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Friday, March 30, 2012

Comments

JW: "Here's the bottom line though: Pick Pierre. Pick Podsednik. At the end of the day, it's a marginal difference."

Agreed, thats why I can't kill the Phillies for taking Pierre with the option of owning both players until June, instead of just 1.

They are almost the same player AND neither 1 will(hopefully) have enough playing time to even bare that marginal difference out.

That said...I woulda taken Pods.

can we flip Podsednik for a backup infielder?

"they'd swear they're observing the Pirates."

Until they look out at the mound. Then they'll just swear.

By May, this site is going to be longing for the days when Raul Ibanez delivered 20 home runs for the Phils last season.

I remember the same anonymous scouts predicting first place for the Braves last season.

"...but keeping two lefty hitting outfielders with largely identical skill sets would be unorthodox to say the least."


Unless, of course, the goal is to go North with the best 25 players.

If Podsednik is better than a potential backup IF - especially in a PH role - then it's unorthodox, but makes sense.

"Here's the bottom line though: Pick Pierre. Pick Podsednik. At the end of the day, it's a marginal difference."


This is a modified version of something I posted on the previous thread:

His last 2 seasons in MLB, Pods had 65 XBH in 1182 PA, or one every 18 PA.

The last 2 seasons Pierre had 45 XBH in 1445 PA, or one ever 32 PA.

So, if we assume the guy occupying that spot on the roster is going to get 250 PA in 2012, that means Pods 'should' get 6 more XBH than Pierre.

Also, his last 2 MLB season Pods hit 1 HR every 90 PA. The last 2 seasons Pierre hit 1 HR every 481 PA.

Again, that means Pods is FIVE TIMES as likely to hit a dinger as Pierre, and in a 250 PA season will hit 2 - 3 HR whereas Pierre probably won't hit any.

How much difference would that make to the team over the course of the season?

Is it the difference in 1 win? Also, would Pods potentially throwing out 1 more runner be the difference in a win?

Yes, it's a marginal difference between the two, but in baseball don't some of the wins occur on the margin?

It's too many left-handed hitters if you take Podsednik. It just is. There's no way Charlie Manuel wants to look down at his bench and see Thome, Podsednik, Pierre, Schneider, Nix as his options.

2nd? Ah those anonymous scouts.

JW, both Pierre and Pods have undramatic L/R splits, so I don't view keeping both of them as as much of a detriment as do you.

Bullpen is where the Phils are going to have some early interesting openings potentially:

Bastardo still hasn't regained velocity and even Dubee admitted on Wed. admitted that his forearm stiffness was due to something other than 'dehydration.' He's a real question mark to start the season with the Phils.

Stutes has that sore right shoulder. He's said he expects to pitch in a game before the Phils leave Florida on Sunday. Still not scheduled though.

Phils said they are fairly confident that Contreras will be ready for Opening Day, but they want the option of backdating a potential stint on the disabled list to March 26. As a result, he is scheduled to pitch Saturday and next Tuesday in minor league games.

I imagine at this point Contreras opens the season on the roster. Stutes is 50/50 and Bastardo I bet is headed to the DL.

Bullpen of:

Papelbon
Contreras
Qualls
Herndon
Savery (I think he is a lock with all of the question marks)
KK

Leaves one mystery spot. If Bastardo begins the year on the DL, I wouldn't shock me if Valdes starts the year with the Phils.

Savery? I guess they may have one 1st round draft pick pan out, no?

Sanches has to be kicking himself because with a really good spring there is a decent chance he could have made this roster.

JW - The real question is whether we'll miss the 4 HRs he hit after July last year.

Wasn't Bastardo's average velocity around 93-94 last year? A drop in velocity is never a good thing especially coupled with his lack of control prior to last season.

It's the chic thing to do to pick the Nationals or Marlins. I still take the Phillies with their rotation over any team in the NL. People are still fixated with Utley and Howard. The offense revolved around Victorino and Pence last year, as it will this year.

Now get back to work.

Anyone else hear that Matt Rizzotti was traded to the Twins?

Phils won't either of their corner OFs last year from Opening Day (Ibanez/Francisco).

