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Tuesday, November 08, 2011

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Given positional scarcity, and the sheer number of innings they play, I can't really bring myself to agree that Madson is more important than Rollins. But it doesn't shock me that RAJ feels that way. RAJ believs in impact players. Madson is an impact reliever. Rollins is a slightly above average shortstop.

I like Ryan Madson, I want him back on the team. Who plays shortstop is more important than who is the closer. Will this team collapse with Heath Bell or Jon Papelbon finishing games? I suspect that Rollins will be back, who else has a glaring hole at short and is going to pay him more than Philly? He will be a Phillie as long as the team wants him to be. And, unless the Phillies put together a package for Asdrubal Cabrera, I can't see anyone else who fits the team.

I don't necessarily disagree w/ anything in JW's write-up. However, it will all be a moot point if the Phillies can't find a way to score some damn Runs. Regardless, the Phillies are more likely to get a decent return throughout the life of whatever deal they'd give Madson than whatever deal J-Roll would accept. Not that I expect to see either one of them playing for the Phillies in '12. r00b seems hell bent on doing something stupid if he can't re-sign Madson, & that stupid has "Papelbon" stitched on the back of his jersey.

Ryan Madson vs. say Joe Nathan or JRoll vs Clint Barmes/Jimmy Carroll?

Going to have to disagree here JW especially if Madson gets that 4th year he is looking for at $10M+

Problem is, this "joe nathan for $5-6mil +others" is made up. Reports are the Phillies Plan B is Paplebon. You know, the other big name FA closer who has playoff experience. They're not looking to go on the cheap and hope it works out. That's the other Philadelphia team.

Bed Beard - Then Amaro is going to pay probably close to $11-$12M per for 3 years (and possibly 4 years) for Madson/Papelbon.

Yeah, I do think it is an incredibly poor use of resources to give either guy (minimum 3 yr/$33-36M and possibly 4 yr/$45-$48M) that kind of deal given some of the other alternatives out on the market place.

Bed Beard - It is also not a matter of being 'cheap' either. The Phils could use that potential difference of say $5M in other ways including upgrading their backup utility INF or bringing in another veteran reliever or two.

Basically is a 'quantity' vs 'quality' argument although I always liked the Russian adage 'quantity has a quality all of its own.'

If Brad Lidge has taught us anything its that paying top dollars for a closer is always a good decision.

"But it doesn't shock me that RAJ feels that way. RAJ believes in impact players. Madson is an impact reliever. Rollins is a slightly above average shortstop."

This is the peril of substituting cliches for thinking. The fact is, Rollins gives you X amount of baseball value, while Madson gives you Y -- and I think most people would agree that Rollins 1300 or so innings of defense and 500+ at bats -- at the level that Rollins plays them -- provides greater accumulated value than Madsons 70+ innings of relief work, contracts aside. It'd be deeply insulting to Amaro to assume he doesn't understand this.

Joe Nathan gets a lot of love on Beerleaguer. We do all realize that he's 37, that 2011 was his worst season since converting to the bullpen (including career-worst peripherals), and that he missed all of 2010 with TJ surgery, then missed another month of 2011?

If some team signs Joe Nathan for the $6M price that people are bandying about, there's a very strong chance that it will turn out to be $6M spent badly.

Or he could be back to 100% in his 2nd year removed from TJ surgery...so perhaps signing would be a smart "buy low" type of move.

Lidge had a history of injury problems to his shoulder, elbow and knee and long periods of ineffectiveness. Madson has been healthy except for his own stupid behavior and effective for 3 straight years. I wouldn't compare the two beyond that they play for the Phillies.

"It'd be deeply insulting to Amaro to assume he doesn't understand this."

You obviously haven't been paying attention to the off-season. From the beginning, we've heard whispers out of the front office that they regard Madson as a higher priority than Rollins. Now we see them putting on a full court press to re-sign Madson, not Rollins. I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that they think Madson is the higher priority, regardless of how many innings each player plays.

