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Monday, January 09, 2012

Comments

I'd rather have Madson back at 1 year $4M if that's the case, but I do think Wood would (hahaha get it?) make a nice addition to the bullpen. Strikeout arms are always nice to have in relief.

GM Carson - Madson won't take $4M and wants to close. He'll still get the opportunity and significantly more money on a 1-year deal.

I would love to have Wood here but $4M is out of their price range because it severly curtails their ability to make any in-season moves.

Why I have a strong 'gut' feeling that Lidge ultimately ends up back here on a $~1M base with moderate incentive upside potential in another 2 weeks. No team is going to give Lidge a deal with a base of $2-3M given the health issues the past few years.

Fire Ruben

It certainly seems like Lidge is the lowest-hanging fruit at this point.

CArson & MG, if they don't being in Wood (too much $$) and Contreras is delayed, they may make the decision to hand the 8th inning to Bastardo as they did last season - before his elbow acted up.

IMO as healthy Bastardo gives you everything Wood gives you anyway - especially if he can pitch the way he did last season, or close to it. If Bastardo is "40% worse" than last season he's as good as Wood was (based on ERA, 25% worse based on ERA+), so if Antonio is healthy and looks good when P & C'c report they may not sign anyone else and just go with


Papelbon
Bastardo
Stutes
Willis
Kendrick/Blanton (loser of #5 competition)
Herndon
Schwimer/De Fratus/Savery/Aumont/Diekman


until the Big Truck is healthy.

Chooch and the Bull:

"The votes are in: catcher Carlos Ruiz and former left fielder Greg “The Bull” Luzinski will be the final two Phillies players featured in the Phillies mural, set to be unveiled next summer. The eight-story, 3,750 square-foot mural will be located on a building at the base of the Walnut Street Bridge. The mural was designed by David McShane, but Phillies fans were invited to submit votes online for one more player to be included; there was such a flood of votes (10,000+!) that the Mural Arts crew decided to include two top picks!"

http://www.uwishunu.com/2012/01/fans-select-carlos-ruiz-and-greg-luzinski-as-the-final-greats-for-the-phillies-mural/

Eh, I'd rather see one of the young guys get the spot over Lidge. Does remind me too much of the JC Romero signing last offseason.

Lidge on a 1 year deal around $1M with incentives would be a GREAT signing.

How is it that Bowker did not make the Phillies Mural? Travesty!

The Phillies all these young guys with good arms and decent potential... I say go with youth and if we need to shore up the bullpen at midseason, do it then, when relievers shouldn't really cost that much. The starters tend to go deep into games anyway.

Danys Baez is still available.

I'd like to see De Fratus win a bullpen spot at the start of the season and Aumont win another spot by September. Along with Papelbon, Bastardo, possibly Contreras, and Kendrick, the Phils' bullpen should be strong come playoff time.

I think the Willis experiment will fail, if for no other reason, because Charlie won't use him as a pure LOOGY. Willis will end up facing more righties than lefties, and he will bomb.

If De Fratus and Aumont perform, though, the Phils have enough remaining in-house candidates to fill out the rest of the bullpen adequately.

Ok so Teahen is owed 5.5 mil this year. Would Rueben and Alex consider trading Teahen's 5.5 for Polly's 6.25 with 1 mil buyout next year??

derek, personally, I don't care who wins a spot in the 'pen as long as they're effective.

If they can afford to sign Wood and he's effective I'm all for it.

If Big Truck makes it back and can get guys out I'll be happy.

I don't have a dog in the fight.

Just get people out.

While I have fantasies that RAJ will pull a trade and land some young 3b or something, I think going with current bullpen/young guys may be the way to go, and maybe eyeing a bullpen guy at the deadline is the way to go.

Let me try to be as diplomatic as possible. Adding Teahen would be like adding a canker sore.

Trading Polanco for Teahen would make as much sense as trading a '97 Saturn station wagon with questionable front suspension but it runs for something from the seventies on cinder blocks in front of a shack in Tennessee.

pb, interesting idea except that even in 2011 Polanco was miles better than Teahen.

He's no better a hitter than Polanco, and may be worse, and is definitely a worse fielder.

i.e. what Andy said much more effectively.

Like many others, I am concerned about the back end of the bullpen. But part of me still thinks that last bullpen spot should be left open for one of the younger guys. To be sure, there is a significant chance that any or all of them could flop. On the other hand, if we perpetually bring in pricey veterans on the theory that the younger guys are inexperienced and unproven, then those younger guys will perpetually remain inexperienced & unproven. We spent two entire seasons holding open roster spots for David Herndon and Michael Martinez, neither of whom had any business being in the major leagues. Aumont, DeFratus, and Schwimer could all probably handle themselves at least as well as David Herndon did in 2010, and all have far more upside.

