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Sunday, March 04, 2012

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repost:

if they send Martinez down(or preferably take him out behind a clearwater practice field and shoot him), I agree with clout that picking up someone else's scraps is a good route to take.

I don't see them using Galvis yet unless they basically give up on his chances of being an everyday player in the future. Realistically he probably will only be a utility guy, but it'd be foolish to just come to that conclusion with a 22 year old.

Bring back Bocock!

Enjoy the Michael Martinez era, Beerleaguer. It's rare to find unanimous agreement here on anything.

Galvis is blocked for three years as long as Rollins is healthy. Or close to healthy. It's high time they take him around the infield for some tutoring. In fact, it's well past time considering they gave Wilson Valdez away. I still don't understand that move, while Martinez is still here. Valdez was clearly the better player and didn't cost much.

I see the castoff of another team filling in, rather than Frandsen going North. In fact, Frandsen will likely have "the meeting" and be told he's making the team, then he'll have that "other meeting" where he's notified that some player in the AL, whom we've never hear of, but had fifty at bats each of the last three years, has been cut lose and he's taking the final roster spot.

Teheran of Atlanta gave up a ridiculous 6 home runs in 2 innings today.

Brut by Faberge

Watching Galvis play SS the last couple days, I don't think it's a stretch to see him as even better defensively than Rollins right now, considering the half-step of range that Jimmy has lost.

It's too bad he can't hit, because he would win a lot of Gold Gloves in the majors if his bat was better.

Galvis does looks very good in the hole/backhand, but i think that is still a stretch to say hes better than jimmy.

Galvis has played exclusively at SS in the minor leagues. He's not going to even make the first cut when the Phils slim down in 10 days.

Frandsen hasn't played much SS at all at the MLB level (32 games total) but has seen a fair amount in the minors including '09 (67 games total) and even last year with the Phils' minor league clubs (25 games total).

Cholly really likes Mini-Mart for whatever reason. Unless Mini-Mart puts on a defensive display of ineptitude this spring, he's going to make the Opening Day roster. Cholly has said a couple of times including right after the Valdez trade that he views Mini Mart as his utility infielder this year. Sounds like Amaro will be the one to overrule Cholly on this roster move.

Galvis is an elite defender at SS...he really is. That throw he made deep to his right today was an MLB SS play.

He was really impressive today.

From the last thread- MG, what the heck is the difference between my saying we couldn't offer Theriot a chance to start (which is a fact) and the "reality" you posted, an article which stated that the Giants were offering Theriot a chance to compete for a starting spot in at least a platoon role?

Know what I don't like? The nickname "Mini Mart." Dumb. Said.

I still don't understand keeping MM over Valdez, either, or signing Chad Qualls.

Honestly, if Galvis is THAT good at SS, unless we're worried about stunting his offensive growth by bringing him up early, it would make sense to have him on the team instead of Mini Mart.

The fact is, Wiggington, who's no great shakes at 3rd, will probably get most of our backup start at third, and unless Polly is out at the same time Chase is out, Polly can handle 2nd if we need him to. I just don't think Mini-Mart should ever see the field.

Michael. Martinez. Sucks.


End of story. Spare me the pain of watching him play. I'm not even sure he's fit to hang on a Double-A team.

Phils' female fans will appreciate Frandsen if he makes the MLB club. He had his share in SF & supposedly did quit well with the ladies there.

It was flat ignorant to trade Valdez, & the Phillies are gonna pay for having treated infield depth as a non-issue when it's arguably their single biggest weakness.

Really look at them to dabble at third. If he can hit 250 this spring. At Aaa his fast track will be at third. Kevin f will make squad I believe. He can play 2nd 3rd and SS. If Jimmy out for two plus weeks then freddy G will play SS. He's got arm and glove. It's amazing how third base has transformed to a power position to an high ave/ OBS position. Not many power hitters out there. Texas third prob the one that comes to my mind.

Hopefully Pat the Bat brings Frandsen his black book when he arrives for the retirement ceremony. He could clean up with some of Burrell's cast offs.

Teheran of Atlanta gave up a ridiculous 6 home runs in 2 innings today.

You think you can give up the long ball? Wait 'til you see ME give up the long ball!

Valdez was dumped to sign Qualls. Qualls might end up sucking, but I can atleast understand the thought process - shed a million dollar backup for a reliever of the 'quantity over quality' mold since they have question marks of health of other relievers.

Iceman - Because Theriot wasn't being given a starter's job. Wasn't even given a guaranteed contract. He basically competing for a limited platoon role this spring.

