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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

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Nothing like a 1 year stop at Coors Field to get your career back on track for a struggling reliever.

"...with Dan Lozano deep into the night." Your famous last words, RAJ.

There used to be a stripper on Bourbon Street named Gio. Is that the one Rube is chasing?

Breslow coming off less than desired season(1.5 WHIP), but career lines are decent, under control or two more years. Not drastic LHB/RHB splits, but seems to keep them off the bases pretty well (.296 OBP against vs LHB)

Not sure what asking price is - cant imagine much - and will go out on limb and says he's more trustworthy than Joe Savery or Juan Perez.

They need to parlay Breslow into the Jewish Heritage Night promo.

Well when Rube is 'persistent' on a player, you know what that means. In the next few days we'll find out he's traded both the Lakewood and Reading franchises to Oakland for Gio.

krod taking arb.........

Verducci is reporting that CJ has a 6 yr contract offer from Marlins..

Ortiz did too...kind of a surprise there as well.

My bet is that Madson ends up accepting as well.

I have to guess that KRod taking Arbitration royally fvcks the Brewers off-season plans up. Doesnt he automatically get a raise on his $18 million (?) salary?

Ortiz did too...kind of a surprise there as well.

My bet is that Madson ends up accepting as well.

I have to guess that KRod taking Arbitration royally fvcks the Brewers off-season plans up. Doesnt he automatically get a raise on his $18 million (?) salary?

If we trade for Breslow, and Schwimer makes the roster, we'd better damn well hope we don't get into any 15-inning game on Yom Kippur.

I still don't think Madson accepts arb. Why would he? He was only paid like $4.5 million last year. He MIGHT get up to $8 million for 1 year.

Even with a depressed market right now, he'll still get something like 3/30 from someone. If he can't even get that, then yes, I think it's safe to say Ruben made a big mistake with Papelbon.

Sorry...the $17.5 Million I was thinking of was the vesting option that didnt vest. He "only" made $12.16 million last year. So that's a good chunk of change the Brewers no longer have.

NEPP: K-Rod and Ortiz both made huge salaries last year, which is why it makes sense for them to accept arb.

But Madson didn't make much at all (comparatively speaking). So why would he accept?

Next year's closer market is probably better than this years...maybe roll the dice on another year setting up and then go for broke in 2013?

The options are dwindling rapidly for him.

Not much of a surprise with Ortiz. Rosenthal(?) was speculating that Krod could force a trade if he's put in set up role.

***The Pirates designated catcher Jason Jaramillo for assignment today upon announcing the Erik Bedard signing, according to a press release. Jaramillo, 29, hit .276/.368/.373 in 155 Triple-A plate appearances this year. ***

Just because...

***Rosenthal(?) was speculating that Krod could force a trade if he's put in set up role. ***

What can he really do? Refuse to play? The Brewers would LOVE that as they'd just void the contract.

Breslow? Sounds like a bait and switch by Beane.

Of all the Phillies rumors out there, I would like Madson accepting arb and the Phillies not trading him the best.

Jason Jaramillo and Erik Bedard
If those names just don't scream "Winner" I don't know what does.

If Madson accepted arb I would have a hard time watching him close games on the days Papelbon wasn't available. Wouldn't you?

I have no idea whether Madson accepting arbitration would screw up our budgeting or push us over the luxury tax (I imagine it would). But, putting all that aside, I'd be thrilled if he accepted. Despite the rumors, however, I have trouble imagining a scenario where he would ever accept.

Hanley is apparently available. Not many choices out there for him at SS. Maybe Marlins would accept Polly and B Prospect for Hanley. Huge Salary relief in their pursuit for Fielder/Pujols

We would still have to sell Hanley on playing third base.

Why would Hanley play 3B for anyone? I'd kick the tires on him if J=Roll continues to drag his a$$ about re-signing.. Blanton plus a decent prospect to allow us to absorb the difference in salary between Blanton and Hanley

Noname:

Hanley instead of Rollins. That's the only way it makes sense, and boy does that make a lot of things better.