Besides, if they all flop, it's not particularly hard to find bullpen help in mid-season. And if payroll is close to maxed out, I'd rather put some money aside for mid-season acquisitions. It might turn out that one or more of the young guys are just fine, but that mid-season help is needed in other areas.

BAP - It is always tough to acquire bullpen help at the trading deadline & the price is usually inflated in terms of the prospects it takes to make the deal.

If they can sign Lidge on a 1-yr deal at limited dollars, they absolutely should do it.

MG: You've gone on at great length about how Contreras can't be counted on because of his health issues. I am struggling to see how Lidge is any different.

If anything, I'd rather put my money on Contreras. At least he can throw strikes.

I have said a couple threads back that I don't want Lidge here, nor do I particularly care if Contreras pitches here or not. because he'll never pitch the entire season without DL stints, especially w/ more innings pitched in a set-up role. I really would hope that two young guys crack the bullpen staff because I don't think Contreras will be an asset either. He's a major league below-average reliever. 4.54 lifetime ERA and, oh yeah, he's 39

I meant to say LIDGE would not make it thru season w/o DL stints

Robby: Give me a break. Using Contreras's 4.54 career ERA to support your argument is like saying that the New Orleans Saints have no chance at the Super Bowl because they have a career winning percentage of .431.

WE CANNOT KNOW THE PHILLIES BUDGET! So, claims to the contrary are just stupid, made by imbeciles and pond scum.

“Our payroll is well past where we want to be after signing Jimmy [Rollins] -- that’s a fact,” Ruben Amaro revealed last week. “It’s going to be right around or about where we finished last year. We’re in a dangerous area.”

WHAT!?!?!

yea, i'd rather put brian schneider at third before mark teahen.

BAP-- How about Contreras since 2009? 201 IP 99 ER= ERA of 4.50.. What else do I need to tell you? He's average at best- and old

3.23 as a reliever since 2009 (78 IP)
1 HR allowed
1.28 WHIP
8.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

I don't know, I think that's pretty good.

Robby: Allow me to suggest an absolutely crazy idea. How about we use the stats of Contreras as a reliever -- a role in which he has excelled for two straight years?

It's not like I'm enormously confident in Contreras. He's old. He's seriously injured. Who knows if he can make it back? But I AM an enormous fan of intellectual honesty & using Contreras's mediocre stats as a starter to pursue the argument that he's a below average reliever is one of the most intentionally dishonest arguments in the history of Beerleaguer.

Robby, you realize that he switched to relief pitching very late in 2009 and seemed to have become a solid one of those, when healthy. There is reason to believe that he is still a solid reliever, when healthy.
There is little reason to believe he's healthy enough to last a season, though.
There is reason to continue to try to use him since the Phils are on the hook for this year's salary and they have some ready as they are ever going to be options at AAA***.


*** Who are not named Zagurski or Mathieson.

I expect no more acquisitions this offseason. If Phils are still in the mix come July (which we all expect they will), look for a major big trade deadline acquisition for either a big bat or bullpen difference-maker, whichever is needed more.

"We spent two entire seasons holding open roster spots for David Herndon and Michael Martinez, neither of whom had any business being in the major leagues."


bap, I agree on Martinez, but as bad as Herndon has been at times, he has pitched 109 innings the last 2 years with an ERA+ of 105, with a 95 in 2010 and 117 in 2011.

He a good back end/mopup guy, who's young and cost-controlled.

awh - It's part of the BL narrative. Yes, Martinez was awful. I wanted to give him a chance, but he simply is not a major leaguer for more than a couple of day callup at best. But Herndon has had stretches where he's actually been very good. They're interspersed with time that he's not very good. But he has turned out to be exactly what you said: young, adequate and cost controlled.

Bonehead, the big mid-season acquisition will be.....


Ryan Howard,

the same way Chase Utley was one of the mid-season additions las season.

They won't make any moves for a bat until they see how he comes back.

If he's healthy, the lineup (as recommended to Charlie by awh) would be as follows:

Vic S
Utley L
RFD R
Howie L
Pence R
JRoll S
Chooch R
Polly R


BTW, the above doesn't appear to be a lineup that's too "lefty heavy".

awh: Herndon's fine for what he is. My only point was that he was no more ready for the big leagues in 2010 than Schwimer, Aumont & DeFratus are right now. So, if the Phillies held open a bullpen spot for Herndon in 2010, why would they be reluctant to do the same in 2012 for 3 rookie pitchers with better stuff & better minor league numbers than Herndon ever had?

