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Thursday, December 01, 2011


CON: Price, injury history, sometimes questionable work ethic/attitude? (Can't recall specifics, but think I've read that.)

PRO: If healthy, he's a game-changer in his prime at age 28. Plenty of stat people smarter than me can point out the other PROs, but it's clear he *can* be one of the best position players in the game. Not only is SS a position of need for the Phils, but he would inject the OBP/SB that we've been missing at the top of the lineup (Victorino is solid but better suited elsewhere).

When Raul Ibanez ended up with a .793 OPS in 2010 and a .707 OPS in 2011, was he "bringing it"? How about Mini-Mart's .540 OPS? Was that also "brought"?

Not saying they should shell out $100 million at all, but Reyes is skilled and 28 years old. Gimme players that can play.

I love that the Phillies have an FO that can say things like that, and I automatically think we're within days of an announcement. haha.

There are a lot of worse SS options out there, so if that would happen, I'd be more-or-less ok with it.

I have a hunch his attitude MIGHT change if he goes to a winner.

they already have more it's all about me types please.

Did the Phillies pay to have the Reyes rumor started, as a motivator for Rollins agent to get a deal done or else we will sign some other SS?

bubba: if so, best spent moeny this offseason.

Come on, he's always got six girlies in his Lincoln Continental. It's just the way J-Rey rolls. No Front Office visits necessary.

Jose Reyes is a really good player, but I'd worry about giving that much money to a guy who's had so much trouble staying healthy.

He's not the defensive SS that JRoll is but he is simply the better overall player this point.

I would have made mixed feelings if they sign him because I disliked him on the Mets & he strikes me as being a bit of an a$$ on and off the field.

He really is the one player too on the FA market this year that really would upgrade the offense next year too since the Phils aren't acquiring a Pujols/Fielder.

I did think it was hilarious that Heyman stated that Marlins' sudden interest "seems very agressive" and that "this is no publicity stunt." That must come right from their team PR guy as the Fish have already taken a bunch of heat this season on bringing every half-decent FA to town for a vist this offseason in order to goose modest season ticket sales.

Forget to add Bell. If the Phils do sign Reyes, they have indeed become the Yankees of the NL. $$$

I voted that the Phils would be "nuts" to sign Reyes. I think Reyes is a tremendous player who automatically upgrades this offense in great areas of need (OBP, SB) and is an elite defensive SS. I worry about two issues that have been, and will continue to be, the main negatives in the discussion: dollars and health.

Surprised the Red Sox haven't really been rumored to be in on Reyes or Rollins this offseason. They must really believe in Jed Lowrie.

As Billingsly notes, "dollars and health" are two good reasons to tread cautiously before giving out a huge contract to Jose Reyes. But, considering that he is a fantastic player, is only 28, and is the only FA on the market who could not only duplicate Rollins' performance, but sizably improve upon it, I am absolutely dumbfounded that any Phillies fan would characterize such a signing as "absolutely nuts." Risky, yes. But surely not nuts.

That said, this "story" doesn't seem to have any legs. Amaro has been known for misdirection, but he was pretty unequivocal in his denial.

I voted "Yes" on it being nuts to sign him. In addition to him being a bad egg, he is also a Mut.

Stark has been right about pretty much all of Ruben's Misdirection thus far hasn't he. If he starts to say this has legs i'm willing to believe that. But he's not saying that yet.

my other thought is: well, i don't live in philly anymore and only watch the games on the internet, so, if they end up having to charge $50 bucks for the nose bleeds at CBP to spend like the Yankees, i guess i don't care too much. LOL

I understand Reyes has a higher ceiling, but let's not forget who has played considerably more games the last few years... the "injury prone" Rollins. You think those constant hamstring tweaks aren't going to be annoying on a 6 year 100 mil contract?
And I understand if some team wants to give Jimmy a Rowand contract, but if we can do something reasonable, is it too much to ask to bring back an all-time Phillie who ushered us into this great era of prosperity? Especially considering he's still productive. It sure beats splurging for what we hope Reyes could be (ie healthy and consistent). I'm not overly sentimental but if it's close I like to see our guys get brought back. It's why I hate the Papelbon over Madson decision.

