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Friday, December 02, 2011

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Hopefully the Phils know that the compromising pics that have of Lozano chowing down on an escort have already been made public. They'll have to try a different route.

In all seriousness, I really don't see how Rollins doesn't end up back with the Phils. Maybe the Brew crew jumps for him but it sounds like they are more concerned with trying to bring back Fielder. I don't by the Cardinals rumor from a few days ago for a second. I really don't see him matching up anywhere else.

At first, when I saw the headline I figured he was meeting with the Rangers and it shocked me when they already have Andrus and Young.

If Rollins doesnt sign that week, we'll have Reyes. That's how Rube rolls.

Rube+tons of booze+hookers=6year/80 mil contract

Sophist,
You expressed concerns about too much and too long for Rollins. Given the targets set for Reyes thus far, would 3/40 million, minimal fourth year buyout remove too much heartburn for deal with you?

Speaking of SS, last week there was a bit of talk about Nakajima. Patrick from NPB tracker was (is?) taking questions last night. Nakajima came up and I threw in a question I had about the logistics of a Mathieson style signing. It's a decent read at times and maybe he'll still answer your questions.

http://www.npbtracker.com/2011/12/ask-away-all-questions-answered/#content

J rolls old contract was so favorable...6 years 46.5 Million. Damn 26.6 WAR in that time. he played to like a value of 112 Million. Still wouldn't go anymore that 3/33.5 with a club option for year 4 (10 mil) with a 1.5 million buy out.

Take it or leave it Jimmy, don't know who else would be in on you at this point....

noname: thats the problem, he's 'leaving it' so far -- that doesnt necessarily solve the Phillies problems.

where is he gonna go, lorecore?

SF won't offer him that much
ATL won't offer him that long

The Mets? HA. after all the sh%t he talked about them, it would be a 180, and they won't give him that much.

The Cardinals? Maybe, but I think they are more inclined to sign Furcal (for less years and less AAV).

The Brewers? Maybe, but I think they spend all of their money on Prince

I just don't see a market....maybe I am missing something?

However, noname, at the time the contract was signed in 2005, it was fair to both sides, IMO.

noname: i understand your point - that his asking price will likely be dropping closer to what the Phillies can offer as time moves on, but it doesnt change the fact that he's probably the best candidate for their job without having to pay double to Reyes.

I'd rather the Phillies up their 'take it or leave it' offer to sign Rollins than get a "bargian" on Alex Gonzalez.

Grandpa: You forgot the cocaine.

Lorecore....Like I said on the last thread. I'd rather not overpay too much.. Maybe they can use the money saved to sign Cespedes.

Rollins contract was, indeed, a bargain for the Phillies, but no one forced him to sign it.

He got lifetime financial security and the Phillies got him below market value for a few years of the contract. It worked out for both parties and Rollins has said as much.

Now, it seems Jimmy wants to sign his "last" contract. That is, I suspect that if he can get a 5-year deal at an acceptable salary he'll take it. If he want a huge raise to go alng with the length he'll limit the market and interest.

This ridiculous speculation, but I suspect the Phillies would go for even 6 years if the salary was low enough. Suppose Jimmy said he'd take a 6/36 deal? (Look, I know he won't but this is an academic exercise.) I'm sure the Phillies would have no problem with going 6 years if the salary was low enough, and that's the balancing act by both parties here: Jimmy has to decide which is more important to him - AAV or length and the ability to play for only one franchise in his career and retire a Phillie.

The fact that they are meeting in Dallas is a good sign: it means that both parties would like to get something done, and hopefully they're close enough to work it out.

I just hope we end up getting Jimmy Rollins back. If he leaves, it doesn't bode well for the 2012 season. But then again, we only have one year left until the End (of the world).

Amaro will draw a firm line at 5 years.

I'd give Jimmy 4/40 if the contract says he can't lead off. otherwise 3/22.

Yeah, the computer told me Ruiz should leadoff! Lets do that!

unrelated to who/what phils sign at SS, just thought i'd post JRoll's 2011 NLDS:

.450/.476/.650

Out of the leadoff hole too.. g'dammit 3-8 hitters.

