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Friday, February 17, 2012


As long as Ibanez signs a major league deal, the Phils nab a draft pick, correct?

I'll miss Raul. Easy guy to root for.

I'm really going to miss Raul's .289 OBP. No, seriously, he had a worse OBP than Wilson Valdez.

Jack -- Depends if you view players as people or just as machines where the input is money and the output are stats. I understand why GMs primarily build teams based on the latter view, but as fans, I hope there's always room to appreciate and value the former. Raul acted with class and accountability. I'll miss that about him.

If your Pittsburgh would you want AJ for 2 yrs 13mil total. Or Blanton 1 yr, and let's say 5mil (Phils kick in 3.5mil)?

Which in your opinion would be the better deal for them? If you were Rueben would you have done that or would you hold out and see if he can prove he's healthy? then try and move him or would you just keep him?

lefty: I believe so, apparently the Phils and Ibanez had a 'handshake' type arrangement that he would decline arbritration if offered.

Burnett at one point in time at least, had the perception of being more than just an innings eaters, whereas blanton never did. His upside potential going into the season is "serviceable 5th starter". don't see anyone in MLB paying for that, right now.

Well said, Lefty, and I agree with you. Raoul gave it his all and is a gracious man. I'll miss him, too, and wish him well - even if he's a Yankee. (That was a little hard to say.)

Absolutely, gotta respect that one of the older guy's on the team takes his conditioning more seriously then most of the younger guys out there. Raul didn't do anything to lose some bat speed and he was never a good fielder. But he always gave effort. I watched him dive and miss plenty of times, but at least he went for it.

It's hard to believe that the DH market is so dry they're making room for Ibanez. True, most of his negative value was in his defense, but his hitting was relly, really bad last year. When you're paying a guy to only hit, a line like .245/.289/.415 is just not pretty.

I thought "innings eater" was the whole reason the Phils liked Blanton, whether that was a good term for his career or not.

Bed Beard: That's fine. My point was that i think most of baseball would be bearish on blanton even reaching the level of an adequate innings eater whereas Burnett likely has some type of "bounce back" potential in him to be better than average. So i can see why a team would pay 13 million for burnett before paying even 5m for blanton. Plus i believe burnett still has 2, if not three years on his deal, so it averages out pretty nicely. If the phillies had no joe blanton, and no younger decent pitchers, i wouldn't have even been opposed to them going for Burnett at that price. His worst case scenario is serviceable whereas as Blanton's best case scenario is serviceable.

Raoul was either hot or he was not, usually in long stretches. His fielding was an adventure, but he was always a gentleman with his comments to the press. I wish him well in New York.

Ibanez hit .256/.307/.440 vs RHP last year and .277/.366/.455 the year before. He could be a good part-time DH / back up OF on a 1-year deal. He out-hit Johnny Damon as far as RHP go over that time period, I think.

I wouldn't be all that excited were I a Yankees fan, and I'm not sure Ibanez betters those numbers next year, but his overall numbers are significantly hurt by ~140 PA against LHP that he never should have had.

Ibanez = Washed Up.

Ibanez never really got hot though last year except for except for a brief stretch in May & his cold streaks were downright frosty.

He's done being a MLB player. Just can't catch up to fastballs anymore unless he gets in a fastball count & really cheats. If he got behind in the count last year, it was over.

Never really was the same player after the sports hernia surgery.

Ibanez will prolly hit 45 home runs with that short porch in right. Just like he did in CBP.

Congrats to a class act and good guy. While it may not show in his full season numbers, there were stretches over the last two years when Raul absolutely carried the Phils offense. Also, you can never forget his monster first half in the 2009 season.

I will say this about Ibanez - he was a guy that did everything he could to squeeze every once of talent he had & probably extended his career another 4-5 years with his offseason training regimen.

I lost count, but I think he outhomered Ben Francisco last year.

Do the Yanks plan on giving Ibanez anything more than 250 PA? If he can repeat his 2011 splits, he's not "done" in a limited MLB role. They have Jones to DH from the right side, and some aging stars to DH on days off.

We saw Ibanez at the tail end of his career, and while always a class act, he had his ups and downs on the field over the past 3 years.

But he had an interesting decade after a slow start to his career. This is where he ranks among ALL players in baseball history in their 30s (i.e. their age 30 through age 39 seasons):

- 7th in doubles
- 8th in RBIs

That's primarily due to having the 11th most PAs, but impressive nevertheless.

