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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

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"reinforcing the value of traditional stats and players representing elite teams."

= reinforcing the notion that MVP voters don't actually watch the games.

Brown/Mayberry in left sounds like a really good (non) platoon -- yes I know Charlie doesn't platoon. Wait, what's that? Mayberry's at first? I still don't want Aaron Rowand.

I'm pretty sure I could tolerate anyone even another tour of duty with Raul over Rowand. The man is more done than done!

Honestly, Raul is one of the more attractive options on the list. But Manuel must platoon him.

Just think the Phils need to inject some youth into the lineup. I'd prefer to gamble on youth at a position like left.

Didn't Manual essentially platoon Mayberry/Ibanez last year?

I agree with the Dom Brown choice. If his defense can be passable, he should be the lefthanded bat.

Rowand would be an absolutely awful choice.

Exactly. With the purse kind of tight to lock up Hamels and sign Rollins, why are they so quick to blow millions on some guy who's over the hill? Even at his worst, is Brown not going to run into enough to get a tolerable line at the end of the season?

How do the Beerleaguers feel about the Ryan Howard contract now?

Given that a 9 year $200M contract that takes him through (at least) the age of 40 is not enough to sign Pujols. Does a 5 yr $125M that takes him through age 37 seem like a better deal for Howard?

I'd say it puts the Howard contract on the high side of reasonable.

my guess is that Mayberry will be the starting and everyday LF, while Wigginton will start the season at 1B. we'll see if Dom gets the call to the show, and if he does, he'll probably see a good amount of time in LF. those days, Mayberry will man 1B, or Thome on the rare occassion.

In re: Salisbury's list
Nix is Pete Happy in the OF.

Kubel is Pat the Bat Lite

Willingham is a Werth Wannabe without the footspeed

DeJesus is a 4th OF, like a slightly better LH version of BenFran

Most of the rest are, if one is speaking BLish, "washed up"

Cuddyer is clearly the only good upgrade and he's pretty darned expensive

If I were Ruben I'd be real real tempted to figure last year was a learning experience and go with Dom in LF to start the year
Or sign Cespedes and trade Brown.

Even the finest advocate in the world would have trouble coming up with a cogent argument why bringing back Aaron Rowand would be a good idea.

Given the finite budget, and the Phillies' other needs, I'd just as soon go with Dom as the 5th outfielder. But if the Phillies think he'd be better off playing every day in the minors, Kubel would actually be a good choice since he's not super old, hits RH pitching well, and has an upside (.907 OPS in 2009) that others on the list don't have. I do not want Ibanez back. The Phillies need someone who can play close to every day because, for at least the first few months of the season (if not more), that's what this player will have to do.

I wonder if they could send Brown, Blanton and some dudes to the White Sox for Tank Viciedo.

What they do with Brown is a big decision. His bat might still be a work in progress, but if his defense is passable he should get the calll as he's a cheap option with obvious upside.

Or, if they can move him for another young impact bat/arm, they should consider it. Unfortunately, his value isn't what it was, but if they can get close enough to full value I'd be ok with moving him.

bap - I think the Phanatic banged his car into the OF walls from the other side and they need fenceface to run into them to straighten them out.

(My best cogent argument.)

So I guess Cespedsyes is the answer. I would offer him an amount equal to the combined ages of Jose C. + Yoenis divided by 2 for an eight year contract.

Yes give brown the shot. I dont want rowand. There's a reason why SF got rid of him. That dog don't hunt no more. As I stated in a post last week. The philles are in a really good position if, and I mean if. Some of the prospects they have in A AA, and AAA really pan out. Galvis at short. Cesar at second. Valle behind the dish. And Franco at third. And Dom if he can get it right. Two years from now this could be a really dynamic scenario that will be upon us. The bullpen will still be young and cheap. Hopefully Cole, doc, cliff will still be pumping out wins. And with hunter and Howard and maybe Vic. The team will still be in great position to win. With an owner(s) who loves baseball and has the will to win, will pick up pieces that need to fill in. The only elephant in the room will be chase. And when his contract is done.

