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Tuesday, March 06, 2012

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Need anyone who can watch/hear the game today to give a full report on Cliff's tilt.

Right, Ice. And someone needs to tell us how Laynce's groin looks, too.

As Al Michaels would day, "Nix has been out with a groin."

Mini-Mart should be batting cleanup.

anyone got TOR's lineup? Gose/DArnaud/Drabek?

oh yea and Ben Francisco of course, how could i forget?

No Gose, no d'Arnaud.


oh yea and Ben Francisco of course, how could i forget?

Posted by: lorecore | Tuesday, March 06, 2012 at 11:10 AM

He's Ben Francisco...the very definition of a "forgettable player"...

Can we assume , from the Phils starting lineup, that Brown is taking extra fielding practice?

Bubba, if Brown was smart he'd request extra work, and hit one of the back fields with a coach after the regular workout is over.

100 extra FB a day isn't goona hurt a 23 year old body.

***100 extra FB a day isn't goona hurt a 23 year old body.***

It will when at least 5-10 of those will likely hit his face instead of his glove.

NEPP, touche!!!

Breaking: Phillies prospect Domonic Brown has passed away this afternoon. His attempt to catch 100 fly balls resulted in multiple concussion and chest contusions, resulting in his early demise. Rotoauthority reports the Phillies have added his coffin to the 40man roster, while placing the lawn chair on waivers.

"Domonic Brown ticketed for 2013 if he can ever figure out how to field."

How about hit as well? Guy is a bust, hopefully we can trade him. Tired of Ruben making excuses that last year was his fault. The guy is just all hype. Which stinks, because I drank the KoolAid for several years.

As far as rookies go, Brown's bat was completely fine last year. He didnt get sent down due to his offensive abilities.

lorecore-

Now I feel guilty for suggesting extra fielding practice

Frank Gailey(LH reliever from BenFran) vs Jeremy Horst(LH reliever from Valdez) should be a rivetting compeition all season. Who gets cut first?

Mac--Brown is not a bust. He showed lots of promise at the plate last year and has looked even better so far in ST. Even his outs have been hit hard and against lefties he's shown a good eye and the ability to lay off curves out of the zone. He still needs drills on fundamentals: a laser arm is not much use if you can't hit a cut off man; speed in the field and the basepaths not useful if you can't catch the ball or don't know where to run. I think he can improve these areas with work and practice. In fact, if he gets better in these areas then he might become a cost-controlled asset that allows the team to resign Hamels by sliding Mayberry to center and letting Vic walk (love ya Shane, but if we have to choose...). To me, that would be worth more than what he could bring in a trade. I think the FO has finally learned its lesson and is going to give him time to grow in AAA this year, which seems the best strategy. I don't think he's being showcased for a trade this spring, and I don't buy that the Phils are down on him. I think he's absolutely crucial to any hopes they have of remaining competitive as the current core of position players deteriorates.

Mac - Brown has a had a whopping career 246 ABs MLB ABs, showed notable improvement last year, and is 24. How can he possibly be considered a 'bust' at this point?

Plus you have to look at production at the corner OF position. It is down. Way down.

This was the average team production in LF last year:

.255/.319/.407 (.727 OPS)

'10 - .269/.337/.431 (.768 OPS)
'09 - .269/.340/.440 (.780 OPS)
'08 - .269/.343/.442 (.785 OPS)
'07 - .276/.346/.452 (.799 OPS)
'06 - .278/.353/.465 (.818 OPS)

At the height of roid-mania in the late 90s/early 00s, MLB production out of LF averaged well-above .800 OPS. Some years even closer to .850.

Drop in production in production at the corner OF positions (and 3B) is a big reason why offense has dipped the last few years.

If he gets 400-500 ABs in '13 and isn't better than a 100+ OPS, it might be fair to begin labeling him as a bust.

If isn't unreasonable that Brown could become around an ~.800 OPS player which given the current trend and lack of talent in LF in MLB would make him a real asset especially since he is cost-controlled.

That laughable part is that Bill Baer and others argue that he will somehow become a good defensive or above average defensive player even in LF. This despite several years in the minors as a corner OF.

Some of these guys are dead...

With not much else to b8tch about, I'm a bit disappointed that Thome still isn't getting a 1B start.

