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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

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So can Tuffy join the team in Arizona or should they wait till they get back to Philly?

Well, to be fair, I dont think anyone living in Reading is actually "winning" in the long run.

I forget if I posted the comment on here or somewhere else but I'll say it again:

You know your team blows when you're waiting on Mike Fontenot.

And I still can't believe he didn't win the MVP last year. He had a bWAR of friggin 10. TEN!

Fangraphs didn't love him quite as much, but he still had an fWAR of 8.7. That's just crazy good.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Braun was Chosen by the baseball writers. Kemp was not.

"Well, to be fair, I dont think anyone living in Reading is actually "winning" in the long run."

No, no they are not. It's a dump and it has passed the point of no return.

The R Phils' stadium is nice, though.

Scotchman: I think I saw "Waiting for Fontenot" the ending was a tad anti-climactic.

Roster still would be better off with Fontenot on the roster or even Luna than Orr.

On a team that is really struggling, you look for incremental improvement where you can get it.

The funny thing as Iceman noted is that the guys Amaro brought in are hitting somewhat:

Wigginton/Pierre/Nix/Thome

34-123 with a line of .276/.331/.358

The issue that they haven't hit with much any power (1 HR; 6 XBH)

The guys that are killing the lineup are the regulars including JRoll/Polanco/Pence. I give Pence a pass on the road trip because he is playing hurt and has a bum shoulder.

JRoll has scuffled badly on this road trip and Polanco is on pace to have the worst month in his career. JRoll will rebound somewhat, he is a notorious slow starter through May, and always been a much better hitter at CBP.

With each increasing night where Polanco literally struggles to hit the ball out of the infield, it is harder to think he will rebound much at all. Not quite this bad but he just might be done due be able to contribute offensively in a meaningful way.

If he is now a sub .250 hitter with zero power and good defense, he is essentially Abe Nunez. Polanco's defense is better but No-Hit actually took more BBs & did a better job of working counts.

Leandro's 0BB/12K so far just keeps reinforcing his poor plate discipline that has held him back from being a legit prospect the past few years.

Had enough of a good start in a shortened 2011 to earn the promotion to Reading, but simply showing impressive power from a small frame isn't going to cut it any more. Even doing 1(more BB or less K) would be enough to gain some serious consideration as long as he keeps his usual power/speed numbers up.

Mayberry did have 2 hits last night vs Wiley and hit the ball hard a couple of times.

.235/.235/.353 in 17 ABs vs LHP
.125/.125/.125 in 16 ABs vs RHP

He's a guy though that I would try to make a strict platoon guy as much as possible. If he gets hot, you play him a bit more vs. RHP.

Even as messed up as his swing looks & the amount of garbage he is chasing especially down & away, Mayberry is a MLB-caliber player but just as a part-timer who can play 1B/LF (maybe RF but not ideally) and faces a majority of LHP pitching (ideally 60-65% of his ABs).

"I give Pence a pass on the road trip because he is playing hurt and has a bum shoulder."

He only hurt his shoulder on Sunday, and hasn't played since.

I'm not giving him a pass. He's been sub par, to say the least.

Pence has had three hitless games after 2 weeks of being the best hitter in a weak lineup. No coincidence that they lost all three games.

Cubs Rule V pick from Phillies Lendy Castillo getting shelled so far in his first 5 appearances.

"Braun was Chosen by the baseball writers. Kemp was not."

Yeah, that was clearly it. Ryan Braun, with his .994 OPS and 33 stolen bases for a division winner, won MVP only because the media is controlled by Jews.

The Phils are 2.5 games out of the second wild card spot. So they have that going for them. Which is nice?.

WP - "On Monday, however, Manuel suggested the injury may have occurred last week in San Francisco when Pence hit the right field wall making a catch.

Pence denied that, but his numbers since then suggest he hasn't been at his best.

Pence is just 3 for 23 (.130) with one extra-base hit since hitting the wall, and he's hitless in his last 15 at-bats."

