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Monday, November 28, 2011

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Not worried.
I respect everyone's intelligence too much to explain why.
Next.

Smart move on their part depending on the years. Anything more than 6-7 years would be a mistake.

He's fat but he can damn well crush the ball and they need a big bat.

I'm hoping Middleton has Cespedes on his fantasy team.

If I were a billionaire and my favorite team were the Phillies, I'd easily write Rube a $100 million one time check to go sign whoever he wants for this core group. If I were a billionaire.

Unfortunately, I'm not a billionaire.

The Astros should open up the new regime with the Fielder signing and he can DH when they flip to the AL. Or they can take 6 off our hands.

I'm sure Fielder would just LOVE being part of a mid market rebuilding process on the worst team in baseball.

Maybe JM has Fielder penciled in at LF on his fantasy team.

fielder i can figure...but what about the stud they already have in morse

Bring back Madson and Rollins.

Jimmie is the best option at SS yearsrguaranteeded salary and and an incentive laden option for fifthth- that way he can "win" on his 5 year and we pay only if he is still productive.

Madsaiddaid on many interviews that the 8th inning role is as important as the closer.Ante up and see if he means it.

No neerebuttalsbutals- I know this is wishful thinking .

Morse plays LF for them...too easy.

Also, he's entering his Age 30 season with just 1.5 years of actual starting experience. He's a complimentary piece, not a building block.

I can't say I am looking forward to seeing our oldsters again. It seems management has not seen the handwriting on the wall. Since winning the world series this team has performedincreasingly poorly2009 lost the series, 2010 missed the NLCS, 2011 missed the NLDS. Based on simple trend analysis this team as currently projected will just miss making the post season.

I'm sure Fielder would just LOVE being part of a mid market rebuilding process on the worst team in baseball.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, November 28, 2011 at 09:59 PM

As long as the contract had enough 000's, I get the feeling Fielder wouldn't give a crap about any of that.

"I can't say I am looking forward to seeing our oldsters again. It seems management has not seen the handwriting on the wall. Since winning the world series this team has performedincreasingly poorly2009 lost the series, 2010 missed the NLCS, 2011 missed the NLDS. Based on simple trend analysis this team as currently projected will just miss making the post season. "

Since 2006, this bunch of poorly performing oldsters has won 85, 89, 92, 93, 97, and 102 games.

I could try to figure out which sample size is more predictive: 162 or 5. Instead, I'll trust the well-established science of "simple trend analysis" and predict 106 wins and a wild card berth. Next year? 109 wins and missing the playoffs.

So a Japanese SS was just posted. According to MLBTR, he was the second best hitter in Japan. Checking BR, his OBP is way better than Rollins and he hit .297 last year. Have no idea about his defense. I know Japanese players don't usually translate to America too well outside of Matsui and Ichiro, but I say the Phils should give it a shot. He's bound to be cheaper than Rollins, and at 29 years old he's younger too.

ZT,
He has been discussed and dismissed. The posting cost probably puts him over Jimmy's price too

The Nationals are gonna be in the mix for the NL East either this year or next - book it! You don't have that many good draft picks and draft the best pitching and hitting prospect and not start to see results...If they add Fielder they'll be pretty formidable.

Apparently we're trying to get D'Arnaud back - Howard could be their DH and hit behind Batista...That could be f'in scary

That would clear a roster space for Albert or Prince. Of course the Phillies would need to swallow some salary in the transaction.

Natinals also interested in Mark Buehrle. Nats GM Rizzo and other FO-types reportedly met with Buehrle last week. It is the same approach they used to land Werth last year. Should that happen, the SP would be Strasburg/Buehrle/JZimmerman/Lannan/Wang

B.J. Upton is being talked about in DC, as in Let's throw stuff against the wall and see if it stinks .. er.. sticks.

Most likely it won't happen, but it does raise the specter of an outfield of Harper-Upton-Werth by the ASB. Would be interesting in the clubhouse, I'd say....

