Beerleaguer for breakfast: A sluggish spring for Raul

What stands out about Raul Ibanez right now, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post, “is not just that he is 2-for-24. It is that the ball is coming off of his bat with little life.” [Story]

Beerleaguer: To my recollection, Ibanez always looked horrible in spring training. Actually, 2009 might have been his worst spring, then he went gangbusters over the first two months of the season. He’s a different player now. He's 39, no longer a full-timer and no longer viewed as a capable left fielder. He’ll cheat for a fastball more than anyone. Sherman reports that Ibañez has been working with hitting coach Kevin Long on eliminating some of the movement in his swing. But much of Ibanez's success, and failure, this season will be predicated on the hitters around him. He was signed for just $1.1 million, so don’t expect the Yankees to stay as loyal as they have with their other ancient pinstripe lifers.

Today at Bradenton vs. Pirates: 1. Juan Pierre, RF; 2. Scott Podsednik, CF; 3. Hunter Pence, DH; 4. John Mayberry Jr., 1B; 5. Lou Montanez, LF; 6. Pete Orr, 3B; 7. Brian Schneider, C; 8. Kevin Frandsen, 2B; 9. Freddy Galvis, SS. Cliff Lee starts.

Comments

[sifl]

Whoa the D-Train has left the station.

[awh]

"There is no way anyone in the Phils' organization including Cholly would have much of an opinion of Mini Mart at 2nd with JRoll based on less than 10 games."

MG, have you actually spoken to them about this, or are you, once again, PROJECTING your own opinion?

[awh]

Woah, sifl, I sort of expected that, but not this early.

They probably did it to give him another chance to catch on somewhere.

[Iceman]

From the last thread:

This is one of the funniest arguments on BL in a while. MG has railed against every aspect of Mini Mart as a player, and rightly so (though the complaints are pretty excessive at times). He brings nothing to the table. And now he's wondering why Galvis is getting trained at 2B INSTEAD of Mini-Mart?

I wholeheartedly disagree on the idea that Galvis won't get a pass from people. He would be replacing Mini-Mart- he doesn't have to really do much of anything to hit that low bar. And the guy can pick it defensively. If he does that, he'll be an improvement no matter what he does with the bat.

How can anyone think it's a mystery that Galvis is getting reps at 2B and Mini isn't? He's the better player!

[RedBurb]

With Willis gone, I think Savery has a really good shot at making the roster.

[Iceman]

Where are you guys seeing that Dontrelle was cut?

[Unikruk]

Doesn't Dontrelle's leaving nullify Jimmy's contract?

[Iceman]

Nevermind, just saw it on the sidebar.

[MG]

"MG, have you actually spoken to them about this, or are you, once again, PROJECTING your own opinion?"

It is what any rational person would say. Phils have may a scout or two who saw Mini Mart play a few amount at 2B in the minors who has influenced their opinion but ~10 games at the MLB isn't going to influence their opinion one away or another. C'mon.

[GBrettfan]

I feel bad for Dontrelle. He has always seemed an immensely likeable guy who has really struggled after his initial burst of success. It must be so frustrating - not that it is not something that happens to many other athletes, as well.

I can't really blame the Phillies, however - It's their job to put together the best staff they can.

As for Raul, I still wish him well, but I bet JW is absolutely right that the Yankees won't hesitate to cut him if he's not productive.

[MG]

No harm, no foul on Willis. Amaro took a risk but wisely structured the contract so that it wasn't guaranteed.

Savery has shown enough this spring so far that he deserves serious merit for a bullpen spot.

[RedBurb]

MG - Will Diekman (sp?) start the year off in LV? I know Dubee loves him.

[awh]

"It is what any rational person would say."

Once again, we disagree.

It's also entirely possible the the BASEBALL professionals who work for the Phillies feel they have a very good idea of what mini-mart can do.

It's what they get paid for, no?

[awh]

GBrett, my sympathy for Dontrelle is limited when I think about the fact that so far he's made $40,766,426 playing major league baseball.

[awh]

Iceman, good post.

Though I think MG will still disagree with us.

[MG]

"It's also entirely possible the the BASEBALL professionals who work for the Phillies feel they have a very good idea of what mini-mart can do"

After ~10 freaking games at the MLB level at 2nd? Absolutely not.

Based on his minor league numbers but more so some of their scouts who saw Mini-Mart play 2nd in the minors? Possibility.

[Iceman]

"It is what any rational person would say. Phils have may a scout or two who saw Mini Mart play a few amount at 2B in the minors who has influenced their opinion but ~10 games at the MLB isn't going to influence their opinion one away or another. C'mon."

He's terrible at every other position at which he offers versatility. It's safe to assume, no matter how limited his exposure, that he would also be awful at second base.

Meanwhile, Galvis has shown that he is already an MLB-caliber defender at SS and is already looking pretty good at 2B despite being in the midst of learning the position on the fly.

MG- you really want to see what Mini Mart offers at 2B? Really?

[clout]

Fatalotti: I don't think much of single season WAR and your post on Callaspo is a good example of why.

Callaspo's fWAR over the past 4 years is 3.6, 1.4, 2.3, 1.3. That 3.6 looks like an outlier to me, yet that's the only stat you use to make your point.

The other problem is that Callaspo isn't a SS. He's played only 1 game there since 08. And his career UZR at 2B is negative. The scouting reports on him as a prospect questioned his range at SS and 2B.

A far better player is Maicer Izturis. He's superior to Callaspo on defense, is a real SS and his OPS+ the past 3 years is about the same. Yet Izturis' fWAR last season was 2.0, making him, but your yardstick, a significantly lesser player.

