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Friday, March 30, 2012

Comments

I read where the Phillies are trying to re-acquire Jason Donald and the Tigers are trying to trade us Brandon Inge.

Mike Fontenot is on waivers...perhaps Rube will make a claim given his failure to get Donald back.

"I read where the Phillies are trying to re-acquire Jason Donald and the Tigers are trying to trade us Brandon Inge."

I assume we want Inge so that Utley will have a partner in lawn chair ball. We must be going after Donald because he has, what, more upside than Pete Orr? Phew...

I read where some woman in Oklahoma gave birth to a kid who had bat wings & a nose like an anteater.

*shrugs*

A bit of Flande trivia from JW's thread on the subject, which is sure to fire up the mini-mart lovers:


"Flande, 24, was released along with right-hander Jesus Sanchez to clear room for Rule 5 pick Michael Martinez...

and the other guy the Phillies picked up last week. Flande, who has drawn comparisons to Eude Brito on this space, went 10-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 27 starts for Double-A Reading and pitched in the 2009 Futures Game."


http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2010/12/monday-moves-flande-hooks-on-with-atlanta.html


And more posts from another thread:

"

J.R. King: It probably is a bit harsh to say Flande wasn't a prospect, especially since he was praised to the heavens by posters here last off-season.

Flande put up nice numbers in the FSL in '09, which got people excited, but he was old for the level, has been old for each level and didn't dazzle at Reading last season.

He's got a nice changeup but the rest of his pitches are just average, so his upside is limited. I wouldn't rule out a cup of coffee in The Show someday.

Sanchez is younger, but has even less raw talent than Flande. He didn't even crack BA's list of Top 30 Phillies Prospects.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, December 07, 2010 at 10:08 PM


Clout - Were there really people praising Flande the heavens on BL? Who were those people? I'd sure like to know.

Because he was never more than a touch above filler, the Futures Game notwithstanding.

Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, December 07, 2010 at 10:22 PM


Flande is a non-prospect, worth cutting bait with.

Sanchez is younger and has more potential, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back to the system, assuming no one picks him up (which they won't).

Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, December 07, 2010 at 10:23 PM"

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2010/12/phillies-clear-roster-room-in-preparation-of-rule-5.html

Mike Morse to the DL, 'scouts' may need to drop the Nats expectations to around 130-135 wins now.

BAP: I'm not sure what this means:

"the relative difference between a 34 (Pierre) and 36-year old (Pods) is greater than the relative difference between a 31 (Blanton) and 27-year old (KK)."

Are you saying the age issue is much greater for Pods? If so, then you must think his skills are vastly superior to Pierre to offset the age diff, no?

As I say, I think you're dead wrong on this. A 4-year age difference between pitchers (27 and 31) is far more significant than a 2-year difference (34-36) in position players because pitchers tend to have 1. shorter careers and 2. careers that end at an earlier age.

Thanks for the heads up, lorecore. We'll plan accordingly.

I have to give Meyer credit for this prognostication. He doesn't engage in long posts, but he got this one right:


"
Speaking of Galvis, I hope to see Venezuelans in the mid-infield at LV this summer. Galvis just needs to slap on 20 pounds of pop.

Posted by: Meyer | Wednesday, December 08, 2010 at 09:29 AM"

Livan Henrnandez hooks up with the Bravos. Long man and spot starter.

Good career numbers vs. Phils.

awh, this is part of the reason that the Phils will be battling for second place.

That, and once you get past Lee, Hamels and Halladay, the Phils stink.

awh, I agree, it makes sense intuitively that moving a hitter from a weak lineup to a strong one would make the hitter better (and vice versa), but I don't know of any research. I posted a question at a fangraphs forum to see if anyone there does.

Gaida's brother is a scout for the Twins, that family cannot get enough Rizzoto. He is looking to pry Marscapone away from the Brewers.

The Braves were the trendy pick last year. This year will be a long, tough haul, with lots of moments of doubt, but I think the Phils will still come out on top of the division at the end.

Purely subjective guesswork on my part, but it DID seem as if the Cardinals in particular had a lot of 7-8 pitch at bats, many of which "seemed" (again, subjective recall) to end up with a base hit. I "seem" to remember one of those in the first inning against Halladay in the last game that ultimately led to the run that did the Phils in. Correct me and my apologies if I'm wrong.