Theriot would have had more assurance of more regular PT in SF but you don't think that a little extra cash & guaranteed deal might have been enough to convince him to sign here?

Given his defense shortcomings though and the likelihood that he doesn't produce at greater than a .670-.680 OPS, I can understand why Amaro wasn't interested in giving Theriot significantly larger dollars than Valdez on a guaranteed deal ($950k vs. say $1.5M).

Fata: I think there's definitely an issue with stunting his offensive growth. You want him to get at least a season at AAA playing every day and getting 500 ABs against good pitching. He's still young (will play this entire season at 22), so there's really no harm in a full season at AAA.

Either way, though, next season he should break camp as utility guy. If he's proven he can hold his own offensively at AAA, then you've got a guy who can immediately help the team, is a clear upgrade over Mini-Mart, and should be ready to serve a year as understudy to Rollins before taking over the full-time job. If he can't hit AAA pitching, then you aren't worried about his development as much anymore, and he should be up to replace Mini-Mart for defensive reasons alone.

"[Frandsen] had his share in SF & supposedly did quite well with the ladies there."

If he makes the team (which I seriously doubt), I suspect he'll soon find that Philadelphia doesn't have nearly the straight men to straight women ratio that San Francisco has. Hence, much like his PCL-inflated hitting numbers, his "scoring" numbers figure to go down too.

If Galvis was our primary Utility IF, he could theoretically get 300 ABs...Valdez easily got that many in the role.

Probably wouldn't hurt his development that much.

OVerall, I'd rather he go to AAA and develop as he seems to be a legit prospect. He's really thickened up in the last couple years. I remember him when he was 140 lbs soaking wet...he looks closer to 170-180 of muscle now. Makes me think his offensive breakout was real.

So then the majority here believe that Galvis is our new light hitting 3rd base prospect to be?
Polly is gone next year, right? I guess he steps up at 3rd then after some more seasoning at AAA.

minimart provides nothing. would rather see frandsen or Luna come north but this leaves a hole at backup ss unless another veteran backup surfaces on the waiver wire the martinez era will continue. ugh

3B?!? Why waste his glove at 3B?!?

He's an elite defensive SS...that's his future.

Not for three years.Do you suggest moving James to 3rd to bring Galvis up next year or just eating J-roll's salary?

Unless Rube gets David Wright somehow, I want to see JRoll fulltime at 3B within a year or two and Galvis fulltime at SS.

Freddy Galvis cannot be a starting 3B in the major leagues. His poor offense simply isn't worth it there, when you consider the reduced impact of his defense.

If both needed to play everyday, the move would be Rollins at 3B and Galvis at SS.

Those, however, are the sorts of bridges you cross when you get to them. Which is at least two years away. An eternity in baseball.

I'd move Jimmy before I'd move Galvis

Freddy's the man at SS. His (apparent) development at the plate makes this even more believable. Regarding his role as a utility player, are bona-fide SS prospects and ML utility players really interchangeable? I don't think so.

Quite the quandary. Could we flip Jimmy Rollins to a west-coast team next year and get a good 3rd baseman in return? Heresy!!

Regardless, would Jimmy play out his contract out west if things go south for the Phils this year? If such a trade might bring a 3rd baseman, that sounds like a good deal for the ’13 Phils.

James Calvin Rollins has a ton of pride. Unless stupid amounts of money were involved, I can't see him ever agreeing to a trade, anywhere.

The more relevant question for Rollins' pride is not whether he would accept a trade, but whether he would accept a position switch to 3B.

Isn't Galvis in the mold of Rey Ordonez, having the ability to make any play possible, but boot more plays then he should?

Not knocking his defense, but i thought most reports said he still had a lot of consistency to find still....as most 22yr olds who just got into AAA for a month.

"Freddy Galvis cannot be a starting 3B in the major leagues. His poor offense simply isn't worth it there, when you consider the reduced impact of his defense."

But if they're both starting for the Phillies, it's neither here nor there that Galvis's bat plays better at 3rd than at shortstop. I mean, would an offense which had Rollins at 3rd and Galvis at SS be superior to an offense which had Galvis at 3rd & Rollins at SS? If it came down to having both guys in the starting lineup, the only relevant consideration would be: which alignment gives you the better defense?

On another note:

De Fratus was cleared to resume throwing again tomorrow.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't a previous iteration of the Rollins-to-3B, Galvis-to-SS discussion the start of the famous "third basemen need to be tall" BL running joke?

Denys Reyes is available again. The season is saved.

I'll write 2 words on Martinez. He sucks. So does Qualls. We shoulda signes Theriot instead.

