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Sunday, January 15, 2012

Comments

Joel can pitch batting practice to Howard when he rehabs in Pigland.

The '12 Iron Pigs rotation of Pineiro, Misch, Bush, Bump, and Fierabend puts LHV over the top.

Makes me hungry for Grammy's goulash.

I like the Piniero move. I'd like the Phils to look at Guzman as a Howard fill in. I like him better than Wiggington.

Saber-oriented folks see a guy in Blanton is under-appreciated especially in '10 but I bet Amaro sees a guy who is damaged goods and a 50/50 bet at best to give him 180-200 IP this year.

If Blanton was tradeable (he's not due to his elbow status), I am sure Amaro would have dumped him already this offseason even if he had to a $2-$3M hit to do so to free some money to go other needs (setup arm) or even another veteran starter.

Amaro's done a nice job this offseason of quietly acquiring some veteran starting depth at Lehigh.

The seemingly never-ending quest though for left-handed relievers is a bit puzzling especially with the Willis signing. Are LOOGYs to Amaro as windmills to Don Quixote? Frankly given how Cholly uses veteran LH relievers, this team is fine if they break camp with Bastardo/Willis in the pen.

Perhaps they have Blanton and Piniero penciled in as the once Pedro named "Old Goat" duo of the year.

I like Guzman too and piece by piece we are coming closer to my Goya sponsored second tier and castoffs All-Latino team. I can almost taste the all new Adobo Fries.

Isn't everyone always looking for LHP?

Beard - It seems to be that way although there are still several veteran LOOGYs without jobs yet.

"Frankly given how Cholly uses veteran LH relievers,..."
-MG

This comment got me to thinking how Cholly goes to the same guys, over and over, again, despite their lack of production. After watching the lame performance by LSU in the BCS Championship sticking with their worthless starting QB, I'm starting to thing that Cholly is the Les Miles of MLB.

What is the Pads projected 2012 OF?

Alonso - LF
Maybin - CF
Quentin - RF

reserve: DeNorfia
reserve: Venable
reserve: Kotsay
reserve: Blanks
reserve: Guzman

Guzman played 1B last year, Yonder, Blanks, and Kotsay all play there as well. Thats a ton of corner OF/1B on their roster.

I think the most realistic trade candidate would be Denorfia in that #1 he brings value and #2 he has the most service time, and therefore the most "expensive" to SD, altho its just a $1.1M salary. .800 career OPS vs LHP as a righty, and can fill in for CF when needed, and a .780 career OPS outside Petco.

As Jack and several others would say if they were here: Joel Pineiro's career 5.4 K/9 is way too low for him to succeed at the major league level.

I think this is a great low-cost, potential high-payoff signing. Since 2005 he's been very up and down mixing in really bad years with some really nice ones. More recently he was bad in '08 and '11 but good in '09 and '10.

He's also pitched out of the bullpen in about 75 games so both he and KK can be swingmen. Blanton is a huge question mark and Worley is no slam dunk either.

Good move by Rube.

lorecore: As you note, Denorfia can play CF and he's not bad there, at least league-average. He's not a corner OF. Ditto Venable.

Alonso will battle Rizzo for the starting 1B job and if he loses, will be sent down. He is dreadful in the OF, only played there because of Votto and the Reds wanted to give him a try. But he's strictly 1B or (less likely) 3B.

Guzman is a similar story. You would only play him in the OF in an emergency. He is Pat Burrell out there.

Their starting OF will be Venable/Denorfia, Maybin and Quentin with Kotsay and Blanks battling for the 5th spot.

Guzman, Alonso and Rizzo will battle for the 1B job and one of the losers will likely be traded.

clout: Rizzo was traded to the Cubs last week for Andrew Cashner.

I dont think Alonso would be sent down after being a major piece in the Latos, so if hes that bad in the OF than I bet he wins out at 1B.

I knew one of these guys where coming here eventually. The Phillis famous reclamation projects. Same-O Same-O...lol...Nothing here to see folks keep it moving...

My lady is a hardcore Angels fan (Halo tattoo behind her ear) and I've seen an awful lot of him, courtesy of our friends at FSN West.

