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Thursday, February 16, 2012


There's no way Bastardo was going to continue being as dominant as he was through mid-season. Nobody can sustain those numbers long term. But if he can put up a sub-3 era he'll be a very useful player.

Mayberry? I don't know what to think. If the late season surge was real, he'd be one of the best outfielders in baseball. That would be a nice little surprise- Werth 2.0.

as an aside, I'm very pleased the Phillies are in on Soler. I really hope they sign him. It'd go along way towards making up for the Papelbon-Madson draft compensation mismanagement fiasco.

Does anyone have a link to any analysis done on how well these projections hold up? I'm sure the modelers tweak their projections every year, but how reliable have they been? It's pretty easy to take a good player and say they will do about the same in the next year, but how often do they really catch the break out players?

All I've got to say is... John Mayberry, you're going to be the best last pick I've ever had in Fantasy Baseball.

Call me foolish, but I'm all in right now that he's going to kill it, especially if he's been working hard this offseason. The new stance was just a baby with those numbers, and if he's been using his time wisely after having seen what it's really capable of, we should be in for a nice ride with its coming-of-age.

Bastardo is going to be one of the key guys to watch in spring training especially since Contreras still has no timetable for when he still starting throwing off the mound let alone actually pitch in Spring Training games.

"There's no way Bastardo was going to continue being as dominant as he was through mid-season. Nobody can sustain those numbers long term."

JBird, I disagree.

There is one guy, and he's headed to the HOF.

His name is Mariano Rivera.

Repost from last thread:

DPat - Both of those teams went on to win the World Series though. I don't know how you can say they had no business beating the Phils. They obviously did what they had to do to win, and beat other very good teams in the process. Give credit where credit is due.

The problem with your line of thinking regarding the "offensive adjustments" is that you contradict yourself. You say that they didn't do much outside of those first two games, but the fact remains that their offense was better than each of their opponents. If "offensive adjustments" need to be made, what exactly are they? Over a 5/6 game span they outscored the Cardinals and the Giants. You can't teach situational hitting. You can't teach how to dink and dunk on Cliff Lee. The only thing you can do is load up and hope for the best in the postseason. The Phils have done this for 5 straight years now.

The formula is just to get to the darn postseason. No amount of adjustments can be made to guarantee victory in the postseason. That's why you have David Freese winning a WS MVP or Cody Ross taking Doc deep twice.

What are the Marcels? It don't mean a thing if it ain't done by a monkey...

I'm very bearish on Mayberry. I think he will be more like the Mayberry from the past few years in the minors as opposed to the Mayberry we saw during the 2nd half last year.

And the expectations from the fans on what Mayberry's potential is also warped from the tear he went on. The tools are there and I'm cheering for him to do really well, I just hope he doesn't fall flat on his face.

Can we leave that DPat/RK stuff to the last thread. Please?!

Bed Beard - haha, I will. I'm sick of rehashing the same arguments over and over too.

If Bastardo continues his performance from last year, it will make the back end of the bullpen really tough to face.

Mayberry's numbers will in-large part depend on how many ABs he sees RHP.

Still don't understand all of this concern about him. He'll give you moderate powers numbers, is one of the faster guys on this team right now with their projected lineup, and if he is in LF he will be one of the better defenders in the NL out there with a decent arm.

He would be more a 'tweener' if he didn't have the speed and defensive ability he does. He's miscast in CF but he's a very solid LF and probably above average in RF.

He's also dirt cheap. I imagine the Phils could move him in a heartbeat to a dozen teams and get something useful in return if they so wanted.

One of the things I hope that Cholly doesn't do is playing Mayberry a bunch at 1B. It negates his defensive value in LF.

Bed Beard -- I hear ya. And, if/when the Phils get to the playoffs this year, let's all "pitch-in" (pun intended) for a pallet of "secret sauce". Or a heroic burst of genius from Charlie Manual.

WS or bust!!!!!

I agree with the pundits that Bastardo will regress. the question is "how much?".

Mayberry is, IMO, the real 'wild card' in the Phillies' 2012 season (along with the Howard uncertainty).

1) Will he regress and be the guy who put up a .682 OPS through June 1st? He'll be a bench player/platoon option the rest of his career if he does.

2) Will he be the guy who put up the .854 OPS for the whole season? That was the 15th highest OPS among all MLB OF with at least 275 PA last season.

3) Will he be the guy that put up a .785 OPS vs. RHP in 2011?

4) Will he be the guy that put up a .965 OPS the second half of the season?

Predition Day is far off, but if he's the guy in question #1 the Phils will struggle to win the division.

If he's the guy in questions #2 and 3 the Phils will be fine until Howard returns and then build a lead.