Yesterday's broadcast even indicated that he's excited to get out and see if he can play the field. Give him a chance Cholly!

To be fair to Brown, he has only played a whopping 31 games total in his minor league career in LF with 27 of them coming last year in Lehigh.

Understand why some might want him to open the year with the Phils, but he and the Phils both would be much better served if he can take some lumps while getting familiar with LF at Lehigh, get some confidence bat offensively, and get his mojo back.

One of the things you can't measure intrinsically is confidence/mojo and Brown strikes me as a guy who doesn't necessary radiate confidence regardless of his results.

***Some of these guys are dead...***

Cross them off then.

Willard - Charlie said that Thome will play 1B in a minor league game this week. Don't know which day though.

Rookie Season:

Player A: .196 AVG/.324 OBP/.697 OPS (92 OPS+)
Player B: .245 AVG/.333 OBP/.725 OPS (97 OPS+)


Anyone want to take a gander on who is who in the above comparison?

Given Brown's enormous problems reading fly balls, one logical solution might be to move him to first base. But, of course -- well, never mind.

***Some of these guys are dead...***

Cross them off then.

Dave Bush immediately comes to mind.

RedBurb, thanks! Will be interesting to see how he holds up. If he can even make a spot start once a week or so, it will be a big help. Like I mentioned yesterday, his bat speed looks just fine (certainly better than Raul's did last year) and I think he can still hit.

BAP took the words out of my mouth; if Brown does develop into a good offensive player but continues to clown it up in LF, isn't it a shame we have a rapidly aging 1B locked in at Brown's natural default position for years and years and years?

BTW, I wouldn't keep blaming Brown's struggles on the switch from RF to LF; remember all the plays he butchered in RF before we acquired Pence? NEPP is right that he wasn't sent down for offensive problems.

He wasn't sent down for any problems. He was sent down because they acquired Pence and there was no room in RF for him anymore. He played RF for a long time in the minors before he butchered 'all those plays' (which if I remember correctly was maybe 3 plays) in the majors. Hunter Pence has also misplayed some balls in RF, but he doesn't have confirmation bias working against him as much as Brown does. People need to relax. Anyone who calls Brown a bust is being ridiculous. Maybe his problems in LF will persist, but it is way too early to say.

Brown's development lies almost solely on defense. He was more than adequate at the plate, especially when compared with any alternatives. Also, don't forget that he was coming back from a broken hamate bone injury, an injury that saps power and makes hitting that much more difficult.

He may have a long swing, and is still a bit prone to some inside junk pitching, but he's young and has all of the offensive tools.

Willard - I'm also looking forward to see how much Thome has left in the tank. I'm heading to Clearwater tomorrow night until Saturday night. If I catch Thome in the field, I'll give a report as to how he looks.

Looks like audio only for today's game via mlb.tv. Typically a good thing, except that TBag is doing the audio with L.A.!!

"In fact, if he gets better in these areas then he might become a cost-controlled asset that allows the team to resign Hamels by sliding Mayberry to center and letting Vic walk (love ya Shane, but if we have to choose...)."


Phillyrhetoric, your post seems to assume Mayberry can repeat some semblance of his 2011 offensive production over a full season.

Well, assuming Mayberry can repeat, what about moving Mayberry to RF, trading Pence and re-signing Vic?

NEPP, the first one is easy: That would be Hall of Famer Michael Jack Schmidt.

Dunno bout the 2nd.

No video, so I cannot visually confirm, however it sounds as if Cliff's tilt is still in preseason form...

HA HA. Take a look at this link:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/west-links-dbacks-cespedes-maybin.html

The author discusses the D'backs trading prospects, and one of them is named Adam Eaton.

I think they got the link in his name wrong.

That Brett Lawrie kid is no joke. Raked as a 21yr old at the end of last year (152 OPS+) and hit his 4th 2B of the spring already off Lee today.

Shawn Marcum's got some pitching to do or Brewers may have gotten majorily ripped off.

Vic drives in chooch/rollins for 2-0 lead.

KK with a rare K to the first batter he faces.

The irony of Brown being terrible defensively in LF is that both Laynce Nix and Juan Pierre are pretty bad themselves. As, of course, were Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell.