We think Galvis couldn't hack it offensively at 3B, yet we tolerated the likes of Bell, Nunez and now a probably washed up Polly?

I always in the back of me head think if Galvis shows offensively that he is ready they would trade Rollins at one point. Presumably for prospects free up salary space. Just a thought..

The potential replacements the Phils have at 2B, SS, 3B and C are all downgrades from the current incumbents.

The first guy to be replaced is probably Polanco, but there is no good candidate to replace him either w/i the system or around the majors. We don't want Wright. Headley is not so good as Polanco. Guys on the farm are years away. The Phils' best bet is to keep their fingers crossed, get another couple of seasons out of Polanco and then fill in with veterans until one of the prospects is ready. I am not optimistic that we can trade for another team's top prospects at 3B or any of these other key positions.

I expect that Rollins and Utley will be the starters at short and 2B for several more years. I expect Galvis to be a good utility man, nothing more. If the Phils are lucky, one of the 2011 draftees will be an adequate replacement for one of the two. Along about 2015, I expect the Phils to dip into the free agency market for a high quality middle-infield replacement.

Valle may become a better catcher than Ruiz someday, but it's too soon to tell.

In the coming years, my guess is that the Phils' infield, including first base, will become a team weakness as the starters continue to age.

I am optimistic that the team will remain a strong playoff contender for several more years, however, because of their pitching and what I expect to be a productive outfield offensively.

lorecore: Isn't Galvis in the mold of Rey Ordonez, having the ability to make any play possible, but boot more plays then he should?

Not knocking his defense, but i thought most reports said he still had a lot of consistency to find still....as most 22yr olds who just got into AAA for a month.


Yes. The talk of Galvis being an elite ss is very premature because he made a play in the hole. He also dropped a ball that hit his glove in short left. He does the same thing often with no wind in play. One nice play, one poor play. Elite has a different definition to me.

Quote of the Day

"Honestly, I would take him any day of the week," Halladay said. "I really would."

Roy Halladay on Tuffy Goosewurst.

Re: Mini-Mart, this is the quote from Charlie that baffles me:

"Michael did a good job defensively for us last season."

The sabermetrics don't show that. The eyes don't show that.

Is it possible that what Charlie means by "good job defensively" is his ability to play 6 positions? The man is a major league manager so he surely knows what good defense is in terms of range, footwork, sure-handedness, arm strength and accuracy, right?

FWIW, several scouting reports say Galvis projects as a utlity INF. I think he could be an everyday player with a bad team, but it's quite possible his bat would hold him to a bench role with a contender.

I'd be very surprised if they don't give him at least a half season at LV.

Thegoodphight did a nearly comprehensive look at how the Phillies should perform against LHP in 2012. Given the Micheal Martiniez-ness of the last couple threads, I thought these two jabs at Mini-Mart from teh article would be interesting to most here:

"Last and least is Michael Martinez, whose performance against lefties was abysmal. Mini-mart managed to hit for only a .171 wOBA in 54 PA. His .020 ISO, 1.9% BB%, and .209 BABIP were all absurdly low. I can't say that he'll improve, but it's pretty much impossible for him to decline. Hopefully, Ty Wigginton will be able to cover the utility role against any lefty starters, as Martinez is worse than most of the Phillies' pitchers against lefties."

and

"...The fifth tier, awful batters against lefties, consists of Brian Schneider. Then the sixth through 199th tiers are empty. Finally, in the 200th tier, is Michael Martinez."

But, you know....versatility, and all that.

"Todd Zolecki reports the Phillies have begun the process of teaching Freddy Galvis second and third base, “making him a potential option as a utility infielder.”


OK, the minute I read this I confess that I thought of Handel's "Halleluiah Chorus".

MG- I never said Theriot was being offered a starter's job. I said he was being offered a chance- a chance the Phils couldn't give him.

At the tail end of a fringe ML career, do I think that an opportunity to play would be worth more than the very small difference in the contract the Phils could've given him? Yeah, probably.

And the debate on March 5th is laughable. We are writing off Qualls already and pining for some slap-hitting UT infielder. TTI was right- the hand-wringing in the first game thread has beyond hilarious.

And yeah, I'm officially on-board the cut Mini-Mart express. I was much less concerned with his presence on the roster last year when Valdez was here and soaking up most of his ABs. There is absolutely no reason this guy should be our back-up anything, or even a back-up to a back-up. There's no excuse. If he makes it on to the 25-man roster, it will be one of the dumbest roster decisions I've seen in my 28+ years watching sports.

