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Saturday, April 07, 2012

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"fatally careless": apt phrase

As Denzel would say, explain this to me like I'm a four-year-old. What is the significance of the absence of the 4-seamer? Would he be trying to avoid strain? Or was the pitch maybe just not working in warmups? How many would he normally throw in 8 innings? Would like to hear the spin of the masters.... :-)

mike - You can only speculate why he didn't throw a 4-seamer. The difference is simple. Much harder to hit a pitch that is moving in or away from you than a straight one.

Any MLB-caliber hitter can hit a 89-90 MPH straight fastball over the plate. Unless the pitcher has really good control placing it exactly where he wants, he doesn't have much margin for error.

Stay as far away from Inge as possible. He is the Tigers version of Martinez; A guy who managed to cling onto a major league spot in spite of his abysmal .197/.265/.283 slash line last year. The Phillies have plenty of anemic bats already. There is no need to add another.

BAP: fwiw, fangraphs spent about two straight weeks blasting the torres trade as the dumbest player for player swap in a long time, citing pagan as garbage.

Posted by: lorecore | Saturday, April 07, 2012 at 08:23 AM

This is simply fallacious. If you go on fangraphs, and search a player, all recent articles in which they are mentioned are listed. There is only one article that was written about Pagan on Fangraphs concerning the trade, and it was actually written for Rotographs (which is concerned with fantasy baseball), and in it, they actually laud the Giants for having gotten an offensive upgrade over Torres. An actual quote:

"But there are also numerous differences in their game and in those differences is where Pagan’s edge is found. Again, we’re talking strictly offensive production here. You may think (as most of us do) that Torres brings a better glove to the table and that may be so. But with the bat, the 30 year old Pagan brings plenty more."

lore, I know you don't like fangraphs because you think UZR and WAR are the worst stats ever invented by man, but spreading mendacious propaganda is pretty low.


Inge helped the Tigers quite a lot down the stretch last year. But it would probably be wise to steer clear now.

No interest at all in Inge. If he bats .220 it's considered a good season. Eff that.

I think I was the one who jinxed Ubaldo's perfecto by starting to type a post here... Still got a no-no going though.

Just curious - does anyone have any guesses as to answers to Mike's questions? MG's response doesn't get the job done.

Phlipper-
Doc would answer that question with an icy stare.

The Braves were supposed to be scary.

Halfway through their 3 game series with the Mets, they've mustered 7 hits in 14 innings.

I don't mean to jinx it, but I hope this is a sign of things to come.

Also, we're leading the league in ERA, WHIP, and BAA, already.

Nobody knows how to answer the question because modern baseball fandom is all about providing figures with no meaning or insight.

"redemption" was a fine word to use on Maundy Thursday. Might even be more appropriate tomorrow.

Phils won't send Pete to LV cause then they'd be up S**t's Creek.


You don't know why he didn't throw a 4-seam fastball because no one want asked Halladay after the game to my knowledge. Even if they did, I doubt he would have given a direct answer.

If you look at most of his games last year, Halladay would throw his 4-seam fastball in most of his starts 15-20% of his total pitches.

You would have to run the pitch f/x data but I would imagine that if Halladay feels his cutter/split changeup/curve are working well enough like on Thurs that he can get hitters to chase it/catching enough of the zone to be called a strike that he doesn't use his 4-seam fastball much.

The only person though as to why he didn't throw a single 4-seam fastball is Halladay though. It is really odd because from the games I looked at there wasn't a single start last year where that was the case. At least threw a handful (several or more) every start.

Other piece you would want to see is when does Halladay uses it. The numbers/splits from Fan Graphs aren't exact enough.

I would venture he uses his 4-seam fastball when he needs to throw a strike. Basically I would bet that he uses his 4-seam fastball (say 70-80% of the total 4-seamers he throws) when he is behind in the count especially 2-0 or 3-0.

Against the Pirates, Halladay didn't run a single 3-0 count all day. He only ran 2 2-0 count all day (Alvarez in the 2nd; Presley in the 3rd). Threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of the 27 hitters he faced.

