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Monday, December 05, 2011

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I see a hot day in August when Rollins is sweating balls in the late innings of a 12-3 losing effort wondering how he ended up on the Pirates on a one year flier.

Rollins for 4 years or Ramirez for 4 years? Is that what it all boils down to?

***Rollins for 4 years or Ramirez for 4 years? Is that what it all boils down to?***

If the cost is the same, I'd probably lean towards Ramirez.

That report before on Ibanez is hilarious. Raul thinks he can get a 2-year deal from an AL team? That's amazing.

It also seems to imply that there was no "wink, wink" deal on the arb offering--that Ibanez is actually going to turn down the abritration because he thinks he can get a better multi-year deal. If that's the case, his agent is quite clearly breaching his duty to give his client advice in his best interest. If he's a lawyer, he should be disbarred for not advising Raul to take the Phils' arbitration offer to the bank.

Based on Rube's track record, he has already written off any possibility of resigning Rollins and will now move heaven and earth to get Ramirez instead. He doesnt mess around...remember Clifton, the Doc trade, etc, etc.

There's gotta be a deal of some sort with Ibanez/Arbitration. I don't buy the Phillies would take a chance he would accept costing them $9mil+? Madson is a gamble worth taking. Ibanez? No.

I wouldn't go 4 years for either of them, but I actually think Rollins is the slightly better guy there. More important position, more well-rounded skillset, and I think there's a slight advantage to keeping a guy as opposed to bringing in someone new, all else being equal. Both guys have had trouble staying healthy.

That said, I could understand the Phils going with Aramis because he brings the one thing we desperately need--power.

Yoenis Cespedes is seeking a $60 million deal...yeah, I'll pass at that point.

"'I gave the Phillies a discount the first time,' Rollins told the source." http://bit.ly/uLRDyE

In four years, A-Ram's power will have declined less than Jimmy's speed/defense.

I gave the Phillies a discount the first time," Rollins told the source.

Wow, tutpsu you just beat me to it!

If that is the case, and Jimmy and Rube want to have a "sword" fight then I think Jimmy might move on. There is no way, he will get a 5 year deal!! If Ruben thinks he isn't bluffing, then he HAS to go to Plan B, which I am assuming would be A. Ramirez. Then the big question remains, who is your starting shortstop???

Yeah, A-Ram's no spring chicken, either.

Ryne Sandberg-Minor League Manager of the Year.

***"'I gave the Phillies a discount the first time,' Rollins told the source." http://bit.ly/uLRDyE***

And they gave a 93 OPS+ SS lifetime financial security. Its almost as if both sides took on some risk in that previous deal.

Enjoy Milwaukee.

tutpsu: I've read other quotes from Jimmy that said his last deal worked out for both sides. unless the AAV is significantly reduced, a 5 year deal for Jimmy makes no sense. I will be surprised if another team swoops in with a 5 year offer. Jimmy should take a 3+vesting if it's offered. Holding out for 5 doesn't seem to benefit anyone.

Didnt Sandberg win last year too? Perhaps we could find a job more suited to his talents...like MLB Bench Coach?

I understand that all good things come to an end, and that Jimmy's best days are behind him, but I still feel dismay at this news.

Hey, is Danny Tartabull still out there? Give Jimmy the money.

If Rollins thinks he can get 5 years somewhere, then more power to him. Enjoy Milwaukee or whoever would be dumb enough to do that.

As much as I want him back, Rube's right for not giving in to him. And if you add in Ramirez replacing Polanco, the offense isn't going to take a huge hit. Defensively (depending on who Rollins' replacement is) is another story.

Yeah, lets give Jimmy a 5 year deal at top dollar...what could possibly go wrong.

If Jimmy walks b/c he gets a better deal elsewhere, it's hard to find fault in that. Especially, if the Phils make a good offer that is topped.

Jimmy probably looks at the previous deals Ruben has given out and wonders why he shouldn't get the patented, "one year too long" deal that Gload, Nix, Ibanez, and Polonco got.