I might add that, while I don't agree, I don't feel like I'm "deeply insulting" RAJ by saying that he prefers impact closers over 60th percentile shortstops. In fact, I can kind of understand where he's coming from. Madson may only give you 70 innings, but they're high-leverage innings in which he performs at an elite level. Rollins gives you 500+ ABs, about 350 of which result in weak pop-ups. Not to mention that he's got a manager who insists on batting him in a lineup spot which maximizes the damage he does to the offense. While that's not Jimmy's fault, it is, unfortunately, part of the package that you sign up for if you lock him up for 3 more years.

Would that be the same Amaro that said Ibanez would give us the same production in 2011 as Werth because they both have about the same number of RBIs?

Wow this discussion will be a good one. Ok so say we don't get either, sign jfraud and have k rod closing or matt Capps. And he blows ten saves and we don't get into playoffs. We need a top tier closer period. We don't have the pieces like st Louis or Texas does. We owe it to our starting pitchers who can give us 7 to finish the win. Plain and simple. And say for example galvis hits 270/280 in aaa and had same numbers as Jimmy where to we put him then? Some minor league lists have him as best Ss in minors. So long Jimmy cya later

I understand that a SS is on the field much more than a closer, and impacts the team with his bat as well as his glove.

However, the closer can pretty much single-handedly cost the team a win that they had in hand. It's less likely that the SS will directly and individually affect the game's result on any given day. And it's horribly frustrating to lose in the 9th inning after one of your aces has pitched well.

However, as to whether we must have Madson as opposed to Bell, Papelbon, or Nathan, that is up for debate.

And I certainly don't mean to discount the value of a good SS.

"Would that be the same Amaro that said Ibanez would give us the same production in 2011 as Werth because they both have about the same number of RBIs?"

Funny how that turned out in 2011.
Same HR total.
Ibanez with better SLG%
Comparable runs scored
Ibanez w/ 26 RBIs more than Werth, which is meaningless, of course. Right?

Galvis would probably hit 270/280 in the Majors next year...unfortunately that would likely be his OBP, not his AVG.

.232 .330 .389 .718
.245 .289 .419 .707

NEPP - In 2011, Werth was arguably better than Ibanez. But not much.

**Funny how that turned out in 2011**

Yes, it was funny but at the time, he was basing it off of the 2010 totals. There we no reason to expect Werth to have a terrible year in 2011.

It's kind of like trying to decide which stinks worse, the trash with the 3 day dead raccoon in it, or the trash with the 3 day possum in it.

One could make the argument that Rube is the Prince of Darkness and, simply, "knows stuff." Or maybe he did some voodoo on Werth.

The part of the argument which should be noted is that Ibanez did not replace Werth - he only replaced himself from the previous year. The production that replaced Werth was the Francisco/Brown experiment plus Pence. And the money went to Lee.

But the offense without Werth dropped down sever...errr...wait: I mean, the offense CLIMBED from second in R/G to seventh. That's not all on Werth of course. But losing the production he brought in 2010 did make some difference.

This either/or debate is interesting, but I can't help but think we'll see both Madson and Rollins here next season.

the hook and gbrettfan make the right points i think, you can't look at it, yes will the team be worse with a ss who isn't the level of Jroll or better: of course. But, will it be even worse with a terrible closer and/or between madson and jroll, who gives you the better performance over the life of their respective contacts, which should both come in at 3 or 4 years. Clearly on paper, you have to pick madson in that scenario. So all things being equal, madson is the better expenditure. I think it's pretty clear the phillies can't or won't afford both.

Andy: Possum. Definitely the Possum.

I agree with JW here. Rube may be delaying dealing with Rollins because JRoll, after seeing his worth in the market, will be more willing to settle for less than he now wants. With Madson, OTH, best strategy may be to act soon.

and furthermore: who has the better chance to improve over the lifer of their contracts: madson.

Pretty easy to see Jimmy will start declining soon and his offense isn't great anymore. I'll miss his fielding and baserunning more than his bat. His bat stinks. But overall, he's just not worth the money someone is going to pay him. Let someone else overpay.

the hook: some rate Galvis the best defensive shortstop in the minors, not the best all around shortstop. Best all-around shortstop is probably Baltimore's Manny Machado or Texas' Jurikson Profar, both of whom can actually hit for average and some power.