Awarding Kershaw and not Kemp demonstrates that the voters have absolutely no idea of how a stadium influences a player's statistical achievements.

Amaro said he wants Brown to spend a full year in AAA.

Given that Amaro seems to think players hit their prime at 35, it doesn't surprise me that he still won't give Brown a real chance. He's still got 10 years or so to develop.

The rest of the NL is going to fear the Franco-Galvis-Hernandez IF!

Victorino should have finished much higher than he did in the MVP voting. Doc as well.

I would voted: Kemp, Braun, Halladay, Upton, Fielder, Victorino, Votto, Pujols, Kershaw, Reyes.

From the previous thread:

Bullpen

"- Chris in VT - I think Derek's point is that if they would have waited until the CBA was finalized they would still have their pick, plus the 2 compensatory picks for Madson. So instead of 3 picks they only have 2 for signing early. I think that's a fair argument.

However the market for Papelbon may have been more competitive if teams didn't have to give up a 1st rounder."

This is my point in the previous post: Papelbon was one of the 8 FAs who's compensation requirements DID NOT CHANGE with the new CBA. It does not matter if he had been signed before or after the new CBA, the signing team was required to forfeit their 1st round pick either way. So please explain to me again how Rube screwed this up?

The new draft bonuses in the CBA is terrible for baseball. A lot fewer talented high school kids coming straight out, meaning they will spend 3 years getting poorer coaching and development in college than they would in the minors. And, as Keith Law points out, more talented multi-sport athletes will choose the other sports.

But hey, at least the owners get to keep more money instead of paying it to those totally undeserving teenagers. Gotta love a league where competitors agree to an industry-wide restraint on what they will pay their laborers. In the real world, of course, that is blatantly illegal.

"Papelbon was one of the 8 FAs who's compensation requirements DID NOT CHANGE with the new CBA."

Is this because he was signed prior to the new CBA or was this going to be the case no matter what? This is the part I'm not clear on.

If you are right then it's a non issue. I just haven't seen anything concrete regarding this.

And I'm not in the Amaro "screwed-up" camp. If signing Papelbon didn't require teams to forfeit their 1st rounder under the new CBA then more teams would have joined in the fray and possibly inflating his value even more.

I'm hoping for the return of Raul. He's a class act, he'd be good as a platoon player, and it would be great to seem him get what he came for. I offer no statistical reasoning. Getting sentimental in my old age. WAR is just an old Motown song. Good God, y'all. And Happy Thanksgiving.

I think the best, and most cost-effective, name on the Salisbury list is probably Josh Willingham. Personally I've always been a big Johnny Damon fan so it would be neat to see him in a Phillies uniform, but at 38 and left-handed he really doesn't fit what the team needs at this point.

Jack: No Ryan Howard on your MVP ballot?

according to Starks tweet earlier today, Phillies wouldn't be giving up the pick if they waited. Seems though that no one really knows for sure at the moment.

Yeah, Willingham would be nice. Coming off a big year for him, so wouldn't be cheap.

BAP: He might crack the top 10 Most Valuable Phillie ballot. Maybe.

Isn't Left-handed exactly what the Phillies need at this point? Mayberry, Francisco and Wigginton are all righties. A left-handed OF/bench-hitter seems to be the kind of guy they'll be looking for. And 38 is right about the median age for this team, so that shouldn't be a problem.

"The philles are in a really good position if, and I mean if. Some of the prospects they have in A AA, and AAA really pan out. Galvis at short. Cesar at second. Valle behind the dish. And Franco at third."

You do realize that Freddie Galvis has a .613 OPS in 2,179 career minor league PAs; that Cesar Hernandez, upon being bumped up to high A last year, responded with a .639 OPS; that Sebastian Valle is an offense-oriented catcher who hit all of 5 homeruns with a .312 OBP last year; that uber-prospect Maikel Franco hit .247/.318/.360 last year; that, save for Galvis, not a one of these guys has ever played a single game above Class A; that every team in the majors has attractive looking prospects in the low minors and very few of them ever make it to the show, let alone become starters; and that the only reason most of these guys even show up on the Phillies Top 20 prospects list is because SOMEONE has to be in the top 20 and everyone who's anyone in the Phillies' minor league system has already been traded away?