Thankfully, this cannot be any worse than Freddy Garcia's $10 million dollar win, and Adam Eaton came to mind too.

I remember watching him on the road in Oakland against Gio Gonzalez and him mustering only one out before being yanked, and knew something was wrong. He started going 2 and 3 innings at best, and they started pitching Chatwood and Williams or jumping back to Haren and Weaver on short notice when the schedule would allow.

Hopefully, he can channel the ghost of Moyer's past and eat those innings, getting the job done on the cheap, but I don't expect him to make the big league squad with Blanton, Kendrick, and Worley filling the last two rotational spots.

What this deal tells me is that they're more than worried about Contraras. Piniero will certainly make the team if he does even ok in ST. He's also depth for Blanton when he breaks down (he will).

Three inter-changeable arms in JP, KK & Worley. Not a bad problem to have.

Has Rube totally closed the door on Oswalt coming back on a 1-year deal?

Obviously they were never going to option him at 16 million. Even though some posters on here were convinced Oswalt was so good he was assuredly going to receive a 3 year deal somewhere, that was never going to be the case. He still has enough talent to make a 1-year deal at reasonable cost (8 mill?) a worthy investment, though. But I haven't heard anything about the Phils being interested.

Thoughts?

Pineiro seems rather over-qualified to be pitching at AAA. He'll probably bolt in mid-season when the Phillies can't make room for him on the major league roster by his opt-out date. But, until then, he provides some nice rotation depth. There's no reason that any person could be against this signing.

I'm surprised more people here haven't delved into Piniero's game logs in 2011.

He was actually passable in the first half, posting a 3.90 ERA in 90 IP through July 9th. His periferals weren't great, but they weren't awful.

The wheels fell off after that - .711 ERA the rest of the way.

Good signinig by Rube.. Piniero would be a 4th starter on a lot of teams. It seems that after Duncan got a hold of him, he became more of a ground ball pitcher than in Seattle/Boston. Surprised he didn't wait for a major league deal. That said, good insurance signing for chump change.

Interesting side note- Baseball-Reference.com has Pineiro's top 2 similar players over the span of his career as ex-Phillies Paul Byrd- #1 and Vincente Padilla- #2. Also, Kyle Lohse- #6 , Mark Portugal- #8, and Flint Rhem- #10 wore Philadelphia red pinstripes. So in a way, Pineiro is a familiar face.

As Jack and several others would say if they were here: Joel Pineiro's career 5.4 K/9 is way too low for him to succeed at the major league level.

Apparently clout believes that signing a minor league contract equates to "succeed at the major league level". Interesting.

All kidding aside, why not sign Pineiro? If he's healthy he can provide 5th/6th/7th/8th starter innings with a decent chance of keeping the team in the game. If he's not healthy, we still have Misch and Bush.

One wonders why Piniero would sign a MiL deal with the Phillies.

One explanation, as JW points out, is :...how Philadelphia has become a premier destination for aging players positioning for a final shot at a title."

I have to wonder whether a decond explanations is:

In order to get him to sign, Piniero was told of the status of Blanton's elbow, and therefore, he fully expects to log some MLB starts this season.

And, have they told him that they intend to keep KK exclusively in the 'pen this season?


Rotation depth?:

Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Worley
Blanton
Piniero
Kendrick
Bush
Misch
Feierbrand
Bump

agree with bap's likely prediction. Piniero doesn't see any mlb time and opts out to become a FA to eat innings for some team already 30 games back in the standings.

but yeah - no reason not to pick up someone of his ilk on a minor league deal. Realisticly, he probably has the best chance of any of the Phils 'no risk' pitchers over last few years.

Does Moyer have any ST invites?

Good move by Amaro. As others have said, this is a low risk/potentially high reward signing and helps the organizations rotation depth a great deal.

But, I doubt it's solely problems with Blanton that's caused this signing. Vance Worley will be entering his sophomore year and he's not going to duplicate his 2011 numbers. In fact, I think expecting his ERA to be south of 4.25 this year would be overly optimistic. For a guy who doesn't have lights out stuff, a K/9 rate of 8.1 is incredible.