And we all know that JRoll's contract clearly states that he must be placed at the top of the lineup (in fact the fine print says he must lead off every inning, but that of course would be against baseball rules). This is like the 10th time someone on this site has mentioned "a lead off hitter requirement"... tongue-in-cheek or not...

Charlie writes the lineup. Not Jimmy. Take it up with him.

Take a look at David Hale's column on Reyes and if he's worth the money. (I think he is... just adding this for the debate)...

http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/2011/12/02/fisking-the-jose-reyes-rumors


He also dives into statistics that we normally attribute to LeadOff hitters that show in 2011 that Jimmy is actually better than Reyes (although marginally): walk rate, SB%, Pitches/PA.

Overall, Reyes had a better year because of contact (better batting average, better slugging) some of that could be explained by a higher than career average BABip. But mostly because at this point he's making much better contact and likely to continue to do so... (Age? Injury factor? dk)

Regardless, the Jimmy as leadoff hitter is not a contract question. Its a Manager question.

Last 3 seasons:

OPS+
Rollins: 91
Reyes: 120

Howard did not give money. He gave $1.2MM worth of athletic clothing and footwear for high school sports teams.

I agree with noNamemoRon. There's no market at all for J-Roll. I also agree that nothing can possibly prevent Cespedes from being a huge star next year in MLB.

What could possibly go wrong?

No Cuban player has EVER disappointed after being hyped, clout.

awh: Meeting Rollins agent in Dallas is NOT a good sign. The other 29 teams will also be there.

I don't think anyone would argue the point that Reyes is clearly better than J-Roll at this point in their careers. That's why Reyes will sign a $100M contract and J-Roll will sign a $48M contract.

The question you need to ask befrore shelling out the $100M is 1. Was last season an outlier for Reyes? 2. Will he play 140+ games for you in each of the next 5 years?

My opinion? Reyes will average a below .340 OB over the next 5 years with a BA around .275, 30 SB and 12 HRs with good defense and a high risk of injury.

If the difference between that and what J-Roll would give you (which will be less) is worth $50M, then you sign Reyes.

Clout - You in on Reyes or not? And what do you think of Cespedes' prospects in mlb? I'm done giving opinions then having you hold yours until the outcome is obvious. Put a little skin in the game. Make a call here.

You already said Dejesus was a good signing. I agree. What's your take on the other two questions?

And you snuck a sort of opinion in there just as I typed my post. But I still don't know. Do you sign Reyes or not? GMs don't get to hedge. If I'm going to hire you, you have to say yea or nay.

****1. Was last season an outlier for Reyes? 2. Will he play 140+ games for you in each of the next 5 years?****

Yes and No

At least IMHO...which is why I'm very leery of giving him a huge deal.

Apparently the Phils (along with Yankees and Rangers) are the top contenders for Jorge Soler. 19yr old OF with huge power potential at 3/15mil. I'm all for it.

So you think I should give you a clear answer as to whether I would sign Reyes?

Interesting.


Andy's clout imitation

Can I just say, without any attempt at being relevant to this thread, that the worst part of the Papelbon signing is going to be hearing T-bag's unctuous, smarmy oral flatulence as he verbally jizzes all over him when he starts warming up for the first time.

McCarthy really does suck. Can't they hire someone who is at least entertaining? I vote LA

aksmith: I already made a call on Reyes. Waiting for your call on Cespedes. Then I'll give mine. You're the one that was all hot and bothered about him, I assume you have some basis for thinking he'll be a star next season.

Cespedes, as I recall, has had big numbers in the Cuban League, so he's not just some athletic lottery ticket like, say, Anthony Hewitt. However, most of the Cuban players who have come to the states have turned out far less than advertised (remember how Jose Contreras was supposed to be a superstar?). If the Japanese League is the rough equivalent of AAA ball, I would guess that the Cuban League is probably more like low A.

Personally, I'd like to see the Phillies take a shot on Cespedes because he's intriguing & they could use an influx of young talent. And, what the hell. It's not my $50M.

Great old timey Phillies name - Yo Ennis.

