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Sunday, February 19, 2012

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Is KK's extension a prelusde to a trade so that the team that takes him has cost certainty?

I was wondering the same thing.

Somethings brewing, methinks.

Why?

Kendrick is controllable and attractive for some clubs. His cost will rise if he's traded to a team with an opening in the rotation.

The Phils are also trying to unload payroll since they're close to the cap.

Ironically, this deal hurts us for luxury tax purposes if its not the prelude to another move...

AAV is now $3.75 M instead of $3.585 M.

Be interesting to see if he's flipped so they can sign Oswalt.

Does KK and someone else get you a young Of'der who can play LF, thus freeing Mayberry to play 1b?

Iread the note on the Phils being the "mystery team" in the Burnett thing, But who is gonna take Blanton? I beleive KK's deal was re-worked because he is a more attractable trade commodity than Blanton.

Great if someone takes him, bad news if they don't. I'm curious to see how this plays out.

Also, for Piniewro to make this team, a starter has to be dealt.

Sorry for the typo.

What would KK and Dom Brown net us...

What if they threw in Trevor May...

Yea I heard that we were the mystery team for A.J Burnett too. Why? Did anybody see this guy pitch recently? He stinks.

You got Doc,Lee,Cole,Worley and Tubs. In left you got Ibanez back. Plus a back up infielder for Kendrick and some salary room. That is all.

"freeing Mayberry to play 1b?"

Why would we want our best fielding leftfielder to play first base?

Hugh, exactly.

IMHO Mayberry would be one of the best [fielding] LF in MLB if he's allowed to play there a whole season. The guy can play CF in a pinch. Why would you stick a guy like that at 1B.

The other possibility is not trading for a LF as DomPatrone suggests, but rather signing someone like Dmitri Young to play 1B.

RG~ I believe Raul is going to the Yanks.
Hugh~ I beleive RFD is a nice player, albeit not yet an everyday one. He should develop into one though.

Why doesn't Derrek Lee's name ever come up?

Ugh, no thanks on Dmitri!

AWH~ Why would the Phils want 38-old Dimitri Young? I know he worked out for them, but they already have Young in Nix.

I would only be concerned if this turns out to be another empty flip for payroll reasons a la Valdez.

At least this time it would free up a significant chunk of money, unlike Valdez's case, but it would cut the rotation down to six decent potential starters (assuming Willis is in the 'pen for good) when recent years have shown that seven is the minimum needed over a long season and take away one of the more promising bullpen options. (I also had irrational high hopes for KK's season, but I know that it is BL taboo to suggest that he has turned the corner.)

Then again, it could also be a case of ditching a mediocre player after his career year on the assumption that he has peaked, which also isn't a bad bet.

Nothing to see hear, folks. This is just preparation for next year, when Blanton will be gone and KK will be the regular fifth starter; this way, Rube avoids going to arbitration with Kendrick again and conceivably saves some money (if Kendrick excels as a spot starter or injury fill-in this year).

I guess if money is so tight that the team is willing to take a dip of almost .100 in OPS and 24 OPS+ to save $.5 mill on a fairly prominent position, i.e. backup to an injury-prone SS and third string to two further injury-prone spots at 2B and 3B, maybe I should welcome an empty salary dump for seven times that, if that's what Kendrick's situation turns out to be.

AT: You're right, that's quite likely as well.

I keep seeing speculation that our Phils may be maneuvering to obtain another bat.
Logistically, I don't see it.

Like it or not, 4 of the 5 bench spots are already spoken for with guaranteed contracts to Schneider, Nix, Wiggington, and Thome. The fifth spot will have to be Martinez or some other utility IF who can play SS.
Yes, an additional player will be needed until Howard's return in May, but that is only a temporary need.

This deal isn't about a trade. It does lock in KK as replacing Hamels in the rotation next season. Which should go swimmingly.

I don't understand this unless it's just to keep his possible arb for next year down, then I only find it mildly perplexing and wasteful. Hopefully he provides them some solid 5th starter innings that some like Pineiro or Hyatt could not do for much less.

I tend to agree with AT and Jack that it's more about cost certainty going forward than it is a trade. Not that they wouldn't deal him if a good offer came around.

I hope he stays so we can watch Jack gloat when KK gets crushed and see him disappear from the board when KK does well, as happened all season long last year.