Getting Hanley only makes sense if we don't get Rollins. If he doesn't want to play third for the Marlins, why would he want to play third in Philly?

I would love Madson to accept arb as well, but it isn't happening.

His options may be "dwindling," but some team is going to have the bargain of the year when they pick him up for half of what Papelbon got. And half of what Papelbon got is still far more guaranteed money than he would make in arbitration.

Yes, Blanton and Polly for Hanley. Why wouldn't the Marlins do that?!

Had the Marlins really not thought this through before they signed Reyes?

It seems hard to me to believe that you would sign a guy who plays the same position as your franchise player, who you just signed longterm within the last couple of years, and not have discussed it with him beforehand. Or not have explored options to move him beforehand.

Right?

Either there's a number of posters who don't think INF defense is important for a team built on pitching or have no freakin' clue about the defensive talents of most major league players.

I suspect it's the latter.

BedBeard--You may think that the Marlins wouldn't trade for Blanton and/or Polly but if Hanley's not going along with their plan and causes a PR nightmare... what choices do they have, other than suspend him? They lose a good amount of their leverage, no?

teams will be knocking on the Marlins door for him.

Clout: Presumably then you prefer Freddy Galvis playing SS for the Phillies to Hanley Ramirez?


Ken_Rosenthal #Marlins prez Samson: Hanley did not ask for contract to be restructured. Hanley not getting traded. Hanley critical part of team. #MLB


By "critical", I think he means he is apt to criticize it.

Clout,

Stop trying to be a bully. Defense is plenty important. I realize this. I suspect others realize it too.

It seems there are some jacka$$es -- well, one -- that don't seem to understand tradeoffs. The comparison is between a defensive downgrade balanced against an offensive upgrade; it's not just about a defensive downgrade being unimportant.

By the way, I know defensive statistics are borderline heresy, but at Fangraphs you can review the defensive ratings for teams for the last several years. It surely paints the picture that defense is not so important to outweigh all offensive improvements. Link: look for yourself

Marlins get Buerle. 4 year 58 mil

Buerhle, whoops

RG--Sounds like the first example of damage control for the Marlins w/ Hanley.. There will be more.

Jack: No. Do you? I just don't think terrible defense makes sense for a team built on pitching.

I suspect the correlation between the "importance of fielding" with the "importance of pitching" to be negative. Why would you believe otherwise? Seriously.

Buddy: Shortstop is the most important defensive spot in baseball.

If Hanley's offense outweighed his defensive shortcomings, why does nearly every scout in baseball say he should move positions? Why were the Marlins talking about moving him even before they signed Reyes?

Clout: I'm not ignorant, or at least not ignorant of the value of a shortstop defensively. But it's about tradeoffs. If defense was so monumentally important than Hanley would have never made it through as a SS; he would have moved already.

Ideally he should be at another position. That's irrefutable. But decisions are not made in a vacuum.

I'm honestly curious about your pitching-fielding beliefs (above). I believe that pitching and hitting and (to a lesser degree) fielding are all substitutes and that a team's objective function would combine them in such a way that corner solutions (all hitting; no pitching/fielding, etc.) are suboptimal. Preferences are probably quite convex so that you want at least "solid" ability in each category.

I can't wait to see Rollins popup 3 times in a September rain game to Buehrle and clout defends Rollins because of his immaculate defense keeping the game 2-0 until the 11th inning.

If (big if) the end result is Jimmy stays with the Phils, I will likely be irate and griping with everyone else about what it's going to take to make it happen.

But the fan in me was glad to read JW's post that things are looking like he will return.

Rationally, there simply does not seem to be any way the Phils won't end up with a significant downgrade at SS this year unless Jimmy does come back. These Phils are built to win now.

And more subjectively, his post season experience, his clutch performances in the postseason (I still remember how shaken Broxton was after Jimmy's walk off hit), his swagger, and his long standing as the initial member of this team's nucleus are assets as well - even though harder to quantify. If Charlie could only get him to bat 6th.