I'll be honest, Rollins is one of my favorite players and that won't change if this is indeed the end of the road for him as a Phillie. However, there comes a time when you just have to move on. Yes, Rollins did give a discount last time. He was also a better player. Even if his price comes down, do we really want a bitter player on the squad who didn't get what he was looking for? When I hear stuff like this, it just doesn't seem like the two sides are the match I thought they were.

Good Riddance, Jimmy...

Damn. I was looking forward to Yoga Mat Day and a seventh inning stretch led by Jimmy.

Of course it is only day 1 of the meetings.

As troubling as the Jimmy quote sounds, I want to remind you guys that it came from a "source".

We will end up with both Aramis and Jimmy.

A wise man once said, "A man has got to know his limitations."

Or was it, "You got to know what I mean. Now that's a fire!"

I would be bummed if JRoll left but he isn't getting a 5-year from anybody and he knows it too.

The question is how much a team goes on the 4 years and what if anything a team offers for an option for the 5th year.

I'd say it's a contest of who blinks first at this point. No one is going to give Rollins the same money as Jose Reyes, not for 5 years anyway.

If the Phillies are shopping Polanco, it's to get a shortstop. That makes the most sense. Question is who would trade a SS for a 2B/3B?

Tutpsu,
I believe the source is Mrs.Madson.

1 more thing:

Phillies would best be served by a 3 year deal for Rollins with a 4th as a vesting option. Reason why Rollins is demanding 5, and may be able to get away with it, is because the Phillies have no internal replacement who can supply Rollins bat. Galvis would be fine defensively, but from what I've read he's another great glove/no bat SS.

Which means you move Polanco to free up some salary and bench space, sign Ramirez as a righty Power bat, and Galvis becomes your starting SS in 2012. Ramirez's production replaces what you lose without Rollins.

I think they are shopping Polanco for salary relief. Nobody is trading anything of value for him.

Fans' almost unwaivering support of management over players is one of the oddest things in sports. The level of disdain for wealthy employees compared to wealthier bosses is fascinating.

Also, this report couldn't even nail down when the meeting happend "late Sunday or earlir Monday" but they can relay details concerning how the meeting went? I'm not buying it.

This is RAJ's grave that he dug. I'd be pissed too if I saw contract years being handed out like candy and the GM suddenly balking at my extra year. Did Polanco, Ibanez, Howard, et al. really rate their dollars and years either?

That's what everyone's said.

Jack:

It's always possible that an agent or lawyer gives advice that the client then declines to follow. Disbarring a lawyer in such circumstances seems a little extreme.

Aramis/Galvis > Polanco/Rollins?

Offensively - a push?

Defensively - don't think so

Not giving up on Jimmy yet. Sometimes a few eggs have to get broken first, but admittedly, Rube doesn't seem to like broken eggs much (Lee, Werth, Madson).

"Question is who would trade a SS for a 2B/3B?" Miami now has an extra one. They could use pitching and a upgrade at 3rd.

Trade Hamels for Starlin Castro, Sign A-Ram, then deal back polanco and dom brown for Hamels. The old swictheroo. LOL

"if I saw contract years being handed out like candy and the GM suddenly balking at my extra year"

Could be an extra 2 years, for all we know.

mm,

whuzzatchoosay?

"Aramis/Galvis > Polanco/Rollins?

Offensively - a push?

Defensively - don't think so"

Im guessing it would be more Aramis/Valdez v Polanco/Rollins

I'm curious as to how you would say that's a push offensively...especially considering Rollins continuing offensive dropoff, and Polancos health.

Defensively, yes, ramirez seems to be a butcher at 3rd. I'll take the offense and seemingly more sustainable skillset of Ramirez v Rollins. (Then again, I base my butcher comment off cursory examination of UZR, which also rates David Wright very poorly. So make of it what you will.)

