Pitching headline's Monday's drama when Roy Halladay (2-0, 0.60) and the Phillies open a set in San Francisco against Tim Lincecum (0-1, 12.91) and the Giants. First pitch is 10:15 ET.
They hold the same records (4-5), but the Phillies' outlook is simply brigher than their counterparts. Giants closer Brian Wilson is headed for season-ending surgery on his right elbow after an MRI revealed structural damage. Then there's the curious case of the Freak, who has been horrible despite striking out 11.7 batters per nine. The problem? He's allowed 14 hits, three walks and a pair of bombs in 7 2-3 innings. On the other side, Doc, who has never beaten the Giants in the regular season, has been the model of precision, finessing breaking stuff rather than overpowering opponents. His curveball hasn't been fair.
Lineup: Pierre LF; Polanco 3B; Rollins SS; Pence RF; Victorino CF; Nix 1B; Galvis 2B. Laynce Nix (pictured right missing a pitch by 10 inches) delivered one of the game's big hits in Sunday's win and has given clues that he's the Phillies' best defensive option at first. As always, Beerleaguer Game Chat is brought to you by the Drexel Lebow MBA.
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MG, you're right about the reverse splits. At least last year, though, Affeldt was MUCH better against LHB than RHB. Still, I'm ok with leaving Doc in. The likelihood that Thome mashes an XBH there is not worth taking the ball out of Doc's hands and giving it to a much lesser pitcher in Bastardo or Qualls, in my opinion.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:27 AM
It's real nice to have a guy in the ninth who you know is just not going to blow a 3 run lead to this lineup under any circumstances.
Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:27 AM
Another called strike against Mayberry to get him looking. He's just in a funk right now.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:28 AM
I love Doc, but this is a trend worth watching:
Start 1: 0 ER
Start 2: 1 ER
Start 3: 2 ER
He'll be out of baseball by mid-June.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:29 AM
MG - that was a really tough pitch. Awfully hard to hit, and I'm surprised it was called a strike.
Posted by: Phlipper (back to thinking the Phils will finish ahead of the Mets) | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:29 AM
If Bochy doesn't anoint Romo his closer, he's off his rocker. Romo has been the best relief pitcher for the Giants for the last 2 years, even far better than Wilson.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:30 AM
The 1 2 3 in our lineup has been a real murderers row
Posted by: Let's eat | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:31 AM
Polly didn't look like he was favoring the elbow.
Posted by: Phlipper (back to thinking the Phils will finish ahead of the Mets) | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:31 AM
I'm waiting to post...
"3-0 with an 1.18 ERA on the first three starts? #winning"
Posted by: nonamePHame | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:31 AM
Philipper - It was a really nice curve. Just usually that Mayberry has a good hack at curves though especially vs LHP.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:31 AM
How many wins for Doc this year?
Posted by: Phlipper (back to thinking the Phils will finish ahead of the Mets) | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:32 AM
Well, he should get about 34 starts so figure on around 34 wins.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:33 AM
NEPP - ESPN has him on pace to go 32-0.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:33 AM
NEPP, I was going to be conservative, and say he matches Carlton's 1972 total of 27, but I like where your head's at.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:34 AM
In that bc commercial-,amazing how the spouse delivered kids w-o even uncrossing her legs!
Posted by: Let's eat | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:34 AM
realistically? 25.
Posted by: nonamePHame | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:34 AM
I'm liking him for 20 wins. It'd be nice to see.
Posted by: Phlipper (back to thinking the Phils will finish ahead of the Mets) | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:35 AM
Burriss had a really good pitch to hit there 0-2. Lucky he has no ability to really drive the ball.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:36 AM
Why is Papelbon throwing 91 mph??
Posted by: Brian | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:38 AM
Going into the year I thought Halladay would win 17 games. Fast start though so far helps to give him a better chance to get more than that.
Started 4-0 in his first 4 starts in '10 and wound up with 21 wins.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:38 AM
Doc started 4-0 in his first season with the Phils.
Posted by: Sophist | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:39 AM
"Why is Papelbon throwing 91 mph??"
His arm's shot from throwing 26 pitches yesterday.
Career's basically over.
Posted by: Phlipper (back to thinking the Phils will finish ahead of the Mets) | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:39 AM
Did fg Mis judge that grounder?
Posted by: Let's eat | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:40 AM
Really important to get Cabrera here. Don't want Sandoval/Posey coming up representing the tying run.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:40 AM
So close there, Freddy.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:40 AM
Papelbon is down 1 mph on his fastball this year, according to FG. been between 94.5 and 94.9 every year in the league, but came in to today at 93.8. Still early, though.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:41 AM
High cheese and he chases here.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:41 AM
I'm too tired to complain about this win. Good game, good night.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:43 AM
Good start to the road trip especially since this was the only game where the Phils have a clear pitching advantage given how Lincecum has pitched lately.
Hopefully scratch out 2-3 runs somewhere against Cain tomorrow night.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:43 AM
How many east coast games did we beat to the finish?
Posted by: gobaystars! | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:43 AM
Very nice win. Let's see if they can grab one against Bumgarner/Cain, who are really tough pitchers in this park.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:43 AM
That's Paptastic!!!