Not only isn't it nuts, RAJ's priority should be Reyes. Money is always a factor, as is health. But Reyes is the Rollins "factor" of 2007-2009 that we've been missing. How many times have we needed that one guy at the top to get on base and make an inning happen. In short playoff series you must manufacture runs against elite pitchers. Doc Cliff and Cole can't win every playoff game by themselves.

How can you sign Papelbon instead of Madson and then claim you're not even considering Reyes at SS?

A 'Baseball Wives' show? Pass. It was much more entertaining to hear some of the anonymous tales from my friend's dad (traveling manager for the Tigers) when he was in Boston. Wives/girlfriends/groupies really had crazy demands that I am surprised to this day really doesn't get leaked more given the culture we live in and the ready ability to capture it.

curt - from those quotes it appears it's less about ability and more about intangibles.

still, i've been on the sign Reyes bandwagon since Howard's achilles went poof, so i'm hoping it's a misdirection by Phils brass.

So the Reyes presser the Tuesday following the Winter Meetings. Book it.

Scotch, from your lips to Rube's ears.

No to Reyes. He has all the talent in the world, but isn't a winning player. Didn't we get enough of this type of player with Iverson?

Iverson? The guy who single handedly carried a crap team to the Finals?

Yeah, what a loser.

I think he would be a good signing at 3 years 48 Mil. I dont think it will happen though. I believe they will re-sign Rollins if he just steps down his demands a notch. If not Furcal at 2 years might not be that bad provided he doesnt get hurt and can somehow stay healthy. If he is healthy he should give us a .270 BA with maybe 10 HR's. Its about the same we would get with J-Roll. The injury risk between the 2 is almost equal and he should come cheaper i think. Two years 18.5 Mill.

In the 2 years they could start grooming Galvis for MLB and still have a Vet backing him up should he struggle.

There is no substitute for talent. None. Don't forget that he really doesn't have to be healthy over a 162 game season. For the forseeable future, this team should win over 90 games a year just on pitching.

Wouldn't you want Reyes as your SS in the playoffs? Cause that's what we'd be spending the money on, man.

"He has all the talent in the world, but isn't a winning player."

What exactly are the criteria for "a winning player?"

I'm on the *expect an announcement in a few days that the Phils have signed Reyes* team.

I also expect that we will either sign him or that its pending minor details/a physical to make it complete. Why else would he be in Philly?

Story I heard was that he came to Philly to visit his daughter (where I read that, I can't recall).

Playoff line-up?

Ace/Ace/Ace/Blanton or Worley or Kendrick

No. It wouldn't be crazy.

Has anyone seen Jimmy?

"“I haven’t heard that guy’s name mentioned in our offices in two months.” "

Sorry, but this absolutely has to be bull. The chance that they did not discuss arguably the best free agent position player out there, at a position of need, is nil.

Whether this is intended to cover their tracks, or to light a fire under Rollins, or what, I don't know. But they have certainly thought about and discussed Reyes.

3 years $48 mil??? He's asking for more than twice that. However, if he could be had for 5/80 would you do it?

I don't put a lot weight on but it is interesting reading. If the Mets did only offer Reyes 80 mil for 5 or 6 years, I wouldn't think 90-95 for the same span could be considered absolutely nuts. If it was a choice of either or (James or Jose) , I would take Reyes no matter how much I hate the dude over J-roll's soon to be epic decline.
As for Mad Dog's people not even making a meeting with the Marlins because of a opening offer, funny.

I'm with whoever said to say signing Reyes would be "nuts" is, in fact, nuts himself. I'm not his biggest fan, but Reyes in the Phils lineup would be pretty awesome.

"We haven't heards this guy's name around our offices in two months"

Maybe that because they decided they'd try to sign him 3 months ago, and wanted to keep rollins out of the loop.