Worley's a control pitcher, and I strongly suspect his K-rate is inflated from what he'll normally post in the majors, mainly because hitters weren't familiar with him. Now, this is belied by his still high K-9 rate in the second half, but there was a worrisome increase in hitters OPS in August and September of 2011.

I think Amaro's hoping Worley puts up numbers for a decent 5th starter, say 10 wins and an ERA that hovers between 4.25 and 4.50. Piniero and Kendrick are added insurance if Worley falls apart instead.

Yeah, solid little move. Probably no real reason to over analyze the reasons behind it. Could he end up as a reliever option at some point?

Pinero is more than likely an irrelevant move ala Kris Benson.

Godfather: For that reason I was hoping they would've included Worley in the Pence deal and saved a prospect - perhaps could have kept Santana and made it Cosart or Singleton instead of both. I thought that was the beauty of including Happ in the Oswalt trade

Side point from the Obvious and Beaten to Death File: Watching the NFL playoffs this weekend, and thinking about the Cardinals win, it's obvious that execution and toughness are paramount to winning championships (the media calls it the hot team). Having a bloated payroll of aging veterans who used to get it done, or even a shiny roster of allstars and award winners isn't enough.

the 1993, 2008, and 2009 team had the intangibles. 1993 and 2009 were mostly derailed by bad strategy decisions.

The Phillies have all the talent in the world but they just lack that intangible
clutch execution not to mention requisite IQ.

Saw that Wood finally signed for $3M last Friday. Sounded like he was never remotely seroius though about leaving Chicago. Amaro probably just kicked the tires on him to see if he was even willing to sign with another club.

On one hand, you have to commend Wood for staying in Chicago with his family & taking less bucks to do so. On the other, he has always been a guy who has shied away from the spotlight & generally been content to pitch for also-rans who have no shot to win.

PHinBK: Not sure I understand the Football/Phils reference.

"I think expecting his ERA to be south of 4.25 this year would be overly optimistic."


Padrino, I'll take the "under" on that expectation.

I don't know how much under it he'll be, by I fully expect him to be better than league average.

Here's why:

Worley's 'reputation' as a prospect was hurt in the minors by the year he had at Reading in 2009, when he went 7 - 12 with a 5.34 ERA in 27 starts. But if you look at his peripherals that year, they weren't so awful that you'd think he was a bust.

His WHIP was 1.383, a career high, and while not off the charts, he did have a K/BB of 2.04, in a year where he walked a career high 49, 2.9 per 9 IP. He also was prone to giving up the long ball that year, giving up 17 in 153 IP. He also had trouble striking guys out, only faniing 5.9 per 9 IP - another career low.

The next season he came back to Reading, obviously made some adjustments, posted a 3.20 ERA in 112 IP, bettered his periferals, and was promoted to Lehigh Valley.

He showed enough at Lehigh Valley to get promoted in September, and the rest is history.

My point is that if you look at the rest of his minor league career his highes ERA was the 3.77 he logged at Lehigh Valley in 2010, and logged a 2.31 ERA there before being called up last season - after Schneider helped him with the advice on throwing the 2-seamer more to LHH.

Is it possible the movement on his 2-seamer is so deceptive that he's going to be able to handle LHH fom here on out? (I say 'handle' and not 'dominate', which is what he did in 2011 [he was .201/.271/.299 vs. LHH in 2011 in 275 PA; that's LOOGY good].)

Personally, I expect some regression, but nothing in his minor league career sugests he's going to flame out. He pithced well everywhere exept one year in Reading, and we may be able to dismiss that due to adjustment issues.

I'll stick ny neck out and toss a vote of confidence in Worley's direction:

He'll be better than league average, and he'l surprise people again year because he won't regress as much as they expect.

Prediction day is gona be fun.

(damn typos)

BB is probably right about there being no more to this move than meets the eye. If an established big league starter agrees to take a minor league deal, why would the Phillies say no? End of story.

On the other hand, since we already have a solid 6th starter who is being paid $3.5M, and since Pineiro would seemingly be the type of guy that could get a guaranteed contract somewhere, it's hard not to wonder . . .

