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Monday, January 09, 2012

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During his playing years he didn't need to be a Phillie killer...the Phil's front office had that covered.

The guy who voted for Eric Young, and the two guys who voted for Brad Radke, ought to be hauled before a Congressional sub-committee and forced, under oath, and for all the country to see, to explain the reasoning behind their votes.

Terry Mulholland and HOF ballet:

If it was for HOF Pick-off moves to 1B, then Mulholland would be a first-ballot HOF.

He's the best Phils' starter I can remember the last 20-25 years at picking runners off 1st.

Barry Larkin = Laynce Nix

Mulholland probably had the best pickoff move of *anyone* over the past twenty-five years, bar none. Better than Pettitte, better than anyone. His stolen-bases-against statistics are otherworldly.

I'd bet $5 that the folks who voted for Radke are either from (a) Minneapolis or (b) Radke's hometown paper. It's somewhat embarrassing to get shut out and it's not like Radke is going to get to 5% to stay on the ballot, so why not throw a garbage vote his way? This wasn't a year that demanded all ten slots on the ballot for deserving candidates, so why not get creative before next year's deluge?

Well-deserved for Larkin. He was the best SS of his generation, a WS champion, and team leader. That pretty much explifies what a HOFer should be.

Really, though, when facing an icon like Don Carman, you just close your eyes and hope.

Dynamic ticket pricing:

Phils really haven't done much of this at all but other teams including the Pirates have.

"Rather than developing proprietary pricing models, clubs in the United States, where the trend has been the most pronounced, have mainly opted to outsource their pricing. So far, the market leader has been Qcue, founded by Barry Kahn, an economist, which says it sells 85% of dynamically priced tickets. Digonex, which also offers pricing services to hotels and car parks, has also secured a number of high-profile clients.

Of the big North American sports, the fastest to adapt has been Major League Baseball (MLB), mainly because it has the highest game-to-game variation in demand. Baseball teams rotate their starting pitchers every five days, causing fans to choose specific matchups in order to see a particularly interesting hurler. And since they play outdoors almost every day, the weather and day of the week can lead to big swings in interest. Demand can also change dramatically over the course of the season. Since less than a quarter of MLB teams enter the post-season tournament in October, the stakes for games in late September that determine which clubs will make it are extremely high.

As a result, just three years after the San Francisco Giants became the first MLB team to offer seats with no set face value, over half the game’s clubs are using dynamic pricing. According to Mr Kahn, the impact on teams’ bottom lines has been substantial. By adjusting the price of a given seat by as much as five or six times over, they have been able to raise full-price attendance by 15% and total ticket revenue by 30%"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2012/01/sports-ticketing

Rockies (who I guess were the supposed frontrunners in the "Lidge sweepstakes") are out of it now.

He's going to be back in red pinstripes in 2 weeks if the price is right.

What would be the right price for Lidge, circa 2012? His K-rate was good last year, but he never seemed to have command of his fastball and his slider at the same time. I could see him reeling in 1 yr / $5 MM somewhere, but maybe I'm misreading the market.

Dan - My bet is around $1-$1.5M base with decent incentive upside.

while the Phillies haven't delved into the dynamic pricing yet... they are on the other side...

heading to Spring Training this march... and will be taken in a game at the orioles facility (tix not on sale yet) and Phillies games are considered "Prime Games" (along with the Yankees and Red Sox). Its just a 2 dollar premium. But interesting nonetheless.

I would imagine as the Phillies approach the luxury tax they will head towards this path...

MG - I agree. I think he stays a Phillie if they can pull that deal off.

If they do re-sign Lidge, they might as well just give him another 3 years, $36M just for old times' sake.

How about a minor league invite for Lidge with a ticket to major league Spring Training. Because if they pay him more than the minimum, they're overpaying.

I would rather them go ahead and overpay Kerry than watch Lidge or Big Truck, or perhaps a call to Mark Prior is in order.

Jroll's career stats trajectory, outside of batting average, are not that far off from Larkin's.

Re: HOF projections

I've long contended that a player makes his HOF case in his 30s. Loads of players project as HOFers through about 32-32 but it's the ones that don't age that make it. It's what puts Kent in and kept Baerga out. It's waht will decide if Rollins and Utley get much consideration.

Re: Dynamic Pricing
I'm not a fan. For obvious reasons. I'm poor and I like baseball. I get why teams do it. I first ran into it when I went to New Shea Stadium to see the Phillies play the Mets and discovered that our guys were on some gold tier of games costing 20% more. Lame.