Half truth's are the phil's FO forte.

What position is Jose Reyes playing in 3-4 years?

Is he the ~110 OPS+ player of 2005-2010 or will his late 20s-early 30s look more like his 143 OPS+ 2011 (done in ~130 games with a BAbip ~40-50 points above his career norm).

I don't think he'd block whatever comes of Galvis (if Galvis' hitting improves), but I do wonder if this is the best investment.

Maybe that's what this Phils Team needs... Attitude! Young and dumb, and full of Come.

Ruben's comments on Reyes boil down to this for me... me thinks thou doth protest too much.

Sophist: Good point, but on a blog where posters can barely look beyond one week, let alone one season, no one else here
will see that 2011 season as a huge outlier. To them it's Reyes' norm.

With Reyes, you'll be lucky if you get 130 games a year out of him. That's his high water mark over the last 3 years. He's never healthy. He's not the guy you give a 5 year, $80 million deal to.

Reyes and Davey Lopes make sense . Elite pitching and player that can generate runs almost by himself makes sense. It would cost a few more millions than Rollins and losing our heart would be hard. However a run here and there makes a huge difference with great pitchers. Bold hard move to make but it's not nuts .

NEPP - That is the one reason why I don't want the Phils to sign Reyes.

Yes, it undoubtedly gives the Phils a much better chance of winning the WS next year than resigning JRoll let alone Furca/A Gonzalez but over the more intermediate term tying up $75M in 4 players (Howard/Lee/Reyes/Papelbon) in '14 and '15 is a recipe for disaster even if this team's payroll is at $180M in those years.

Say they resign Halladay. That puts them at $100M. I know I will get mocked for bringing this up but that just doesn't make competitive sense unless the Phils had a ton of cheap, young talent they could count on to be productive at the MLB level by '14 to round out the rest of the roster. They don't.

Maybe Amaro is savvy enough to pull off a William Tell act by hitting the apple on the head but that assumes if he signs Reyes that he makes also flawless moves to round out the rest of the year, Halladay/Lee/Howard/Reyes/Papelbon trio is still productive and healthy in '14 and '15, and 7 cheaper players do emerge to become key contributors/starters at the MLB level. Odds of this scenario - Almost zero.

It doesn't they will go back to be a 70 or 75 win team in '14 if they keep a $180M payroll but it does mean they will be incredibly challenged to round out the rest of the roster will cheap yet productive players.

to follow up on Sophist's point, Reyes's had almost identical batted ball numbers in 2011 vs career:

Career: 44% GB // 35.8% FB // 20.2% LD = .314 babip
2011: 42.1% GB // 36.8 FB // 21.1% LD = .353 babip

So it basically looks like his jump in 2011 is as 'luck' as you can get.

Reyes does love hitting in Philly though:

Career Splits:
Overall: .292 AVG/.341 OBP/.782 OPS
in CBP: .311 AVG/.360 OBP/.858 OPS

signing Reyes is not as crazy as one might think.we sure could have used his ability to generate runs by himself in game five of the Cardinal series. I know that when we play the Mets, he's the one guy that can turn a walk or a single into a run with his legs. Last year the Phils didn't run nearly as much as they should have. Speed puts added pressure on the pitcher and the defense

I am under no illusions that Jose Reyes will ever repeat his 2011 numbers. I am also under no illusions that Jimmy Rollins is remotely close to Jose Reyes's equal.

What MG said in his 2:44 PM post; plus the moment Jose Reyes "sat down" for whatever reason upon securing the '11 batting title... how can any championship team take this mutt seriously?

Coincidence? Not likely.

2011 babip vs career: +.040
2011 avg vs career: +.045
2011 obp vs career: +.043
2011 slg vs career: +.052

So basically the bump in babip translates to almost his exact jumps in number of hits, times on bases, and bases per at bat.

Iverson? The guy who single handedly carried a crap team to the Finals?

Yeah, what a loser.