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20120424/SPORTS01/204240346/Pence-out-lineup-shoulder-injury

Pence got hurt on that play he made going into the wall in RF at AT&T Park. My bet is that he didn't say anything because of his machismo nonsense and his desire to stay in the lineup to help this scuffling offense.

If we had to point fingers for the first 10th of the season, I'd have to point at Rollins.

I am one of the first to give him credit for what he's done for the franchise, so I'll be one of the first to point out that he may have potentially crippled it going forward. If he continues to put up Freddy Gavlis numbers, then he royally screws us since we already have a Freddy Galvis.

It's great how the Phillies can't even come up w/ a coherent story, agreed upon by all, for Pence's shoulder. No wonder the Utley & Howard situations have been such a friggin' debacle.

BAP, do you think that Braun was a better player than Kemp last year. Remember, Braun put up his numbers playing the majority of his games in Miller Park, whereas Kemp played the majority of his games in Dodger stadium. Also, Kemp played CF, and by all acounts, played it well, whereas Braun played LF, and by all accounts was either average or poor. So if there offensive numbers were comparable (which they were), how is Kemp not the clear cut MVP?

Bobby D - Yup. With the 2nd WC this year, it is literally going to be next to impossible for this team to 'truly be out of it.'

Only NL teams this year that have no shot at the playoffs are the Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Padres. Probably a list you could have gotten every MLB writer to agree on before the season started. You could probably add the Mets to that list too.

If they can hang around .500 until they get a few players back including Utley/Howard/Lee, they will be alright. The kicker though is that this offense is putrid (worst in MLB without Pence) and I don't know what Utley/Howard give them when they come back. If they combine to give the Phils around an average offense from a run production standpoint, they'll be fine.

If they are somewhat below that (10th-12th), then it will be a real push to make the playoffs & they will need to pick up an impact bat at the trading deadline.

I did a bad job in the above post of referencing Rollins' contract, which is where i meant to go with it.

Basically, Rollins is playing like Freddy Galvis so far, and if he continues, he will be overpaid by $31.5M of his 3yr/$33M deal.

JRoll has gotten out to a really crummy start but they have played a ton of games on the road & he always underperforms offensively in April/May.

If he is still scuffling along come August, then it probably is a lost year for him.

"Basically, Rollins is playing like Freddy Galvis so far, and if he continues, he will be overpaid by $31.5M of his 3yr/$33M deal."

Let's start making projections for the life of a 3 year contract after 17 games.

Fat: My comment had nothing to do with who deserved MVP. I was responding to polly's not-so-subtle hint that Braun won it because the media is controlled by Jews -- which, I hope you'd agree, is both asinine and offensive.

Personally, I think Kemp deserved MVP. I thought it at the time, and I especially think it now that we know Ryan Braun was juicing. But the case for Braun was more than defensible. His OPS was slightly higher & he played for a division winner which, whether rightly or wrongly, many voters view as an important consideration.

Rollins does have a nice platoon split going.

He's got a .769 OPS vs ?HP.

These are JRoll numbers since '09

.254/.315/.398 (.713 OPS).

He's really a ~.250 hitter whose power has ebbed considerably from his peak years ('04-'08).

Question is just how much his power has ebbed. Won't find that out though until he plays a bunch of games at CBP and it gets warm this summer.

If JRoll is a guy who really is just primarily a singles hitter now, then yeah Amaro overpaid because JRoll's defense is going to compensate for his lagging offense.

Regardless, he is a guy who is really miscast as a #3 hitter right now. Just as much as Polanco is #2.

I really wish Cholly would take off his 'veteran sentiment' glasses and realize this. Much rather see Chooch hit #2 right now. Put Vic #3 or lead him off. Pence #4 when he's back.

Polanco should be not hitting higher than #7 in the order. I would put him #7 and Galvis #8 and order the rest of the lineup accordingly.

