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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

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False memory never happens...its not like its a well-documented phenomenon...especially in cases of accusations this old.

Also, $5 million for Ruiz in 2013 is a ridiculous bargain.

Cespedes still interests me a lot because of Vic's pending FA but it is hard to believe the Phils will pony up more cash than the Yanks/Cubs/Fish to sign him.

Flip Vic for a young 3B/C or near-ready prospect and this team suddenly in a much better position for '12.

See, I'd say 66 2/3. So you're just wrong. And how good would Barajas' power numbers be if the Phils had KEPT him.

Back to my fifth...

"False memory never happens...its not like its a well-documented phenomenon...especially in cases of accusations this old."

False memories in numerous accusers/collaborating family members, all of whom were deemed credible enough that Conlin's own employer chose to break the story? You're really grasping at straws.

I tend to be dismissive when people on the far left rant about "rape culture" and "victim blaming" (the recent PLCB advertising controversy immediately springs to mind), but then I read nonsense like this and have to acknowledge that victims of sexual abuse have to deal with an incredibly hostile social climate in their quest for justice. It's no wonder that many of them choose not to come forward and that sexual predators are then free to prey on countless others.

No, I'm sick of listening to your stupid self-righteous crap on a BASEBALL BLOG.

Talk baseball or shut up.

I'm sick of hearing desperate excuses made for an accused child molester.

OK, baseball talk: Now that Conlin's back on the market, any chance Rube offers him a two-year deal? Let's discuss!

Excellent, excellent posts, A60 and JMB.

I was able to fend off a sexual predator my freshman year in college. In fact, he was my German language professor. Can you imagine?

I doubt that I was the only one accosted by this ingrate, who used his power to pounce on his victims.

I have tucked this away in the deepest recesses of my psyche and have been able to lead a very good and normal life. Fortunately, I was given the tools of solid self-esteem to help me recover.

Others are not so fortunate. I submit, as posters have, that the Sandusky affair and others that have come to light have emboldened victims from the past to open up about their abuse. I'm certain that the Catholic Church abuses that came to to the fore also opened the floodgates for a multitude of victims to reveal their cases.

I can easily picture the Conlin victims and those who participated in the conspiracy of silence seeing their situation in a new light. It was a different time with different values from what we tolerate today.

In my experience with Bill Conlin, I liked his columns from the old-school perspective, but had no respect for the person. I thought his overexposure on the Reporters show on ESPN revealed a sour human being. A much better writer than a speaker, for sure Not too swift on his feet. I also got nasty 2-3 word replies to any thoughtful criticism I expressed to him following certain articles.

In conclusion, too bad for him, his alleged victims and us, who enjoyed his baseball insights.

Perhaps a new thread that is baseball oriented is in order, JW?

Flipping Vic is about the worst thing the team could do. You ride out vic at the ridiculous bargain he is. Then let someone else overpay for his decline years, ala werth.

Jason, yes, PLEASE, put on a baseball related thread header. Let's debate whether Exxon Valdez should work on his pitching in the offseason; or if we should trade Hamels for a handful of suspect prospects. This Conlin creepy perverted stuff makes me queasy in the stomach. Let's talk and write about baseball, not some washed up hack newspaper writer and his secret (alleged) activities.

"collaborating family members"

Freudian slip? I'm sure you meant corroborate.

I wasn't going to jump in and continue this debate (insulting to the word "debate" since you seem to be arguing something no one else has said), but now that you've included the word's "victim blaming," you've gone so far off base I hope a banning is in order.
I'm not debating the accuracy of the statement that victim blaming does occur; what I take umbrage with is the fact that you've applied this label to various posters (including our Illustrious Potentate JW) erroneously. To say he hopes the accusations prove false is CLEARLY different than saying "they had it coming," or some other such derogatory statement. And do not debate the semantics. While not nearly as egregious, the label of apologist or victim blaming in a case such as this is damaging.
Speaking of semantics, I have a few words for you: Huldrefolk, trow, troldfolk, tusser...these are all words for troll.

/end rant

"And how good would Barajas' power numbers be if the Phils had KEPT him."

In fact, they'd be dismal, since at least half of Barajas's homers were hit against the Phillies.

Mets Huldrefolks? I like it.

Last thing:

Overall, I agree with A60 that the tone here (intentional or not) is of hope that the accusers are lying. And quite frankly it is irresponsible to say anything like that.

Wouldn't it be better if the accusers were lying? That would mean there was no molestation. Isn't that the best possible outcome?

