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Saturday, January 28, 2012


I just got this email from Lil Roy

"Howdy Y'all
I am leavin. They even got tractor parking spots at the stadium. It's baseball heaven, yeeeehaaa. I 'ma get me a ring.
Roy O"

Will there be as much talk about his stint in the outfield as there was about Exxon's stint on the mound?

Yes 17%
No 73%
Meh 10%

If the Cards do truly sign him for less than 6MM (5MM offer), it's a shame the Phils didn't have the money to bring him back for a year.

Of course, with Blanton ostensibly healthy and Worley set to repeat his 2011 performance they probably really couldn't use him.

And for you nostalgia fans, there's this posted last night at mlbtr:

"By Mark Polishuk [January 27 at 11:30pm CST]"

"It was on this day in 1982 that the Cubs acquired Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa from the Phillies in a trade for Ivan De Jesus. The Bowa-for-DeJesus component ended up being pretty even, but needless to say, Chicago won that trade --- Sandberg went on to a Hall Of Fame career as one of the greatest Cubs of all time. Sandberg eventually returned to the Phillies organization in 2011, managing the team's Triple-A affiliate to an 80-64 record."

Unfavorable. Lost Anthony Gose for the price of watching Oswalt pitch terribly in nearly every playoff game he pitched for the Phillies. Helped cost the Phillies two play-off series.

"helped cost the phillies two playoff series"

He had a part in losing the 2011 NLDS, but he did everything he could to win the 2010 NLCS.

Game2: 1 runs in 8IP
Game6: 2 runs in 6IP

Yeah I'm not sure where mike is getting that he helped cost them the Giants series. He was the only starter that didn't cost them a game. Not sure you can pin the relief disaster on him, either.

This year was clearly a disappointment (especially in the playoffs) but he did what he was asked to do the year we acquired him. The last two playoff failures weren't Oswalt's fault. Favorable.

We were 2.5 games behind the Braves when we made the Oswalt trade. He proceeded to go 7-1 down the stretch. He also had 3 more starts in which he got no decision. In one of those games, he pitched 7 shutout innings of 1-hit ball against Atlanta. In another, 8 innings of 1-run ball. In another, 6.1 innings of 2-run ball. The Phillies ended up winning all 3 of those games. Hence, we went 10-1 in his first 11 starts with the team -- finally losing only on Sept. 28 (in a game where he pitched 5 shutout innings), after the division had already been clinched.

He wasn't good last year but he basically won us a division in 2010. And are people seriously distraught about losing Anthony Gose?

I'm going to channel recent BL logic in response to the post below, recopied from the previous thread:

You Fvcking moron, NEPP. How can you say that Papelbon isn't worth that contract when HE HASN'T EVEN THROWN A SINGLE PITCH YET!!

(How is that for totally missing the point? Am I BL royalty yet?)
Looking at that article, the Papelbon deal looks pretty fvcking stupid. If that is to believed, we're basically not able to add ANYONE all season if they won't go over the tax...if we do try to trade for someone, we'll need cash back too. Given our extremely thin system (some have us in the mid-20s now), Rube kinda screwed up royally.

Posted by: NEPP |

Favorable for this work after he was acquired in 2010. He did pitch a tick below what could be reasonably expected of him in 2011 and had foreseeable injury problems. His health couldn't stand up to being part of what could have been a historically great rotation, but ~140 IP of mid-3 ERA ... can't complain about getting that out of the 4th/5th pitcher in your rotation.

1/5-6 isn't much, but what do people expect from him next year? If his back is a continuing problem, he might be losing the ability to put hitters away. Chances are he's a league average starter for no more than 150 IP next year.

Of course, his back may recover in which case you'll notice he's only 34, went over 200 IP in 6 of the 7 seasons prior to 2011, and posted the highest SO/9 of his career in 2010.

