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Monday, December 05, 2011

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JRoll in anything but red pinstripes just seems blasphemous.

vs RHP: (by defensive position, not lineup)

2 Chooch
3 Mayberry
4 Utley
5 Polanco
6 FA SS
7 Nix
8 Vic
9 Pence

LH: Thome
RH: Wiggity
BN: Valdez
BN: Schenider
BN: Francisco

vs LHP:

2 Chooch
3 Wiggity
4 Utley
5 Polanco
6 FA SS
7 Mayberry
8 Vic
9 Pence

LH: Thome
RH: Francisco
BN: Nix
BN: Schnieder
BN: Valdez

I think Francsico is still here, as of today at least.

The good news for all BL readers is that, assuming Jimmy Rollins gets his deal from the Phils, Ryan Howard's contract discussions will taper off to nothing.

J-roll in Milwaukee? C'mon, the man needs a bigger stage than that. Especially since Fielder seems unlikely to come back and his replacement is likely to be 4A slugger Mat Gamel. Even with Jimmy, it's going to be tough for them to get back to the playoffs with St. Louis and Cincinnati in the division. If Jimmy demands 5 years, though; I'd rather see the Phillies sign a 1 year stop gap and re-evaluate next year (Erik Aybar in 2013?)

Yeah, the Phillies are running with the big dogs now, but let's not lose our identity. Jimmy Rollins belongs in a Phillies uniform. If it's gotta be five years, so be it. Show him the money.

I'm torn on J-Roll...The fan in me wants him back but the business side of me doesn't think it makes that much since Rube is in overspending mode.

I understand the pros and cons of keeping Jimmy in red pinstripes, but at this point it feels like a mistake to let him go.

I'm nervous about "Jimmy Rollins Week" and I will continue to be until Rollins signs here or elsewhere.

After that, I'm going to most likely be angry. Either because Rube overpaid or simply because Rollins is no longer in red pinstripes.

Put me firmly in the StopGap Posse. You can't give this dude 4 or 5 years.

And to recap: Sooooleeeerrr Powwweeerr!

He'll sign with the Phils, and assuming the Free Freddie Galvis train gets going, slide over to 3rd in a year ot two.

Oh the irony. Every time I take the youngin to daycare (in suburban South Jersey) so I can work during the day, I notice on the sign-in sheet that there are around 10 kids with the first name Chase (various ethnicities and surnames born within the last 5 or so years). Now I see that Chase has his own kid today and he names him Ben, which just so happens to be the name of another 10 kids in the school.

Maybe five years from now the room will be filled with Laynces.

Meyer - or Yoenises?

(I would love for the Phils to sign Cespedes for the limerick possibilities alone.)

I really believed that the Cespedes people would have the Big Top erected at the Dallas Hilton for the meetings by this time. Yoenis - A man without a country.

I realize what it could mean in the future, but in my eyes, Jimmy is the franchise player for the Phils. He's the person so associated with this team. Drafted. Minors. Majors. Everything.

Though not on the same parallel fully, he's basically Philly's Derek Jeter.

I'm not saying to throw him $125M or something, but find a way -- even if it's 5 years. Sometimes, you have to overpay a bit for the "Franchise" guy, and Jimmy is it. It can be dealt with as time goes on.

I don't always agree with overpaying (ie: Howard), but for someone like Jimmy, the years might have to be done. Him in another uniform would upset me more than seeing most in another uniform.

Poor Ruben was left with the onus
Of funding a sizeable of a bonus
And whether a lack
In the size of a sack
Of cojones could land him a Yoenis.

Meyer: He's got the Dominican Republic...

Phils in on Aramis Ramirez per MLBtraderumors.

Supposedly the Phils are meeting with Ramirez at the Winter Meetings too. Sounds like they are considering other options for the offensive hit they will take if JRoll departs & they are forced to go with an A. Gonzalez at SS instead.

Now that the Reyes shoe has dropped, it does feel like the Phillies are fixing to vastly overpay Rollins in terms of years. Like everyone else, I want Rollins in Phillies pinstripes too -- both because it feels right and because, as mediocre as he has become, it's still a big drop-off to the next best guy. But the idea of paying Rollins $15M to be an Edgar Renteria caliber player in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (if not sooner) is simply ludicrous. And, contrary to Beerleaguer conventional wisdom, Rollins is no longer a game-changing defensive shortstop and hasn't been for a few years. He fields the balls hit to him & has a terrific arm. But if he has to range a few feet to the side on a hard-hit ball, it's a hit.

