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Thursday, November 24, 2011

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My prediction concerning the prospects involved. There might be value but overall they will be mostly busts sans Santana. He might have a couple good years.

The good thing is they will be in AL. But I doubt if any of these amount to anything. That's what others say about prospects.

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like what BA was saying about Dom Brown a year ago.

Looks like posters got their crystal ball gift early this year.

Santana could end up being a bust, but the fact he was the PTBNL was a little shocking, using the term loosely.

(Drinks)

I think Singleton will be a good ballplayer, potentially in the mold of, say, a right-handed Billy Butler. I wouldn't put money on any of the others to have distinguished major league careers.

Okay, I am cooking now and probably eating a few hours, Rube, I'd like to see a quality shortstop, a solid bullpen guy and either a quick footed, decent batting average right handed OF or another super utility-type signed by tomorrow.

Get on it, bro.

Luckily, the Phillies might be able to sign on Ed Wade soon with the Astros new ownership.

"Hmmm. Sounds a lot like what BA was saying about Dom Brown a year ago."

And now Dom Brown, major league-average hitter at 23, is out of baseball. Alas.

We need a "Where will Raul and Lil Roy be going?"
thread/poll.

Phils offered Raul arbitration. Looks like someone had a nice little handshake prior to making that decision

Maybe its because I'm not a millionaire already, but I would totally backstab a team in a player like Ibanez's case.

Yea sure...I wont accept your offer and get paid around $10M based purely on my service time and career numbers, instead of lucky to make $2M somewhere else...

My very first agent advised me “Shoot whatever you want; it’s what you’ll do best.” Back when I was naïve and idealistic this approach produced many arty pictures that couldn’t possibly have sold but enough useful ones that clicked to keep me trying and growing.

Collussion anyone?

I was shocked that Santana was a PTBNL. I wasnt upset we traded him but I was really surprised he was thrown into a deal like that. His upside, while it being a slim, slim chance of him achieving it, is really high.

I think we'll miss Singleton's bat in a few years but Pence was a trade that needed to be made.


So...Yonder Alonzo is available via trade for starting pitching. I know its crazy but would anyone consider a Cole Hamels/Yonder Alonzo trade with Alonzo going into LF? With the $15-18 million we'd save by not paying Hamels, we could probably get another SP AND sign another piece like Aramis Ramirez...while getting one of the best rookie hitters in baseball.

Overall, I'm with bap on the guys we gave up to Houston. Yeah, some of them have a shot at becoming decent but Singleton is the only one that is likely even above average. I'd say his power ceiling is a bit higher than Butler's though...with the same level of contact/on-base skills.

"Maybe its because I'm not a millionaire already, but I would totally backstab a team in a player like Ibanez's case."

Is this limited to your hypothetical career in baseball or, are you generally lacking in basic integrity?

I'm not sure there's a source for this 'handshake deal' but, it's the only explanation that makes sense. My question is what does Ibanez get in return?

Happy Thanksgiving BL. Sorry for the late notice, but hopefully everyone has a good day. And I further hope no one is subjected to the undue horror that is "Black Friday" shopping.

Ish,
Hope you had a decent one. I hope you get home safe by New Years at the latest.

I like that the Phils are scouting Soler. I cannot wait to see the Soler Power headlines on the DN as he homers in the 2015 WFS.

Every off-season one or two guys make agreements with their teams not to accept arb, so the team can get a draft pick. It's neither rare nor unusual and, as several posters here have noted, it is the only rational explanation for offering arb to Raul.

One thing that you always see on BL: Prospects who are praised to the skies by posters here suddenly become very flawed when dealt to other teams.

Villars is "the toolsiest shortstop in the minors"?

I thought Galvis was "the toolsiest shortstop in the minors."

My opinion? Neither will have a career as successful as Ronny Cedeno.

Hugh Mulcahy - maybe it's his way of saying thanks for the last contact to the Phils, since everyone ever is in agreement that he's the nicest guy in baseball?

Not sure I've ever heard Galvis referred to as "toolsy". Tools are what he needs.

Bunt at least once a game is the tool that replaces hit for power.

Hor-hay Soh-lehr is a good name.

clout - Don't understand why Villar intrigues scouts. He is a below average/poor defender at SS, only showed power for the first time this past year, and has pretty poor discipline which really hasn't improved that much in 3 years in the minors.

Yeah he has speed and maybe a little pop but he's a below average/poor defender at SS & has had poor plate discipline against pitchers who don't have good consistent off speed stuff.

Maybe Villar shows enough improvement this year at 21 at AA but he strikes me a guy who at best sees marginal time at the MLB level.

Galvis has a better chance to stick at the MLB level at least as a backup for a few seasons simply because of his defense.

Speaking of toolsy Phils prospects:

Imagine that Hewitt and Collier will both likely open the season at Clearwater in what is basically a 'make or break' season for both.

Collier will likely open the season not playing-wasn't he suspended for 50 games.

I think Hewitt's already gone passed his make or break season.