I could see him going either way, but not a worth worth taking on a team with so many holes elsewhere.

bap, you mean the Anthony Gose, who looks to be a great base stealer, but can barely hit MiL pitching?

The Anthony Gose who looks to be another Endy Cahvez - at best. (AAMOF, if I were Gose, have a career as long as Chavez's should probably be a goal.)

I take that back. Chavez has a MLB career .274/.313/.373 slash line.

I'll bet Gose never hits .274 at the MLB level - if he makes it there.

Considering, by that article, we have basically zero space under the tax and are likely actually slightly over it as our payroll is probably going to be around $181 million with benefits added in, perhaps going top dollar to Papelbon wasn't a good idea.

We all thought we had a few million to play with and it turns out they're already busted.

BTW (and don't get mad at me JW), schmenkman has a decent post over at the Good Phight:

It's sure to rile up the Howard Hater Club.

I voted "Meh" on Oswalt because while he most definitely didn't hurt us in his 1.5 years here, he wasn't the missing piece to the puzzle for another title either.

It was a good trade though as he really stabilized the rotation in 2010 and gave them a shot at advancing. Its a shame we simply couldnt finish the job against SF.

awh: Phils couldn't afford Oswalt because of Howard's contract.

Oswalt was the very definition of a mixed bag. Excellent in the half season after the trade, and mediocre the second season.

It would be nice to have him back for 5-6 mil for one season, since Blanton is likely to break down again and Kendrick is more useful as a swing guy than a fulltime starter. But Papelbon and Howard and . . . . yada yada yada. You know the drill.

Opportunity cost is a subject that Beerleaguers don't like to think about. Maybe they think it doesn't exist. Hard to say, really.

But I'll be happy if all Rube does is find a decent utility infielder to round out the team. I don't think that's a lot to ask for.

And just as I upload the previous post, Clout appears to once again prove he's the funniest man on BL.

Clout - I have a serious question for you. What do you think the Phillies would have signed Howard for if they'd waited to resign him until his contract was up? What do you seriously think his value on the open market would have been if the Phillies had done what the Cards and Brewers did?

I think that's a fair question.

I liked Villar more than Gose.

NEPP, you're jumping to a lot of conclusions based on that article. I agree that the Phils are very close to the threshold, but I'm not sure it's certain they have no space to make a move at the deadline if necessary. There are a couple of places where I think he's off in the AAV (Howard, Rollins) and he admits he doesn't know what amount gets thrown in as benefits. If he's off by a few million, Phils have room to make a move. If not, makes me wonder why they tendered Kendrick.

I saw a similar article about the RedSox that also quotes benefits at around $10 million...FWIW.

awh: You're right, Gose is a terrible non-prospect. Never mind that he managed to hold his own offensively while being the 3rd-youngest player in the Eastern League. Never mind that he's a stellar defensive player, or that at the age when Endy Chavez was in rookie ball, he's in AA. He's got a low BA! Clearly, that settles everything.

It's the idea of Anthony Gose that he is upset about losing.

Gose was ranked at #57 on's prospect list for 2012.

The top Phillie on the list was Trevor #54.

Apparently Oswalt turned down 1/$10M from the Tigers.

I loved Oswalt in '10. He soured on me in '11 when he basically phoned in his outings after returning from his last DL stint, including Game 4 of the NLDS. So I voted "Meh, whatever". Truth is, I'm glad both sides moved on.

Oswalt may sign 1/$5 or whatever to play in St Louis, but I'm not sure he would have signed that to play anywhere is all I mean.

aksmith: I heard they may have to borrow baseballs from other teams to fill out the season because of Howard's contract. You've been right all along.

Gose is one of those prospects that is guaranteed to cause debate. The tools guys absolutely adore him, the sabremetric guys not so much.

I think Gose will be a good defender/good power/good speed/terrible average guy. I would put his upside as a Mike Cameron type.

But he very well could end up as a 4/5 OF if he doesnt control his SO rate.

