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Monday, April 23, 2012

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Meant 82 OPS+ in my first paragraph.

"c) 2007 J-Roll could have hit 3rd on this team. 2012 J-Roll can't."


Shane, you're usually one of the more enlightened posters here, but on that point I vehemently disagree.


In 2007 JRoll did this:

Batting 1st: .301/.350/.553, 675 PA

Batting 3rd: .266/.311/.383, 103 PA


Jimmy HAS NEVER been a good 3 hole hitter, even during his career year.

Yet Charlie continues to stubbornly misuse him there, along with several other hitters.

My lineup would be this:

JRoll
Chooch
Vic
Pence
RFD/Thome/Wiggy/Nix
RFD/Thome/Wiggy/Nix
Freddy
Polly (make him earn his way back up in the lineup)
P

"c) 2007 J-Roll could have hit 3rd on this team. 2012 J-Roll can't."


Shane, you're usually one of the more enlightened posters here, but on that point I vehemently disagree.


In 2007 JRoll did this:

Batting 1st: .301/.350/.553, 675 PA

Batting 3rd: .266/.311/.383, 103 PA


Jimmy HAS NEVER been a good 3 hole hitter, even during his career year.

Yet Charlie continues to stubbornly misuse him there, along with several other hitters.

My lineup would be this:

JRoll
Chooch
Vic
Pence
RFD/Thome/Wiggy/Nix
RFD/Thome/Wiggy/Nix
Freddy
Polly (make him earn his way back up in the lineup)
P

awh, you're basing some pretty strong conclusions on a couple 100 PAs. You may be right, but you're still dealing with SSS.

Fatti, yes, it is a small sample size, but it happens every year when he hits inthat spot.

I'll leave it to the psychologists to explain.

So the Phils get Wade Miley tonight. A southpaw who threw 40 big league innings last season. Just write down a 5-0 loss right now and save yourself the misery. My only regret is I didn't pick this Miley dude up for fantasy tonight to get my ERA down.

Been thinking about the change in the Wild Card system and its effect on mid-season trades (mostly to take my mind off the current run of poor baseball). Question is: Will fewer teams be willing to pull the plug on the season and trade off their better players if they think they have a shot, no matter how slim, at a Wild Card spot? Will the the teams with a legitimate chance for a World Series have a much more difficult time trying to fill holes in their lineup or pitching staff via trade? Will the Have-nots be less willing to trade to the Haves?

What irritates me the most while watching the offense struggle is the general poor approach at the plate. Weak contact, swinging at bad pitches... Its quite disheartening from the Phillies teams of 3-4 years ago. While watching, I got the feeling they were just going through the motions.

I would love to see the Phils' record since the last decade against starting pitchers they haven't faced before and some kind of benchmark comparison to other NL teams.

Phils just seem to lose a ton of these games.

Ty Wiggington and his 120 ops+ is out producing Albert Pujols & Ryan Howard combined (0+85= 85 ops+). I don't see why Howard haters should have to apologize.

I cannot believe you fellas are treating my friend like this, see. The man has forgotten more about Mr. Doubleday's game more than you'll ever know. You gotta realize I give him the scoop and he breaks out that encyclopedia brain of his. DPatrone is a fine gent and he only uses Barbasol while he smokes those delicious Chesterfields. He even helped Canada defeat the Hun before we got involved in the Great War. I catch you fellas giving him the bum's rush again, I will feed you a knuckle sandwich, see.

Well done, baseball radio guy.

Fata, BAP, & AWH~ Then please provide a better argement. I was talking to a family memeber this morning as he said that something needs to be done to shake up the team. I asked him what he thought that was and he couldn't tell me. So I'll ask all of you the same.

What if anything would any of you do now to make this a better team. Forget about the fact they've only played 16 games. You don't think that's relavant at this point. But they're average less than 3 runs per. To me that's a major point of concern. So tell me, since nothing was done to help the everyday lineup in the off-season when it was easy to do do, what to do now that's it's difficult?

I read and respect the comments later.

Jeepers still harping on Pierre. His acquisition was to be a 4th outfielder, PH and maybe a Pinch runner. For this i think if he continues doing what he has been doing he will serve his purpose. Although i can understand where people are coming from. It is assumed once Howard comes back its Mayberry job to loose. That is if he hasnt already lost it by then.