Manuel needs to remove himself from 2007-08, when Abe Nunez, Eric Brutlett, So Taguchi, etc., were acceptable since he was getting a surplus of offense from other areas. Michael Martinez would have been a better fit with those teams because of his speed and ability to field six positions.

"Frandsen sneaks onto the team when the Phillies realize they mostly need a righty pinch hitter with infield credentials."

Sounds like you're describing Wilson Valdez. Frandsen has more potential pop, but Valdez is a decent situational hitter and of course a better defensive player. I understand that moving Valdez was all about salary, but now they're banking on a sub-standard like Martinez and a guy with no ML experience to take his place. I think the Phils probably regret letting Miguel Cairo go without a second thought after the kind of job he did for the Reds last year in the infield, and they may end up regretting it with Valdez.

***FWIW, several scouting reports say Galvis projects as a utlity INF. I think he could be an everyday player with a bad team, but it's quite possible his bat would hold him to a bench role with a contender.***

I'd say his upside is basically Adam Everett...basically a great defender/8 hole hitter on a team with other offensive options that cover his inadequacy.

I also see him getting at least half a year in AAA and probably the whole year.

Let's not go overboard with Galvis booting Rollins from SS. Can Galvis rise above the pressure and make the play that Jimmy made to clinch the division in 2008, for example?

Preacher: "We think Galvis couldn't hack it offensively at 3B, yet we tolerated the likes of Bell, Nunez and now a probably washed up Polly?"

While he's coming off a 'intriguing' year at the plate, Galvis' numbers are still pathetic.

Gavlis career MiLB: .246/.292/.321
Nunez career MiLB: .269/.361/.340
Nunez career MLB: .242/.313/.314

Nunez's career minors are a little jacked up because he spent time there as a 30yr old, but not by much. So basically, Gavlis is on track to be 'alomst' as good as Nunez at this point. Lets try and hold back our prayers that he will be the utility man of our dreams.

Something I would never have guessed - No Hit Nunez was rated as high as the 30th best prospect in baseball when he was a 23yr old in AAA, and in the top 100 4 out of his first 5 years in the minors.

I think the safe bet is to assume that pressure is an irrelevant factor, until it's shown that it has an impact on defensive players in high leverage situations.

For example, Chase Utley made that big time, "high pressure" play to throw out Jason Bartlett at the plate in the 2008 World Series Game 5 to keep the game tied.

But then, how many balls did he boot in the 2010 NLCS against the Giants? Did Utley overcome the pressure in 2008, but then succumb to it in 2010?

Pressure may play a factor, but I'll always feel more comfortable with the better defensive player, regardless of the situation. Not to say that Galvis is better than Rollins, just a general thought.

clutch fielding - or in other words - SABR kryptonite

Wonder what the excitement about Nunez was. He was a SS with a decent OBP. My guess is that he had some projectability and scouts liked his place in the defensive spectrum. If the Phils had a 21 year old SS with a 340+ OBP between A+ and AA, he'd probably crack BA's top 100 so long as his defense weren't atrocious.

Just tells you how hard the road will be for Galvis.

I would put Galvis' most likely comp to that of John McDonald...aka a guy that sticks around for several years as a UT IF based on his glove. McDonald was one of the best if not the best defensive SS in the AL for several years but his bat was non-existent.

I have no personal animosity toward ichael Martinez.

I just don't think he's an MLB calibre baseball player.

His track record supports my opinion.

Thus, I have to wonder just what the thought process is amongst the Phils' braintrust.

If not for the Rule 5 pick, Mini Mart would likely still be a AA player in Washington. His 'versatility' is that he is mediocre to terrible defensively at 5-6 positions. His play at 2B yesterday was atrocious...and in keeping with his other appearances there last year. I shudder to think about when he played CF last year...zero instincts in the outfield.

Mini Mart makes Bruntlett look like an All-Star.

"The potential replacements the Phils have at 2B, SS, 3B and C are all downgrades from the current incumbents."


derek, this is true of every team. That's why the guy who's there is the "incumbent".

clout, to your point about Charlie and his complimenting mini-mart's defense:


Charlie very rarely says anything bad about one of his players. He likes to keep them in a good frame of mind. that seems to be his MO by the way he runs the clubhouse.

Therefore, either Charlie is dillusional or we have to take what he says publicly about his players with a grain of salt.

"Mini Mart makes Bruntlett look like an All-Star."

If you are referring to Bruntlett's entire career, then this is an undeniably true statement. If you're referring to his career as a Phillie, then you've gone overboard. Bruntlett was the single worst Phillies non-pitcher of my lifetime.

