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Wednesday, November 09, 2011

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I think it's an effort to out-Boras Scott Boras. [EVIL LAUGH] I LIKE IT!

I really dont want Papelbon smear

They'll drive down Madson's value by overpaying Paplebon! Plus, they won't have to pay their 1st rd pick.

Seriously the more this plays on the more it seems like revenge for J.D. Drew

Please, no. Just sign Madson already. Call it getting older, or whatever, but I'm fairly certain I'm unable to achieve a Papelboner.

No, it seems like ownership may have soured on Amaro's tendency to overpay in years and dollars for a particular player he has targeted. Perhaps they have seen the extra year blow up on deals for Ibanez, Contreras, Baez, Polanco, etc. and think that 4 is one year too many for Madson. Plus they also likely recognize that not a single one of their peers has handed out a 4 year contract to a relief pitcher in half a decade...

Or, that's not really what's going on. Could be true, though.

" I'm unable to achieve a Papelboner"

Hilarious.

The leaked deal and ownership's recalcitrance are troubling. Personally, I'd have a similar reaction to a 4 year, 8 figure annual salary deal. With that said, I really want Madson to remain the anchor of this bullpen.

Remember when Papelbon cracked at the end of last season? Yeah. We don't need that.

I'd prefer that they keep the Mad Dog. For obvious reasons.

I think Montgomery prefers Rollins to Madson as I've seen him refer to Jimmy as a legacy player that is carrying on the Phillies brand and culture. I could see his concern that this Madson deal would make brining Jimmy back under their budget difficult.

If ownership is going to block Ruben's moves then the end is near. The dark ages was when ownership was the most hands on (Giles and the gang of four GM). The best era started when they brough in Gillick and said "do what you will." If the owners want to play with the suddenly fun toy then I am dreading the next decade. Things work best when owners say "the budget is X now do your thing."

Sorry gobaystars,got to go with Chris on this one.

It sounds like you agree with the move more than the philosophy. I am whole heartedly against ownership acting as GM. Hire a baseball man you trust and let hime do his thing. If you don't trust him don't hire him. It's how Big Stein sunk the Yankees. It's how Giles sunk the Phillies down in the 80s. It does not work.

Can't wait to read Ruben Amaro's autobiography.

Isn't it possible that Boras leaked the supposed "deal" to force the Phillies hand? Amaro seems to never leak, so there's no way to get the other side of the story.

That's what I was thinking. I wouldn't take anything as gospel, at this point.

Did anyone else see this story? Scary stuff:

Wilson Ramos' Venezuelan Winter League team, the Aragua Tigers, confirmed on Twitter that the Nationals catcher has been kidnapped. Four gunmen approached the 24-year-old near his home and took him away, according to El Nacional. The kidnappers have not yet contacted the family, but they were in touch with the police. Hopefully Ramos has a safe and speedy recovery.

The truth is out there....Madson's wife called Monty and told him she hated the fans.

beat me to it. D'oh!

Are all the Phillies back from Venezuelan winter ball yet?

Also, the Phillies are probably waiting on the CBA which could be done in a day or 2 before they make an official offer. If the CBA was months away they'd wait but with it right there it's best to know exactly what will be the draft pick compensation/penalty for free agent signings.

I'm not sure why you seem to think that a team has the option only to be great or to stink. I've already said the team didn't stink in the first five games, but I never said they were great, either: just as stinky teams don't score three Offensive TDs in 10 minutes, great teams don't give the ball away five times in a single game. They were a team that was fitting the pieces together, and it was pretty painful at times. I had hoped we'd get through the first four games with a 2-2 record because I *knew* there would be growing pains here. 1-3 was disappointing and 1-4 was downright painful.

Not saying ownership should be making baseball decisions, but overriding a deal they see as ludicrous? Why shouldn't they, it's their money. Nobody has given a contract longer than 3 years to a relief pitcher in 5 years, and this deal is 4 + a vesting option to a guy already in his 30s with some injury concerns...it's not outrageous for ownership to veto it, if that's what happened. This deal is WAY outside of the established market.

I agree with Chris, Rube is a GM he has bosses and that's the owners. I bet its that 5th year vesting option. But this could be a game to try and bring Mad Dog's price down somewhat.