I have had the luxury of seeing Cuban stars play in international play and some exhibitions in DR and Venezuela (in the late 90's and 2003-05) and it reminded me of some really competitive NCAA tourneys and once in a while of regular season April ball. It is tough to gauge the pitching as I don't have the MLB pedigree but sometimes there are guys who go out there and shut down everybody throwing four different pitches and then hit a 3run double as a pinch hitter on their off days. Fielding tends to look like MLB quality and there are guys who dive for everything and rob homers even when nobody famous is scouting.
I have stressed my concerns with Cespedes for so much money but Soler being younger (he looks it too) and rumors going at about 4-6 mil a year doesn't seem as scary.

"My opinion? Reyes will average a below .340 OB over the next 5 years with a BA around .275, 30 SB and 12 HRs with good defense and a high risk of injury."


clout, I basically agree with that, though I think Reyes may be capable of slightly better - but not much.

Worth the $50MM difference? Unequivocal "no", IMHO, whic is why I wouldn't sign Reyes in leiu of Rollins.

Clout - I have never seen Cespedes play. I am not hot and bothered about him.

I have seen a lot of Reyes, as have you.

Cespedes? If he looks like he can play, and money is no object, sure why not. Offer him 40 million over eight years and see if that's enough. It seems like the Giants think lefty relief specialists are worth 5 mil per season, so a good outfield starter should be worth that much.

So, Reyes?

sing along
B eye Bay
B eye O
B eye Bippy eye
B eye Bo
Bippy eye bi Bippy
bippy eye bi Bo

I think J-Roll feels we or should i say the Phils owe him something. Since we got him somewhat at a good deal with his last contract. Still i just cant see offering a 5 year deal its too long. Im comfortable and barely at that with 3 and a 4th year Mutual option. He can always sign a 2 year contract at the end somewhere but by that time im sure he would have declined to a point where he is more of a sub. That's why he wants that long term deal upfront.

JJG - If the Phils sign Rollins for a 3 year deal with a reasonable 4th year option and Reyes signs somewhere for 5/$80-100, I wouldn't complain. I still like Rollins' glove at SS for the next few years and his BB% shows signs of improvement.

Probably better things to do on the table, but it would be hard to complain at 3/40 really.

My husband and I are in our early 30’s. We’ve been married for a year and a half. He is a mechanical engineer with a small aeronautics company and I work for our family plumbing business, running the office and warehouse. I also have a Masters in Teaching which I use for a few hours a week tutoring at a local center. We have many animals, but no kids yet; however we are planning on having them as soon as nature cooperates. I will probably not continue tutoring after we have kids. I do it more as a hobby than as an income stream.

Elite teams must dip into the free-agent market for top players from time-to-time if they want to remain elite teams.

Generally, teams are not going to find bargains in the free-agent market. Teams will pay what the market dictates they must pay. I'm talking about fair market value in the real world, not WAR value.

The Phils need a shortstop right now. Tulowitzki is not available, so the Phils must pursue the top guys who are available right now, i.e., either Rollins or Reyes.

I'd jump on Reyes if he were not injury prone, but he is. Reyes may be 28, but he does not give you the health that you expect from a 28-year-old.

I have no problem signing Rollins to a three-year deal with an option or even four years. I wouldn't like a five-year deal, but if the Phils give him one, it's not the end of the world. It's just the cost of doing business in the real world.

Amaro and all the other GMs know that a one-year deal is less risky than a two-year deal which is less risky than a three-year deal, etc. They would all prefer to sign players to short-term deals, but that is not the world they live in.

We can guess and check various sources but we really don't know who is reaaly serious and how serious they are about Jimmy at this point.

My guess, and it really is a guess, is that he will end up with four years and a fifth year option. Each of the parties will give a little.

Hope they are able to pull it together. I was thinking about what it would be like to be a fan of a perennially mediocre team and to read in the paper that your team had just signed Jimmy Rollins to be the shortstop for the next several years. I won't say we take him for granted in Philly, but I've sensed a certain attitude of "Hey if we can't sign him for three years, let him go, we can just pick up Reyes or 'some dudes' to play shortstop."

I think we could kill two birds by signing J-Roll for 3 yrs plus option for a total of 44 mill then sign Josh Willingham for 3 yrs at 25 million. He's a better fielder than Ibanez, (not by a lot) 32 yrs old and had 29 HRS 98 RBI in a very pitcher-friendly park. He actually hit better in Oakland. 260/350/523 vs. 233/315/435 on the road. I think he is probably a better option than participating in the crazy Cespedes auction.