My batting order for tonight's game:

8th-Pierre
8th-Polanco
8th-Victorino
8th-Pence
8th-Wigginton
8th-Mayberry
8th-Ruiz
8th-Galvis
9th-Kendrick

Actually, Pierre was acquired as a 5th OF...its not his fault he's starting every night.

My lineup would look a little something like this:

J-Roll (6)
Victorino (8)
Mayberry (3)
Pence (9)
Nix (7)
Ruiz (2)
Polly (5)
Galvis (4)
KK (1)

Nevermind, it's a lefty

J-Roll (6)
Victorino (8)
Mayberry (7)
Pence (9)
Wiggy (3)
Ruiz (2)
Polly (5)
Galvis (4)
KK (1)

Against a RHP, I'd do my first lineup.

Wow, people want to hit Chooch second? Can you say double play, kids? Chooch, Polanco and Exxon could have a double play competition and we'd never see a runner reach second safely.

With a singles machine like Pierre leading off, Ruiz would hit into more double plays than he has plate appearances.

If you want to utilize Ruiz' on base skills, you lead him off. Yeah, he's slow. But there is no way in heck you want him hitting second. That's Galvis on this team. He can move the runner with a bunt to avoid double plays. Chooch cannot.

I'd put Vic in the leadoff spot. In terms of potential to take BBs, hit for XB & steal bases, he's at least as good as Rollins, if not better. And since Charlie will die before he moves Chooch anywhere near the top of the order, why not let Pierre bat second? Jimmy should be hitting in the bottom half of the order, say 6th, but even if he doesn't move at least the brutal combo of Rollins/Polanco has been broken up. I don't know that it would make any great difference in the short or long runs, but I'd be curious to see it nonetheless.

When is "hitting season" this year. I want to mark on the calendar. Is it a full lunar phase before the summer solstice?

Dom, WTF do I have to answer a question with which I disagree?

Your family mamber is as short-sighted as are you.

After 16 games you're advocating "shaking up the team"? What for? Do you have any reading comprehension skills at all? Do you pay any attention to what other posters here have written about how a majority of the hitters on this team are performing below even their own averages?

Probably not. Not because it doesn't make sense to pay attention. It does.

You don't pay attention because the information doesn't fit your narrative. Anything that interferes with your confirmation bias is ignored or dismissed.

That, Sir, is what makes you look so hubristic and silly.


Let me give you an example:

Fatalotti and I had two exchanges earlier on this thread. In one, I pointed out something that I thought he ought to have included in his analysis of Victorino. He read it, comprehended it, and responded to IT - that is the information I provided. Later on, at the top of this page, he pointed out that I was relying on a small sample size when assessing JRoll in the 3-hole. I responded directly to his point. I didn't obfuscate around it.

You don't address the points - and the facts - that other people present to you when they take issue with your posts, and thus, it severely weakens any argument you try to make.

I'm really glad to see all the civil debates on here today on the Phillies current season. Despite differences on optimism/pessimism and varying viewpoints of players and lineups, we are all Phillies fans and should stick solidly behind our red pin-striped team.

I surf a lot of other teams' blogs and have been really dismayed the last few days with all the glee (That's Cliff's last name with a G in front of it) that so many other posters from fans of other baseball teams have been expressing over Cliff Lee's injury. I never hope for an injury to an opposing player. It's not only our NL rivals (the Giants' fans have been among the worse with one thread on one blog calling him a wuss for going on the DL unlike Matt Cain who will be pitching his regular turn) but even Yankee, Texas, and Red Sox fans have made some pretty sick comments about Lee being injured and they're playing in a different league from us.

Makes me realize that Phillies fans do need to stick together despite the natural differences of opinions and future prognostications that we hold.

Fatti, I actually like trying Maybery out in the 3-hole.

What do they have to lose? 2.7 RPG?

Hitting season has been cancelled.

Raul's grandpa wins the thread.

If you're going to worry what other team's fans say, don't visit their blogs.

two songs for the current phillies zeitgeist.

bobby vee with "the summertime blues"(doing it better than eddie cochran):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3eruzj6f1o

and a song written for bobby by carole king, "might as well rain until september":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFR8armp26E&feature=related

You guys believe us yet? We know what we're talking about...

As much as I hate linking to anything devised by a Mets blogger, Ted Berg is one of the good ones (and actually a fairly level headed guy - check him out sometimes at Tedquarters.net; don't skip the Embarrassing Photos of Cole Hamels, either).

