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Sunday, November 27, 2011


A 4 year deal with a vesting option for a 5th is OK with me...provided they over pay Jimmy a little in the first couple of years. This would make the latter years more manageable if Rub wants to trade him in the future. If the last couple of years pay Jimmy a lot of money, he'll be yet another player that nobody wants ~ ie Raul, Blanton, etc.

5 years for Rollins? The offseason just gets better & better!

Screw this. I'm going hunting.

A note regarding the current state of MLB contracts: In this era of guaranteed contracts, combined with low interest rates, it matters little how a salary is spread over the contract period.
The most significant factor for the 2012 Phils is how MLB deems to count the salary against the luxury tax calculation.

Michael Martinez is one of the worst position players we've ever had on the 25 man roster.

Yeah, pay Jimmy - it's buck season.

Winter League stats are not only meaningless, but often affirmatively misleading. However, I don't need Winter League stats to tell me that Valdez is a poor hitter, Galvis isn't ready for the big leagues, and Martinez is wretched.

Save 10M,sign Wilson Betemit and find an OF and/or bp help.

Rollins walks to get his deal somewhere else. Galvis starts every day in spring training. Ruben decides Freddy needs another 300 AAA at bats. Freddy gets called up at the All Star break. Valdez and Martinez fill in at SS until then.

The bizare combination of small market envy, the inability to fully grasp how bad the available replacements at SS are, lack of knowledge of the Phillies finances, and a pinch of race related resentment will make the Rollins signing very unpopular despite the fact that a 5 year deal for Rollins is more likley to work out for the Phillies than a 5 year deal for Cliff Lee.

I don't agree, JW, with your supposition that the farm infielders have overtaken the outfielders as being overrated. Which of us readers/posters and so-called experts in the field have anointed the current crop of infielders in the system as being worthy heirs to the stars manning the Phillies roster? Silence, I hear.

I have no illusions about the dearth of infield talent in the minors and am very concerned for the future. I hope MM is an early cut in spring training, but my suspicion is that Amaro will be loathe to letting him go, because of his Rule V draft status (see Herndon). He is a waste of roster space. Sure, for about a three week period in a roughly 26-week season he was solid, but, overall, not worthy of being a major leaguer.

I could accept Valdez for another year. Galvis needs much more grooming as a hitter and that's all there is.

Sign Rollins for semi long-term and check that one off the list of to-do's

The Phils sign Jimmy Rollins, even to a ridiculous contract, it would hardly be the worst move the team ever made. If the Phillies are truly in "win now" mode the move to make is Reyes or Rollins, unless they have a crazy trade in the works. One thing they cannot do is march to Opening Day with the folks mentioned in the post.

If anyone was rating Carlos Rivero that high, they're not someone to pay attention to. Cesar Hernandez is young enough and raw enough to keep an eye on, but not rely on until he proves he has value.

I think Jimmy will walk and when Galvis demonstrates his (in an ideal world only temporary but more likely permanent) lack of aptitude for MLB pitching, he'll pull a just before the deadline trade involving whomever are the top three players in the farm system.

Book it.

Its either going to be JRoll or Furcal. Been that way since the start of the offseason. I am sure that Amaro hasn't given some serious thought to trying to sign Reyes instead but the math just doesn't add up if he is going to get $18-$20M a year.

Not that I would ever want Mini Mart longterm anywhere, but seriously, one of the worst position players on the Phillies ever? I consider him comparable with Tomas Perez or KJ playing daily (I mean KJ played first, a power position). Todd Zeile played here. I cannot even remember the scrubs even further back.

"and a pinch of race related resentment "

Will Schweitzer, is that you? It's not racist or irrational to hope fervently that Rollins doesn't pry a five-year deal out of Amaro. Adding one more good bat is still a pressing need for this team, and if it's a choice between a long-term commitment to Jimmy as the last move of the offseason or the acquisition of a big outfield bat and a journeyman shortstop, I'd take the latter move in a heartbeat. My biggest fear is that Rube will dawdle until Furcal--a better leadoff hitter than J-Roll, incidentally--is off the market, then either panic and give Rollins a hideous deal or try to get along with Galvis, Martinez, and Valdez till next year's trade deadline.

