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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

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Jbird & G'Town: Haha, very clever.... hyphens are a pain in the ass from this phone. You'd prefer re sign or re.sign?

91-71, squeaking out division over next year's champs, the Washington Nationals.

Then barring a 2010 Giants impersonation, they'll be out either in the NLDS or swept out of the NLCS by Arizona.

Detroit wins it all.

"Been a hell of a ride, guys." BL post in November.

91 wins. First in the East. Knocked on their collective butts in the first round.

Nix and Wiggy mercilessly booed by AS break.

Howard is back in June and looks every bit the overweight gimpy 32 yr old the rest of the way.

Utley back before Howard, but the knees get him later in the season and he finishes on the dl.

Diekman plays a large part in the bullpen.

"Nix and Wiggy mercilessly booed by AS break."

Is this a bet? If so, I'll see your AS break, and raise you to opening day.

That article should be called
"Interpersonal Dynamics of the Eudebrito"

awh: "RD and the record it predicts is important, no?"

When? After the first two months of the season? Or in the final week of the season?

94-68
Lose NLCS.

91 wins
win NL East by two games over Fish, Braves

lose in NLCS to Giants

"Nix and Wiggy mercilessly booed by AS break."

bap - Is this a bet? If so, I'll see your AS break, and raise you to opening day.


I contend it will be a smattering of boos early which builds to a crescendo by the AS break. A random Fox broadcaster will hear such boos and comment about how rough and tumble those darn Phillies fans are....heck they even booed a drunk Santa 40 years ago. Bad bad Phillies fans.

my random predicts:

- Nix plays well enough to earn majority of playing time and separates himself from Wigginton, who struggles

- Papelbon puts up great numbers, but still blows about 5 1run saves on the year, ensuring that his signing creates irritatingly constant argument between ppl who are for/against him.

- Thome stays off the field and excels in a PH/DH only role

- Big Truck comes back healthy and splits time with Bastardo to create a shutdown 8th

- KK makes a (6-8 )of great spot starts/longman appearances, but is not effective out of pen

- Fringe prospects Derrick Mitchell and Tyson Gillies explode out of gate in AAA/AA while Victorino struggles, causing firestorm over the decision to re-sign/trade Vic. Vic stays at deadline, rebounds and plays crucial role down stretch/playoffs

- A non-pitcher phillie wins a playoff series MVP award.


Really looking forward to this season maybe more than even the past 2 because the Phils' aren't the clear favorites & they are going to a Phils' team I have never seen in my life - one based largely on stellar starting pitching with a modest offense at best.

Love NL games that are well-pitched, low-scoring games. They are quick (usually under 2:30), usually involve 7 interesting strategy moves, and are nail-biters.

It was always fun to watch Yanks-Red Sox games when I lived in Boston but man those games where it was say 11-7 in the 8th inning and the game was nearing the 4-hour mark were tough to watch for even the most diehard baseball fan.

105 wins
Halladay Cy Young.
Breeze through the NLDS and NLCS. Ryan Howard NLCS MVP.
Beat the Red Sox 4 games to 1 in WFC. Cliff Lee WS MVP.
Victorino signs in the offseason and people bitch about "one year too many" on the contract.

94, the East, and what, the hell, revenge over the Yanks.

r00b makes a deal for a bat. One of the Big 3 misses ten games, and another comes in second for the CY. Phils get swept by the Twinkies in June. Vic is ejected after an NL East opponent throws at his head. It is revealed that Michael Martinez is not using his real name. And a Phillies farmhand is fingered for PEDs.

A 94-win season and sixth straight division crown proves that even when seemingly at their weakest, the Phillies are still the class of the East. Howard and Utley, playing only half the season, push them to the pennant. The Angels take the World Series.

TPoT: Either one will do. It's just that I get all panicky when I keep reading how Hamels is gonna be all, like, "F*ck this noise" & walk away before the season even begins.

Shakes: Lord willing.

89 wins. Will sneak into the playoffs, but its gonna be a bumpy ride.

RD really isn't so much a predictor as an explainer. It's like BABIP for a pitcher; RD helps explain the degree to which "luck" (or, if you prefer, random variation) figures into the team's record. If a team has a 30-20 actual record, but a 20-30 record based on RD, it means that: (1) the team has done a bad job at scoring more runs than the opposition; and (2) it has nonetheless benefitted from some unsustainable good fortune.

A team's RD after 50 games isn't necessarily predictive in and of itself, because it's not a reliable sample size & the team can certainly get better or worse at preventing and scoring runs. But when actual record and predicted record are far apart, it does allow us to say: this team is either going to have to improve at run scoring and prevention, or their record is going to get worse.

