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Thursday, March 08, 2012

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JW: You mean 50 plus pitches right?

I hope Willis doesn't read "50-plus innings." His arm might fall the hell off.

Get used to this phrase, "(Pitcher X) would have completed the inning if not for a Ty Wigginton error."

I'm more worried about "Ryan Howard would have completed the game if not for his nagging ankle injury"

The PC term for Wigginton's ability at any infield position besides 1B is 'defensively challenged.'

Why I thought it was really odd at the start of camp when I caught Amaro's interview and how he thought Wigginton was a strong glove and his best position was 2B in the infield.

That'a boy Hamels.

Polanco has looked pretty good so far this ST.

Victorino with a blast.

TMac is trying WAYYYYYY too hard to incorporate "triple-double" and "quadruple-double" into baseball stats vernacular, just in case you were wondering why I hate him as an announcer...

i havent been able to watch, has Polly's hits been flares towards RF that drop in?

It's a lot of work to squeeze 50 innings into 2 2/3. Damn you, Ty Wiggington.

Honestly as long as the Phils can count on ~90 counts from Halladay/Lee/Hamels, this club is making the playoffs.

Phils were 22-11 in Hallday's starts in 2010. 24-8 last year. That's 63-19 (.768) the past 2 years.

Phils were 22-10 in Lee's starts last year. I was a bit surprised with Hamels. Phils were only 18-13 last year. 18-15 in '10 and 16-16 in '09. Victim of both lack of run support and a somewhat down year in '09.

So basically with the Big 3 last year the Phils were a combined 64-31 (.673).

Even if the offense does struggle a bit (my bet is that they fall somewhere between 6-8 this year in RS in the NL), it is hard to believe the Phils wouldn't be able to win at least at a .600 clip so with them on the mound. Probably closer to .650. That's basically ~60 wins right there. Just need to find a way to scrap together another 30 wins.

Only way I will really get concerned about this season and the Phils not making the playoffs is if Hamels/Lee/Halladay is going to be out for a significant stretch. If they are, that's a cause for real concern. Phils can even weather Howard being out until June/July.

When Freddie Galvis makes the MLB Hall of Fame as a 2nd baseman, we can all say that we witnessed his first-ever game at the position.

Rod Barajas doubles.
Even in spring training this old dude hits the Phils,

Contreras sighting?

I know they said he threw off the mound on Monday and felt alright. I was just wondering if anyone heard when he might actually pitch in a game. One guy I actually really do want to see pitch on TV if possible.

I damn near fell out of my chair bay_area_phan

I think a new BL meme is developing. Here's my contribution:

"Chase Utley would have completed the game if not for his chronic, irreversible knee injury."

Tuffy guns another.

MG: "One guy I actually really do want to see pitch on TV if possible"

Because he's filthy, thats why.

Contreras being ready by Opening Day is "in doubt", according to Gelb.

Oooh, lemme try-

"Dom Brown would have completed the game if not for his inability to stop fly balls from hitting him in the face."

As for TMac, he actually has been trying to call the specific pitch more I have noticed this spring especially on offspeed stuff.

Wish he would just drink a scotch/whiskey before the broadcast, calm down a bit, and just be himself a bit more. He really tries to power through a broadcast at times especially today with endless verbiage.

Fata: Excellent!

MG- Maybe we could get Bob Ueker to mentor T-Mac.

But, I guess If Harry didn't get through to him Uke wouldn't either.

MG: IF you listen to the great announcers over the years you'll see that on TV they often are silent for 10 or 15 seconds at time when there's something interesting in view.

The very worst announcers don't know you should let the pictures do the talking. They try to fill as much airtime as possible by yakking, often adding absolutely nothing in the way of insight.

"Brian Schneider would have completed the game, if not for his inability to catch for more than 7 innings, making his role as a backup catcher completely irrelevant".

clout - It is such a dramatic and stark a difference when you listen to the old broadcasts that get replayed on Comcast from time-to-time from say an old Phils' game on PRISM or on old baseball game on from the 70s/80s ESPN Classic.

It literally is like you are listening to announcers do play-by-play for 2 different sports.

Nice being able to hear the fans actually chant and the noise of the ballpark.

The worst thing that bad announcers do is to come into the game with a scripted storyline and then try to force the game action into their script.
Morgan, Buck and a lot of national teams use this approach.
Sit back, relax and just call the %^%^ game!

