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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

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Yeah, I'm not sure what Wigginton has done to incur the wrath of anyone, especially offensively. I guess you can get on him for the error against SF, but the failure in that game was more on the hitters failing to score a damn run.

Is there anyone that really expected or hoped his slash line would be above where it is now? Enjoy it while you can until he swoons in the second half of the season.

One of the worst parts about their current performance is the laughable schedule they've encountered so far, yet still are 3 games under .500

Having trips to PGH, SF and AZ on the early schedule scared me even before we found out how lame our offense is.

Wiggington, Pierre, & Nix are not the problem with the lineup. Mayberry, Polanco, Rollins & Galvis are the problem. They all pickup some value on defense, but include the pitcher's spot, and more than half the everyday lineup has been abysmal. Everyone else is just sorta average-ish at the moment or about what you'd expect.

Wiggington has done his job with the bat. In addition to the boot in SF, I'd add an error in the 3d game in Pittsburgh that wasn't called an error. Stutes struck out Alvarez and Schneider didn't receive it cleanly. Schneider made a low but catchable throw to first, which Wigginton dropped. No error charged. Pirates ended up scoring a couple 2 out runs in that inning to start their comeback in the win.

Mr. Howard on Twitter 1 min ago "Good report. Be back working out in a week. Florida coming soon"
Useless RBIs coming your way!!

I hate RBI's!!!!

"Useless RBIs coming your way!!"

Easily. Replaceable.

I like when theories get tested like the other day when there was a trade defense for offense at third debate and then Wigg played third and it killed us. Now we've had a month to test the RBIs don't matter theory. It turns out they do. Who would have guessed?

Fat - That was kind of a weak overall article by Baer in response to the points that Rosenthal brought up.

The most valid one by far is the schema used to classify the various types of Pitch f/x data into specific pitches. You would need more insight though than provided to see how the schema was changed over time from 2010 to 2012 and just how much the percentage of various pitch types changed over time using the different scoring schemas.

Don't care about identifying a new pitch type because Halladay hasn't added one. That comment is completely irrelevant to Rosenthal's article.

Halladay's velocity is down from last year in April and definitely down from 2 years ago in April. Why bring up a point that a general pitcher's overall velocity is lower in March/April? What relevance does that directly have and why bring that up when you have data available to compare Halladay against?

Halladay's velocity was low last April too and it rose a bit as the weather warmed. Still never quite reached what it did in the summer of '10. That's the more relevant conclusion to draw from the data at hand here.

Rosenthal wrote a nice article on the data at hand, combined it with a few anon scout quotes (take or leave it but I always appreciate reading those) and put it out there.

WARNING: DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT look up keloids on the internet.

Hope I'm not too late. . . ahem, cough.

Sorry.

gobaystars: there is no "rbi's don't matter theory" the theory is that they are context driven and thus a poor measuring stick for individual performance as a hitter cannot make the hitters in front of him get on base.

Halladay has been a little lucky too so far. His BABIP is only .213 and (well below his rate of .294 last 2 years in a Phills' uniform), stranding runners at a 83% clip (well above career norms), and he hasn't allowed a HR on a FB yet.

The results have been really solid so far for Halladay but he has also enjoyed some good luck too.

Halladay has basically gone out in every start since Rosenthal published his crap article and completely shat on the subtext in that article. Why MG feels the need to white-knight for Bowtie is beyond me.

MG, Rosenthal was implying that something is wrong with Halladay. Do you agree?

Sorry, I meant the first crap article. Not the second crap article, which I wasn't aware existed until now.

I don't dispute the facts in the article, but I definite dispute this, from the weasel:

"I wasn’t saying anything was wrong with Halladay then."

He absolutely implied it in his first article. You could argue this second article is him just attempting to defend himself after Halladay proved the speculation to be garbage.

The "I never directly said it" defense is about the most irresponsible excuse you can use as a reporter.

Please any baseball fans with a real mind, and call sports radio shows stop giving dumb trade scenarios for this team. I have heard everything from Cole for longoria and Cole for kemp etc. Stop with the idiot trade ideas and get a clue.