Biggest plus about ARAM is that its not the same lineup that has failed us in October two years in a row. We get a real leadoff hitter now with Victorino and more pop, ss is irrelevant.

All other scenarios work themsevles out once you decied who you'd rather have for the next 4-5 years: ramirez or rollins. And i do think you have to answer that question from the offensive side more than the defensive side. It forces you to choose defense over offense at a posistion, since you can always find a good glove ss or 3b who can't hit.

You can't really look at polanco in the equation: it's a sunk cost that ends in 2013.

they can pull a cliff lee and trade hamels and just buy him in FA the next year, if they can lineup a good ss or 3b for him. Do you like the phils in 2012 without hamels though?

Besides, we all know Amaro is going to trade for Hanley Ramirez in a blockbuster, out of nowhere, "RAJ to the rescue" headlines exploding deal. So I'm fine with the Ramirez twins in the infield next year.

"Fans' almost unwaivering support of management over players is one of the oddest things in sports. The level of disdain for wealthy employees compared to wealthier bosses is fascinating."

There are tens of millions of people who also play the lotto too and do a host other completely other ridiculous economic things.

It is really envy when you come down to it. Pure and simple.

I almost never side with the owners over the players because almost everything that comes out of their mouths related to finances is either exaggerated or pure BS, they already put their hands in my pocket in many ways (e.g., publicly-funded stadiums and other taxpayer goodies) and I don't pay to see Montgomery.

My client says the Sawks are willing to move Yuk (he plays 3rd like somebody in a suit of armor) and any of their 4 SS. My client just wants to share wings and beer in the bullpen with Vic or Cole.

From what Proefrock is saying on DSL it sure sounds like that the bullpen is pretty much set and that they will invite 'veterans' to compete in the spring or on minor league signings.

The only really unconvincing part was that he said he felt good about Contreras and that we would really contribute from the get go. He conveniently then added that Contreras has even started throwing off a mound and won't until January.

"Besides, we all know Amaro is going to trade for Hanley Ramirez in a blockbuster, out of nowhere, "RAJ to the rescue" headlines exploding deal. So I'm fine with the Ramirez twins in the infield next year."

You mean the Howard and Polanco for Hanley Ramirez deal? Then he signs King Albert and Aramis to play 1st and 3rd. Why...I wouldn't be that shocked.

Its not that fans don't support the players getting money. The fact is the team already has a lot of money tied up in contracts and some of us aren't willing to accept that after 2012 the Phillies will be the bottom dwellers. So some of us advocate not giving big money to Rollins for 4 years when it is obvious to everyone that he has been worse every year since his MVP season.

"it is obvious to everyone that he has been worse every year since his MVP season."

But he hasn't. 07=MVP 08=decline. As in not MVP but a career avg season. 09=down year obviously. 10=injured. 11=back to career avg season.

Also, Rollins signing for 4 years does not make the team awful in 2013. What move should the Phillies make concerning SS to make sure they don't finish last in 2013? I'd like to hear this.

You are right, last year disapproves the consistent decline. However, last year was not so good that you should ignore the two years before that. Last year especially wasn't so good to offer a player 4+ years at 10+ million per year. If I was Rube I'd be looking into Furcal for a stop gap until either Galvis is ready or there is a better market for SS. And honestly, how big is the dropoff between Furcal and Rollins? Not much, in fact Furcal ended up with a better OPS+ then Rollins in 2011. How many years would Furcal demand? I'm not sure, but I'm pretty sure it'll be less that Rollins.

Bye-bye-bye Jimmy. You were a great SS and thanks for all you did,but there isn't no way in hell you will get 5. Give me aram and Alex gon or for s and g give me Orlando Cabrera platoon with Valdez. Aram would fit in nice with a line up rather then that slop in Chicago.Vic, chase, aram Howard, pence, big John, chooch and a gon. Looks a little better.

r00b always offers too many years to old &/or mediocre &/or unnecessary additions, which doesn't make me feel another parade is imminent. Rollins will get what he wants, to the detriment of the team's future options. Ownership won't continue to spend fast & loose unless the money keeps rolling in, & the money won't keep rolling in as it has unless the Phillies win another World Series.

gobaystars!: You are asking for sense from idiots. You won't get it.