Very frustrating if you are on the reciving end. Were the Cardinals really that good at extending ABs and "small ball" or was it more of a fluke, just one of those crazy things you run into in this game?

I know if I were on the Brewers or a Brewer fan when Myers had that endless AB against CC a few years ago, I would have been pulling my hair out. I might have been crying in my beer that night about why we didn't have any pitchers and hitters that couldn't just stand in and foul off a few lousy pitches for crying out loud.

Bottom line. You can't bulletproof against everything. Hope Charlie isn't chasing small ball ghosts.

clout: Perhaps my point is best shown by an example.

Let's assume two otherwise equal pairs of players, and we have to pick one from each set to put on our team for this year and this year only. The first pair consists of a 34-year and a 36-year old. The second pair consists of a 27-year old and a 31-year old. I would probably be more concerned about the age difference in the first pair than in the second. The reason: without having researched the issue, I would think that the average decline between 34 and 36 exceeds the average decline between 27 and the still relatively young age of 31.

In the real world, however, the pairs of players rarely start off with "all else being equal" and we don't have to rely on averages, when we have specifics. In the case of Blanton & KK, we have an oft-injured pitcher who has been ineffective 2 years in a row against a healthy pitcher who is coming off his best season. Those, to me, are the relevant facts. If Blanton's 2011 numbers had looked like his 2007 or 2009 numbers, and KK's 2011 numbers looked like his 2010 numbers, no one would be the least bit concerned that Blanton is 31 and KK is 27.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Is-Pierre-auditioning-for-bigger-role-wi?blockID=679988&feedID=693

This sinister article points up to me a danger posed by Pierre's defeat of Pods for the fifth outfielder spot; Pierre is a veteran player with a recognizable name, the type Cholly loves, PLUS, as J. Weitzel points out, has a reputation for playing the "new" style of Philly ball. If Mayberry and Nix continue to stink in April, I can see Pierre slowly becoming the 2012 Ibanez, starting in LF over Mayberry even opposite same-handed pitching, and also becoming Cholly's regular leadoff man. I can also see Cholly clinging to his Pierre-worship long after Pods' opt-out time has come.

"If Mayberry and Nix continue to stink in April, I can see Pierre slowly becoming the 2012 Ibanez, starting in LF over Mayberry even opposite same-handed pitching, and also becoming Cholly's regular leadoff man."

I believe you left out the words "and being re-signed on a 3-year deal, with a 4th year vesting option, at season's end."

Bob, these are overall 2011 stats, for what it's worth:

Pitches per plate appearance:

Phils 3.80 (8th in NL)
Cards 3.74 (14th)
NL avg 3.80

link: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-pitches-batting.shtml#teams_pitches_batting::4

pitches fouled off as % of strikes seen:

Phils 25% (last)
Cardds 28% (4th)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-pitches-batting.shtml#teams_pitches_batting::4

Other "approach" stats on the Phillies:
- they were slightly better than average at laying off pitches outside the zone (Phillies 30.8%, NL avg 31.0%)
- they took the 2nd most pitches
- they were among the best teams in running hitters counts
- they were 5th in the NL in walks (and 3rd, once Utley returned)
- they had the 4th highest contact rate (i.e. % of time that a swing results in contact)
- they had the 2nd fewest strikeouts

Again, these are overall stats, and there's an argument to be made that their patience backfired against good pitchers, as they got behind in counts and weren't able to recover.

AT, you're not the first poster who has hinted at Pierre not only getting regular playing time (which I wouldn't be shocked to see), but also becoming Manuel's new lead off hitter.

If there's one thing that Manuel treasures over and above his loyalty to veteran players, it's his loyalty to Rollins as a lead off hitter. We've seen stats for years now that show that JRoll would be better off further down in the lineup, but I don't think Charlie has it in him to do it. Quite an amazing phenomenon, actually. Like the Pierre/Pods debate, no matter how much the data says something, the guy trumps all.

Pierre might appear to be a fit for the "new small ball initiative," but he hasn't demonstrated an ability to, you know, actually do that this Spring. I've seen nothing but failed bunt attempts and him being caught stealing.

