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Sunday, December 04, 2011

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If the Brew Crew grab Rollins, you can forget about a 6th consecutive NL East title. Possibly forget about a winning season.

if milwaukee signs Rollins....you have to sign Reyes. No doubt about it.

LNix wanted a 1year deal at league minimum, Rube insisted he sign this deal for 2 years, full NTC and a special kicker which awards Nix a free tractor and time at home on his farm for every game missed with back stiffness.

Nix Now Nuts Next?

Welp, forget about Reyes. Marlins offer is now over 100 mil. He is a miami marlin for sure.

Marlins offer 6 years $111 million to Reyes.

Um.... IIRC, RAJ offered Raul arbitration. Assuming there's no wink and a nod for him to decline that, what, exactly, happens if he accepts?

there has to be a "wink and nod", kevin. No way he would make that offer if there was any possibility that Raul would accept.

This is a Huh move i dont understand why Rube would want this guy. I can only think that Rube has some sort of trade thing going on.

I wouldn't mind letting Rollins go if they sign a vet for 1 year. Then bring up Galvis. The team isn't getting any younger and I for one don't want a shortstop 37 years of age. All of the stars other than Pence are on the wrong side of 30 and slowing down (read: injured) considerably. Time for some young blood, especially w/ another wild card slot.

Bert....this team can't win without more offense. Plain and simple. We can't downgrade offensively at SS for 2012.

This possible deal was posted by someone on Comcastsportsnet.com "ESPN mentioned Shane Victorino and Vance Worley for Adam Jones and Mark Reynolds".:

Did anyone else here this? I like Jones a lot. Reymolds, while he has great power, K's way too much. And I don't know if I'd give up Worley. Not too enamormed with Blaton and KK and the 4 & 5.

I agree with noname we cant absorb a possible .210 SS. Not saying that our offensive capabilities are bad, but i dont think we can afford a(possible).210 hitter at any position. On the flip side i also dont want a 37 year old SS.

I would be all in for that trade easily. Doubt if it would happen.

why would the orioles do that deal? I don't like it one bit tho.

A two-year deal for this guy? Honestly?

I don't even know what to say at this point. Nix is not worthy of starting on a playoff contender, simple as that. If you're going to play a crappy LF, why on earth wouldn't you give Dom Brown a chance to develop instead of play a guy you know sucks?

Apparently we're ok with absorbing a left-fielder with a career .288 OBP.

If this guy is our starting LF on Opening Day, I don't know what on earth the Phillies are thinking.

NNP: It was posted under Salibury's piece about the Nix deal. I didn't see it on TV, so I'm only asking. I do know they are looking for power at the 3b position, thus moving Polly to 2nd and playing Utley a 1st, which would probably save a little wear and tear on him.

It does make sense, but I agree, can't see the O's doing it.

Jack. He is a platoon with Mayberry. If you take Mayberry vs LHP and Nix against RHP last year you get this line (Matt Gelb via twitter):

Nix/Mayberry: (440 PA) .275/.316/.507, 24 HR

I will take that out of my LF next year (esp when they are making combined less than 1.5 mil (most likely))

DPatrone, you are assuming that Howard is out of baseball for all 2012? No way utley is moving to 1st.

NNP~ No I'm not assuming Howard is out for the year, my thought was until Howard returns, which is an unknown at this point.

Also, I'm sure sure Mayberry can handle 1st adequately.

But another underlying thought is that if they got a power hitting 3b-man Polly moves to the bench or gets traded. Though he was playing hurt most of last year (and I respect that), they can't be happy with his offensive numbers from what is generally a power position.

Polly has no trade value (and a full NTC i believe). How about Victorino for Hanley straight up-- haha

Isn't Nix the type of hitter that RAJ said in the post season press conference that he wanted to get away from?

Thys syning sycks.

DPatrone - If the Phils are planning to add another SP and if they do not expect Howard to contribute much in 2012, I like the deal.

The Phils would be selling high on Worley, who I think is a back-of-the-rotation pitcher.