Is it not also irresponsible to crucify someone before s/he has even responded to the allegations?

Honestly, this is my last post on the subject. The holier than thou attitude by some is a bit much.

Juan Perez signed on with the Brew Crew. I'll never forget 3 K's on 9 pitches vs. the Braves.

"the "new" news is that Oswalt is willing to take a one year deal.

GET IT DONE RUBE!"

Any details on this? At what price? Didn't see anything in the sidebars.

In other news, the Braves are threatening Disney with a trademark violation lawsuit because the female lead character in the next Pixar movie is named "Brave." True story.

Is she an underachiever?

Can't really see the Phils going after Oswalt even on a one year contract, unless he's willing to pitch for 5-6 mil. Considering his back problems and the likely payroll constraint of the luxury tax, I think Rube will leave a little salary in the bank for mid and late season acquisitions. There is a lot of low salaried mediocrity on the team right now. I see the ability to leave some money in reserve with an eye toward replacing Nix or Wiggy or Valdez if they completely stink. Or even Thome should age finally catch up to his bat.

Turner scalps Disney?

Oswald would be a perfect fit for a heavily incentivized contract. Give him a base of $5MM with IP and K incentives that take it up to $8 - 9. Have a few more relative to WHIP dependent on IP.

If, big if, Oswalt's back appears healthy, a one year deal with incentives as per Andy could be a good fit. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt, Worley just has a nicer ring to it than Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton/Kendrick.

I've gotta think after last year, sort of a washout, Oswalt might feel like there is some unfinished business in Philadelphia. Come back, give it another shot for a year, and have a good chance to contribute significantly to a WC. Then reevaluate after that. Not a bad way to try to cap a fine career.

Are you allowed to put in incentives other than Games played/Inninsg pitched?

JW- could we get the gnome rain delay picture up to exorcise Conlin's smug face at the top of the page.

Here's one: Nationals claim infielder Carlos Rivero off waivers from Phillies, per MLB Trade Rumors. They have a gaping hole to fill in AAA that Michael Martinez had left.

Here's the URL: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/nationals-claim-carlos-rivero.html

It's not quite fascinating headline news, but maybe it can offer the ethicists a little baseball break.

Rivero ended 2011 strong and had many people hoping he might back it up this year and give the franchise even the slighest upside at 3B. Would have been a nice story development, but an unlikely one.

Cant remember he climbed up on any top30 prospect lists after his 2011, but i wouldnt be surprised if he made some honorable mentions at the least.

Wondering...

Was Rivero waived to make room on the 40 for a pending/existing move?

And is the Nat's claim in preparation for a move on Gio?

Or just filler?

Ah... to make room for Young Jimmy...

Someone said earlier that no one hopes someone is a child molester. I disagree. I sincerely believe that Nancy Grace HOPES for child molesters. It's how she pockets millions a year.

Any Chase Headley rumors floating around? I haven't heard anything in awhile. He would be a nice fit for the Phils. Last I heard, San Diego "lowered their asking price," whatever that means. I believe the article/blurb/post said that they are no longer "asking for the moon." The Phils should definitely be players for Headley.

Anyone hear anything?

I'd be interest in Oswalt if the price is very, very low. He said he wants to build up his value, so a small, incentive laden deal is possible. Sooner rather than later, The Phils are going to be maxed out. They have to be inching close to the luxury tax and still have signings to make.

This is the Phillies. They have a finite budget whether you want to admit it or not. Odds are it's the luxury tax. They still need to save room for in-season moves as well. Oswalt at high dollars, even if only a one year deal, should not be a top priority.

Rbill: Agreed.

Even if the Padres aren't asking for the moon, i dont see any possible deal that wouldnt include Worley at the very least. If so - phils decided to give +$3M to KK so it shouldnt be unreasonable to use him as a 5th starter. Should make Worley pretty expendable to me if its for 3B talent.

I'd love it if the Phils got Chase Headley. We could make up a Cafe Press shirt that says, "That's Headley!"

Rex, I remember during the Duke lacross team rape allegations, Nancy Grace was practically ready to lead a lynch mob. She had them "tried and convicted" before just about anyone, with the same type of self-righteous indignation seen here.

Personally, as we are all sinners, my opinion is better expressed by the words of Jesus:

"May he who is without sin cast the first stone."

(On to baseball.)

RBill, chalk me up as someone who is not that interested in Chase Headley.

I know he has huge home/away splits, but as I posted here several days ago, his home/away BAbip has huge splits as well.

They're both over large sample sizes, but I am still very skeptical that any player can continue to post a .374 BAbip, which is what Headley has done away from Petco.

