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Friday, November 04, 2011


18 years old? In six short years we may just see this guy as a September call up!

Galvis' glove might be MLB ready, but I maintain his bat will never be.

The other problem for Maikel, is that there are other guys now in the system who could be real left side infielders (from the 2011 draft). They're at least the same age and might, actually, have more upside than he does. It will all depend on who moves the quickest from a group of about four guys.

I just hope these guys turn out to be as talented as Dom Brown!

the question is, does Baseball America think Galvis could be our starting SS in 2012?

Lower expectations may be exactly what Dom Brown needs. The Phils admittedly called him up twice when he wasn't ready.

Timr: No he'll be up in four, as the starter, then he'll predicitably struggle through about 40 games, injure himself, and then 3 years later finally come up once ruben is convinced he has his "500-600" ab's in AAA that he only missed because Ruben mismanaged him to begin with.

This list looks more like one from the 90s. Some possible talent there but generally a pretty depleted system. Hoepfully Amaro uses some of the likely compensation picks he gets from either Madson/JRoll resigning elsewhere to rebuild a little more depth in the minor league system.

I am curious to see who gets the R-Phils job though. Had dinner up in Reading last night with my uncle & family friend who scouts Eastern League/New York Penn league as independent.

He heard through the rumor mill the Phils will move up Dusty Wathan who was the manager at Clearwater to take the R-Phils job next year with Parent's departure to the White Sox. He also added the Phils seemed to be pretty pleasantly surprised by Morandini's performance at Williamsport.

Just waiting to see where they should place Tracy (Williamsport/Lakewood) and if they will move up Truby form Lakewood to Clearwater next year.

It is always kind of interesting to look at where AA managers end up. Usually a pretty plum minor league position given how important the AA-team is and how many prospects end up playing there.

Phils have had an interesting lot at Reading the last 10-12 years:

Gary Varsho (99-01): Had some success as the RPhils' manager winning the Eastern League crown in '01. Phils' bench coach from '02-'06 and was actually an interim manager for 2 days in '04 after they fired Bowa. He was the Pirates' bench coach until he was fired in Aug 2010. Couldn't find a quick update on what he is doing now.

Greg Legg (02-04) - Underwhelming manager of the R-Phils for 3 years. He is has been the hitting coach at Lakewood the past few years. Drafted by the Phils and kind of strikes me as an organizational guy the Phils keep around regardless of the results just like the bad old days in the mid-1980s through the early 2000s.

Steve Swisher (05) - Nick Swisher's dad. A really odd choice to be the RPhils' manager given that he hadn't managed a minor league club since '97. Let go by the Phils after 1 season.

PJ Forbes (06-08) - Another underwhelming manager at Reading who basically got demoted by excepting a managing job with the Pirates' affiliate in the Carolina league.

Managed to work his way back up to the Pirates' AA team in Altoona this past year. No word on if he will be back in '12 as the manager there.

Steve Roadcap (09-10) - Joined the Phils' organization in '06 as the manager at Batavia. Modest results with the R-Phils making the Eastern League playoffs in '09. Basically another filler manager.

He has been a career minor league manager journeyman have managed minor league clubs since the early 90s including in the Cubs, Mariners, and Phils' system. Couldn't find a quick update on where he was at in '11.

More minor league time isn't really going to help Brown's crummy defense. He's been a corner OF since '07 in the minors. He is supposed to magically notably improve with another 40-50 games in LF? Nah. The only reason the Phils moved him from RF to LF is they know he is a lost cause defensively. You just bury him in LF as you would any crappy defensive OF.

The real question is whether he is going to hit for average (.270-.290) and moderate power (20-25 HRs) at the MLB level and become a solid baserunner who steals ~20 SBs annually. He does that and it doesn't matter about his defensive shortcomings in LF.

Ryne Sandberg also won at every coaching job he's had, right? The fact that the WS champs want to hire him to replace Tony LaRussa says they think highly of him. If only he was a journeyman like Mark Parent, and not a major league Hall of Famer, he'd get some credit.

BB - That's true and you will like this article then which praises Sandberg pretty heavily:

JW: "The Phils admittedly called him up twice when he wasn't ready."

