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Wednesday, January 11, 2012


bbeard: "let's not jump to the conclusion that Paplebon means no Hamels long term. Likely not the case."

You are right, there is no way to know. But I find it very plausible that Hamels and Phils could be within $40M of each others offers, which is what the difference between what Papelbon and Madson are guaranteed.

Great so they can draft another Hewitt much earlier.

It's all a crapshoot, but less so that high in the draft. If you're picking that high, it's possible the Phils could get the "best" player at a given position.

I love that the Phils are drafting so high... hopefully they can target a position player in the draft that can rise quickly and supplement what is a strong group of arms in the minors.

As far as the Madson/Papelbon signings, it seems clear that Amaro needs some help in learning how to read the market. Hopefully he learned something with how he handled the Rollins signing. I wonder if Amaro woke up this morning regretting jumping in so aggressively on paps.

Felske: Your next exit link will be your last.

yeah seriously dude, just put the url in your name it leave it be.

Glad that draft comp mess is finally settled. Rube's a genius. He can get Madson back at the deadline when the Reds flounder for a pair of 20th rounders.

Both Ruben and Our Chief have True Grit in negotiations.

Bump up in draft picks is nice but I have strong feeling that people are going to look back on this offseason as the year that Amaro gambled for 1 more chance at a championship, came up short, and tied his hands too much with a number of veteran commitments through '15 in the process.

From Jim Callis at Baseball American (retweeted by Crashburn Alley):

#Phillies get sandwich & 2nd-rder for Madson going to #Reds. As of now, those would be picks 38 & 72. #mlbdraft

MG: That post is soooo MG.

Sorry fellas, didn't realize it was that big a deal. No problem.

How is Rube a genius for giving out a 4/$50M deal (possibly a 5-yr) deal to Papelbon? It was an overpay pure and simple. Just hope that Papelbon keeps his blemish free injury history.

JRoll resigning was almost inevitable because he had the Phils over a barrel unless they really gambled on someone like Furcal. Didn't quite get the AAV per year he wanted but essentially did get that 4th year @ $11M which was what the whole contract stalemate was really about all along. Probably about as good as Amaro was going to do with it.

sifl: I was about to say same thing.

JW: Aren't the top 15 pick sprotected, i.e. can't get a pick 1-15 through free agency comp.

Madson was a type A FA, why wouldn't they get the #1 pick?

As for the draft-pick swap, I wrote this weeks ago and it is still true...For nothing but cash the Phils upgraded at closer, moved up almost 20 spots in the first round, and gained a 2nd round pick. Committing huge dollars to a closer may not be the best way to go, but if they were going to sign Madson or Papelbon to a big contract either way, signing Papelbon was the MUCH smarter move.

lorecore - new CBA changed protected picks to top 10, IIRC.

Boras is removing all chairs from the Reds locker room as we speak.

JW, conflicting reports in twitterverse say they get the 38th and 72nd pick, not the 14th. Who's right?

I think the twitterverse is correct, unfortunately.

MG has looked into his crystal ball and predicted the Phils will not win another championship with this group. Good to know I can ignore them for at least the next 4 years.

Madson is a nice signing for the Reds. Upgrade from Francisco last year and they have made a strong push this offseason in a division where 90 wins could well take the division.

Reds were 79-83 but their expected wins was 83-79 & with the upgrades they made they will be the favorites in the NL Central next year although I am sure some people will pick the Cards.

Pirates/Cubs/Astros will all win 75 games or less again next year. Reds need to greatly improve their 25-23 mark vs. those 3 teams though to win the NL Central. Its going to be a bad division though again with only 2 teams likely above .500 again.

Yo new correction and retraction.

Iceman - It pretty much is there year or bust for this group given the contract situation & age of players.

Good thing for the Phils is that there doesn't appear to be another really strong team in the NL again this year. Just getting out of the NL East will be tougher than it has been since there run began since '07.

It is going to be really fun to watch the NL East this year. I am actually looking forward to the litany of games they play vs. Nats/Fish this year even with 19 games on hand vs. each one.

The number of protected first-round picks changes from the top 15 to the top ten. I don't know if this change is in effect now or goes into effect next year.

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