This is an interesting article aver at si.com about elite closers and their value:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/01/13/ryan.madson.prince.fielder/index.html?sct=mlb_t12_a1

BAP-- It does seem like a pre-cursor type move by Rube. Is it possible that either Blanton (depending on health) or Kendrick goes in a package deal for a 3B now or at the deadline? David Wright would look cool in blood stripes.

@AWH

On the other hand his WHIP was 1.230 during the course of the year, which is good, but not ERA of 3.01 good (most pitchers with that WHIP have an ERA in the mid to high 3's, unless they give up a below average number of HR like Worley did at 0.7).

His K-rate is also lower in the minors (judging by the past 2 years about 7K/9IP seems normal for him) which is pretty good, but Worley was above that at 8.1K/9IP for 2011. His homerun rate in the minors is also 0.9/1.0 HR/9 innings. It's rare when a pitcher performs better than his numbers in the minors for his rookie year, and that's the principal reason I expect regression.

Those numbers (WHIP, HR, K-BB) in the minors point to a guy with an ERA in the high 3's assuming he matches them with the Phillies. And because of the better competition in the majors I expect him to do worse than that in his sophomore year, it's a question of how much. Hence the 4.25ERA ballpark. Now, for a #5 starter, that's great. A lot of teams would kill to get that kind of production out of the bottom of their rotation.

And this is what I think he'll do for his sophomore year. Meaning: he'll get better as he matures. But that's also the good case scenario. Equally possible is Worley flaming out in the majors, which isn't unusual. Brandon Duckworth had better WHIP, K-9, K/BB, and ERA+ than Worley in AA and AAA and look what happened to him.

Padrino, as I posted, I expect regression from Worley as well.

I just don't think he'll regress as far as you do.

Padilla to the Bosox. Good pickup for them, IMO.

oogie: I have difficulty seeing how Blanton or KK would be attractive to a rebuilding team like the Mets. If the Mets are going to give up Wright, they'll want prospects -- and significant ones, at that.

I do think RAJ would love to trade Blanton, if only for salary relief - but I already thought that before the Pineiro signing. If there is a deeper meaning to be inferred from the Pineiro signing, the inference that this poster would draw is that the Phillies have real doubts about whether Blanton is healthy enough to be a useful starter this year.

Seth Smith traded for Outman and Moscoso..Good deal for Rockies. With the commitment to Cuddyer, Smith has long been on the block. I think they got good value for Smith, who is really a platoon player.

awh - Wasn't a bad article but what is most disconcerting is that every single closer who signed a deal over $10M AAV failed to deliver the goods except Rivera and Papelbon & none of those multi-year deals (Lidge, KRod, Nathan, Cordero, Wagner, Wood) worked out well.

"If there is a deeper meaning to be inferred from the Pineiro signing, the inference that this poster would draw is that the Phillies have real doubts about whether Blanton is healthy enough to be a useful starter this year."

I mentioned that yesterday, bap.

I wondered whether those doubts were passed on to the Piniero people as an inducement for him to sign. OTOH, as some have said...what is may be all there is.

In the old days, pitchers with command of three or more pitches became starters. Those with only one or two pitches became relievers. Rubber armed relievers with a good fast ball or some trick pitch became the closers. Now with the "save" and "hold" stats, theses guys became 7th, 8th or 9th inning specialists and their salaries became hyper inflated. Is Papelbon worth the money? No, but neither is Ryan Madson worth the money he got from Cincy.

PHinBk: That certain "intangible clutch execution" is sometimes known as "good luck."

Even a great pitcher has a bad game once in awhile. Sometimes that bad game happens at exactly the wrong time.

Rubber armed relievers with a good fast ball or some trick pitch became the closers.

Go back far enough, they were first known as "firemen". Tug McGraw was a fireman, not a closer.

Joel Pineiro on a minor league deal? What's not to like. A good low risk, moderately high reward signing.

Speaking of low cost veteran pitchers- has anyone given Moyer a spring training invite?
Haven't seen anything on him recently.

clout, true dat.

Reds sign Dioner Navarro to a minor league deal.

If he sticks in the bigs, he gets 800K + 200 in incentives.