If A-Ram and A-Gon are the left side of the Phillies INF next season and Nix/Mayberry are a platoon in LF, what's the over/under on team OB?

I'll take .320. Also, they'll finish top 3 in HRs but won't make top 8 in runs scored.

And the defense will be worse.

Would be interesting to see how that plays out.

clout - does that mean you're for signing ramirez because he gives you better OBP than rollins?

We just missed out on a Hairston again. This has to end. How can Rube let the greatest baseball siblings in history slip through the cracks every off season?

Gtown - So you are privy to the Phils revenue stream and budget? You have no way of knowing what the Phils ownership is willing to do to keep the team in the upper echelon of baseball in a payroll sense.

"How can Rube let the greatest baseball siblings in history slip through the cracks every off season?"

Hairstons are betting than Molinas?!?!?

*better (not betting)

RedBurb - just because a fan may not be privy to the amount of revenue doesn't mean they cannot criticize how it is spent. For instance, yes, the phillies may be able to afford a competitive team regardless of Ryan Howard's 125 million financial anchor. That doesn't make it a good move, or a move immune from criticism.

Does anyone think that RAJ holding fast to a 3 year deal for Rollins is proof that he may have learned from giving Ibanez and Polanco that third year? This point could all be moot if Ramirez gets inked for 4 to 5 years however. Just seems odd that they would be so steadfast in their negotiations with Rollins but willfully give extra years to other players.

circus - I understand that. In fact I criticize the FO for dumb signings all the time. But that's not what Gtown was saying. He is saying that if the Phils don't win the WS, the cash will stop rolling in. There is no way of knowing that.

There are plenty of good reasons to be leery of Aramis Ramirez, but his OBPs in 3 of the last 4 years have been .361, .389 and .380. So how exactly would he make our team OBP worse?

"Fans' almost unwaivering support of management over players is one of the oddest things in sports. The level of disdain for wealthy employees compared to wealthier bosses is fascinating."

When players do what's in their financial interests, they actually leave the team, whereas ownership is with the team for good. It's tougher to see them as traitors.

Personally, I have no problem with Rollins taking a 5-year deal if he can get it from someone. I would not label him a traitor like some would (and did in the case of Werth) because he has the right to do whatever is in his own best interests.

But I don't think it's in the best interest of the Phils to give him a 5-year deal (even a 4th year is pushing it, but given the alternatives I'd be willing to cave on that) for many reasons, so I am with management on this one. I have been a big supporter of bringing Rollins back, no matter what the cost, because the team will be significantly worse off without his production at a premium position. But if the contingency plan is Ramirez and someone like Furcal at SS, the loss would probably be considerably easier to bear, especially if Rollins is holding a gun to Rube's head for a deal that, quite frankly, no one else with any ounce of sanity would give him.

I think this all ends with Rollins realizing he's holding out for a deal that no one is going to give him, and caving to a contract with some sort of a 4th-year vesting option. Remember that the Jeter/Yankees talks started roughly as well- then Jeter had a reality check.

I believe the problem in that equation would be Gonzalez.

With Ramirez and Gonzalez you would be replacing Polanco and Rollins. That would be replacing a combined OBP of ~.670-.680 with a combined OBP of ~.630-.640. That is a pretty big drop.

CHECK A-RAMS NOT CONTRACT YEAR STATS.Does the glove taketh more than the bat giveth.asks Jimmy and Polly.

ramirez' back problems will make oswalt seem like a 16 year old gymnast. please beware.

Redburb - He's saying the cash will stop rolling in from the fans, not the ownership group. The owners may indeed be willing to lose money for a winner, though I'd not bet on it long term.