The commitment to Reynolds is only one season, although there is a team option for 2013. He would give the team 35 HRs (along with 200 Ks and Dr. Strangeglove).

Jones is very young, looks good offensively already and should improve; more power than on-base guy, though. I don't know about his glove

Didn't look it up but I gues RAJ figures anyone with a line better than he had must be ok.

Until Howard comes back, Nix isn't a platoon player. He's a starting LF.

Jack~ Nix doesn't hit lefties well at all, strictly platoon.

Derek~ It's very possible that RAJ is looking to add a starter given the premium he puts on pitching. One can only wonder whom it might be.

For mind-boggling stupidity, it was going to be hard for RAJ to top the Brian Schneider signing. But giving a 2-year deal to this stiff, who has been signed to minor league deals in each of the 4 years before this one, might just do the trick.

Aside from 14 or 15 good swings a year, Nix is absolutely useless from an offensive perspective. His career splits against LHP are .181/.235/.271 -- which makes Mini-Mart look like Babe Ruth. You might be able to live with that if he could really rake against RHP, but a .747 career OPS does not remotely qualify as "really raking." RAJ has had a strange off-season.

Jack: There is no way in the world Nix will be our full-time left fielder. In fact, I'd be surprised if he ever makes a start against a left-handed pitcher.

As the roster is currently comprised, you'd probably see Wigginton at 1st & Mayberry in LF when a LHP is on the mound. Hell, you could even do Thome at 1st against LHP; he still hits them pretty well (at least he did last year). Personally, I think Mayberry has earned the right to be the full-time left-fielder, but that's just me.

NEPP - Back on the aging topic, in trying to answer the question about what happens to players' performances in their 30s, we should be looking at players who are still active in their 30s. If, instead, you consider all ballplayers, the overwhelming majority of these players will have been out of baseball by age 30. These players are irrelevant to a discussion of how players perform in their 30s.

Besides, does anyone really care about the aging patterns of Michael Martinez, Greg Golson and Putsy Caballero?

Considering only players since 1980 does raise the steroids issue, but I think clout identified the numerous offsetting relevant issues in the last thread.

So you would rather start Nix at LF instead of Mayberry. Doesnt make sense i admit i wasnt big on Mayberry but then he started to show his potential. I think i rather would just give Mayberry the shot then Nix.

When I first saw we signed Nix I was actually thinking "Hmm...good signing". Then I saw it was a 2 year deal. WTF Rube?!?

That "Orioles" talk is pure b8llsh8t. Unless they want somebody like Reynolds to replace Howard's strikeouts in the lineup. He's a friggin K machine. Every outlet in the country is talking about how the Orioles love Jones and are actively seeking to extend him because he is such a bargain for the team and they want to build around him.

2011 vs LHP:

Nix: .781 OPS
Mayberry: .785 OPS


I CANNOT wait to see UC pinch-hit for Mayberry with Lance Nix...it will happen a bunch of times.

***One can only wonder whom it might be.***

Wilson or Dervish maybe?

RG~ It may be but it's not from me.

Expected they would sign another LH bat since they weren't going to start Brown in LF this year. Not surprised that Amaro would give a 2-yr deal though to Nix though it is puzzling considering he has been a minor league signing the past 3 years. Probably ended up being a 2 yr/$8M deal when a 1 yr/$4.5M with an $500k buyout option would have sufficed.

One of the more absolutely baffling & foolish parts of Amaro's tenure as a GM is to sign every bench player to a 2-year deal.

Nix has been a steady enough offensive performer in the NL the last 3 years:

.254/.306/.461 (.767 OPS) with 35 HRs in 798 ABs

He's been productive though vs RHP pitching though:

.263/.312/.480 (.792 OPS) with 35 in 723 ABs

He's a pretty hardcore pull hitter though the short-porch in at CBP won't help him all that much.

He will be an upgrade defensively and on the basepaths over Ibanez in LF although he's a pretty brutal hacker at the plate who has a bunch of holes in his swing.