Anyway, he put this together, and I think we need Mayberry to use it as his walk-up music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dw9qqvm-LT8

DPatrone: I am more than happy to tell you about specific moves that the Phillies have made, which I believe were bad at the time and have contributed to their current problems. Examples include: the Howard contract, the Polanco contract, signing Juan Pierre, re-signing Schneider, signing Nix, trading Valdez, and, arguably, the Papelbon contract (though I was never as down on it as some were).

I am also more than happy to tell you about the changes I would make within the known-to-be-available options. None of them is going to solve our problems, either alone or in combination. But, for the record, here they are: less Pierre, more Nix; Polanco in the 7-hole; Rollins back to leadoff (I can't believe I just wrote that); dump Schneider and call up Kratz; dump Orr for a RH bench bat -- maybe Luna; call up Dom if he starts hitting a little & Mayberry doesn't; and call up Brian Sanches if he keeps pitching well & Stutes keeps stinking it up.

Finally, if we hear about some specifically rumored trade or acquisition, I will be more than happy to tell you what I think about that would-be trade or acquisition.

Beyond that, I think it's fairly inane to discuss hypothetical, made-up trades or acquisitions, when we have no idea what the Phillies' budget is, no idea whether particular players are available, and no idea what it would take to get them. Suffice it to say that this offense sucks and, if it continues to suck, and changes aren't made, it will be largely (though not entirely) on RAJ.

I can't believe there's not a song entitled "This Team Can't Hit For Sh*t Because r00b Is An Egomaniacal Jackhole & Charlie Has His Head Up His Own Butt".

I mean, c'mon, the lyrics practically write themselves.

that's very funny, anon. i loved the yiddish accent.

b_a_p: I've said it before & I'll say it again -- The Phillies need to trade all of their bad players for good ones. Why can't people grasp this concept?

"I can't believe there's not a song entitled "This Team Can't Hit For Sh*t Because r00b Is An Egomaniacal Jackhole & Charlie Has His Head Up His Own Butt"."

I'm thinking it would be one of those 90-second explosion-of-energy songs that the Ramones used to bang out.

Table setter?

Juan Pierre, much touted on BL as the best leadoff man, has an OB% of .335 past 2 seasons (ages 31 and 32).

Jimmy Rollins, much hated on BL as a leadoff man, has an OB% of .331 the past 2 seasons (ages 31 and 32).


I can hear the song. The background just keeps repeating "Can't Hit For Sh8t".

Fatalotti: "and Feliz was hitting like a 2nd baseman. "

Actually Feliz' OPS+ of 82 would be right near the bottom of everyday 2nd basemen in 2009.

He was hitting like the worst 2B in the league.

Help is on the way! Fontenot is now in LV, Thurston released.

clout, you're right, but my point still holds, because of this:

Chase Utley 2009 wRC+: 146
Kevin Youkillis 2009 wRC+: 147

Youk had the best wRC+ among 3B in 2009. So while Feliz was hitting like a sh!tty 2B, Utley was hitting like a superstar 3B.

So while it sucked to have a 3B who didn't hit like a 3B, it was more than made up for by the fact that we had a 2B who hit like the best 3B in the game.

Short attention span post of the day:

Rob: "Time to think about 2013."

And I only used wRC+ in my last post (as opposed to OPS+, which I originally used), because it's simply easier to look up for positional rankings.

b_a_p: I was thinking Nickelback ought to record it, so as to make the entire situation just that much more intolerably painful.

Actually, that might be a decent motivational idea. Every position player is assigned a Nickelback song as their intro music until their individual OPS improves. If after a month no discernible improvement has been made, it will be determined that said player(s) actually enjoy Nickelback, & they will be summarily executed as part of an in-game promotion (think Rally Blindfolds instead of Rally Towels).

The beauty here is that the Phillies have already sold what tickets they're gonna sell -- face it, no one is going to wake up tomorrow & be all like, "Damn! I gotta pay $40 to watch Juan Pierre hit a weak single & then get thrown out trying to steal 2B!" -- so Nickelback won't hurt the box office. And once the team improves, Nickelback is gone, rendering it both safe & potentially enjoyable to once again make a trip to the old ballpark.

"There are few, true fits, and there's no clear solution, except to pitch through it, hang in and hope for better luck."

In other words, there's no solution--they're doomed.

Oh well, maybe 2013 will be (slightly) better.