If the Phillies decide to go with Ramirez at 3b, anyone think Polly would be able to play SS??

I kinda like the Ramirez/Gonzalez left side idea, actually. Sign Valdez, and have Polanco practice some SS in ST to make him the second UT.

MaDubbs - Can Polly play short? (Despite my silly suggestion 5 minutes ago): No. Not really.

"if he has to range a few feet to the side on a hard-hit ball, it's a hit."

bap - Your wet-blanketism is in mid-season form. Careful; don't wanna peak too soon.


BAP - I am sure it pains Sabean that he can't massively overpay for JRoll to the tune of 5 yrs/$70M

Andy: Unfortunately, I had to waste a lot of wet-blanketism on the Brian Schneider and Laynce Nix moves. But I still think I'll have enough in the tank for spring training & the regular season.

bap: "But if he has to range a few feet to the side on a hard-hit ball, it's a hit."

Its a shame that we really can't argue this other than opinion - but i disagree.

Rollins makes that sliding play up the middle better than 90% of the league and his arm let him plant on his backhand better than 95% of it.

I tend to think kicking the tires on Ramirez is doing some due diligence, but also could mean some apprehension to spending too much on JRoll. Could also be another case of saying to JRoll "we can go in other directions".

MaDubbs: Polly at short? uh, no.

How many hernia surgeries can a guy have?

I suspect no team would take a chance on a Polly trade until he proves he is over the surgeries in ST or mid-season. How the heck can older, worn out players keep playing SS or 3rd? I never saw Cal play outside of all-star games and neither J Roll or Polly move like Ozzie.

Aramis Ramirez is 34. So I like Ruben to give him a 6-year deal. We all know players don't peak until age 38.

That said, the pursuit of Ramirez tells us that the Front Office believes what many of us have seen, but a few still somehow refuse to believe: Polanco simply isn't good enough anymore. He's still fine defensively, but he's just a very bad offensive player.

A-Ram will made 16 mill last yr.. What would it take to sign him after a VERY good yr last yr?

Polly would be a perfect bench option for this team.

Robby J - It was $14.6M based on the 5 yr/$73M he got in '07.

Ramirez won't get more than $15-16M/year. The issue is just how many year you have to guarantee given his age (34 next year in May) and his recent injury issues. It probably will take 4 yrs at around $15M/year.

To me, the interest in Ramirez is a red herring. I think Reyes signing gives a little leverage to Rollins, therefore, the Phils are "interested" in Ramirez in order to regain some (albeit, very little) leverage. They are basically informing J-Roll that they have a Plan B in place should they not be able to sign Rollins. So Rollins is essentially "on the clock" to get a deal done with the Phils before any deal with Ramirez is made.

Obviously, this is pure speculation. But it does make some sense from the Phillies perspective.

I love in the last thread that even after I said 2 years to Nix was "a little crazy" I was still deemed a FO apologist. Too often on here people let their own agendas get in the way of a discussion. Kinda sad.


Not sure what to think of the news the Phillies are in on Ramirez. Not in regards to him offensively or the type of player he is, but it seems to indicate that maybe they view Rollins out of play now, but also means someone has to be moving somewhere because there is going to be some money shelled out if they possibly bring in Ramirez AND Rollins.

If they do bring in Ramirez here is a crazy thought: do you move Polanco over to second and have Utley man first until Howard is back?

R. Sounds about right unless Chase is retiring to rear the little Ben.

Ruben might be using this to get the ball rolling on the J-Roll deal, put a little heat on his agent. If he wants to stay with the Phillies, it WILL have to be on a 3 year deal!

If we sign Ramirez, Valdez CAN'T play SS all season long, and as the bench currently stands no one else can play SS. Obviously assuming and hoping that Mini Mart is gone. They won't carry Galvis on the big league roster to platoon with Valdez, unless he gets a majority of the starts.

Ron Santo elected to the Hall of Fame.


Seriously?!?

by the way, Denny B just called Lance Nix and Jim Thome "clones".

Does everyone just ignore him or are we really just letting that slide?

I thought it was so ridiculous of a comp that it didnt even warrant a comment. Yes, the future HOF 1B who outhit our current 1B last year is completely the same as a borderline 5th OF.

lorecore - If you ignore the trolls, they might go away.

k, got it, ignore. Just checking.

A-Ram signing with the Phils doesn't make sense to me unless they think Polly could handle SS, which seems just crazy. Maybe Detroit would take Polly back to free payroll. Who knows. This is all very confusing.

