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Monday, April 16, 2012

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We just need the freak to be horrible one ore time...You can do it...

Anyone feeling lucky against Lincecum and/or whoever closes? My head tells me that Halladay gives up 1-2 runs early while Lincecum shuts us down - all what one would normally expect - but I have some crazy optimistic feeling that we'll win tonight.

Doc has never beat the Giants?

Didn't Halladay best Lincecum in Game 5 of the 2010 NLCS???

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201010210.shtml

No game chat for me for the next 3 nights, as I'll be watching on my tv instead of the computer. Fortunately, my feelings about tonight's game can be summed up pithily, and before I've even seen the first pitch: This feels like a loss.

On what channel is the game being broadcast?

On what channel is the game being broadcast?

Posted by: awh

TCN

Per Zolecki, surprise! Still no timetable on Howard's or Utley's return. Howard stayed in Philly & visited a "wound specialist" today.

Will we see either of these guys play this season?

From the end of the last thread, some people threw around the idea of letting Hamels go to get some mystery force on offense. This is so stupid that it deserves the clout treatment:

Interesting.

3r0ck, thanks!

3r0ck, thanks!

Posted by: awh

Welcome! Sux for us Verizon FIOS subscribers as it's not in HD

Here's to slipping below the .400 mark in San Francisco. 17-26, coming right up.

Iceman, since you brought it up, I'll repost my responses (combined) to GBrett from the last thread:

GBrett, that article has one of the Top Ten stupid ideas by an ostensible baseball writer:

Andre Ethier in the Phillies lineup?


Ryan Howard vs. LHP: .231/.311/.438

Andre Ethier vs. LHP: .243/.304/.362


Stupid, Casey. Plain effin' stupid.

Posted by: awh | Monday, April 16, 2012 at 09:11 PM


___________________________________________________________________

As for letting Hamels go?


WTF are you people thinking?


Do you even remember 3 - 4 years ago?
Do you know how old Halladay and Lee are?
Who is going to anchor the rotation 4 years from now?

If anything, you keep the younger guy and trade the OLDER guy.

Iceman, it was Casey Feeney's suggestion (on csn.com) to let Hamels go.

I'd rather keep Hamels, but I am curious in exploring options as to whether a good bat at 3B, for example, could be procured. I think it's a discussion worth having, although I might still conclude it's best to go after Hamels.

Feel like a loss already, GTown?

"From the end of the last thread, some people threw around the idea of letting Hamels go to get some mystery force on offense. This is so stupid that it deserves the clout treatment."

Perhaps we might want to wait until the results are in on the 2012 all-pitching, no-hitting experiment, before we declare the idea stupid on its face.

GBrett: a "wound specialist"? That doesn't sound good. infected incision, maybe?

awh: History argues strongly in favor of one. It's unfortunate that two of the most widely lauded parks in MLB -- PNC & AT&T -- are the two worst parks in the league in which to play, insofar as Phillies winning percentage goes.

Pierre gets a bunt base hit, steals 2nd, sacrificed to 3rd, scores on a SF. Phils win 1-0. You heard it here first. In other developments, Ryan Howard continues to put on weight at such an alarming rate that he'll soon be a candidate for gastric bypass surgery.

Jbird, I hope not infected. It sounded more like the doc is just checking to make sure the wound is closing.

Here's the exact quote from Todd Zolecki:
* * *
He visited a wound specialist at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital today. “His wound is still healing,” Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “He’s doing well. We’re continuing the same deal.” There is no timetable for Howard’s return. “The biggest challenge was for the wound to get to the skin from how deep it was,” Amaro said. “It’s getting there. It’s getting pretty close. … The question is when does he start doing stuff so it doesn’t compromise the healing process? We’re still on hold as far as that is concerned. Hopefully we’ll know more in the next couple of days.”

GBrett- I definitely agree that if Hamels proves to be unsignable, there will have to be a substantial upgrade on offense to even come close to offsetting the loss. I'm not sure where they'd go to get it, though.