Maybe he can, but I have a very hard time believing that that i sustainable, even if it's some kind of freakish anomoly.

Scotch Man - "you'll be able to sue her!"

Kinda odd we'd pick up Rivero in the minor league rule 5 last year, get a decent year out of him, and then cut him loose.

awh: Headley's career BABIP is .339 in 2,114 PA - thats a pretty solid sample size.

His LD%/GB%/FB% are good, but nothing great - so he apparently is able to hit the ball with better control than a lot of other players.

From MLBTradeRumors:

The Phillies announced they've signed infielder Hector Luna and outfielder Luis Montanez to minor league contracts with invitations to Spring Training. Luna has seen seen Major League action with the Cardinals, Indians, Blue Jays and Marlins, getting as many as 379 plate appearances with the Redbirds in 2006. Montanez appeared in 36 games with the Cubs in 2011.

Seems worthy of a new thread...

I haven't seen it mentioned here, but in the arena where it counts, the court system, the three men who pleaded guilty to the beating death in the CBP parking lot were sentenced yesterday:


http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3-men-sentenced-in-fatal-Phillies-ballpark-attack-122011


awh: I don't think Headley is a superstar (and, conversely, I'm certainly not insinuating that you think he's garbage), but I think he is a nice fit for this team. I've said in previous posts on the subject that he is not a "game changing" kind of player. He is not going to transition a team from being a bottom-feeder to contender. He is, however, a decent 3B who happens switch hit. For team with ZERO 3B prospects and an aging and often injured 3B, he is a nice young option.

As for any trade, it is all dependent on what one would have to give up to get him.

NEPP: A new thread seems like a good idea.

Not that I think Carlos Rivero is likely to turn into a major league caliber 3rd baseman, but he did show big improvement last year, he does apparently play good defense, & he's only 23. On one level, I suppose it's a sign of improvement that, unlike past years, the 41st most valuable player in our organization is actually someone who is worth protecting. On the other hand, I can't help but notice that Bowker, Mini-Mart, and Diekman are still on the 40-man roster. All seem like more hopeless cases than Rivero.

JW, if you give me editing rights, I will post a new thread...albeit one lacky in witticisms as I cannot compete with your level of them.

lorecore, looka at Headlely home/away SPLITS.

His BAbip at home is about .300 which is fairly normal. It's .374 away from Petco. What's freakish is that the sample size is aboutt 1000 PA.

But I still question if that is sustainable. I dunno, I just don't think he'll continue to be that successful away from home, and thus he'll regress.

Maybe I'm wrong and he a HOF if he gets out of Petco, but I just don't see it happening.

This question and comment from a live chat on mlbtr:


3:31 Comment From Scott
What would the Jays have to pay for Gio? Is Drabek, Snider close?

3:31 Ben Nicholson-Smith:
Nope. The shine has worn off of those two.

"May he who is without sin cast the first stone."

Is that why Halladay is already hurling baseballs in December?

And then this opinion about Cole:

3:46 Comment From Chris
What do you see Hamels getting on the open market?


3:47 Ben Nicholson-Smith:
Great question. I was wondering about this the other day. I think he's a guy who could get six years and $144MM. Cliff Lee money for six years.

awh: he doesnt need to sustain that away .374 BABIP, thats the point I'm trying to make. If he does, his moving out of petco would be an amazing jolt to his production, but even if he normalizes to his home numbers in another ballpark - he's still going the be one of the better productive 3B in the NL, turning 28, and under team control for multiple years...i.e. exactly what phils should be targetting in a trade if they are looking to trade.

There is no way in hell the Phillies can afford Cole at $24 million a year.

NEPP, I agree.

I posted it to give those here who said Cole could be signed for a contract similar to Weaver's something to think about.

The day Cliffy signed to come back, I think Cole's fate was sealed.

The Cards just signed R.J. Swindle. Who makes it as a loogy RJ or JC?

Thanks, awh. Just getting those favorable baseball ya yas going on a wet December day thinking about Oswalt on a cheap one year deal and Headley, and now we're hearing about Hamels commanding Cliff Leesque numbers. Ugh.

Just kidding. No idea where this is going to go in the end, but the Wilson numbers seemed almost too good to be true. When you think about Hamels' youth, playoff and WS pedigree, and add in that he's going to be dueling this year with Halladay and Lee for baddest a** status on an elite team...What kind of numbers should we expect to hear, indeed?

Not Wilson, Weaver. Sorry. The numbers are making me crazy.