I really don't endorse reading into players' motivations and body language and the like. Saying a guy is phoning it in or wahtever really gets too close to the world of fan fiction for my liking.

awh: Schmenkman is a recent addition to this site and a good one. He and sophist bring an objective analytical approach that nicely balances the emotional, no-insight posts of folks like Gtown Dave and Carson-GM. Not that they are bad posters, I enjoy them because they are amusing.

NEPP: It's funny you should mention Cameron. That's exactly who I thought of as Gose's ceiling.

I don't think Gose will come close to Cameron's power, but the rest of his game is quite similar.

Cameron had a breakthrough season in his second try at Double-A. It will be a nice test for Gose this season to see if he can do the same.

gobaystars!: You don't believe in grit, gumption, toughness, scrappiness and wanting it more than the other guy as the difference between teams that win and teams that don't?

"good defender/good power/good speed/terrible average guy."

I think serious questions still exist about the power potential...and if he doesn't end up with average-above average power he's a backup OF in all reality.

Chris in VT: Exactly right.

"I have a serious question for you. What do you think the Phillies would have signed Howard for if they'd waited to resign him until his contract was up? What do you seriously think his value on the open market would have been if the Phillies had done what the Cards and Brewers did?"

smitty, that's a "what if" question. It assumes that had the Phillies NOT extended Howard when they did everything wlse would have happened just as it did.

You cannot make that assumption.

I could go on ad infinitum about the possibilities that existed at the time.

One, if they hadn't agreed on an extension (let's assume Howard wanted more per season than they were willing to pay) it's possible the Amaro and Co. could have traded him after the 2010 season, so he wouldn't be here anyway. It's possible they would have traded Howard away, and then traded for AGon.

It's possible Howard would not have suffered the ankle injury in 2010 and would have continued on the power tear he was on at the time and either reached or gotten close to 40 HR/120 RBI which would make his counting stats look better for that year. It's possible he would not have come down with the sore achilles which seemed to hamper him in 2011 and eventually tore.

If Howard's not injured in 2010 and is fully healthy throughout 2011 and hits 40 HR in each season and gets to 120 or more RBI - which, if you want to play "what if's" and change history I'm allowed to also - if that happens IMO he'd still would have gotten an AAV close to what he got, but probably not anywhere near the 9 or 10 years Fielder/Pujols got.

I think the benchmark would have been the age 36 season that the Fielder/Texiera/AGon deals expire, and he probably would have gotten an AAV close to 25MM with at least 5 years.

Of course, the Phillies could have signed Fielder or Pujols to the contract lengths they received.

OTOH, if they hadn't signed him and we assume - as you do - that everything else would have occured exactly as it did (injuries, decline in production, etc.), he probably would only have wanted a one year deal - somewhere - to rebuild his value. Then again, he may not have even played on the achilles and torn it without the security of a long-term deal, which blows your assumptions out of the water.

You see smitty, "what if's" are fun and entertaining, but riven by the assumptions with which they are made.

Bob Mitchell of the Toronto Star reports Jose Bautista has been "randomly" drug tested an extraordinary number of times by Major League Baseball.

I can't imagine why.

***I don't think Gose will come close to Cameron's power, but the rest of his game is quite similar.***

I was thinking Cameron with a bit less power and a bit more speed. Maybe 20 HR/40 SB instead of 30/30 as a peak.

Dave, I didn't say he was a non-prospect. I merely compared to to a guy who has had a 10-year MLB career.

That's bad?

Gose seems to have developed better OB skills, but Chavez OB skills in the minors were better than at the MLB level. Gose is also a good base stealer, and had a spike in power last season.

But let's not yet pretend he's the second coming of Willie Mays, or even Shane Victorino.

It's way to early for that.

I don't think Gose is more than a 12-15 HR guy in the majors, but he should have a large number of 2Bs and 3Bs that will keep his SLG% up.

If he's a 20/40 GG guy in CF that makes him basically a perennial All-Star.

clout, link?