BAP, I didn't read that into polly's statement, but you may be referencing a bigger issue of which I'm ot aware.

Either way, Kemp deserved the MVP. Baseball is not like basketball, where you can facilitate and make your teammates better. All you can do is catch the balls that come your way, throw them to the right people and hit the pitches you see. If your team sucks, they suck. If Kemp were on the Brewers last year, they would have won 100 games, in my opinion.

BAP, personally, I feel that being the best player on a division winner carries a lot of weight, probably even more than being the best player for a middling/rebuilding team - at least in the media (it's a better "story" than some dude on a crappy team winning MVP). The OPS only serves as a handy little supporting piece of evidence.

It's a broken, imperfect system, for sure, but it's been that way forever.

Still no word on Howard and visit to specialist?

"BAP, I didn't read that into polly's statement."

The statement was: "Braun was Chosen by the baseball writers. Kemp was not." Note the use of the word "chosen" and note, specifically, the capitalization of the word.

We're, like, thisfreakinclose to a Will Schweitzer reappearance. Let it go, I beg of you.

Time to see what the Indians want for Chisenhall.

BAP & GBrett~ From the last thread. Thanks for the updates on Truck & Utley.

GTown: Yeah, agreed.

Nonetheless, that was a blatant anti-semitic remark & deserved to be called as such. It is not as though I went actively looking to play the race/ethnicity card, the way Schweitzer is so fond of doing.

MG, you're a plagiarizer. :)

Has anyone caught any LV games this season? Aside from my daily check of the box score, anyone have any firsthand insight into Brown's fielding? Just 1 error on the season sounds good to me, but curious if he's made any impressive plays, or what his range has looked like.

b_a_p: Understood, & agreed.

"...Braun put up his numbers playing the majority of his games in Miller Park, whereas Kemp played the majority of his games in Dodger stadium."


Fatti, sice when did "half", or "fifty percent (50%)" become a "majority"?

I don't think we have to worry about a Schweitzer appearance until school lets out this summer.

"BAP, I didn't read that into polly's statement, but you may be referencing a bigger issue of which I'm ot aware."

FAtti, I didn't read that into polly's statement either - i.e. the media being controlled by Jews - but polly's choice to capitalize the word "chosen" was clearly a reference to the fact that Braun is Jewish.

Either interpretation is not good. It was an inappropriate, as well as asinine and offensive.

Should also note that Braun was using PEDs.

"He's got a .769 OPS vs ?HP."

What's a "?HP"? Jim Abbot?

PEDs or no PEDs, Kemp deserved the MVP because he was basically Braun's equal offensively and plays a far more important position defensively. And he plays it well.

i didnt catch the 'Chosen' wordplay either, im glad BAP pointed out so I can now appropriately laugh.

Our beloved Phillies are floundering and BL is debating about two guys that I could care less about as the answer to the question "Who was truly last years NL MVP." Despite my lack of caring, I thought that Kemp should have won it.

I also think that the racist/religious bigotry stuff doesn't belong on BL.

Ruben Amaro Jr.'s full statement on Ryan Howard: "After seeing the wound specialist in Philadelphia yesterday, Ryan Howard’s wound has gotten smaller and is healing. We’ve been advised to limit his activities for one more week to allow it to continue to heal. We hope that he will be able to re-start his baseball activities thereafter."

Pence undergoing MRI on shoulder, Howard has been given 1 week before able to perform 'baseball activities' if wound continues on current pace.

Did they use the jaws of life to open up Ryan's leg? I'm not sure I've heard of the size of someone's wound being so prevalent before.

I was kind of hoping that EFF forgot to close the italics tag, just to add some spice to BL that didn't have to do with the ineptitude of our offensive.

Thanks for sharing the news EastFallowfield!

"Baseball activities", as has been pointed out, is an odd phrase. I assume they mean practicing skills like fielding and hitting. As well as conditioning - running and stretching. Right?

