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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

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Just because I hate writing a post, only to find that a new thread has gone up while I was writing:

When I get to thinking of Jose Contreras's likely 2012 performance, the image that keeps popping into my head is Tom Gordon in his final year with the Phillies. Gordon showed up for spring training injured that year but, after a horrible start, he managed to get himself healthy enough to give us maybe 6 really solid weeks in a setup role. Then his injuries re-surfaced, he started getting lit up and, in early July, he went on the DL for the rest of the year. He ended up pitching 29 innings, with some really ugly numbers -- though for those 6 weeks, he was pretty effective.

That's about what I think we'll get from Contreras this year.

Did we ever find out why Lamar jumped ship?

Escaped? Or was set loose?

Bobby Abreu is all about the team and championships. For the most part, I liked him as a Phillie [ducking] and respect his ability. But, here's a guy on a team with a great shot to compete, who had a crap year, he's 37 y.o., and he's under contract to make like $9 million next year. I understand he wants to play and, he's in a contract year but, am I missing something? Shouldn't he be working his ass off for playing time, not looking to jump to a fictional destination where OF/ DHs coming off a season with 8 homers and a .717 OPS are guaranteed to be starters?

"I've never seen marginal jokes killed over thousands of repetitions like here."

You're missing the point. The repetition IS the joke.

Posted by: bay_area_phan

Yes, ***I'M*** missing the point.

I would take Abreu's empty stats and lack of winning ways right now over most of the bench and whomever will be playing left. Just pad the wall and make a bright orange extra warning track for him.

I neglected to say for less than $3 mil a year.

Abreu was a Hall of Very Good player in his prime. I wish we had a hitter of his caliber on our team this year.

Abreu was exactly the type of hitter the Phillies need now. Maybe not Abreu himself, but a guy who will work the count until the pitcher goes insane. A couple of guys like that in the lineup and pitchers break out in a cold sweat when they're going to face your team.

I know it's an extreme case, but Boston historically has a lot of this kind of hitter. And pitchers hate getting into games with them. They don't always win, and the umps even hate them, but there is some value to driving pitchers nuts.

NEPP, we do have a "hitter" of his caliber on the team. He plays right field. Granted he doesn't have the eye that Abreu has, but as a hitter, his numbers are comparable.

Pence isn't the hitter Abreu was and its not even close.

Abreu in his prime was a 143 OPS+ hitter (Age 24 - Age 30)

His raw numbers were .308 AVG/.416 OBP/.942 OPS

I love Pence but he's just not that guy. He's a 120 OPS+ guy on his career (Age 24-28) Even last year, his 138 OPS+ doesnt meet Bobby's average year. Pence just doesnt have his OBP skills...or speed for that matter.

I stand corrected

I just looked at their career numbers, but you are right, Bobby's numbers during his prime years are considerably better.

Abreu was a great player in his prime.

Abreu was a tremendous player in his prime. Indications are he's well-past his prime. Would you trade for him to start full-time here, now, even with the uncertainty in left field? He's not the on-base machine he was and, his power disappeared last year.

No, of course not. He's probably finished at this point.

He's still decent against RHP at least. He got murdered by LHP last year (.566 OPS)

Well aksmith I don't want to get you into trouble but you and I are in agreement.
Abreu was the kind of player we need now. Yukolis is another, a high OBP to drive the pitcher nuts and get on base.

Yes, neither of which who could really field their positions anymore. That sounds great, we need old and slow.

Youkilis is the prototype for this kind of player. Watching him bat makes my teeth hurt. I can only imagine what it does to the pitcher.

And yeah, Abreu is not the Abreu we would want at this point, as some have pointed out. Too bad. He clearly belongs in the hall of very good. He was never that guy to crash into the wall or dive for a ball, but his bat was a thing of beauty.

Werth, despite his year, was still 2d in MLB in Pitch/PA. Abreu was 3rd.

Off on a little tangent, but I look for a bounce back from Werth this year.

I predict Roy Oswalt signs with KC where he will eventually retire as king. Royalty is his destiny.

Marti Wolever is one of the "behind the scenes" guys who has been instrumental in the recent run of success. Plus, he is a gentleman who always has time to talk with the fans.

Congratulations on a promotion well-earned

It's 9:30 already. Where's Bonehead's daily MM post?

Nice to see Wolever get teh spot, I guess.

I'm not going to hazard a guess as to waht his influence was during the Ryan Howard/Cole Hamels draft - that's structly internal.

I do have 2 words to offer to any discussion about those drafts, and the drafts that brought the Phillies rollins and Utley:

Mike Arbuckle.

I wish the Phils had a young outfielder who saw a good amount of pitches and got on base at a decent clip...

Bobby Abreu age 23: 210 PA, .250/.329/.372, 3 HR, 7 SB, 87 OPS+

Dom Brown age 23: 210 PA, .245/.333/.391, 5 HR, 3 SB, 97 OPS+

So there's that.

The Astro's gave up on Abreu at that point, didn't they Jack?

Very wise decision on their part

The 'Stros also gave away Curt Schilling for nothing in 91. You gotta wonder if their late 90s run would have turned out differently with Schilling in the rotation and Abreu in RF.

Chris in VT: Well, they sort of gave up on him--they left him unprotected in the expansion draft. They didn't dump him for, say, Kevin Stocker.

That was the Rays, of course, who picked him in the expansion draft and then promptly traded him to the Phillies for Stocker.

It should be noted that the rules for the expansion draft were that 15 players from the entire organization could be protected.

