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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

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***"The only problem with that is that he'd go in wearing a BlueJays hat"

As of right now, he would. If he pitches 4 more years at a HOF-level for the Phils and wins a WFC? I'd say he goes in as a Phil then.

Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 10:41 AM

***

4 more years would give him 6 as a Phillie and 12 as a Blue Jay. He'd still have a BlueJay hat.

NEPP - Maybe they could split the difference and have him wear a hat from the 1945 Philadelphia Blue Jays.

On a side note, have the Phils ever been "in" on Linebrink? I don't think he's as good as Wood, but, depending on his price, he may be a better option than Lidge.

When I say "better than Lidge" I mean more dependable in terms of Lidge's injury woes and declining velocity.

From the ended last thread:
Jbird, did you even read what I wrote?

No one is saying OBP is the only determinant.

Obviously you were being "funny" with the Nick Johnson mention.

Jimmy Rollins will have some interesting quantity, but not HOF quality. A good to very good glove (although some metrics aren't so sure) with a 97 OPS+ (which is likely to go down a notch).***

If you aren't at least giving a serious look to Edgar Martinez (a great offensive player -- more than just an OBP machine) and Larry Walker (ditto plus good defense), then you either have a dollhouse HOF (how does Rollins fit in there?) or you are just not looking at all the candidates with an open mind.

I don't think Edgar should go in (I have a high DH penalty, FWIW and his cumulative stats aren't THAT impressive) and I am on the fence with Walker (staying healthy is a factor).

*** Now if you were to tell me that the Phils had Jimmy Rollins-Clone sitting in the minors ready for the show in 2015, I would be overjoyed.


ON TOPIC: Time to move on from Lidge. Get somebody with a chance of being healthy or just run with the kids and adjust at mid-year if needed.

I can't wait for Big Truck to dominate this year.

Edmundo: I'll accept Dan's answer that it's better to be great at 1 thing than very good at many things. But, I think you're over-weighting ratios over counting stats.

"If he’s done, and the Phils feel they can do better from their cadre of young arms, the Phils just cut bait and move on."

Sounds like a perfectly acceptable low-risk move, in theory. In reality, it won't work like that. Lidge is one of "Cholly's guys," just like Ibanez was one of Cholly's guys last year. And, just as Cholly kept trotting Ibanez out there against left-handers, despite abundant evidence that he had no chance against them, Cholly will keep trotting Lidge out there in late innings of tight games, even if his ERA is 8.75.

Not to mention that there's an opportunity cost to signing him: it further postpones the day when we can start seeing what we have with the likes of Schwimer, DeFratus & Aumont.

Lidge has closing experience.

And, just to clarify: I do have real concerns about the back end of the bullpen & I do have real doubts about the young guys' ability to find instant success in the big leagues. If we can afford someone like Kerry Wood, for example, I'd be all in favor of it. But if Brad Lidge is the best we can do, I'd rather take my chances with the young guys.

The Phils have two young arms right now that might be ready to really help them at the start of the season: De Fratus & Schwimer. That's it.

Aumont ideally needs more time at Lehigh (hopefully as the closer) and Stutes isn't anything more than a marginal MLB reliever unless he has notably improved his slider this offseason.

It's time to let Lidge go. The psychological reasons alone are enough.

NEPP - Just so long as he doesn't drink from Papelbon's coffee mug.

BAP nailed it. If brad is our best choice. Start grooming the young guns. I don't want to see 87-89 when I can see 95 plus with plus secondary pitches.

MG - where are you on Savery?

Based on recent history, Lidge's usage will be limited to single innings and rarely on back-to-back days. Contreras will have similar limits out of the gate. You can't carry two guys like that or you'll be shorthanded way too often. Time to move on and give the kids a shot, unless Wood can be had cheaply (which I doubt - he'll stay a Cub unless he can get significantly more $$ elsewhere).

"Lidge's usage will be limited to single innings and rarely on back-to-back days . . . You can't carry two guys like that or you'll be shorthanded way too often."

The good news is that, even if we do sign Lidge, we'll probably never be carrying him on the roster at the same time as Contreras. The odds that both could be healthy at the same time are like the odds of getting hit by lightning, surviving, buying a jackpot-winning lottery ticket on the way home, then sitting out on your patio at night watching the Comet Kohoutek.

Damn all the statistics and logic. I'm sentimental. Sign him.

coloneltom: i think it's either the cubs will have to pay him good money to stick around while they rebuild, or he can take less money to go to a contender and try to win a WFC.

Papelbon
Bastardo
Stutes
KK or Blanton
Willis (ass-u-me he does OK as LOOGY)
Pick Two:
___Herndon
___De Fratus
___Schwimer


Unknowns at the begining of season, but possible help:
___Contreras
___Aumont
___Savery
___Diekman

The farm system has lots of holes. However there is an impressive inventory of young relief pitching. We've already gotten more out of Stutes and Bastardo than we ever got out of Mathieson or Zagurski. De Fratus remains high on the radar. No better time than April to see who can or can't hang. Even if they don't want to go that route, someone is bound to be cut in Spring Training.