I'll never forget him turning into Barry Bonds the first half of '09 only to become rather underwhelming for the rest of his tenure. He still can hang in the bigs though and his final line was pretty good. I'll miss him on the Phils but I won't miss him much.

I liked Ibanez as a person, as a player, not so much. Amaro overpaid for what he got out of him over the length of his contract.

The true test if we miss Ibanez or not - outside of the general respect he deserves from his effort/attitude - is how well Laynce Nix performs as a platoon/4th OF lefty or the phils this year. If Ibanez is benefitting from a less demanding DH position and more isolated ABs vs RHP while Nix is whiffing away and taking playing time from Mayberry, then the memories of Ibanez will be much rosier.

Am I understanding this correctly? The Yankees are in effect paying the Pirates $7 million to take Burnett off their hands?

No, the Yanks send $20M to the Pirates to help pay the total $33M owed to him over the next two seasons. Pirates owe $5M in 2012 and $8M in 2013.

If Burnett trade goes as reported (for Diego Moreno and Low-A outfielder Exicardo Cayones with Yanks paying $20M of $33M owed), it's not a bad deal for the Pirates.

RHP Moreno is a Top 10 Pirates prospect, but that's not saying much. His numbers are good, but he's been old for every level. He throws high octane gas (96 mph) but he's 25 and has barely got his feet wet in Trip A. Ceiling would be as a setup man. A better bet is useful middle reliever.

Cayones is a big bonus baby out of Venezuela who is a line-drive, good-eye player whose defense limits him to LF, where you don't get a whole lot of those types. He's just 20, but didn't do well in an 11-game promotion to the NY-Penn League last season. I'd call him the longshot in the deal.

Burnett is old, gives up too many HRs and walks too many BUT he also gives you 195 IP a season and an ERA in the 4.50-5.00 range which makes him better than a league-average 5th starter. I'm pretty sure he'll pitch more innings and win more games than Blanton this season and deliver an ERA around 4.50 since he's out of the AL and Pirates ballpark is more friendly to pitchers.

Ah, missed that somehow. Thanks lorecore.

Burnett xFIP last season: 3.86

Miss Ibanez? Hardly. However is in LF who will be an upgrade defensively and on the basepaths. The only thing the Phils will miss will be his power and even his then his 20 HRs look a lot less impressive considering it took 535 ABs to get them.

Mayberry/Nix combo will improve on that number if you give them 535 ABs.

Burnett has played in a bandbox the last few years but, then again, his road numbers are even worse than his home numbers. In fact, his road numbers in each of the last 2 years have been truly hideous. And, when a guy is 35 and has posted 5+ ERAs 2 years in a row, it's a pretty ominous trend.

It's not a terrible trade for Pittsburgh; I just don't really understand why a rebuilding team would want Burnett. He does log a lot of innings, but they're crappy innings. Even with all the salary the Yankees took on, the Pirates are still paying too much for him.

Raul Ibanez is the ultimate pro. Despite inconsistency last year, the man drove in 84 runs and hit 20 HRs. He is no longer a middle of the order slugger, but think of him as a #8 hitter for the Yankees. In that role, not having to play the field, he would still be an asset. He would not have to face left handers which he did less of in 2011 than as a regular in previous seasons. He is a winning-type ballplayer, unlike Bobby Abreau who was more about his stats than the team. As soon as the Phils ditched him, they started winning division titles.

"He is a winning-type ballplayer, unlike Bobby Abreau who was more about his stats than the team. As soon as the Phils ditched him, they started winning division titles."

I assume there is a BL consensus on this point, right?

The Pirates wanted Burnett for a number of reasons. He's fairly durable, which will make him the only pitcher in the rotation who is. He still has good stuff, even though his control comes and goes, and they'll expect him to do better in the NL for at least a season. The Pirates have underspent their major league budget for a couple years because no free agent will sign here. Among those who have refused to take deals this season (reported to be double the $5M they'll pay Burnett) are Roy Oswalt and Derek Lee. They likely backloaded the deal with an eye toward moving him to a contender at some point this year or next, if the guy performs. The joke of it is that Burnett probably comes in as the ace of the staff and I doubt he can fill that role. Might help sell some tickets and, I doubt they're truly hurt by the salary this year. Whether $8 million next year hurts them remains to be seen.