... the theory is [RBI] they are context driven and thus a poor measuring stick for individual performance as a hitter cannot make the hitters in front of him get on base.

Which conveniently neglects the fact that (a) the goal of the game is to score more runs than the other team, & (b) that unless said base runners somehow reach home plate, they've been entirely useless. Currently the Phillies are 11th in the NL in TB, & 15th in Runs. I can't speak for everyone here, but I know I wish this team had a player or three capable of actually driving a few of those potential runs in. One might argue that RBI are a "poor measuring stick" for comparing one hitter to another, but doing so has led to a most unfortunate byproduct: namely, essentially negating what is definitely a skill, & a very valuable one at that.

"any baseball fans with a real mind, and call sports radio shows"

No such thing.

Iceman - Did you actually read the Rosenthal article?

"I wasn’t saying anything was wrong with Halladay then. I’m not saying anything is wrong with him now. And yes, it’s too early to reach any kind of definitive conclusions."

Seems pretty clear to me.

As for the data, maybe there are some issues with the pitch classification schema used especially if it has changed over time each year. If it is same from 2010 to 2012, it's fine. It's a valid point though.

As for the officials observations about body language, etc, they are just two experienced people's observations. That's all. Since they are subjective and only involve 2 people, I wouldn't put a ton of stock in them either way.

The data though isn't that arguable. It shows his velocity is down compared to the previous 2 Aprils, he is throwing his 2-seam fastball less, and using his cutter/splitter more. It might just be 4 starts but he was doing the same thing too in spring training.

It is definitely a trend that merits more attention if I was an opposing scout/team facing Halladay.

GTown: The downgrading of RBIs comes from the Howard haters on this blog, of whom there are a ton.

This is absolutely the best post of the day:

Steve: "I'm sorry, is Howard like the complete opposite of Wolverine or something?"

Cody Ransom, batting .429

Just sayin'

RBI are a pretty useless descriptive statistic especially in regards to how a player potentially performed in situations with runners on base or in scoring position. It is up there with 'Saves' as a useless stat.

No. 1 - .257/.286/.338 (.624 OPS)
11th in NL and 19th in MLB
No. 2 - .194/.260/.209 (.469 OPS) 16th in NL and 29th in MLB
No. 3 - .254/.292/.590 (.590 OPS)
16th (last) in NL and 28th in MLB

Pierre, Polanco, and JRoll respectively have gotten most of the ABs in these lineup spots with JRoll getting almost all of the ABs in #3. Vic has been #1 and #2.

It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.

The only other lineup right now has 1-3 spots all with OBP of .300 or less is the A's.

Their dead in AL in runs at 2.89 R/G and by a wide margin. Even the crappy Royals are averaging 3.57 R/G.

Did someone seriously suggest Cole Hamels for Matt Kemp? HAHA!

Interesting pc by Dave Murphy, and JJ (radio guy). They both said on scale one to 10 for playoffs both gave low numbers. Chase not back till June and Howard July. Being said if philles are 10 games below .500 or out of wild card race. Do you use Cole and Shane as trade chips and start building for this year. I was hoping may be date for both, but with that said this season is def over. With this cream puff sched and this is where they sit. I would be shocked.

One thing that leaps out to me right now is to put Chooch in the #2 hole and move Polanco down to the #7 hole.

If Cholly wants to play Pierre in the leadoff spot since he is hitting for the time being, this is lineup I wouldn't mind seeing Cholly trot out there:

Pierre
Chooch
Vic
Pence
Wigginton
JRoll
Polanco
Galvis

Obviously have to tweak that on a nightly basis but that is probably the best lineup they can send out there right now.

Its tough to watch Cholly though with his conformity and strong preference for a similar lineup card everyday.

"BL is debating about two guys that I could care less about as the answer to the question "Who was truly last years NL MVP." Despite my lack of caring, I thought that Kemp should have won it."