Bob, FWIW, the same guy, Ben Nicholson Smith, thinks Oswalt will get 1 year at about $12-14MM.

Certainly not cheap.

dhunter: "The day Cliffy signed to come back, I think Cole's fate was sealed."

Disagree. I think they value Cole at Xyr/$Y and went into this offseason knowing to conduct themselves in a manner where they are able to give that to Cole. If he wants a much larger deal than what they value him at, then as in all cases they will pass on making th deal - but I don't think its true to say that Lee is the reason the Phils are unable/unwilling to sign Hamels at what his value is to them.

And obviously, thats what I'd like to think the Phils did. Im sure im not alone in feeling that re-signing Hamels was one of the top priorities going into this offseason.

in all honesty, I'd take Cole Hamels over Cliff Lee today, let alone the next 4 season.

I dont think the Phillies can afford to go over 5 years, $18-19 million per with Cole.

And that is sounding like it wont get it done.

This thread certainly has been Will Schweitzeresque. That's about all that can be said about it. Hopefully we can move along to a new one soon. It feels yucky talking about baseball in it.

mainerob, I'm sorry to hear that, but glad that you've been able to deal with it.

Also, I can see from your handle that you have impeccable taste and style. You're a man that wants people to know who he is, and where he's from... nice work...

If the Phillies have Chase H and Chase Utz in the lineup it will be the first time two Chases are in a lineup outside of a prep school league. This would force Jimmy to wear penny loafers on the road.

Some people are so eager to burn witches that they take any action other than stacking wood or striking a match as the egregious sin of suffering said witches to live.

Accusations are no more proof than rational discussions are victim blaming. If the witch really is a witch, he'll burn and rightfully so.

Until then, new topic please.

My issue with ChaseTwo is two fold. First the aforementioned home/away splits and secondly is his name. I can't watch the guy come up to bat without hearing Harvey Korman in my head saying "it's HEDLEY, not Hedy!"

I think JW is leaving this thread up in honor of one of BL's more provocative posters who has now been banned from the site.

Utley fan, are you referring to Uncle clout? Ha ha!

Lincoln Hawkes with the requisite Blazing Saddles reference.

The question I have about the home/away babip splits for Headley is which is closer to real. You automatically assume that the home split, from Petco incidently, is the real split. I think most people who understand the influence of the climate on baseballs might assume his real babip over 1000 ABs is closer to the one that's not from a cool, sea level desert.

Of course, we could also re-name Jimmy: Chase Rolley.

The space created by waiving Rivero is for the mountains or the moon. More likely the moon.

(Luis Montanez and Hector Luna)

Luna is a super-utility with some major league experience who, actually, has had periods of his life when he could hit a bit. Not lately, but that's why he's available.

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/dish/201112/mets-embarrassing-ownership-offer

If you buy an ownership stake in the Mets for $20 million they'll give you one whole free parking space at the stadium AND a discount on team merchandise.

How the hell isn't merchandise free for owners? I think $20 million should get me as many David Wright jerseys as I want.

Andy: I agree, I think his 1000 PA classified as "road" are more indicative of his true performance because they have been proven in all possible stadiums hes played in.

But again - my main point remains that even if you take the lowside of his projections, hes still a productive 3B that turns 28 and is under team control for the next few years. That alone makes him a very attractive acquisition without having to even bring in his tendency to reach base on batted balls moreso than normal.

Really don't understand why the Nats are seriously considering overpaying & giving up 4 prospects including 2/3 of their best prospects besides Harper to get Gonzalez.

Hopefully Rizzo makes another really stupid move (signing Werth last year was great) and really depletes what is a pretty loaded farm system right now for a good/not great pitcher.

I really dont think Gio is that good. He's not an Ace and they seem to be paying Ace prices for a decent 2/3 pitcher.

He's a 4.32 ERA pitcher on the road for his career. Even if you account for shifting to the NL, that's still a high 3s guy...not exactly elite. Factor in his control issues and they're taking a massive risk.

Wouldn't it be smarter to try and nab Oswalt on a 1 year deal to act as a mentor for Strasburg and Zimmerman and then wait for next off-season where you have this:

Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Guthrie, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez and Anibal Sanchez are among the 2013 free agents

They could make a big run at Hamels or Greinke or even go for a guy like Cain if they dont want to pay quite as much.

But then I'm not a GM.