New slotting system for the draft pretty much seems like it is going to be a disaster overall for baseball with a classic case of 'unintended consequences.'

Basically Selig tried to ensure competitiveness in the draft (and really to help owners save dollars because that what it was really about) but it the end all it will do is diminish the American baseball talent pool even further as it encourages kids to avoid the draft & play baseball in college instead and for good multi-sport athletes to choose another sport over baseball.

Not one of the smarter things in the new collective bargaining agreement (which generally has more to like than not to like).

BB - Didn't even realize that about Collier. Yeah Hewitt was 22 last year at Lakewood.

MG: Totally agree with your assessment on Villars/Galvis.

How old is Galvis? Shouldn't he be retiring soon?

I haven't read the new draft regs. But wouldn't hard slotting violate anti-trust laws? Someone like Boras will take MLB to court when one of his guys gets drafted late the second round, say, and wants top draft pick money.

While baseball's exemption from antitrust law is generally well established, lower courts have struggled to define the boundaries of the exemption following the Supreme Court's 1972 decision in Flood v. Kuhn. As detailed in my article, the majority of courts considering the exemption's scope post-Flood have simply held that the "business of baseball" is exempt from antitrust law without providing any further guidance regarding which specific activities are within the exempted business. In contrast, some courts -- most notably the court in Piazza v. Major League Baseball, 831 F. Supp. 420, 436 (E.D. Pa. 1993) -- have adopted an extremely narrow view of the exemption, limiting it simply to MLB's historic reserve clause, the only restraint at issue in Flood. Finally, two courts -- Postema v. National League of Professional Baseball Clubs, 799 F.Supp. 1475 (S.D.N.Y.1992) and Henderson Broadcasting Corp. v. Houston Sports Assoc., Inc., 541 F.Supp. 263 (S.D.Tex. 1982) -- have taken a different approach by limiting the baseball exemption to only the sport's "unique characteristic and needs," based on a passage in the Flood majority opinion

http://sports-law.blogspot.com/2010/03/scope-of-mlbs-antitrust-exemption.html

"One thing that you always see on BL: Prospects who are praised to the skies by posters here suddenly become very flawed when dealt to other teams."

And sometimes the opposite happens. The only time I ever heard Jonathan Villar's name mentioned while he was a Phillie was when Phuture Phillies did game reviews & noted that he made his 870th error of the season. Then, the moment we traded him, he became a guy with great defensive tools who was still young enough to learn consistency.

I haven't followed the terms of the new CBA but, if it created true hard slotting, it will have the effect of radically altering the Phillies' approach to the draft. On the one hand, they might do better in the 1st round since they'll no longer be concerned about drafting someone who will accept slot money. On the other hand, they will no longer be able to bust slot in the later rounds to get players with early round talent but college commitments -- a strategy with which they've had some success.

On balance, I don't know if hard slotting would help or hurt them, but it will certainly change things. Hopefully, it will induce them to change their "tools oriented" approach to early round draft picks. If they stick with that philosophy, but lose the ability to bust slot in later rounds, they will likely do worse under the new system than they did under the old one.

I think -- and I'm no expert at all -- a court would "overturning" or in the least Cardozp-ing precedent to overturn the CBA.

But the cap on amateur player earnings looks like collusion to me. Just not sure it matters.

I'd think the new CBA would benefit teams with superior scouting and hinder teams that "busted slot" to get well-known talent later in the draft. That is especially true for smaller market, big draft money teams like the Pirates and Royals (who can't use draft money saved in the free agent market the way the Yankees can -- it just costs much more to bring in that kind of talent).

The Phils found some good talent in later rounds by busting slot a bit, but they also have an excellent scouting department. The Phils played both of these drafting games well, IMO, and their future success under the new CBA will depend on their ability to keep this up.

Teams will probably have to follow the Braves model of drafting more than any other. I'm not sure they ever spent like the Red Sox or Yankees, but their scouting has been second to none.

From Brookover's Inquirer column today

"It's refreshing that guidelines have been put in place to limit the spending on draft picks and international signings, although the top picks still will have a net worth that sets them up for life before they ever prove their worth.

Low-revenue/small-market teams also will get a chance to make more draft selections, another idea that could help competitive balance, although teams such as Tampa Bay have proved that front-office competence is as important as any of baseball's "help-the-little-guy" rules.

There have been some arguments that high school athletes who are two-sport stars, such as the Phillies' Domonic Brown, might choose football over baseball because of the changes, but that's not likely. Baseball still will offer substantial bonuses, guaranteed contracts, and superior longevity to the players who make it to the big leagues, so deciding between the two sports should remain easy."

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20111125_Inside_the_Phillies__More_positives_than_negatives_to_baseball_s_new_labor_deal.html#ixzz1ejzT0MKi
Watch sports videos you won't find anywhere else

Curious to see if it plays out as some have advocated where it discourages talented high school players (especially prep players) from choosing baseball or it unfolds as Brookover states. Won't know for several years.