His slash line the last 2 years:

.193/.274/.297


Schneider's line the last 2 years:

.208/.297/.320


I guess that's the difference between a MLB and MiL deal.

Interesting note:

Both catchers involved in teh December 10, 2008 swap between the Pirates and Phillies - Ronny Paulino and Jason Jaramillo - are both still hanging out there and have not been signed.

Paulino's line the last 2 years:

.263/.311/.353


Schneider must be awfully good defensively.

Bubba: I read that Moyer had been invited to ST by the Padres, but his name isn't listed on their home page.

awh - You had a typo. Here is how it should look:

"Schneider must be awful defensively"

MG, if the sarcasm didn't come through properly, I sincerely apologize.

It did. I was just being a smarta$$. Schneider stinks & is likely to spend at least 3-4 weeks on the DL.

The only way that resigning Schneider though was really a terrible signing is he is deemed so useless by Cholly again that he doesn't even finish games he starts on Chooch's off-days.

It will be recalled that Schneider was the guy who figured out that Worley's previously little-used 2-seamer is actually a plus pitch. He later shared this discovery with management, most of his teammates, and the entire Philadelphia sports media. In fact, the only guy in Philadelphia who still doesn't know that Worley's 2-seamer is a plus pitch is Carlos Ruiz. Schneider purposefully kept this information from Ruiz, so that he could keep his gig as Worley's personal catcher & convince RAJ that it was necessary to re-sign him for that same role in 2012.

BAP, funny, but is the first part actually true? Curious. There is probably some truth in the last sentence as well...Rube must have thought Schneider's rapport with the staff was worth a couple ticks of OBP from the bench catcher spot.

I think there's just no point theorizing about Worley. The key is really his K/9 and K/BB, and you just have no way to know whether his control and ability to fool batters, both of which were good last year, are going to stick around.

clout- thanks

frumpis, my bet is that the pitch will continue to fool LHH, though not to the degree that it fooled them in 2011.

BTW, I was worried at one point that Worley a candidate for the Verducci Effect.

IP (combined MiL & MLB):

2009 - 153.1
2010 - 171
2011 - 182.1

Looks like they've been keeping a pretty good handle on his IP.

According to Verducci he ought to be able to toss 200 IP this season with no ill effects next year.

(200 IP from the #4? Hey, a guy can dream.)

fumphis: The first sentence is true. And, no doubt the Phillies believe Schneider has rapport with pitchers -- particularly Worley. I just happen to believe that the idea of catcher-pitcher rapport is analogous to the "intangible clutch execution" talent that someone referred to in an earlier post. Which is to say: it's a crock.

Here's a 2012 wish list item:

IP for the top 4 starters:

Halladay - 235
Lee - 235
Hamels - 215
Worley - 200

If that happens those 4 guys eat 885 innings, leaving 573 innings (not counting extra inning games) for the other 8 pitchers on the staff.

If whatever combo they trot out at #5 can eat another 150 innings they'll be in excellent shape.

To compare, in 2011 Phillies' SP tossed 1067.2 innings.

Moyer offered minor league deal by Rockies.

Schoenfield gives a history of the 5 best players in baseball for running 5 year periods.........based on total "WAR, what is it good for".

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19930/five-best-players-in-baseball-a-history


Two Phillies are on the list, Schmidt and Utley.

The list really confirms that when a all-time list is put together of the best player ever at any position, when the Third Baseman has his name written in, they might as well write Schmidt's name with ink.

It's criminal - yes, criminal - that he ever got booed at home.

Funny timing. Bubba asks about him and, a short time later, MLBTR says he has been offered a minor league deal by the Rockies.

I don't know if Moyer is still capable of doing his thing, but it's hard for me to imagine a ballpark that would be less conducive to his pitching style than Coors Field. On the other hand, if he manages to make the team, I do not at all look forward to having to face him. I have no doubt whatsoever that he would absolutely flummox the Phillies' lineup.

Damn, i was hoping moyer would get a ST invite to Clearwater. Yea i doubt he could help the team, but will always root(route(sp?)) for him to do well.

bap & awh- agree the timing is funny & I'm glad Jamie at least got some interest.
If he wasn't going to be back with the Phils I kind of pictured him on the other coast.
I had seen a Seattle rumor in early Dec. , clout thought SD, Denver is a odd fit.
Also agree he will give the Phils fits, given the chance.
I do picture Chooch hitting him, If anybody knows his stuff-it's ought to be his ex-catcher.