TTI & Bed's Beard: last thread I mentioned Texas and Washington in an earlier post, but it was regarding Papelbon's chances at $15m per year, not about Madson. I also mentioned that Madson was probably everyone's top choice on the reliever market because of Papelbon and Bell's initial demands. But, if Was or Tex does give Papelbon $15m per season when they have cheaper options under contract, I'll admit I was wrong...Now that you mention it though, I'd be kinda surprised if they payed Madson closer money too considering Feliz and Storen are dirt cheap. Nothing is impossible though, I guess.

PS: If you don't want to read people randomly guessing, you probably shouldn't read the comment thread on an internet blog. Also, have you ever read mlbtr? pretty sure they are randomly guessing too.

My random gu8ess is that Boras leaked that there were other teams (Texas & Was) interested in Madson so the Phillies leaked that they were interested in Papelbon.

JBird: There are plenty of good beat writers that have their stuff posted on MLBTR. After you read a few of them you get pretty good at figuring out which ones are legit and which ones are usually not.

In my response I was more referring to how NEPP jumped on your post as if it was an absolute fact.

Jbird: I wasn't referring to you, and the post(s) i was referring to was reference RAJ bidding against himself for Madson, when the reality could/is much different. Speculating is fun, pretending to know what's going on when you don't, isn't.

Depending on Cespedes(sp?) going there, I could see Storen being moved. WAS almost dealt him at the deadline last year.

storen being moved for a CFer, I mean.

Also, you're free to randomly guess. Likewise, I'm free to openly mock those that do.

If you don't want to get mocked then don't post random guesses as if they are facts.

The kidnappers have offered to trade Ramos for Ugueth Urbina.

I totally support Jbird's right to make bizarre random guesses and ill-informed, idiotic posts of all sorts.

I also support TTI's right to mock these posts.

It is this freedom of expression that makes BL so much fun.

I just hope the ownership balances the budget because it's the first thing I ask about when I go to see a ballgame. ;-)

Dead horse being beaten.

No budget? No worries. Sign them all and sort them out later.

Am I the only one that gets annoyed as hell when Madson is called "Mad Dog" on these boards? His teammates call him "Doggie" and has even said that he hates "Mad Dog" as a nickname.

Yeah i think so Deadpet...he is called Mad Dog on many boards...

"Our pets' heads are falling off!"

I heard the deal was almost done, but then Amaro read Beer*leaguer, realized he was overpaying for Madson just like he did for Howard, and called the whole thing off.

Mad Dog is far from the worst thing a Phillie has been called around here.

did Randy Miller just tweet that he doesn't want to buy a Mac b/c he's comfortable using AOL? Is AOL still a thing?

Ownership being cheap as always...just get it done, Monty!!!

~ducks~

Clout: fine, my post was "idiotic". so what team do you think will give Papelbon $15m?

re: Madson, here's ESPN's list of the top Closer deals and how those guys fared after the deal was signed

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/18341/ryan-madson-a-bad-risk-at-40-plus-million

I don't understand the hesitation in paying Madson, then turning around and thinking about Papelbon, who will cost just as much if not be more expensive. Madson has been consistently excellent for 4 straight seasons while Papelbon is one year removed from a disastrous season that almost got him traded. Would anyone here actually be happy if they got Papelbon instead of Madson, assuming the contracts would be similar?

How did Madson do as a closer in 2010? Oh, just as bad as Papelbon.


Basically, unless your name is Mo Rivera, you are likely a bad bet for this type of money as a closer.

Nepp: Do you suggest they not pursue either of the top two free agent bullpen arms?

No, not at all. I'm just noting that either is a pretty big risk over 4 years so to argue that Papelbon had a bad season 2 years ago doesnt really fly when we all personally watched Madson go DITHL repeatedly during that very same time period.

Both are big risks at 4 years, $40+ million.

I agree, it's a risk. A risk I'm definitely willing to take considering how this team is designed combined with the current state of the bullpen. Also, I'll take proven bullpen studs over riskier options at this point in the WFC chase.

I am surprised Terry did not pop up to complain about the "Mad Dog" nomenclature proliferation.

Forget the draft pick thing. If they sign Papelbon and offer arbitration to Madson (which he won't take, since he wants several years and would not take the arb to end up as a set-up guy) they'll get themselves a higher draft pick than they'll lose.

And listen: if he DOES take arbitration in that instance, you trade him to one of these teams that wants him; and they'll take him because they're getting him for just one year. And we get some dudes, maybe even some decent dudes, in return.

"If they sign Papelbon and offer arbitration to Madson . . . they'll get themselves a higher draft pick than they'll lose."

