Watch: Amaro, Manuel optimistic J-Roll era will last

Beerleaguer: Exciting time to sit and observe and do no real reporting; Jim Salisbury and John Finger are at the Winter Meetings and broke news today that special adviser Pat Gillick, in Pat Gillick style, personally met with Aramis Ramirez a month ago in the Dominican Republic. The free agent third baseman appears to be the Phillies' contingency plan in case the Phils can't retain Philadelphia's longest-tenured player.

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a major turning point in free agency, marking the day free agents must accept or decline arbitration. That's huge for the Phils since Ryan Madson could actually decide to accept the Phils' offer and test free agency next winter. The closer market is drying up, with a handful of teams, including the Blue Jays today, filling their ninth-inning vacancies.

Once the Phils are clear of their pending commitments - no small potatoes in Madson's case - they could become more competitive in their offer to Rollins. Just a thought. Right now, it seems to be a two-horse race between the Brewers and Phillies and the team that offers him five years will win.

Comments

[nonamePHame]

#MysteryTeam

[Andy]

Go 'head Sign'em all.
You heard me right, buddy boy.
It's not MY money.

[Elephant in the room]

What is the % that Madson accepts arb.?

[nonamePHame]

0% chance Madson accepts with Boras.

[NEPP]

If Madson actually had a 4 year, $44 million offer on the table and Boras shopped it as is rumored...he really screwed his client big time.

[nonamePHame]

So true NEPP. Madson doesn't get anything close to that if BoSox trade for Bailey.

[SLO Phan]

Looks like K-rod is going to decline his option (Boras client), so I would think that Madson will be advised to decline his option as well.

The next 24 hours are going to be really interesting.

[SLO Phan]

Sorry. Should be "arbitration" and not "option".

[Jack]

If Madson gets a lot less than that, then Boras looks bad, but so does Amaro.

Papelbon may be better, but if Madson signs for $35 million, is Papelbon really $17 million better? I find that hard to believe.

[The hook]

They better hope he declines. I said over a week ago he might take it. And beerleaguers said no way in hell. Hmmmmmmmm. Can Milwaukee sign Jroll so we can get aram and a stop gap. I really am sick of hearing about him. If he goes he goes so be it.

[MG]

No team is going to offer JRoll a 5-year deal. I would stake big money on that. He is going to get a nice 4-year payday from somebody though. My bet is he ends up back here in Philly at 4 yr/$56M.

[MG]

the hook - If JRoll leaves the Phils will be worse off during the regular season with a stop-gap (A Gonzalez or a trade for Bartlett) but I would argue that if they made the playoffs next year they would be better off with Madson-Papelbon.

[RK]

Let's hope they don't offer him 5 years.
Let's hope they don't offer him 4 years.
Let's hope they don't offer him 3 years.
2008 .277 .349 .437
2009 .250 .296 .423
2010 .243 .320 .374
2011 .268 .338 .399

Is there a reaosn for the farm systemother than to give away the players so theycan becoem stars elsewhere.

[Meyer]

Where's "toby" the prophetic little mouse?

[rauls grandpa]

Gillick looked him in the eye and held his hand and saw Ramirez was planning to blow up the world with nuclear weapons when he was elected President.

[MG]

Francisco signs with the Mets for 2 yrs/$12M. I wouldn't have minded seeing him either as the Phils' closer.

With the Rauch signing ($3.5M with alot of incentives) and the Ramirez trade, they have a revamped bullpen. If they keep Parnell in the bullpen & resign Bautista, Alderson has done a pretty nice job of revamping a crummy bullpen on the fly and cheaply.

[DH Phils]

clout: I think .658 OPS is probably a bit high, although I think you're overstating your case by saying Galvis' best-case scenario is John McDonald.

So how about this, for a Beerleaguer bet: contingent on Galvis getting 300 PA next year, I'll say he hits over John McDonald's career .601 OPS. Much less than the ZIPS projection, but you'll surely have no problem betting that his rookie OPS will be lower than the best career OPS than he can possibly hope for, right?

[Len39]

The Mets have done a great job at acquiring the most average bullpen possible in a couple of hours.

Here's hoping Madson takes them up on arbitration. Madson/Papelbon would be incredible. How many shutouts were there this year? I think that record would be shattered.

[cut_fastball]

Hey TTI -- Face it. The Cards won the World Series on merit. In retrospect, the Phillies hung around, expecting to glide to a win in the first round. The problem was, the Cards won way too many games based on hustle, guile and moves of a more often than not brilliant manager, way earlier than in October.

And Jack, who cares who had more extra base hits in that fateful series? The Cards scored when it counted. Manufacturing runs without the long ball (save Berkman in Game 1) works for me.

