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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

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And by Mid-May, Josh Johnson might even still be healthy.

Remember when the Red Sox tried this once with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and they didn't even make the playoffs? Good times.

Apparently the Marlins are still talking to Prince Fielder.


Ugh.

Reyes
LoMo
Hanley
Fielder
Stanton
Coghlan
Infante
Buck

That is also scary.

That's a pretty tough lineup there. Defensively, its not great but they'll put a bunch of runs on the board.

Jack: Your argument that the Phils can get by without good defense at SS is baffling given your HUNDREDS of posts over a period of two years extolling the greatness of Pedro Feliz, how his bat didn't matter because thirdbase was such a crucial defensive position etc. etc.

J-Roll is far better on offense (and defense) than Feliz ever was, yet he shouldn't be re-signed because we need more offense and Han Ram is just fine at SS?

i mean they need a CF, but they can live with Coghlan i guess.

They'll sign Fielder and Cespedes.

How many runs is that lineup capable of?

Not that there is any chance at all of such a thing happening, but the Phillies would be far better off sacrificing Defense at SS to add someone who can hit, run & not miss 30 games every year due to injury.

It is true that the Phillies finished 7th in runs scored. It is true though that had they played out the season they probably finish in the top 5 because they lost ground when they sat guys for the last 7-10 days. It's important to note that with an asterisk.

The Buehrle deal is a ton of money a year for him even with how dependable he has been over the years. If Amaro gave him 15+ a year people on here would flip their lids and it would be terrible.

1,000. Do they have the pitching to win a 5 or 7 game series though?

If Johnson could stay healthy...yes.

But Johnson cannot stay healthy.

Everyone seems to think the Marlins are signing all these players on a credit card of expected future revenues. But I recall reading that, despite their low attendance, they have actually been the most profitable team in baseball -- and by quite a bit -- over the last 5 or 6 years.

The Marlins' owners are not really spending tomorrow's expected revnues. They're spending the enormous profits with which they've been lining their pockets over these past years, all while sticking it to their fans with the cheapest on-field product that money could by.

The window is gettin' ready to slam shut.

GTown: How many times in his career has J-Roll missed 30 games in a season?

NEPP: The Marlins rotation has not been able to stay healthy for the past 3 seasons.

JJ missed nearly all of last season and 10 starts in 2010, Nolasco missed a third of 2010 and Sanchez missed two-thirds of 2009.

Rather have them sign Buerhle then Cj. It seems like Pujols is only keeping the Marlins on the table for leverage. As long as Prince signs with Toronto or Seattle for the most part we are in the clear.

clout: That's a prediction, not a citation.

They should just sign Omar Minaya and he can just hold a press conference and take responsibility for the signings.

Who cares who they sign. Last time I checked we still have three aces and remember just because u Put good team on paper doesn't mean they will win. Example look at dream team eagles. How's that working out? And can't wait till that fat Heath bell blows up in the 100 heat on the road. That team full of head cases.

***NEPP: The Marlins rotation has not been able to stay healthy for the past 3 seasons***

Which is why I made the "if healthy" caveat.

The Phils still need offense and are coming up small.

Your probably right DPatron but i think this is it. Unless some blockbuster deal is pulled off.

Any new info on what A-Ram might be doing? This lack of info puts Rube in the weeds ready to pounce on Rollins and A Ramirez.. The thorn there is what to do w/ Polly

Buehrle to the Fish means (per MLB Trade Rumors) that the Nats will be targeting Oswalt. Rube will look awfully stupid for letting Little Roy walk when he's pitching a no-hitter against us in Washington next season.

NEPP: I was agreeing with the second part of your post.

I just don't think this opening day line up is that great: (PIT/Maholm):

Jimmy
Vic
Utley
Mayberry
Pence
Polly
Wiggity
Ruiz

They beat the Pirates...but I don't know that they win the division.

I assume I'm alone in thinking that if Mini-Mart and Valdez don't get 550 PAs, like they did last season, the Phils will actually score more runs next season even if they make no offensive moves beyond signing J-Roll.