Another interesting aspect was putting the pressure and expenses onto colleges to produce the talent and not so much the low minors. Is it possible this could lead towards contraction in the minors? Considering in a few years most of the draftees will be mostly juniors and senior coming out of college. Might take 3-4 years for all of this to play out considering the hard slotting will make high school prospects think extra hard about how much more valuable that scholarship will be. Depending on the school of course.

The saddest thing is that they put all their cards into Dom Brown, and he will NEVER be a quality MLB player. I think we need to enjoy this run and the Phils should pull all the stops out to win 1 or 2 more World Series. After this core is done we are back to rebuilding big time! We realistically have 3-4 more years at most of high level play left in this group.

How is it any different than the NBA or NFL's draft systems with similar monetary restrictions? Neither of them has been struck down and this wont either.

I'm already pissed about the 2017 season. Feels like a loss.

Greg- for real?

different than the NBA or NFL's

I'll say this again- Can we refrain from writing the eulogy on Dom Brown's career?

The guy is 24 years old and while he did struggle at times offensively he was hitting pretty well in July before they acquired Pence.

He needs some work defensively but if he can even get himself close to average he will spend time in the majors. His bat will afford him that ability.

The saddest thing is that they put all their cards into Dom Brown, and he will NEVER be a quality MLB player. I think we need to enjoy this run and the Phils should pull all the stops out to win 1 or 2 more World Series. After this core is done we are back to rebuilding big time! We realistically have 3-4 more years at most of high level play left in this group.

Posted by: Greg

????? Pass that bong!

Watched earlier this mornIng on MLB network. The 1993 world series recap. It was great watching all those players, and the way that team played and fought every count. Of course the two games that we had the leads were tough. But the one thing that I really appreciated was the fact that the team would walk, bunt, and steal. ESP when Dave hollins, and Jim E put down beautiful bunts for base hits

MG: I just skimmed that Jonah Keri article, but it seemed to agree with Dave Cameron's article on the CBA, which I do not agree with at all.

If the Pirates method of spending big on the draft under the old CBA was actually a market inefficiency, that would have become apparent, and the big market teams would have started spending more than the Pirates on the draft.

Under the new CBA, teams with top picks will be able to draft the best player available, without worrying as much about signability. I do not see how that does anything but help bad teams.

DH Phils - It hurts a team like the Pirates because they will never remotely be able to spend what the Yanks or Red Sox do at the MLB level. However, the Pirates are able to outspend the Yanks/Red Sox at relatively modest levels in the draft & on international development if they so choose right now. The potential competitive advantage has been taken away now.

Really though it was all about saving lots of money for the owners under the guise of 'competitiveness.'

TTI - Brown is woeful defensively and has played the outfield in professional baseball since 18 in '06. He's had 4+ seasons in the minors/majors to attempt to master playing a corner OF position with little to no improvement.

He's pathetic defensively & the Phils pretty much acknowledged it by shifting him back to play LF last year. If you do something on a regular basis with professional instruction & oversight for 4 years with no notable improvement, you stink at it. Brown just stinks defensively.

That's fine though as long as he hits because plenty of terrible defensive players have had great MLB careers in LF.

Basically, you put him in the place on the field with the least amount of chances and hope that he displays some of the offensive skills he did in the minors. If he becomes a .280/20-25 HR/20-30 SB with an .850 OPS producer in LF, you can live with his crappy defensive.

the hook - Eisenreich was one of the most sound and intelligent baseball players the Phils' have had in the past 20 or 25 years. He was a very good bunter and contact hitter. Smart on the basepaths and very sound defensively even if he didn't have the greatest range.

He was a fan favorite here not only because he put up very good numbers in a Phils' uniform over 4 years but he was a smart player who got the absolute most out of his skills. One of my favorite Phils' players since I became a fan.

MG: If there turned out to be a consistent ROI for draft spending superior to that of free agency spending, I think the big market teams would have inevitably increased their spending.

There was nothing in the previous CBA to prevent the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies from throwing $30M into the draft every year and blowing the small market teams out of the water. I figure they hadn't done that because they either haven't figured it out yet or because draft spending isn't actually that good of an investment. It wasn't because the previous system didn't let them.

MG's 12:34 post is right on the money.

DH Phils - They have but the degree of difference between what the Yanks/Red Sox spend in the draft vs. Pirates isn't anywhere near what the difference is at the MLB level. If anything, the Pirates or another lower revenue team can duplicate or even exceed if they want spending in a particular year or two for the draft vs. at the MLB level.

Pirates aren't going to suddenly be able to spend $180M or $200M next year but they could spend $15M+ on the draft/international signings.

One area they really can't compete with the bigger-spending teams is the fee for Japanese professional players which is typically quite expensive for the better players.

MG: You could've saved yourself a lot of time at 12:34 by just typing, "TTI: Agree on Brown"

Let's face it, I suck. Time to go back to my training job with American Express Financial.

any insiders read olneys column? said soething about phils offering 5 years to jimmy.

I still need time to read a book, write poem paint a picture, look at scenes and faces dear to me.

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