2005 Juan Pierre would be great for small ball. The 2012 iteration that we're getting seems to actually be the worst possible candidate for small ball, as he doesn't yet realize that he's not that good at it anymore...

schmenkman,

great stats, thanks for the post. Very interested to see how this correlates with the Phils "new approach" to hitting this coming year.

Preacher: FWIW, I have no faith whatsoever that Charlie will buy into the whole "new approach" thing, anyway. He's too old & too stubborn. My prediction is we'll see from Pierre a whole lot of what we've seen from Rollins -- pop-ups & weak ground outs -- only w/out the occasional hot steaks.

schmenkman: Interesting numbers. Do you happen to have a similar breakdown for the Phils & Cards in last season's NLDS? I'd also like to see how, if at all, the Phillies' approach changed w/ runners on base & RISP.

Gtown_Dave, this is the closest I can find (box scores, and then summary stats):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2011_NLDS1.shtml

Let me preface by saying that I don't think Juan Pierre is any great shakes as a player anymore.


If Pierre would become the leadoff hitter and starter in left as some fear that could be okay if he can find some modicum of success of years gone by. That would allow you to slide some guys around in the order and improve the lineup as a whole.

However, I think chances of that happening are very small.

If Nix stinks, then why would you be mad at Charlie for putting in Pierre? Would you rather just have Nix continue to suck?

AT, that article mentioned Jimmy hitting 3rd because Charlie's trying toget more juice in the middle of the lineup.


"With Pierre leading off, Manuel is using Jimmy Rollins in the No. 3 hole as he tries to fortify the middle of the lineup which has been weakened by injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard."


Rollins career OPS

Batting 1st: .275/.333/.448/.781

Batting 3rd: .248/.314/.336/.649, 303 PA


Sure, the sample size isn't that great, but it's enough for me to say I'd rather have
Vic hitting 3rd than Rollins.

Vic batting 2nd: .289/.352/.440/.792

Vic batting 3rd: .303/.351/.424/.776, 37 PA

Vic really rakes in the 5 and 6 hole, but should they put the team's 2nd best hitter in the bottom half of the lineup?

I'll take Vic hitting 3rd instead of JRoll. Why? He's a better hitter. Period.

schmenkman: Thanks.

lorecore: I'm mad at r00b for signing Nix, who WILL stink. And once Charlie shifts to Pierre, so shall my irritation, as Charlie is the A#1 reason Pierre is on the roster in the first place. After all of the latitude given Burrell & Ibañez I'd just as soon let Mayberry sink or swim as the everyday starter in LF, at least for the first half of the season.

And before anyone starts going on about a platoon, ask yourself when the last time was that Charlie set a platoon & stuck w/ it. Exactly. He can't & won't do so. My feeling is that the esteemed manager has already decided he loves Pierre, & that's who we're gonna see on the field most every game.

NEPP~ My guess is RAJ doesn't sign Fontenot. Or sign or trade for anyone else for that matter. He's needed offense the entire off-season and other than the bench hasn't gotten any. What makes anyone think he'll change at this point?

I know I've been harping on it, but I see it as a great hole that wasn't filled. Sorry.

With Jason Peters rupturing his Achille today, at least the Eagle are trying to get a replacement for him. May not happen but at least they're trying.

I've not seen a commitment from RAJ to fix the offense the way I think it needs to be fixed at any point this off-season. Maybe we're spoiled due to what he's accomplished. But from the standpoint of upgrading the offense, he's failed.

I'm not as down on Nix, he can play good defense and (without looking up) is your most likely player to hit a HR vs RHP in the opening day lineup. AB/HR rate isn't the best way to judge a hitter, but in a power-starved lineup the Phils will be trotting out, it's nice to have.


Hey if Juan is starter who cares. Cholly is going to go with "gut". I don't care who hits and lineup. I am more concerned how will cholly actually have to manage this team. Mayberry better perform. He will find him self back on bench, and being the super sub. Book it now. If Juan does what he does. He will be lead off and play left. Now the major question is... If and when chase and ryno get back. How will the lineup play out. Is Juan and mayberry going to platoon? Or will Juan suck they bring Dom up and platoon with him? Lots of variations can be put in place depending on roster. Take a look at minors. AA is going to have best outfield and the baby aces minus one. With Valle at catcher. Big years for James and Gilles.