***I don't think Gose is more than a 12-15 HR guy in the majors***

I dont know...scouts have always said he had decent power potential. It all depends on his contact rate.

As for the 20/40 thing...that was a "what he could do in a best case upside scenario in his peak season" type of projection.

I hope he's not still pissed.

Respective AA numbers:

Gose: .763 OPS (Age 20)
Chavez: .716 OPS (Age 23)

Its a bad comp by any means. 3 years difference is huge at that level.

The crime in that trade wasn't losing was watching Ed Wade flip him for Brett Wallace (.703 OPS as a 1B at Age 24)

"As for the 20/40 thing...that was a "what he could do in a best case upside scenario in his peak season" type of projection."

Reasonable way to understand the statement since Cameron never quite hit 30/30 anyway (in the same season, that is), and hit more than 25 HR only once. If Cameron averaged about 22 HR/year in his prime seasons ('99-'06), what would a guy like Gose average at best -- given his current ability? Probably about half that, which means if he hit 10-13 HR/year for most of his prime and then 20 in one season it wouldn't be a shocker.

Sounds more like Victorino than Cameron.

NEPP, I concede Chavez isn't the best comparison (he was the first one who came to mind and I din't look real closely at teh numbers), but one thing Chavez did better at every level of MiL, regardless of age, is get on base at a much higher rate. Also, Gose is a K-machine right now (26% last season) (you mentioned his contact rate), and Chavez K rate was less than 10%.

For a guy who may only develop moderate power, Gose has much improving to do.

I agree with Chris in VT's assessments above.

***Probably about half that, which means if he hit 10-13 HR/year for most of his prime and then 20 in one season it wouldn't be a shocker. ***

I would agree with that.

Prospects are all Ed Wade's special little snow flakes. We shouldn't compare them to other players. We should just let them be thier unique beautiful selves as we nuture them and love them for who they are. Awww.

Stop using Howard's contract as the reason for any financial problems the Phils may have. What's done is done. If he were healthy and been a FA at this point, while he would not have gotten anything close to to what Fielder an Pujols got, he certainly would have gotten more that 125 million & the Phils would have lost him. The only adverse effect his current contract id the AAV # that counts againt the cap.

At the time, they felt it was the prudent thing to do.

When he comes back, if he gives you .60/20/80, that's nice considering his injury. No one can predict anyone is gonna get hurt.

The real problem that exists is the the Phils refusal to go over the cap and pay a tax, currently 20% for every $ they go over (3 million would only mean @ 600k tax). If they would go deep into the playoffs, they would easily recoup that amount. The Phils could've used Theriot, but didn't sign him because it would've probably put them over the cap. It's rediculous top thionk that way. Now we're stuck with Martinez.

Another problem is that Roob has a tendency to give out contracts that are 1-year too long (Polly, Raul, Contreras just to name a few). Contracts as these, along with the monster contract for Lee hamstring the Phils as much as Howard's. And I'm gonna say right now Hamels will not be re-signed. They will go in a cheaper direction and that may not be the best move.

I can see Vic being moved, using Pierre in CF and bringing in Wright, using Polly & Brown as part of the package, using Vic's money to help pay Wright. Many of you will disagree with my comments and that's fine.

I can tell you this, the team that starts 2012 is not as good as the one that finished 2011 it won't the the same one that finishes 2012.

NEPP, that's a great point.

Which be worse?:

Trading Anthony Gose for Roy Oswalt?

Trading Anthony Gose for Brett Wallace?

@awh, you said that Chavez was his ceiling at best, and then corrected yourself by saying that he'd never hit for average as well as Chavez. So actually, you said that a substandard version of Chavez was his ceiling.

You're basically saying that Gose's ceiling isn't as good as a bench player/AAAA type. That's not really a prospect unless the "prospect" is in AAA.