I could totally see Moyer as an effective 5th starter who has an ERA around 4.5-5.0. I could see him giving a team 150 innings at that level too.

I could totally see Moyer as an effective 5th starter who has an ERA around 4.5-5.0. I could see him giving a team 150 innings at that level too.

Moyer was absolutely destroyed in both of his career starts in Coors field...FWIW.

11 ER in 11 IP there.

I could see Moyer being awful.

So could I...but I could also see him being an okay 5th starter. Either way, I love that he's giving it another go.

As a funny aside, 14 of the players on the Rockies' roster weren't born when Jamie debuted in 1986.

That's the 40 man Rockie roster, of course

Jamie Moyer Lives!

But Moyer pitched well in game 3 of the 07 NLDS at Coors so there is reason for hope.
Who says there are no 4th acts in American lives?

I understand that the Rockies are considering new uniforms, too:

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=baseball+geezer&hl=en&gbv=2&biw=1093&bih=496&tbm=isch&tbnid=GbPECOt8pFGTlM:&imgrefurl=http://www.zazzle.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-233392428423264018&docid=t0FgGIpCO6hnsM&itg=1&imgurl=http://rlv.zcache.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-p233392428423264018fdnau_400.jpg&w=400&h=400&ei=mogVT9HzNvC-0QHdzuiABw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=242&vpy=137&dur=633&hovh=225&hovw=225&tx=143&ty=125&sig=102638169071081127892&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=118&start=0&ndsp=11&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0">http://www.zazzle.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-233392428423264018&docid=t0FgGIpCO6hnsM&itg=1&imgurl=http://rlv.zcache.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-p233392428423264018fdnau_400.jpg&w=400&h=400&ei=mogVT9HzNvC-0QHdzuiABw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=242&vpy=137&dur=633&hovh=225&hovw=225&tx=143&ty=125&sig=102638169071081127892&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=118&start=0&ndsp=11&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0">http://www.google.com/imgres?q=baseball+geezer&hl=en&gbv=2&biw=1093&bih=496&tbm=isch&tbnid=GbPECOt8pFGTlM:&imgrefurl=http://www.zazzle.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-233392428423264018&docid=t0FgGIpCO6hnsM&itg=1&imgurl=http://rlv.zcache.com/geezer_embroidered_cap_hat_embroidered_hat-p233392428423264018fdnau_400.jpg&w=400&h=400&ei=mogVT9HzNvC-0QHdzuiABw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=242&vpy=137&dur=633&hovh=225&hovw=225&tx=143&ty=125&sig=102638169071081127892&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=118&start=0&ndsp=11&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0

Godfather, I thought I'd stir the pot up a little today.

While I don't expect he'll be able to repeat it, this will give you an idea of wxactly how good Worley was againt LHH in 2011:

Another RHP had these numbers againt LHH during an historic season:

.219/.275/.292, 482 PA


Worley vs LHH in 2011:

.201/.271/.299, 275 PA

Worley cannot be compared to the gentleman above because with 207 less PA/against the achievement doesn't compare in magnitude. However, it's still pretty impressive.


Besides, Worley went .272/.336/.439 vs. RHB in 278 PA

whereas the gentleman above

went .160/.203/.197 vs. RHB in 679 PA

during the season he posted the numbers against LHP.

So, Worley's achievement is impressive though not nearly on the scale and magnitude of Bob Gibson, who actually l0st 9 games that season, 1968.


It may very well be that in order for Worley to maintain some semblance of success he'll have to improve a bit against RHB.

Worley's 2 seamer was a great pitch last year. However, will opposing hitters continue to take it for called third strikes going forward and if they adjust, will he be nearly as effective. IIRC, Worley had one of the highest called third strike rates in the majors last year thanks to that 2 seamer curling back onto the plate.

Hamels signed a 1 year, $15 million deal today.