The last thing I want to see is the Phils bringing back Lidge and being put in a situation where they'd have to cut the guy who helped bring them a World Series in the middle of the season. That would leave a bad taste in a lot of mouths.

I believe in turning the young guys lose. If it's that bad, there's always arms to be had in the trade market.

With Willis in the mix, I think Savery is looking at another year at AAA. Considering how he's been yanked around, I don't think that's a bad thing. I do think we'll see him make an appearance on the big league team this season, should injury or September offer the opportunity.

DeFratus and Schwimer are probably the two most likely "young studs" with upside (Herndon is a known commodity in that we know that he doesn't "solve" any back-end bullpen issue). They at least offer up the POSSIBILITY of an upgrade. Likelihood, like always, however, is a crapshoot.

By this time next year, Lidge will have retired, bought out White Castle and changed the name to "Nuthin But Sliders".

awh: You're forgetting Sanches. Notwithstanding his inauspicious Phillies career, and his pedestrian stuff, he has been a solid, inning-eating middle reliever for the last 3 seasons. Even though we signed him on a minor league deal, he's a virtual lock for our bullpen.

Of course, if Sanches walks 5.3 batters per 9 innings, as he did last year, he's not likely to be much help to our pen. His control is never going to be great, but he needs to keep the walk rate down around 4-ish, as he did in 2009 & 2010.

The Phillies better invite a couple more catchers to Spring Training to keep Ruiz fresh for the regular season.

LeRud, Gosewisch, Kratz, Schneider, prolly Valle too. Anyone else you want, Meyer? Irish Mike, maybe?

A couple more I believe if they sign Wood, Lidge and Doggie drags his plums back home.

Andy, you can't really count Schneider, though, since he only works with Worley...

Phils are interested in Jeremy Accardo acc to Crasnick in MLBTR. Really not too excited about that.. He's a fairly average arm. But I'm sure it keeps Phils "under budget", since he'd probably get between 850K and 1 mill.

"awh: You're forgetting Sanches."


bap, you are correct. I forgot him. I pulled the above names off of the 40-man roster, and Sanches is not on it.

Accardo would be a good minor league signing or even a split contract. Not a good signing with a guaranteed MLB deal.

Andy - Savery might got a shot this year if Willis ends up on the DL but Willis would have to be horrendous in spring training to not make the Opening Day roster. Too bad because Savery has done everything he can.

Diekman is more intriguing but he's going to be at Lehigh this year. His command has been really erratic at times though which isn't exactly ideal for a lefty matchup reliever. Sure the Phils want to see a bit more of him in the minors & that he fits more in their plans for '13.

Per MLBTradeRumors, Phils release Bowker so he can pursue opportunity in Japan.

Darn! And I really thought he was gonna contribute in 2012 :)

MLB Trade Rumors has a bit of news that will send some Beerleaguers out dancing in the streets--John Bowker has been released to pursue an opening in Japan. Now, let's hope he takes Mini-Mart along.

Accaro would be a Minor League deal. Not to worry. (Maybe).

New discussion: Dom Brown is currently a better baseball player than Ty Wigginton.

Discuss.

Jack, way to calm things down around here.

Dom Brown is also a better hitter than Wilson Valdez...what's your point?

Last I checked, Brown wasn't a utility infielder.

awh: I've been away for a while. I had to announce my return in style.

What's been the debates around here recently? I don't really have the desire to go back and read weeks worth of threads.

NEPP: I was under the impression that Wigginton was going to play a lot in the OF this year with Mayberry at 1B while Howard is out.

Am I wrong? Are they planning on playing him at 1B with Mayberry in LF? That actually makes more sense the more I think about it.

I have no idea where they're going to play Wigginton but over his career he's played about 9000 innings in the field and only 500 of them have been in the OF.

He's not an outfielder.

Jack: It's an apples to spatulas comparison. Dom plays corner OF (badly) and only corner OF. Wigginton can play 2nd and 3rd base -- poorly, but passably. He can also play 1st & the corner OF, & he can hit a little bit.

If Wigginton's offense is slightly worse than Dom Brown's, his overall value to the Phillies is still greater for the present time. They need a backup infielder more than they need another outfielder. If Dom substantially improves his offense, then that's an entirely different story.

Using Mayberry at 1st would be a total waste of his OF defensive skills. Plus, from what little I saw of his 1st base defense, it seems pretty crude. Wigginton/Nix would probably be no worse at 1st base.

I don't know if this was posted but Trevor May was asnwering some questions on Reddit. It's sloppy and hard to follow at timess but some of it is pretty interesting.

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/oa934/iama_top_prospect_in_the_mlb_minor_league_system/

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