This what Ibanez gave them last year as a starter in LF:

132 GS - .243/.288/.411 (.699 OPS) with 19 ABs in 523 ABs.

Combined that with his lack of speed and horrible defense, the Phils won't miss Ibanez especially the months last year when he was 'Raold' and an OPS that was sub. 600 (April/June/August).

Reduced expectations can be a good thing. Might even be a motivator.

for Mauer and/or Morneau?

"it's a marginal difference between the two, but in baseball don't some of the wins occur on the margin?"

Considering that a certain segment of Beerleaguer (i.e., Iceman, CJ, Phlipper) justify literally every bad move the Phillies make on the ground that it's too insignificant to make a difference, it's worth wondering about the sum total of wins that the "marginal differences" between the following players adds up to:

Wilson Valdez and Freddie Galvis
Erik Kratz and Brian Schneider
Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre
Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton
Hector Luna and Pete Orr

bap, good post, good question.

bap, supposed each "marginal difference" equals .5 wins.

As a group that's 2 - 3 wins on the season.

Is that enough to decide the division or the postseason?

my honest opinion:

Wilson Valdez and Freddie Galvis: 0
Erik Kratz and Brian Schneider: 1 win per 450 innings
Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre: 1 win per 900 innings
Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton: both on team?
Hector Luna and Pete Orr: no idea either way

i would have kept pods! pierre is done! his defense is lacking, if pods is a wash offensively (which i disagree) his defense is much better! isn't that what we need? without a lot of power in the line up pitching and defense should rule the day. so why not take the better player in pods and not worry about the depth issue. from what i've seen of montanez he's our depth! good outfeilder can run a little and is a rh bat for the bench. sometimes i just don't get charlies thinking.

Also, with regard to the "big debate among scouts", WGAS.

The modus operandi for this team in the early going is to stay in the hunt - within striking distance.

Howard will be back, and if he's to be believed, so will Utley.

How much of an upgrade Howard will be over the RFD/Nixington/Thome platoon remains to be seen, because we don't know how effective he'll be.

Utley, OTOH, even if he's not 100%, will probably be a significant upgrade to Galvis.

If they're in the hunt when those guys get back...

Scouts say second?

I could see that in the following circumstances:

1) Ryan Howard doesn't return until June, and is a shell of himself. We get a (AVG/OBP/SLG) .250/.330/.430 performance from our 1B for the year.
2) Chase Utley doesn't take the field until May, and reproduces his 2011 stat line
3) One of the big 3 (Hamels, Halladay, Lee) is hurt and misses a significant chunk of time.
4) Victorino regresses to his career norm OPS of .783 (last year he was .847), as does Pence (.954 OPS with Phillies, career .828).
5) The Nationals or Marlins are much better than expected.

They're not hitting in Spring Training, that's what brought that prediction on. This is, at best, an average offensive team for the National League, compared to 2006-2011, when it was a well above average offense (with everyone healthy).

Mind you, the Giants won the 2010 World Series with an average offense and great pitching. That's what's driving the Phillies bus.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/3/29/2911907/2012-phillies-player-preview-freddy-galvis-defensive-wizard

Makes an argument that if Galvis hits near the league average for second basemen, that his glove could make him an overall above average player, (+2 fWAR). If that's the case, than he's a huge upgrade over both Mini-Mart and Valdez. The article also points out that he could just as easily be replacement level.

BAP- first of all, you are knowingly making a false argument. I have made the "it's too insignificant to matter" argument twice- once regarding Mini Mart's inclusion on the roster last year, and now regarding Pierre and Podsednik. I was correct last year, as the team won 103 games with Mini Mart so severely weighing them down the entire season.

If this was a matter of a starting spot, it would be a bigger deal. But I don't think either of them would play enough to make the difference between the two players significant, and furthermore, I think Pierre is going to play his way off the team in the first few months of the season.

I can say that the Phillies pitching staff is head and shoulders above anyone else in the NL East. Can anyone say that one of the other lineups is significantly better than the Phillies? Do the Nats with Bernadina, Desmond, LaRoche, & Espinosa in the lineup really score significantly more runs than the Phils? How about the Marlins with Buck, Infante, Sanchez, and Bonifacio? Everything would have to break right for those teams. Everyone coming off a bad season would have to bounce back (Werth & Hanram) and everyone coming off a career year (Bonifacio) needs to sustain his success. I think the NL East will be tighter this year, but the Phils still come away with the crown.