An African American who clearly deserved the MVP was overlooked in favor of a caucasian of the hebrew faith. Imagine if most of the HOF voters were African American and they chose an African American who was clearly undeservnig. Wouldn't caucasians have a right to gripe???

If they are 9-10 games out of the WC at the trading deadline, I hope Amaro has the stones to trade players and be a 'seller' instead of going after and paying a premium price for a bat.

Lots of baseball to be played though before they get to that point. Wouldn't worry about that. Should have a better idea of where they stand at Memorial Day. If they are several games below .500, struggled vs. NL East opponents, and have remained this putrid on offense then things will be grim regardless of Utley/Howard coming back.


Braun winning the MVP attempt is just another obvious attempt to keep the black man down by MLB.

It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup
It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineupIt wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup.......

WOW! So the issue isn't the injured 4 hitter it's the fact that Polanco and Rollins are hitting 2 and 3.

Pence in the line up tonight. So is Orr, batting second. Riiiiiiiiiight!

It doesn't matter if Pence plays tonight if Rollins hits 3 and Polanco 2...

hook: Good plan. Deal Utley to an AL team, where he can DH, for prospects. Vic and Cole can be dealt to NL teams for Cuddyer and David Wright.

With a plan like that, what could possibly go wrong?

The funny thing is that Charlie has actually trotted out, what, like 13 different lineups of regulars already?

So, he's willing to "tinker," but not use actual OBP data as any sort of direction in said tinkering?

poll: Not sure why you're on a baseball blog since you clearly know little of baseball history.

It is very, very hard for a player on a losing team to win the MVP no matter how good a season he has.

You need to educate yourself, my friend, and put aside your bigoted thoughts.

Pierre, Orr, Rollins, Pence, Vic, Wiggy (3B), Nix (1B), Schneider, Worley


Pete Orr: Table setter!!!

This also all but guarantees that Pence's DL stint is pushed out roughly 10 days later than it should be.

"An African American who clearly deserved the MVP was overlooked in favor of a caucasian of the hebrew faith. Imagine if most of the HOF voters were African American and they chose an African American who was clearly undeservnig. Wouldn't caucasians have a right to gripe???"

Solely for the sake of argument, I'll assume that there is a sliver of a plausible point in there somewhere. But what on earth does Braun's belonging to "the hebrew faith" have anything to do with that point -- unless your point was the familiar antisemitic creed that the media, who did the voting, is controlled by Jews?

WP: With RH Collmenter pitching, except for Pierre, Orr, Wiggy and Schneider, that's not a bad lineup.

Cholly has trotted out different lineups but Pierre/Polanco/JRoll have gotten most of the ABs in their respective 1/2/3 spots:

No. 1: Pierre 45 ABs, Vic 26 ABs, Mayberry 2, Polanco 1
No. 2: Polanco 53 ABs, Vic 13 ABs
No. 3: JRoll 66 ABs, Nix 1 ABs

Top 3 spots have given them an OBP of .279. That is horrendous.

Again, it wouldn't matter if Howard was hitting #4 because his RBI opportunities generally would be limited.

Pence has had 44 runners on base and delivered 7 RBIs.

"Pierre, Orr, Rollins, Pence, Vic, Wiggy (3B), Nix (1B), Schneider, Worley."

And here I thought that polly's post was the most disgusting thing I'd read all day . . .

"except for Pierre, Orr, Wiggy and Schneider, that's not a bad lineup."

Except for hitting the iceberg, the Titanic's maiden voyage went off without a hitch.

Good a night as any to play Orr especially against a finesse RHP pitcher. One type of pitcher Orr has some chance of success against. Not a bad call by Cholly tonight.

Hitting him #2 though. Ugh.

Why the hell is Vic batting #5 and Orr batting #2?

We need a contact guy to hit in the #2 hole even if he is a lousy hitter and chances it gives our #2 best hitter one less AB.

Does the fact that Pence is playing mean his MRI showed nothing wrong, or did they forego the MRI, I wonder?