Did I cover all the relevant points?

So far, the addition of Wiggington and Thome strikes me as underwhelming to say the least. How many ABs will these so-called bench players actually get? Then there is the decision to bring the horrid Schneider back. But worst yet is the clear signal the Wiggington signing sends, that the much needed upgrade at 3B won't happen and we will get another putrid year from Polanco. This offense was very erratic during the season and proved to be their undoing in the post season. Thirdbase remains their number one priority. So far, I have seen nothing encouraging in Amaro's off-season moves.

I know today feels like friday because of Thanksgiving tomorrow, but today is Wednesday, right?

bap, they're all future HOF all-star players. How dare you suggest otherwise.

Agree with Jack: this missing outfielder must be left-handed, since he'll be sharing time with Mayberry. That eliminates Willingham.

Kubel & DeJesus are the most viable candidates. The others are all uninspiring, although I could totally see RAJ signing a guy like Johnny Damon on a 1-year deal.

Jack: I guess overall yeah the Philies are more right-handed than I thought. The age thing still holds. Although Damon would be a nice bat to have off the bench along with Thome and Wiggy. We'd actually have a pretty dangerous bench to face bullpens late in games with guys that can hit for power and can swipe a bag.

I was excited as anyone when Brown came up for cameos in 2010 and showed up in ST 2011 with the RF job to lose. Turns out he truly does need more time to learn outfield fundamentals. He's not going to be able to learn sitting on the bench or competing for time in left with a more seasoned, defensively plus player like Mayberry. Phils should make a commitment to his long-term viability as a starter and give him until the ASB to learn to play left, take better routes to balls in the gaps, hit cut-off men, etc. High leverage errors in the field will not help his confidence. I'd LOVE to get young with Brown right now, but Phils need to give him more time. Would rather see Kubel or Ibanez back on a cheap 1-year deal, but Kubel might warrant more than that--why commit to more than that if you believe Brown will be a full-timer? My prediction: Maybanez will be resurrected for one more year, and if Raul's totally cooked after a few months, you cut ties and bring up Brown to platoon.

I understand that Brown hasn't convinced people he's ready, and I do think there are plenty of options out there that would probably be preferable to Dom.

What I don't get is people thinking that Raul Ibanez is one of them.

Hitman: There's only one decent 3B available this off-season and he's going to get grossly overpaid and we still need a SS. Ramirez will suck after getting his $$, mark my words. So leaving that terrible decision out of the equation, what FA 3B would you like to sign?

Sure, Ibanez decisively proved he was completely cooked in 2011. We should DEFINITELY bring him back for another year.


Are you freaking kidding me?!?

As much as I'd like to see Matsui on my favorite team, he was only really valuable in, what, two months out of the year in '11? He murdered everything for a time after the All-Star break. But he's not constant and is just getting slower every year--not a good choice for the field if that's what the goal is. Otherwise, that's a good point with Willingham's handedness. Save the money and go with Brown for the best long-term investment, I say.

Jack: you are dead on about the prospects. I follow a lot of milb and those guys are not very impressive. Galvis has one good season and all of a sudden everyone thinks he can replace Rollins. I really don't see it. You are better off with Valdez at SS.

Galvis is the next Ozzie Smith.

There's no way that his one decent season is a fluke. That sort of thing doesnt happen around here:

Brad Harmon
Jason Donald
etc
etc
etc
etc
etc
etc

I don't see any of those prospects being game changes. Only Valle projects to be something other than average at best in the majors, and he's still a long way away.

Galvis will find a home in the majors because of his glove, but his bat is far from certain.

Jason isn't sold on 42 year old, bad backed Thome being the savior? But I was assured that this was a great move by all the cognoscenti on BL. Lambasted for suggesting that he won't be special anymore.

I actually disagree with Jason. He'll fill the Matt Stairs role this season. And that's not awful. But people believing that somehow he's going to strap on the first baseman's mitt and turn back the clock is typical Rube jock-sniffing delusion.