I can't get on board with the idea of trading Hamels mid-season, however, unless people are looking to completely concede the 2012 season. He's one of the three players this team can't possibly afford to lose. The return would have to be other-worldly to even think about it.

Any team that would want Hamels would be in contention and thus very, very unlikely to return major league talent. Phils would have to be out of contention.

I think there are many fans and a few posters here who prefer runs to wins, despite protestations to the contrary. Those who favor letting Hamels go and using the $20 million + in annual salary that Hamels would cost to acquire offense are in that category.

awh, you hit the nail on the head Re: Hamels and age. As much as I shudder to think about it, Doc and Lee are eventually going to decline. I think both are physical specimens and should provide good value for the remainder of their contracts, assuming something catastrophic doesn't happen- but they aren't getting any younger.

Hamels is just entering the prime of his career. This is a guy that could anchor your rotation for the next decade, if you're lucky enough to have him. Losing him would be devastating for the team in the present, and, more importantly, going forward.

I'm also curious who we would sign on offense to offset the loss of a #1 starting pitcher. First base is already locked in (much to the chagrin of most on BL). So is SS. So is RF. So is C. No one is taking Utley, but I suppose we could eat the salary and spend some money on Maicer Izturis or Kelly Johnson (the two best available 2B). We could let Vic walk and sign Bourn in CF (I would be in favor of this). In LF, we're either going to have Brown, or perhaps Josh Hamilton (also would be a net positive, but I get the feeling Texas keeps him). At 3B, you could let Polanco walk and almost anything would be an upgrade, although not much if you take Wright out of the equation. Youkilis could be bought out, but he's 35 and isn't exactly aging well.

I guess what I'm saying is, unless you sign 2 or 3 top of the line free agents, you ain't replacing Hamels productivity, and even if you do, you are really hurting the rotation long-term.

Sophist: I wouldn't trade Hamels unless we're far out of contention in July (which we won't be). But letting him go at season's end, and using his would-be salary to upgrade the offense, is not an idea I would rule out on April 16. Of course, Vic's free agency complicates the issue because most of the good FA bats are outfielders. If you lose Hamels AND Vic, and sign a big bat for the OF, then you've lost an ace pitcher and you haven't really upgraded the offense at all.

For what it is worth, I like the Phils tonight. Radio while I work tonight.

bap, which is more expensive to replace and harder to replace when you lose it top notch pitching or top notch hitting?

Yeah, I wouldn't let Hamels go unless we could get his equal in return, but even so, I've been in favor of a strong rotation. And have thought exactly the same thing about wanting to keep our youngest ace simply because he is young and an ace.

awh: I didn't say I'd do it. I said I wouldn't rule anything out until we see how the season plays out.

But if our offense really stinks for the entire year, it wouldn't be a matter of which is more expensive to replace. It would be a matter of which area we need more in the short-term future.

"It would be a matter of which area we need more in the short-term future."

And that is exactly the thinking that couses teams to fall out of contention after a few years.

The one problem with the Phillies broadcast is TBag.

Ugh.

Re: trading Cole.
McGriff and Fernandez for Carter and Alomar was a very long time ago. Teams do not trade top talent for top talent anymore. Bad teams unload veteran contracts for minor league potential. no blockbuster coming. Nor should there be.

I believe the Phils are able to sign Hamels, Pence and Vic to extensions if they so choose. This may cost a little in luxury tax in 2013, but the team can get a fresh start in 2014 when the threshold rises to $189 million.

In addition to the $11 million increase in the luxury tax threshold, Blanton's, Utley's and Polanco's salaries will be off the books. That's another $26 million for salary cap purposes. I think the $37 million is enough to cover the salary increases for Hamels, Pence and Vic and to find adequate replacements for Utley, Polanco and Blanton. If Trevor May continues to improve, Blanton's replacement will be cheap.