DPat: yea..i wish rube was joe banner, than everything would be OK

lorecore: Unless & until a r00b team wins it all, he IS Joe Banner.

Oh, good, the mlb.tv feed is using the Yankees broadcast today. 3 hours of Michael Kay is about as much fun as TBag and Wheels.

Bottom line:

If Juan Pierre stinks it up in April & May, we can cut him & call up Podsednik -- but we still can't get back those two month in which Pierre stunk it up and lost us games.

And, if Juan Pierre plays reasonably well in April and May, we will cut Podsednik, thereby leaving us with no alternative when Pierre starts stinking it up in June and continues to stink it up for the rest of the season.

(And please don't ruin the symmetry of this rant by bringing up Dom Brown)

They have to use the Yankees broadcast. The Phillies aren't broadcasting the game on TV.

Juan looking like he's got it. Yes network show MPH so will be good to see.

Lore~ I'm glad RAJ isn't joe Banner, but he's sure been acting like him.

I don't think Thome is going to try to swipe second like JRoll here...

No Michael Kay, but David Cone brings very little to the table.

Still miles better than Wheeler.

Not a real hard hit ball yet, but the Phils managed to grab a run. This could be your 2012 offense in a nutshell.

So, Wes Helms playing in a Wiggington jersey is an April Fool's Day joke, right?

Michael Martinez qualifies for the "Key Injuries" graphic???

Now I KNOW there's some mass April Fool's trolling afoot.

Bueller? Beuller?

(seriously, I'm enjoying myself and all, but where did everyone go?)

I'd like to see Rizzotti at left tackle. Maybe big red can call the twins? He's always been looking for a position..

Not sure if I've posted this before, but if so, it bears repeating - Russell Martin has one of the more punchable looking faces in MLB. I mean like right up there with Cody Ross-level punchable.

Bastardo's fastball didn't look to have much life on it, in inning 1.

Saw 88 MPH readings on two. The last one, I think was a eronius reading, at 96 MPH.

Jeter and Cano both had hard-hit groundouts.

It will be interesting to see how Chuckles uses his folks in LF and at 1B. I think Mayberry is the best fit right now to play 1B, with Thome getting a few starts here and there. I think Pierre will get most of the early season PT in LF, with Mayberry starting from time-to-time against a LHP (which would put Wigginton at 1B on those days).

I think Wigginton will spell Galvis at 2B and will give Polly a day off here-and-there at 3B.

I don't see a place anywhere for Nix. I guess he is destined to be this year's Ross Gload. Strictly a pinch-hitter.

Has Pierre been thrown out on every SB attempt he's made this spring? Talk about losing a step or four, from where he used to be.

RE: both Martin's and Ross' faces, I wholeheartedly agree WP.

when I see Russell Nathan Coltrane Jeanson Martin (really), I see 2 consecutive National League championships for the only time in 130 year history. He doesn't bother me in the least.

Projected lineup for game 1 in Pittsburgh (against LHP Bedard)

Pierre, LF
Vic, CF
Rollins, SS
Pence, RF
Mayberry, 1B
Polanco, 3B
Ruiz, C
Galvis, 2B
Halladay, P


Game 2 (against RHP Karstens):

Pierre, LF
Vic, CF
Rollins, SS
Pence, RF
Thome, 1B
Polanco, 3B
Ruiz, C
Galvis, 2B
Lee, P

Game 3 (versus RHP McDonald):

Pierre, LF
Vic, CF
Rollins, SS
Pence, RF
Wigginton, 2B
Polanco, 3B
Mayberry, 1B
Schneider, C
Worley, P

Pierre leading off and 2-2 for tonight? I fear this cements his position in the arly going to be the everyday LF.

Good thing that leaves Nix as the primary LH PH bat off the bench - a role he is bound to be terrible at.

Just is a motley constructed roster right now.

Preacher: Papelbon's face remains the most punchable of all. It's a damn shame, really.

I am sure if some of BL saw pictures of other posters they would be inclined to do the same.