To Ryan's injury: Heal, heel!

$10 Pence goes on the DL.

The longest heal of a wound EVER, a viscous stab wound would of healed by now

I'm sorry, is Howard like the complete opposity of Wolverine or something? There's not a lot of tissue that needs to heal back there

opposite*

Who wins tonight showdown?

The immovable object (Phils' hitters which again might trot out the worst lineup in MLB without Pence tonight) or the irresistible force (Collmenter's pitches seems to be finding bats at a healthy clip including 7 XHBS in just 53 ABs).

Still don't understand though why the line has moved in the Phils' direction today with the likelihood of Pence being out. Strange.

"$10 Pence goes on the DL."

You're on!

More likely that he'll try to play in the next 2 or 3 days, THEN realize he's hurt, where the Phils will wait another 8 days before finally putting him on the DL and clearing the roster spot.

MG- They scored in the 9th last night- might be a harbinger of the onset of our long awaited hittin'season.

awh, it was a figure of speech. Yeesh!

Even if it wasn't, the majority of the games he played were in Miller Park. Even though he played 73 games at home last year and 77 on the road, those 77 road games came in a bunch of different ballparks. So, in a sense, a vast majority of his games were in Miller Park.

Nitpicky...

Bigger douche:

Person who is a 'doom and gloomer' without having a few yucks or the person who castigates & rebukes a 'doom and gloomer' again without any humor.

More interested in just watching the team and seeing what can be tweaked/done with the available resources.

"They scored in the 9th last night- might be a harbinger of the onset of our long awaited hittin'season."

I'm assuming this is in jest?

Otherwise, we're to take a 1 inning sample size and project that it will trump the previous 16 game sample size, which has been widely lauded as being far too small to draw any conclusions.

"...Braun put up his numbers playing the majority of his games in Miller Park, whereas Kemp played the majority of his games in Dodger stadium."

Fatti, sice when did "half", or "fifty percent (50%)" become a "majority"?

It's the majority because the other 50% isn't a single stadium.

Biggest douche:

Person who calls everyone on this blog a douche.

;)

"Phillies manager Charlie Manuel hasn’t ruled out the possibility of playing Chase Utley at first base when he's activated from the disabled list, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. If Utley returns before Ryan Howard, the Phillies could mix things up defensively. "We'll figure that out when we get there," Manuel said.

If utley gets back before howard...that's like saying if I had a Unicorn, i might think about riding it.

Having a unicorn and not riding it is like having a left handed hitter whose platoon splits indicate he's much better against LHP, but always starting him against RHP.

No one in their right mind would do such a thing.

mm, that actually kind of makes sense, but it's a very short term plan.

Basically, it sounds like Utley's pain is at it's worst when he's fielding. Otherwise, he's already at the cusp of "resuming baseball activities" (which Howard is still a week away from). I suspect that Howard's injury will take a bit longer to recover from as it relates to swinging a bat, too.

It's feasible that Utley is 'back' first, and limiting his need to range at 2B would only serve to help. However, Howard won't be too far behind (hopefully), in which case you only get a very limited amount of time to minimize the fielding impact on Utley's knee. Tough call.

"he played 73 games at home last year and 77 on the road, those 77 road games came in a bunch of different ballparks. So, in a sense, a vast majority of his games were in Miller Park."

I believe this would be more accurately characterized as a plurality, not a majority.

So, in a sense, a vast majority of his games were in Miller Park.

Nitpicky...

Uh, there's a nice word for that -- plurality.

I have been honored to share this Pedantic Moment with you.

Howard accidentally brushed up against the counter at a Subway while making a commercial and his wound got a full dose of c-diff, streph and Ebola. It is bound to slow down progress.

WP: I agree that's a short term plan. I also think that Howard will still be back before Utley in any scenario.

Raul's Grandpa: aka "the tuna"

Laynce Nix is actually really terrible. Somehow Charlie thinks he's a "professional hitter" type, but he's not at all.

