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Tuesday, November 01, 2011

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Vic is the only one of the trio who has any chance of winning -- and he's the only one of the trio who's deserving.

Why shouldn't Polanco win? Who are the deserving third basemen?

ESPN guy: (on phone) You want us to pay to televise what? Golden Glove? Boxing? Fielding award? Are you f8kking kidding me? Go f8kk yourself." (laughing and slamming down phone)

Six months and five NBA labor talk breakdowns later.

ESPN guy: (on phone wiping years away) I am sorry, sir. That's all we can offer. Polanco could be there? Okay, Mickey Mouse will make three appearances. Signed LeBron jerseys? Okay. Yeah. About that "beat with a stick" request..uh, you can't have Berman. You can have Wilbon, Stewart Scott, Kenny Mayne, Kirk Herbstreit but sorry Digger Phelps, his contract has a clause against it. "

Wiping tears

jw: I was assuming Zimmerman to be a lock, but I see he's not on the list. Maybe that's because he only played around 100 games.

Without Zim, I guess Polanco has a good shot -- although I was pretty impressed with Descalso's defense also.

Descalso isn't a starter. I don't know how he gets on this list based on 61 starts at third.

That said, Polanco was significantly better in 2010 than he was in 2011.

Quite honestly, I don't feel competent to pick a Gold Glove winner because it's not like I watch the other 15 National League 3rd basemen on a day-in, day-out basis. I do know that Polanco has tremendous defensive reflexes, but limited range and a fairly average arm. If he was the best fielding 3rd baseman in the league this year, it says more about the other 15 guys than it says about him.

Rollins had a rough year in the field. Apparently, so did the rest of the NL if Ronny Cedeno is considered gold glove caliber. Cedeno has defensive skill but he is a guy who plays with his head firmly inserted up his ass. Only infielder I can recall breaking the wrong way on a ground ball, and I've seen him do it twice. Pirates thought so much of him that they declined a $3M option so they can continue to run minor leaguer suspects out at SS hoping one of them suddenly blossoms into a major league player.

I feel the Gold Glove award became meaningless once Rafael Palmeiro won the award one year while playing only 28 games at 1B while DH-ing the rest of the time.

Which proves most everyone who votes on the Gold Glove, does NOT watch the actual players play the game of baseball or takes note as to whether they actually play defense well, or at all.

Oh and limp-armed David Wright has won it twice. Enough said.

How the hell is Alex Gonzalez in the running for a Gold Glove? Do they pick some of these names out of a hat?

Alex Gonzalez has been an above average defensive SS his entire career. Not sure he's Gold Glove.

Zimmerman doesn't get the award because he missed too much time. Same with Descalso.

Polly's UZR at 3B past 2 seasons has been 10 and 14. His career UZR150 at the position is 12.5, which is better than his number at 2B.

Am I missing something with Sandoval? UZR loves him too. Maybe he catches more balls in his stomach than I realize.

I was hoping Cliff Lee would be nominated for a GG.

I don't watch other teams regularly, but I think our guys are pretty good at defense. I don't have the impression that Ruiz is better than McCann or Molina, however.

DH Phils: That's a baffling one too, but single season UZR doesn't mean much.

Three seasons give you a better picture:
-5.4, 1.5 and 17.4.

In other words, his UZR has been all over the map. I'd rate him a league average thirdbaseman.

Re: Ruiz. FWIW, throwing out 23 runners in 99 attempts is poor.

The best catchers throw out about 33-35%. Yadier Molina is the best catcher in the NL and he threw out just 29% last season (although he threw out 53% in 2010 and his career average is an amazing 44%. Joe Mauer is 35%.)

The CS stat can be misleading because it is so dependent on pitchers holding runners on, something that the Phillies, for example, are very poor at.

Ronny Cedeno's career UZR150 at SS is -1.6. A GG would be a total joke.

Rollins' career is 5.1 and Tulo's is 5.8.

Even beyond the UZR, Tulo is clearly most deserving.

I can't watch until they have the Field f/x installed at all of the ball parks and hopefully come up with some ways to remove the arbitrary factors that go into the fielding awards.

If I did have a vote, I would vote for Vic and Polanco. Not Chooch. Molina is the best defensive catcher in the NL and did a nice job of showing that in the NLDS this year.

BAP - I feel the same way about Polanco. It says more about the absolute dearth of defensive talent (and talent in general at 3B this year) than it does about his abilities.

He has great hands & makes accurate throws but I didn't he was great this year defensively either.

clout: 3-year UZR samples are better for determining a player's average talent, but I don't like them to determine a single-season Gold Glove.

At the 2009 All-Star Break, 3-year averages would have been better than first half totals for predicting Raul Ibanez's performance going forward, but he still should have been rewarded for his first half with an all-star appearance.

The measurement error in UZR puts error bars around a 1-year sample, but a 3-year average wipes out any year-to-year real improvement or real performance peaks that may be fluky but should still be rewarded.

So the Braves only have about $5M to play with in FA. Yeah there farm system is loaded with heaps of young talent (especially pitching) but sounds like they will be stuck around that ~90 win max ceiling.

If Rizzo can get a legit frontline starting pitcher and another OF bat, Nats will likely be darkhorse favorites next year in the East.