Take a look at the pitchers with as many walks as Gio had last year(92) in a season the last 5 years and then think about where their career is now:

Gio Gonzalez
Jonathan Sanchez
Doug Davis
CJ Wilson
AJ Burnett
Oliver Perez
Dice K
Carlos Zambrano
Barry Zito
Edinson Volquez
Ubaldo Jiminez
Daniel Cabrera
Scott Kazmir

Haha, I'm not kidding man, check b-ref yourself. I literally couldn't make up a more perfect "Overrated/Bust" list if I tried.

CJ Wilson is the ONLY player that has followed up his performance, and we'll see what his year in LAA does before we crown him some anomaly.

NEPP - Exactly. He's a 2/3 at best. Yeah he cost controlled but the much smarter play for Rizzo is try to sign a veteran stopgap like Oswalt/Kuroda/Jackson to a 1-yr deal with a moderate base & incentive upside with an option.

Nats have some really interesting young and talented starters in Cole, Peacock, and Milone.

Rotation already has Strasburg, Lannan, J. Zimmerman, and Wang. Why not sign an innings-eater veteran to a really low-cost deal or just let one of the young arms (Peacock/Milone) battle it out for the 5th spot in camp?

I know Gonzalez is a nice building block and controlled through '15 it just seems self-defeating to give up at least 2 good arms to get him & another 2 good/very good prospects too. If it was a Kershaw-type starter, then yeah.

Then go after one of the likely frontline starters available next year including Greinke, Cain, or Hamels.

NEPP - Thinking on the same page. Gmail chatting with my friend who is a Nats' season ticket holder and he really hates the Gonzalez trade rumors.

Said if the Nats really wanted to be a dark-horse contender next year they would make a push for a solid veteran inning eater (his preference is Kuroda), make a run for a solid veteran LF bat (Beltran on a 2-yr deal and moves Morse to 1B full-time), and add a defensive-oriented/speed guy in CF (wanted E. Chavez because he dreads the thought of Werth in CF at Nats Park).

Only issue for them then is the LaRoche contract which was a stop-gap signing and a poor one at that. He's due $8M this year and is untradeable unless they eat a fair amount of his deal.

I think we're jumping a weight class or jumping the gun if we think that Hamels will get a Cliff-Lee contract or one with an AAV of $20 million+.

Look at Felix' deal (5 yrs/$78 million), Verlander's deal (5 yrs/$79.5 million), Jered Weaver's deal (5 yrs/$85 million), and CJ Wilson's deal (5 yrs/$77.5 million) to get a handle on Hamels' next contract. I would anticipate Hamels' getting a five-year deal with an AAV of $16-18 million. Eminently doable.

It's Hamels' contract the next time that will break the bank.

Nats can't afford Kuroda/Beltran both. Not with Kuroda wanting $12M/year and Beltran probably going to get at least that and likely a little move a 2/3 yr deal.

Still, they have wanted to be a legit darkhorse contender in the NL East next year, those moves would have made them one and their payroll would still at around $80M or so.

derek - Only reasons Hamels should sign a deal this offseason at less than $20M AAV is if he wants certainty & for some reason has health concerns.

He'll get that next year in FA.

The last time I looked at the Phils' 2012 payroll projections (after the Rollins' signing) the Phils have enough money to sign Oswalt if they want him.

Since no team has jumped at Oswalt already, there may be widespread concern about his back. If so and if Oswalt and his agent are being realistic, they should be willing to sign an incentive-laden deal with a reasonable base salary.

MG - Just to be clear, I am assuming the Phils re-sign Hamels to a long-term deal before he hits free agency.

I know the old adage 'you can't have enough starting pitching' holds but I have no desire to see Oswalt back under any circumstances.

He would suck up any remaining payroll flexibility the Phils do have to make moves in season especially at the trading deadline and I doubt he will be healthy enough to be productive & start 25-30 G.

Hell, I would rather see the Phils pour that money back into resigning Madson to a 1-yr deal if they are going to go that route because Oswalt is still going to command at least a base of $6M and likely a bit more.

Speaking of Madson:

There has been zero rumor activity on him. The only reason I can think that is the case is because Boras is still holding out ridiculous demands for a multi-year deal at least $8-$10M AAV for Madson.

Supposedly 4 teams after Cordero including the Red Sox/Angels/Reds but he is only rumored to be seeking a 2 yr/$10-$11M deal.

Madson will not come back to the Phillies on a one year deal. He would rather take less money on a one year deal to close somewhere, anywhere, in order to establish himself as a top free agent next offseason.

The signing of Donte is a low risk/high reward but what if it doesn't work, who is our other lefty in the BP?

also, so clout really was Conlin? I though that was just wives tale.

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