Clout not without Howard. All depends on how long the big piece is on the big shelf.

I want to thank all my fans in Philly. It has been a great ride. I will never forget the love and cheers. Thanks for everything.

Peace
J

noname: Put Pence cleanup, Mayberry 5th, Wiggy 6th and Polly 7th and that's not a bad lineup at all.

Shut up Jimmy. You are signing tonight or tomorrow. Cut the crap.

***I was agreeing with the second part of your post.***

Ahh...not used to you agreeing with me.

Nats are trying to sign Roy Oswalt.

Good move on their part if it happens. He'd be a good veteran influence on Zimmerman and Strasburg.

Yeah I realized immediately that i miss-slotted pence and mayberry. I don't know how well that team produces...lots of pressure on mayberry to perform.

wiggity isn't as bad as I guess I think he is. I am not sold that we will ever see the Polly that we saw in April last year, but I could be wrong.

***Put Pence cleanup, Mayberry 5th, Wiggy 6th and Polly 7th and that's not a bad lineup at all.***

Assuming Mayberry is for real and Wiggy isn't finished and Polly stays healthy.

I think at least 1 of those things wont be accurate in 2012.

Nepp, if I had to choose one to bust, its Polly. I think he is cooked.

Mayberry i think hits 20 w/75 rbis. Wiggity does his job but nothing special.

@nonamePHame
Sorry partner. The Big M calls.

Wonder if Roy O. hurts his back if he goes to the Nats.

Maybe they'll put a No Tractor clause in any potential deal...

@JRoll-

Dude, bro....I am not up for your shenanigans tonight. Big Z just tweeted that ur agent canceled his meeting with the #BrewCrew tmr. You are signing in the next 48.

What's the latest on Jimmy> I was told there was a deal in place but I'm reading not. Also, Red Sox are still interested in Madson. Doubt if he'll accept arb.

Jack was right in the last thread that he was the oracle before the season began, knowing about those 8 runs the Phils wouldn't score that prevented them from being 5th in runs scored. He knew that they would win more than 100 games before the season began, put the Braves away with 3 weeks left in the season and put it on cruise control, preventing them from scoring those 8 runs. In fact I think I remember him saying something like "Anyone that doesn't think this team can win 100 games is a moron."

Oh wait, it was the exact opposite of that.

Can't question Buehrle's durability or consistency, but will be interesting to see how he fairs with that Marlins defense behind him. The guy has been a DIPS counter-example for his career, mostly.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trying-to-figure-out-mark-buehrle/

I dont really recall the WhiteSox having all that great a defense. I mean their defense is decent but not ridiculous.

I wonder how the Marlins new park will play. Will it be Petco East or CBP South? The dimensions are huge so I'm guessing its a pitchers' park.

Dpatrone,
I heard that the Phillies want JRoll to play 3rd so they can make the transition to Galvis easier. Rube us just trying to lock Galvis into an extended deal to buy out at least two years of arbitration.

Just saw the latest report on Hot Stove. Jimmy is expected to re-sign. At last some good news. We still needa another bat, LH reliever.

Also, when is the Rule 5 draft?

Rule 5 is tomorrow afternoon DPatrone. Matt Gelb through out a name on twitter some switch hitting non-prospect from the yankees. Maybe the phillies are thinking about him.

We already have Michael Martinez...

Im sorry, I read it wrong. He was talking about the switch pitcher. No shot they take him, lol.

NEPP
You wait, this guy will make Michael Martinez look like Alex Arias.

I read about this guy. He had Mizuno special make a two way glove for him and they had to implement special rules bc opposing teams would just keep pinch hitting opposite hitting players and the game took forever or something.

Thanks NoName. Appreciate it.

Are people basing the thought that we need more offense based on what we saw in the 2011 season, when they scored more runs than anyone in the NL from mid-May through August, or based on what happened in 5 games at the end of the season?