"2) Chase Utley doesn't take the field until May, and reproduces his 2011 stat line"

I'd be happy with this -- 3.9 win players are hard to find.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0

Assuming that Galvis is going to be a defensive wizard at a position he has never played before is a stretch.

The offense though is a big concern. There is no way Galvis hits anywhere near the average production of a 2B last year - .255/.320/.399 (.719 OPS).

Even the ZIPS projection for him is an incredible stretch - .261/.299/.359 (.658 OP
S).

Galvis is going to be facing MLB pitching and of a sudden his OPS is going to magically increase over 40 pts from his career minor league total facing almost exclusively pitching at AA or less?

If I could bet that under on that OPS, I would go right now and drop $10k on it.

If he is OPS is .600 or even slightly above it, they can live with him in the lineup.

If it is closer to the .550 mark (where I think it will be), he's going to be brutal in the 8-hole everyday.

Rizzotti to the Twins for...cash? I know he's not a big prospect b/c of age and all, but couldn't the Phils at least have gotten a player for him? Even one to be named later?
Maybe this cash will be used to sign/acquire an INF backup?

lore: On Valdez & Galvis, we just don't know. On Luna and Orr, I would guess around 1 win per 450 or 500 innings in favor of Luna. But I fully expect the Phillies to take Orr because they invariably go with the guy they know -- even if what they know is that he's absolutely awful.

On Blanton & KK, yeah, they're both on the team, but Blanton is going to be in the starting rotation even though KK was better last year & will very likely be better going forward. The difference is slightly offset by the conventionally held wisdom (which may or may not be true) that KK is also better out of the pen. But even if that's true, it's still a net loss (potentially a pretty significant one) to pick the worse of the 2 pitchers for your starting rotation.

On Beerleaguer, everyone has become accustomed to winning 97 games and winning the division by 6+ games. Hence, when it comes to the less important players on the roster, some posters will defend literally every move on the ground that it won't make a difference to the season's outcome. But the Phillies seem to be making an increasing number of roster decisions which are either flat-out bizarre (i.e., Mini-Mart, Schneider, Pierre) or which are heavily influenced by non-baseball factors, like salary (i.e., Blanton in the starting rotation over KK). All of these seemingly minor decisions eventually add up when you keep making the wrong decision.

Prediction: Rizzotti gets called up when Morneau gets another concussion in May, hits .350/.687/1.123 with 57 HRs/175 RBIs in 500 PA.

Assuming he struggles a bit like most callups at the beginning. If he hits the ground running, I expect Ted Williams to be forgotten as "the last .400 hitter".

Iceman: This is an exact quote from you, following the Valdez trade -- which is easily the least justifiable trade since the Abreu trade, if not longer:

"Look at the slash line above and honestly ask yourself if the Phils are going to miss that this year."

So, now that's 3 times you've made the "too insignificant to matter" argument. And I'm quite sure I would find many others if I bothered to search the archive, which I don't feel like doing.

NEPP: then I hope it was a whole lotta cash we got for him.

Big three will be pitching with more pressure knowing they won't be getting much run support.

BAP- where in that quote do I say anything about significance? I pointed out that Valdez was simply not a very good player and his production wouldn't be missed because it shouldn't be hard to replace. Stop being dishonest.

I don't feel like going through archives either, but I believe I also argued that if Valdez wasn't replaced by someone other than Mini Mart, then it was a dumb move. Which it was. Again, stop being dishonest.

***Big three will be pitching with more pressure knowing they won't be getting much run support.***

I sure hope they're up to it...I mean, it'll be tough considering two of them are Cy Young winners and the other is a WS MVP.

Schneider resigning wasn't bizarre in the fact that he came about as cheap as an experienced backup veteran catcher will come ($800k).

Normally I wouldn't care but Schneider just looks finished and not able to contribute at a MLB-caliber anymore defensively/offensively.

bap: yeah, those are all good questions, and i'm excited that 1 has a real chance to actually have an answer: Gavlis/Valdez.

