Phils could prioritize 'pen when dust settles at short

Not to look beyond shortstop, but, yeah, let's look beyond shortstop.

Obviously, there's no greater pressure point than shortstop and the slow-going negotiations with Jimmy Rollins and his agent Dan Lozano. So assuming the Phils come to terms on nothing less than Rafael Furcal, and that all their other contractual escalators have been addressed, where does that leave the Phils as they look to shore up other needs? And what is the most important need beyond shortstop?

Despite a reported offer on the table for super-utilityman Michael Cuddyer, which is reportedly below his asking price (via Jim Salisbury), adding an outfield bat may not be the No. 2 focus beyond shortstop. Look around the roster and discover that Wilson Valdez isn't the only iffy placeholder bequeathed with a major role. Can Jose Contreras be counted on to shoulder 65-75 appearances, which is the typical load for a set-up man? How much do they trust Antonio Bastardo, who had an 11.05 ERA in September? And are they comfortable with Michael Stutes, David Herndon, Kyle Kendrick, Justin De Fratus, Michael Schwimer and Joe Savery shouldering the rest of the load?

Similar to the 2010 offseason, it's a bullpen that would "look better on paper with a veteran, affordable presence who still had an arm." I wrote those words two years ago and the Phillies delivered Danys Baez, a guy who made a ton of sense at the time. Here was a former closer who pitched the eighth inning in Baltimore and was supposed to settle into the late-inning mix with Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge.

Baez became another test case for free agent relief. You never know. And the Phillies don't know. For example, a guy like Chad Qualls, on paper, would look pretty attractive as a seventh or eighth inning guy. But Qualls, at 33, is a carbon copy of Baez before 2010.

After learning their lesson with Baez, J.C. Romero and other trials, "safe" may be equal, or worse, than overspending for elite talent like Jonathan Papelbon, or even Billy Wagner, who retired last season following an All-Star season with the Braves in 2010. The Phils reportedly called Wagner to gauge his interest in a comeback, but Wags declined and reaffirmed his retirement. 

When it comes to free agent relief, "safe" is a myth, and "safe" is rarely worth it. It's the reason I agree with bay_area_phan when he says that Brad Lidge is an "addiction the Phillies need to stop."

Comments

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I bet MG's firing up some posts for this bullpen thread!

[lorecore]

Big Truck will be very good this year as long Papelbon and Bastardo are not injured and force him into too many innings early on. I trust Bastardo to be the primary setup man going into 2012, with Contreras as the primary 7th inning guy who chips in later situations when needed.

The cluster of Herndon/De Fratus/Stutes/Schwimmer will be counted on to pick up any slack that contreras/bastardo might leave them - and the LOOGY situation is an unknown...as always.

Papelbon - 9th
Bastardo - 8th
Contreras - 7th
2 of the youngin's mentioned by JW in between
Kendrick - swingman

[J. Weitzel]

Big time MG post coming up.

[aksmith]

Bullpens don't matter.

Much like backup catchers, utilitymen, huge contracts to declining players and . . . really anything. None of it matters.

And anyone who thinks those things matter:

A. doesn't know anything about baseball
B. is worrying about a budget that doesn't exist
C. is not a real fan.

That is all.

[rauls grandpa]

There are many reasons why dealing with Lozano's clients is slow business. Perhaps it is because no one can hear the phone over with Miami Bass music blaring or maybe it is because the secretary spends time away from the desk picking up champagne and polishing the pole.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Don't forget your posts are starting not to matter as well, Ak...

[Dull]

My money on the big seven in the pen to open the season will be Papelbon, Bastardo, Contreras, Stutes, Savery, Diekman, and Kendrick. Contreras breaks down early again and is replaced by Herndon.

[cut_fastball]

What if Ryan Madson took the Phils' arbitration number? What if Placido Polanco (the nickname "Polly" is just too weird...) stayed healthy all year at 3rd? And Jimmy Rollins took a 3- year deal with a vesting option on the 4th? And stayed healthy all year, too? What if Mayberry is for real, and has a breakout .298/.375/.895 kind of year? With 35 HRs?

This team might lead the majors in both team pitching and fielding. And make us forget about the absence of Ryan Howard. And win 111 games with a team ERA of 2.75...

And then I woke up.

[aksmith]

Bedrosian's Beard - If I had thought my posts, or anyone's posts on a baseball blog ever "mattered" I'd be someone else.

These are for entertainment purposes only. And if they're not entertained, then you got your money's worth either way.

But I really wouldn't mind Jimmy back on a reasonable 2-3 year contract. Three year/40 mil? The way the SS market is shaping up, that would look like a lowball offer, but it's way more than a reasonable one.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

Are you not entertained?!

[aksmith]

Did you fight in Germania?

[NEPP]

Watch the Nats massively overpay Prince Fielder...that will be hilarious. I mean, if I'm building an offense via free-agency, giving long-term deals to Werth and Fielder is just brilliant.

[aksmith]

Depends on the length of the contract. Fielder is a stud hitter in his absolute prime. Is seven years a major risk? Maybe.

[NEPP]

A 7 year deal would take him through his Age 34 season.

I'd trade that for our current situation with Howard.

[The Truth Injection]

On the last thread it was mentioned that we might be lucky to see Rollins play 150+ games a season on a long term deal.

What percentage of major leaguers actually play 150+ games in a season regardless of injuries?

[Scotch Man]

After Baez, I never want to see the Phils blow millions on "veteran presence" again. I'm fine with Papelbon and locking down a solid 9th inning arm but that's it. I say ride into the season with what they have. If it gets nasty, they can pull of a trade. I mean if there's some dough to play with after other signings, alright fine but a veteran arm like Qualls is just as likely to blow up as the young and much more lively arm of De Fratus.