Most times, the teams that are "in on" a particular player is PRand/or agent bullsh##t anyway. Until trades or signings happen, it's all fodder for us to discuss/dispute. Miami has NO MONEY right now. Anybody have season ticket figures for 2012. Where's the stream that pays Reyes,Buehrle,Pujols?(or Fielder)Taking a tour of the new park means zero.Show me the money..Also, at least the Nats have a decent amt of cash to play with since a lot of their players are home-grown and under control. The nats WILL be a serious contender by 2013.

Where are you hearing about Howard for Travis? Sounds like BS

We dont have a single prospect that is even close to the value of d'Arnaud. It would have to be a huge quanity over quality trade...or something like Victorino with us also signing Cespedes.

Not sure where the Howard part came in, and I'd say that's BS anyway, but the d'Arnaud part was reported by a Toronto writer. Makes some sense, but as NEPP said, he'll be pricey. The Jays were looking at pitching weren't they? If there's a slim chance of Hamels being dealt, could he be going up there?

Get Rube A Beer Right on. BLers aren't familiar with last to 1st.Nats push over days are done.

d'Arnaud would be a centerpiece in a deal for Hamels...but it would take more than just d'Arnaud. They'd have to toss in some other pieces.

DH - don't forget that 2014 year when they win 112 games but finish in last place.

I'd rather have Nakajima than Cespedes. (Besides, the Cuban that the Phils are really more interested in is Soler.)

The posting fee, IIRC, would not be subject to the luxury tax. From reports I've seen, Nakajima's an "athletic" fielder, prone to occasional brilliance and occasional sloppiness, but is also a decent hitter. Nakajima has also played a little 3B.

Remember that his power numbers (16 HRs last year) would decline in MLB; but Jimmy's power numbers seem to be declining, too.

They're gonna sign Rollins, though, so the point is moot.

The chances of a Hamels for D'Arnaud deal approach zero as conversation approaches reality.

The chances of the Jays willingly giving up d'Arnaud for anything less than a king's ransom are non-existent. It doesnt matter that they have a good catcher at the MLB level...they have zero reason to trade a guy who will likely be the #2 prospect in baseball in 2012 (behind Harper).

Why do the Phillies need a catcher right now anyway? Not really a dire need there.

I like Chooch, but upgrading the C spot isn't crazy. d'Arnaud wouldn't be up this year, anyway.

***Why do the Phillies need a catcher right now anyway? Not really a dire need there.***

Well, Ruiz is going into his Age 33 season and he's signed through 2013 so it would fit right in with about when d'Arnaud would be MLB ready for a nice transition...so there's that.

It probably won't happen, but I like Amaro's thinking with trying to bring him back.

RAJ hasn't ruined my day yet!

I think the D'Arnaud talk is just a smokescreen for the Prince of Darkness to accomplish some unexpected major blockbuster move. He's actually (and this is conjecture) sending Howard to Japan for Nakajima, Aoki AND Darvish.

KC signs Broxton. I'm going to miss facing him in the playoffs every year.

D'Arnaud? Every time you think you know the answers with what Rube is going to do, he change the questions.

Howard is un-tradable. who wants a 32 yo 1b whose numbers have been in decline (in the easier league) and is just starting a 5 year deal at $25m per? Oh yeah, and he blew out his achillies tendon. I like the guy, I really do; but no one is trading something of particular value for that. Especially an AL East team that already has Adam Lind (who isn't as good, admittedly) for $20m a year less.

I don't want the Phillies to trade Cole, but if they did Brett Lawrie and Travis D'Arnaud wouldn't be a terrible return. Certainly much better than the Cliff Lee Trade to Seattle.

Would you trade Howard for Adam Dunn straight up?

No

I would trade Howard for A. Soriano.

I would trade Howard to anyone who gave us his entire salary in return even if we got zero players back. Then Rube could turn around and sign Pujols.