"My only point was that he was no more ready for the big leagues in 2010 than Schwimer, Aumont & DeFratus are right now."


Aha, on that we agree.

awh, I am drawing a blank on "RFD", other than rural free delivery. I assume this is supposed to be Mayberry?

I'd prefer the cheap potential of upside in the likes of Schwimer, Aumont & DeFratus than the certain "hope they're healthy and better than we expect" ceilings of both Lidge and Contreras, to be honest.

Signing Lidge just seems like a bad idea. If he proves to be shot, do we really think that Cholly/RAJ would part with him, or is it more likely that they just keep giving him chance after chance, until we see a repeat of 2010, albeit in lower leverage situations?

aladou, you must be fairly new here.

"RFD" is indeed Mayberry's B*L nickname.

It often amazes me how little some posters know about players outside of the Phillies.

Beyond the fact that Teahen is a chronic failure in terms of his projected value over the years, he cannot play 3B. His career UZR at the position is -35.3. That makes him among the worst in baseball.

Yeah but his name isnt Polly and he's "new/different/shiny" or some crap like that.

I'd rather activate Michael Jack than bring in Teahen to play 3rd.

Any HOF Predictions?


I expect Larkin to get in just barely, Morris to jump into the 60% range along with Bagwell and that's it. Its a really weak HOF class this year.

"The Rangers could end up with a lights-out, late-inning mixture of Madson, Mike Adams and Joe Nathan"

Nothing says lights out in January like a 37yr old coming off Tommy John surgery after giving up 24 ER in only 48 appearances sandwiched around DL trips last season, after missing all of 2010.

2nd year back from TJ is usually far closer to a player's former ability than the 1st. Of course, you already know this but are ignoring that. Also, in such a bullpen, Nathan is likely just a setup guy or even 7th inning guy.

They're going to pay Nathan $7 million to be a 7th inning guy? Maybe a setup guy but for that price I think the expectation is that he will be the closer.

Congrats to Larkin. I would have liked to see Raines & McGriff get in too, but oh well.

Well I guess it would depend on what Madson would sign for in this scenario - but $7.5M/yr for Nathan would make me think he is expected to close.

I would expect Nathan to start off the year closing but if they brought in Madson, he'd likely push Nathan out at some point. Remember, no one ever expected Madson's stock to fall like this so when Nathan was signed, it was as their "cheap" closer option.

Re: Larkin/HOF

I think that every vote for Larkin is a vote for Rollins ten years from now. Thoughts?

Larkin>>Rollins

I'd say every vote for Larkin is around .6 votes for Rollins.

Barry was a good fielder, but I'd take J-Roll's glove over his.

On offense, there's no comparison. Larkin is one of the best ever at SS.

Larkin's offensive abilities far outweight Rollins' defensive advantage.

Thus, Larkin is a deserving HoFer while Jimmy will have a nice plaque on the brick wall in CF.

In terms of counting stats, it's a close call between Rollins & Larkin. Rollins will finish with better homerun and SB #'s while being very close or better in doubles, rbi's and runs. In the Ratios Rollins will be close in Avg. and Slg. It's really the OBP that sets Larkin apart from Rollins. It's almost 50 pts higher. On the flip side, Rollins has a much higher dWar than Larkin and as they are shortstops, that's no small thing.

Congrats to Larkin. He was a guy who never really got his due because of Ripken and then the 'golden age of SS' in the that started in the mid-90s with Jeter/ARod/Nomar/Tejada.

IN order for Jimmy to have even a shot at the HOF, he needs to play another 4 - 5 years and get another 500 hits.

The average non-pitcher HOF player has 2313 hits, 395 2B, 106 3B, 202 HR, and .301/.374/.459, and that includes the dead-ball era.

I suspect, however, that the BA/OBP/SLG are lower for SS (I didn't do a sort), but Jimmy will probably have to get to at least the average number of hits that current HOF have in order to have a shot.

The GG's and the MVP will ceratinly help, though.

Rollins is the 2nd best shortstop of his generation. . . that's partly through attrition (A-Rod's a 3b, Garciaparra & Tejada flamed out)

Through Age 32:

Barry Larkin: 120 OPS+
Jimmy Rollins: 95 OPS+


You have to remember that Larkin's final years in his late 30s drag down his career averages. It wasnt even close in their respective primes.