I was just thinking basically Nix will be our Ross Gload someone beat me to it. The guy maybe able to hit he has shown before he could. Sometimes i wonder of Cholly makes suggestions to RAJ. The thing about Manuel he likes to go on instincts and feel primarily over logic. Sometimes it works but overall its a flawed strategy. Im thinking Nix was probably was a Cholly suggestion.

Chhhoooooooooch!!

Apparently nobody on the Phils' staff tonight is able to have any kind of consistent command.

The staff having a little trouble dialing it in. Must be in a hurry to get one last Friday night at the bar. Glad they knocked around pin. He might just has lost his spot.

Chooch: fun with ST SSS

.500 avg, 1.341 ops
1.452 ops vs RHPs
1.652 ops in away games

With Juan Pierre now on the team, I'm finding that I'm going through an adjustment period as I transition from rooting for him to screw up so he'll be cut to rooting for him to do well so the Phillies can win. For a few players, like Mini-Mart, I never WAS able to make the adjustment. I spent the entire 2012 season hoping that he'd do badly enough that the Phillies would be forced to cut him. Pierre should be a little easier, as I can at least cling to the (admittedly improbable) hope that he might recapture some of his pre-2010 form.

Pierre's Allure by Faberge...only at CVS...Ah, the smell of it!

Did I just hear one of the Yankees announcers (may have been Cone) call Lincecum the odd on favorite for CY Young? Don't get me wrong, Lincecum is a good bet, but to state it as odds on quite a stretch, especially considering that if you're placing an even-money or less (odds-on) bet for any pitcher to win the CY Young you're giving your money away. As crazy as it may sound, I think I'd rather be listening to Tmac.

That being said, the other two said Hamels and Lee (I hope that they're both right).

Out of random curiosity?

How many 'bunt base hits' has Pierre had the last few years? Really can't recall a leadoff hitter who did it with any kind of frequency in the last decade.

Best guy I can recall at doing it the past 20-25 years is probably Brett Butler who was ridiculously good at dropping bunts on either side of the plate or dragging it down the line. Otis Nixon wasn't bad either & had his ridiculous speed.

Dreamer: I always interpreted the phrase "odds-on favorite" as you interpret it: something that is actually more probable than not. However, two online dictionary sites both give alternate definitions which would essentially be synonymous with "favorite." So if Lincecum has 5 to 1 odds of winning Cy Young, and those odds are better than anyone else's, I guess he does qualify as the "odds-on favorite" under the alternate definition -- even though the odds aren't really ON him to win.

(On another topic, there's no way Lincecum is the favorite. He'd probably rate third at best, behind Kershaw & Halladay).

According to Wiki Answers, Brett Butler had 226 career bunt hits in 442 attempts -- a .511 career average. Though they had fewer bunt hits, Kenny Lofton and Rod Carew had higher averages on bunt attempts. Lofton's was .589; Carew's was .795. Of course, these numbers are pretty misleading since a successful sacrifice bunt does not count against the hitter's BA even though it results in an out. Still . . . .795!

Jamie Moyer makes the Colorado rotation and will start the 2nd game of the season.

BAP - Thanks. Forget Lofton & Carew was really before my time. That AVG is ridiculous.

I was always amazed at how Butler could bunt a ball even on the turf at the Vet and just make it die. It was amazing to watch.

This Yanks-Phils game is why the DH is freaking brutal. You have a game that is 10-7 in the 8th and it already nearing the 3:20 mark.

Jamie Moyer makes the Colorado rotation and will start the 2nd game of the season.

Best ex-Phil news of the spring.....Go young Jamie!

I was always amazed at how Butler could bunt a ball even on the turf at the Vet and just make it die. It was amazing to watch.

word. The man was a damn bunt artist.

"Jamie Moyer makes the Colorado rotation and will start the 2nd game of the season. "

That is f'n awesome.

I disagree 100% with everyone who thinks Pierre is our LF, it's Nix job to lose.

Game observations:

-Bastardo's velocity still wasn't there

-Kendrick had his first tough outing of the spring. Was just off with his command. Threw his off-speed stuff a ton. Remember when all he threw were sinkers?

-Do you think the scouting report is to run on Pierre anytime you can, with literally anyone with two working legs?