Ron Santo in the HOF? Sure, that's okay? If you combine his impact on the game as a player and as a beloved broadcaster, its fine with me. I know that, technically, HOF voters are not supposed to combine different factors like that; but, I like that they do it anyway. Its been done before with HOFers like Rizzuto, Ashburn, Mazeroski.

Ramirez makes some sense, for obvious reasons. But I do wonder how we'd make roster room for him, considering that we just gave guaranteed major league deals to Schneider, Wigginton, Nix, and Thome and, by signing Ramirez, we'd be relegating Polanco to the bench. That makes a 5-man bench already, plus a backup shortstop (after we've found a starter) makes 6.

That means we'd either be down to a 6-man pen, which isn't really viable over a full season, or we'd have to trade someone -- with Polanco being the most obvious candidate, though we'd undoubtedly have to eat at least half his salary.

According to Crasnick, the Cardinals don't plan on pursuing Rollins. The list of suitors shrinks.

lorecore - denny b's main point though was that the Phils have acquired 3 guys who have a fair amount in common - 30+ guys who are plodders (Nix has average speed at best), swing for the fences, and aren't going to get on base much either via BB (Thome's a bit of an exception) or AVG (.250 or below is what you will likely get out of them).

It isn't that hard to see what he was trying to say.

Thome did not out Howard last year. He had a .003 advantage in OPS but he only played in 93 games becasue he was physically incapable of playing in more games. The more a 40 year old man plays the worse he plays. So you cannot even compare Howard to Thome. Please be serious. If Howard plays half a season this year and has a good season will you hype it up as his best year or will you hold the missed time against him?

"out hit"

I heard the guys on MLBTV discussing this so I'd throw this out there:

What's the possibility the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez? And, if so, would it be better for the Phillies to trade for Hanley Ramirez than to resign Jimmy Rollins?

Please, let's not talk about Orlando Hudson. No interest.

Nix is a legit OF defensively, and is 10 years younger than Thome -- who just last season had an OBP below .300 and can only hit RHP.

Thome is cant play D...anywhere, but gets on base at a great clip and bascially hits any/all pitching.

I'll stop there, not worth anyone's time.

I made a crude estimate that the Phils' bench players had 1,200 PAs in 2011. Assuming that number increases only a little in 2012, then the bench would be equal to two full-time position players.

Major-league-average players put up a WAR of about 2.0 over the course of a season. So, if the bench produces a combined WAR of close to 4.0 in 2012, we should be happy with its production.

I think a bench of Thome, Wigginton, Nix, Schneider and Valdez would come up short. If, however, the Phils replace Valdez with a player of Maicer Izturis' caliber, the Phils' bench would be a plus.

I'd watch what you say lorecore, you may be labeled as a FO apologist for saying Nix is legit defensively.

Godfather: Depends how much the Fish want for the Phils inking Hanley on a 3yr/$45M deal.

Completely legit discussion point.

I would trade for HanRam...but I wouldnt pay top dollar. He's coming off a bad season beset with a shoulder and leg issues and he's a below average defender at SS. We'd be better off putting him in LF or maybe even 3B.

Santo belongs in the hall.

NEPP - Have you ever looked at his OPS+? From 1963 - 1973 he never was below 100. Plus he could field. He was consistent and exemplified baseball to a generation.

I have no questions at all.

MG: Thome just had a .361 OBP last year. The year before that he was .412. The year before that it was .366.

Please explain how that means he won't get on base much.

Nix is a good defender in LF and he can handle RF and CF on a limited spot-start basis. That, at least, is not a concern with signing him.

His solid glove is part of what's kept him in the majors.

Is Hanley another one if those lollygagging, phone it in, reliant on talent, no pep, miserable sonovabitches we all know and hate here on Beerleaguer?

Thome can't 'hit all pitching' and the big difference is that he BB at an incredibly high rate to go along with a high K rate.

There is a lot more these 3 guys have in common than not offensively.

Andy, I like Santo and I'm well aware of his offensive contributions (even adjusted for era) but I think he falls squarely in the Hall of Very Good along with guys like Jim Rice.

He got in because he was a nice guy, a good broadcaster and because he passed away.

If they're gonna lower the bar with guys like Rice and Santo, can they at least give my man Dwight Evans a nod?

MG- Lorecore was just trying to be clever. Instead, he ended up looking like an ass.

Wigginton, Thome and Nix are very similar players, if you actually know anything about baseball. Swing hard and swing for the fences. Chuckles will love them.