Sorry, that should read "97 OPS+" for Jimmy.

"...Jeter/ARod/Nomar/Tejada."

MG, and the last three guys on the list are either proven or suspected PED users.

And Jimmy is as pure as the blowing snow. Its completely no suspicious that he went from hitting 12-14 HRs a year to hitting 25-30 HRs in his peak.

EVERYONE is suspect in this era...as sad as that seems. I could completely see how someone looking at Jimmy's numbers would get a bit suspicious.

NEPP: I just think the voters really like counting stats and in that regard Jimmy is going to be right up there with a lot of other hall of fame shortstops and is one of the best power-speed combos at the position ever. If he can get 30 homeruns and 27 more sb's he'll be the only (potential)hof shortstop with 200 hr's and 400 sb's.

I think Jimmy will be sitting on the Hall of Very Good bench right next to Alan Trammell at some point. If Tramm can't get in, I dont see Jimmy making it either.

Tramm got a whopping 36.8% this year...his 11th year of eligibility.

NEPP: part of Trammel's problem is he played in Detroit. Lou Whitiker got like 3 votes and he should have done much, much better.

Trammell is one of the top comparisons for Rollins on baseball reference too.

If Jimmy were a Yankee, he'd have a better shot. I dont see that being a Phillie really helps him all that much to be honest.

WAR through age 32:

Larkin 48.8
Rollins 43.8

If 1) Rollins stays productive, and 2) acceptance of WAR continues among voters, he will have a shot.

Staying productive will of course also help his traditional stats, and his best argument there may turn out to be Hits, if he can hang on long enough.

Hits through age 32:

Larkin 1,476, finished with 2,340
Biggio 1,680, finished with 3,060
Rollins 1,866
Jeter 2,150

Rollins should get to 2,500, and if he does that, he may hang on long enough to try for 3,000.

He will need to average 142/year in the 8 years through age 40.

Long shot, no doubt, but a good-fielding shortstop with 3,000 hits is a shoo-in.

Larkin gets a pass because he was hurt alot but when he was healthy, he was an elite player for a long time. Jimmy has racked up his WAR by basically being healthy and being a starter since his Age 22 season. Jimmy has Dwight Evans syndrome basically.

aladou: I doubt Jimmy stays productive long enough to sniff 3k. He'll probably avg. 150 for 3-4 more years.

Jimmy needs to go to Jeter's leg strengthing and conditioning guy so he can finally stay healthy for a full season. If he can do that and stay productive into his late 30s, he's got a shot on longevity if nothing else. If he's done by Age 35, I just dont see it happening. He'll be Tim Raines to Derek Jeter's Rickey Henderson.

awh: you have Mayberry batting 3rd?

NEPP: Jimmy's doing yoga now, remember?

Weitzel: Lidge is not low hanging fruit. More like rotting on the ground. This is one apple we don't need to have a bite of.

Does anyone remember around 2000 when Larkin was traded to the Mets at the deadline but they couldn't work out an extension and he stayed on the Reds? I remember this happening but I don't recall the details. As a Larkin fan I was so relieved when he stayed.

By the end of Rollins' new, four-year contract, I think he could have these career totals:
@2,500 hits,
475+ doubles,
115 triples,
230 HRs, and
450+ SBs.

With those numbers, Rollins might be a little light for the HOF. If he is able to hang on for another two-three years beyond his current contract and be productive, I think he makes it.

Rollins has been relatively healthy throughout his career, and, when healthy, his performance has been consistent (other than his MVP year). Rollins needs continued good health until age 40 to make it.

It's a longshot.

Bring me the Woodman!

In the favor of James R. -

The Phils have become a major team in the new millenium, during his time. He's part of the team that's dominated the NL during his stay and been intrumental, both offensively and defensively, in that accomplishment. He has been an outspoken team leader, as well, known for audacious predictions and ostentatious performance. He will get the benefit of the doubt for those reasons.

Acting against him will be the larger than normal number of offensively minded shortstops in this era. One might want to add to the big four mentioned (including the PED-influenced A-Rod and T-jad), people like JoseJoseJose and HanRam. His borderline numbers will have to compete with those guys, too.

He's got a shot, but he's no sure thing. Given his era and his accomplishments, Larkin was almost a no-brainer.

Cub or no Cub, you pay me the kind of money these guys make to play baseball and you would have to scrape me off the field when my days were over and pay security to keep me from coming back to try again.

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