Wigginton contributed the game's first run on a two-run double

The Phils are going to struggle to score runs, if they only get 1 run for every two-run double!

Blanton would have completed the game had the spaghetti sauce on his pitching hand not been ruled illegal.

So, who's up for the analysis as to whether or not Wiggy can add as much offensively as his glove will take away defensively at 2B?

Williard Preacher - The real question is how much better would Wiggy be offensively at 2nd than Mini-Mart? That should assuage whatever fears you have about his defensive challenges there.

Things I learned today:

- Dave Bush is one step closer to his inevitable path to the Independent Leagues with my bet on an out right release out coming next week by the Phils.

Imagine some team will pick him up and let him pitch at their AAA club this year given his MLB resume.

- Purcey didn't look bad but made a mistake pitch that got hit out. Given that there are several other guys in contention including Willis for that 2nd LOOGY spot, he didn't help himself any today.

Galvis first time this spring at 2B. I wonder just how serious the Phils are on giving him a crash course at 2B this spring?

I think you're seeing how serious they are right now.

Michael Martinez is about to seal his opening day roster spot with a walk-off homer.

bot 9, all tied up. Who's gonna be the hero?

This is where we miss Ben Fran.

Mighty Mini at the bat.

Mini Mart should be cut immediately for that baserunning.

Hilarious. Mini Mart ran into the first out at 3B and was out by a mile.

That's the thing that bugs me the most about him. He's is just such a shitty fundamental player including being a poor baserunner/base stealer despite good speed.

Cool. That baserunning blunder cancels out his double.

What did he do? Stretch a 1st to third? Go from 2B to 3B on a grounder in front of him?

Damn, Gillies is fast! That wasn't even close.

boob analysis

Lead off double <<< Getting thrown out at 3B in a tie game in the 9th at 3B on a ground ball hit to the SS for the first out.

Of course TMac tries to cover up and saying the Pirates made a great defensive play on the Mini Mart mental blunder. STFU. Even Wheels was critical of him.

lorecore, 2nd to 3rd on a ball in front of him, yes.

BAP, that double on reaffirmed his prowess against AA pitching. He'll be great in Reading...

lorecore - He was at 2B and the ball was hit on the ground to SS. Mini Mart of course just ran on contact & was out by a mile.

Oddly enough, I actually expected Pods to end the game there.

This is no way that this team isn't better off with Galvis on their Opening Day roster over Mini Mart. I have no doubt about that.

The issue though is that Galvis and the Phils are probably much better served over the next few years by having him start the year at Lehigh as the starting SS.

mm must have pictures for cholly to keep him on the ML 25...

MG, that line of thinking only works if you view Galvis as an everyday option down the line. Personally, I don't. Make him a utility guy, upgrade from the current UT guy, and let's move on.

WP - I do too and Galvis is already at a much better defender already at SS than Mini Mart and probably at 2B too even though he has little experience there. If the Phils actually do follow their mantra of supposedly wanting defense first and foremost out of their utility infielder, Galvis is the clear choice.

As for offense, Galvis would probably be incredibly poor (OPS of ~.570-.580 OPS) but what exactly will Mini-Mart produce this year? .600 OPS max and probably somewhat below that.

If Utley is out, Wigginton is going to see the majority of the PT there. Only question would be at 3B where I think Mini-Mart would get his share of PT if Polanco was out.

Preacher: You are most likely right, but the organization can't take the gamble of cutting Gavlis' maturation process short just to upgrade their utility man during a year where they're going to win the division by another 10 games or however much we pissed on the league last year.

Montanez with a solo shot to end it. Who saw that coming?

Let's bring Gillies north. Let him be the speed guy. I'd bring Dom Brown too. Why not?

MG, if Chase goes down, I wouldn't be shocked to see them move Polly to 2B and slot Wiggington in at 3B. That way you get better D at 2B and since Wiggington and MM were going to give you shoddy D at 2B, you might as well take the shoddy D at a less important infield spot, while getting better offense.

I'd also imagine that 2B wouldn't be quite as kind to Polly's aging body as 3B, though.

lorecore: no way the Phils win the division by 10 games this year. Last year, we were much better than the league, and Atlanta collapsed down the stretch. This year, with a tougher division, I think we still win the East, but we have to fight for it this year.

Louuuuuuuu and Luuuuuna stealing the show in Clearwater.