I would not be thrilled with signing Reyes. I agree with Clout that he is unlikely to a) repeat last year's production and b) stay healthy. That said, when he's been healthy the last 5 years, he's been a very good player--one of the top 3-5 SS in the league. Still, let someone else overpay.

I hope we sign Jimmy, but for no more than 3 years. I have serious doubts about whether he will even be a league-average SS very soon. His defense and baserunning are already starting to slip, as it appears age and leg injuries are taking their toll. Frankly, I think even by the 3rd year of a 3-year deal we will be considering a different SS.

Still, he's the best option we have going into next year, and I think it's worth the risk of the 3rd year being bad to lock him in place for the next two years.

A 4 or 5-year deal, though, in this market, is insane.

Obviously, I expect Rube to sign him to a 6-year deal with a vesting option for a 7th.

I guess there are, but not sure how many people are actually expecting Reyes to match his career year.

One argument for that is he's entering his prime.

I still don't think it's "absolutely nuts", but I'd rather put the investment somewhere else.

RobbyJ, the problem with signing Willingham is that he IS 32 years old - an age when most players, except some of the true superstars in the history of the game, have shown a propensity to seriously decline - and because of his 2011 season, he probably wants waaaay more than he's going to be worth.

awh-- JRoll is 33 but no one is averse to paying him 10-12 mill a yr.. Willingham made 6 mill last yr... Do you think 8.3 mill a yr is a fair price for him in hitter-friendly CBP?

Three yr 30 that's all I do for him. With bell going to miami. That takes one team off maddson list. The sawk and blue jays are only really two teams that are gonna go and pay the money. Toronto has players to get Bailey from Oakland. If it's not Boston then I have no idea who then. I reAlly believe the phils will go for a stop gap if Rollins turns down contract. Galvis is hitting 250 and I really think they believe in him. Winter meetings gonna be good

Amaro floating the idea that he's not opposed to throwing Galvis into the fire to the media. Interesting. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20111203_Galvis_remains_an_option_at_shortstop_for_Phillies.html

Going into his meeting with Rollins, Amaro wants to float the idea of having a valid alternative.

I love this whole injury prone Reyes stuff. Sure Jimmy wasn't out as long but he did come back too early from a few injuries and of course he went through the 2011 Phillies strategy of just sitting for a week before being DL'd or it being considered. In these periods he continued his string of pop ups and not being productive at all. I think the dead offensive Phils really could have used Reyes big huge clumps of stolen bases as well.

You all may find this hard to believe but on Rollins/Reyes, I totally agree with Jack.

Right on, my brother.

tutpsu: Excellent strategy by Rube. Chances of Galvis actually starting at SS for the Phillies next year: Zero.

clout -- How do you know Galvis won't be given every chance to prove himself in '12 spring training? After the Papelbon signing and with the Cole Hamels extension looming, I just don't see any heroic deals on the table for Jimmy Rollins. And I think Jimmy's seeking 5 years -- why wouldn't he?

He88, it already feels to me that Rollins' ain't coming back to the Phils for anything less than the best deal available. Too many bitter words from Jimmy about the fans; and too many "benchings" by Chollie – despite Jimmy's MVP credentials – likely have poisoned the well.

You'll miss me, bitches.

Rauls Grandpa: Saying that Reyes is injury prone should not be read as a claim that Rollins isn't injury prone.

Both guys are.

cut: not much of a surprise, but I think the opposite of what you wrote.

It shocks me people still have ill feelings towards Jimmy, especially about what he said re: fans.

Yes, both are. Additionally one is much younger than the other (making his injury problems "scarier I'd think) and requires a bigger investment in years and dollars. ... sorta silly to compare these guys straight-up since it's not an equal investment.

From ages 22-28 Rollins played in 1100 games (157 per year). From 22-30 he played in almost 1400 games (155 a year) with just one season below 150 games.

If Reyes had that track record my interest in a 5-6 year deal for him would be much, much higher. Reyes has played in less than 300 games in the last 3 seasons.

Robby J - Rollins can ask for more money because of the position he plays.