And while there are holes in Gose's game, there's a lot to like. One of the main reasons his average is low is because he's very young for his league. He may turn into Chavez, or he may never even play in the ML. But I'd say that his ceiling is quite a bit higher.

DomP, trading for Wright?

I'd say there's a low probability of that. The Mets are already on the hot seat with their fans. if they move the face of the team to a division rival it will take years to recover fan trust.

Yeah, sounds like he's Vic's power potential and BB% with Cameron's BA. Given his age, though, and his recent improvements in plate discipline, and the possibility that he makes a jump, tough player to lose and not get a pennant, at least, as a result (not necessarily Oswalt's fault). His 2011 in AA shows a ton of promise.

Even if he is a .250/.320, 10 HR, 30 2B, 10 3B CF ... well, he'd look pretty good as a low cost option in between Pence and Brown (or Vic and Brown if you'd like).

Dave, you're reading way too much into my post, as misinterpreting it as well.

Go pick a fight with someone else.

Uh Oh, look out Howard Haters. Charlie's gonna tinker with his schwing!

This is from th esame linked article:

"Manuel said he saw former top prospect Domonic Brown in Florida and that Brown has narrowed his stance and altered his batting practice routine. In 2011, Brown, 24, hit .245 in 56 games with the Phillies and .274 in 46 games at Triple A Lehigh Valley, where general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. said he would like to see Brown remain the entirety of 2012 . . . Manuel said he expects to use Thome perhaps once a week at first base, even while Howard is out. Thome, 41 with back issues, will share the bag with leftfielder John Mayberry and Ty Wigginton. He also occasionally will spell Howard when Manuel determines that Howard needs a break, or when the Phils face a starter against whom Howard struggles."

awh: what a massive copout on "what ifs". Anyone that critisized the Howard deal when it was made was told they were fools because it hadn't even kicked in yet. The same thing was said during 2 down seasons preceding the deal. Now that Howard is starting his new deal coming off 2 subpar to average seasons and a major leg injury with 3 better players at the position (AGone, Fielder, & Pujols) signing deals with lower AAV's, supporters of the deal want to say, "well no one could have known how it would all turn out". How about everyone who critisized the deal 2 years ago? This is exactly why everyone said it was a bad deal- the team was taking all the risk and getting no discount for it. If it had at least been a team friendly deal (maybe $17-18m AAV) in exchange for Howard getting security we could all see that Ruben was taking a calculated risk that might payoff and might not, but at $25m per, there was no upside for the Phillies and, unfortunatly so far, the worst case scenario is playing out. I hope he comes back and hits well, I want him to proove me wrong, but at this point, even best case scenario is that he makes the deal "worth it" which for me would mean at least 3 years like 2009 when he hit .279/.360/.571 and 2 years a little better than last of .260/.350/.500, I don't see it.

The Howard defenders can be just as irrational as the Howard haters. Persoanlly I like Howard and I'm glad he's on the team, I just don;t think he should be the centerpiece of the offense that his contract demands him to be. I think he;s more of a classic 5-hole hitter, really.

Using Brown's BA, and only quoting his BA, seems pretty lazy / doesn't really provide full context to what Brown accomplished last year in ~200 PA (12% BB-rate, 17% LD-rate, healthy HR/FB) at 23. Hopefully he crushes in Spring Training and we see an opening day lineup with Brown in left and Mayberry at first.

I think JBird put the Howard/anti-Howard contract matter in perspective pretty well.

If a deal can't be criticized when it's made because the player hasn't "thrown a pitch or hit a ball yet," and it can't be criticized when it goes south because that's hindsight, then when can any deal actually be criticized? Only after the player is retired? So, in essence, nobody can ever criticize a deal while it's still in effect. Why is that? Only on BL.

I happen to like Howard. In fact, I like him so much that I'd like to see him go back entirely to his off the plate, opposite field swing. The one Charlie messed up when he tried to get him to start pulling the ball. He destroyed his natural swing. And I'd like to see him getting his old swing back for somewhere around 5-7 million per year less, which is probably a little more than he'd be making if Rube had any patience.