So much for the hope that Charlie was weaning Worley off of Schneider, after his last start (where he looked just fine with Chooch).

Should we expect a DL stint for Ruiz, too?

It wouldn't really matter right now even if Howard were in the lineup in the #4 spot if Cholly continues to insist that Polanco #2 and JRoll hit #3.

That's not ideal, to be sure, but I take issue w/ the reasoning. Pierre has 16 H (tied for 2nd most on the team), & even w/ Polanco & Rollins in the lineup the Phillies are tied for 3rd fewest GIDP in the NL. Howard would get his share of ABs w/ runners on ... besides which, there's also a way in which to score called the "Home Run". Unlike anyone on the current roster, a healthy Ryan Howard hits those. His presence might not make a significant difference, but to assert it wouldn't matter at all is overstating the case a bit.

I figured Orr of the .857 OPS might get a start, but to give Rollins a day off, not our 22 year old.

According to the radio broadcast last night, Victorino's HR was the first non-solo HR of the year for the Phillies.

Again, using Nix at first base. He's an above-average defensive outfielder and a terrible defensive first baseman, and yet he's only seen 2 innings in the outfield, vs. 32 at first.

I do not go back to Beerleaguer to sit still, remain quiet, and enjoy ease and comfort ...

I glory in the conflict, that I may hereafter exult in the victory. I know that victory is certain. I go, turning my back upon the ease, comfort, and respectability which I might maintain even here ...

Still, I will go back, for the sake of my brethren. I go to suffer with them; to toil with them; to endure insult with them; to undergo outrage with them; to lift up my voice in their behalf; to speak and write in their vindication; and struggle in their ranks for the so-called "Kemp M-V-P Award" which shall yet be achieved.

What I do not understand is why conversation on that esteemed site so often devolves into blather regarding this new game of base ball. Was it not first and foremost intended to be a forum for the discussion of civil rights issues? And of what relevance is the height of a "third base man"?

1-3 hitters have a .279 OBP. It doesn't matter if Howard/Pence is hitting cleanup if you don't have baserunners on base because of a pathetic OBP.

FWIW, per Zolecki, Pence says he woke up feeling fine this morning, and the MRI showed no structural damage.

Also per Zolecki, Lee has thrown the last few days and said his oblique is getting better.

Preacher: Yup. And the Black Knight just has a flesh wound.

Look, if you can't accept the fact that African Americans are clearly underrepresented in the BBWAA while a caucasian hebrew was voted MVP while clearly NOT deserving, you are not being honest with yourself. There was no justification for it other than the good old boys system.

And here I thought that polly's post was the most disgusting thing I'd read all day . . .

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 06:21 PM

It hurts when you find out you a bigot. no need to lash out at me.

Ummmm, even we don't have any comment on this current topic....

This is almost too silly to engage, but when Rollins won the MVP in '07 over a clearly-deserving David Wright, was that because of a pro-black bias? When Votto won the MVP in '10 over a probably-deserving Pujols, was it because he swept the Canadian vote?

For whatever reason (probably an odd interpretation of the word "valuable"), players on non-playoff teams seldom win the MVP. (The last non-playoff player to win the award? Ryan Howard.)

polly: The writers denied Ted Williams several MVP's because he wouldn't talk to the them. They have always been an imperfect bunch who have given many dubious awards. I ignore them. Better for my blood pressure.

Polly,

Your posts are asinine. What is a "caucasian hebrew?" Hebrew is a language spoken in Israel. Braun is not Israeli, nor does he speak Hebrew. He is Jewish. Please explain why his religion is relevant to who was selected MVP?

That,s really the lineup?

.....

Who wrote that lineup on the line up card?

That would be Charlie

It was he...


Nah couldnt be...

Pujols whined like a little bitch about not winning the '06 NL MVP Award because the Cardinals made the playoffs & the Phillies did not, even though Philadelphia finished the season w/ a better record than St. Louis. That was the first indication I had that Pujols is, in fact, a colossal assh*le.