With those three, plus RFD, Brown, Howard and Halladay we'll have a team that will look great in a airport. Those are some impressive looking men. Nix might have the best guns in the game now.

***Is Hanley another one if those lollygagging, phone it in, reliant on talent, no pep, miserable sonovabitches we all know and hate here on Beerleaguer?***

Hanley is...but from all accounts Reyes is a Victorino type showboater who at least plays hard.

Good move for the Fish if they turn around and flip Hanley to fill another need...Reyes is his superior offensively and defensively.

Only when he's in another uniform RG

ARam makes sense if Utley plays 1B, Polanco plays 2B, and Mayberry stays in LF. If it happens, it indicates that Howard is expected to be out until at least July. Can Rube make the money work?

***Thome and Nix are very similar players, if you actually know anything about baseball. Swing hard and swing for the fences. Chuckles will love them.***

Career BB%
Thome: 17.0%
Nix: 5.7%

Totally the same approach at the plate.

denny b: how about you look up all three BB%, K% and OBP? You'll notice your claim is completely bogus, as none of them match.

I could go on and on, especially since 1 is an OF, 1 is a corner INF, and 1 is a DH - but doubt you are actually willing to debate any of this other than stick to your opinion of:

if you try to hit HR and are over the age of 30 - you are basically the same player

NEPP - That's the one thing that stands out. Thome/Wigginton/Nix are likely to all hit .250 or less next year, have modest to decent power numbers, and % K a ton.

Thome's will K at a high clip but he will also lay off borderline pitches too. Nix and Wigginton won't do that often. Especially Nix.

Personally I think Wigginton is done but I can understand why Amaro made the move ($2M). Thome wasn't a bad move as long as he can stay healthy & the only thing about Nix I wasn't crazy about was the 2nd guaranteed year but he supposedly got that too from the Nats.

Howard's injury forced Amaro's hand a bit and he has had to cobble together bit pieces while trying to upgrade the bench. With the exception of the Schneider resigning (which I hated), I generally like the approach Amaro has taken this offseason so far.

I love that Nix being offered two years by the Nats is justification for us giving him two years.

If the Brewers offered Rollins 7 years, does that mean we should go ahead and offer 8? Of course not.

One team making a terrible decision does not justify another one doing the same thing.

"After that, I'm going to most likely be angry. Either because Rube overpaid or simply because Rollins is no longer in red pinstripes."

Had to chuckle at this because I believe that's how I'll feel also. I'll be ticked off if he leaves but I also know a three year deal isn't going to happen. I had thought four might fly, but after Reyes, no go.

If paying for a FA or watching a FA leave cause equal problems for you, you aren't ready to root for an elite team.

To be specific about Ramirez, he is in the middle of a 6 year deal worth 70 million. He's going to be paid 15-16 million for the next 3 seasons. This is the money Jose Reyes is now earning with the Marlins. And Jimmy Rollins will not cost that much. The advantage is obvious: it's a shorter deal for a younger player, a shortstop you would not have under contract until he's 37 (which is J-Roll's case).

However, I believe Ramirez's poor 2011 campaign was not a fluke. This is his statline for the preceding 4 years (BA/OPB/SLG/BABIP)
2008:
.301/.400/.540/.329
2009:
.342/.410/.543/.379
2010:
.300/.378/.475/.327
2011:
.243/.333/.379/.275

I'm aware Ramirez was hurt for much of 2011, but that's still a steep decline in 2010 from his peak production. Before he's hit his prime, I might add. He returned to his rookie year production level in 2010. I'll give you another player who showed the same mix of power and speed, then promptly crashed at age 27 (same age as Ramirez): Juan Samuel.

I don't believe Ramirez will ever regain his 2008/2009 form. He might regain his 2010 form, but is he worth that at 16 million? Given his defensive liabilities and personality?

I cannot wait to accept arbitration and join this group in the outfield.

"If you combine his impact on the game as a player and as a beloved broadcaster, its fine with me. . . . Its been done before with HOFers like Rizzuto, Ashburn, Mazeroski."

Not sure that's why any of these guys got in. Rizzuto's hte biggest mystery as he was the only blind man I ever heard call a baseball game. Mazeroski wasn't even a broadcaster. He may have been the greatest fielding 2B ever to play and he was pretty good with the stick, measured against his peers. Also hit the biggest HR anyone ever hit. Pirates still have him teach 2B to turn the double play in spring training.

Do we have a $$ number for Nix yet? If its something like 2 years, $3-4 million total, I dont really see it as something to get upset about.