Poeple keep throwing around LF names and then adding why they would make great bench guys.

The problem is that right now the Phillies don't have a starting LF, with Mayberry playing 1B for the foreseeable future. So Ibanez/Rowand/Bernie from Weekend at Bernie's might have ½ a tool left and/or hiliarious - but that doesn't really fit the description of a starter.

The absolute best thing that could happen would be for DOM to look even passable as defensive LF in the spring and we have a cheap solution.

Robby (from the last thread): what I'd be willing to spend on J-Roll would be based on how much I'm in 'win now' mode regarding this current group of players. Since, if I were Rube, I'd be 100% in 'win now' mode, I'd look at the monetary difference between Furcal and Rollins and think that the difference in what I'd be paying the two would probably pale in comparison to the difference of production I'd get out of them. So I'd give him the money. The bigger question is how many years do you give him.

***Galvis will find a home in the majors because of his glove, but his bat is far from certain. ***

Is upside is likely somewhere between Adam Everett and John McDonald. The question becomes "Is he more of an Adam Everett" or "More of a John McDonald". The former is a passable starter who bats 8th and survives on his glove. The latter is a nice Wilson Valdez level utility guy that provides a nice cheap bench piece for several years.


On Thome: I think he's a great move to solidify the bench with a very good LH power slugger who is still very effective. Offensively, his numbers were better than our $25 million 1B last year. That he can come off the bench once a week is enormous. He's also a very legit DH for interleague. In the right role, he could give us 200 very valuable ABs.

Jack: Last year you said the Phils shouldn't acquire an insurance policy for Dom Brown, that given his stellar stats in AA ball there was little chance that he wouldn't be able to handle the RF job everyday.

Somewhere between your -- now discredited -- opinion and Rube's opinion that he needs a full year in Triple A, lies the truth.

JW: "Just think the Phils need to inject some youth into the lineup. I'd prefer to gamble on youth at a position like left."

Suggested BL poster name: The Youth Injection

aksmith: "But people believing that somehow (Thome)'s going to strap on the first baseman's mitt and turn back the clock is typical Rube jock-sniffing delusion."

I would say it's closer to Thome jock-sniffing delusion. He's a popular player, a great guy, and it's very easy to root for him. Not sure what Amaro has to do with it.

lorecore - as i said earlier, the plan may very well be to use Wiggy at 1B until Howard is ready. that put Mayberry in left where his defense is borderline elite.

In all the discussions on BL this winter, the most important topic hasn't really been discussed. How are Chase Utley's knees? That's what will determine a lot of next season's success and we probably will not know until we see the presence of absence of a wheel chair at second base during Spring training.

Following that, shortstop is the next biggest problem, with left field and third base and the bullpen following in that order. I'm assuming Mayberry will get most of the starts at first base for however long Howard is out.

Did everyone see that teams will be able to add a 26th man for double headers in the new CBA? An idea that's been long overdue.

Also, regarding Thome: I haven't really seen anyone predict a "special" or "turn-back-the-clock" kind of year for him. I saw a handful of people whining about his age, and a solid majority that were happy to have him back and realized you don't need to get much out of him to make him earn his $1.25M.

I would say it's closer to Thome jock-sniffing delusion. He's a popular player, a great guy, and it's very easy to root for him. Not sure what Amaro has to do with it.

Posted by: DH Phils

Rube signed Thome. That's why it's rube jock-sniffing delusion. As I said, I think he'll be fine as long as he's limited to what he can still do. But the wild enthusiasm for the move is due to his personality rather than NEPP's reality-based assessment.

DH Phils - I saw some of that, and I also saw some who thought he could fill in at first until Howard gets back. Pure dreaming. Even once a week at first base is probably being much too optimistic.

Then there's Jason who sees bust in his future. Although, nobody was predicting that until today that I saw.

There has been very little comment along the lines of Thome being a huge difference maker in the lineup, except as a bench upgrade/Gload upgrade, and as a DH in interleague play. Otherwise, it is just a made up thing.