GTown, as much as I'm all for inspiring improvement, I'm not sure I can get behind your Nickelback proposal.

I'm actually already on record for my own proposal that any player coming to bat using a Pitbull song automatically start with two strikes against him. I almost think Nickelback should be an automatic out (and I'm CERTAIN I'll think so by the time the NHL Playoffs are done).

The Small Sample Size song should become a permanent fixture on BL.

There is nothing that can be done really or for the intermediate interim. Just have to play with the roster that Amaro put together, hope they get good news on Howard/Utley that they come back sometime after Memorial Day in June, and that they can scrape together enough offense to remain around .500.

Offensively they stink. Make minor tweaks but frankly if the regulars like JRoll/Pence/Vic don't hit it really doesn't matter what Cholly does with the lineup or who he plugs in because this will be a bottom 5 offense in MLB and bottom 3 in NL.

"I'm actually already on record for my own proposal that any player coming to bat using a Pitbull song automatically start with two strikes against him. I almost think Nickelback should be an automatic out (and I'm CERTAIN I'll think so by the time the NHL Playoffs are done)."

Hear, hear.

Fata: I agree with your point per your insertion of the word "sh!tty."

BAP - You are essentially recommending the 18th century British Navy code of discipline of "Beatings will continue until morale improves" only with walkup songs.

clout, I particularly enjoy the examples of said Small Sample Sizes in the video. Some good stuff in there.

Hopefully we can add Mayberry and Thome's 2012 starts to next year's iteration.

Preacher: I've been watching the NHL Playoffs on MUTE. And so far as I'm concerned, Polanco deserves what he gets until his music changes.

bap, I would generally agree with your prescriptions.

The thing is, this team has been playing worse than it really is. I'm not saying it's a 12 - 4 team, but their Pythagorean W-L is 8 - 8. IMHO, if they were hitting the way they "should" they might be 9 - 7, which extrapolates into 90 - 70, and yes, a potential playoff spot (I did NOT say division title).

I dunno ... If towel-throwing-in is verboten after only 16 games, shouldn't hypothetical record extrapolation also be a no-no?

Maybe Charlie can motivate these guys by telling them that if they don't play better, he'll institute the ancient Roman legionairy practice of "Decimation":

"Procedure

A unit selected for punishment by decimation was divided into groups of ten; each group drew lots (Sortition), and the soldier on whom the lot fell was executed by his nine comrades, often by stoning or clubbing.[citation needed] The remaining soldiers were given rations of barley instead of wheat and forced to sleep outside the Roman encampment."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army)

GTown, I have noticed a considerable dearth of CJ posts telling us what Wins pace the Phils are on...

awh, I agree with your general point. It's quite clear this offense isn't THIS bad. I dare say, it's impossible for ANY offense to stay THIS bad. So, they will get better. But here's the thing: the decided advatnage this team had over the rest of the team's in the division was front-line pitching.

Now with Lee on the DL with an injury known to linger, and not go away quickly, the calculus is all mucked up. And even if this offense improves to where they ought to be, they are not good enough to overcome 3/5th of the rotation being Worley/Blanton/KK. They'll struggle to win 40% of those games.

So if it's 30 games before Lee comes back (conservative), and they win just 40% of the non-Doc/Cole starts, that's 7-11 in those non-Doc/Cole starts.

Let's say they win 60% of Doc and Cole's starts: that's 7-9. That's 14-16 + their current 7-9, puts them at 21-25. Not an insurmountable hole from which to climb, bt it ain't ideal either.

Should read: "Let's say they win 60% of Doc and Cole's starts: that's 7-5. That's 14-16 + their current 7-9, puts them at 21-25. Not an insurmountable hole from which to climb, bt it ain't ideal either."

awh: "Batting 3rd: .266/.311/.383" Yes, but comparatively those numbers on this team are not bad at all, sadly.

Obviously this team's motivational tactic should be the blood eagle:

"The Blood Eagle was a method of torture and execution that is sometimes mentioned in Norse saga literature. It was performed by cutting the ribs of the victim by the spine, breaking the ribs so they resembled blood-stained wings, and pulling the lungs out through the wounds in the victim's back. Salt was sprinkled in the wounds."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_eagle

Preacher: I know. It's as if he doesn't think 71 is a very impressive number or something.

Bake, the last line of that paragraph actually made me laugh. "Salt was sprinkled in the wounds."