If he's the guy in question #4 the Phils will have a much easier time of it, as he'll be one of the top 5 -6 OF in all of MLB.

Also, the lineup 3 through 6 may look like this even after Howard returns:


It splits up the L/R hitters and could prove to be a dangerous gauntlet for opposing pitchers.

Even if the did this,


if RFD continues to mash lefties and hit RHP with a .750+ OPS it may not matter much.

Steve in CT: Does anyone have a link to any analysis done on how well these projections hold up?

Yes I too would like to see that; there is a great Science fiction series Asimov's Foundation Series based on predicting the future through scientific analysis of psychology.

Boy if all this works I have a few stock portfolios I would like to subject this analytics package to.

It is a real shame that Davey Lopes isn't here because there are a couple of younger guys on this roster who are likely to get their share of PT this year (Mini Mart, Mayberry) who really could benefit from Lopes' tutoring on SB.

Mayberry is a guy I could see stealing 15-20 SBs if he gets enough PT. Mini Mart has the speed he just doesn't really have a clue & was a poor baserunner in the minors. Another guy who could easy steal at least 8-10 SBs and probably more depending upon his PT & OBP.

Lopes departure was again a case of management being "penny wise and pound foolish". Best to my recollection they just refused to meet his salary demands.
He and his stopwatch were sensational.

These projection systems are what they are: predictions. They are different from your seat-of-the-pants Beerleaguer predictions only in the sense that they remove the subjective element and rely solely on a formula or system to make the predictions. But they are still just predictions. You can run "past-performance" data from now until opening day and it still won't shed any light on what to expect from Mayberry this year.

I don't remember seeing anything that tests how well they foresee a "breakout" season, but here is a comparison of how accurate the various systems were in general in 2011:

There are short descriptions of each in the above, but for reference, here is a summary of the various systems:

"Mayberry's numbers will in-large part depend on how many ABs he sees RHP."

MG, this is true. As I posted above he had a .785 OPS vs. RHP in 176 PA. This ranked him 15th among all RHB OF with at least 175 PA vs RHP. Among all MLB OF he drops to 40th, as a bunch of SW and LHB jump into the pool.

He had 120 PA vs. LHP and put up a .953 OPS. This ranked him 10th among all RHB OF vs. LHP. Among all OF he ranks 12th, as both Vic and Schwisher bump him down a couple of notches.

IMO if he can continue to put those kinds of numbers up against RHP he - and the Phillies - will be in great shape.

Does anyone have the ability to break down Mayberry's splits in the 2nd half last season? The above splits are full-season numbers and include his subpar first half.

His OPS splits are obviously much higher in the 2nd half, but I'm wondering about the difference.

"I don't remember seeing anything that tests how well they foresee a "breakout" season."

Reminds me of a big topic of discussion last ST. Someone did a study which found that, while most ST numbers are completely meaningless, the one exception is slugging pct. According to the study, when a player posts a ST slugging pct. that is .100 pts above his career average, there is a strong chance that he will follow up that ST with a break-out regular season.

In last year's ST, this topic of discussion came up with regard to Ben Francisco, who posted big slugging numbers in ST. Lo and behold, when the regular season came around, he proceeded to post the best numbers of . . . er, well, never mind.

bap, LOL.

awh, the best I can do is by the opposing starting pitcher's handedness, so it'll be in the ballpark but no closer...

For the full year:
.825 in the entire game when the starter was RHP (164 PAs)
.889 when the starter was LHP (132 PAs)

1st half:
.712 with RHP starter (59)
.652 with LHP starter (58)

2nd half:
.887 with RHP starter (105)
1.073 with LHP starter (74)

Bleacher Report says the Phillies have the top rotation going into the 2012 season. Agreed?

I agree ... Cardinals and Braves will be up there in the NL, too.

I'd say the braves bullpen is better than their rotation, though still quite good. I also wouldn't count out the marlins, if a lot goes right, plus i expect a very sold season from buerhle moving to the NL.

Reds could also field a pretty good pitching staff.

Still, with bullpen and rotation in account, i think the phils are still tops overall in the NL and probably in all of baseball.

quickly touch on last thread:

predicting playoff outcomes ahead of time is the crapshoot, not the actual team who wins. The Cardinals played better than the Phillies in 5 games, and they won.

We should 100% blame the phillies for playing like dogshit in back to back post season series, but the blame shouldnt translate into blowing the team up - they dont go hand in hand. RK(and others) try to take things away from a series and apply it to a full season which is his fault. 1 AB of Benfran NLDS > Pence's entire NLDS is a true statement. BenFran > Pence in a full season is not.