Putting aside the loss of Howard, assuming we re-sign Jimmy, I guess I'm just not getting the ledge-jumping. But I didn't last year, either, or the year before that, so I guess I'm just completely missing the boat on this one. We get a full season of Pence and are replacing Ibanez with, well, someone, which I'm guessing has to be a net-positive no matter who it is based on the absolute lambasting he received last year on BL.

If you're assuming Howard will be lost for at least half, or more, of 2012, and will contribute next to nothing offensively for most of the season, then yeah, I think they will need another bat eventually. But if it's an Utley situation and he's back by June, with the pitching, I think they'll be fine.

Speaking of Utley, I think he's the wild card in all of this. No one has any idea what he'll contribute next year or even if he'll show up healthy. If either he or Howard are clearly not going to be contributors in the second half of the season, I think we know that Rube will do what he needs to do to make a deal at the deadline. Until then, I think this desperation for a bat is unnecessary and foolish.

I dont know that Laynce Nix is all that much of an upgrade over Raul...

Mayberry SHOULD be an upgrade but its no guarantee.

I agree on Utley being the wild card. Will he be healthy? If he's healthy, is he the guy that can carry a team or is he just an above average 2B these days?

RG-- Rube just kicked in more money for J-Roll because moving to 3rd base makes him vewwwy vewwwy angwy

Iceman...this year there are no top prospects to trade at the deadline. We are pretty much spent...

What is the date and hour of the arb deadline?

Does Raul get a MLB guaranteed contract? I have not heard his name anywhere by anybody.

Tonight at 11 PM Central Goody.

Coghlan won't be playing CF for the marlins. That will be bonofacio

ICE~ I'm saying they need offense because of the last 2 post-season defeats and the fact that Howard will be missing for awile. Also, even a healthy Polly doesn't give you much pop.

Mayberry is a nice player but unproven. I'd rather see a more proven commodity in LF.

Plus the y onlt 3 top-line starters this year, not 4. They will need to hit more when guys 4 & 5 are starting. Mind you this is just my opinion.

You are right about Pence replacing Raul. But when look at Raul's offensive numbers averaged over his 3 seasons here (.264,23,86) they aren't bad. Can Mayberry match those? Not sure. We all thought Benny Fran could o the job in RF but we found out differently.

Iceman, Utley is traditionally a fitst-half performer and fades at the end of the season.

I wonder if he and Pence can carry the team until the Big Piece returns - ass-u-ming the BP will be effective at the plate.

If we ass-u-me Myberry's transformation last season after he returned is for real (I don't expect the .301/.358/.607 he put up after he came back up. If he does, it may transform the offense), the Utley, Pence, Mayberry at 3-4-5 shouldn't be too bad.

Jimmy SS
Vic CF
Utley 2B
Pence RF
Mayberry 1B
Platoon, Nix/Wigg LF
Polly/Chooch 3B/C
Chooch/Polly C/3B

might be good enough to score a few runs until Howard returns.


BTW, did anyone se the story on the Phillies site that they had interest in George Sherrill?

I see Mayberry, as the roster is presently constructed, as being more of a focal point on the offense's success.

I think the idea is that the offense - given the age of the core and the signing of Rollins - hasn't really gotten any better since the end of the season. Amaro had/has some payroll flexibility and openings in the OF and at SS (possibly 3B if Polanco is more of a UT at this point) and I'm not sure he's made an *impact* signing for the offense.

Not saying a clear impact signing (at least for this team) has presented itself, but posters feeling underwhelmed probably feel so for this reason. The big signing so far has been Papelbohn.

AWH~ I did but I haven't heard anything since.

Or posters are mad because the offense didn't perform during 2 or 3 games against the Cards. There's no helping those folks.

If Mayberry matches what he did last year in limited time (ie if he pulls a Jayson Werth), the offense is okay.

His numbers extrapolated over a full season are close to 30 HR/100 RBI. Granted, he'll see alot more RHP so that will hurt him a bit but he still hit RHP fairly well last year (better than he ever did in the minors anyway)

Its a big if though. I'm terrified of him reverting and we're suddenly stuck with Laynce Nix every day.