Even if KK had a bad year this season, he'd almost be guaranteed a raise in arb from pure service time.

This is a team friendly contract in that regard, that tendering KK next year would certainly cost you more money than this contract deal.

And for a undefined swingman type like KK, it gives him guaranteed money without the fear of getting hurt or pitching poorly enough to risk not making a team in 2013.

right, lorecore. but there's a good argument that Kendrick shouldn't have been tendered this off-season, so the idea that he's worth a 2-year deal at a slightly higher AAV is equally arguable.

betonline(offshore) and Atlantis Casino(reno, nv) are the first places to offer MLB over/unders.

PHI: 95.5 (highest in MLB)
ATL: 85.5
MIA: 82.5
WSH: 81.5
NYM: 74.5

I'll take the over on the Nats.

Does anyone if Piniero has an opt out in his deal if he's not on the major league team by a certain date?

According to Murphy he does:

with veteran reclamation projects Joel Piniero and Dave Bush the insurance (at least until June 1, when they can exercise opt outs that now come standard in veteran minor league deals if they are not on the active roster).

thank you, i assumed that was the case

AJ Burnett? No, thanks. That one ended well.

KK is a good veteran insurance policy if Blanton fails to return to form or if Worley suffers a sophomore crash. You can never have enough pitching(trite but true).

Does this even matter until late July?

"AWH~ Why would the Phils want 38-old Dimitri Young? I know he worked out for them, but they already have Young in Nix."


DomP, they might want Young for 2 reasons: One, he's better at 1B than Nix, and two, he can hit LHP and Nix cannot.

The Phils took a look at Young, so they obviously felt that they might have a need. If they didn't sign him it's because they a) don't have payroll room, b) don't want to meet his contact demands (i.e.MLB deal) c) think he's not an upgrade, d) think he's shot and cannot play anymore.

Dragon, true, but KK was already under contract for 2012.

Dom, here are their splits:


Young, career vs. LHP: .286/.337/.451, 1456 PA

Nix, career vs. LHP: .181/.235/.271, 216 PA


There's a huge gap in OPS vs. LHP. Young, at least, can hit lefties, though he's been better against RHP during his career.

Nix offers more versatility because he can play the OF better, though who knows how good Nix realy is at 1B?

BB, yes, but perhaps they wanted cost certainty for 2013.

I stand by my question at the top of the thread. I think there may be something brewing.

AHW~ Agreed. I'd look at D. Lee instead. But what do you do wuth him once Howard returns?

If they're really looking @ 1b options, it could be because they're not real certain that Howard will return by the end of May (nor should thay be).

But I really think there's something else coming. Monty never said he wouldn't go over the cap, just that he didn't want to do 2 years in a row.

This could be a prelude... to something further down the line, like nearer the trade deadline. Stand pat now, see what goes down with the offense, stay in the mix, and if a deal needs to happen midseason, KK becomes slightly more valuable then. (As would Blanton if he reverts to career norms.)

One of the best things that Amaro did this offseason was bring in guys to minor league deals who legitimately can help out the big league club.

As for KK's deal, it is not really that puzzling. Amaro has shown a strong preference for cost certainty & with Blanton/Hamels as free agents this offseason he decided to lock up KK for another year.

Really that surprising that Amaro gave an extra year on a contract that is perplexing? Been one of the hallmark's of his tenure as a GM starting with the Moyer deal.

Amaro clearly thinks that either KK is worth the money to keep around, or he's worth that much to any team who would trade for him.

I think that's a lot of money for a swing guy, but a good swing guy, which KK certainly was last season, is worth almost that much. It's not a massive overpay. And if Blanton crashes and burns, it's two years of an okay starter who has been durable and healthy at reasonable money.

I don't really see how this affects signing or not signing Hamels long term. If any contracts will affect that, they're certainly a lot bigger than KK's.

So ESPN just reported that, on an offseason fishing trip to the Amazon(!), Roy Halladay apparently saved some guy's life after he had been attacked by an anaconda? Did I completely miss those reports? It kind of sounds like a big deal, right?

Call Me Ishmael - I think you missed those the first time around. If I recall correctly, the guy had escaped the anaconda but was now stranded on shore, sans clothes. Halladay - and I think Carpenter was w/him, no? plus a fishing guide? - helped the guy by getting his clothes & his boat for him.

