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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

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Interesting take and the most likely scenario, unfortunately.

It never pays to start a process of negotiation with an inflexible hardline position like: "I'm getting 5 years."

I cannot even imagine how much disdain J-Roll has for Lozano and Rube now. I know he must have realized how much effort would have been put forth towards Pujols deal but J-Roll probably never thought he would get second class citizen status. Now he is going to end up with a deal he never wanted. On the other hand, maybe J-Roll was dreaming about what he could get not realizing what the market dictated.
I am on record as one of those who didn't want the Phils to sign him to a long deal and thought they should look elsewhere but it seems they may very well get him on their terms.

It would be interesting to know what the holdup is.

I agree with most of this analysis with one caveat: ANYONE would be playoing 2nd to the Albert Pujols insanity. If this is a reason to pout, then Jimmy is more of the spoiled child that Cholly has had to coddle for years.

ruben's reaction to jroll's press conference statement about a 5yr deal had to be something like "yea good luck with that jimmy"

jimmy's got to be furious with his agent and it must have escalated after deadspins post that showed lozano as sleazy agent who regularly misleads clients.

i hope it ends well for the phils and rollins but i feel animosity after whatever deal is done is inevitable.

ruben's reaction to jroll's press conference statement about a 5yr deal had to be something like "yea good luck with that jimmy"

jimmy's got to be furious with his agent and it must have escalated after deadspins post that showed lozano as sleazy agent who regularly misleads clients.

i hope it ends well for the phils and rollins but i feel animosity after whatever deal is done is inevitable.

A 3 year deal was always going to be the over/under for this deal. Maybe 2 plus vesting option if Rollins' market totally collapses. Maybe a 3+ player option/buyout if Rollins does well in the negotiation. 5 years was never realistic.

If he signs an agreement he doesn't want to sign, he'll be unhappy for a little while. Then he'll get over it, realize that he's making enormous sums of money to do something he loves doing and to play in the place where he has always played. Then the season will start and he'll do the exact same thing he'd have done if he had signed a 5-year, $100M contract -- play strong defense, steal 30 bases, hit to a .700 to .720 OPS, and take yet another run at the single-season record for first-pitch pop-ups.

I'm remain confident r00b will overpay.

BAP: I like your optimism and I largely agree with your 11:23 post. Especially: and take yet another run at the single-season record for first-pitch pop-ups.

Why would there be animosity?

From the beginning the Phillies' position has been less than 5 years.

Rollins' position is that he wants a 5-year deal.

Rollins/Lozano have tried to wait out the market and it's gotten thinner, and their leverage has shrunk.

Why is that the Phillies' fault?

If the Phillies have been negotiating in good faith from the beginning then they have done the ethical and moral thing, and Jimmy has no reason to complain. If Jimmy has been holding out in hopes of a 5-year deal, then that's the risk that he chose to take.

It's possible JRoll has a 5-year deal on the table at a low AAV, from a second division team that he really doesn't want to play for. Who knows?

But if the Phils have been forthright from the beginning about how long they're willing to go, then Jimmy has been the one who delayed things.

Maybe he'll retire and pursue his 1st passion, Justin Beiber music.

Its the 4th guaranteed year. JRoll was just talking about the '5 years' but I can imagine he thought he would definitely get 4 years at $10M+ annually guaranteed.

I would still love to see Philly pursue Asdrubal Cabrera.

If A. Ramirez took 3 years, Jimmy should too. Sorry but that's the market this year buddy.

awh: Agreed. It's highly speculative to assume there are going to be bad feelings when we have no idea how the process has gone. Besides, it's not like there's something extraordinary about the fact that Rollins remains unsigned on December 14. Many other high-profile free agents are in the same position, including Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, Michael Cuddyer, Hiroki Kuroda, not to mention Madson & Oswalt.

He'll be fine. Jimmy has been in the game a long time--he understands the business.

I'm confused about the premise here--is the idea that the more you pay a guy, the happier he must be, and thus the better he plays?

Rollins last year on the first pitch:
348/358/470
Rollins career on the first pitch:
340/343/526

Give me more first pitch swinging!

Let's see...I could sign a three-year deal, re-endear myself to a rabid fan base, earn additional guaranteed millions, cement my legacy as the best in team history, maybe win another World Series.
Or, I could move to Detroit. For whatever perceived reason.
Tough call.

CJ: Other than that stat not counting all the first pitch swings where he misses the ball, sure.

CJ never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

I agree with AWH. Jimmy is the one who elected to test the free agent waters wading out into the five year contract demand part of the pool, but he's finging out that no one likes the waters there. He'll walk back in the shorter term waters area and he will be happy that his talents still make him more money in a season than I will make in five lifetimes. If he signs with the Phillies all will be fine for both parties; if not, sayonara, buddy.

The Astros just traded Melancon to Bosox for Lowrie and a reliever Hmmmm... staying w/ Scutaro or "mystery team" for J-Roll?

Actually, I was about to say that it's usually second pitch pop-ups. I did remember that first pitches that he hits are usually pretty good. It's the most infuriating thing about Rollins. He hits the best on first pitches. Which means you want him to hit those first pitches except that means he doesn't work the count. But if he works the count, it means he doesn't hit as well.

Gaaaaahhhh...

Zudok: real estate is cheap in Detroit. I bet for $1m he could buy up half the city, demolish it, turn it into a game reserve on which he hunts the most dangerous prey of all. . . . man.