Other than Mayberry, the Phillies haven't had a good defensive LF in a long, long time.

Yeah, Jack, you're right. The Phils haven't had a defensive whiz out there since the Luzinski era.

Brown's LF play makes that of Raul & Burrell seem downright stellar by comparison. The kid is a total flop in the field, & that's gonna hurt his career prospects far more than anything he does or doesn't do at the plate. Let's all hope an overeager AL team is eventually willing to give up too much to acquire him in a trade.

Brown will be fine. he's hit at every level, and a team will tolerate a lot of poor fielding if you can hit the ball.

Jack: Maybe his current groin injury may limit him, but normally Nix is a solid defender in LF.

Maybe we can get Bruntlett back to play defense for Brown in the late innings.

Gaurenteed WFC formula if I remember correctly.

Iorecore: His fielding stats are all over the place (mostly because he's never gotten enough regular time out there), but I watched a lot of him last year with the Nats, and to my eyes, he wasn't anything positive out there.I know he was more athletic earlier in his career, but he's older and bulked up now and his range has seemed to suffer.

I could be wrong and you may be right--and it might just be a matter of subjective opinion. But as someone who watched a whole lot of Nats baseball last year, he never impressed me.

Santana was routinely at 87-88 MPH on the gun today. Supposedly will get back to 89-90 MPH but probably not before Opening Day. Didn't really throw his trade changeup that much at all.

Wonder what he will be going ahead forward. His days of being an above-average K pitcher are (7.0 K/9 or better) sounds like they are probably gone although I wonder his trademark changeup will still be the devastating pitch that it once.

I am looking forward though to a couple of Halladay-Santana possible matchups this year. One of the only times it will be interesting to watch a Phils-Mets pitching matchup.

The reasons that Burrell and Ibanez were tolerated were because their offensive statistics outwieghed their defensive miscues. Burrell was above average offensively for the majority of his career here and after Ibanez was an MVP candidate during the first half of 2009, people tended to overlook his defense.

My prediction is once Brown starts putting up the numbers he is capable at the plate, those who complain about his defense will have nothing to complain about. Or if they do complain, they are just miserable people who need to complain about something.

I agree that concern over the defensive prowess of our left fielder is pretty low on the priority list. I don't think anyone's getting to the heart of the issue with Brown which is that he has the physical attributes to be a much better outfielder. Burrell and Ibanez were pretty limited, in terms of range. Brown can get to more balls than he does whereas Ibanez tried to get to more balls than he should and Burrell was wisely content to let balls drop in front of him rather than play a single into a double. Brown's sins tend to be more of the fundamental variety - things that should not happen - which can presumably be corrected by greater attention and coaching of those fundamentals. The best place to get that coaching is not likely to be on a major league team contending for a pennant.

Luna continues to see alot more time early. Mini-Mart took over 0fer today with 0-2 before getting lifted for C. Hernandez.

Interesting that LA has commented twice today where the Phils looked tentative to steal a base and mentioned that they look like they miss Lopes.

Arguably not playing Lopes an extra few hundred thousand (rumored it was a difference of ~200k annually) is going to go down as one of the more penny-wise, pound-foolish things Amaro has done here in his tenure as GM.

The weird thing about Brown is how someone so obviously athletic can look so clueless when playing LF.

Speaking of Brian Bocock, there he is.

As he matures a little more, I hope that Brown realizes that his defense is limiting his progress(read $$$, if that's more of a motivator), and work harder and be more receptive to coaching on his defense.

Good speed and a good arm are already there, he looks like he needs better ball recognition off the bat.

MG, I also noticed the Lopes comments, particularly about how it's impacted Vic. Very odd that LA keeps bringing it up, though I'm sure that there's absolutely something there.

BTW, how dare no one recognize Tuffy's strike-em-out-throw-em-out DP????

Ok, this Dom love-fest has gone too far. It's time for me to step in with my first negative rant of the 2012 season.

Brown was NOT a good offensive player last year. Other than his ability to get on base in the least productive way possible (i.e., drawing walks), he was a very bad offensive player -- just like he was during his call-up in 2010, and just like he was at AAA last year.