Bed Beard -- I'm 100% for Jimmy getting his money. I just don't beleive it will be with the Phillies.

I have been looking at both of their stats for a better part of an hour and I don't think either of them should get 4 or 5 years from the Phils. I think the best of Jimmy is gone and I don't want to watch his decline first hand. Let somebody in another town watch it. I still think Reyes will be more productive for longer but the contract is too much for too long.
I think I am switching back to my August decision that the Phils should find a great defensive SS who is younger and can hit in the 8th spot for small change.

RG -- Freddy Galvis?

Haha. Amaro throwing Galvis out there as a solution at SS. As if Amaro is going to rely upon an untested rookie player who has serious questions about his offensive production at SS.

You all may find this hard to believe but on Rollins/Reyes, I totally agree with Jack.

Right on, my brother.

Posted by: clout | Saturday, December 03, 2011 at 05:56 PM


Even scarier...I also completely agree. I assume the world is enter endtimes now.

I guess the magic 8 ball says "why the f8ck not?" at this point. Unless they can trade for a SS who is established and comes with a do-able contract (really not a possibility unless Rube can fleece somebody), I suspect they have a great deal of concern about: what 6 can do whenever he comes back, if Utley will have the same knee issues again, what can be squeezed out of whoever ends up starting at 3rd and what goes on in our newly structured outfield? Many question marks, few answers. Go cheap at SS, beg for defense and pray for offense.

Does anyone actually believe Cespedes is only 26 years old?

While I have you thinking about age, what's the deal with it anyway?

Some say Reyes is "entering his prime" at the age of 28, but are quick to point out any player 30 or older is on the downslope of his career. So are we saying the "prime" window is only 2 years? That's ridiculous.

If he's not 26, it will be determined fairly quickly upon his visa application. USCIS massively cracked down on that little trick after 9/11. Just ask "Leo Nunez"...or whatever the hell his name is now. Or Alfonso Soriano who went from his Age 26 season to his Age 28 season from one year to the next.

No...by most accounts, a player's "peak" years are around Age 26 - Age 30 and then they enter a slow plateau/decline phase that can last 3-5 years starting with that Age 30 year. The decline accelerates as they enter their mid-30s.

But again, that's an AVERAGE of every player overall, not each specific case.

Weitzel should do a simple survey asking who believes Rollins will be back with the team in 2012. It seems there isn't a general consensus.

He'll be back. I'd say there's a 90% chance he's back.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=971,1013157

Wargraph of Jimmy and Alan Trammell (actually a very good comp for Jimmy albeit one where Jimmy is wanting by a decent margin both offensively and defensively. Still, both have had similar career paths.

Tramm, even with injuries, was effective through Age 35...and then he was done.

Yu Darvish will be posted after the Winter Meetings...maybe Rube will shock everyone and grab him.

The December issue of Fact Magazine just arrived and...
Darvish will NOT be posted.
Jimmy will re-sign with the Phillies.
Jose Reyes will get hurt seriously in 2013.
Prince in his prime is better than Michael Jackson in his prime.
Madson will not accept arbitration.
We have black president adn you do not.
Michael Martinez will not spend 1 day on the 2012 Philies roster.
Colbert Michael Hamels will sign a 7 year extension in 2012.

Jimmy v Tram comps are off skewed because Jimmy's WAR is distorted by Arod, Nomar, Jeter, etc. In general Jimmy played in a better SS era than Tram. That hurts his war because in fan graph land another dominant SS makes an exellent SS easier to replace whilst in the real world it does not.

NEPP - I believe your aging information is based on the universe of all ballplayers who ever played, most of whom had very brief careers.

The aging pattern for successful, modern position players (defined here as players with a minimum of 10 seasons and 5,000 PAs since 1980) is different:

Players perform at their peaks from ages 30-33.

Players perform near their peaks (within .3 WAR of peak per 500 PAs) from ages 27-29 and at age 34.

Players perform at a very high level at age 26 (.8 WAR below peak per 500 PAs) and age 35 (.6 WAR below peak per 500 PAs).

Players fall just about 1 WAR below peak per 500 PAs at age 25 and ages 36 and 37.

The period from player ages 26-35 yields the best 10-year performance by the modern position player.