Dom Patrone, I'd take a bet right now that Mayberry will hit at least .264 this season. The HR? Not sure. The RBI will be very dependent on where he hits in the lineup. If he hit's 6 or 7, no. If he hits 5 or higher he might actually have a shot.

DPatrone - What available, "proven commodity" would you rather see in LF over Mayberry?

FWIW (which isn't much) but Bill James predicts Yayberry in a platoon roll with 159 PA and 6 hrs. 257/313/439 That isn't gonna get it done.

Mayberry had nearly 300 PA and 15 HR last year in a platoon with Ibanez...makes total sense that he'd have less ABs this year with no other LF available AND having him as one of the 1B options.

From MLBTradeRumors:

The Marlins are the "best bet" for Wilson, with the Angels a close runner-up, Rosenthal hears.

Good lord...

In the long run, investing in Buehrle/Wilson is probably a better bet than Pujols...at least when you look at their needs.

I have no specific basis for believing this, but C.J. Wilson just strikes me as the free agent pitcher most likely to turn into a massive bust, along the lines of John Lackey.

"probably finish in the top 5 because they lost ground when they sat guys for the last 7-10 days"

And you call yourself "truth" injection? What was there offense like with the regulars in during those games? They lost ground in offensive production because they stank offensively almost the whole month.
IIRC, I was told that they were "climbing." Yup. They climbed all the way from 3rd in the league to seventh, and they did it mostly with the regulars. Don't stick that on the bench; put it where it belongs: Rollins, Utley, Howard et al.

Flat out, they stunk the last 25 games or so.

The Marlins are a good example to all you kids out there. Commit massive securities fraud and you, too, can buy a Major League championship contender! Methinks the choice of orange jerseys was appropriate.

I dont think anyone would be that bad but I dont see Wilson as being worth #1 starter money. He's had 2 pretty good years and he'd be moving to the NL.

CJ Wilson and Mark Buerhle would be 4th and 5th starters if they signed with the Phillies.

JB~ Beltran, Willingham & Cuddyer come to mind. Also, IF they get another bat, could they then become creative & trade Vic & put Mayberry in CF?

Sophist~ You do understand that 97 & 102 wins during the last 2 regular seasons mean less than the 11 wins in each post-season they didn't get, right?

NEPP: Yeah, I'm not predicting he's going to be as bad as John Lackey, or even necessarily that he's going to be a total bust. But he's a power pitcher with spotty control. Those guys tend not to age well. He's going to receive a massive 5-year deal and I could easily see him turning into a total disaster pretty early in that deal.

Andy- Seriously, go look at the numbers as to where the Phillies were in runs scored at the point where they won the division and then at the end of the season. They took their foot off the gas the last ~2 weeks of the season save for the final series. Unless you are one of those dopes who wants to argue a fact.

DPatrone - What does "mean less" have anything to do with building a winning team next year? Sure, a playoff game "means more" than game 142, but how does that inform whatever decision Amaro makes this offseason?

It doesn't at all. There is no recipe for success in the playoffs. The Phils have the pitching, and enough offense, to be the favorites in any 5 or 7 game series as things stand right now.

Can they get better? Of course, but there's no move -- outside signing a middle reliever or a 5th starter -- that would make them a better regular season team but a worse playoff team.

It's demonstrably stupid to think that the Phils should let their decisions be determined by what happened in a 5-game series.

Of course improving the offense should be the focal point, but that's only because of the major facets of the game it was their weakest point.

What about Beltran on a flier? I have heard no market for him developing.....Thoughts??

Maybe the Phils won't be able to sleep walk through the last 2 weeks of the season into the playoffs this year. Is that really a bad thing?

NEPP - it's not that the WSox defense is good, it's that Buehrle is a GB pitcher so a greater portion of his runs allowed go as unearned. My post wasn't clear, but I just meant to say that (1) Buehrle is a GB pitcher so I wonder how del he'll hold up in FL and (2) his ERA is deceiving, so I wonder if he's being overvalued.