He was better than Ben Francisco when he was called up, so the Phils made the right choice at the moment.

If that ends up hurting his development down the road, then it is a mistake, but not so sure how that can proven/disproven.

Braves are stupid. They now have a gaping hole at SS and are looking at having to spend big $$ to fill it while Yunel Escobar will be 29yrs old with a .290/.365/.400 career line and is locked up until 2015 with team options at $5M per year.

Ha, they suck.

My hope is that Mackanin gets the Suuuox job and Francona gets the Cards job and that Sandberg becomes our bench coach in 2012.

Ryno then takes over as the manager in 2013.

"If that ends up hurting his development down the road, then it is a mistake, but not so sure how that can proven/disproven."

It can't. Besides, I've never much bought into the theory that calling up a guy too soon can permanently ruin him. We can all think of numerous guys who were called up before they were ready & somehow recovered to have good, and sometimes even great, careers. Roy Halladay springs immediately to mind.

"Ha, they suck."

Right. Cause if they were smart, they'd be stockpiling the suckiest utility guys in the big leagues to replace the free agent shortstop they really can't afford to re-sign. I bet they're asking about Pete and Mini-Mart even as I type.

bap - And Schmidt.

Andy: Yep. And Alex Gordon. And Paul Konerko. And Adrian Beltre. And Shane Victorino. And so on.

Then again, the Phils elevated Michael Martinez to the big leagues before he was ready, and something tells me he may never recover from the traumatic experience.

R.I.P. Dom Brown, we hardly knew you.

Why was his career destroyed before it even started!?!?

Remember those 4 months or so where we had an elite, stock-piled farm system? That was fun.

I'm well on the record as siding with Carson - Galvis's bat will NEVER be ready for the big boy Phillies. He might be something the Braves would consider, though...

As far as Brown goes, I did see an update - he's still not playing Winter Ball, and his emotional scarring seems to be repairing itself via non-physical therapy. He's resting comfortably on his couch, which should help his defense next season. Nothing to worry about at all.

There have been a lot of no defense/good hitting OF's over time (Burrell, Manny, Vlad, etc.), so Brown isn't a lost cause if he can simply become even slightly below average.

The big key, however, is his offense. The Phillies (and fans) will tolerate his defensive shortcomings, but he needs to develop some consistency offensively first. As much as he gets bashed for his defensive horror show since his last demotion, it's his offensive numbers during that same stint that scare the hell out of me.

Just b/c he's not playing winter ball, doesn't mean the Phillies are having Brown work on his defense. Hell, I'd rather have him shagging fly balls in Clearwater every day, than going to Winter ball.

Brown does need work on his offense. But, I wouldn't be surprised if his absolutely horrendous defense weighs on his game. It's one thing to be "average" or "Kinda bad" out there, but when your Brown Bad, you gotta be at the point you're scared of messing up anything that comes your way. That weighs on you.

are="aren't" above.

Considering his defense, what would Galvis have to hit to be "worth" having as a starter (and no, I don't think he will or should be the starter next year). .245/.315/.370? Would that be enough if the defense was sparkling? Does anyone think he can do that? His line from AA & AAA combined this year was .278/.324/.392

*** He's resting comfortably on his couch, which should help his defense next season. ***

Brown couldn't catch the floor if he fell off his couch.

Galvis would be lucky to put up Mini Mart type numbers as an MLB player next year.

"As much as he gets bashed for his defensive horror show since his last demotion, it's his offensive numbers during that same stint that scare the hell out of me."

I'm completely with you on this. I can live with rotten defense in left field, but I can't live with a corner outfielder who seems totally incapable of squaring up on a pitch and hitting the ball hard. That was Dom, in a nutshell, last year. I like the plate discipline, but Steve Jeltz used to have good plate discipline too.

Yes, brown's offense is what matters. We'll likely just have to accept the fact his defense will always stink. He just doesn't look like he's even properly coordinated out there. Oh well. Take the burrell approach and at least teach him how to throw the ball well since he'll never field anything cleanly. At least Pat did have a plus arm out there, he had the lead in OA one year i remember.