"The Anthony Gose who looks to be another Endy Cahvez - at best.... I take that back. Chavez has a MLB career .274/.313/.373 slash line. I'll bet Gose never hits .274 at the MLB level"

Misinterpret nothing. When you say that Gose could be Chavez, at best, it's an entirely valid interpretation that you're saying that Chavez is his ceiling.

"regardless of age"

Hell, if we start disregarding a prospect's age at a level, we might as well just crown Matt Rizzotti as the next All-Star.

Oswalt seemed to give his all while he was here even when he wasn't at his physical best. I appreciate that. But I never got the sense that he wanted to be in Philadelphia.

Enjoy baseball heaven. I hope the Phils batter him.

Enough of the Howard contract. It's done and he is here for 5 years. So let's drop it and move on. Can't change anything. He gives ya 145-150 games 30/40 homers and 115 plus RBI then that's ok. Could be Travis lee or Rico B.

AWH~ Wright coming here is a long-shot, I know. Just playing off of what Ben Davis said the other day about Roob having a "trick up his sleeve" with RAJ trading for "some offense", saying Brown would not be the Phils this summer as he would be part of the packaage. Go back & watch the clip "What is expected of Brown" with Salibury. It makes for interesting fodder.

The Mets are in deep financial trouble. Depending on how it all plays out, I can see them wanting to unload Wright's contract.

I'm not saying anything will happen at all, but I still can't believe in reality the RAJ is truely happy with this team from an offense standpoint. We all know how good then can be. We also know what happens when they're not good. That said, coupled with Howard's injury and age, I just believe the offense needs some help. I hope I'm wrong.

"Manuel said he saw former top prospect Domonic Brown in Florida and that Brown has narrowed his stance and altered his batting practice routine."

Cholly later added that Brown has been working on his swing all winter & is in the best shape of his life.

"He soured on me in '11 when he basically phoned in his outings ..."
Scotch Man,
1) I think you mean YOU soured on HIM

2) I agree with gobaystars! -- how in the world are you able to separate his issues with his back from his motivation and effort?

3) He was better than usual in 2010, and worse than usual in 2011. Overall with the Phillies he was 16-11 with a 2.96 ERA -- not too shabby. His career stats per 162 games, 16-10 with a 3.21 ERA.

***Cholly later added that Brown has been working on his swing all winter & is in the best shape of his life.***

Hopefully Utley's lawn chair is working with Dom on his fielding.

I don't understand the love for Wright.

- his defense has been terrible for years

- overall, he hasn't been much better than Polanco over the last three years (or he's been a little worse, according to FanGraphs)

- he will be paid $15 million in 2012, and then becomes a free agent

I agree with awh -- the Mets wouldn't trade him. And we should be grateful for that, since RAJ might have been tempted.

DPatrone, I'm not as worried about the offense as you are....

They had the highest-scoring offense in the league for the last 2/3+ of the season (after Utley returned), with among the fewest games with 3 runs scored or less.

From that offense, the changes are these:
- Howard will be out to start
- full year of Pence
- Ibanez and his .707 OPS will almost certainly be improved upon
- better offense off the bench

Dave: "Hell, if we start disregarding a prospect's age at a level, we might as well just crown Matt Rizzotti as the next All-Star."

That was done by most BL posters two years ago. You're late to the party.

aksmith: I sure hope no one is saying you can't criticize Howard's contract. You sure can.

But at the same time, it's fair to note that such criticism is speculation, not the stone cold fact that you and the other members of the Moronocracy say it is.

JBrid whines about AAV without noting the far greater length of the other players whose contracts he's comparing Howard's to. It's apples to oranges.

Howard's contract could absolutely be a disaster. then you and the others can crow about it.