He has a career 85 OPS+. That's very bad. His career OBP is under .289. He plays only corner positions, and doesn't hit nearly enough to hold down any of them, and rumors that he can play CF are just that, rumors. He's also 31, and therefore probably declining.

He is by far Rube's stupidest pickup this off-season.

If Pence isn't in the lineup, I almost would take a lineup of theoretical Juan Pierres tonight and drop bunts down the third base line repeatedly.

Roberts/Ransom stink defensively and Collmenter isn't the best fielding pitcher. If Senor Blanco is behind the plate, even better.

Unleash a torrent of running action although the issue is that Montero has a pretty good arm.

Charlie watched Nix take BP. Thought bubble appears over head,"That feller plays jist like David Justice."

Nix isn't great, but he isn't terrible either. The 2nd year of his contract is a little odd, but in his averages you're including a bunch of years where he played very few games. Granted, that can be used to say he isn't a major league player, but if you look at his stats, the years he's played a bunch of games, he's actually decent.

Plurality, shmurality...

I think "plurality" is the word you folks are looking for.

If I had to 'guess' when Howard/Utley are back, it is both sometime in early-to-mid June within short order with Utley getting back first.

Cholly has got to realize though that Utley is a 4-5x/week player max and he needs to sit at least 1-2x/week. Pretty much like Polanco at this point.

Cholly didn't do that last year with Utley which was just perplexing especially given how much breathing room they had in Aug/Sept. One of my biggest gripes with Cholly always has been his repeated mantra of 'winning today' without as much though on the long-term.

Aguayo: Nix's OPS over the last 3 years is .767. His OPS against RHP over the last 3 years is .792. The former figure is .49 points higher than his career OPS; the latter is .47 points higher than his career OPS against RHP.

Those figures tell us: (a) he's not declining; (b) his career numbers don't tell us much about his present value; and (c) if you're thinking about a platoon, he's a fairly useful player. Yeah, his OBP sucks. Of that, there's no doubt. But, in an off-season in which we re-signed Brian Schneider, added Juan Pierre, and have already flamed out completely with signings like Dontrelle Willis, Brian Sanches, and Joel Pineiro, Nix was hardly our worst acquisition.

I don't think Laynce Nix with his 20 plate appearances is the guy killing the team right now.

Nope, Rg. He's terrible indeed. In the (2) recent years when he gets a half-season's worth of ABs, he manages to be a league average hitter thanks to some pop. But a league-average or so hitter at premium offensive positions isn't very valuable. Plus, those ABs were mostly vs. RHPs -- against lefties he's worse than useless, further limiting his value.

I stand by my condemnation.

But, how do you feel about Luis Aguayo?

Nix ia fine 4th outfielder if used correctly. He shouldn't be starting regularly for a contending team, but he can definitely ply 80-100 games a year, and be a useful player, if he's limited to RHP, or LHP in low-leverage spots.

"He shouldn't be starting regularly for a contending team..."

See also:
Pierre, Juan
Wigginton, Ty
Polanco, Placido
Galvis, Freddy

I don't get the hate for Nix. He's a part-time player, a platoon type. What the heck do you want?
As to his playing CF, he has played a major plurality of his Major League time in CF. Granted, these days, he would only be a stop-gap CF.

One of my biggest gripes with Cholly always has been his repeated mantra of 'winning today' without as much though on the long-term.

I agree. However, there's a decent chance that the Phillies dig themselves enough of a hole early in this season that "winning today" becomes a necessity rather than a luxury. Such a situation bodes ill for both Utley & Howard, & leads me to further question how much of a positive impact their potential return is likely to have.

'Mayix' would be okay if they were used and played primarily in LF/RF.

There is a real dearth right now among corner OF talent in MLB and the offensive numbers especially in LF have dropped like a rock the last few years.

Imagine it is just a hiccup and that there is a current lack of emerging/star talent right now at the corner OF positions especially in LF.