Sounds like Pujols is going to go back to the Cardinals for somewhere around 230 million over 10 years.

So get your umbrellas ready people. There is a flood of posts bashing Howard's deal only a few hours away. Perhaps we can get some Rube is a dummy posts too. That would be like a hurricane followed by a blizzard.

Clout: No. But I also don't think terrible offense makes sense for a team trying to win a championship.

Here's a question--if all we do is re-sign Rollins, and leave Polanco at 3rd, where do you think this team will rank in offense, considering Howard is likely to miss half the year?

Remember that last year you guaranteed we would finish in the top 5. We finished 7th. My prediction is we will finish outside the top 5 once again in offense, without a big upgrade somewhere.

97.5 is reporting that Rollins is signed.

Stark denies that Jim.

The marlins in full buy a world series title and then blow-up the team the following year mode. Or maybe they've learned?

Dan Duquette is reporting it as well. Don't kill the messenger

Dude that team is scary if they sign CJ wilson or Fielder. Very scary.

"I can't wait to see Rollins popup 3 times in a September rain game to Buehrle and clout defends Rollins because of his immaculate defense keeping the game 2-0 until the 11th inning."
--
Raul's grandpa, I know you're kidding, but Rollins pops up at about the average rate (i.e. 13% of all balls hit in the air). He also pops up less than Victorino, Pence, etc.

Did the Federal Reserve buy the Marlins or something?

If the Marlins sign Nnamdi Asomugha, they will definitely be the team the beat in the NL East.

Na Namdi Aso muah.

Jack, for what it's worth, from the time Utley returned in May, the Phillies offense was numero uno.

It helps to not have Valdez or Martinez in the lineup.

And obviously it wasn't all due to Utley, but as down a year as it was for him, he was still the 3rd best hitting 2nd-baseman in the NL.

I think if they got Buehrle, they're probably out on Wilson.

I don't think the Marlins are going to blow it up in a year. They signed some big names because they anticipate having more fans coming and increased revenue. This is using some of the upcoming (hopefully) money to prime the pump for business. They are going to sell a ton of Reyes Marlins jerseys. It was a smart move to bring a Dominican Republic born player into that town and make him the franchise guy. If they can pair him with Ramirez- also a DR guy- they have a good group of guys. Even if they can't get Ramirez to stay it is probably better to switch to Reyes because I think they are down with Ramirez act.

Buehrle is the perfect guy for that rotation, and even though it's a ton of money for him, he will help a lot.

Jimmy hasn't tweeted in 4 hours. He has either been re-signing this afternoon or he broke his thumbs.

schmenk: Would you like to get in on this prediction as well, then?

Last year I predicted they would finish outside the top 5 in offense. Clout predicted inside the top 5. They finished 7th. At the time of the predictions, it was known Utley would be hurt for some of the year.

Even with Utley this year and Pence upgrade, I think the Phillies will finish outside the top 5 again, if they don't upgrade anywhere beyond just bringing back Rollins. What do you think?

Jimmy won't sign until the 6 o'clock news.

It will be hilarious when they're averaging 18K in 2013. Dont get me wrong, I think their attendance will be up significantly this year just due to the novelty of a new stadium but I see it dropping right back to where it was once that shine wears off.

Also, am I the only one that thinks that's a HUGE payday for Buehrle? I like Buehrle but I've never pictured him making that type of cash.

if he broke his thumbs they better cut a year off the deal, lol. I just checked too. He is never this quiet on twitter...

If the Marlins were smart, they'd roll a dumptruck up to Cespedes house in the DR...a big name Cuban star would play well in Miami.

Many dont realize it but 1-2 Cubans live in the Miami area.

NEPP: I was surprised, but teams tend to overpay for experience and consistency.

Buehrle is exactly the kind of pitcher who a guy like Clout loves and who I'm skeptical of. Gets by without striking guys out, without a fantastic GB rate, and giving up an average amount of HRs. By all measures, he should be just an average pitcher, not a guy with a career 120 ERA+.