Doesn't have good plate coverage & struggles with stuff away on the outside corner of the plate. Ditto gas up in the zone who simply overmatch him.

He also chases an awful lot of crap out of the zone away and up too. Why he is generally a poor PH (just 16-74 which translates to .216 with 1 HR the past 3 years)and situational hitter. Means he is not a good option off the bench generally to PH or come into games late.

Also has a tendency to turn into a pumpkin after the ASB and not hit a lot. Hopefully Cholly gives him a bunch of PT early in April/May.

If he starts against RHP pitching especially pitchers who doesn't throw gas or have a good curveball, he can be productive. It means that Cholly though has to use in him spots where it makes sense where he can best be placed to succeed and that generally isn't a Cholly hallmark as a manager all of the time.

Why I haven't been crazy about the moves they have made this offseason because it is going to mean that Cholly is going to have to mix & match an awful lot next year with 1B/LF and his middle relief. It isn't a strength of his as a manager. At least he will have veteran players though on the bench who he should feel comfortable using.

Why do you sign Nix to a 2 year deal? I mean, seriously...its just insanity.

NEPP - It is just is foolish. If Nix flops this year (and there is always a decent chance that a guy who will be 32 might), then the Phils aren't stuck with him for '13.

Amaro has done some really good things here as the GM but I hate Amaro's fascination with 'versatility' and insistence on signing every single 30+ bench player to a guaranteed 2-yr deal.

BAP - I agree with you. Nix won't be a full-time starter in LF next year at the start of the year with Howard out. He'll sit with Mayberry/Wigginton in the lineup when a LHP is on the mound.

Personally, I hope this doesn't mean that Mayberry becomes primarily a bench fixture so that a flawed veteran like Nix or a guy who very well might be done (Wiggington) get a lot of PT next year in the 1st half at this expense.

It is interesting though how Amaro signed two guys (Nix and Wiggington) who have been pretty notorious for being fast starters though offensively and fading as the season goes on.

So, We brought Nix in as a backup LF/LH pinch-hitter. We have a far superior LH bat on the bench in Thome for late game situations so Nix is pretty useless there and he's a worse option than Mayberry or BenFran in LF so that doesnt make much sense either.

It also doesnt make much sense to use him in a platoon as Mayberry hits RHP better than him and he's a far superior defender to Nix.

Its an okay 4th/5th OF signing I guess...replaces Gload in that role.

By the way, anyone who thinks Nix's signing has ANYTHING to do with Dom Brown's future is nuts... http://jstolnis.wordpress.com/2011/12/04/phillies-sign-laynce-nix/

I'm not going to complain about this move. When Rube signed Schneider, I was advised that the backup catcher doesn't matter. And now that he's signed a slightly below mediocre platoon leftfielder, I'm sure that doesn't matter either.

Wake me up when signs someone who matters, which according to the cognoscenti on BL is never.

Oh, and a two year deal? It certainly worked for Scheider, Gload and Moyer. So, why not?

And why are we automatically assuming Mayberry can't start against righties? He didn't really get much of a chance to do it last year. I'd love to see Mayberry get the chance Francisco did last year. If it doesn't work out, THEN platoon with Nix.

NEPP - I imagine that Nix will be the first PH option off the bench if Cholly wants to save Thome for the 8th/9th.

I just hope that Mayberry is generally in the lineup everyday and that a declining veteran mediocrity like Wiggington doesn't take a bunch of PT form him. Mayberry is much better on the basepaths and my bet is defensively too even at 1B.

Laynce Nix, 31, hit a career-high 16 homers in 351 plate appearances with the Nationals last season

There's your answer. RAJ's convinced this ex-Gnat has finally figured it out.

Hard to believe, Harry...

Amaro has had to tinker with the roster due to Howard's injury and hasn't had a bunch of cash to do so. Why the Wigginton move wasn't a bad one (1 yr/$2M) since they didn't give up much of anything, got a little cash & there is little downside.

I think Wiggington is done and won't be productive (sub .700 OPS next year) but then he's gone. If he is really terrible (.600-.650 OPS), the Phils can move on at the ASB.