But we won't know that for sure until we see how his contract -- and baseball economics generally -- play out over the next few years.

schmenkman: I agree with 99% of what you post, which is kinda scary, but let me nmake one slight demurral on Wright. He was an above average fielder up until about 3 years ago. Not sure what happened but his range has been below average since and, last year, his error rate jumped.

I'd say he was terrible last year but not "terrible for years." The rest of your Wright post is 100% correct.

Wright's defense isn't terrible...its just average.

He used to be pretty elite with the glove but he's now run of the mill.

schmenkman: Wright was one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball only a few years ago. I can't say that I watch him play often enough to have an opinion on his defense but, given where it started, and the fact that he's only 29, I think "terrible" is a bit of overstatement.

I also don't know how anyone could say that he has barely been better than Polanco. Even in an injury plagued 2011 season that was easily the worst of his career, his OPS was nearly .100 points better than Polanco's. And, remember, he has played the last couple years at a ballpark which is murder on offensive numbers.

I was shocked to see how bad Wright rated out on UZR and TZ when I just looked.

I dont recall him being that bad in all the games we've watched but damn...

Offensively, he's still pretty solid.

Again, Clout, the Elite of BL, and you, have to judge everything in hindsight. I'm telling you the contract is a disaster. Not a fatal one, but it has certainly limited the moves the team would like to make. That seems clear. And it will be even more clear if Rube bottom feeds to fill Valdez' spot. If he somehow pulls out a very good utility infielder or makes Polanco the UT and grabs a good third baseman, then I'll happily admit I was wrong.

And when/if this contract is the reason the team doesn't do the things it needs to do, I will not crow. I'm now "crowing" now. I don't feel like I have to be right at the expense of the Phillies. That would be pure ego and I leave that sphere to you.

I hope the Phillies are able to overcome their mistake (Yeah, I'm saying it is and was and will be a mistake to overpay Howard, even though it's ONLY five more years) and sign enough quality players to keep winning and hopefully get a couple of WS championships to keep 08 company.

Are you still going to be this smug if MiniMart is the main utility infielder to backup this aging bunch? Or do you think Wiggy is going to be better than pretty bad?

Wright hit better at Citi Field than he did on the road in 2010 and had basically even splits in 2011.

NEPP, agreed that Wright is solid offensively, and much better than Polanco.

But if the Phillies score more runs, but then give up a lot of them on defense, that's not really helping much.

And if they pay an extra $10 M per year in the bargain (or $15 M more if the keep Polanco as a supersub), I have a hard time seeing the benefit.

Interestingly enough, Wright is the worst 3B in baseball per UZR/150 over the last 3 years.

I'd take Wright's defense at 3B if he gave us the .847 OPS he posted in 2009/2010. The question is whether he still has that offensive ability or is he damaged goods.

That's elite offense at a thin position.

"Wright hit better at Citi Field than he did on the road in 2010 and had basically even splits in 2011."

Still doesn't necessarily mean that Citi Field isn't affecting his numbers. I have to think it probably is. I also have to think that his back injury, which caused him to miss 2 months, played a huge role in his 2011 decline. For all the consternation about how much he has fallen, a healthy David Wright still managed to post .837 and .856 OPS in 2009 & 2010. Among NL 3rd baseman, only Aramis Ramirez topped those numbers last year.

I assume it is, bap...considering most guys hit better at home than on the road and moving from the 2nd toughest park in the NL to one of the better offensive parks would definitely be a boost to his numbers...particularly his fading HR numbers.

I'd steer clear of Wright--too expensive and too much of an injury risk. Chase Headley is the Phillies' future 3B in my book; he's cost-controlled and younger. If I were Rube, I'd send Brown and a relief prospect (possibly throw in a second pitching prospect) to the Pads for Headley. Then the infield would be set through 2013, and we'd only have to worry about center/left field and Hamels at the end of 2012. Outfielders aren't nearly at as big a premium as good hot-corner players; I'd consider going for Sizemore again if Vic won't resign.