***Jroll's career stats trajectory, outside of batting average, are not that far off from Larkin's.***

Through Age 32:

Larkin: .298 AVG/.369 OBP/.451 SLG
Rollins: .272 AVG/.329 OBP/.432 SLG

Mind you, Jimmy played his peak years in a more offensive era than Larkin (who was in his peak in the early 90s.)

I haven't looked up the numbers on runs per game but the mid 90s weren't exactly the dead ball era. Larkin's early-mid 20s were obviously in a less hitter friendly era than Rollins' were but it's debateable what we want to call peak years. 25-31? Also, one could argue that Larkin's post peak years were in a much more hitter friendly era than Rollins' post peak years will be.
All that said, Larkin was a better player than Rollins but that doesn't mean there isn't room for Rollins in the conversation. We'll have to see how the next 4 years go.

NEPP: the voters love counting stats, not just ratios, Look at the stats for the already enshrined: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofstss.shtml

By the end of Rollins' new, four-year contract, I think he could have these career totals:
@2,500 hits,
475+ doubles,
115 triples,
230 HRs, and
450+ SBs.

With those numbers, Rollins might be a little light for the HOF. If he is able to hang on for another two-three years beyond his current contract and be productive, I think he makes it.

Rollins has been relatively healthy throughout his career, and, when healthy, his performance has been consistent (other than his MVP year). Rollins needs continued good health until age 40 to make it.

It's a longshot.

Jbird - I agree with you that HOF voters traditionally have based their votes on counting stats. I also think that, if Rollins gets in, it will be based on his counting stats.

OTOH, it will be another 10-15 years before Rollins becomes eligible for admission. The then-new generation of voters may be more interested in a different set of stats to determine who is HOF-worthy.

I just saw some Larkin highlights on the news and as much as astro turf was awful, there was something great about a guy playing shortstop on it. It just looks awesome.

derek: those numbers would make him 8th for hits, 3rd in homeruns, 6th in stolen bases among the already enshrined. He's a better ppower-speed combo than anyone else currently in the hall at shortstop.

Bottom line: If JRoll stays healthy he has a decent shot at the HOF.

Rollins will also be judged against the wave of good-to-excellent shortstops that were at least partially his contemporaries and are not yet in the hall.

Though he probably ends up having a better career than Nomar, something I wouldn't have believed possible ten years ago.

Unikruk - agree. Alan Trammel is one, and he's been climbing in voting the past few years after some ups and downs:

from wikipedia: 15.7% (2002), 14.1% (2003), 13.8% (2004), 16.9% (2005), 17.7% (2006), 13.4% (2007), 18.2% (2008), 17.4% (2009), 22.4% (2010), 24.3% (2011) and 36.8% (2012)

Trammel was the better hitter, but with a few productive years Rollins will end up with better counting stats.

Just noticed BB-Ref has the most similar player through each age, and for Rollins' ages 29-32, the most similar in each year is Trammel.

I just came across this:

If you eliminate a couple of 19th century pitchers, Hamels and Halladay are fifth and sixth, respectively, in career K/BB.

Our old friends, Schilling and Pedro, are one-two.

I saw on the MLB network that Wood will make his decision by Friday. Cubs seem to be collecting players named Wiood. Can Wilbur still throw that knuckler?

Wood too

BB Ref most similar does not take era in context.

BB:K ratio (approx.)
Larkin 9:8 !!!
Rollins 2:3

Barry Larkin is the role model for Jimmy Rollins, Jimmy just doesn't know it. :)

Edmundo, you're right about the different offensive eras. As I said, Trammel was the better hitter (as was Larkin).

If Trammell had stayed healthy, he'd be a HoFer. As it stands, he will never get in. His % is way too low after 11 years of eligibility. At best, he'll be a veteran committee guy in 10-15 more years.

Trammell is the definition of a border-line candidate. Did many things well, no single eye-popping number, career and seasons shortened by many injuries.

There's a guy here whose HOF chances will be similar to Trammell's, I fear. :(

I always thought Whitaker should have gone in. He was close, if not as good as Alomar (depending on what you felt about Alomar's fielding). He was a one and done.