To his credit, he's gotten by and done so very well, so he's doing something right. I just don't necessarily trust guys like that to be able to keep it up. With his stuff, he could pretty easily turn into a pumpkin quickly, in which case you're paying $14.5 million a year for Barry Zito (which, to be fair, is less than Barry Zito is being paid).

lol NEPP I think its closer to 7.....

Cespedes in that lineup is nice.

Reyes
Lomo
Hanley
Stanton
Cespedes
Sanchez
Infante
Buck

That lineup would out-produce the phils top 8.

Jack,
The 2012 Phillies offense will have Hunter Pence for a full season instead of Francisco/Dom Brown and Utley is supposed to be healthy and off of his folding chair to start the season. How does this compute into your prescience about the team's offensive performance in 2012?

I like Buehrle...he's about as consistent a pitcher as you can get with 11 straight 200 IP seasons. He'll also flash a dominant performance every so often where he completely baffles teams (hence the 2 No Hitters) but it just surprises me that he got $15 million AAV. But then I just looked it up and realized he just made $56 million over his last 4 years so they just kept with that level of money.

He's no HoFer but he's a very solid 2/3 starter.

JJG: I know all of that, and have considered it.

Buddy: This is the age old question: What is the proper balance of pitching, defense, offense and speed?

Some lean toward pitching and defense being more important than offense. I suspect Rube does. It is hard to measure. You can measure how many more baserunners a fielder will allow, but you can't measure the impact of those extra baserunners on a pitcher's performance. In other words, runners allowed by poor defense are magnified by the impact of those extra runners on the pitcher, who will allow additional runners unrelated to the poor defense because of the extra pitches he has to throw, psychological letdown, tiredness etc.

Furthermore, since the crackdown on steroids, baseball has shifted from an offense-oriented game to a pitching and defense oriented game. Will a team be more successful riding the trend or going against it?

Would love to see them overpay for Cespedes instead of Fielder. There's a good chance Cespedes is a bust.

There are Cubans in Miami?

Jack: You always are careful to omit context when you grandly announce the Phils finished 7th in runs scored.

They WERE in the top 5 until they rested their everyday players in the final days of the season and stopped scoring runs. In the end, they did indeed finished 7th. Missing the top 5 by a grand total of 8 runs over 162 games.

Even with that, they had the best offense in the NL in the second half of the season.

Clout: Well, the Cardinals and Rangers two of the top five offenses in baseball last year, so that worked out pretty well for them.

No matter how you do it, you need to score more runs than you allow.

I do agree that when you've committed to pitching, you need to supplement it with defense. That said, the Phillies have very high K-rate pitchers in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, which tends to lessen that concern at least somewhat. You really need good defense for pitchers that put the ball in play a lot.

Jack. That's reassuring. We can only pray that the Phils offense does not again finish two spots below top 5 in the league with league's best record along with one of the franchise's highest win totals.

Clout: Did we make predictions about where they would rank in just the second half?

I remember making predictions about where they would end the year in total runs in the NL. They finished 7th. Stop trying to move the goalposts.

There's really no need to attack me for simply making a prediction. I'm predicting that, if we don't add anyone else offensively, we will finish outside the top 5 again in runs.

I'll either be right or I will be wrong. We will know next October. I'm not sure what there is to fight about now.

If Hanley stays around, it should be interesting to see how he and Reyes co-exist.

Marlins/Phils should be some good games to watch, and I respect that they are trying to rebuild. But I'm glad I don't have any money invested in them. Hopefully they have a business plan that will work for them and that I just can't visualize from here.

Jack, if the question is simply whether they'll be in the top 5, then as they currently stand (assuming Rollins re-signs) I am firmly in the Top 5 camp.

Just about six years earlier, Asbun and Law lined up against one another in a contest between De La Salle-Jesuit played in Concord, California. Law's Marauders triumphed 28-19, en route to the 2006 high school title, with both backrowers contributing a try and Gainline.us specially observing that Law was 'hard to tackle'.

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