I think WAR is a very useful stat in looking at the big picture of someone's career. But used the way you used it, I think it doesn't have much value.

[Arosie]

Well I'm happy that Dontrelle is cut would much rather see a younger arm fill out the bullpen. Also I think it'll be interesting to see who makes the club between Podsednik and Pierre. Both have had pretty good springs so far.

[awh]

MG, do you realize the logical contradiction of what you just posted?

As I posted on the previous thread, the Phils have seen mini-mart play with Rollins, albeit on a limited basis, and I think it's safe to say they scouted him extensively before they took him in the Rule 5 draft.

Do you think they know what they have in mini-mart yet, or not?

Still, this entire discussion started when you seemed to imply the Phillies' plan was to have Galvis start the season at 2B if Utley isn't ready.

My response to that was and is: You have no way of knowing that.

(That is not to say I disagree with you about his bat being ready. I disagree with your conjecture that it is logical to ass-u-me that this is what the Phillies are planning.)

[awh]

Arosie, I'm not happy or unhappy about Dontrelle.

I want the Phils to field the best team possible. If Dontrelle had made the cut, I'd be OK with that too.

[awh]

Here's a thought:

It has been widely speculated that the Phils moved Valdez to clear payroll rom for Qualls.

Assume for a minute that Willis was running neck-and-neck with the other LHRP in camp vying for the 2nd lefty spot, and they feel he's interchangeable with yonger, less expensive guys.

Was Willis released because they want to clear some 'potential' payroll because a trade is in the works for a UT IF?

[Mick O]

Dontrelle released, and Moyer pulled* before his start??! Can only mean one thing! Who's picking Cool Papa up from the airport??

* yes I know it was for leg stiffness. This is a joke.

[Andy]

Cool Papa was a center fielder and faster than greased lightening. Come up with a different name for Mr. Moyer.

[Scotch Man]

I have to give the Phils credit. I was wondering after getting 3 outs yesterday, if he was all of a sudden a front runner. I think it's obvious the club is higher on Savery and Diekman at this point. They're younger, cheaper, and most important probably better.

[RedBurb]

awh - No that's not it. The Phillies are a cheap team and don't want to pay for a utility infielder.

[Andy]

awh - If you believe Rube is actually going to trade for a UT, I have some alien shrunken heads from Area 67 (which is even more secret than area 51) in the trunk of my car (which is powered, incidently, by cold fusion).

[MG]

Iceman - I don't. I understand why the Phils are playing Galvis at 2nd. There's a decent chance he could better there defensively than Mini Mart with more range.

awh - The question was the MLB level. Yeah 10 games doesn't mean anything. I would gues the Phils are playing Galvis at 2nd because if they are going to get minimal offense out of that position if they play Mini=Mart/Galvis they are seeing if Galvis can give them a defensive upgrade.

[GTown_Dave]

Apparently Dontrelle was unaware that his contract wasn't guaranteed. For some reason I find that hilarious. Willis & his agent must love Dumb & Dumber.

[Unikruk]

"Hot Mama" Moyer?

[awh]

clout, interesting post.

I'll be waiting to see how Fatti responds.

The one comment I'll make about WAR is that it seems to me to be a useful stat, though I wish there was a universal method used to calculate it.

When Rally and Fangraphs arrive at radically different numbers for players it raises the question of how valuable the stat really is, and what it really means.

There's an interesting article on it here:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/29/1839730/are-fwar-and-rwar-on-different-scales

In short, with there being such wide disagreement on the value of individual players based on how the calculation is done, IMHO one needs to take any WAR number with a grain of salt.

[awh]

Andy, my favorite Cool Papa Bell story about his speed was told by Satchel Paige:

"Once he hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second."

[bay_area_phan]

"Was Willis released because they want to clear some 'potential' payroll because a trade is in the works for a UT IF?"

It's clear from your breakneck posting rate that you've got a lot of time on your hands this morning. It's also clear that all the free time has caused you to overthink this one. They took a flier on Willis to see if his stuff might play better in the bullpen & if he has harnessed his command enough to be a viable major league pitcher. They released him because the answer to one or both of these questions was no.

[GBrettfan]

from CSN.com:

The Phillies released left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on Friday morning.

Willis, 30, was attempting to make the switch from starting pitcher to reliever to make the Phillies roster but that attempt fell short and ended on Friday.

The Phillies hoped Willis would be able to be a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Last season, Willis limited lefties to a .127 average but during spring training, Willis gave up five runs in just 2.2 innings.

He also experienced some arm soreness but told trainers he felt OK, which seemed to bother pitching coach Rich Dubee.

“He had some discomfort but he told the trainers he felt OK today. That’s why he was out there,” Dubee said earlier in March. “We ask for honesty from our pitchers. If a guy comes in and says he’s ready to go, we take his word for it."

[awh]

bap, yep, slow morning.

[derekcarstairs]

Given that his health issues are not going away ever, Utley should not play one more inning in meaningless games than he has to.

If you must see Utley in action and you must see him now, I suggest you watch video from seasons past.

[Fatalotti]

Clout, I'll get to your response when I get home from work today. Good point, but I will say this quickly: WAR is a descriptive stat to me, and not a predictive stat.

And awh, you are becoming hard to read anymore. Not because you necessarily make bad arguments (you don't, generally), but because you are relentless, mocking, incendiary and sometimes, myopic. Heed your own advice, and relax.

[awh]

Fatti, the first three descriptors: Yep, I can be at times, and at times with good reason.

Myopic? You'll need to provide some evidence for me to agree to that.

[Todd]

Maybe he was on 'roids.