Nix can be productive too but the thing to not like about this deal is the 2nd guaranteed year. Really surprised if Nix got a 2nd guaranteed year from any other team. I much would rather seen an option with a $500k buyout.

Per MLBTradeRumors, The Marlins are basically agreed to a deal with Reyes for 6 years, $110 million.

So where does that leave Jimmy for contract demands?

I am glad somebody brought up Gload. The deal doesn't warm the cockles of my heart but at least this guy can sort of move around and field better than somebody like Gload warming the pine. This guy moves are better than Delucciesqe, probably more Ledeeian in nature.

Not on philles that's for sure

So where does that leave Jimmy for contract demands?

It's a damn good thing r00b isn't inclined toward offering declining players contracts for too many years & too much money.

Prediction: With Reyes off the market, Rube will panic and give Jimmy 5 years, $80 million.

Until Howard returns, Wigginton should get most of the playing time at first.

I think Mayberry will play LF primarily. The problem is that he has not been tested against the tougher right-handers. If Mayberry is only effective against southpaws and selected right-handers, that could mean a lot of playing time for Nix.

Wigginton
Schneider
Nix
Valdez
Martinez
Bowker


That's an awful lot of mediocrity on a team with a really high payroll. Wonder how many of them will make the roster on opening day. That is all.

Jack: Why is Nix going to be our starting left fielder based off this move?

It seems much more likely that Wiggy and Mayberry are your starting guys until Howard is healthy. Nix is most likely taking Francisco's spot.

2 years is a little crazy but honestly I don't know what the market was for other outfielders. I do know that Nix is a pretty good defensive outfielder and will give us another guy off the bench with some pop.

Nix is a better defender than BenFran and with Raul gone, it makes more sense to have a LHB on the bench instead of a RHB like BenFran.

So that is the rationale. The only issue I have is the 2nd year.

This move also makes me think that a Rollins deal is coming. Thome, Wiggy, and Schneider have all been brought in on the relative cheap. Sort of looks like they are trying to save some space for something.

Also, a possibility on the 2 years for Nix is that they view him as moving into Thome's role after Thome possibly retires (or is just gone) following the season.

NEPP - "Prediction: With Reyes off the market, Rube will panic and give Jimmy 5 years, $80 million."

Probably and condemn the franchise to mediocrity or worse in '14 and '15 with lots of money tied up guys in their mid-30s.

derek - I would rather see Nix at 1st than Wiggington. Wiggington shouldn't get the majority of PT anywhere but I have a feeling the Phils are going to give a ton of ABs next year (at least 350 ABs) and find out that's he largely cooked in the process.

Rockies couldn't get rid of him fast enough even if they had to eat more than half of his salary & get nothing in return in the process. They just wanted him off the roster.

aksmith: Wigginton, Thome, Nix, and Schneider have guaranteed contracts &, since there's no utility infielder among that group, I think it's fair to assume that Valdez will be tendered a contract. That's pretty much your opening day bench.

From a power standpoint, it's a better bench than last year and, if a few things break right (i.e., Thome having another decent year in him, Wigginton bouncing back a bit), I guess it could even be an all-around decent bench. But considering that Thome is 42, Wigginton has been in serious decline for several years, Schneider was wretched last year, and Nix is wretched every year, it's pretty easy for me to imagine the bench being a constant source of Beerleaguer vitriol yet again this year.

Its no guarantee that they tender Valdez. Rube may very well "save" $300K by going with Mini-Mart instead.

PREDICTION: Regardless of what Amaro does with Rollins it will be the worst move ever for many people.

He could get Rollins to sign a 3 year deal where Rollins pays us 500 dollars to play for us and people would complain it wasn't for 501 dollars.

This is not the greatest move ever, but he is an upgrade over BenFran and, as TTI noted, makes more sense on the bench with Ibanez gone.

Not sure all the whining and kvetching is necessary on this one.