Lou Whitaker is right there with Dwight Evans for the "WTF were the voters thinking" in that first year of eligibility. Not saying either is a sure thing HOFer but I was shocked neither got any real support.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1011411,1013846

A fun comparison of non-HOF 2B Lou Whitaker and revered HOF 2B Ryne Sandberg

Even if you go by B-R.com WAR:

Whitaker: 69.7 WAR
Sandberg: 62.0 WAR

Whitaker also had a higher WAR than Roberto Alomar...FWIW.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=860,1011411,1013846,1679

Another interesting WARgraph:

Whitaker
Sandberg
Alomar
Utley

And with Utley and Bobby Grich, the other overlooked 2B-man.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1011411,1679,1013846,1005033

And, the fact that Witaker fell off so quickly tells you a lot about why Trammell has had trouble getting traction. Rollins will get extra credit for his MVP award and if Philly remains a part of the Red Sox-Yankees-Phillies triumvirate of competitiveness 10 years from now, a boy can dream, then he'll get a bump for playing for a perennial contender in a large East Coast City. Jimmy's counting stats are going to be right in line with his position's HoF entrants. OBP is important but it shouldn't be the only thing that determines who should and should not be enshrined.

Meant to put this on this thread instead of last one.

In the favor of James R. -

The Phils have become a major team in the new millenium, during his time. He's part of the team that's dominated the NL during his stay and been intrumental, both offensively and defensively, in that accomplishment. He has been an outspoken team leader, as well, known for audacious predictions and ostentatious performance. He will get the benefit of the doubt for those reasons.

Acting against him will be the larger than normal number of offensively minded shortstops in this era. One might want to add to the big four mentioned (including the PED-influenced A-Rod and T-jad), people like JoseJoseJose and HanRam. His borderline numbers will have to compete with those guys, too.

He's got a shot, but he's no sure thing. Given his era and his accomplishments, Larkin was almost a no-brainer.

I think Trammell and Whitaker should go in on one plaque. Count them as a double play combo not individual players. They are one of the best ever.

Rollins might also get a little writer love for his personality. It won't put him over the top but combine that with turning the Phillies into winners and his percentages could be higher than some expect.

The best way for Rollins to get HoF consideration is to lead the Phils to a few consecutive WFC's.

I think we can all get behind that approach.

Jbird, then Trammell should be getting extra credit for his (arguable more deserved) MVP and the great run of the Tigers in the 80s.

No one is saying OBP is the only determinant. But OBP > HRs, SBs, hits, runs, etc. With a mediocre OBP, I want to see some offsetting eye-popping numbers. I don't see them with Rollins.

He needed a couple more GGs to have a serious shot based on his "glove". Yeah, we all know GGs are a joke but in reality, it matters to the voters and with Tulo entrenched in Colorado, Jimmy wont be winning another one.

NEPP - The interesting part for me in those fangraph charts is how of the four guys, Utley has five out of the best 8 seasons WAR wise. If he crecovers from his recent couple of years to any semblence of his old self, and is able to continue his career for, say, four more, he will look pretty good.

Ah. Tulo. Him too. Jimmy plays in the era of Tulo as well.

I think Utley has a chance at the HoF just based on his peak years...assuming he has a graceful decline in his 30s of course.

His peak was elite and he was considered one of the best players in the game for a 4-5 year period.

***Ah. Tulo. Him too. Jimmy plays in the era of Tulo as well.***

Which will kill him with voters as Tulo is better offensively and defensively.

Jimmy will have the misfortune of playing the first half of his career alongside Jeter and the second half of his career alongside Tulo for comparison.

Move over Lou Whitaker...another guy needs to sit down on that Bench of Very Good Non-HOF players.

By far the best Phils' player with a shot at the hall is Halladay. He's at 188 wins already and probably had a good chance to end up with somewhere north of 250 wins. Probably 260-270 range.

Already has 2 Cy Youngs (1 in both leagues) with a decent chance to grab another one in the next year or two. Ditto the 8 All-Star nods. Probably can increase that to 10 maybe even 11.

Tulo is great but I still think there is and will be a bias against Colorado position players. A guy almost has to leave Coors and put up 5 good years to validate his Coors numbers. Also there a re a million HOFers at 27 who aren't by the time they hit 32. So Tulo may or may not work against Rollins. If Tulo fades or never does anything away from Coors, Jimmy may remain the defining NL SS of his era. Same for Reyes with injuries.

Edmundo: so for you, a guy like Edgar Martinez should be in based on his .418 obp despite only having 308 homeruns and not playing a position in the field? Or maybe Jason Giambi and his .404 obp or Nick Johnson and his .401? Brian Giles & Larry Walker and their .400? Bobby Abreu and his .397? I don't think any of those guys should get in.