I was thinking about that myself upon hearing that there are negotiations between Madson and Papelbon going on with the Phils. Lost in my head for a while this off season was the pre and post Wagner Phils before Lidge where you basically wanted to win the game by as much as possible because no lead was safe. The 9th inning should be as automatic as possible. Re-signing Madson or bringing in Papelbon would help make that happen.

BAP - "Madson may only give you 70 innings, but they're high-leverage innings in which he performs at an elite level."

Accept when Cholly uses him in 4+ runs situations which he used him 10 times last year (out of 62 games).

That was an improvement over the year before though when he used him 12 times when they had a 4+ run lead (out of 55 games).

Yes I know the stick isn't there yet. But if u got a glove that is gonna be ready, and you got to get younger then u do. I just feel if we give jfraud 4 years and his inability to change his approach at plate as a lead off. Then it is time to say good-bye. There is no reason why he couldn't get 200 hits if he would have tweaked his approach. Gap to gap not over fence.

***off topic warning***

How great a name is Jurickson Profar?

What trade targets might be out there at SS? Drew, Itzuris, and Lowrie are some names I read. Are there any others? And considering Drew's price tag and injury history would the DBacks trade him at a discount?

Phillies save percentage:

Phils SV% vs NL avg SV%

2011: 85% (55 saves, 8 blown saves) vs 69%
2010: 68% (59 saves, 19 blown saves) vs 69%
2009: 67% (66 saves, 22 blown saves) vs 67%
2008: 76% (62 saves, 15 blown saves) vs 62%
2007: 67% (63 saves, 21 blown saves) vs 61%
2006: 66% (64 saves, 22 blown saves) vs 60%
2005: 63% (63 saves, 23 blown saves) vs 61%
2004: 63% (68 saves, 25 blown saves) vs 66%
2003: 65% (51 saves, 18 blown saves) vs 69%
2002: 66% (71 saves, 24 blown saves) vs 69%

Clear outliers are 2008 and 2011 for the Phils in this list largely because of Lidge in '08 (48 for 48) and Madson in '11 (32 for 34) but Contreras (5 for 5) and Bastardo (8 for 9) were also important.

Guess what that list tells me at first glance is that the save percentage is pretty consistent in the NL (~65%) and the Phils have spent decent money most years on an established closer (Mesa 02-03, Wagner 04-05, Gordon 06-07, Lidge 08-11) and got just about league average performance out of their pen anyways in terms of % SV.

If the Phils largely just end up resigning Madson/JRoll and don't get another bat or really upgrade upgrade bench/bullpen depth, it will have been a pretty damn underwhelming offseason.

I see RAJ's thinking on preferring Madson over our shortstop for the ages. Jimmy Rollins has been hurt on and off since the magical 2008 season (MIA 74 games in '10). He's an old 32, and refuses to believe that he's anyone else than a leadoff hitter who homers. And, his injury-prone arse could be locked up through 2015.

I've faced facts. I used to be a huge Jimmy Rollins fan. Now I see him as an injury-prone ego that might start poisoning clubhouses if he's not deferred to; that is, used in his own vision. Let him wreak havoc somewhere else.

Play Freddy Galvis. Surely RAJ can reconcile Galvis' fine glove and iffy offense with some sort of offensive "pick me up" acquisition. I want a worry-free, injury-free SS who can flat out pick it in '12. Our pitching deserves that. We can find Rollin's 16 HRs somewhere else.

I'm not sure how many people here have actually seen Galvis play, but I have numerous times. For those calling for him to be the ss....it won't take long for you to turn on him if that comes to fruition. He is not a starting ss for a contending team. The Galvis talk is silly, much like the Francisco talk of last year, perhaps more so.

A moment to reflect and appreciate the Phils' brass:

The Twins just announced they're shedding 15% of their payroll next year (about 15 million). They are in the third year of a new, taxpayer-funded park, the revenues of which were supposed to keep their payroll competitive/afloat.

Here's to the Phils, for not being so pre-2000s Phils-like anymore.

This doesn't have any real bearing on what the right offseason moves are, or any broad validity at all in terms of the team's strengths and weaknesses, but while we're talking about "owing" stuff to the aces it's worth remembering how our "debt" to the aces got there in the first place, i.e. what the immediate causes were for our postseason failures in '10 and '11. In '10, the aces were let down by the offense, and by Madson himself to some extent. In '11 they were again let down by the offense, and also by themselves (stinky starts from Lee and Oswalt). I think you can make a case that it would be a disservice to the aces to let the bullpen lapse into mediocrity, but the offense has been a considerably more glaring problem when it comes to crushing Roy x2's and Cliff's dreams, even if it's been entirely due to October SSSs.