* *
David Hale has relatively detailed reports over at his blog (see sidebar here, R side) for those who are craving baseball news.

Doc threw him a Patriots Super Bowl XLVI Champs t-shirt. Caught the black.

I think the versatility to switch between bullpen and rotation many times during a season is a valuable tool, even with slightly-below league average performance.

Kendrick's 2011 game log shows 11 role changes: 8 relief appearances, 1 start, 3 relief appearances, 1 start, 2 relief appearances, 3 starts, 1 relief appearance, 2 starts, 1 relief appearance, 4 starts, 2 relief appearances, 4 starts, 2 relief appearances.

Aside from the versatility, starting pitchers who can deliver ~90-95 ERA+ and stay off the DL go for much more than 2/$7.5M as free agents.

Just this year: Capuano (2/10), Chen (2/9), Harang (2/12), Maholm (1/4.75), Saunders (1/6). Last year's free agent starters included Correia (2/8), De La Rosa (3/32), and Westbrook (2/16.5). All of these players have comparable track records to Kendrick and make more money annually.

Amaro may have a preference for 2-year FA deals, but Kendrick was already under contract for this year and has more than 1 arb. year left after that.

This is a great deal if you're Kyle Kendrick. You just theoretically became set for life if you're smart. Sure, its not a ton of money but he could bomb out completely this year and still have millions in the bank.

Good for him considering the road he's had. Hard to believe he came up in 2007.

I remember we talked about this story but now I am picturing Jon Voight, Ice Cube, J Lo and Doc all trying to catch an anaconda.

Flip Nix back to Wash for bag of balls.

and a fungo bat.

A fungo bat is pushing it.

Dom, DLee might not be amenable to a minor league deal. Young might not either, but maybe, in the end, he'd take one with the hope of sticking with some team.

What would you do with either one of them?

Well, with Lee you'd probably have to keep him around all year because he'd have a MLB deal. Either that or trade him and have to eat some money or get little or nothing in return.

OTOH, with Young, if you can sign him to a MiL deal and he makes the team and keep 1B warm for Howard, because he'd be on a smaller deal, you might actually be able to move him for a usable bullpen piece or a middle-of-the-road prospect if he actually can hit to his career norms. Everybody wins in that case: The Phils get a couple of months of average production at 1B and don't have rush Howard, and Young rebuild his value to an MLB team and maybe extends his career for a couple of years.

If he would take a MiL deal I'd do it.

According to Buster Olney, they tried to flip Blanton for Abreu and to then do Abreu for Burnett.

They had a formal press conference to announce the signing. Dubee was there, Amaro, Manuel. They're not trading him. Or if they do that would be weird.

Bobby: That's part of Amaro's plan. Fly Kendrick's family in to announce the big signing, then wish him well in Pittsubrgh or wherever.

psst, Japan is calling.....

A big press conference for KK? Guess not much else to do until the rest of the team reports this week.

Dmitri young isn't even worth the cost to make his fatass a jersey, let alone a minor league deal.

KK is the Rodney Dangerfield of BL.
Sure, he's not likely to be an all-star, but he has provided needed pitching depth before and hopefully will again.

This is money spent to keep out of arbitration. Security against his cost rising for the team, and security against things going wrong for Kyle.
And as some have speculated, it improves his profile as a bargaining chip for Rube.

lorecore, Young has apparently lost 70 lbs.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7451869/dmitri-young-making-comeback


Check out the pic at the bottom of the article.

Also, here's a pic of him fielding:

http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/jan/28/healthy-transformation-for-dmitri-young/


He ain't the same Dmitri anymore, and if he can still hit, WTF not sign him to a MiL deal?

KK got a big pay day...Rhymes sorta

Okay, so now he isn't morbidly obese and on the verge of death, he is simply fat and over the hill. Give him a five year deal.

Rauuuuuuuuuuul to the Yankees.

Class act, so I'm glad he found a home.

dmirti on a milb deal is a good idea the same way signing any person with mlb experience is a good idea. So basically, signing adam eaton to a milb deal is the equivalent.

The Phils had to salary dump an infielder who made around 0.5% of team payroll just to afford Chad Qualls, no way its worth just handing out thousands of dollars on milb deals for the fun of it.