Seriously, TTI, who picked up who with your '11 Philadelphia Phillies when it counted? Especially Clifton Phifer in game 2? You are what your record says you are. C’mon’ now, this is the reality-based community. Comical, indeed.

Jeezus, I really wish RAJ would sign somebody – anybody – or maybe Madson might get a deal. When a fan’s lament over a shot Division Series gets ripped, too many people have too much time on their hands. Including me.

[MG]

"The Mets have done a great job at acquiring the most average bullpen possible in a couple of hours."

Certainly be an upgrade over last year (ranked in NL for relievers):

0.6 WAR (15th)
4.33 ERA (15th)
4.03 xFIP (t-12th)
7.96 K/9 (10th)
3.78 BB/9 (7th)
.267 BAA (15th)
64% Save percentage (t-10th)

Going from one of the worst bullpens to even an average one would have given the Mets another 3-4 wins last year.

Still nothing to write home about but they would have probably .500 or slightly better with an average/decent bullpen.

[Len39]

MG,
I never said it wasn't an upgrade, but if I was a Mets fan there isn't too much to be happy about right now.

[MG]

Len39 - Nah. Alderson is still working on clearing out some dead wood (Santana and Bay are only signed through '13), figuring out what they have left that is worth keeping, and what pieces they have might long-term.

It will be another 2 years of .500 ball or so.

[Luis]

Say J-Roll would of been under contract up to next year. If Galvis could of shown he can AAA pitching at the clip he was hitting it this year we wouldnt be having this conversation.

[derekcarstairs]

With his performance in 2011, Galvis earned the right to be considered a legitimate future utility IF prospect.

[Justin Bieber Shoes]

Like any good University of Chicago grad, I've read a ton of Max Weber, so I like any discussion of a capitalistic work ethic. Also, a friend of Steve has returned from working in London for a year full of complaints about their lazy ways, so this topic has been dinner conversation.

[derekcarstairs]

My view on Dom Brown has changed, and I now support the Phils' apparent decision to keep him AAA for a good part of 2012.

He's still only 24 and has serious defensive flaws. So, I think another year in the minors will be good for him.

Brown already has one year of major-league service with little to show for it because of injury and mishandling by Phils' management. Rather than bring him up in 2012 when he's still raw, I'd prefer the team wait another season when he'll be a year closer to his prime and more productive.

As a baseball fan, I am as much interested in the players as i am the team. And I don't just mean the Phillies' players.

As a fan of players, I like to see them have good, long careers. I particularly enjoy players like Rollins and Hamels, who reach the majors at a young age and become major players almost immediately.

I was hoping that Brown would have been a regular by now, but that just wasn't in the cards.

[Meyer]

What's all this crazy talk about Gio Gonzalez as the future replacement for Cole Hamels?

[The Truth Injection]

When Jon Rauch was mentioned by someone on here about being a Phillie according to MG he was a guy you don't want on your team because he is largely cooked and has a crummy attitude.

but he signs as a Met and now he is a piece of a "revamped bullpen" and essentially talked about as being important. Interesting.

cut_fastball: Complaining about the NLDS loss is fine. Saying ridiculous things is another. You fall in the latter category.

[Scotch Man]

These rumors about Gio Gonzalez made me chuckle a bit, I won't lie.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

By the end of the day, I fully expect Hamels and Brown to be out, Gio, Michael Taylor and d'Arnaud to be in.

[Meyer]

I can see that move. If high speed twisting and turning is the cause of sports hernias, Ruben will earn a couple.

[The hook]

Yes can't wait for thee more years of Jroll and his half assing it down line. First pitch swinging leadoff hitter. And his great leadoff skills period. This team is gonna be awesome!!

[Muuurgh]

If Rube is serious about getting Gio... well, so much for having a future. Another problem is, if memory serves me correctly, Gio has a tendency to explode (especially against the Rangers). And yeah, Hamels ends up being dealt I'm going to be sweating it up until next year hoping that he can be reacquired using that same ol' trick...

I feel uncomfortable.

[schmenkman]

hook -- at least 4 years and maybe 5.

On the bright side:

Rollins swings at the first pitch LESS than average:

NL average 27%
Rollins career 23%
Rollins 2011 19%

Is Rollins the prototypical leadoff hitter (who you can count on the fingers of one hand, and you don't have to be el Pupe)? No. But he is the TYPICAL leadoff hitter:

Average NL leadoff hitter in 2011:
.269 BA, .331 OBP, .401 SLG (.732 OPS)

Rollins in 2011:
.268 BA, .338 OBP, .399 SLG (.736 OPS)

You would not only have to replace a leadoff hitter, but also the shortstop, and he is still an above-average shortstop offensively (NL OPS for shortstops: .688)

[Wholesale UGG Boots]

Love your list! Any list with Heath Ceramics is one worth wishing for. :) Happy Holidays!