This is a guy that's made $1.7 million for his career. A few million over 2 years should be enough.

Rizzuto got voted in because all of his buddies were on the Veterans Committee. Not really a surprise. I think 80% of those 1950s Yankees teams are HOFers now.

I can't quite grasp the logic that, because a 28-year old star player coming off his best season got a 6-year deal, a 33-year old player in decline will/should get 5 years.

Should? No

Will? Probably simply because of supply and demand.

Bob-How is getting a 6 yr deal at age 28 (Reyes) assure J-Roll of more than a 4 yr deal at age 33? Rollins will get no more than 4 guaranteed POSSIBLY w/ a 5th yr option.I really think he maxes out at 4 yrs total with or without option. I agree w/ some posters here that A-Ram is a nice thought, but is a red herring to move J-Roll into some kind of decision..Ramirez is a nice backup plan if you're sending Polly packing in a package deal for a SS. (Hanley or some other better than avg starter).

2 years worth 2.5mill

We're whining over $2.5 million over 2 years?


Yeah, who gives a damn. That's pocket change for a team with a $170 million payroll.

Rube's a thrifty genius.

Fair deal, he's got a little upside, albeit not that much. Seems like a nice bench bat.

Also have to think that part of the Ramirez meeting is being able to keep Jimmy from having almost all the leverage (as pointed out by B-Beard), as well as some sincere interest as a 3B option.

I suspect Chase has about as much interest in playing first base on any kind of regular basis as Eskimos do in air conditioners. Particularly since the Nix signing may provide Mayberry a bit more flexibility.

Hugh,
Regardless of your opinion of the quality of his work, Rizzuto was indeed a long-time, beloved figure in MLB's largest market. I believe that impacted the voters.

As for Mazeroski, the 'other factor' that I was thinking of was that, as you referenced, he produced one of the most dramatic, historic moments in MLB history. I think that moment, in combination with his 'very good' playing career, is what got him into the Hall.

i'm whining because Nix sucks and is worse than DOM, dont care about money.

$1.25M per year may not be a lot of money, but the 2-year deal will make the Phillies reluctant to dump him if he proves to be unspeakably hideous in Year 1 -- which seems likely considering that he has been unspeakably hideous in every other season of his career.

And his presence on the roster could easily create an artificial barrier to calling up Domonic Brown -- especially in Year 2.

2 yr/2.5M total is less than they would have paid Francisco this year. I would have thought it was closer to $3.5-$4M.

Looks like Rube is doing some shopping again at the 'Value Village' this offseason.

I just got this newsflash from the future "Rollins and 2 time MVP Dom Brown again refuse to take part in Astro World Series jersey presentation ceremony with President Gingrinch."

I hate to be nominated for "President of the Laynce Nix Fan Club", but i don't think I'd go as far to say he's been "unspeakably hideous in every other season of his career."

In Y2N (Year 2 of Nix), Thome is likely to be gone, so Nix would be moving into his spot, thus not creating a barrier to Brown.

@Bay_area_phan

This will probably help:

Rollins is the best defensive shortstop available now, there are several teams after his services (which automatically increases the price), and he's got the best injury history. He's also an above average hitter for a shortstop. OPS for SS is typically .700-.710, J-Roll usually bats 20-30 points above that.

No one actually thinks J-Roll is worth that money. It's just the price of purchase.

We have 2 RH corner outfielders...so instead of keeping BenFran, we went out and got a LH bench bat.

Yet people are shocked/pissed at the signing. If Nix had more patience or could hit LHP even a little bit, he'd be a starter. Bench players have flaws...usually big ones. That's why they're bench players.

Who are the teams interested in JRoll? Phillies and Brewers? Cards say they are not pursuing him. Nothing has really changed with Reyes signing with Miami.

Rollins will get $12-15 million a year over several years for the same reason bottle water sells for $5 at a concert.

GG will teach Nix to spank LH'ers the opposite way and he'll go full-time LF.

Does anyone really think the Brewers will break the bank for Rollins?

Per MLBTradeRumors, we're actively shopping Polanco in order to sign Aramis Ramirez.

Here's the quote:

The Phillies are actively trying to trade third baseman Placido Polanco, a rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That'd open up third base for free agent Aramis Ramirez, for whom the Phillies are reportedly strong players. Polanco, 36, is owed $7.25MM through 2012.

Good luck Rube.

Phils are trying to move Polanco to clear room for Ramirez. Just another reason to never believe anything RAJ says to the media.

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