Whats the absolute best case scenario of signing Dmitri Young? That he's almost as good as wigginton or thome? Where is the upside in that since we already have both of them.

I'm glad Raul is saying he'll be better for the Yanks than he was for the Phils. Awesome. You know, now that Rauuuold is off the Phils and running his yap I'd like to go ahead and accuse him of juicing in '09.

One thing about the KK contract:

His salary is reduced from 3.585MM in 2012 to 3.0MM, so the Phillies save a few buxk this season.

I wonder if that had anything to do with the Phils motivation? However, as others have pointed out, for lux-cap purposes, the AAV is actually higher.

The Ibanez signing seems to be nearly universally unpopular in the Bronx (or wherever actual Yankees fans live).

I thought most of them lived in the Fourth Circle.

AWH~ I just saw how they the split on KK's contract. Makes sense from a $$ point of view. With the $$ they're getiing from the Rocks for Wiggy, I've got them @ 169.25 million, not including the renewed contracts for Bastardo, RFD, Brown, & Herndon.

So yeah, this was a cap move more than anything else, unless somthing else is going on we don't know anything about.

Also, I'm happy for Raul. Class act. He played his heart out for the 3 years he was here.

AWH~ Just saw your post answering mine on Young form yesterday. I guess I would sign Young on a MILB deal. Chances are he take. Player-wise he's not Lee, but he's a better fit $$-wise.

The problem they have is too many bodies and not enough spaces. If Young is signed and is with the big club, is Thome still here? That sort of thing.

Right now they have Doc, Cliff, Cole, Blanton, Worley, and KK on the big club, with Pinero & Bush as potentials in case of injuries, but can't both of them opt out?

I believe Blanton goes on the DL at some point, but the only way to keep everyone is to make a move.

Same thing woth the bench. Pierre is more than likely here, but they have no back-up SS right now, save Martinez. Again who stays, goes?

DomP, having too many players in camp is a better problem to have than too few.

After seeing Kenny Powers last nite, they should throw him a bone as well. The more the better.

Baker - that makes more sense, figured there had to be a 3rd team involved with any interest we had with Burnett.

This extension probably pushes that envelope even harder for Ruby to do some creative things to get Kentucky Joe out if town.

One thing about Amaro is he is pretty damn aggressive about getting what he wants. I'll bet his resume' for success with the ladies is quite impressive as well.

"DomP, having too many players in camp is a better problem to have than too few."

Not if you'e just picking random names out of a hat, which is pretty much what we'd be doing with Dmitri Young. Just like a 5-game series is a crapshoot, so is spring training performance. The more fringe major league players you invite to camp, the greater the odds that an unworthy one will end up getting hot & winning a roster spot, at the expense of someone who is actually better.

Big news out of Mets camp, John Niese got a nose job.

2012- $3M, 2013- $4.5M...seems fair, especially if KK steps into the 5th spot in the rotation with a potential Blanton deal once he proves he's healthy (IF he even is healthy).


I remember we talked about this story but now I am picturing Jon Voight, Ice Cube, J Lo and Doc all trying to catch an anaconda.

Posted by: Rauls grandpa | Sunday, February 19, 2012 at 07:53 PM

Oddly enough, I am picturing, Doc, Jon Voight, Burt Reynolds, and Ned Beatty. With Hunter Pence playing a banjo.

phargo, seconded on Pence, cruel though it may be.

Who has the higher OPS next year, Nix or Raul?

I think i'd bet Ibanez, assuming both get at least a few hundred PAs

bap, it would be one thing to pooh pooh DYoung if he didn't have an MLB track record.

The negative is that he hasn't played in a couple of years.

The positives are that he's lost a ton of weight and has apparently still got the bat speed, according to the linked articles I posted.

My desire to see him in camp is that I'm not sold on Wiggy, Nix and Thome, the latter of whom nobody knows if he can even play 1B anymore.

You, lorecore and the rest can excuse me for wanting more options.

lorecore, agree on Nix and Raul, though Raul is gona play half his games in a bandbox - especially for LHH.

The good news is that Coe Hamels isn't putting a deadline on extension talks.

Sounds like he'll really try to work out a deal:

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/

% chance of getting Oswalt back?>>

I think Viceroy may have to take a 7-8 mill deal now..I think a risk needs to be taken. Sign Roy for 7.5 mill first, and hope Blanton becomes good enough to trade him and pay 3 mill of his salary, i.e 7.5+3= 10.5 mill which is just over what Oswalt was asking for to begin with. Plus you may get a B-level prospect in the deal.