Here is the funny part, I predict he bats even worse as a DH and gets waived or traded away by the All-Star break. I like the dude but he has been done for a little while already. He is going to be an even worse pitch guesser once he sits on the bench and shoots the sh8t between at-bats. Guess I gotta pick a new name. Hopefully I can use Soler Power.

I will hate Burnett eternally for beating us in 2009. He had to, of course, have one of his great games in Game 2...otherwise, he was terrible the entire 2nd half that year.


Where is Moreno considered a top 10 prospect in the Pirates system? I couldnt find his name on any list at all.

Moreno was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and was not selected, pretty much explains his prospect status: none.

The Phils had a deal in place yesterday to trade Blanton to the Pirates for three prospects but Entenmanns and Tastykakes petitioned the league to block it.

Burnett won't help sell any tickets. Pirates' starting staff though is looking so decrepit that they needed to bring in another veteran.

Still don't understand why they just didn't keep Paul Maholm originally. He's a better pitcher than Burnett and he would have made a hell a lot less (1 yr/$4.75M with a $6.5M club option for '13).

Feel for Pirates' fans. Got excited last season only to see their team do their annual mid season swoon which is usually after the trade deadline.

I hope they get a few breaks this year (Alvarez isn't a total bust, Bedard stays healthy enough to give them ~25 GS, and Burnett has a rebound year) so they finally break the .500 barrier.

Should be a bit better than they were last year but it is really hard seeing them crack .500. Good season would be 77-78 wins.

Wakefield retired:

One of my favorite players of the past 20 years. Loved watching him see pitch at Fenway in the summer because you never knew when he was going to have his mojo working and have a no-hitter through 4 or 5 IP.

Probably no other pitcher I can remember who would so often go through the first 9-10 hitters without a hit when he had his knuckleball working.

It also hilarious seeing him close in '99 after Gordon flamed out as the closer early & went on the DL (foreshadowing). He closed most of the summer for that team and he was actually pretty damn effective.

Wakefield should have tried for a deal with Colorado. It would have been hilarious to see Moyer and Wakefield in the same rotation.

Is Dickey the only Knuckleballer left standing right now?

Jayson Stark's Spring Preview:

Top Story Lines, Best/Worst Signings, Most/Least Improved, Players To Watch

Papelbon makes both the "Worst Free-Agent Signing" & "Three Most Outrageous Contracts" listings, & I agree on both counts. What a pointless waste.

DH Phils: First, anyone who can't spell Abreu correctly is a moron.

Second, the meme that Abreu was a clubhouse cancer and his departure is why they won has been so embraced by the moronocracy despite no factual evidence, that it is silly to even try to debate it.

I only get involved in responding to that nonsense when someone with a triple digit IQ spouts it because they should know better.

GTown: have no clue why any team would want Papelbon. Another sharp observation by you.

BAP: ERA can sometimes be misleading. Burnett's xFIP past 2 seasons is 4.49 (2010) and 3.86 (2011) so he must've been doing something right.

"He is a winning-type ballplayer, unlike Bobby Abreau who was more about his stats than the team. As soon as the Phils ditched him, they started winning division titles."

I assume there is a BL consensus on this point, right?

Posted by: DH Phils
DH Phils, agree with clout -- if there is BL consensus I assume it's that the above idea is crap.

Braunecker might get blackballed like Boras if he keeps this up.

clout: xFIP is generally a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. But there are some pitchers out there for whom that isn't true; Matt Cain springs immediately to mind. Burnett's career xFIP is .32 lower than his career ERA, and the difference is much greater than that over the last 2 seasons. So, while I think it's fair to say that he hasn't pitched quite as badly as his ERA over the last 2 years, he also hasn't pitched as well as his xFIP.

OTOH, he did have an almost impossibly high 17% homerun/fly ball ratio last year. That seems pretty fluky and will almost surely go down next year.

Besides the pile of magic beans the Phils got and the considerable amount of cash they moved, they spent the money they saved on Abreu's contract in large part by signing Eaton and taking on Garcia's contract.

Anyone who thinks that trade helped the Phils win is a pretty much an idiot. Coincidence does not equality causality.

Well the Phils signed Eaton and his eventual abysmal performance in the first half of 2008 led to the trade for Blanton and a WFC. Coincidence, I think not.

Happy Pitchers and Catchers Beerleaguers!

Yo, new thread

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