I also think beard makes a good point that perhaps his nervousness over his fielding might be mentally draining and affecting his hitting. Might be nice if they can find the right person to tell him, your just always going to be a lousy outfielder but don't let it bother you.

People also always need to remember with him that he converted to baseball at a late age.

NEPP: I'm not talking about next year. I'm wondering, if Galvis' defense is truly magical, what would he have to hit to be a starter for a team like the Phillies (or have trade value to someone else).

***People also always need to remember with him that he converted to baseball at a late age.***

Its also important to note that he majored in Culinary Arts as a possible butcher before he took his deal with the Phillies. He was a 2 way guy prior to focusing on baseball.

Wasn't morandini looked at as a no hit/good glove guy? ended up having a decent career.

mm, Morandini had a "decent career," sure, but not on a team expected to compete for a World Series every year.

This Phillies team doesn't have the luxury of trotting out a no-hit/all-glove prospect, just to see what he can do. Especially with an injured Howard, and a possibly regressing Utley. Simply put, they NEED someone who can hit, and would probably even sacrifice a bit of defense for it. Galvis is the exact opposite of that.

Martinez, in his last minor league season which he split between AA and AAA:

.272/.312/.408/ .720 OPS

Galvis, in his last minor league season which he split between AA and AAA:

.278/324/.392/ .716 OPS

Galvis is much younger than Mini-Mart & seems to be improving. I don't think he'd hit .196 if he were a full-time starter next year. But .220 seems very plausible.

.220? Sign me up!!!

"Simply put, they NEED someone who can hit, and would probably even sacrifice a bit of defense for it."

True. Unfortunately, Rollins doesn't really fit my definition of "someone who can hit." It's just that he's the least crappy of the alternatives.

Did the "hands held lower" Dom Brown experiment flop; perhaps just as the "stand closer to the plate" Ryan Howard experiment? What kills me -- aside from Ryan's terrible injury -- is how the league got the "book" on Ryan Howard after some ground-breaking offensive production seasons.

Two questions:
* Why can't Dom Brown just watch the ball hit the bat and rake? With his bat speed, how hard could it be? Is his swing that long?
* Why is Ryan Howard unable to manage slow breaking ball specialists/left-handers in general?

I wonder if the prolonged time off helps Mr. Howard get some confidence back. As soon as he learns to trust his back foot, here's hoping he's "off to the races". 'Cause he's ours for a long, long time.

BAP, Agreed on Rollins. He's the cutest looking pig out there, I guess.

Consistency isn't his strong suit, but when he gets hot, he's as good hitting a SS as there is outside of HanRam and Reyes, assuming he's still got it in him. He's less of a risk, in the short term. The problem is that he's looking to stick around for longer than the short term.

It is interesting. I raised the Galvis or a similar no hit all glove guy to replace JRoll a few months back before we had an idea there would be no bat at other positions starting off the season next year. I really believed they could get away with it. Now I really think they will be screwed if they don't make a real attempt at small ball and they can't possibly bring JRoll back as he simply refuses to bat for average.

RG -- "Jimmy being Jimmy" will never settle for the slap-hitting Ichiro Suzuki style. A leadoff guy who homers is part of who Jimmy Rollins is. What a conundrum...

In re: Brown
Important to remember that many of the bad defense LFs are bad primarily because their as slow as granite boulders. In Brown's case it's more because he chooses bad routes. Consistently. The latter is coachable (depending on whether he allows himself to be coached, of course); whereas not even St. LaRussa can teach a 5 ton rock to run.

In re: Galvis
I like the idea of letting Freddie play short and signing Albert Pujols to play third. They complement each other in such astounding ways, I think.

Also in re: Galvis
He has improved in his hitting as he's gotten older, appearing to get stronger, actually. I'm not ready to consign him to being the next Mini-Mart. Whether he's worth it in the very near future does not depend so much on his own hitting, either, but on that of the LF or 3B that is in the line-up and whether Utley is recovering or declining.

Andy: "Cause if they were smart, they'd be stockpiling the suckiest utility guys in the big leagues to replace the free agent shortstop they really can't afford to re-sign."

If they were smart they wouldn't have dealt Yunel Esobar, as my post stated. For some reason you took my mocking of the Braves as praising the Phillies - something you apparently can't stand.