Lowrie & Weiland for Melancon is a nice little deal for the Astros. They've actually made some good moves in the last year, minus the Bourn trade. They don't really have any future super-stars, but they have some nice young talent to build around, actually.

Detroit..truly a winter wonderland.

I'm confused about the premise here--is the idea that the more you pay a guy, the happier he must be, and thus the better he plays?

I don't believe that there is a direct correlation with the premise that the more you pay a guy the better he plays. I think the issue is going to be goodwill to a player that has been a leader and a really good player for this team for a long time. I don't think Jimmy is the type to pout or not play hard because of his contract status. But he may take it as a slap in the face if he is underpaid (again). Right, wrong or indifferent, athletes are not above "getting their feelings hurt," as stupid as it sounds.

If he accepts a deal with the Phils that is less than what he believes he is worth it can still breed animosity if he believe he was, and is, being treated unfairly. Just because it was a bad business decision does not make him immune from the emotional element to it all. It's human nature.

JRoll and his agent needs at least another semi-viable team they can leverage to possibly pry loose a 4th year to Amaro.

Its a huge deal to Amaro because he already has Papelbon/Lee/Howard on the hook in '15 and I am sure he wants that additional flexibility to deal with a Hamels' extension.

I know Lowrie has struggled some, but it seems odd to trade a guy with the potential to be an everyday player for a reliever like Mark Melancon.

Who cares. I am sick of reading about Jroll is he gonna stay or go. Philles should go get Bartlett from San Diego and say " this is our option". If Jimmy wanted to stay deal would be done. It isn't so the philles should move on. We lost Aram so I don't want to wait around for this stiff.

****Zudok: real estate is cheap in Detroit. I bet for $1m he could buy up half the city, demolish it, turn it into a game reserve on which he hunts the most dangerous prey of all. . . . man. ****

Ahh, Rainsford...the most dangerous game of all.

I agree Jbird-- the Astros were selling high on Melancon.. Plus, if Brandon Lyon is healthy, he's their closer.

R. Bill: Except he's not being underpaid, if he tested the market and this is what he got.

I agree that last time he signed an extension that ended up paying him far less than what he was worth (before anyone comments, I understand the way extensions work--you take less money in order for the team to assume more risk. I get it. Please don't bother making a point about this). But this time, he became a free agent. If a team wanted to pay him $65 million over 5 years, they would have done so already.

Also, I understand the human element--there can be resentment if you aren't being paid what you think you are worth. But I trust that Jimmy is a professional, and by the time April rolls around, he will be doing what he does--play baseball.

animosity was the wrong word to use. there will be some frustration between jimmy and his agent. i think there's a chance jimmy could become frustrated, complain to his agent and then his agent tells jimmy the phils are screwing him over when in reality, the phils have handled this well.

this is obviously all speculation on my part but the articles about lozano are hard to forget.

http://deadspin.com/5861982/dan-lozano-albert-pujolss-superagent-king-of-sleaze-mountain

http://deadspin.com/5863789/checking-in-with-albert-pujolss-agent-who-threatened-to-sue-us-before-he-knew-what-we-were-going-to-write


"Plus, if Brandon Lyon is healthy, he's their closer."

This always makes me laugh.

I'm with AWH: Not sure about the animosity angle at this point.

Interesting the Sox moved Lowrie. Thought he might be a target for the Phils.

In addition to the first pitch popups, I also look forward to having back the guy who I would most like to see at the plate in the type of absolute clutch situation where an out or a hit can decide the game one way or the other. And don't take my word for it, just ask Jonathan Broxton. ;)

If Scott Boras were Jimmy's agent, I suspect he'd already have a 4/60 deal with the Orioles or some other sad sack team.

Jimmy and his agent tried to play the leverage game and are down to one team left. That leaves him little leverage. Maybe he'd be open to a one year, fourteen million dollar deal with the idea that he'd be the best FA shortstop on the market next season, after he's proven he can play a fill season without babying his legs, and without the DL. But as brashly as Jimmy always talks, I'm pretty sure he's not willing to bet on himself to that extent.

I think that's the deal Rube should be approaching him with. Let's see how confident Jimmy really is.

I give Jimmy a 2 yr deal with a 3 & 4 yr option. 3rd year kicks in if you are physically able to play 140 games in year 2. 4th year kicks in if you can play in 140 games in year 3. A nice little compromise yr 5 if you are physically able to play 135 games in year 4. NO BUYOUT clause for years 4 & 5.

I just flat out don't agree with the premise of this thread. Jimmy is not a dumb guy in spite of his last contract. Happy is a relative term. He's certainly not going to blame the Phillies for what the market clearly has stated. He might be a little upset with his agents and himself for the discount he gave them last time and want a little extra this time to make up the difference. Offer him 3 yrs with a 4th option. I'm sure he could be happier, but he'll deal with it.

1 year 14m ! play 140 games stay healhty, steal 25-30, hit .265-270, 12-18 Hrs. automatic 2cd year renew. yr. 2 that's it

takes with J-Roll the worse it is for all parties involved – especially his agent (Dan Lozano), who will be seen as having lost control of the process. I can’t imagine Jimmy is too happy with the fact that he had to play second fiddle to the Albert Pujols insanity). Players seem to believe that their agents have magic wands they can wave whenever. Not so here.

"If the Phillies sign him, it’ll be to an agreement that he didn’t want to sign - he’ll be like the divorced dad who’s happy to be gone but who lost the coveted cabin. Compromise can go one of

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