With Luna/Orr, Kratz/Schneider, we'll only be able to guess who would be better by how much. We can argue which is more likely, but as a beerleaguer, I am pumped about the chance to yell 'i told you so' that gavlis and valdez will have almost identical value in 2012 with actual proof...unlike the more eager "i told you so'ers" you will declare it right now without anything happening.

Rube is following the Omar Minaya school of GMing where he gets big money guys and ignores complimentary pieces.

Its a very dangerous road to go down. It doesnt matter at all if you trade for Johan Santana if your bench and bullpen are terrible.

"Big three will be pitching with more pressure knowing they won't be getting much run support."

Said that a long time ago. But we are gonna lose more 3-2 games than we'll win 2-1.

Is Rizzotti to the Twins true? If so, can't be for anything of value. Gotta be cash.

BAP~ Blanton's making 8 million. He'll start over KK for that reason.

Iceman: There's nothing dishonest about pointing out that you, CJ, and Phlipper INVARIABLY defend almost every move the Phillies make, no matter how nonsensical. In fact, you and Phlipper (not so much CJ), actually take it one step further by not only defending the move, but using it as a launching pad to lecture all those who criticize it.

Nonetheless, my overall point has nothing to do with you or any other poster. It's simply that: if a team makes a wrong roster decision, there's a cost -- even if it pertains to only the least significant roster spot on the team. If a team makes 4 or 5 wrong roster decisions, those costs start to add up -- even if they pertain to the 4 or 5 least significant roster spots on the team.

"Blanton's making 8 million. He'll start over KK for that reason."

Yep. He's the 5th starter for reasons having absolutely nothing to do with performance on the field. And there's a cost (or at least potential cost) to that decision. Hopefully, we'll get the "good" Joe Blanton of 2009 -- in which case the cost will be pretty minimal to non-existent, as I wouldn't expect KK to be any better than that. But if we get something closer to 2010 Blanton, then the cost of choosing him over KK will be pretty significant.

BAP- sorry, it is dishonest when you take a quote of mine completely out of context and use it to illustrate a point that you are knowingly exaggerating in the first place. Insert generic quote about typical lawyer tricks here.

And as to your second point, lorecore has it right that you and others have simply decided that certain roster decisions are wrong (Luna/Orr, Kratz/Schneider, Kendrick/Blanton) without a single game being played, and anyone who disagrees is a front office apologist. That is just incredibly stupid. And you don't like that phlipper, CJ and myself point out the incredibly stupid things you say. I normally apologize for that because I know it hurts your feelings, but especially this spring, the stuff you're saying is becoming increasingly nonsensical.

"He was chosen as the best fit for Charlie Manuel's new - and very scary - small-ball initiative."

I agree with what JW is implying here: I'm more worried about a shift to small-ball than I am the actual choice of Pierre over Podsednik. I think one of Manuel's strengths as a manager is that he (rightly) realizes that giving away outs is stupid, and I fear he has changed his mind.

The long list of posters who demanded more
"run-manufacturing" after the NLDS may unfortunately get their wish.

bap, here are Blanton and Kendrick's combined 2010-11 stats:

Blanton: 217 IP, 4.85 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 3.74 xFIP
Kendrick: 295 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 4.54 xFIP

Blanton: 7.01 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, .328 BABIP
Kendrick: 4.36 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, .275 BABIP

Kendrick does seem to be improving, and he's had a great Spring. We also now have to worry about Blanton's health.

But I for one am not ready to say Kendrick is the better pitcher yet.

Blanton is the better pitcher. Question is how well does his elbow hold up.

"it is dishonest when you take a quote of mine completely out of context and use it to illustrate a point that you are knowingly exaggerating in the first place."

Kind of like when I say that Blanton & KK are "roughly equal" (or some such words), in the context of advocating that we trade away Blanton because KK is just as up to the task -- only to have you turn around & ridicule me for arguing that Blanton was KK's equal? You are literally the last person on Beerleaguer (or at least tied for last with clout) who should be crying about your statements being taken out of context.

DH Phils: you'd prefer Freddy Galvis & Pierre/Pods swing for the fences?

The offense looks bad and the bullpen, other than closer, looks to be below average. The bench is sub par with the exception of Thome. The defense depends on who is healthy and playing that day, but is likely no more than average overall. Three starters are solid and two are question marks for various reasons.