Unless it's Top 15 protected -- as it always seems to be when our guys leave and sign elsewhere. In that case, we fall to the supplemental 1st round, where we end up with a no-hoper like Zach Collier instead of a blue chip prospect like Anthony Hewitt.

gobaystars - Not sure if there is anyone else down there but didn't they bring Galvis back or shut him down from the VWL?

Maybe they brought him back because they didn't want him kidnapped.

The whole leaking of the story, especially with the part that Reuben was waiting for Montgomery's approval, seemed like a Boras ploy. Probably more true then not, but it makes Reuben seem weak.

100% a Boras ploy to get other offers. Zero chance he was going to sign with the Phillies without a bidding war. Anyone who has watched any Boras negotiation over the last 10 years should have known that.

Give Joe Nathan 2 yr/$14M and use saved money for SS and other offensive help.

That's probably 1 year and $9million too much.

Beard- you think Nathan will only get 1 year and $5M? His ERA was the only thing bad last season. He still had a good WHIP. He'll be 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery too, which is reportedly when the pitcher's real strength comes back.

NEPP: I heard the kidnappers read the scouting report on Galvis' bat and decided not to bother.

Not surprised that Ramos got abducted.

Was going to add that I am kind of surprised this didn't happen before. Crime in Venezuela has gotten out of control in most of the major urban centers with kidnappings increasingly common.

Even more middle class people only travel in large groups with other family members/close friends in day light in most of Caracas.

Something about the Madson story doesn't make sense. The owners have balked at Madson's price tag, so now we're looking at a fall-back option who will probably cost even more? I agree with NEPP: it smell like a Scott Boras ploy. It would be extraordinarily unusual for a Boras client to sign a quick deal within the first week of free agency.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/offseason-outlook-philadelphia-phillies.html#disqus_thread

of particular interest, at least to me, is the author's advocation of pursuing Reyes. i seem to be the preeminent BL advocate of bringing in Reyes, so i'm glad i have some company.

Who needs Madson, Papelbon, or Nathan? The Phillies have signed Raul Valdez, a 33-year old LOOGY with a .322/.371/.520 career slash line against left-handed hitters.

This "leak" of a deal is probably from Boras. Amaro and Co. are known for being notoriously tight lipped about their free agent pursuits. Case in point: Cliff Lee.

The crazy thing about this signing, Raul Valdez is not his real name. His birth name is Ryan Madson and he took the name Raul Valdez from his 15 year old friend to get a bigger bonus in the baseball academy.

conshy - I would rather see the Phils overpay for Reyes than JRoll especially if JRoll is looking at a minimum of 4 years/48-50M

I think he went on BL to search for a name, and saw the two names mentioned on BL the most last year-"Raul" and "Valdez". Little did he know he should have taken the name "Utley Pence".

MG - me too!

BB - well done!

BAP - A lefty reliever who gets hammered by lefties? Odd signing.

I am sure though that Amaro is in deep preparation for the Rule 5 draft coming up in three weeks at the Winter Meetings (Dec 5-8th)

So wait: There are people that think it is completely ridiculous to give a 4 year/ 44 million dollar contract to a guy who is 31, has a relatively clean injury history, and has steadily improved as a reliever the past 4 seasons BUT it is perfectly acceptable to give a 2 year/ 14 million dollar contract to a guy who is going to be 37, is still regaining strength coming off Tommy John surgery, and whose numbers were trending the wrong direction until they spiked up again in 2009?


No knock on Nathan as I think he has been a fine reliever for a large portion of his career. But there are questions that are there with him that I think make it hard to guarantee that much money.

NEPP- so you are part of the brain-trust that believes in the mythical, magical ability of a pitcher to 'close' games?

I don't care what Madson did with his few opportunities to pitch the ninth inning in 2010. He had a 161 ERA+ and a 2.55 ERA. Papelbon was awful in 2010 no matter what inning he pitched in.

Madson has been the better pitcher the last two seasons.

Personally I'd only want Nathan as a potential buy low candidate brought in as a setup man. Nat a guy I'd want to start the season off as the bullpen anchor.

***I am sure though that Amaro is in deep preparation for the Rule 5 draft coming up in three weeks at the Winter Meetings (Dec 5-8th)***

Rube's endgame goal is to be the first GM in history to throw out 9 Rule 5 guys on Opening Day. Give him a couple more years and he will achieve it.

In the backup catcher market, Rod Barajas signs with Pittsburgh on a 1 year / $4M deal with the expectation of being their starting catcher.

I hope the Orr signing was designed to jam up some other team with a zealous Rule Fiver in the FO.

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