For that group of starters, only 7.8% of their total runs allowed were unearned, and if we adjust Buehrle’s earned-run total to reflect that average, he’d have been charged with an additional 26 runs, raising his career ERA from 3.83 to 3.92. That doesn’t bring his ERA completely in line with his FIP or xFIP, but it cuts the gap by 29%, and shows that a significant part of the perceived gap between Buehrle’s results and his peripherals is really just due to the earned run bias that runs in favor of ground-ball pitchers.

...

If we sort all starting pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched since 2000, Buehrle’s 3.83 ERA puts him as a peer of Ben Sheets (3.79), Zack Greinke (3.82), Josh Beckett (3.84), and Andy Pettitte (3.86). If you ignore the subjective earned runs tag and sort by runs allowed per nine innings, however, Buehrle’s 4.26 RA/9 makes him a peer of Al Leiter (4.23), Barry Zito (4.24), Randy Wolf (4.29), and Jarrod Washburn (4.29).

There’s nothing wrong with the second group of pitchers, but I think we’d all agree that they aren’t as good as the first group. If a team thinks they’re getting more of the former than the latter, they may very well end up disappointed.

I did this research yeseterday. Since the Wild Card came into existence, there have been 17 post-seasons. If you decided these post-seasons by putting each team's decal in a hat and conducting a random drawing, the team with the best record would have won 2.125 times (actually, somewhat more than that, since there were a few years in which teams tied for the best record -- but I didn't get into that). Similarly, the team with the worst record would have won 2.125 times. One of the 2 Wild Card teams would have won 4.25 times.

The actual results: the team with best record has won 3 times; the team with the worst record has won 3 times; a Wild Card team has won 5 times. That distribution is remarkably similar to the distribution that you'd get through the random drawing method.

Watching the Phillies go down in the post-season is incredibly frustrating -- never more so than this year. But the notion that there is some magic formula that will not only help you get to the playoffs, but improve your odds once you get there, is -- I'm sorry to say -- bogus.

Thanks for the explanation on Buehrle, Sophist.


Also, I tend to agree on Wilson.

Sophist: I thought the same thing re: Buehrle, but he's been putting up good ERA's despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball the last few years in Chicago.

He's the kind of guy I don't really trust, and wouldn't give 4/58, but I have to hand it to him that he's living right somewhere, because he just keeps putting up good seasons.

Phils expect to lose Jiwan James in Rule V tomorrow. Per source to Brookover.

If someone can carry James on their roster for the entire season...power to them.

Gelb and Brookover claiming that the Phillies expect to lose Jiwan James in the Rule 5 draft.

Best of luck to Jiwan, who has always been an intriguing prospect, but I find it hard to believe he's capable of staying on any major-league team's roster. My guess is we get the chance to take him back.

Also, I find it hilarious that people are still "arguing" with me over the Phillies offense predictions.

It's a prediction. You're either right or wrong. There's not really much to argue about. I turned out to be right last year. I'm predicting the same thing for next year, and I'll either be right, or I'll be wrong, but we'll find out next October. Not sure what there is to fight about.

He'd have to be one hell of a pinch-runner/6th OF type to survive.

He put up a .690 OPS in Clearwater last year.

noname - I would take Beltran on a 1 year flier. Depends on if he would agree to that though.

Sophist~ I beg to differ. there's always room to improve where ypu have holes. They have holes.

I'm hearing 3 years 33 mil for Jimmy with an option for a 4th year. Great deal for Phils if true.

From MLBTradeRumors:

Phillies and Lozano currently meeting, expect a deal to get done tonight.

NEPP: I would think there's no way, but then again Mini-Mart survived an entire year on the roster of the team with the best record in baseball.

I'd love it if that's the actual deal...

Jack- You were right and I'm certainly not arguing against that. I'm just saying that you are being a little disingenuous about the whole thing.

Like I said, the Phillies were top 5 until they came off the gas in the last ~2 weeks of the season. It doesn't change the fact that you were right, but you were right with an asterisk.

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