[NEPP]

KK could be the "veteran presence" in the bullpen. Hell, he's got 5 seasons of MLB baseball under his belt now...he's hardly a young rookie unknown.

[rauls grandpa]

I would love to see the Nats load up on Fielder and the Marlins back up the truck for Cespedes, it would be a nice foil for the ugliness in Howard's contract in a few years.

[NEPP]

I'm still kinda hoping Rube breaks the bank for Cespedes.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I would not like to see Fielder go to the Nats. We can laugh at the size of the contract and the Nats' 2015 budget issues, b/c that's what baseball is all about, but they'll still have Fielder in the lineup.

[NEPP]

Werth
Fielder
Zimmerman

is a pretty tough 3/4/5. Add in their other decent bats (Ramos, Harper in a couple years) and they look tough. They have the money to spend with the big boys from all accounts.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Morse also hit well, and Rendon could be a big bat down the road.

[NEPP]

Strasburg
Zimmerman
Wang

Is a decent Top 3 with Lannan as a solid 4/5. Sure its not close to our rotation but its solid.

[MG]

Fielder is probably the fattest vegetarian I have ever seen but he is still going to be a very good hitter for years to come.

Hope the Nats get desperate and give Wilson No. 1 starter money instead.

[NEPP]

Eating pizza all day is still vegetarian...as long as there's no meat on it.

Doesnt make it healthy. I would guess that is the type of vegetarian that Fielder is.

CJ Wilson would be a mistake for top $$...I think most people understand that.

[Jimbo Jones]

Don't forget about Wilson Ramos. Good year for a rookie catcher. Not sure how he calls a game.

[MG]

Phils really do need to make at least 1 veteran signing here and arguably 2 mainly because I would be stunned if they even get 50 IP out of Contreras next year. Also have a hunch that KK is going to spend a lot amount of time in the rotation next year with Blanton's questionable health status.

Filling with bullpen otherwise with just internal candidates will be a recipe for disaster. They were too thin last year which showed in Aug/Sept when they had real issues when a starter didn't go at least 7 IP.

Carpenter isn't a MLB-caliber pitcher and Stutes really has to improve that slider to be anything more than a backend reliever. Herndon is fine in his role as a backend reliever who is cost-controlled and can go multiple innings if needed. Savery is unknown and ditto De Fratus. Aumont looks like he will be at least a serviceable MLB reliever for years and possibly a backend guy but he is really a year away yet.

FA market for relievers is pretty underwhelming this year. Only guy I would love to see the Phils sign is Saito on a 1-year deal. Question is the price tag and his physical.

Wood would be a nice signing too but he is content to be a loser in Chicago. I don't know how he would react either to pitching in a market where the crowd could really turn on him quickly he if struggles too.

Not really that veteran starter who could be converted into a reliever that the Phils have had a lot of luck with the past couple of years (Durbin, Park, Contreras).

One guy I would be really interested in that kind of role is Harden who simply physically can't make it through a season anymore as a starter. Only made $1.5M last year. Issue is that he supposedly still wants to be a starter.

I really liked Qualls last year because he was a classic 'buy low' candidate. Really hope the Phils avoid him because he likely has a higher price tag that will require a decent amount on a 2-yr deal.

Wouldn't mind seeing Lidge back either because even though he is just a one-trick pony he is a damn good at it. Just depends on the price tag. A base of $1.5M with incentive potential to double it would be ideal but I imagine he will $2.5-$3M from someone as a base.

Ditto Mota as a Seanez-type signing if he comes in on a minor-league deal or at the veteran league minimum.

Veteran LHP reliever FA market seems like it has the same names every year including a couple of ex-Phils (Rhodes & Romero). Wouldn't mind the Phils kicking the tires on Duke but it depends on what his price will be. He will probably make over $1M and that will be out of the Phils' price range.

Grabow is durable & will come real cheap (close to the veteran minimum) but he has been hammered by RH bats the past few years. T. Miller also fits that bill too.

Otherwise, this strikes me as an area where the Phils will take a hard look at veteran relievers who get non-tendered possibly & become FA including R. Hill and JP Howell.

Really just want another veteran who comes close to the veteran minimum and can give them a little more depth & let compete with Savery in spring training for the 2nd lefty spot in the pen.

Also a few other guys who might be non-tendered like Hensley would be nice to bring on a minor-league/major-league deal too.

[MG]

There are a few relievers I hope the Phils stay ten miles away from including:

Rauch - dumbass who doesn't how to pitch & gets too emotional/amped up on the mound

MacDougal - throws hard & that is it

Capps - overrated pitcher who simply doesn't have another decent pitch besides his 4-seam fastball

Hawkins - melts down anytime he gets into a tough market

Qualls - classic reliever coming off a rebound year that some team will overpay and be disappointed

M. Gonzalez & Linebrink - washed up

Francisco is a guy I would love to see setup for Papelbon but he is almost certainly going to be out of the Phils' price range.

[Andy]

Hmmm...Danys Baez
How did that work out for you?
Really. Just sayin'.

[Steve5877]

I absolutely agree that another late inning arm is needed. I have no faith in Contreras coming back to form. Also, there are just too many times that your closer or setup man isn't available from back to back nights or injury.

[Mitch]

I wouldn't mind them bringing Lidge back. You can only count on him for so much but he actually pitched pretty well last year. I wouldn't count on Contreras for anything. If he pitches at all it's just a bonus.
A 7 year deal for a guy who is in the kind of shape Fielder is in seems quite a bit risky. Of course I said the same thing about Sabathia.