I know there are beat writers who read this, so I'm going to start this campaign:

DEAR BEAT WRITERS, PLEASE ASK MANUEL WHY HE CONTINUES TO BAT POLANCO SECOND. LOVE, BL

Ugh. There's a small number of 3B on the FA market at the end of the season. Rolen, possibly Wright, Youkilis.

On to the game at hand now that it's started. Gift from the Giants' defense there. Capitalize, Jimmy!

Icewman, because he hits luck, bloop doubles off of Lincecum.

Nice AB by Jimmy.

Great AB by Rollins, not biting on the change-up with a full count.

A wound specialist is not a bad thing necessarily. Just checking to make sure it is healing the way it should be.

First blood!

Nice Pence!

sweep the legs!!!

Sorry, they keep talking about Timmy losing 20 lbs in the offseason. What is that supposed to do for him? Fit in his Grammy's wedding dress?

Nice job, Phillies!

Great approach so far with Lincecum. Just take what he gives you. Wait until he leaves a pitch up in the zone and make good contact.

Here comes Nix to blow that all to hell.

I think Lincecum will end up regretting his decision to turn down all those long-term deals he got from the Giants over the years...simply not the same pitcher he used to be.

You can't contain Laynce Nix!

Well, now I'm convinced that Timmy isn't pitching healthy.

Laynce!!!

Game over?

YE, son. Is Timmy losing it? What is happening to this guy?

Man. Can this team hit.

baba ba ba-baaaah, I'm loving it!

Hey Mitchy! Mitchy Mitchy Mitchy Mitch Kramer, we're talking to you, pal! Your ass is gonna be purple before the night is done!

Sounds like Lincecum is not getting any help from his outfielders today either. Pagan and Cabrera seem to have something of a Keystone Kops routine going out there.

I think Howard is on track for July 1, which would be nice!

Utley is done. Not sure what "rehabbing aching knees" means, but it definitely isn't good.

Tim Lincecum lost 20 lbs? really? From where? a haircut?

Howard will be back by July 1.

Utley? He is done. "Rehabbing his aching knees" does not sound positive at all.

Galvis has had some big hits, but he's got to work on his strike zone judgement. That was a horrible 3-2 pitch. It would have been nice to get Halladay out of the way.

But still, great inning.

Halladay feels he's getting squeezed.

is doc returning the favor?

Roy needs to shut them down and not give anything back.

Come'on Freddy. That was a dead DP ball.

Phils' defense is doing Doc any favors this inning. Tough play but a weak throw by JRoll.

Babiptastic.

FG hesitatated - cost them the dp

I've got Pence and Vic, fantasy baseball guy has Lincecum. I'm loving this right now. 31 pitch 1st inning could likely mean that we won't be seeing him go much farther than the 4th or 5th. Seen a lot of Lincecum lately, and he doesn't look like the pitcher he used to be. His velocity is down from mid 90s to low 90s/high 80s. His split-changeup used to drop out of the zone, and with the lower 4SFB velocity making the speed differential less combined with its it's now catching too much of the strike zone, he's going to get pounded, with the last Colorado start as proof. I believe it was the worst of his career, statistically.

Too early to jump on the "oh, his velocity is down, he's injured!" bandwagon, but he seems to be pitching about the same pitches and proportions that have previously given him success, which lead it to be poor pitches, poor locating, or a combination of the two.

Do you catch him much, BAP? If so, what say you?

Halladay can glare all he wants to this inning at the ump but he isn't throwing strikes.

he is gifting the game back to them

Squeezed.

Big K because a base hit there especially to LF scores 2 runs.

That was one ugly inning of work by Halladay. Very fortunate to get out of that with only 1 run.

sdphillie, one thing to keep in mind is that there is a big difference between a 90MPH fastball and a 95MPH fastball. While it doesn't seem like that much mathematically, to the hitter, the extra 5MPH cuts down the decision making time (swing or take, and where to swing) by about 50%.