I am going to sign Bell, the Cuban OF guy and Yuniesky.
-Ruben Amaro Jr

We are not saying galvis is answer this year. The fact that he is young and at AAA then y sign him when we can stop gap and let him mature. Look at the last 10 yrs of SS that has won the world series. It certainly isn't Tulo or Hanley etc... Sure jeter and Jroll but who are the others and what types of players were they?

On SS vs CL:
I think that a SS is more important than a CL. The numbers seem to back that up.

JRoll on D: about 560 PO+A per season
Madson on D: about 186 outs per season as a reliever

However, are the outs really the same? Madson's outs are high-pressure 9th inning outs where as JRoll's outs are mostly in other innings.

What about the difference between "good" players like themselves and "bad" players? A "bad" SS may cough up 15 runs a year. A bad CL may cough up 30+ runs per year. Or put another way, Would you rather have '11 Mini-Mart at SS or '09 Lidge as CL? If you chose Mini-Mart, then perhaps CL is more important than you think?

-Stop with the "JFraud" BS.
-I see some posters are already setting the offseason up as a failure- before it's really even gotten started.

I favor filling the shortstop hole with either Furcal or Barmes, provided we get Cuddyer or another big bat. Let's not bank on Galvis too soon.

BTW, about Cuddyer's deafness: according to this article, he's been deaf since he was 11--doesn't sound like it's been that much of a problem for the Twins:

http://www.alldeaf.com/deaf-news/17461-im-deaf-my-left-ear.html

About Madson--I'd rather see the money that we'll spend on him go to resigning Oswalt at a reduced price. If Little Roy really does want to stay in the National League and play for a contender, we're still the best fit for him. Think for a minute what our rotation looks like without him: Cliff, Doc, and Cole, then Worley and Blanton, with Kendrick in reserve. If Blanton goes on the DL again, and one of the big three gets injured, Kendrick can't fill both holes, and we could wind up seeing Herndon or someone similar as a starter--a truly nightmarish thought.

If Oswalt goes elsewhere (I hope it's not to those damn Nationals), we still should be saving some dollars to sign an additional starter as insurance in case we wind up with two pitchers on the DL again.

I'm with BedBead. The J-Roll-bashing is getting way over-the-top. Klaus pretty much laid out what my thoughts were on BAP's ridiculous statement much more articulately than I ever could.

Given that there's absolutely no evidence and no statements from RAJ that pursuing and signing Madson means that the Phils aren't going to pursue and eventually sign Rollins, I don't think a debate over which player is more valuable to the team needs to be had right now. They're both valuable contributors to the club and have been for a while.

If it really does come down to an either-or situation (which I don't think will be the case), you'd have to tell me who you'd be replacing them with before I made up my mind on which one to keep- especially in the case of Rollins. If you are replacing Rollins with the likes of Jamey Carroll or Exxon, that is a massive downgrade for which I don't believe there is an adequate analogy that could be made in Madson's case. It would be like replacing Madson with Stutes, only we'd have to deal with it every game instead of just 60 or 70.

"Would you rather have '11 Mini-Mart at SS or '09 Lidge as CL? If you chose Mini-Mart, then perhaps CL is more important than you think?"

Not that I want Brad Lidge back -- let alone as closer. But you'd have to be out of your freaking mind if you'd rather have Mini-Mart as the starting SS than Lidge as the closer.

offseason=over

If RAJ cannot sign both Madson and JR, then you have to look at the value of each over the entire term of their contract, not just '12. If you assume whichever you sign gets a 3 or 4-yr deal, then I think you have to go with Madson.

Sure, there could be a significant drop off at SS in '12 by whoever replaces Rollins, but what about '13, '14 and '15?? How serious will JRoll's decline be in those years? What about his recent injury history? If the Phillies do not re-sign JRoll, then they are gambling that they can find a starting SS who will better on opening day 2013 than Rollins will be on opening day 2013. That seems like a good gamble. They will take the potential hit in 2012 rather than give a big $$ long term deal to Rollins.