-Galvis is a good baseball player. Everytime I've seen him play this spring, he's done at least one really impressive thing. He made a play in the 1st base hole tonight, that very few 2B could make. I like the way he's swung the bat as well. He's put the barrel on the ball a lot.

-Wigginton continues to look really bad. I just hope he's the type of guy who can dial it up once it starts for real.

-Mayberry at least had a better AB tonight, even though he got nothing to show for it. Still the same issue though...in front of the off-speed stuff and behind the fastball. He's been "in-between" for a while now. Need to get his confidence back in the next week. Is the AAA hitting instructor that was at Lehigh last year still with us? Those two need to talk things over.

-Pete Orr does not have an arm to play SS

-How many teams have hit fewer HR's in the spring then the Phils? If they hit a ball to the warning track, then its something.

-Is every one of our young pitchers, slow to the plate? Seems like it, doesn't it?

-Cholly went with Bubble Yum tonight.

Based on a rather small sample size, the Phils will be an offensive juggernaut , but need to worry abut their pitching in night games this year.

dennyb: out of the 24 lineup/positions in the 3 lineups you posted, i bet no more than 8 or so are right.

i actually came down to see them with one of my kids. Can't say this is afun team with Thome, Pierre, Wigginton etc.
Funny to see these guys ry to steal a base and be tagged 3 feet from the bag.

SO where was I earlier during the winter begging to trade these oldsters. Well not only are they not traded , they are not playign and we have even more oldsters.

This is not very promising.

RK- put down the bottle.

"-Do you think the scouting report is to run on Pierre anytime you can, with literally anyone with two working legs?"

That also includes anybody in a wheelchair too. I am sending him because if it is deep there is a decent chance Pierre hops it to the cut-off man.

MG: I heard Franzke say Pierre GUNNED DOWN a guy tonite!

Congrats to Young Jamie!

Welcome back, Bloodstripes! I know it's not Winter DownUnder, so you couldn't have been hibernating.

Some of Cholly's quotes tonite:

Thome can play 1B 2-3 times a week.

Jimmy can hit 3rd.

You're going to see a lot of different line-ups.

And for all these years, many of us foolishly believed that there was absolutely nothing that could ever get Cholly to move Rollins out of the leadoff spot. Turns out, all that was needed to get Rollins out of the leadoff spot was for the Phillies to acquire someone with an even lower OBP.

Thome will be on the DL by mid-May, if he plays that much 1B. His bat does look pretty good right now, but his body likely won't hold up.

Who had Hector Luna as the team's leading HR hitter and Freddy Galvis as the team's RBI leader in 2012 spring training?

Anybody?

Lorecore- You are probably right about those lineups. I really don't like the Pierre-Vic-Rollins portion of the order. Much rather see Polly hitting 2nd and Vic hitting 5th or 6th.

Pretty interesting that Pierre could go from literally looking like he had nothing left and a long-shot to make the club no more then 2 weeks ago to being the starter in LF and leading off the season in Pittsburgh. Not sure what that says about our team.

And the Bastardo article was very shaky. I didn't see a whole lot different from a velocity standpoint. Jeter and Cano hit ground-ball rockets, right at fielders. I guess compared to how bad he's looked, it was an improvement. But he still looks a long way from the guy we saw for the first 4 months of 2011.

Papelbon's line looked bad, but I thought his stuff looked very good. You don't see many 3-4 pitch closers (unless you count Lidge's 2 different sliders as 2 pitches). Didn't really need to see him throw over 30 pitches though.

"Some of Cholly's quotes tonite:

Thome can play 1B 2-3 times a week."

Yeah until he ends up on the DL by Memorial Day if Cholly thinks he can play 1B that much.

bap: The problem with batting Jimmy 3rd is that he will think Cholly wants him to be a power hitter, so he will swing for the fences even harder.

Relying on a 41-year old with a bad buck to play regularly at a position he hasn't in several years?

Starting a guy at 2B who has never played the position and has very modest career offensive numbers facing mostly almost exclusively AA or less pitching?

A guy picked up off the scrap heap who is a good beat to be the starter in LF and bat leadoff?

Thank god the starting pitching on this team is so good and they can send out a quality starter every single day to start the season.

goody: As I recall, Cholly batted Rollins 3rd for the first month or so of last season, when Utley was out. He had something like 1 RBI the entire month.