Anyone for Alex Gonzalez as a fallback if J-Roll isn't signed? He's an average defender, has some pop with no ability to take a walk..He made 2.5 million last yr..

Robby: I don't know, that sub-.300 obp is pretty putrid

Conshy Matt: Even without adjusting for playing half his games in Colorado, Wigginton would have been 13th out of 15 NL 1B by OPS last season. Using his road OPS, he would have been last. He's also a butcher with the glove.

So no, I don't think Ty Wigginton is the answer at 1B while Howard is hurt.

Jack himself has said that Howard's production won't be hard to replace, so I don't see why Wiggington and/or Mayberry couldn't do the job.

Dom is in a no win situation. He either splits time in LF (which, evidently, could harm his confidence), or he spends a bunch more time getting regular playing time at AAA (which, as documented, hurts his confidence).

The Phils don't often have a high profile prospect getting this kind of exposure and polarization. Perhaps that's not a bad thing...

Polly may surprise,I think it depends on his health. He's done nothing to prove he can stay healthy for a full year.
What makes anyone think RAJ will give a lf a 1 year deal?Noone one the list would be 50 with a multi-year contract,that makes them eligible for more than 1 year.

The Thome signing was lauded because he'd be a good DH during interleague play. But I'd guess that Howard will need some time as DH during interleague, considering he'll be coming back from a pretty bad injury. Does this make Thome less valuable than originally thought?

Polly may surprise? I'd consider him starting 120 games at third a surprise.

Polly will bat .350 for the first month...and then he'll get dinged up and bat .240 with zero power the rest of the way.

Howard might not be back till the AS Break...thus, he might miss Interleague play entirely.

I really dont see Howard making a quick return from a completely torn Achilles. Its a pretty severe injury.

Jack, i'm with you, but it is a reasonable stop gap strategy to get by with Wiggy, JMJ, and Thome at 1B until Howard comes back. it's foolish to expect a top level 1B in the meantime. yes, JMJ at 1B is an option, but it creates another hole in the OF. who can be a respectible stop gap in LF? the list is uninspiring, at best.

"Jack himself has said that Howard's production won't be hard to replace, so I don't see why Wiggington and/or Mayberry couldn't do the job."

It certainly wouldn't be hard to replace, or substantially improve upon, if we had, say, $20M to $25M per year to spend on the replacement. But, since we're forced to replace him on a very limited budget, then, yes, his production will be hard to replace. Nonetheless, I'll go out on a limb and predict that many a Beerleaguer poster will be absolutely dumbfounded at how little our offense suffers in Howard's absence.

Thats y I said in two to three years IF they pan out. I didn't say they would def be up. Ss, 2nd and catcher are all in MLB top ten minor league rankings per position. And the third basemen has tremendous upside. He is only 19. And also with this past years draft. Maybe a few will pan out. They all can't be harpers. Take time to develop these guys. Rollins was only the young one that was called up. Chase and Howard were how old???????


Did I cover all the relevant points?

Posted by: bay_area_phan

Nope. You forgot to say that by the time Cesar and Franco are ready for AAA they will probably be passed on the organizational depth chart by guys the Phils drafted this year in their "all infield all the time" draft class.

"Thats y I said in two to three years IF they pan out."

Every team in baseball could make the same statement.

This team is very, very good. I think we forget that they have smaller question marks than any other team (as soon as they re-sign Jimmy) in the NL. They have won the most games in baseball the last two years despite many injuries. This year will be the same story: Excellent pitching and a slightly above average offense wins the division.

I'd prefer they not sign any of these mediocre bats at a premium simply because we have the money. Rube should wait to see how the season plays out and trade for a bat when it's obvious we need one. He has much better success when trading for contributors as opposed to signing them as FA's.

I'd far rather work with Dom than bring back Rowand. As for Thome, I don't recall many (if any) posts that lauded him as some kind of final solution.

But he seems to me to add something the Phils were missing last year - a bat off the bench with enough power to make opposing managers at least think ahead before making relief pitching changes. Matt Stairs filled this role previously to an extent at about 40 years old. I think Thome is capable of doing so at about 41 years. If he can add a few innings from time to time at first, a position that will be in flux this year, all the better.