If the Phillies continue to win divisions, or wild cards, and not advance in the playoffs for a number of seasons, I think it's likely fans will stop sitting in the seats and televisions viewing may go down and trinkets may not sell as well. There are a lot of things that can happen. Atlanta is not really a baseball town like Philly, but fans are fickle everywhere. As the price of seats and parking and beer go up, there is a point at which they will stop selling. And even billionaires hate negative cashflow.

We don't know what exactly the number is. But I'd be willing to bet it's somewhere around the luxury tax cap. And we'll find out by what happens at third base after JRoll is signed. If they stick with Polly, you'll know they've come close to maxing out.

"He is saying that if the Phils don't win the WS, the cash will stop rolling in. There is no way of knowing that."

This is one of the dumber things G-Town has ever said, which is a feat in itself. If the team keeps winning divisions, or even just contending for playoff spots, the cash will roll in regardless of what happens in the postseason.

People are going to stop showing up and buying merchandise just because they don't win the big one? That makes a lot of sense. Just look at what a decade's worth of late-season choking has done for the Eagles. Ownership is really hurting from that!

Football has 8 home games a year. It's a little tougher to fill a stadium for 81 games. Yes, Philly fans aren't Atlanta fans or San Diego fans. But there is a point at which they'll stop buying and I'd think a bunch of frustrating non-runs in the playoffs may do the trick.

Old information its done Ramirez 3 years 40 Mill with a 4th year buyout. Polly is traded for a prospect we pick up 2.5 Mill of his contract. Will we go for Furcal or Galvis is the question...

CHECK A-RAMS NOT CONTRACT YEAR STATS.Does the glove taketh more than the bat giveth.asks Jimmy and Polly.

JR - please flesh out your contract year argument. I'm desperate for evidence Ramirez doesn't play well in a non contract year. Please illuminate me.

I don't have any credibility on this site and I will have even less after proposing this, but does anyone else think Polly could potentially hold his own at SS? He's played it in the past, he made a very smooth transition to 3B, the offense would look a lot better than it would with any other in-house option at short, and it probably wouldn't save the Phils any money since they would likely eat much of his contract even if they dealt him.

I've been told that a real baseball fan understands the defensive importance of a quality SS, but were Ramirez to come to Philly, Polly at short is the best overall option I can see. I have a feeling that no one else sees it that way, and maybe with good reason.

Considering that the Marlins are signing Reyes, and already have Han-Ram & Bonifacio, I wonder where that leaves Omar Infante who just signed a 2-year, $8M extension. The reason I ask is that, assuming last year was an anomaly, he'd be a pretty nice, and cost-effective, shortstop for 2012.

Potential Marlins Depth Chart:

SS Reyes
LF Morrison
3B Ramirez
1B Pujols
RF Stanton
2B Infante
CF Bonifacio
C Buck

That's an insane lineup. God help us if they get Pujols - Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad is no joke.

I dont even know what they'd do with Gaby Sanchez - maybe Morrison can play CF and they play him in LF and just go for the best offense ever.

BAP - I think bonafacio plays CF, Ramirez 3B, Reyes SS and Infante 2B. That's according to the marlins website, maybe they do it differently in real life.

"..But there is a point at which they'll stop buying and I'd think a bunch of frustrating non-runs in the playoffs may do the trick."

I don't know if that is necessarily the case as I feel that Phils games were pretty popular in CBP prior to 2007. I could be wrong but I felt that the stadium usually had good crowds. Also as for the team's finances, we don't know details of any TV deals the Phils have with Comcast.

I swear I would not help Rhea Hughes with money no matter what.

Circus: Got it. I had Ramirez at 3rd, Bonifacio moving to 2nd & Infante -- I don't know where. I still think it's fair to say that their lineup is in a considerable state of flux, since it sounds like they're trying to add another bat, possibly even Pujols. And, as you say, Gaby Sanchez surely figures in there somewhere.

circus: Morrison can't play CF. He can barely play LF. He's a bad fielder.

epicurean: Polly cannot play SS. He was OK there as a utility guy 10 years ago, but no longer has the range to play there.