Posted by NEPP

Hahaha this was the best post today

One thing is for sure...if the Phillies did sign Reyes, BL's post count would increase 20-30% in 2012. Talk about a polarizing player. We already have 500 "See, told ya!" posts to look forward to every single time Papelbon gives up a single in the 9th. Adding Reyes into the mix would be epic.

Perhaps we could also bring back Tom Gordon? He was always good for riling everyone up.

I voted no...I think this offense would be incredible again with him in it.

Rollins isn't Reyes equal at this point, but that's why Rollins' is probably not looking for $100M.

Is Rollins a good move? I'm lukewarm at best on that one considering where he'd probably hit and how many years he'd probably get, but to say I'd rather not have Reyes at that price is not to say I would want Rollins at the likely price.

I don't really want either guy unless it comes on the cheap (in terms of years as far as Rollins goes). What are the chances Amaro gets a little creative with this job opening?

OK, here's a question, as long as we're playing with the boss's money and not our own. Let's say we don't sign Reyes, and let's also say that he would have gotten 6 years for about $16MM/yr ($100MM total). Ok, what do we do that that money?

Would we bring up Galvis and suppliment him with a scrap heap 2 year gamer for $10MM? Would we resign Rollins for 5/$75 (or whatever) and invest the rest in... who? Do we trade for a hot 3rd baseman and ignore the SS as an offensive threat?

The question isn't really is Reyes going to be worth whatever we might sign him for, it's would he be worth whatever else we would have spent the money on. I'm having a hard time thinking about a better use of that money, assuming the Phils have it to spend.

It's been so quiet on the SS front, it leads to the belief that maybe RAJ is working the phones a bit. It is also what makes the Reyes "sighting" more interesting, but I'm assuming he's known what Rollins is looking for, and will get a chance to match any offer, so there's not too much stress there.

Creative as in a trade or creative as in start someone who has a much less chance of being a good player to use resources more effectively elsewhere?

So, Clout is firmly against bringing in Reyes, and only the morons on BL think Reyes will repeat his 2011 numbers.

Did I get that one right? Don't want to misstate your position.

Or do you actually want them to spend the money for Reyes, but not expect him to duplicate his 2011 season.

See why I'm confused? I read your post's scathing critique of BLs in general as being morons with goldfish attention spans. But I didn't actually see YOUR opinion in there.

half the people on here are worried about team payroll in 2023, so I'm not sure I get Clout's criticism re: shortsightedness...

Dan in Philly,

What the Phils could do with the opportunity of spending that $16M is a great question. I do wonder, though, if your response focuses a bit much on the idea that they'd have to spend it in December of 2011 or February of 2012.

To take an easier case: when the Phils extended Howard, Pujols was not a free agent (and it may have seemed to many that he never would be). But now he is. There may not be many better things to do with $16/ *right now* but I'm pretty sure there will be better things to do with it given a bit of time.

I don't have that much of a problem with Reyes the 100-120 OPS+ SS for the next 5 years as long as he's playing everyday. Definitely worth the money. Given his age, the potential to be something even better is there. But he looks like a big Furcal risk to me.

lorecore, creative as in do something besides signing Reyes or Rollins to a high-priced contract. Something outside the box maybe.

Looked at the 2013 FA class of shortstops to try and see who would be a trade candidate this year.

Erik Aybar and Stephen Drew only ones who make sense. Aybar coming off decent year, but career has been a pretty common slick fielding/light hitting player.

Not sure how creative Ruben can really be with this.

lorecore - I don't think he can be. Either he goes 'big' and signs Reyes/JRoll to a long-term deal or goes with more of a stop-gap moderate solution in Furcal.

I have seen A. Gonzalez mentioned but Amaro isn't going to go with a clear downgrade from JRoll last year. It will be either Reyes/JRoll/Furcal.

Have the Phillies, or anyone, actually been linked with Furcal?

lorecore, if I were convinced nothing good were attainable via trade, I'd rather the Phils find a 1-year sol'n and see what develops.