I hope Cholly has the good sense to realize that Nix should almost never bat against a LHP. If a RHP is in the game, but a LHP is in warming in the pen, Thome is the guy to use since he still stands a chance to get on base if the opposing manager goes to the LOOGY. Nix is the guy you use when there's a righty in the game & no LOOGY warming up in the pen.

BAP - The question is how many players on the Opening Day roster will be under 30 and how this compared with the Wheeze Kids of '83?

Phils started one player (Dernier in CF) who was under 30 with Maddox on the bench.

"PREDICTION: Regardless of what Amaro does with Rollins it will be the worst move ever for many people.

He could get Rollins to sign a 3 year deal where Rollins pays us 500 dollars to play for us and people would complain it wasn't for 501 dollars."

There is a huge difference between giving JRoll a 3 yr/$42M deal and say a 5 yr/$70M deal.

I thought all along though that JRoll will sign for at least 4 yrs and that is where the Phils will settle (4 yrs/$52M).

It will be an overpay with the Phils getting crappy value in the last 2 years but unless the Phils want to gamble with Furcal staying healthy every other option on the FA market is a real downgrade including A. Gonzalez (who's cooked).

Ceiling on JRoll seems to be about 4 yrs/$60M and my bet is the Phils resign him towards the later part of his week at slightly less.

Does anyone know if Nix has an option left? Cause that would be a nice perk to have like Orr this past season.

Thome's deal was 1-year, right? Another reason Nix is around past next season.

Nothing smarter than to lock up borderline LH PH specialists two years out.

If either Ty Wigginton or Laynce Nix is starting regularly for your team, it's a bad sign.

That's really the only issue I have with the signing (besides the absurd 2nd year). If I'm going to play a crappy player in LF, I would make it Dom Brown because at least maybe he improves.

Assuming the Phils re-sign Rollins, the final bench move I'd like to see is a trade for a guy like Maicer Izturis, who is versatile and solid defensively and is very respectable offensively, but with little power. Izturis is good enough to start 100 games, if necessary, when Polanco, Rollins or Utley cannot play.

paying Jimmy Rollins any more than 3/35 is nuts. just don't do it. Crack is whack, Rube.

Sophist: Yeah, true, Rube needed to make sure we lock in our 24th man on the roster ahead of time. God knows we wouldn't be able to find another Laynce Nix next offseason. Below league-average hitters who can only play corner OF positions are the rarest of rare commodities.

The Reyes deal couldn't come at a better time for J-roll. Now he's in the driver's seat for anyone needing a SS with the winter meetings just beginning. I really think someone will get desperate and make a Werth type offer (not in terms of dollars/years, but in terms of being a ridiculous overpay).

RAJ has to be up for something, cause right now this team isn't as good as it was at this time last year.

I think Jimmy is a nice guy and has been a heck of a player but Rube is nuts if he gets a suped up deal now that Miami went nuts for Reyes. I just wonder now if he does get a crazy deal or if Rube panics and talks himself into trading somebody significant away for a SS via trade.
I know I am one of the few saying this but they can get by with a SS who is a great defensively but sucks with a bat.

Jack,
You know Nix will turn into 2008 J-Werth as soon as he takes the field for the Phils. Book it. HAHAHAHAHAHA

you are incorrect RG. For two years now the offense has failed them when it matter most. THey can't simply get worse at their weakness and expect better results.

Count me out for glove only SS.

At least Nix is a solid defender in LF. That alone will make him bareable to watch over a guy like BenFran.

Erick Ayber's name came up in rumors last year. I wonder what it would take to get him.

***Erick Ayber's name came up in rumors last year. I wonder what it would take to get him.***

What's he asking for? Just add 30% more money and an extra year to that.

I think reyes getting 6 yrs should help legitimize a 4 yr max length deal to jroll

Jimmy was nearly a 4 win (3.8 WAR) player in 2011.

Say he has a standard decline of .5 per year over a 4 year deal. That's:

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0

That's 11 Wins over the contract. At the current rate of around $5 million per win, that's right in line with a 4 year, $60 million deal.