Unlike some recent Phillies teams, this one looks like it will depend on the other teams sucking a lot more than in recent years.

Anything controversial there?

I think with guys like DeFratus and Aumont in Lehigh, the bullpen should be the least of Rube's concerns this year. Odds are one or both will be called up at some point and I could see Aumont pulling a Bastardo-type year out of his backside.

aksmith, I think that describes April and most of May pretty well (although calling 3 of the best pitchers in baseball "solid" is underselling a bit).

Hopefully the picture improves once Howard and Utley return, and hopefully at least one of them by May.

bap: "Hopefully, we'll get the "good" Joe Blanton of 2009"

Blanton has had plenty of decent years, don't act like 2009 was some magical year. I'm not happy he's making $8.5M and coming off an awful year/injury - but he's not some lost cause that can't hold Kendrick's jock as you are making it out to me.

schmenkman: (And then I'm getting to work)

KK v. Blanton is kinda like Pierre & Podsednik, in that there are arguments to be made on both sides. Pierre played last year; Pods didn't. But Pods was better when he did last play. On Blanton-KK, Blanton has the better stuff (at least he used to) and has historically been the better of the two. But KK was better last year and has been much healthier over the last 2 years.

In the best case scenario, Blanton pitches like he did in 2009 & is maybe slightly better than KK would be. However, KK has slightly more upside because he's younger & coming off a good year. And he has considerably less downside, since Blanton has been pretty terrible for much of the last 2 seasons.

JBird: Between the extremes of "swinging for the fences" and willingly handing over some of your scarce outs, there is the middle ground of normal at-bats, which only result in outs 70-75% of the time for Galvis, and maybe 65% of the time for Pierre. I suspect that these normal at-bats are usually more productive than bunting, but I fear that Manuel has changed his mind on this.

https://twitter.com/#!/magelb/status/185354313030320128

Hu won't be an IronPig? You won't Chin-Lung.

Not that it matters.

JW: "By May, this site is going to be longing for the days when Raul Ibanez delivered 20 home runs for the Phils last season."

If Laynce Nix gets as many ABs as Ibanez did last year, he'll hit more HRs and have a better OPS than Ibanez.

But Ibanez 2011 is a very low bar. I'd like to see one of the youngsters - Mayberry or Brown - step up and seize the opportunity.

clout: Barring major injuries in the OF, there's no way Nix gets 535 ABs this year. He is strictly a platoon player, who can't hit LHP at all. But I do think the Nix/Mayberry/Wigginton platoon -- if that's what we end up with in LF -- will hit more homeruns and post a higher OPS than Ibanez had in 2011. I also think, as I've said before, that Nix's abject awfulness against LHP might actually be a blessing in disguise since, unlike Ibanez, Cholly can be under no illusions that Nix should ever start against a LHP.

"Said that a long time ago. But we are gonna lose more 3-2 games than we'll win 2-1."


Dom, you're at it again, and with a short memory.

schmenkman posted this in response to AT, in the thread about the Valdez trade:


"AT - "...otherwise the remaining aces are going to be losing [even] more 2-1 or 3-2 games than they did last year."
---
In low-scoring games (winning team scores 3 or less), the Phillies were 30-15.

I know 30-3 or 30-5 would be better, but come on, 30-15 is pretty good."


Dom, that's .667 baseball - 108 win equivalent - when the winning team scored 3 runs or less.

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2012/01/phillies-shake-up-bench-by-dealing-valdez-to-reds.html

AWH~ Yeah, but the offense is terrible, or appears that way.

On another note, I just saw that the Rizzotti trade is true. Was he on the 40-man? I think we're @ 38 there. More moves coming, do you think. I'm outta here for now. Please answer and I'll check back later.

I think the Phillies will put up a little better than league average numbers offensively. The NL league average last year was 668 runs scored, the Phillies had 713 (and were 7th). If the average is, say, 650, I'd expect the Phillies to put up around 670. Again, slightly above average offense, but not #1-3, which it was from 2006-2010.