So the Astros decided that Abreu wasn't one of the 15 players on their roster (or in the minors) they needed to protect--which seems a bad decision in retrospect, but also remember that the Astros were a playoff team at that point built around veterans. You could understand leaving a 24-year old OF who wasn't established yet unprotected. They certainly weren't going to leave Jeff Bagwell unprotected.

It's 35 players they could protect, not 15. plus, they didn't have to protect anyone from the last 2 drafts and high schoolers from '95. I looked it up on wikipedia

Jbird: Really? Hmm. I looked at Wikipedia too and it said the first round only 15 players on the roster could be protected. They could add 3 players after each round to be protected, so maybe the 35 was total? I only looked at the first round because that's when Abreu was picked.

Jack: wait, no. my mistake. you're right. The teams selected 35 players but other teams could only protect 15. my mistake

AWH- There is no denying that Mike Arbuckle was instrumental in the farm system's turn around. I did not mean to imply that Wolever should get all of the credit.

Considering Abreu was a top 3 prospect for the Astro's the year prior, it's pretty obvious they made a hasty decision on him based on a handful major league ABs. Sounds quite a bit like what many of the posters on this board are ready to do with a former #1 overall prospect.

Astros also had a starting outfield of Moises Alou, D. Bell and Carl Everett in '98, a solid 5 man rotation led by Johnson and Hampton, and Wagner in the pen on a team that won 102 games. Losing Abreu was bad for the longterm but, they were going to lose a quality player no matter what they did.

Sounds like a new game! Imaginary expansion teams coming in next year, '97 rules, who do you protect?

Apparently Oswalt's looking possibly to sign midseason. This makes me think even more that he's waiting for Blanton's spot to open up... either that or he's hoping one of the Rangers' pitchers gets eaten alive and is sent back to the bullpen. Funny that he won't take the job in Boston, but then again, neither would I.

Rizotti, Goosewurst and Overbeck 1/2/3.

Would expose Howard b/c his contract and injury, plus Utley b/c he's trending downward. We can easily replace them with youngsters.

Unikruk: Do contracts transfer or not? For instance, if we leave Howard unprotected, are we rid of his contract completely?

Assuming that is the case, I would protect: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Victorino, Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, Pence, Brown, Mayberry, Worley, Papelbon, Bastardo, Aumont, and Valle. I believe Trevor May is not on the 40-man. If he is, you can replace Valle with him.

I realize leaving Howard off is controversial. Whatever.

Jack: you leaving howard off of your list is the opposite of controversal.

Jack - In this case it would be a no brainer to leave Howard off the protected list. The likelihood is that nobody would pick up that contract, and the Phillies would get a free spot for someone else to be protected. They keep Howard and someone else they don't want to lose.

So, where's the new team going to be? Gitmo?

Interesting hypothetical.

I think I agree with Jack's list, except I'd protect Polanco over Papelbon. I imagine the expansion draft would leave lots of pretty good middle relievers being exposed across the league - if you're a team building from nothing, you're probably not interested in a $50 million closer. Also, Polanco is still a top 10 third baseman, accounting for defense.

BB: I have run businesses and I can tell you everyone is replaceable. That said, I'd rather we didn't have to.
These are Howard's trend lines:
22 63 .288 .356 .567
58 149 .313 .425 .659
47 136 .268 .392 .584
48 146 .251 .339 .543
45 141 .279 .360 .571
31 108 .276 .353 .505
33 116 .253 .346 .488

I like Howard and he could get better but only if someone can coach him to see the ball better. He needs to get pitch IQ because pitchers have his number.

Also for th e first time in his career there is a marked difference between day time and night time probably attributable to vision issues.


I would leave Howard off, too, though I would self-define as a mild supporter.

Much more controversial is the decision to expose Kendrick.

Unikruk: It is? Why would leaving our 6th starter making a good amount of money exposed be controversial?

More likely attributable to SSS issues.

I thought the position of my muscular hydrostat to the side of my buccal cavity was pretty clear.

Hilarious quote from the Rocky Mtn News in late '92:

"Since their inception, the Florida Marlins have had the big-spender image, and the Colorado Rockies the budget-shopper. Nothing that happened in the expansion draft will change that. Taking a projected 25-man roster for each team and projecting what the salaries will be in 1993, the Marlins come in with twice as big a payroll as the Rockies."

Colorado's payroll was looking to be in the neighborhood of $4-5 million. Such simpler times.

If someone told you about an internet thread, where the header was about Marti Wolever, and the comments spiraled into a discussion about Bobby Abreu, would you even think twice about betting the mortgage that it was on the Beerleaguer domain?

I don't know that you'd need to protect Howard. Depends on where the team was located. If it was a 3rd NY team, you would expect them to have cash and want to make a splash. If it was a San Antonio or Portland team, that'd be different. My guess is an expansion team (even one based in New York) expects to be very bad for a minimum of 3-5 years while still having good revenues because of the novelty factor and thus wouldn't really want to add a 32 year old $25m per 1b with a bum wheel just for the heck of it.

I do think you protect May over Valle though.

Yo, new thread

Does a 4.40 FIP swingman making $3.5 million provide surplus value? How much surplus value do you expect for 6 cost-controlled years of a 9-10 K/9, 4-5 BB/9 reliever (Aumont)?

I would protect Aumont over Kendrick, but I think it's debatable - hence, the controversy.

I love this post very much. I’ll definitely be back again. Hope that I can study more helpful posts then. Will probably be sharing your wisdom with all of my associates!

It looks scrumptious. My photo taking light indoors seems to have deserted me too - Autumn, clearly.
Beautiful!!!

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