So, in a way, that's about his real "value" from a sabermetric standpoint.

Giving a guy that can't even aveage 130 starts a year over 3 years a 6 year deal with a $17.6 Million AAV is absurd. It will likely come back to kill the Fish...especially when they're averaging 18K attendance in 2 years.

I am not so sure Ben is gone. Who would be the RH bat off the bench on days that RFD starts(which should be most days)? Ben had decent PH numbers last year.

They'll just sign Pujols and Buehrley, win the WS, then trade them next December anyway.

Wigginton is RH.

Yes noname and when Rollins was the "Rollins version of great" during those "needed times" the rest of the team didn't show up and they still lost. Doesn't matter. A declining offense-great glove SS can be just as good as a mediocre or unestablished offense-great glove guy. I don't pretend to know what Rube will do.

NEPP: Thanks. For some reason, I was thinking he was LH.

The Reyes deal isn't all that bad. He's an above-average offensive and defensive player at a premium position.

I have questions about whether he stays healthy, but there's no doubt that his performance on the field warrants the sort of contract he received.

A big deal like this is more likely to be bad than it is good, by nature. But the fact that Reyes is getting that much less than Ryan Howard, despite being a significantly better player when on the field, should put the deal in some perspective. It's not likely to turn out great, but it's at least defensible based on performance, unlike Howard's.

I would say that the Phils are in a better position to absorb a bad contract. But then I note that the Marlins have been effectively stealing money from MLB for years now--so they have to have a lot saved up, right?

Hopefully it's mostly a Nix/Wiggy platoon at first with Mayberry full time in LF to start the season, I don't think I'm alone in wondering what Mayberry (young and terrific ABs - something this team could use) can do over a full season.

Actually, Goody's post about Francisco reminds me that the opening day bench probably will NOT be Nix, Wigginton, Thome, Schneider, and Valdez, as I posited earlier. After all, Howard will start the season on the DL, so one of the above will probably be in the starting lineup. That means there still could be room on the roster for Francisco or Mini-Mart. So in case anyone was worried about losing those guys, there's still hope.

How to turn even the most ardent Ryan Howard hater into a full-fledged Ryan Howard lover: a Laynce Nix/Ty Wigginton platoon at 1st base:

I don't see Wigginton or Nix as anything but marginal mediocrities at this point in their careers. Gathering up a bunch of mediocre players does not equal one good player.

Four or five wrongs don't make a right. Anyone see Nix or Wigginton being the difference maker in a playoff game? I could see Thome being that. But nobody else who has been brought in or brought back so far this year.

bap: Yup. If the answer at 1B is Wigginton/Nix, I will write a post on here everyday about how much the team misses Ryan Howard. In fact, if JW lets me, I will personally write a heading post about the inestimable value of Ryan Howard and how he is a giant among men.

I won't defend the contract, of course, because. Well. That just kind of goes without saying. You'd probably be committed to a mental hospital at this point for defending the contract.

Bill Ladson who I assume is the Nationals version of Zolecki is reporting that the Nats also offered Nix a two year deal. Nix chose the Phils because of the chance of more playing time at 1st and of.


So there's that.

Rube wanted Nix and gave him the two years necessary It's typical Phillies behavior to covet a player and do what they have to in order to get their man. Versatility, clubhouse presence and the love of off day charity functions are more of a determinant in deciding who the Phils sign than other factors such as advanced metrics. It is how it is in the Rube era.

Thome, Wigginton and Nix.

3 clones. All swing for the fences and all will strikeout a ton. All are past 30 and none of them have any speed.

What are we doing? Is this the plan?

"A big deal like this is more likely to be bad than it is good, by nature. But the fact that Reyes is getting that much less than Ryan Howard, despite being a significantly better player when on the field, should put the deal in some perspective."


You just can't help yourself Jack can you?

We just suffered through a season where we had a pinch hitter who could not run the bases or play defense. So we signed Thome who fits the same bill. Then we follow that up with 2 more guys who play marginal defense and strike out a lot. Color me underwhelmed so far this off-season.

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