Rollins is a shortstop and compared to other shortstops his numbers are "eye-popping". He's on the cusp and really how this contract plays out will determine if he does or he doesn't belong. If he sputters along playing 120 games a year with injuries and ineffectiveness he won't moake it. If he strings together a couple seasons like last year, I think he will.

***By far the best Phils' player with a shot at the hall is Halladay. He's at 188 wins already and probably had a good chance to end up with somewhere north of 250 wins. Probably 260-270 range. ***

The only problem with that is that he'd go in wearing a BlueJays hat.

Oh yeah Halladay is the closest thing to a lock. Then I'd say Cole has the best chance becasue he has the most years ahead of him. After that Utley and Rollins have outside shots depending what they do over the next 4 years. Same for Howard but sluggers really need high HR totals and he started so late and played opposite Pujols. I'm not betting on any of our position players.

Tulo is a career .808 OPS hitter away from Coors...a number that still puts him over 40 points higher than Rollins despite ignoring the fact that pretty much every hitter does better at home compared to on the road.

Also, I think Doc could retire right now and probably still make it into the HOF.

Yep -- I agree with MG on this one. Halladay is the current member of the team with the best HOF shot.

Utley is going to need a few more 130 OPS+ years to make it, and 2B is a position where people have not historically aged well. I'm concerned he's going to get 'Grich-ed' in the public memory.

Jimmy's only hope for HOF consideration is if he can get to a statistical milestone, and the only one he really has a shot at is 3,000 hits. He's at 1866 going into this season, so he'd need 150 hits a year until he's 40, which isn't too terribly likely. He's been an above-average offensive and defensive shortstop for a long time, but not good enough at either to get HOF attention. He does have a seat in the Hall of the Very Good waiting for him, though.

I'm not saying Tolu puts up Coors inflated #s but there are voters who will see 30 homers at Coors and say it's 20 anywhere else. They'll see .300 BA and say it's .280 somewhere else. It could work against him. Larry Walker never gets a ton of Hall consideration.

"The only problem with that is that he'd go in wearing a BlueJays hat"

As of right now, he would. If he pitches 4 more years at a HOF-level for the Phils and wins a WFC? I'd say he goes in as a Phil then.

According to MLBTR says Wood is probably leaving Chicago. Phills still in on him.

Dan: the stats for hall of fame shortstops are no where near what they are for other positions. Jimmy's hits, homeruns, and sb's will all slot into the upper echelon of enshrined shortstops. Here's the list:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofstss.shtml

"Move over Lou Whitaker...another guy needs to sit down on that Bench of Very Good Non-HOF players."

That should be a large bench anyway.

Eric Bruntlett will make the Hall's Rainout Section for sure.

The batting statistics are reduced, sure -- but there's a distinct 'defense' track and a distinct 'offense' track to making the HoF as a SS. Guys like Ozzie Smith, Aparicio, Maranville, and Rizzuto were on the defense track (and Rizzuto gets war credit, as well). Banks, Vaughan, Ripken, Cronin et al were offense track.

Jimmy's problem is that he's on neither -- he's been solidly above-average (for a SS) at both facets of the game, but truly outstanding at neither. That makes his case similar to Trammell, and as Bill James has argued, it's generally better to be great at one thing than good at many when it comes to HOF voting.

***Rizzuto were on the defense track (and Rizzuto gets war credit, as well).***

So if Jimmy becomes a Yankees announcer for a bunch of years, his HOF chances go up?

Jbird, did you even read what I wrote?

No one is saying OBP is the only determinant.

Obviously you were being "funny" with the Nick Johnson mention.

Jimmy Rollins will have some interesting quantity, but not HOF quality. A good to very good glove (although some metrics aren't so sure) with a 97 OPS+ (which is likely to go down a notch).***

If you aren't at least giving a serious look to Edgar Martinez (a great offensive player -- more than just an OBP machine) and Larry Walker (ditto plus good defense), then you either have a dollhouse HOF (how does Rollins fit in there?) or you are just not looking at all the candidates with an open mind.

I don't think Edgar should go in (I have a high DH penalty, FWIW and his cumulative stats aren't THAT impressive) and I am on the fence with Walker (staying healthy is a factor).

*** Now if you were to tell me that the Phils had Jimmy Rollins-Clone sitting in the minors ready for the show in 2015, I would be overjoyed.

Regardless of what he did against the Phillies in his day, Larkin could play some ball. Remember watching him in the first major league game I ever attended as a kid, he hit a home run. Astros vs. Reds at Cinergy Field. Memories....

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