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:43 AM
Meant Bumgarner. Face Cain on Wed. night.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:44 AM
DOC tastic
Posted by: Let's eat | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:45 AM
For what it's worth, most pitchers pick up 1-2mph as the season progresses. It's still early, arms aren't yet in top form.
ESPN did an article on that recently :
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=60F6I120410
Posted by: sdphillie | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:45 AM
Pap's velocity was a little low to start the year last year and the year before. nothing to worry about. He's still got great location and movement on his fastball and splitter.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:46 AM
Good to know he picked up velocity as last year went on. Still makes me nervous to see an expensive new acquisition working 3-4 mph below where he normally operates. Appearances on back-to-back days shouldn't produce that effect.
Posted by: Brian | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:57 AM
Strange game. If Melky Cabrera hadn't completely butchered Polanco's "double" in the 1st inning, & Pence hadn't made that great catch to end the 4th, it might well have ended up 5-2 the other way.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:58 AM
@bap
I suspect that there's going to be a lot of that this year. With offense in the league dropping again and the Phils being pitching-first anyway this year, small mistakes are going to be amplified. When the big things get rarer, the little things get bigger. Or something like that.
Posted by: Dan Koch | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 01:07 AM
Phils really have played some teams with terrible corner OF defense lately. Mets with Bay/Duda and Hairston/Duda yesterday. Fish embarrassing defense with Stanton and Morrison.
Phils' aren't world-beaters either defensively with Pence and Pierre out there but better than their opposing counterparts lately. Arguably the difference in the game tonight.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 01:14 AM
Gtwon i hear you...No complaining a win is a win...But realistically we had a struggling pitcher here couple early miscues early on by the Giants defense...the only real blow was Nix...Take Nix double out or Pence's catch and the game could of went either way..
Posted by: Luis | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 01:24 AM
Appearances on back-to-back days shouldn't produce that effect.
Posted by: Brian | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 12:57 AM
Not to mention a cross country flight.
Posted by: STS | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 01:44 AM
Doc has a good shot at reaching career no. 200 by mid-season. If he can pitch through the 2018 season, when he's 41, Doc also has a chance to get to career no. 300. My guess is that he finishes his career at 280 wins.
Posted by: derekcarstairs | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 02:10 AM
"Strange game. If Melky Cabrera hadn't completely butchered Polanco's "double" in the 1st inning, & Pence hadn't made that great catch to end the 4th, it might well have ended up 5-2 the other way."
'Next on Baseball's Butterfly Effect...Cliff Lee ate a bowl of plain cheerios the day he decided on Philadelphia. But would the world be different had he chosen Honey Nut?
Plus- was David Wells' perfect game a product of the brand of boubon he drank that day? Stay tuned.'
Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 08:02 AM
"But realistically we had a struggling pitcher here couple early miscues early on by the Giants defense...the only real blow was Nix...Take Nix double out or Pence's catch and the game could of went either way.."
Just stop it.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 08:29 AM
HELP! Someone please explain to me the logic of Wiggy as a defensive replacement for Nix.
Posted by: jr | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 08:36 AM
"But realistically we had a struggling pitcher here couple early miscues early on by the Giants defense...the only real blow was Nix...Take Nix double out or Pence's catch and the game could of went either way..
---------------------------------------
Can we bring back the undeserved win stat?
Seriously guys it is okay to be happy about a win instead of finding ways to cut it down
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 08:37 AM
Good thing defensive blunders should only affect the Phillies. Point is that defense matters and we dont often realize it because we typically have sound defenders at most positions on the field whereas the Mets, Giants and Marlins show us the dangers of not playing good fundamental baseball.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 08:39 AM
'Seriously guys it is okay to be happy about a win instead of finding ways to cut it down.'
Couldn't agree more, TI.
Posted by: limoguy | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:00 AM
jr: at 1st base? Wiggington has 1,938 innings of experience there while Nix has 69 innings at 1st? I guess. SSS, but Nix does have ever so slightly better numbers in those 69 innings. But Charlie usually defaults to experience, doesn't he?
Posted by: Jbird | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:02 AM
Every game hinges on a play or two here or there.
Posted by: Jbird | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:04 AM
It amazes me that as much as we discuss defense, UZR, WAR, etc. etc. all the time, but when then people watch the game and defense plays are made/not made, all we talk about is what shoulda/coulda happened.
How do people not connect the dots here? When Mayberry doesn't hit a pitch out of the park, do you say 'well if mayberry would have hit a HR on that pitch, the game would have been different?" Of course not, because its idiotic to think that since Mayberry has hit a curveball for a HR before, that he 'could' have done it again on any other curveball.
But when some bum on the other team misplays a ball, we've got people saying, 'well if Pagan doesn't misplay that ball' ..... he wouldnt be Angel Pagan! Thats what he does! Mayberry will strike out on a lot of curves and Angel Pagan will misplay balls. There is no ifs/wouldas/couldas.
Posted by: lorecore | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:24 AM
FWIW, Papelbon's average and maximum velocities for last night were the lowest he's had since an outing in midyear 2009. He topped out at 93.1 mph and sat at 92.14 on his fastball.
So, hopefully it was just fatigue from the day before/jet lag.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:32 AM
Looking at Timmy's delivery, it appears that he doesn't "follow through" anywhere near as much as he used to. Self preservation? Injury?
Posted by: Raul's grandpa | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:35 AM
Yo, new thread!
Posted by: limoguy | Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 09:43 AM