Headley would cost a bit more than Brown/De Fratus (relief prospect I would suspect you're thinking of)

He's under team control for 3 more years including 2012. 3B is probably the thinnest position in the majors right now.

I think some of the interest in Wright is related to (i) the hitter/defender he was when the Mets were relevant; (ii) the IF offense and defense the Phils had at 1B-2B-SS during that same time period (the possibility of a 4 Aces sort of thing); (iii) the similarities between 3B on the Phils and goaltending on the Flyers (protean, futile attempts to replace a legend, lots of false hopes).

WAR since 2009:

Wright: 7.8 in 403 games
Polanco: 6.3 in 407 games

Wright: 9.5
Polanco: 10.0

Averaging the two:
Wright: 8.7
Polanco: 8.2

Point being, they've added similar value, in about the same number of games, because Wright's much better offense is negated by his much worse defense.

So again, I wouldn't want to add $10 M to the Phillies payroll for little or no gain.

Next, CBP is far from "one of the better offensive parks".

Over the past 4 years, the Phillies and their opponents haven't scored any more runs at CBP than they have in the Phillies' road games in the other parks.

Also, the Phillies and their opponents haven't hit any more HRs at CBP than they have in the other parks.

***the similarities between 3B on the Phils and goaltending on the Flyers (protean, futile attempts to replace a legend, lots of false hopes). ***

At least Michael Jack didnt crash a Ferrari into an there's that.

On that vibe, getting Wright feels like getting Roenick for the "right" move.

You're all barking at the moon. Hector Luna is the next 3B.

schmenkman, Polanco is fairly undervalued by a lot of people because defense is harder to to measure, his poor production prior to hitting the DL, and due to the belief that his health concerns are age related / he's what we call "washed up."

If Polanco puts up his averages since 2009, he'll be very good value.

since 2009: .287/.335/.377, 90 OPS+, 136 games
since 2000: .303/.348/.409, 98 OPS+, 132 games

FWIW he hit .284/.345/.324 after he returned from the DL last year.

NEPP, I thought Schmidt was Parent. Rolen crashed the proverbial Ferrari. Or do I have this wrong? It's late.

Yeah, Schmidt is more comparable to Parent than Lindbergh...good point.

Wasn't Wright's injury last season a pretty serious back injury? Sending the Mets a ton, and paying Wright the money would scare the heck out of me.

While I could really understand discussing acquiring somebody exciting like Zimmerman, this frequent desiring of Headley and Wright on this board reminds me of this....

JBird, are you an idiot, or do you not have any reading comprehension skills whatsoever.

Cop out? How? I answered smitty's question as to what I thought Howard would get based on HIS assumptions.

Beyond that, how is pointing out that for every assumption he makes someone else can make a confilicting assumption.

Let me ask you this:

Do you think, if he didn't have the security of a long term deal, Ryan Howard would have played on a bad achilles tendon in 2011 knowing he could tear it and f88k up any chance he had of getting paid in free agency? Do you really?

I'm amazed at the lack of mental acuity by some of the posters on this board who assume that if something else had happened in the past that nothing else different would or could have happened to follow. They assume that everything else except that one single event would have occured exactly the same. Sheesh.

awh, totally agreed.

I'm amazed at the lack of mental acuity by some of the posters on this board who assume that if something else had happened in the past that nothing else different would or could have happened to follow. They assume that everything else except that one single event would have occured exactly the same. Sheesh.


The problem awh is that applying the logic you ask for means you have to be able to think about a few strands of logic at once. Too many posters can't follow one strand of logic.

People that believe Juan Pierre to take the starting job in CF and was brought here because RAJ wants to trade Victorino are nuts. Just wanted to toss that out there because I keep hearing it ...

I doubt Pierre plays 1 inning of Cf. Mayberry and nix would both cover center before him.

Rich Thompson has CF covered at LV. I guess that leaves Reading.

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