After all that they put the victim through, sprinkling salt in the wounds almost seems superfluous.

Like shooting someone in the head, and then kicking them in the crotch.

Is it time to put Dom Brown in LF?
batting order Jroll, galvis, pence, thome/wiggy/mayberry, dom brown, victorino, ruiz, polly

jroll can't bat 3rd, thome needs ab's or say goodbye to him, same for Mayberry.

bringing up Dom will shake things up.

"Phillies-D-backs: What you need to know"

'Go to sleep instead.'

Phillies are 9th in ESPN's latest power ranking, up 3 spots from last week.

Wow chase is still alive. And he has both legs. Saw him
Ripping balls at chase field.

Phillies are 9th in ESPN's latest power ranking, up 3 spots from last week.

Who compiles that stuff, Dick Enberg? How do you split w/ the friggin' Padres, lose Cliff Lee & still move UP in the rankings?

BAP~ Very Good,

AWH~ I understand everything quite perfectly. What YOU STILL don't understand is that the offense was going to suffer as soon as Howard went down. I realize that you cannot replace your #4 hitter with 1 guy (save Fielder. Pujols etc.) and I'm not syaing they should've done that. What I have been saying is there there WAS help available and we didn't get help.

Now, I also realize that everyone is pressing, and not current performing as we're used to. I also understand that the manager sometimes doesn't know what game he's watching.

The fact is, is that we're 7-9. We already lost 2 games each to the Pirates, Mets, & Padres, who are not going to set the world on fire. I also know that games you lose in April can come back to haunt you in Sept. (see Boston last year).

And no I'm not in the FO, nor do I know what RAJ is allowed to spend etc.

We have excellent starting pitching and for the most part play very good defense. But right now the pitching has to be supported and that's not happening @ < 3 runs pg.

Right now the offense is broken. There is no miracle cure. But let me ask you a simple simple qestion with a simple yes or no answer: All things considered, would the team be producing more if say a Beltran or Cuddyer was in the everyday lineup? If you answer "no" then YOU Sir, are being "hubristic and silly".

Rollins
Pierre LF
Pence
Vic
Mayberry 1st Base
Chooch
Galvis
Polanco
Pitcher

You know your team blows when you're waiting on Fontenot

Fata,

I can't help thinking that pouring salt in the wounds of this team could only be a good thing. It'd be bracing and whatnot.

So, yeah, bring in Bowa as some sort of clubhouse consultant, wearing a gigantic Viking helmet.

Hey, reason for optimism! Murphy's latest blog entry showcases some of the upcoming pitching matchups.

Basically, if this offense can't show a modicum of life in the next week or so, against these starters, they need to be taken out behind the shed and put down.

Perhaps we can get >3 runs/game in the next week???

"The Blood Eagle was a method of torture and execution that is sometimes mentioned in Norse saga literature. It was performed by cutting the ribs of the victim by the spine, breaking the ribs so they resembled blood-stained wings, and pulling the lungs out through the wounds in the victim's back. Salt was sprinkled in the wounds."

The Blood Eagle actually sounds relatively painless compared to the torture the Phillies put their fans through over the last 4 days.

We've been Blood Phanatic-ed.

The small sample side vid was awesome.

But my friends and I have one big problem. We don't know which small sample size to use as a base of expectations for John Mayberry. Is it the second half of last year? (which is the one that I want to) .... or is this year's performance in combo with his other brief outings in the last couple of years in the bigs?

Way too many whiners on this blog this earlier in the season.

Way too many people whining about people whining this earl...all the time.

Yo, new thread

So many guys are batting where they aren't comfortable/used to. There are glaring holes in the order, but I think some guys should be put where they are "used" to. I would try the following:
1 Rollins
2 Pierre
3 Vic
4 Wiggs (brutal)
5 Pence
6 Nix/Mayberry/Polanco
7 Glavis
8 Ruiz
With this order, you put JRoll back where he's comfortable; he's not cutting it batting third. Pierre can then bunt him over or bunt for a hit. Wiggs is bad, but Pence isn't cutting it in the cleanup spot; I'd rather get Pence re-acclimated to the 5-hole. 6 is a disaster. I'd bump Glavis up to 7, to avoid being next to the pitcher, plus he has some speed if Ruiz can drive him in. Ruiz is good hitting 8; he can help turn over the lineup. Hey, can't be any worse than what they are doing right now.

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