It's very similar to a pitcher with a 2.50 ERA and a .225 BABIP. The .225 BABIP doesn't predict how he'll pitch in the future. But it tells you that, if he keeps pitching as he's currently pitching, his ERA is going to go significantly up.

Layin' it all out there...

NL East:
Phillies (97 wins)
Nationals
Braves
Marlins
That other team

NLDS:
Giants over Nats in Wild Card Deathmatch (WCD, if you will)
Phillies over Diamondbacks
Giants over Reds

NLCS: Phillies over Giants; Vic MVP

ALDS:
Yankees over Angels in Deathmatch because CJ Wilson sucks
Tigers over Rays
Rangers over Yankees

NLCS: Rangers over Tigers

WS: Phillies over Rangers in 7; Cliff Lee MVP

- Cliff Lee wins Cy Young over Halladay; Hamels in 4th
- Hamels gets locked in a couple of weeks
- Mayberry finds sweet spot between last year's 2nd half tear and his career stats
- Vic remains strong and is locked; Brown is traded to an AL team who can use a OF/DH player for prospects
- Utley retires
- Howard peaks within weeks of coming back then goes back to his old ways, only to get stronger towards the end of the season

94 Wins
Phillies over Reds in NLDS
Phillies over Marlins in NLCS
Phillies over Angels in 2012 WS

Of note:
-Mayberry earns full-time left field gig by all-star break.
-Utley comes back in July with much less power yet higher OBP.
-Howard returns slightly earlier than Utley and hits his stride in late August to carry over into a MVP postseason.

"Seat-of-the-pants blockbuster trade prediction (since RAJ's good for one every year): Dom Brown, Julio Rodriguez, JC Ramirez, and Jonathan Pettibone for Shin-Soo Choo & a reliever."


bap, salaries aside, if the reliever was Vinnie Pestano I might do that trade.

"Rollins is 27 SB away from 400"

This scares the hell out of me...

One thing is for sure, BLer's have opinions/projections that truly run the entire spectrum. I'm not sure that there's a single thing we can qualify as BL Conventional Wisdom this year, except that many predict that Galvis will perform just fine (hopefully not based on those "meaningless" Spring Training games - that would be hypocritical).

I'll go on record to take the alternative viewpoint in that I think he'll be the lightning rod of criticism after Nixington and Mini Mart. He'll hover around the Mendoza line and accelerate the Utley timeline or force a trade for 2B help.

99 wins, win the WS against the BoSox(of all teams).
Utley and Howard are good,but not 100% after returning from the DL in May(Chase) & June (Howard). Vic, Cole and Madson are back next year.

p.s. Might as well throw in world peace and a lottery wnning ticket

"bap, salaries aside, if the reliever was Vinnie Pestano I might do that trade."

I was obviously assuming a bounce-back for Choo. I was also assuming that the Indians throw in some cash, which is a usual prerequisite for any mid-season trade in which the Phillies take on salary.

GTown- Architectural Digest is a good addition to your coffee table "dress to impress" list.

"I'm not sure that there's a single thing we can qualify as BL Conventional Wisdom this year."

I can really only think of one topic on which all Beerleaguers seem to be united: the sh*ttiness of the Phillies' tv announcers.

GTown already subscribes to that. He designed the new addition to the Guggenheim.

BAP, Agreed. What is that product that matches up radio broadcasts with the tv broadcasts?

"awh: "RD and the record it predicts is important, no?"

When? After the first two months of the season? Or in the final week of the season?"


clout, touche!

Let me rephrase my error:

"RD and the record it 'indicates' a team ought to have had matters, no?"

"I can really only think of one topic on which all Beerleaguers seem to be united: the sh*ttiness of the Phillies' tv announcers."

Truer words have never been spoken.

That said, if there were a site dedicated to bashing the TV announcers, it would be the most boring and redundant comments ever (except for any noble family members of Wheels/TBag/Sarge who take up their cause).

Definition of "BL Conventional Wisdom" is whatever strawman Clout is currently setting alight.

For Phlipper and the rest of the guys and gals who are on the Ben Franklin, this little tidbit is from Hardballtalks preseason power rankings:

"7. Phillies: Infielders on this team have a worse life expectancy than the drummer for Spinal Tap. But having Halladay, Hamels and Lee hanging around makes up for a lot of stuff. The 1990s-early 2000s Braves won division after division with dudes like Mark Lemke and Keith Lockhart in the infield. I think the Phillies will be fine."