I'm not saying that Howard has no value on the baseball field. I'm just saying his value on the baseball field is outstripped at the moment by his cost. If Howard had entered the Free Agent market, I wonder what he would have gotten, considering his injury. A one year $10-$15m make-good deal like Carlos Pena signed last year and Adrian Beltre the year before? I can't think of a lot of big time hitters who have entered the free agent market injured as badly as Howard.

Howard does have no trade value because of his contract & health status. If he hadn't blown out his Achilles, you could possibly move him but it be cost-prohibitive eating tens of millions in the process. No team, not even the Yanks would do that.

No team in their right mind though would possibly trade for Howard now regardless of what they got in return until they see him take the field again & see what he does over a few months.

Utley fails into the same category because I would highly doubt he would pass a physical for another team right now.

Yes, Howard's contract is scary.

So is Dunn's; three more years and $44 million, coming off a .159/.292/.277/.569 season.

Is Dunn done?

NEPP: problem with giving Howard away (and I'm not advocating it) is, not too many teams can afford $125m contracts to anyone, much less to declining, injured 1b's. Recent bad contracts to be absorbed like that (Vernon Wells & Alex Rios) had less time left and lower AAV's on them than Howard does. And, I don't know that the Angels or White Sox would call those deals rip-roaring successes.

***Is Dunn done?***

I wouldn't bet on it. I suspect he bounces back to some semblance of a hitter in 2012.

JBird: Pena & Beltre were much different cases than Howard. Pena was coming off a ridiculously bad season in which he hit .196. And Beltre, coming off the worst season of his career, overplayed his hand the way many Scott Boras clients do -- ending up signing a late 1-year deal when no one would give him anything close to the 5-year deal he wanted.

If Howard were a FA, he would definitely sign a multi-year deal somewhere, but it wouldn't be anywhere close to 5 years, $125M.

Yeah, but Howard could also miss the 1st half of the season.

BAP: You're probably right. He'd probably be attractive to a couple teams that didn't want to shell out for Pujols or Fielder. Could see St. Louis moving on him for 4-$72m after Pujols signed for 7-$175m with the Phillies.

"***Is Dunn done?***

I wouldn't bet on it. I suspect he bounces back to some semblance of a hitter in 2012."

Ok so Howard is done and on an irreversable decline but Dunn can hit .159 and people think he'll be back? Crazy talk, people.

Also, Nakajima will be less of an offensive force than Tad Iguchi was. He plays a decent defensive SS on turf but his arm is not on the level of Jimmy's nor is he as sure handed.

***Ok so Howard is done and on an irreversable decline but Dunn can hit .159 and people think he'll be back? Crazy talk, people***

I've never stated that Howard is done...I think he can also bounce back from the Achilles tear.

NEPP: it's common practice on this site to cobble together unrelated posts from different posters and then declare it beerleaguer consensus.

gobaystars - No Howard isn't 'done' but what team in their right mind (contract aside) trade for a player who just blew out his Achilles in his mid-30s without seeing how he hits & fields for at least a few months?

Don't think the Nats will be worst to 1st but they are definitely not gonna be an easy series anymore

Well, they haven't done anything yet.

Phillies signed Pat Misch to a minor league deal. The Iron Pigs are going for it!

You won't discuss Nakajima, but you'll discuss trading Howard? Sounds like one of those things is a bit more realistic than the other.

gobaystars: It sounds like you have a bit more information on Nakajima. Why don't you think he'll transfer well to the US? And Wikipedia says that he won a Gold Glove in 2008, so his defense can't be too bad, can it?

dun-dun-dun-DUNNNNNN!!!!

Scotch - Actually, Misch has stunk everywhere above AA. But he has been a killer there; so it's the Reading Phils who are going for it.

Good to see Fransden's back..He'll add a little "speed" to the Iron Pigs.

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