Preseason opinions are just that...opinions. If prediction opinions meant that what was written is destined to become truth, then the New Orleans Saints or the Green Bay Packers would be hoisting another Super Bowl Championship banner in their stadiums.

Knowing that predictions are not always right, here is mine.

If Cholly plays RFD a lot, RFD will have a very good season; however, I predict that Cholly will play Mayberry stupidly and very little, causing his numbers to go south.

Bastardo, I see doing as good or better than last year, unless Cholly overuses him early (most likely) and wears out Bastardo's arm.

Vanimal will regress. I can't see him duplicating last year's numbers.

Stutes will regress. I think we saw the league catching up with Stutes. He may not even be on the team 25 man roster at the end of August.

I'm more optimistic about Bastardo than the other sophmores. I don't think he challenges Eckersly for 4/5th of the year as the best relief season in history like he did last year, but I really think he'll be among the better setup men in the league.

I dunno. If Manny uses Bastardo wisely, he should be quite effective this year. Relievers are always hard to predict, so I'll take a pass for him.

As for Junior, I suspect he'll do worse than last year but still quite a bit better than his median prediction. We might end up seeing a platoon with him and Brown, which would be good for his stats.

Red~ You're right, you can't teach situatonal hitting. And they lost to teams that went on to win it all. But the Phils were the better team in both cases. Sometimes the best team doesn't always win. All you gotta do is look at the 1960 Series between the Yanks and Pirates. Stuff happens. I undertsand that.

If you've been following my posts, and I know that people don't always agree, you'd have to somewhat admit that they're not as good offensively as they used to be. We all know that there are a number of reasons for that.

Yes they'll win a ton of games. No doubt. They're clearly still the best team in the East if not the league. But offensively, they're not the '08-'09 teams that went to the WS. That does concearn me. Amaro hasn't done anything to change the starting 8 that goes out on the field every day. Based on his comments at the end of the Cards series, he seemed to be pretty upset. We all love the guys that are here. But I'd certainly love to see them be more consistant offensively. Our pitchers deserve that.

DPatrone, yes the 2011 team (full season) was slightly worse offensively, relative to the league, than the 2008 team.

But in 2008 they scored 17.4% more than they allowed.

In 2009, while they led the league in scoring, they only scored 15.5% more than they allowed.

In 2011 (again, full season), they scored 34.6% more than they allowed.

That seems like cause for celebration, not concern.

Actually, I want to disagree with the projectors on any great downward tick from the pitchers. They all came pretty close to their minor league numbers. I can see them regressing somewhat, but they all had similar levels of WHIP and BB and K and so on.

Mayberry's a totally different story. Unless there is some kind of mythical "switch" out there, he's not gonna be the 2011 John Junior on a regular and continuing basis.

Bastardo was excellent in the minors and should be a quality 8th inning lefty reliever. No doubt he will regress some (he was putting up 'best all time' type numbers until Sept).

Mayberry I think will be overmatched. I predict a season like Ibanez or Francisco last year at the plate. However, Mayberry should have more speed and better defense and I'd be really interested seeing him as a potential CF where the offensive numbers can be considerably lower. A platoon with Nix may not be all that bad as both have decent power.

I think they just need to be slow with the expectations of Mayberry. Handle him like they handled werth. Werth wasn't just immediatley thrown in the five hole and expected to produce. He was slowly moved up from the lower part of the order, as he showed production. This is good for the phillies and good for mayberry, as it won't put too much pressure on him too early.

Like everyone, I'm not sure what to expect from Mayberry. If I had to make a prediction, I'd predict he'll regress to something akin to his minor league numbers. I do, however, think he has earned the right to be the presumptive LF starter -- or, at the very least, he will earn that right with a strong spring training. It is not like we would be missing out on some huge upside by foregoing a Ty Wigginton/Laynce Nix platoon.

Andy, the mythical "switch" exists. Ask Jose Bautista.

Conservative estimate on Mayberry:

.298 AVG/.397 OBP/.592 SLG, 48 HR, 143 RBI

NEPP: only a .298 avg?

***only a .298 avg?***

We have to be realistic...he's going to see more RHP this year and he might struggle a bit.

I agree with NEPP's numbers with 30 SB added. This guy has been swinging a bat before he could walk and now he can run.

I'll say this about Mayberry:

If, for the entire 2012 season, he does match the 2nd half numbers schmenkman posted:

"2nd half:
_.887 with RHP starter (105)
1.073 with LHP starter (74)"

he'll almost be the second coming of Bautista, and damn fun to watch all season.

That's why I think it's so intriguing.