(Of course, we could always trade Dom Brown and Trevor May to Arizona for Stephen Drew, which would solve the SS and good bat needs--but Drew's injury would make me nervous).

If Amaro's actually considering Jimmy for 5 years, he may as well just dig a little deeper into the pockets and go for Reyes. If we truly want to be like the Yankees, giving 5 years to a declining player like Rollins would definitely put us in the same league as them.

raul: Those guys are legends compared to Martinez.

Wait til MiniMart smashes Ty W. the face with a shaving cream pie after he breaks up a 15th inning tie with a bloop hit in July pulling the team within 12 games of the Miami Marlins. Legends just waiting to be born!

AT: "(Of course, we could always trade Dom Brown and Trevor May to Arizona for Stephen Drew, which would solve the SS and good bat needs--but Drew's injury would make me nervous)."

Intriguing idea. The problem is that Drew (thru a mutual option) can become a free agent following the 2012 season. His agent is Boras and he will be considerably more expensive than J-Roll.

Here's how you can tell which posters know very little about baseball: They think you can win more games with a crappy shortstop than an excellent shortstop on a pitching-oriented team, simply by adding a power bat in LF.

MG: Furcal will be expensive ($8M per) and he's played in 100 games only once since 2007. Not sure I see the love.

FWIW, his OPS+ for the past 5 years is 97. J-Roll, who is a better fielder, has a better injury history and is a year younger, has an OPS+ of 101.

If I'm going to gamble, I'll roll the dice on J-Roll at $12M per for 3 years over Furcal at $8M per for 2 years. And yeah, they'll probably have to go 4 years plus an option.

As much as I hate the idea of adding another low OB bat to the lineup, an inexpensive alternative with less risk than Furcal might be Alex Gonzalez. You could get him for 2 years at $3M per.

Bottom line: As GoBaystars eloquently noted in the previous thread, there really is no good alternative to J-Roll.

I would say sign J-roll to six years if he signs a contract restricting him from swinging for the fences or hitting leadoff guaranteed.

clout - Furcal is the 'moderate' option because at most he gets 2 years. I would be really surprised if JRoll doesn't at least 4 yrs guaranteed.

I would rather see JRoll back but it depends on what he is making. He is the better player though & less of a health risk. Furcal at 2 yrs/$8M annually vs. JRoll at 4 yrs/$14M annually though is a tough trade-off longer-term.

One of them is going to be the Phils' starting SS next year. If the Phils had a little more financial flexibility next year, I have no doubt Amaro would be head charging to sign Reyes. What I don't understand and haven't from the start of the offseason is the insistence Amaro will turn to Galvis/Valdez as an option next year.

Its not. At worst, he would sign an Alex Gonzalez if everything else fell through.

A team built on pitching and defense needs a solid, reliable, experienced, Rollins type player at SS, and the best Rollins type player available this year is JRoll.

Rollins can move to 3B for the last 3 years (half) of his contract and swing for the fences on every AB.

I am getting a sports hernia from these discussions.

I can see the argument to keep Jroll. But if it means to not be able to sign Cole to an extension, and hunter. Then I would be fine with the latter options. Just give me a glove, if they are still going to sign a OF or another bat. Still we need an update on Howard to see what pc we need to fill. If John plays first then go for outfield. I can see why they wanted Sizemore for left. Swisher would be perfect piece for this team at the present moment. I just don't want to get caught with slop if all pieces fall.

"Beer nuts: Shortstops doing squat in winter ball"

Plus, the Eagles are keeping the suck firmly set at 11.