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/04/your-inaugural-power-rankings-2/

[insert mandatory comment about how many WS rings the Braves actually won in that same time period]

My prediction - John Lannan to AAA, earning 5 million dollars will be up with the big team and ready to break Utley's fingers as soon as Uts returns in August.

Pierre will be the everyday starter in leftfield until Howard returns in late July, then he will be replaced by Nixington, who will have a better stolen base percentage than Pierre in short order.

Phils win 92 games. Win the East. Muddle through the playoffs and get to the WS against any team other than Baltimore and WIN THE WFS!

Bowlcut, exactly! That is a prediction which is sure to come true:

Some idiotic announcer will bring up Phillies fans and Santa Claus.

88 wins, wild card, win the world series.

Laynce Nix will be more well liked than Mayberry.

Random question: Was Hunter Pence hurt last year? Didn't he have some sort of groin injury or something towards the end of the year, which could have hampered his effectiveness in the playoffs?

If that's the case, I'd love to see what he can do healthy.

Pence was playing with a sports hernia.

@Brett: Sports Hernia...which he had surgerically repaired in the off-season.

"Won't make a damn bit of difference come October, though."
---
Way to go out on limb there, Gtown. You can say that every contender in baseball (even the $170 M ones), and would almost always be right.

except for any noble family members of Wheels/TBag/Sarge who take up their cause

I am okay with Wheels being the "historian" type of color man, if there was a good lead announcer. It took 25+ years to come to that peace however.

bap, I was using the word "predict" loosely (and perhaps incorrectly) in my reference to RD.

From what I understand, is that if one knows ahead of time what a teams final RS/RA is going to be, the RD can be used to "predict", or rather, estimate how many games that team will win.

There are obvious short term variations where "luck" and other factors come into play, but in a sample size of 100 seasons, I'll wager that the win distribution is pretty close to a Bell Curve.

So, the reason I used the Pythagorean W-L from last season for each team in my prediction is that IMHO that's the true starting point.

To wit, the Marlins scored 625 runs and allowed 702. That negative run differential would "predict" (or "describe" if you prefer) a team with a 72-win season.

Are a season of Zambrano and another 23 starts from Josh Johnson going to knock .5 RPG from their runs allowed? How many more runs will the addition of Reyes add to their total?

If they reduce their RA by .5/game and score another 75 runs with Reyes, they "should" win 90 games. Is this team capable of doing that - a 156 run swing in one season?

That said, even if they do, I still don't think it's going to be enough to overtake the Phillies.

The Braves were 18 games in back of the Phils in Pythagorean W-L last season, and IMHO they aren't going to have enough to make that up either.

Heart says: 96 wins, NFC East Champs WFC 4-2 over Angels

Head says: 91 wins, still NFC East champs but lose in NLCS the Marlins (ugh)

99-63
Win NL east by 10 games
Beat St Louis in NLDS 3-1
Beat LA in NLCS 4-0
Win WS vs Detroit 4-3

Hamels Cy Young but not before signing 5 year $125 mil extension
Dom Brown starting in LF by season's end.

91 wins. Win series in 7 over Yanks. Glorious last hurrah for this group.

92-60
NL East Champion.
Lose NLCS to San Francisco.

Hamels resigned, big three lead the way, but offense is very poor in post-season against the SF starting staff.

Big changes offensively in 2013.

awh: I was speaking more to the ongoing RD debate that was taking place around May or June of last year. That was the debate in which Jack said, "The Braves' record should improve, relative to the Phillies, based on the two teams' current records relative to their current RD." And clout said, "RD based on only 40 or 50 games isn't much of a predictor because it's too small a SS to be meaningful." Which turned out to be right, since the Braves' RD got much worse (in part due to injuries) & they actually ended up with a slightly better actual record than predicted record.

So my point is: 40-50 games probably IS too small a SS to be a meaningful predictor of future record or, for that matter, future RD. But it's not too small a SS to say, "Unless this team gets better at scoring or preventing runs, its current win-loss percentage is probably not sustainable." That sounds kind of like a prediction but it isn't. It's only a prediction if you think the team's current RD is going to stay approximately the same.

They should just bring everybody back to Clearwater at Christmas every season, bring in a few dozen docs to clear out everybody's loose bodies, bursa sacs and give everybody a complementary sports hernia surgery.

Williard,
The "27 from milestone steals" thing concerns me but so does J-Roll and an aged past his prime, prolific "been there, done that" kind of guy like Pierre on the bench next to him to egg him on. That concerns me.
If it does happen, I hope that Pierre somehow gets Vic to attempt some more steals this year, though they both (Pierre and Vic) can do some boneheaded baserunning at times too.
By the way, I gotta get me a Pepsi.