How many games did Valdez start at SS last year? How many games did the Phils win? They have the resources elsewhere to survive lack of offensive production at the position in the short-term (provided lack of disaster elsewhere).

How awful is Asdrubal Cabrera's defense? I haven't seen him play often enough, but he's in his second year of Arb in 2012 ... about to become a more expensive player. Excellent offensive production, relative youth, not as expensive as Reyes.

Amaro signed Doc and traded Lee for 3 no-names the next day. He then went out and signed Lee a year later. He traded for Oswalt, Pence. And on and on. He certainly *can* be creative if we all recognize his facility for finding the hidden opportunity for a smug and celebratory press conference.

The Phils still have tradable assets. Let's start with Cole Hamels.

Well considering 1B, 3B, and LF are already big question marks in 2012 - i dont think adding SS to the list is really what this team should be doing just because their pitching is so f'n good that it makes Brian Schneider and Wilson Valdez put up winning records.

There might be more to the d'Arnaud inquiry than just Rube doing his homework.

I'm not advocating that Hamels' best value is as trade bait. I just don't think we should underestimate the number of possible moves Amaro could make here.

trading prospects for Doc and then sending Lee away for prospects would be this year equivalent of signing Reyes and then salary dumping Utley to pay Jose. I think Ruben learned his lesson on that one.

Lee Thomas got hired as Dan Duqette's right-hand man in Baltimore. Not surprising at all. He was the same role in Boston when Duquette was the GM there.

Good old boy network!

I'm not saying Amaro would follow old models move for move. I'm saying we shouldn't underestimate his ability to take an unlikely or unpopular risk.

Forget Reyes 143 OPS+ last season (which is 24 points higher than J-Roll's best year). It might be enough to say that in the last 6 years one of the two has been over 100 in OPS every year and the other has been below 90 twice.

Seriously. It is not enough to say that Reyes was lucky last year. As an over-all offensive player he has performed better than Jimmy lately and will, most likely, in the future.

If you want to raise questions they must be about his injury history, which has shelved him significantly a couple times in the past few years (including keeping him on the sidelines for all but 36 games in one season). That's the real valid critique.

But as for offensive impact? If he's healthy, he'll provide better O than Mr. Rollins.

common denominator in all of Ruben's moves: Make Today's team better than Yesterday's

Doc is better than Lee
Oswalt upgraded rotation
Lee was best FA
Pence upgraded lineup

I'll agree that we shouldn't underestimate his creativity, but in almost 0 cases has he made a move(s) that have put an emphasis on sacrificing talent for future opportunity -- right or wrong.

Andy: Everyone understands that, its why Reyes is expected to make double what Rollins is.

When throwing out/discounting 2011, is Reyes really a $100M player when Rollins is more likely a ~$50M one? I dont think so.

Worley is another asset that could conceivably anchor a package that could bring in a shortshop.

Jbird: LOL. Good point.

JJG - Or Brown even if his value has diminished a bit.

the more and more i think about the phillies current predicament, the more and more it's a shame they just couldn't convince the owners to keep lee and trade for halladay.

I'd like to know what SS you could trade for? Maybe super-utility guys like Bloomquist, Eduardo Nunez, or Maicer Izturis. There aren't many teams w/ "average" SS Tampa Bay has 3 guys that hit .200 last yr. Chad Pennington? Bartlett? Paul Janish? There are at least 4 other teams looking for shortstops: SF, Atl, TB, Mill... Slim pickins.. It's JRoll/Furcal or bust.. Don't think Reyes is coming here.. just a feeling.

Out of sheer curiosity, when a team allows a player to test the open market via FA, then eventually signs him (i.e. the situation we'd see if RJoll re-signs), what kind of window is typical?

It seems that as each day passes that JRoll isn't re-signed, the likelihood of it occurring diminishes a bit.

Then again, it has been remarkably quiet, in terms of any alternate plans. Even the Papelbon signing came just a day or two after the Madson assumed deal went sour.