This prediction is based on several things:
1) Pence will regress from his .954OPS, but to a .900 OPS, still an excellent hitter, and Victorino/Ruiz will also hit well, closer to career norms but not significantly off from 2011
2) Wigginton, Nix, Thome, and Mayberry form effective platoons in LF and 1B. Lineup will be strongest with Thome present, but I doubt he'll start at 1B for more than 2 out of 5 games, on average, before Howard returns. Certainly the LF platoon puts up better numbers than Ibanez 2011. The equivalent of Ibanez 2010 would be excellent (OPS 793, OPS+ 111).
3) Much better bench bats this year. Numbers won't be lights out, but certainly better than the .603OPS of Gload, the supposed "power" bat off the bench. Excluding Mayberry, Francisco was the best actual bench bat with an OPS of 704.
4) But until Utley and Howard return, this is an average offense at best. In fact, I'd expect sub par runs scored until Mid May.

"The offense looks bad and the bullpen, other than closer, looks to be below average. The bench is sub par with the exception of Thome."


smitty, here are the 2011 NL bullpen stats:

3.59 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 8.1 K/9, .795 HR/9

.241/.320/.367, .293 BAbip

7697 IP (vs. 15,547 IP for SP) which is approximately 33.1% of all the IP in the NL last season. Phillies percentage last season: 27.9% of IP were by the bullpen, with a 3.45 ERA.

If the bullpen as a whole is just average this season, their pitching will probably be fine.

As for the bench, being "below average" with the exception of Thome, I disagree. Have you seen what constitutes some of the benches in MLB?

Godfather, Pence overall was at .871 OPS last year, so .900 would still be an improvement. I would love to see high .800s, but I'm afraid it might be more like mid-800s. The highest of the projections published on fangraphs is .835 (excluding the fans' .858).

The anonomous scouts who loved the rockies last year, braves, angels, etc... Yes, we saw it last year with the Braves in the NL East. This year its the Nats and Marlins. Nats are barely a .500 team, still, and the Marlins are loaded with 'me' guys, reminiscent of those Mets teams loaded with all the latin talent by Minaya. How did that work out? Great ballplayers for sure, limited conceptual understanding of the team concept, which oftentimes turns into a mess come august. Phils dont runaway with the division like in years past but they win it.

Pierre in the leadoff spot and starting in LF tonight vs Yanks. Ugh.

I really hope Pierre doesn't suddenly become the starting LF and leadoff guy.

schmenkman, one wonders if Pence's performance last season was affected by being in a better lineup in Philly, with more guys on base ahead of him (pitching pithing from the stretch)?

Also, his avg. OPS the last 3 years was .825, and was only .828 in Houston last season.

Is there any data on whether surrounding lineups can affect a hitter's performance?

If Pierre and Posednik had identical deals, the latter would have gotten more consideration. I fully expect there to be a brutal stretch in April or May where the bats are put to sleep for two weeks straight. Still, there has been a league-wide shift to a low-scoring environment and, if there's one team built to thrive in it, it's the Phillies. Hard to lose too many games when 1/8 of all games played in 2010-11 resulted in 0 runs by the opposition.

Why would the Phillies sign a guy they want to be a high OBP 5th outfielder and then cut him after getting a .377 OBP in Spring Training?

Rizzotti was not on the 40-man. Looks like Yohan Flande will make the Braves 25-man. We released him when he was at Reading.

Flande? I remember him...he had like zero stuff and threw all sorts of junkballs IIRC.

Flande? I remember him ... he had like zero stuff and threw all sorts of junkballs IIRC.

So he's ready-made to absolutely slaughter a Charlie Manuel lineup, then. Wunderbar.

Bullpen for the first half is going to depend on how Contreras/Bastardo do.

Funny, I did dislike the Qualls signing and there were a few other relievers I wanted the Phils to gamble on instead.

Very good chance though that Qualls is going to be a guy who sees a ton of high leverage spots including as a setup man from the get go.

Bastardo is pitching tonight. Too bad the game isn't televised.

Looks like another Phillie will make a 25-man roster. Matt Maloney will be starting for the Twins.

"Why would the Phillies sign a guy they want to be a high OBP 5th outfielder and then cut him after getting a .377 OBP in Spring Training?"

Maybe because that high OBP 5th outfielder had an OBP right around league average last year. Or maybe because they signed 2 guys to be that potential high OBP 5th outfielder and the other guy had a .407 OBP in Spring Training.