The notion that you can actually build a team to win a short series in the playoffs is held by 10-year-olds and idiots.

The best you can do in MLB is build the team that wins the most games during the season and then hope you get lucky and/or hot in October.

I dont think Polly could play SS he doesnt have the speed to cover that position properly. In a pinch you could probably use him. Unless the ball is hit to him or 2 feet to left or right maybe. You might as well put Utley there instead.

Jimmy earned his payday with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WUCC-3e8U0&feature=related

Pay the man!

I know Polly at short is a stupid idea, but you have to admit that he has much better range than Utley. Utley at SS is crazier still.

I'm trying to think outside the box here, as it's difficult for me to consider dealing a rock-solid middle infielder and replacing him with any of the sub-par in-house options. Worse still would be to bench him and send Valdez or the unproven Galvis out there to start every day. Polly is a dignified, first-rate player in the latter days of his prime, and I would hate to see the Phils fail to do right by him yet again, after that sloppy business in 2005. But I one has to do what it takes to win.

"The notion that you can actually build a team to win a short series in the playoffs is held by 10-year-olds and idiots.

The best you can do in MLB is build the team that wins the most games during the season and then hope you get lucky and/or hot in October."
----
Thank you clout. This needs to be on bulletin boards all over the Delaware Valley. You don't even have to win the most during the season, as long as you make it into the playoffs (and in the new format, preferably win your division and avoid the one-game playoff).

Regarding Polanco/ARam and defense, the WAR stat helps here: despite Polanco's pretty bad year offensively, the two were not far in WAR, due to the difference in defense:

Ramirez 3.6 WAR
Polanco 2.8

If Lozano has a 5-year deal on the table for JRoll I'd be interested to know what's the AAV.

I also wonder what kind of deal Jimmy wants: 5/55? 5/60? 5/80?

Do we know that Jimmy would accept a lower AAV if he got the years? Perhaps, after Reyes got inked by the Fish, Jimmy and his team raised their expectations!?

Jimmy is a proud man, and rightfully so. He's been tremendously successful at his chosen profession.

I just wonder whether he's overreaching or feels he's beenlwballed by the Phillies.

BTW, what constitutes "did not go all that well,"?

Does it mean the Phillies offered 3/36 with an option year at 13mm, and Lozano said he already had 4/50 with an option at 14mm on the table, and the Phils replied by saying they'd never match that?

Should say: "been lowballed" by the Phillies...

mlbtr is reporting a Knobler tweet that Lozano and Amaro hope to meet again tonight:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/jimmy-rollins-rumors-monday.html

Oops, speed kills.

It was a Stark tweet.

On the concept of the contract year, there is lots of anecdotal evidence on both sides, and it may be that ARam has done better in his contract years, but studies into the matter have not found a "contract year effect" in baseball.

schmenkman - ramirez doesnt even do better in contract years. i have no clue where that comes from re: him

Rollins and the discount: it's irrelevant for the current negotations, but his previous contract really was a great bargain for the Phillies:

Salary: $49 M
Value: $112 M according to FanGraphs

My prediction: The Phillies re-sign Rollins to a deal that most posters think is a real overpay in dollars in order to avoid a guaranteed 5th year. 4 years, $52 million with a vesting option for a 5th year at $14M.

I still think that's too much--if I'm the Phillies, I would play hardball and hold fast to the 3-year limit. But they won't.

I'd also like to push back a little bit on the conventional wisdom that the right move is a Mayberry/Nix platoon in LF once Howard is healthy.

I don't hold out all that much hope for John Mayberry to suddenly turn into Jayson Werth or anything, but it's probably worth noting that last season he was good enough to play every day. He hit righties just fine (frankly better than Nix did last year). Whether that holds true going forward or not, who knows. But I do think there's an argument that he's earned the right to be at least given a chance to play every day, especially because he's the better defender.

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