"Something I would never have guessed - No Hit Nunez was rated as high as the 30th best prospect in baseball when he was a 23yr old in AAA, and in the top 100 4 out of his first 5 years in the minors."


lorecore, just another example that the scouts are not always right.

***Bruntlett was the single worst Phillies non-pitcher of my lifetime.***

No, Mini Mart is and its not even close.

At least Gnome was decent defensively.

As for Martinez's "versatility," I must have a different definition of the term than the Phillies do. If Cholly told Jim Thome to play CF, I suspect he would go play it. There's even a chance that he might catch a ball or two that was hit within a 3-foot radius of where he was standing. Would that make him versatile? Because that's pretty much what Mini-Mart is doing at about 4 of these 6 positions that he supposedly plays.

I think Thome would be a solid CF...compared to Mini Mart.

Thome played 40 games at SS in his Rookie Ball debut...back when he was 18. This fact automatically makes him more versatile than Michael Martinez.

NEPP: Bruntlett was an abomination defensively. Remember the 2 errors before the unassisted TP? Remember all the botched plays in LF after Cholly inserted him to replace Burrell?

On offense, they were pretty much equals. Buntlett had a .550 Phillies OPS. Mini-Mart's is .540. But Bruntlett played in an offensive era so his OPS+ was actually 4 points lower.

*** Bruntlett was an abomination defensively. Remember the 2 errors before the unassisted TP? Remember all the botched plays in LF after Cholly inserted him to replace Burrell?***

# of GW Runs in World Series play:

Eric Bruntlett: 2
Michael Martinez: 0

That is how I judge utility infielders.

Also, if you go by their 1st year on the Phillies, the OPS+ breaks down as follows:

Gnome: 55
Martinez: 48

NEPP: When Michael Martinez scores the game-winning run in all 4 games of the 2012 World Series, and hits 3 homeruns in the series, you may reconsider your views about how he stacks up compared to Bruntlett.

When that happens, I will no longer consider him to be the worst player in franchise history.

BAP, is Mini-Mart hitting at least one walk-off in your above scenario? Hard to believe he could hit three homeruns in the Series, while score 4 game winning runs, and not have the two coincide at least once.

Also, judging by WAR (which may be virtually meaningless for a utility/bench player), Bruntlett had a -0.9 fWAR his last year as a Phillie, Mini-Mart "only" had a -0.4 fWAR last year.

So NEPP's contention that Bruntlett was turly the worst Phillie of the recent past may just be true.

But Bruntlett took the unhittable David Price (the X-Factor in the 2008 World Series, mind you) deep on one pitch. So he's got that going for him. He also may have some of his gear in Cooperstown. Take that Mini-Mart!!

BTW, if my contempt for Eric Bruntlett seems disproportionate to his level of play, it is because I hold him personally accountable for all those times that Cholly stupidly subbed him into the game for Burrell in the 6th inning, and all those times that Bruntlett, consequently, ended up hitting with 2 men on base in a tied game in the 9th.

***Bruntlett had a -0.9 fWAR his last year as a Phillie, Mini-Mart "only" had a -0.4 fWAR last year.***

I feel confident that Mini Mart could top that mark if they keep him on the roster all season.

"Bruntlett was the single worst Phillies non-pitcher of my lifetime."

Shenanigans! unless you are 2 years old. The Phillies have a proud history of terrible, terrible players. Many of them starters. I'm going with Desi Relaford. I hated that guy.

JBird/Fat: Desi Relaford's Phillies OPS was .643, which is more than .100 points higher than Mini-Mart's and .93 points higher than Bruntlett's.

But forget OPS. I have my own formula for calculating WAR. I won't bore you with all the intricate calculations that go into it. I'll just say that I subtract significant points for: (1) failing to play to expectations; and (2) being used in a way which maximizes the damage to the team.

I had no expectations at all for Mini-Mart, so he gets neither positive nor negative points in this category. Ditto Desi Relaford. My expectations for Bruntlett were modest but I did think he'd be better than Abe Nunez. He wasn't, so he loses points here.

But it is the 2nd category where Bruntlett really separates himself from the field. Relaford played because there was no one better on the team. Hence, he did no damage to the team above and beyond the damage done by his own crappiness. Mini-Mart took PAs from Wilson Valdez and Pete Orr. Bruntlett took PAs from Pat Burrell. Q.E.D.

Clearly you guys are missing the only stat that matters here: BAP-E (BAP's expectations).

I'd ask BAP what specific times Bruntlett's ABs in place of Burrell late in the game cost the team a win, but I'm fairly sure he's kept a log book of every such occasion.

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