I guess the ballet class didn't help Rizzotti.

"Is there any data on whether surrounding lineups can affect a hitter's performance?

Posted by: awh"
--
A quick search on "lineup protection studies" seems to indicate that protection is a myth, although that's a bit more limited question than what you're asking.

BAP: There's only 2 years difference between Pods and Pierre. There is a 4-year difference between KK and Blanton (and pitchers on average end their careers younger than position players). So I'd say that -- yet again -- you're wrong in your equivalency.

Although you do get credit for acknowledging that you think Kendrick is a major league pitcher, a view held by a tiny minority here.

"Maybe because that high OBP 5th outfielder had an OBP right around league average last year. Or maybe because they signed 2 guys to be that potential high OBP 5th outfielder and the other guy had a .407 OBP in Spring Training."

Why cut the .377 OBP guy when you can keep both the .377 OBP guy and the .407 OBP guy?

MLB network

shakes, please don't call them .377 OBP and .407 OBP guys. They happened to do that in a small sample in Spring Training, against a mix of major leaguers working on their stuff and minor leaguers trying to make an impression. But most importantly, in a small sample.

I hope this Cash Considerations guy can play a good second base and hit some.

Rizzotti is a good pickup by the Twins. He's a true DH and they can throw him against MLB pitching and see if his bat is for real. It won't take long to find out.

NEPP: You have a short memory re: Flande. He was very much beloved and touted by posters here. I wouldn't be surprised if you were one of them.

1 single random poster: Flande is having a good year in the minors, i hope he continues to pitch well and help the MLB team one day

clout 3 years later: Beerleaguer has been touting Flande as the next Cy Young for years now, everyone who posts on this blog is stupid but me.

***NEPP: You have a short memory re: Flande. He was very much beloved and touted by posters here. I wouldn't be surprised if you were one of them.***

No, I was never impressed by Flande...always thought he was a smoke/mirrors guy that we often see have great success in the minors only to suck royally in the majors. I distinctly recall my brother saying to me that he was going to a game in Reading just to see Flande pitch and I said "Why, he's not a prospect at all."

lorecore: You need to go back and check. You were posting under your prior names then, but you'll find them.

clout, with Rizzotti gone, it will be interesting to see who is anointed the next "savior" toiling away in the minors (after Dom Brown, of course).

Ironically, the Rizzotti stigma is that he's DH material because he's all bat, no glove, and blocked at 1B. Precisely the situation we're looking at with Jim Thome (though age/point in career is obviously a different factor).

I hope this Cash Considerations guy can play a good second base and hit some.

You might want to temper your enthusiasm a bit.

Is Julio Rodriguez starting vs the Yanks tonight or just scheduled to appear at some point? Would be nice to see how he fares, as he's mainly been a 'sleeper' prospect because he lacks any ++ pitches, but continues to put up impressive numbers:

16-7, 2.76 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 in 156IP as a 20yr old in A+ - if he had better "stuff" he'd be a top 100 after that year.

clout: I happen to think Podsednik is better than Pierre & KK is better than Blanton, so I'm not sure where we differ.

Putting aside the specifics of these players, however, I tend to think that, on average, the relative difference between a 34 (Pierre) and 36-year old (Pods) is greater than the relative difference between a 31 (Blanton) and 27-year old (KK). It's really not Blanton's age that is a mark against him. It's his recent performance and injury issues.

STRAWMAN ALERT! STRAWMAN ALERT!

A "tiny minority" here think KK is a big league pitcher?

Clout is in da hisouse!

Bastardo is pitching tonight. Too bad the game isn't televised.

Posted by: MG | Friday, March 30, 2012 at 02:01 PM

he's starting a bullpen game. and it's on mlb network

schmenkman, I wasn't specifically referring to "lineup portection".

Rather, if a good hitter like Pence moves from the HOU lineup - which stunk last season - into a lineup like the Phillies

1) where they couldn't pitch around him as much [yes, "protection"], but also where
2)there are better hitters who are on base more causing distraction, and
3)pitchers to pitch from the stretch more, and
4)possibly increasing the number of fastballs a guy might see,

would the combination of those factors allow him to perform better.

Simply, can a good hitter perform better on a better team?

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