What number does BA have Franco at in our system?

Galvis: So glad all of you know he'll be a major league failure. You've got it made,there are teams looking for "EXPERT" major league scouts. Get a job,use your expertise.

What in Galvis' minor league career makes you think he could handle MLB pitching? So many people are hype out his "breakout" performance at the plate last year, and honestly it's still pretty paltry. He's young and can field. Maybe he'll end up a John McDonanld like career utility journey man, but starting SS, I sure as hell don't think so.

jr: No one claims to "know" he'll be a major failure. But you don't have to be a scout to look at his minor league numbers & make an informed prediction about his major league prospects -- or, at the very least, his short-term major league prospects. Remember how many of us were looking at Mini-Mart's minor league numbers & predicting he'd be a colossal failure, while others staunchly maintained that he'd be a perfectly fine utility infielder because "the Phillies' scouts obviously see something in him?" Which group do you think got that one right?

I'm a little more optimistic on gavlis than carson/bap - but even I can't foresee Galvis being a starting MLB SS anytime soon.

"Unfortunately, Rollins doesn't really fit my definition of "someone who can hit." It's just that he's the least crappy of the alternatives."

Statements like these just blow me away with their stupdity. It's gotten to the point where I almost hope Rollins walks just to watch the people who rag on him all the time sit through a season (or seasons) of a slap-hitting SS that kicks the ball around at inopportune times.

And as far as Galvis goes, he's 21 years old! I don't think he should be this team's shortstop if they are serious about contending in 2012, but let's stop writing the kid's obituaries while he's still got his training wheels on.

Agreed, what i see in galvis's #'s are incremental improvement in his hitting. He might not ever be the best hitter in the league, but he might get to the point of at least being a solid backup or a lower end starter.

And this whole "but he's not good enough for he phillies" thing is a crock. You've watched the owners go out and sign a new 20+ million dollar a year player every year for the past 4 years. It's not going to happen EVERY off season. Your not going to have an all star at EVERY position. We've been lucky to have a ss of rollins's calliber for this many years. It doesn't mean that every ss who plays for the phillies until the end of time will be equal to or better than Jimmy Rollins.

Everyone,including scouts knew Mini was a joke. What did you want them to say: They knew the cheapest possible 25th man was needed,ok here he is.Where do you think He'll be in 2012?

Galvis was pushed aggressively through the system despite the fact that he hasn't really hit well at any level until this year. It's kinda surprising how he's been handled, actually. Now that he's been at AAA, I'm not sure what the team plans to do with him. Leave him in AAA for 3 years?

Galvis's upside is probably Adam Everett. is that enough for a championship level team?

NEPP: Must every player at every position be an all star on a championship caliber team? It takes a mix to build any team, winning teams are not excluded from that. Did you have David Frees in your World Series MVP pool in April 2011?

Iceman: I get it. Rollins is an above average hitter (albeit, barely) for a shortstop and far better than any of the reasonably available alternatives. If the terms are reasonable, I'd like to re-sign him. But, putting aside the issue of positional scarcity, he's certainly not a "good offensive player." If we re-sign him, it won't be because of the huge positive impact he makes on our offense. It will be because he's still good defensively, he's seen as a team leader & franchise icon and, aside from the unaffordable Reyes, he's the least bad offensive shortstop on the FA market.

My only concern with Rollins and resigning him is if we keep him as the leadoff hitter. I dont see UC dropping him in the lineup.

I don't know that anyone who is tempering their enthusiasm on Rollins is doing so because they think that he can't contribute. Personally, my concerns are less about his ability to provide above average defense and sound offense (for the position) for 2012. It's the 4 years after that that scare me.

I don't know that anyone would screech too much about a 3 year deal. Trouble is, that's not what he's asking for.

cut: Dom's problem at the MLB level was fastballs on his hands. He was unable to get his hands down and his bat close enough to his body to handle fastballs on the inside corner.

Supposedly they worked with him on lower the bat enough in his stance so he could get it down and in as needed, but I saw no improvement.

He's still a work in progress. At age 23 last season he put up an OPS+ of 97. That is not too shabby. I think he'll learn how to handle the inside stuff. The glove will take more time.

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