He has performed in the minors in the past, and would seem to have both the physical tools, and plate discipline, to one day be a good hitter. But to read today's thread, one would think that his future greatness is some kind of foregone conclusion. In fact, it is far from a foregone conclusion. The only thing we do know about him with a fair degree of certainty is that his defense is as positively awful today as it was back in 2010. It's not Ibanez or Burrell awful. It's not Juan Pierre awful. It's not even Manny Ramirez awful. It's more like, worst defensive outfielder most of us will ever lay eyes on awful. If he's going to be an Ibanez/ Burrell caliber defensive player, he has a LONG way to go. He's got almost as long to go if he wants to be the .830 to .900 OPS hitter that those guys had to be in order to justify their rotten defense.

Well, that should stimulate some much needed lively discussion here...

While many on this site are guilty of overvaluing Phillies prospects, I do think that Brown has a much better shot of contributing to the big league squad in a meaningful way than does Galvis.

I think that Brown hasn't had enough AB's at the MLB level, and when he did, he was still recovering from a broken hamate bone, to begin to make any real assessment on his offensive output. My projections are based on his previous ability to quickly adjust to minor league pitching.

BAP: Unlike Jack, I don't think Dom Brown is remotely as good defensively as Laynce Nix, but, on offense, I don't see how you can complain about a guy who puts up an OPS+ of 97 in MLB as a 23-year-old.

I think that's the point that a bunch of posters are trying to make though BAP. Time will tell how good Brown can be. There should be no way, either positive or negative, that anyone should be making predictions of what Brown will become based on 280 PAs and 67 games in the field at the MLB level. To definitively say what Brown will become is wrong.

But then again patience hasn't always been a strong point of fans, especially those of Philadelphia teams.

Clout: I see you are getting your Spring Training work in as well. Decent job of completely mischaracterizing my comment on LF defense re: Brown and Nix. A little more work and you'll be primed and ready for the season.

The DH in Spring Training is for the birds. I want to see Cole, Willis and Savery in the batter's box.

Tuffy swipes a bag too.

Frankly, there's nothing this guy can't do that Schneider can.

***Brown was NOT a good offensive player last year. ***

As far as rookie seasons go, his was pretty solid...as my comparison of him to Schmidt above showed (Player A was Domonator)

Galvis brought his bat to Florida...

Re: The discussion on the earlier thread of Jeff Jackson or John Stearns being the worst Phils draft pick. I vote for neither, but between those two Stearns was clearly the better pick by a wide margin. Don't forget he was traded for Tug McGraw. There's no 1980 championship without Tugger. Even with better players getting picked later, Stearns was a pretty good pick.

My vote for worst pick ever goes to Trey McCall in 1985. He never made it out of A ball. Jeff Jackson played a couple seasons at Reading. Yes McCall was taken later in the round (16 as opposed to Jackson's 4th) but good players were still available. Brian McRae, Joe Magrane and Gregg Jefferies were 3 of the next 4 picks.

Jack: Your defense of all things Brown is almost as laughable as your defense of all things Feliz a few years ago, but if you said Nix is a better fielder than Brown I missed it and I stand corrected.

clout: I'm not really complaining. I'm just noting that it was a pretty empty 97 OPS+, since he hit for neither average nor power. It's great that he showed good plate discipline as a rookie. What he didn't show, though, was the ability to actually hit. And he's going to have to hit quite a lot to be a starting left fielder. His plate discipline bodes well for him but he needs to actually hit before I'll join the rest of Beerleaguer in declaring that his offense will eventually be good enough to offset his truly horrendous defense. I mean, if he has a 97 OPS+ again this year, I don't want him playing LF even if he plays Gold Glove defense.

BAP,

In all fairness, there really isn't such a thing as an "empty" OPS+. It's already got the factors like slugging and park effects factored in, which is why it's better than using batting average in the first place.

A 97+ OPS LF with Luzinski-level defense is not valuable, granted. If his defense never improves, I can see the break-even for him being a MLB starter at around 115. For reference, .280/.350/.440 would be a 115 OPS+ at the Bank last year. I think Brown will get there by 2014, and I think his defense will graduate to Lonnie Smith-level "fast-guy generically bad".

Obviously, I didn't see the game today, but the other day, Galvis got on top of an up and in fastball and blasted it down the line. It was pretty a impressive swing for a guy Clout assures us will never hit at the major league level.

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