This is just so tough to read. RAJ, you are cold blooded.

Ryan Madson's $8.5MM commitment with the Reds is spread out over three budgets, explains ESPN's Buster Olney: "$2MM during the 2012 season, $2MM in deferred salary on Nov. 1, 2012 -- which is the start of the 2013 budget -- and another $2MM in deferred salary, without interest, on Nov. 1, 2013, at the outset of the 2014 fiscal year. In the middle of that, they have a $2.5MM buyout on an $11 million option for 2013."  On the topic of his one-year deal, Madson told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon, "I take it as motivation to show people again, to prove that it's real.  It's unfortunate it's that way but I'm not complaining. I'm very happy. I'm very privileged to have this opportunity, and I just want to run with it and show people that I will be OK."

lorecore - Maybe if Ibanez has to face almost primarily RHP pitching and favorable matchups where he does face guys with a plus fastball.

You have to play defense though and one reason I will always prefer the NL to the AL. That and you never have 4+ hour games in the NL unless the game goes at least 11-12 innings.

Young's bat speed is so good nobody wants him.

grandpa, Madson is a big boy. He tried to walk the walk, and his agent tried to pimp his deal publicly, and he got left at the altar.

He got offered 3/30 and effectively turned it down by not accepting and having his agent counter at 4/44. Then, "someone" leaked the proposed deal to the media, and that is a definite "NO-NO" where RAJ is concerned.

Madson/Boras either misplayed or overplayed their hand, or both.

There were only one or two teams willing to pay big money for closers, and FLA focused on Bell because Madson was too expensive for them.

That really leaves the Phillies as the only team willing to pay Madson his dream money, and, by Boras' counteroffer, he pushed the dollar equation to a level that made the Phillies take a look at Papelbon.

Boras was a more than a bit foolish because he approached it as though Madson was the only game in town. At more than 3 years and 10MM per, he wasn't.

If he thought Papelbon was a lock to re-sign with Boston, then with all his resources he got his intelligence wrong.

Madson/Boras could have had 3/30, and if he had countered at 3/3 the Phils might have agreed. But by going for the 4th year, he himself pushed the Phils and Papelbon together.

I like Madson, and hopefuly he's successful against everyone except the Phillies and gets a big payday (Mo Rivera says he's probably retiring, so maybe he can get a job in NY?).

But I don't feel sorry for him. He and his agent oveplayed their hand.....and thus is life.

Should say: "...if he had countere at 3/36..."

Rememberthephitans has a great piece up on Brian Schneider over at The Good Phight:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/2/20/2811727/2012-phillies-player-preview-brian-schneider#storyjump


Blanton is a *ock blocker. That's the feeling i get when i read most of the blogs. Its like dam he is in the way of us signing this or trading for him. He is just in the way and takes up space. Its a shame if we didnt have his contract i wonder what moves the Phils would have or could have made.

awh: Dmitri Young is 38, has missed the last 3 full seasons, only had 180 PAs the year before that, and hasn't played any substantial 1st base in 5 seasons. Wigginton, Nix & Thome could all go 0 for spring training and they're still going to make the opening day roster because: (1) they all have guaranteed 7-figure salaries; (2) Wigginton plays 3rd base and Nix plays CF, whereas Young doesn't play any defensive position; and (3) they all hit well enough in 2011 as to make them far better bets for 2012 than a guy who hasn't had a professional PA since 2008.

There's certainly some merit to throwing a bunch of sh*t against the wall & seeing what sticks. But there's nowhere left on the wall for Dmitri Young to stick. Besides, even if Dmitri Young got red-hot & had a great spring training, why would anyone trust spring training stats over the last 4 full seasons of data -- all of which tell us that Wigginton, Nix & Thome are better bets for 2012 than Dmitri Young? All the Phillies would be doing by inviting Young to ST is setting themselves up to be seduced into doing something stupid.

Sorry, I phrased that wrong. I meant it in the way they chose to fill the remainder of the payroll. If only there could have been a way to still sign Maddog for $5 here to set-up one more time. I know it is a dream but it makes me almost vomit to think that money is tied up in Fats, Nix and posse.

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