Fatal: The Phils threw in the towel around Sept 15th last year, and lost like 8 in a row or something.

Opening Vegas lines for 2012 MLB Wins:

Phillies 95.5
Braves 85.5
Marlins 83.5
Nationals 81.5
Mets 74.5

If you are so sure the Phils won't win division by 10, then cash in.

lorecore: absolutely correct, I just don't see them being a 100+ win team this year, and I don't see them going 24-12 against the Marlins/Braves again. Perhaps they will, and I would be thrilled if they did. But any decision that affects that affects the team this year that is predicated on the fact that winning the division is an afterthought is a faulty decision.

Also, while I was looking through the Phillies game logs last year, I was mildly surprised to see how much the Phillies used 4 teams in particular to catapult themselves to 102 wins. They went 38-14 against the Marlins, Braves, Padres and Reds. Against the rest of the league, they were a "measly" 64-46 (merely a 94 win pace). Obviously it means nothing to cherry-pick the stats like this, just found it interesting that we basically whipped 4 teams into submission last year. Our usual whipping boys, the Nationals, actually had a winning record against us last year.

Fata - Yeah, it means nothing. To win 100+ game you need to be excellent overall, and then you probably do just crush a couple of teams. If a 100+ win team is just excellent against everyone, it probably doesn't mean anything. Just how wins and losses are distributed over a long season.

Phils went 27-9 against the Nats and Mets in 2009, winning 93 games overall (so 66-60 in their other games). I guess this could be cause for concern too, if you think either of those teams would improve in 2010, but it doesn't really work that way. Some teams get better, others worse. Phils went 21-15 against those teams the following year but won 4 more games overall.

Kyle Kendrick would have completed the game if he was not traded to Japan.

Some more interesting observations as I sit here and peruse the Phillies B-ref page (instead of just going home from work, like I should do).

-Lenny Dykstra was a 8.3 win player in 1990.

-Steve Carlton was a WHOPPING 12.4-win player in 1972. Crazy!

-Between 1974 and 1987, a 14 year period, Mike Schmidt was the Phillies best player (according to bWAR) a RIDICULOUS 13 times. He averaged 7.39 bWAR over that period, eclipsing 10 bWAR once, and eclipsing 7 bWAR 8 times. For reference, Chase Utley has eclipsed 7 bWAR just once (2009). Schmidt did it 8 times!!

-The Phillies best player in 1995 was Ricky Botallico :) 2.7 bWAR

-The Phillies were 69-75 in 1995, and yet finished 2nd in the division. Not bad for being terrible.

-The Phillies have fielded 3 of their 4 oldest teams ever over the past 4 years. Their oldest team came in 1983, with an average age of 31.9. They may be able to eclipse that mark this year. Here's hoping!

That's enough for now...

With the new dippy wild card rules, teams will really stretch it out to be a division winner. A one game wild card playoff is absurd.

Nice to see that, for the most part, the runs are being scored against our pitchers that we're not counting on so much.

More youth:

I honestly wouldn't mind the Phils being infused with a little more youth. Schneider is going to unfortunately break camp with the team regardless but I really wouldn't mind the Phils going with Galvis > Mini Mart (whose 30 BTY) and Savery/Diekman > Willis.

Agreeing with the sentiment of many here, T-Mac is painful to listen to.
His says many inane, unnecessary things during a game.
Despite that he's been involved in baseball in various capacities for years, he has no feel for the game.

Everyone keeps saying more youth yet they want whats his face Podsenick...who is pushing 36...

MiniMart
D Willis
Laynce Nix
Scott Elarton- 4 Horseman of Apocalypse
Wheels-Angel of Woe
Ty Wigginton-Whore of Babylon
Thome's return-The Beast
Tmac-False Prophet

Papelbon seems to me one part BWagner (i.e. talks out of his arse), and one part BMyers (i.e. grating, a-hole personality).
I hope that the clubhouse and the fans can tolerate it for 4 years.

How do you "push" 36? You're either 35 or you're 36.

I don't care how old he is. If he's still fast and can hit even a lick, put him on the team.

Any discussion the Pods is in would be in reference to his value over Juan Pierre. While younger than Scotty Pods, Pierre isn't exactly a spring chicken (he'll be 35 in August).

Yo, new thread.

Thank you very much for this article, very useful. Will continue to focus on.

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