If Lincecum is throwing 90 - 91 as opposed to 95 - 96, that makes a big difference to the hitter, and also could make his changeup less effective because the hitter has that extra split second to look at the pitch.

i dont think he is being squeezed on all of the pitches, maybe a couple

let's eat, a couple of pitches can make all the difference.

Another weird and predictable Doc start. Presumably he's about to cruise for the next 6 innings.

He didn't look good that inning, but did anyone really expect him to give up multiple runs there? The guy is JC Romero with the bases loaded. Harry Houdini.

Juan Pierre, after a long inning by his pitcher, goes up and gets himself out on two pitches.

Yep, baseball IQ, that guy.

fantastic offensive inning by the phillies

Oh, and neither Pierre of Polanco called a timeout, or stepped out of the box.

Way to give Roy a rest. Dopes.

Not much rest for Halladay after that long half-inning.

I hope he settles in to his normal excellent self.

awh - That's exactly what I'm saying. The mph difference on his 4SFB not only makes that pitch more hittable, but it makes the speed differential on his split change much smaller than it normally would, so if people are able to adjust to the 4SFB being slower, they're more apt to grab something and foul it off, or even put it in play, whereas before, they'd be swinging through. It should be dropping out of the strike zone, but certainly isn't as violently as it used to.

He looks more human than he ever has before, but I wouldn't go far enough to compare him to an Adam Eaton or Freddy Garcia... yet.

awh - how true, how true

"Juan Pierre, after a long inning by his pitcher, goes up and gets himself out on two pitches."

I'm not giving a pass to Halladay either. I realize his job isn't to hit but there's no excuse for not running on that strike 3 PB. He might well have been on 1st base, which could have changed the entire inning.

"I'm not giving a pass to Halladay either. I realize his job isn't to hit but there's no excuse for not running on that strike 3 PB. He might well have been on 1st base, which could have changed the entire inning."

Yeah, would have been nice to have him forced out at 2nd on Pierre's double play ball. Put down the scotch.

bap, I cannot argue with that. Roy should have run.

And Doc has settled in as always. I predict 8 IP, 1 ER.

OK, Roy Halladay is officially Superman and doesn't need much rest.

Would have been an entirely different set of circumstances. Pierre may have bunted. He might also have beaten the DP throw, which would have left a fast runner on base instead of Halladay.

There's simply no excuse for standing at home plate when you have a chance to make it to first.

@bap, @awh -- you mean the one that wasn't even appealed until posey had the ball back in his glove???

he didn't think he went... why would he run. please.

Wow, how does Jimmy follow up a great AB with an AB THAT bad?

It's like he was a different hitter.

Good thing the Phils scored 4 runs in the 1st because it looks like their offense is going to settle in for a slumber.

vs. Pence
#1 - 90 FB down middle
#2 - 91 FB around face
#3 - 84 SP whoops.

Pence has a tendancy to hack at low stuff, and Vic popping a first pitch doesn't help. Some plate discipline would certainly help their chances of winning and chasing Timmy out of the game much sooner.

I am watching this game on mlb.tv and listening to the Giants announcers. They are much, much better than the local clowns. They don't feel the need to fill the air with constant noise.

i think the phillies just gave timmy an easy inning, by swinging at bad pitches, or first pitches, not being patient at the plate.

gOLD glove work by the NIX

I can't believe this is even a discussion. As long as Halladay pitches like a Hall of Famer I could care less if he goes up without a bat in his hands, or even stays in the dugout while the pitcher throws 3 BP fastballs. I just don't care. He's not paid to swing the bat. Go out there and do a crossword puzzle for all I care.

Doc is kinda good.

Like "best pitcher to ever wear a Phillies uniform" good.

PtB throws out tomorrow's first pitch.

That traitor.

Iceman, I disagree, good baseball is good baseball.

It's the NL, not the AL.

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