Ok, I finally saw that new thing-a-ma-jig where you have to type out the words that you see in order for your post to get through. EXTREMELY annoying, as it's almost impossible to read the words. I can already foresee dozens, if not hundreds, of my posts getting lost in Cyberspace as a result of that filter. Hopefully, the ones that get lost will be all of my dumbest posts.

Since it's Prediction Day, coolstandings has their pre-season playoff odds up:

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

***The "27 from milestone steals" thing concerns me but so does J-Roll and an aged past his prime, prolific "been there, done that" kind of guy like Pierre on the bench next to him to egg him on. That concerns me.***

If it helps, Jimmy had 30 SB last year and he was only caught 8 times.

I have not seen any predictions on mid-season additions so I will make one. Roy Oswalt, he will neither be good or bad, while pitching .500 down the streach and retire with a bad back.

WFC

Since it's Prediction Day, coolstandings has their pre-season playoff odds up:

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

Posted by: awh

---

Wow - Phils 10 games better than any other NL team, and win the NL East by 20?

bullit, thanks a lot. I wasn't worried enough about Howard's Achilles, Utley's knees, Thome's back, Big Truck's arm, JRoll's hammies and Polly's general ability to stand upright. Now I gotta worry about Oswalt's back, too?

In spite of the gloom and doom, Lake Nostradamus sees 98 wins with the Rube rotation built for playoffs, not regular season paying off with a WFC title over the surprising Red Sox. I see division titles for the Reds and the Giants with WC's to the Cards and Atlanta. In the AL, I see the Angels dethroning Texas with Detroit taking the Central and Boston in the East. The Yanks and Texas get a WC. The Commish hates seeing Texas and the Yanks pitted against each other in a one game playoff WC series and scraps the extra WC berth for the 2013 season.

99 Wins, WS Champions

Blanton is traded before ASB for salary flexibility and before his arm gives out again this season

Offense scrapes for runs in first half of season but is better than feared. Gets an adrenaline injection for second half from returning Howard, Utley, and defensively (barely) settled Dom Brown who platoons in left with Mayberry.

Third baseman of future (w/ Blanton's cleared salary) is acquired before trade deadline and Polanco shifts to super INF sub spelling Utley. Only significant acquisition for year.

Bastardo and Big Truck up and down as setup men throughout year. Aumont or DeFratus step up to assume position by September.

The Phillies will win 99 games to take the NL East finishing 8 games ahead of the Marlins. They avenge the last 3 seasons by defeating, in order, the Cardinals, Giants and the Yankees. I finally find the perfect blend of pain-killers and run along the parade route getting MVP Mayberry's autograph before I'm cuffed and hauled away.

sorry, willard. i didn't mean to be so wordy.

My crystal ball sees 88 wins, miss playoffs. A serious injury to a pitcher is the main culprit.

I also see Dom Brown getting traded after Rube has a chat with Ryne Sandberg about the kid's progress. It will probably be for a catcher.

I predict Galvis will snag one Rookie of the Month during the campaign.

I predict Roy O signs elsewhere.

I predict Ryan Howard with a second half 850 OPS

I predict Rollins gets suspended by the league once this season for his role in an on-field fracas.

I predict the Phillies have an excellent 2012 draft.

Roy Oswalt signs with the KC Royals, where he will eventually retire as King. He leads the Royals to the AL Central division title but can't pull the whole mellon wagon himself to beat the Yankees.

95 wins
NL East Champs
NLDS Champs (over Giants)
WCS Champs (over Yankees)

Here's the rational, the Phils are going into the season with enough pundit skepticism so as to take some of the pressure off them. This is a good thing - actually are in a position to prove pundits wrong, versus having to play up to unrealistic expectations. Also, there is enough "winning character" on this team that will surprise most of the said pundits when they start, and continue, to win.

bap, I understand.

I was just further clarifying my prediction.

In short, unless the Phillies pitching completely collapses, they should win the division.

Even without Howard and Utley for most of the season, putting a guy like Thome at 1B for 2 games a week is not a step down from the .835 OPS Howard put up last season.

And if Mayberry plays the other games at 1B, and sees LHP about half (as opposed to one-third) of the time, then, frankly, 1B production shouldn't see a hugely significant drop off from Howard's 2011 number.

What will be far more interesting is to see what Young Freddy does at 2B.