Fish could be too although it still looks like they will nickel-and-dime it this offseason for the most part. The only difference is that they won't dump expensive players wholesale while adding a few pieces here and there.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/offseason-outlook-atlanta-braves.html

MLBTR released arbitration figure projections from Matt Swartz's model for all 196 arbitration-eligible players:

Phillies:

Cole Hamels - $14MM
Hunter Pence - $11.1MM
Kyle Kendrick - $3.2MM
Ben Francisco - $1.5MM
Wilson Valdez - $900K

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html#more

DH Phils: That's a good point. But since we both agree that one-year UZR is worthless and 3-year UZR can hide abrupt improvement, what role would you suggest that UZR play in awarding GGs?

DH Phils - Figure they try to sign Hamels long-term this offseaon and go slightly less than that $14M, resign Pence/KK/Valdez to around similar figures, and my bet is they let Francisco get non-tendered.

Bissinger tweet from earlier today:

buzzbissinger
Anybody who hates Tony La Russa is a fuc-ing moron. And anybody who thinks Billy Beane changed baseball is a bigger fuc-ing moron.

The most asinine award in baseball. The award should go to the player with the fewest errors based on number of chances at each position. No voting, just pure stats. Kind of like the Vezina in the NHL. Give it to the goalie with the lowest GPA based on number of shots faced.

Yet another popularity/hype contest. As if MVP wasn't an undefined enough award, it allows sportswriters to slobber over other athletes without any concrete criteria (though, it at least has a defensive premise, which is more focus than the MVP criteria).

For that reason, I'd be shocked if Molina didn't win for catchers. The media has been gushing over his caught-stealing rate all season (and rightfully so, he's one of the few who single-handedly shuts down opposing running games). Even if he led the league in passed balls, they'll give him the award for that alone.

Rule 5 alert!

We know Rube loves Rule 5 picks, even if they suck.

Here's my offering: Anthony Seratelli, KC Royals.

Switch-hitter, like Mini-Mart, but, unlike Mini-Mart, he can actually hit: .273/.366/.405 career slash line.

He's a bad fielder and old, like Rizzotti, but, unlike Rizzotti, he can actually play lots of positions: Every INF spot and OF corners. He lacks Rizzotti's power, but, unlike Rizzotti, he's got good speed: 35 SB, 5 CS last season.

He's an absolute OB pig posting OB of .392 this year in AA and .361 last year.

Jersey boy who played college ball at Seton Hall, went undrafted and then was picked up from the independent leagues by KC (which means DaveThom loves him!)

He's not on the 40-man, but KC put him in the AFL and so far, in 11 games, his slash line is .395/.510/.500.

C'mon, someone get Rube on the phone!


On deck for Chinese Taipei, Long Duck Dong!

I love how Alberto is blowing Tony's hornpipe. Perhaps he should retire with him.

When did they start doing this Taiwan All-Star Series? Or, have they always done it and never really broadcasted it? Or, more likely, have they been broadcasting it and only now am I this starved for baseball to tune into it?

Chad Durbin is a Free Agent, huh?

What is the required amount of games these guys have to put it during a year to be nominated? Some of these guys missed half the season.

According to Cot's, Polly doesn't have a GG bonus in his contract. I guess he just does it for the free gloves.

Polanco won, Vic did not.

Matt Kemp is this year's Derek Jeter: a decidedly below average defensive player who nonetheless wins a Gold Glove due to his terrific bat. And how on earth does Michael Bourn not win a Gold Glove?

Gold Glove awards have lost much of their luster.

I'll say it again. Palmeiro won a Gold Glove for 1B while playing 130 games as a DH. Look it up.

Cliff Lee is not even nominated for a Gold Glove? He is a terrific fielding pitcher.

Mini Mart should of won what a travesty. UZR= Useless Zone Rating...

Polanco did a helluva job considering he was injured (bad back, sports hernia) for much of the season. Kudos to him.

The award should go to the player with the fewest errors based on number of chances at each position.

You do realize the arbitrariness of how errors are "awarded", don't you?

There just isn't any great fielding metric for 1 year.

Bert-
I don't think they should give anybody awards for having the worst grades in school...

I believe you meant GAA, Goals Against Average.

Disappointed that Ruiz didn't get the award.

Matt Kemp over Bourn or Victorino?!?


As if the GG weren't a big enough joke already.

I just saw that Dave Hollins was promoted to MLB Scout. Why do the Phillies let people like Hollins linger around the organization forever I can't honestly judge him as a scout but it smells like the old Phillies policy of keeping a guy for life if despite never doing naything of note.
They were awful about this until Gillick came in when Bowa, Vuck, Greene and assorted hangers on were employed for ever as the team lost and lost and lost. I hope they aren't getting back to that pattern.

In other news, Dykstra vs Canseco is really going to happen.

"I can't honestly judge him as a scout but it smells like the old Phillies policy of keeping a guy for life if despite never doing naything of note."


What's important in the above is everything before the word "but".

"He's a bad fielder and old, like Rizzotti, but, unlike Rizzotti, he can actually play lots of positions."

That's like saying the restaurant's food is lousy, but they serve big portions.

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