"Laynce Nix is actually really terrible. Somehow Charlie thinks he's a "professional hitter" type, but he's not at all."

When has Charlie said this? Did I miss the quote? He's got Nix buried on the bench.

"'Mayix' would be okay if they were used and played primarily in LF/RF."

I like 'Nixberry' better, or perhaps 'Nixinberry' at first base.

Here's the deal with Howard's injury. It is probably being left to granulate in. This is called healing by secondary intention. They might have to do this because the original wound from surgery became infected. There is only so much tissue you can cut away to make a clean wound and resuture. But there's another problem. Blacks tend to develop keloids more frequently than non-blacks. So, they have to be wary of him developing a keloid in an area that will be constantly rubbing against the back of his shoe. Tough problem.

This is quite a touchy problem. So, they have to be somewhat careful in handling it. The only way to have avoided it was to not get the infection in the first place, but again, when it's an athlete and an area that tends to get dirty and rubbed against a lot, and is toward the distal portion of the extremity, the chances of infection go up.

Really no reason to ever play Nix at 1B. Mayberry, Wiggy and Thome can all field the position, and then Howard when he returns. Nix is an OF, and a good LF at that. Let him hang out there.

A-HOF, look @ Nix's splits, not his overall numbers.

Dave - If they are 9 or 10 games below .500 in early June, you might be right.

This lineup though without Pence (one guy this lineup really couldn't afford to lose) is the worst in MLB. Worse than the Pirates. Ditto the A's. Might not even be a guy who hits 15 HRs if he got enough PT.

Filled with a bunch of slower veterans too who tend to hit their share of grounders and not take BBs/work counts. If you want to rant on the offense, rant on. They suck.

It the worst offensive unit the Phils' put out there on a regular basis arguably since '88 when this team's offense was dreadful for several reasons (aging stars who were long in the tooth in Schmidt and Parrish, bad young players getting a lot of PT in Jeltz and James, and a bunch of mediocre players like Thompson & Bradley who got a bunch of PT)

Yeah, that '88 team could not recover from the trade of Glennbo for Bradley.

Charlie, April 15th : "We need to get some guys in, like [Laynce] Nix, because they’ve got numbers and they’ve got power and they’ve got good swings."

But I agree Charlie hasn't played him much. I am just griping because I am an unhappy person.
Wigginton, Pierre and especially Schnieder stink too.

One of the worst parts about their current performance is the laughable schedule they've encountered so far, yet still are 3 games under .500

With Kratz, OPS-leader Goosewurst and Valle in the system and all performing admirably (Kratz will pull it together), Schneider's signing is the biggest head scratcher in recent memory. Any one of those guys could play backup in a pinch. Valle is the only one who really needs "more seasoning and regular playing time."

But like every other guy we talk about, 'Schneider isn't the cause of our current problems.'

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Halladay-still-effective-despite-switch-?blockID=695708&feedID=693

Great example on how the readily available pitch f/x has completely changed how sports writers cover and fans follow sports.

Generally boils down to Halladay using his 4-seamer notably less, struggling to throw strikes as much, and BBing a few more hitters in the process.

No surprise especially given that Halladay is throwing his 4-seamer so little overall. It is tough to consistently throw a cutter/splitter/sinker close enough to the zone to get some called strikes and get hitters to chase it and not leave them out over the plate & get hit a bit in the process.

aksmith:

I wish you had told me not to look up keloids on wikipedia. Gross.

Wigginton has hit and done exactly what they acquired for him - to give them an offensive upgrade who primarily plays 1B but can play 2B/3B sparingly.

Even Pierre for all of my dislike for his negative attributes and questionable fundamentals, has hit. Pierre's starting in LF so much because Mayberry has started ice cold.

MG: Bill Baer responded to some of those points about Halladay, especially the ones that Rosenthal brought up.

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/04/23/no-reason-to-worry-about-halladay/

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