Batting Rollins 3rd is probably one of the few moves that Cholly could possibly make which will cause me to feel nostalgic for the good ol' days when Rollins batted leadoff.

Ideally, JRoll isn't a guy who would hit 1st or 3rd but 6th or even 7th in a really good lineup.

bap: I remember that. Wouldn't it be funny if, around the time Jimmy bats 3rd, he follows the boss's advice to play small-ball, and starts bunting?

MG: Or even the lineup the Phillies will be sporting. If Pierre must bat 1st, Vic should bat 3rd.

Let me say this for the record: I am no fan of Laynce Nix but, if Mayberry's at 1st base, Nix should get virtually every start in LF against RHP. If Juan Pierre has vaulted over him as the presumptive starter, I find that even zanier than the decision to keep Pierre over Podsednik.

awh, to your question about studies of players going from a bad lineup to a good lineup (like Pence last year) and the impact on their stats, I didn't find any existing studies, but somebody at fangraphs did some work on the spot. His reply:
____
"Well, remember that Lance Berkman left those very same Astros a year earlier for a very potent Yankee line-up and effectively wet the bed.

To do this properly, though, you'd need to use park-nuetral splits, which I don't have in my database (yet). Defining a good line-up without park-adjustments will create a bias that will skew the results and render it useless, but a simple query for fun never hurt anybody.

Using Runs/Game to define 'good line-up' and 'bad line-up', I queried all batters since 1993 who switched from a line-up -.25 R/G below lg-avg to a line-up +.25 R/G above lg-avg (these numbers are based off Pence's transition from -.33 HOU to +.27 PHI) with at least 100 PA for each team in the same season.

The query returned 38 players. I compared their OPS from Team 1 to that with Team 2; 21 improved, 17 declined. The most improved was Jim Edmonds 2008 (.439), the most declined was Craig Wilson 2006 (-.206) PIT-NYA.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiJWR6a0B5vndFRjLXBoRXRFR1FCMUxxQUFDdUtQemc "

I've asked him to see if he can include BABIP, since they're small samples, or possibly include seasons before and after to increase the sample in each case.

I remember last season jimmy started as the 3 hitter, and all of a sudden he had like super high bb% and a bunch of singles, but hardly any xbh and therefore had 0 rbi - haha so ppl were flipping out.

Andres Blanco opts out of his deal with the Nats and signs with the Phils:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/minor-moves-andres-blanco.html


"•The Phillies have signed Andres Blanco to a minor league contract, the team announced (on Twitter). The 27-year-old opted out of his minor league deal with the Nationals at some point in the last ten hours or so. Blanco is a .255/.301/.333 career hitter in 654 plate appearances, and has experience all over the infield. The Phillies are trying to add infield depth following Chase Utley's latest knee problems."


As you all know, I do not like to make predictions, but I will predeict this:

This is th ebeginning of the end of mini-mart's MLB career with the Phillies.

The last 3 seasons in MLB, in limited action Blanco has put up a line that mini-mart doesn't have a prayer of achieving:

.258/.307/.345, 405 PA

Also, in TEX the last 2 season, Blanco has played

RF, 2B, 3B, SS, and DH.

In short, Charlie should love him because "he's versatile"!

Schmenkman, thanks for the update. I'll be interested to see what he comes up with.

In ex-Phillie Rule % news, Lendy Castillo has apparently made the Cubs opening day roster.

From this article:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-fan-should-care-20120330,0,2589309.story


We get this:

"The Dodgers’ currently pay Fox approximately $38 million per year to broadcast their games. Some now estimate their next contract could approach $4 billion for 15 years – that’s an average of $267 million per season."

The Phillies will have plenty of money to spend when their new TV deal gets done, and could backload a Hamels contract. The only issue will be the ux-tax.

My favorite Andres Blanco stat:

Career stolen bases: 1
Career caught stealings: 9

Nontheless, his numbers are worlds better than Mini-Mart's and Hale says he's a "slick" defensive player. He's probaly just AAA infield depth, but he appears to be better AAA infield depth than Mini-Mart.

I've been reading Beerleaguer for years and "more banjo hitters with guile" may be my favorite -ism ever. Nice work JW

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EST. 2005

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