I think they just wanted to elevate Baseball's Jewish Hall of FAme periodical to a pamphlet instead of a flyer.

Seriously, polly's gripe is going to draw replies? If you're concerned about African Americans being better represented in baseball, or winning MVP awards, go start a stick ball game in a predominately black neighborhood like 5 days a week.

GTown, that's actually a great point. Most of the writers, who voted for Howard, didn't know that the Phils weren't going to make the playoffs that year, while the Cards would. Even further proof that the MVP almost always comes from a contender.

Note, the Dodgers were no where near contenders last season.

And that's all I'm saying about a stupid topic brought forth by a clear troll.

Due to another engagement, I'm probably going to be tuning into the game about 10 minutes after the first pitch.

I'm anxious to see if we're out of it by then.

In this day and age, the hate spewed by Polly, or whatever his ID is- is so incredulous

How about discussing the issues w/o spewing hatred? Everyone is entitled to an opinion - just stick to the issue w/o the other unnecessary stuff...

Are you f'n kidding me right now with this lineup?

Howard needs to be sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber, every night, for the rest of his contract.

Last nite, LA and Franzke were expecting an emergency long man to be called up today. I guess Rube didn't want to spring for the airfare. Hope Worley goes 7 tonite. This feels like a slugfest.

"...while a caucasian hebrew..."

As a member of the tribe, I find always get a kick out of it when anti-Semites start referring to "hebrews."

Next we'll hear that Rod Carew only won the MVP because his wife was Jewish.

Its hard to see racism when you're White.

The Phillies are gonna score 6 runs & Charlie will be happier than the time when he was 10 & found a dead armadillo on the side of the road & it fed the whole family for a week & we'll be stuck w/ this lineup for the rest of the year.

"Its hard to see racism when you're White."

Why would you possibly think that? I'm white, and I don't think it makes it hard to see racism. Being male doesn't make it difficult for me to see sexism.

It's one thing to act out of prejudices or even to be blind to your own prejudices. It's quite another to wear your prejudice on your sleeve like a badge.

BAP may be inclined to extend you a hypothetical point for the sake of argument. I might be willing to do the same, if you hadn't started with the "hebrews" reference. I've seen it before in these types of contexts, and it has always been a marker for anti-Semites. I'm willing to consider that the correlation isn't 100%, but it's close enough to justify making that assumption about you.

Are the Flyers playing tonite? I've already gotten 4 bonus games on my $14. cable because they bumped the Phils off of CSN, which I don't get.

goody: Nope. The Flyers are waiting for the next round of the playoffs to begin.

Dave - there are no armadillos in western Virginia. WhileI don't recommend travelling below the Mason Dixon with your particular cultural handicap, I do recommend obtaining some familiarity with the flora and fauna of teh south if you do.

Hugh: I hope it didn't hurt too badly when you had your sense of humor removed.

This racial discussion should liven things up tonight. Just curious in regards to some other sports: should white players feel that there is a concerted effort against them due to the fact that blacks are overrepresented in both football and basketball?

Dave, I agree with Hugh (did I just type that?).

Your cultural bigotry is astounding for someone who obviously thinks he's a cultured, enlightened person from the Northeast.

Yo, game chat up!

Dave - I don't agree with awh. I was just fvcking around figuring you're used to being the butt of jokes.

Hugh: Not a problem, & I am. Nothing wrong w/ a little banter. In fact, I happened to
spend 10 full years of my life residing below Mason-Dixon, including 5 in North Central Florida (which, if you're not familiar, is a lot like Alabama w/out teeth or the charming accent). I've also got close relatives in NC. There are actually quite a few things I miss about it -- mostly that some of the best food I've ever had came from the American South -- but all-in-all I'm content to be back home in Filthadelphia.

awh: I know, I know ... I should have gone w/ 'possum, shouldn't I?

It was just a bad joke on my part. I got a buzz on and laughed at myself. I once claimed to have struck an armadillo on the road in Kansas. Twice int eh last decade I've received childrens books about an armadillo with my photo inserted and the story changed.

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