There's a wide range of opinion on the board:

NEPP: All Star

bap: scrub

The good news is we'll have a few games in ST to take a look at him before Prediction Day and clout Day. :)

I don't know if this has been discussed, but FanGraphs has been doing a series of the best of each pitch:

Fastball - incl. Papelbon, and explains the methodology:

Curve - incl. Halladay:

Changeup - incl. Hamels, Madson:


Actually, NEPP, Mayberry did do this in the 2nd half:


Your OBP prediction may be a little high, and your SLG a little low. :)

The lovefest with Herndon continues:

He's nothing more than a fringe bullpen guy who greatest value is that he is cost-controlled & gives them some depth in the bullpen.

awh: I expressed no opinion on Mayberry -- let alone use the word "scrub." All I said was that, "if I had to make a prediction," I would default to his career norms. That is not a "prediction." It is simply a recognition that, when you have no way of knowing what to expect from a guy, his career norms are the most probable outcome.

Calling Herndon "Pretty good", and saying "still, it is not a certainty that Herndon will even make the Major League squad coming out of Spring Training" in a player profile isn't exactly a "lovefest".

NEPP - You do understand that if Johnnie gets 600 ABs you're talking like 99 singles, 24 doubles and 6 triples with those 48 dingers.

I just think you have to raise that sluggin average a whole lot cause he'll get a lot more XBHs with his speed.

Howdy awh! Many thanks for the welcome back; it's good to see you again. Freakishly warm winter up here. It made me uneasy.

(Good to see all you other BLers, too, except one. Just kidding.)

These predictions don't seem especially sophisticated. It's plain old "reversion to the mean", which is a safer bet than "he suddenly got a whole lot better". If you predict them all as reversion to the mean, you will be right more often than wrong.

Oops, as I see b_a_p pretty much just said.

That said, I think Mayberry may berry well have turned a corner. I am optimistic that he will not regress. This opinion is greatly influenced by my desire to see him succeed, even if he is a modelizer.

Bastardo? I am too chicken to hazard a guess.

Bed Beard - "Lovefest" no better he's no better than Stutes except for the % GB. If you look at this numbers the past 2 years they scream fringe reliever.

I guess I don't see the upside to him. He's a reliever who has a xFIP slightly over ~4 who pitches to contact.

per that fangraphs article: Hamels' changeup caused an opposing batter to miss 46% of their swings - the highest percentage in all baseball last year.

If RAJ has set his sights on Soler, isn't his track record pretty clear that he gets his man, though it may cost him?

bap, I'm calling BL BS on you.

Sounded like a prediction to me. :)

On a scale of 1 to 10, my confidence meter for the 4 players in jw's thread rates as follows:

Bastardo: 8. He's no fluke. He has electric stuff and was great in the minors. He won't put up the kind of silly-good numbers that he posted for most of last year, but he'll be damn good.

Mayberry: 6. I sorta, kinda think he may have turned a corner, but it's awfully hard to ignore 3,000 minor league PAs of mediocrity.

Worley: 4. I have nothing terribly specific to base this on. I just base it on 30+ years of seeing Phillies flash-in-the-pan rookie pitchers who come crashing back to earth in Year 2.

Stutes: 3. Like his stuff; don't like his wildness or extreme fly ball tendencies. And his peripherals say he was pretty lucky to have the success that he did.

lorecore, that's a pretty sick S & M ratio.

awh: If it was a prediction, it was in the clout mold of predictions: one with so many layers of caveats that no one will ever be able to prove it wrong.

My real prediction/guess is that he'll be pretty good -- say 450 to 500 PAs, with 20 homeruns, a .260-ish average, and a .775 OPS. The career numbers say I'm wrong. But I am an unrelenting optimist.

I think Bastardo has the stuff and can be the real deal. Assuming from a mental perspective he doesnt blow up and he has shown that he can be gritty. Im with agreement on bayphan with Mayberry. I like Mayberry and i root for the kid. However, i have always consider his bat suspect. For the longest i have said he will be a 2nd stringer .250 BA with some pop. I do believe he can be a MLB player just not a starter per say. I was pleasantly surprised that he had a decent year and hope he builds on that. His defense skill are up to MLB standards so he is good on that front.

On the backup catcher front, this is who the Mariners just signed:

"The Rays signed catcher Chris Gimenez to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training, according to Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune (Twitter link). Gimenez elected free agency earlier in the week, not long after the Mariners designated him for assignment.

The Mariners non-tendered Gimenez in December, re-signing him to a Major League deal soon afterwards. The 29-year-old has a .171/.279/.272 line in 267 career plate appearances from 2009-11. He also has experience at first base and the corner outfield positions."

per mlbtr.

My point: There are not a lot of good backup catchers available. OK, let me rephrase that: There might not be any available.

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