Brandon Moss signed a minor league deal with the A's.

JW - You should have added 'Maybe' and 'Batshit Crazy'

If Jimmy isn't briught back, then Reyes should be the guy. If not him then I'd rather have Alex Gonzalez or Betancourt over Furcal due to Furcal's age.

And speaking of Iverson. I work with people here in Richmond who know him personally. And while he may have a thug's personality, for someone who is all 6'0" and 160lbs. tops you can't argue with the fact that he busted his tail on the court, and was fearless. Yes, Reyes has the same type of personality, or so it seems, but if he busts his tail off in the diamond and he's playing here, then I support the potential move.

While the team is loyal to Jimmy and rightly so, Reyes is a true lead-off hitter which is something this team needs desparately.

Voted against signing Reyes. Too much money, too injury prone and too much "attytude."

My biggest concern with signing JRoll is seeing him leadoff for 3-4 more years. I dont know that I can mentally handle that.

What do real Mets fans think of Reyes? That's the question. Do people that see him every day think he busts his a$$ or do they look at him the way Eagles fans look at DeSean Jackson?

There are plenty of guys out there that we HATE as a fanbase because they beat us up and Reyes always seems to be one of is he their Victorino or is he another DeSean?


One of my closest friends is a longtime Met fan/partial season ticket holder. My friend is not a guy who likes show offs or whatever. He is absolutely aggravated the Mets may lose Reyes, and if the Phils sign him, he'll never buy season tickets again.

My college roommate is a lifelong Mets fan, and is essentially hanging his interest in next season on whether or not the Mets can come through and sign Reyes. By all accounts, even over at, re-signing Reyes has been PRIORITY #1 for Mets fans.

*should have said "former" college roommate. Sadly, I'm several years removed from "the best years of one's life..."

(though I am a PSU grad, so maybe being removed isn't such a terrible thing right now)

Just a thought: Could Reyes' agent be using the Phils to have the Marlins et al to up the ante? The "He was in a Continental driving around center city" is pretty weak.. but it's working on this blog lol

I agree with Sophist. Amaro's past suggests that an outside-the-box solution is likely.

I can't see a trade of prospects working very well - the farm has been pretty stripped. I do wonder what a contract-year Gold Glove CF coming off a career year could get on the trade market.

***I do wonder what a contract-year Gold Glove CF coming off a career year could get on the trade market.***

I think that depends on how much it costs to get Cespedes to fill CF in his place. Otherwise, I dont see us trading our former Gold Glover CF.

I was actually shocked to see him passed over for the GG this year but I didnt realize they specified different OF positions now so it makes sense that Bourn won over him.

Phils have at least two positions of strength: their ability to spend money and their starting pitching. I'm not coming out for or against of this, but looking at their positions of strength could identify possible trade candidates -- teams with quality SS who are about to become expensive, teams that need SP, or some blockbuster deal with a team that just wants Hamels, whoever the hot arm of the season is down in Clearwater or over in Lakewood (some dude), maybe even Vic.

Asdrubal Cabrera and S. Drew are examples of the first kind of candidate. Someone like, I don't know, Elvis Andrus might be an example of the second. I can see scenarios were it makes more sense to trade for Hamels than resign CJ Wilson. Maybe Hanley Ramirez is an example of the last category. Maybe Miami has soured on him or maybe Amaro can make an offer they can't refuse.

Again, not saying any of these scenarios are likely or that I want any of them to even happen (I'm all for keeping Doc-Lee-Hamels together for the next decade above all else), but I am just looking for options outside of the obvious FA candidates (Rollins, Reyes, Gonzalez, Furcal) and some Galvis/Valdez situation. Not advocating possibilities, just seeing what possibilities are more likely than others.

Brandon Moss signs minor league deal with Athletics:

I'm sad to see him go, personally, as I had a completely unfounded feeling that he would step back up to his former level as a prospect with the Phils. Don't ever get attached to a washed up AAA OFer with mild pop - if you do, you'll start missing everybody.

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