Zolecki-
"Phillies and Hamels agree on a one-year, $15 million deal to avoid salary arbitration"
Good.

Hamels 1 year $15 mil

"good"? Please explain.

Padres are sending 11 players to salary arbitration. I saw its a league high this year, but that sounds like a possible all-time high to me.

I think the Hamels deal is good in the fact that the Phils and his agent can work out a deal. Always a good sign for the future.

The Phillies can now draft up that 4 year, $75 million extension for him to sign on Day 2 of the season and keep us under the luxury tax.

Make it happen, Rube!

Up next: Hunter Pence.

Everything that Hamels, his people and Ruben have said makes it sound like this is a formality while they work on a longer deal. The only panic that I have heard has been on BL.

Also agreed with Valdez today. No terms announced yet.

I think not "good" would need more explaining. The last few weeks the whole debate around here is the value of team control and Amaro's tendency to jump the gun. Wouldn't extending Hamels beyond 2012, at this point, be an example of jumping the gun?

I wouldn't mind locking down Hamels now, but there's no risk is going one year unless you think Hamels would be willing to sign a cheaper deal now than he would, say, at mid-season or a bit later. Not sure there's reason to be so pessimistic to think this move decreases the chances of a long-term deal.

NEPP, exactly. Is Worley's 2-seamer destined to be a pitch like Madson's and Hamels' changeup, or like the 'out' pitch from a lot of guys?

The problem for a LHH is that he starts it at the hip, and it comes back to catch the inside corner. How long does it take to recognize it?

Doesn't he throw a 4-seamer as well? As long as he continues to use that by tossing it inside to LHH to set up the 2-seamer, if a batter cannot recognize the difference then maybe he'll be OK.

What I'm interested in seeing is whether he can improve his results against RHB, which weren't great. Will he try to paint the outside corner with his 2-seamer by making it look off the plate to RHB? Will he throw it towards the inside part of the plate in order to have it tail into their hands and jam them?

Worley's sophmore season is going to be one of the more interesting stories for the 2012 Phillies.

How will hitters try to adjust and how will he adjust to them?

Hamels 15 million avoids arb. Valdez too.

****Wouldn't extending Hamels beyond 2012, at this point, be an example of jumping the gun?****

When you consider the amount of interest he would get on the open market next winter, getting him under contract on a fair deal would make more sense now than later. The Yankees, for example, could and would blow us out of the water next year as could at least a dozen other clubs that would probably give him closer to Lee/Sabathia money under the right circumstances. The Dodgers under new ownership would probably love to make a run at him too.

This is one of those circumstances where it makes sense to lock him up early...unlike Howard where it made ZERO sense to lock him up long-term 2.5 years before his contract expired.

When I say I wouldn't extending Hamels now, I really mean I'd love it if they did. Phils are committing at least $67M to Doc, Lee, Hamels, and Blanton (about $70M if you include Kendrick). Not many reasons to think FO isn't more than willing to spending $55-70M on the big 3 through 2014.

Wow, $15MM for Cole. Of course, other players have been exceeding the mlbtr arbitration projections so I guess we shouldn't be surprised.

Besides, this is what he's done the last 2 seasons:

64 GS, 424.2 IP, 26 - 20, 2.92 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.86 K/BB, 136 ERA+.

That's almost as good as Cliff Lee (and waaay better at this stage of his career.)

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE OFFENSE?!?!?!?

Wow Valdez got $930K.

Vaaldez deal: 93K.

NEPP - Fair point. It's definitely different than the Howard situation, but that's also why I made a point of saying that I don't see many reasons to see this deal as having a lot to do with the possibility of going long-term (although you could be pessimistic and think so). It's true that it would make more sense in this case, but I still have a hard time seeing a one-year deal as bad. It's in neither parties' interest to come to a longer agreement before the season starts.

.

Based on what he's doenOops, 930K.


Redburb, he was projected to get about 900. Based on what he's done the last 2 years as a UT, it's about right.

awh - Seems high when you can probably get the same production out of a guy on the LHV roster.

If Exxon got $930K, we can assume Mini Mart is in the minors...that said, does Mini Mart even qualify to start SS in Reading (as Galvis is a lock in AAA).

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