Plus, they'll have a full season of Pence, hopefully a healthier Polly, and they'll be replacing Raul's .707 OPS in LF.

They'll probably score less runs than last season, but I don't think it will be a total collapse either.

A couple weeks ago someone ran the lineup optimizer and said they "should" score about 4.2 RPG. If they do that, even with pitching that's not quite a good as last season, they should be fine.

Not sure his reasoning, but my favorite prediction is Mick's that Rollins will be suspended for his role in a brawl.

"Wow - Phils 10 games better than any other NL team, and win the NL East by 20?"


schmenkman, I thought it bizarre too, but read through their methodology.

They say they run thousands of simulations.

yo, new thread.

I predict they will play .500 ball to the All Star game.. Theyll go on a winning streak last 40(or so) games and barely make the playoffs. Then they would get eliminated in the first or maybe 2nd round. Besides the offensive issues i dont know if they still have the same drive and that magic that they once had.

Kevin Stocker had a pretty similar MiLB OPS to Galvis, here's to hoping Galvis can pull a .400 OBP rookie year out of his ass too.

90 wins, good enough to win a weak East. The offense, such as it is, disappears for a 3rd year in a row in October.

schmenkman: Except that I don't consider the Phillies to be a legitimate pennant contender. r00b has reassembled the '00-'05 Atlanta Braves: if the pitchers remain healthy they're good enough to win a weak division, but nowhere close to championship caliber. I'm also picking the f*cking Yankees to win the World Series.

I know there's a new thread up, but I have to put my prediction in this thread, so it can be mercilessly ridiculed, scrutinized, lambasted and mocked for the entire season. Here goes:

-Roy Halladay will suffer from a nagging injury, and post an ERA over 3, and even though he will still have an above average season, he will be nowhere near his usual dominant self (thinking 195 IP, 118 ERA+)

-Cliff Lee and Hamels will be absolutely awesome, and both vie for the Cy Young, but Josh Johnson will stay healthy all year and finally claim the gold.

-The offense will got hrough putrid stretches circa 2010, mostly because Utley and Howard will miss a combined 140 games. Mayberry will struggle with RHP, Rollins will struggle with LHP, Galvis will struggle with all handed pitching, Wiggington will struggle with Little League pitching, Schneider will struggle will tee-ball, Pierre will have a SB% under 70%, Polly will struggle to crack a .650 OPS, but Vic, Pence Ruiz, Nix, Howard (once he comes back) and Brown (once he's called up) will do very well, and the offense will find at about 10th in the NL.

-The bullpen will be thin in the middle innings, but Savery will be a nice surprise as a dual threat. Bastardo will really struggle given his decrease velocity, and Qualls will be just above average. Papelbon will be the best closer in the NL (barely edging out Kimbrel). But Papelbon's strength, along with the staff giving us lots of innings, will result in the bullpen not killing us too much.

-Billmeyer will revive the binoculars.

-The Phanatic will trip and fall off the dugout, but will recover quite nicely.

-Victorino, Pence, Lee, Hamels and Papelbon will be the Phillies All Star reps (Doc will probably make it on name recognition, despite his struggles).

-Phillies win 90 games, take the division by 1 game over the surprising Marlins, beat D-Backs in the NLDS, beat the Marlins in the NLCS and lose in the WS to the Angels.

yahoo fantasy baseball league id: 196060 password: baseball
Big rosters, lots of stat categories, quick draft at 8:30 p.m. ET tonight

90-72, just barely enough to win the East. The Braves wind up being the team that gives us the most trouble in September, while the Nats and Marlins have strong first halves and prevent the Phils from getting any kind of lead in the division.

The offense is led by Pence (.280/22/95) but no one has a truly spectacular season hitting the ball. Thome plays well but only gets 250 PA.

The pitching, once again, carries the team. The big three are strong, but this year it is Hamels who has the best season and wins the Cy Young. He signs a 5/120 contract extension before Memorial Day.

All-stars: Hamels, Halladay, Papelbon, Utley (voted but doesn't play), Ruiz.

Phils win the NLDS but lose the NLCS to Cincinnati who avenge their forgettable 2010 NLDS. Detroit wins the WS.

94-68

Win East and World Series. Ryan Howard WS MVP.

109-53

zero post-season losses.

Phils will win NL East and have best record in the NL. 92-96 wins depending on how the injuries go.

Mayberry makes the All-Star team as an OF while playing the majority of his games at 1B.

The year we avenge our last 3 postseasons.
95 wins-NL East Champs
NLDS over Cardinals
NLCS over Giants
WS over Yankees

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