On the other hand, there is no reason to think that you wouldn't get full value for Madson over those 4 seasons. He's young, no injury history, and now has closer experience on a playoff team. He's the best closer on the market. You should not be signing any other closer if the reason is just to save $$ in order to keep JRoll.
I do not see any other available closer giving you the same level of value over a 4-yr span as Madson will. Sure, Nathan, Bell, Papelbon might give you a solid '12, but then you face filling the closer role again in '13 and beyond unless you had signed one of them to a 3-4 yr deal. (Papelbon is the only realistic candidate among that group for a long term deal, and that makes sense only if he is significantly cheaper than Madson)

If it requires a 3-4 yr commitment to sign either JRoll or Madson, then you sign Madson. You will get better value over the life of the contract.

Best case is JRoll agrees to a shorter deal (2 yrs?), which allows a smooth transition to whoever is his replacement. Probably not going to happen.

Lidge 4 years/$2300 a year

Lidge 4 years/$2300 a year

Too many years, too much money. I'd offer 0 years/$0.00 per.

Madson for 4 years with a possible 5th one?

"According to Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, the Phillies are closing in on a four-year contract with Ryan Madson.
The deal could include a vesting option for a fifth year. Madson's agent Scott Boras usually doesn't work this quickly, but it's hard to see him doing much better elsewhere. The Phillies have also been in touch with Jonathan Papelbon, but it makes the most sense to keep Madson, as it won't cost them a first-round pick as compensation. Still, four years (and perhaps five) is a pretty long commitment for a relief pitcher."

Whatever happened to the rule where you only sign a pitcher to 3 yrs especially to one that will be 32 next year?

The only reliever I can think of that got a similar deal was Mo Rivera in '01 at 31 when he got a 4 yr/$40M deal. Giving any reliever what might be a guaranteed 5 year deal is nuts.

Glad to see him get a good closer and get this done (hopefully) with that being said. Madson is only 31 no injury history and can throw the pill. This will allow hopefully the two AAA studs and stutes and bastardo, To develop into a hard throwing pen. With above ave second pitches. This will be a young strong pen and cheap I might add in a few years! The game is changing and glad Ruben is on board and putting resources into keeping the starting pitching and backend of pen is solid.

If the report about a four year deal and a vesting option for a fifth is true, it will once again prove to be one year too long (possibly two). Ruben can't seem to quit bidding against himself (Polanco and Ibanez come to mind). Both those players got deals that was one year too long. Polanco should be waiver wire fodder this winter, instead he'll serve as a $6MM platoon player in the spring. A 2 year/$20MM contract for Ibanez would have looked a whole lot better than 3 years.

It's too early in free agency to be giving four or five years to a reliever. Three years, I'm elated. Four years is too much.

http://twitter.com/#!/TBrownYahoo/status/134043581429202944

looks like 4 yrs $44 mil. fifth year vesting for $13

Seems excessive.

4 years Rube?!?

What a shock that Rube gave at least 1 more year than he should have with a FA contract.

That's so out of character for him.

LG: they wouldn't have gotten Ibanez for 2 years. Perhaps, at that point, they should've walked away, but they got him.

4 years and 44 million? I am a big Maddog fan, but that's just insanity. For that kind of money and that long a commitment, I'd rather make KK the closer and take my chances. Holy #$%! What in the heck do they teach these dopes at Stanford University? Are we sure Rube actually attended Stanford? Because the Columbia School of Arrogant Broadcasting had an opening that year.

Sunday we got up to a down-pour, and headed to the early service at our church. Our church has just completed a huge add on that has more than doubled the size of the church and it was the first Sunday in the new sanctuary. It was a beautiful service, and it was packed! After church we headed home to change since it was much cooler than expected, then we headed out to my parents and it rained the entire drive, thankfully nothing severe although we were a little late. We had a delicious lunch and then the kids had egg hunt #2. My mom has a huge basket of fake apples in her living room, and David always plays with them, instead of putting eggs in his basket, he loaded it up with apples.

What's up with the spam filter lately. I think there was an unprovoked football post and now something easter eggs?

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