Basically Halladay just dictated and imposed his will on what he was going to throw to almost every single Pirates' hitter. Very few MLB starters are capable of doing that for an entire start over 8 IP.

Blue Jays and Indians refuse to finish a game in 9 innings.

Tonight's lineup vs Karstens:

CF Victorino
3B Polanco
SS Rollins
RF Pence
1B Nix
LF Mayberry Jr.
C Ruiz
2B Galvis
P Lee

Not too bad of a lineup. I'd prefer Vic third and Rollins first, but I'm not going to complain. It's great to see Mayberry starting in Left, even against a Righty.

(Doc is lathering up in the shower with Irish Spring. He whistles the Irish Spring song.)
(Kendrick steps in and starts shower near him)
KK:Geez, great game.
Doc:Thanks kid.
KK:Geez, doc. Why didn't you throw the four seamer?
Blister?
Doc:No.
KK:Tricky elbow?
Doc:Nope.
KK:Chooch see something?
Doc:Not it.
KK:geez, doc. Why?
Doc(turns the water off): Because I can.

I forgot my "This feels like a loss" sign at home. Bummer.

Fatal: eh, maybe it was Dave Cameron tweeting how bad the trade was for the Giants - but i remember them bashing the deal.

Phils -160, o/u 6.5

Vic
Polly
Rollins
Pence
Nix(1b)
Mayberry(lf)
Ruiz
Galvis

I might be in minority but I like nix in that spot vs RHP. In all honestly, hes got the best chance to hit a HR on the active roster. Pence has a slightly better career AB/HR(25.1), but vs RHP Nix has the edge.

Since I'm at the game, I wish Thomw were starting, but I'm okay with Nix. Thank goodness it's Mayberry and not Pierre!

lorecore, I apologize, Fangraphs did write about the trade. For some reason, it didn't come up when I searched for Pagan or Torres, but when I did a google search, I found it.

In it, Fangraphs lauds the trade as did the other article I cited from RotoGraphs. The article was written by Jack Moore, not Dave Cameron (from whom I couldn't find any tweets bashing Pagan, only tweets upholding Torres as an underrated outfielder). The last paragraph summarizes quite well the sentiment:

"The addition of Pagan gives the Giants a real center fielder with a semi-reliable bat, something their roster sorely lacked in 2010. It allows them to play Melky Cabrera at a position more suiting to his glove as well, as the prospect of him sprinting after balls in the cavernous AT&T Park outfield is a gloomy one. Pagan’s acquisition was not a sexy trade by any means, but the Giants added another useful piece towards rebuilding their tattered offense for the 2012 season."

fatal: guess i remembered wrong, I've heard Torres lauded many a time so I must have wrongfully put the two together.

And for your earlier post on my thoughts of WAR/UZR - i am 100% in favor of those stats and any like them. The times I criticize them is when people use them as the full picture and sway their opinion/judgement on a player blindly otherwise.

And actually, i think pitcher WAR is a great measure and like to use it when comparing pitchers season(s) more than almost any other stat.

Pagan isn't a good CF though. He's average at best there. Here's really a corner OF. He a better fit for the Giants than Torres was because of his bat.

Surprised thought that people are overlooking R. Ramirez. He was a valuable piece for the Giants since they acquired in the '10 deadline.

Worked with Dave Righetti last year who encourage him to move away from his fastball a bit more & mix in his slider (which is a really good pitch) more.

Thought it was a nice trade for the Mets and thought Alderson did a really nice job of rebuilding that bullpen on limited bucks.

No stud arms but a bullpen filled with a number of average-to-above average arms which is better than what the Mets trotted out their most of last season.

First of what are likely to be many of stupid comments by Ozzie Guillen:

"I get drunk" after every game win or lose.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7786165

Man, Cabrera and Fielder are going to be scary as hell in that lineup for the Tigers. Both have 2 HRs on the day, and all 4 have been crushed.

New thread.

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