit hard somewhere last year). There is a mechanical flaw there, that the coaching staff and John need to figure out. Because its happening over and over again. Polly is a opposite field hitter, but he isn't hitting the ball with any authority. If he isn't injured, we need to figure out what is going on there too.

Charlie won't lose faith in either of these guys. He gave Francisco 2 months to play almost every day last year. And he realizes its only mid-April. But for the time being, we are likely to see more of Pierre in LF and more of Wiggy at 3B. Which for a defensive/pitching minded team, hurts us badly in both spots.

Matt Gelb: Charlie Manuel doesn't seem inclined to move Placido Polanco down in the lineup. "When I go over our lineup, he's always kind of fit there when he's been healthy. Polly knows he needs to get going."

Charlie is nothing if not predictable. Vets can do no wrong. Meanwhile, Mayberry will find his ass riding the pine w/in a week.

"When I go over our lineup, he's always kind of fit there when he's been healthy."

In 2010?

It will eventually happen. I just hope it's weeks instead of months.

Bl'ers are still bitching about Pierre yet he got on base both times...Dont matter if was a dink hit the dude got on base..Which is the primary reason he was bought on his you not think Cholly and Raj know his arm is weak of course...Bitching about KK yet he through 2 scoreless innings got himself out of a jam and threw a beauty of pitch to get that last out...KK of 2 years ago would of imploded in that situation..On a different not if Mayberry and Polly dont come around well in deep mudpie's..


Calling Dom brown. Mayberry is lost and his time is ticking.

Congrats Jamie Moyer on his 1st win at 49 years old. Also, the Rockies defense has been terrible for him, multiple errors the last 3 games hes pitched behind him.

Shocking stat of the early season:

The Phillies are 27th in baseball in runs/game. (not shocking)

The Phillies have scored more runs/game than the Reds. (shocking)

Yo, new thread

We need Bats !!!! We have zero hitters outside of Pence.thinking Mayberry could be an everyday player was a big gamble. I don't know what Amaro is thinking regarding offense. We do not even posess a 30 plus home run hitter . This is going to be a very long year.

Another futile hitting nite by the phillies. We must get some bats to help our pitching. 10 superb innings wasted by Lee. Not 1 run could we get for Cliff . How many legit hitters do we have. How many 20 home run guys, how many 30 home run guys . Maybe 1 20 home run guy. Wow what is the brain trust thinking to do to help the pitching. It may be a long summer in Philly

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