Yeah. What carstairs said.

Philadelphia,
Get your popcorn ready!

Derek: Do you have any empirical support for that proposition?

Jack - The source of the numbers I cite is Mitchel Lichtman, Tom Tango's associate. You can find this data in an article on aging that Lichtman did in THT a couple of years ago.

***The aging pattern for successful, modern position players (defined here as players with a minimum of 10 seasons and 5,000 PAs since 1980) is different:***

Those numbers would be skewed by the Steroid Era.

I'd rather go with the larger amount of data for making vague predictions. In the post juicing era, I would surmise that players will peak in the their late 20s.

derek: Ok, thanks. I do have the same concerns that NEPP has: that if the study was based on studying aging patterns in the 1990-2005 era, it could be skewed by steroid usage.

While I frankly could care less about steroid usage and its "moral" implications, and I think we have no idea how much performance was actually affected by the drugs, I think it would be useful to acknowledge the possibility that it might skew the data.

That said, I do believe there is a rational explanation, in terms of legitimate health and fitness developments, for believeing players sustain a later peak now than they used to. So I find that study to be interesting and am willing to be convinced by it. I'm reading it now.

I would surmise that players will peak in the their late 20s. - NEPP


Very late. I seem to remember that a lot of guys have their "career year" at 29. On this board the prevailing wisdom always seems to favor 26.

If you want to do the list based on earlier years, though, feel free. Try the decade 1890 - 1900. At that point almost no one over 30 was playing. Which is my way of saying that steroids are not the only reason players are playing longer in our era. Health care, quite simply, is understood better in 2011 than it was in even 1981.

Schmidt, Ripken, Boggs, Morgan and Carew all seem to follow the pattern suggested by carstairs, but they could be outliers because they were HOF guys.

I always think 29-30 as peak, 28 and 31 as off-peak. But you do get guys who are on the downward slide by 27.

Or as they said in Major League - some of these guys never had a prime/

One of these guys is dead.

Breaking News: Some teams are really, really, really still interested in Yoenis Cespedes.

derek: Get thread topic. However, I'm with the crowd that believes the study is skewed a bit, partly because of steroids, partly because of better nutrition and training, but largely because of money.

When I was growing up in the 1950s even some of the better ball players often retired in their early 30s. They were being paid about as much as the civilian professional class and their status as well-known athletes often led to private employment at a similar or slightly lower salary level, often in sales or some other public-oriented field.

The tremendous explosion of salaries from the 1980s on encouraged the players to stay in the game as long as possible by whatever kmeans necessary: multiple surgeries, HGH, strict attention to nutrition and training etc.

I have no doubt that the peak years for players from about 1985-2011 are later than the peak years for players prior to this era.

Mets reach out to K-rod. K-rod responds.
Among new contract demands: a special suite for use during home games where Franc can beat or choke family and friends.

Phils sign Laynce Nix per Jim Salisbury.

Wow, and he is sitting atop his prime plateau.

Laynce Nix? I pass. I guess Cespedes isn't in the cards.

Nix/Mayberry platoon in right I guess. This signing makes the Wigginton thing more confusing. Maybe Howard is really out for a while.

Cespedes was never a reality. The Phillies like as much certainty as possible. Shelling out 50 mil for the Cuban is the opposite of that.

Spelling Lance with a y is stupid.

I'm thinking that Rube is soliciting offers for Vic.

Bonehead...if it isn't David Wright, I don't want that deal. Victorino is too important to this team.

Phils sign journeyman outfielder Laynce Nix to a 2 year deal. He's 31 and can only hit righties. I like him as a part-time player, but once again I have no idea why the hell Amaro guarantees 2 years.

Phils bench:
1. Nix
2. Thome
3. Wigginton
4. Schneider
5. Valdez or Martinez

The Nix signing means Ben Francisco is likely non-tendered and hopefully Mini-Mart goes to Lehigh Valley.

Laynce Nix? Quintessential RAJ bench signing. A .288 career OBP who has signed minor league deals in each of the past 4 off-season. So what does RAJ do? Signs him to a 2-year guaranteed deal. Yuck.

Would Nix be the shortest last name for a Phils position player on history?

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