We offered raul arb. Is that a surprise? What will he get if he accepts?

Doesn't Ibanez almost have to accept arbitration? Would any other team even offer him a major league deal?

Murphy thinks they have an arrangement that raul will decline it so we get the draft pick. Nice of him.

Yes

Rube has a purely planned draft strategy. Genius at work.

Do we get a pick if Raul is offered a minor league deal?

There HAS to be a pre-arranged agreement with him...otherwise, offering him arb is ludicrous.

Add Ibanez, throw Jimmy's "sleazy" agent into the mix, and we've got ourselves a few more logs, or coals or whatever, tossed into the hot stove.

So as of now Ibanez, Madson, and Rollins are being offered arbitration.

No decision announced yet on lidge or Oswalt.

What could Lidge and Oswalt expect in an arbitration case?

They had to offer Madson 12 mil minimum for his arbitration number to get compensation. I could definitely see Madson accepting and putting the Phils in a bind. He could take a chance on one year at 12 million with the opportunity to be a free agent again next year when there won't be so many closers on the market. Then I guess we'd find out if the Phillies do have a budget or not.

I highly doubt he'd accept it. Someone will throw nice $ at him this year.


I want the draft pick, but having Madson-Paplebon for 1 year would be a nice fantasy.

Wouldn't we just trade him if he accepted? Or can players offered arbitration not be traded?

I'm sure Madson on a 1 year, $12 million deal would fetch a decent offer.

Yeah, he'd probably take a multi-year offer if it was close. Like the 4 year 44 mil the Phils supposedly offered. But if the best offer he got was something like 3/30 or so, I could definitely see him accepting arb. There aren't many teams who are going to pay a closer what the Yanks and Phils do. Even the Red Sox didn't make an offer to Papelbon and they don't really think Bard can do the job.

Remember when Maddux accepted and screwed the Braves budget...then we got Kevin Milwood for Johnny Estrada? That was pretty nice.

I think there used to be a date they couldn't be traded before. Don't know if it made it to the new CBA.

NEPP - Yeah, I remember that. And remember when the Phillies hated Millwood and he hated them and the fans back? And then they Phillies got cute and decided to offer him arbitration assuming he'd leave and they'd get a pick? And then he accepted and they had to give him 11 million dollars the next season?

The Braves got screwed and kept Maddux. The Phillies got screwed and kept Millwood. Doesn't seem quite fair, does it?

Oh yeah...wasnt it June 1st under the old CBA? That's sounds right to me.

June 1 sounds about right.

I would to see Dom Brown spend another year at AAA in Arkansas or someplace like that. The dude will never be an OF starter here.

Kevin Milwood has made $88.6 million in his career.

Ridiculous.

My favorite part of that Millwood accepting mess was when he tossed his glove into the stands after his "last game" and then suggested it was a gift for a fan when he piped down.

And that's why Kevin Millwood will someday be on the Phillies' wall of fame - Evil Twin Version.

Dom Brown needs to make a soul deal with the Evil One in the off-season. He will change his name to Demonic Brown. He will hit .350 with a .950 slugging average. His fielding will be superb and he will lead the league in assists. He'll win the ROY and MVP awards, leading the Phils to the next WS title.

I can dream, can't I?

That could definitely happen...if we're talking Reading Phillies.

David Murphy confirmed the "gentleman's agreement" on DNL between Raul and Rube. Raul WILL NOT accept arbitration.

Whoa, the Phillies offered Raul arbitration!! They must know he won't accept and they can get a decent draft pick, right? If he accepts what do salary range per year do you think he would fall into?

Sorry, didn't look before I leaped. Saw it posted a few times above.

Chris - I believe that the change in compensation would have applied to all relievers as a category, including Papelbon. The reason I say that is that Madson had the highest Elias rating among relievers, not Papelbon. Since the Elias rating system still applies this off-season, if one reliever were to be excluded from the rule changes, it would have been Madson.

what about johnny damon is he cooked or would her be a nice platoon in left

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