I am perfectly fine with JRoll @ 5 years if he plays 3B for at least 2 of them.

clout (or whomever): I recognize the importance of Jimmy Rollins in our lineup and yes, more important than that, in our infield. However, let's just assume the Phillies' FO will not exceed the luxury tax -- how do you justify 5 yrs./$60mm (what I bet Rollins is asking and will get) over locking up Cole Hamels? Bye, bye Jimmy. I'll take Cole and gamble on Freddy Galvis' glove.

On another unrelated note, could the mighty, mighty Philadelphia Phillies ever become as arrogant and stupid as the Beagles football team from the same city? What a flippin’ train wreck, those Eagles.

"They think you can win more games with a crappy shortstop than an excellent shortstop on a pitching-oriented team, simply by adding a power bat in LF"

I would much rather have the excellent shortstop than the power bat in LF. However, unless you're alluding to Jose Reyes, I have absolutely no idea which excellent free agent shortstop you're talking about.

The Eagles are only arrogant because they haven't won. If the Phillies hadn't won they'd be a stubborn, backward thinking organization. If the Eagles had won they'd be an efficient machine with little time for nostolgia and public opinion.

Michael Martinez is one of the worst position players we've ever had on the 25 man roster.

Posted by: NEPP"

Ummmm,NEPP, not to be argumentative but.."one of"?

Clout: obviously, we need a good fielding shortstop, and I admit that Furcal is a defensive dropoff from Rollins (I still remember his welcome errors in the 2008 NLCS). But considering that Howard will probably be out for most of the season, and that the Phillie (Raul) who was second to him in HRs is not on the team anymore, I'd say we do need another power hitter (I'd love to get one who doesn't die when faced with left-handed pitching in the playoffs while we're at it).

Ideally, Utley will return to top form, Pence and Vic will have another great year, and Mayberry will put up amazing numbers. But the team shouldn't gamble on any of those scenarios; we need someone (Cuddyer? Willingham?) as insurance.

The defensive dropoff between Rollins and Furcal doesn't seem enough to justify sacrificing a power bat (or, as others have pointed out, a Hamels extension) for the sake of overpaying Jimmy. If we're just talking defense, by the way, I could put up with Valdez as everyday SS and eighth-hole bat so long as the offense is upgraded in other departments; I'd call him a better fielder than Furcal.

Bottom line: Rube (for once) was right when he said losing Jimmy would be a difficulty, but not an insurmountable one. I just hope he remembers that and doesn't go into panic mode.

Please tell me exactly who, first name and last name, the power bat the Phillies will be able to acquire if they sign Furcal instead of Rollins?

Holy bad syntx!

Please tell me exactly who, first name and last name, is the power bat that the Phillies will be able to acquire if they sign Furcal instead of Rollins?

slightly less clumbsy

Late news breaking! This just in!
Ed Wade fired as Astros GM.

Don't they realize he restocked their entire system with Phillie blue chippers? What are they thinking?
Perhaps they need to think more AL-headed?
Maybe they will sign a new manager who trades with the Phils some more to pick up the rest of the poor fielding future DHs of America?

gobay: Personally, I don't think we need a left-fielder. I think we need a 3rd baseman. And, for the same money, I'd rather have Aramis Ramirez than Jimmy Rollins. Although I do have concerns about how good Ramirez will be 2 or 3 years from now, I have the exact same concerns with Rollins -- and with considerably greater justification.

BAP - couldn't agree more, ramirez would look mighty good in that lineup. especially considering you could use polanco as a super sub to keep everyone healthy.

J-Roll 5 years no.

BAP - couldn't agree more, ramirez would look mighty good in that lineup. especially considering you could use polanco as a super sub to keep everyone healthy.

Other than Reyes, there is no alternative to J-Roll. here is no help in the Minors...anywhere. Not SS,3B,1B,OF. It is what it is. I said weeks ago Galvis wasn't ready. Amaro knows this, so does Jimmy, but right now, Rube won't cave to Jimmy's 5 years demand. So we wait and see how the game plays out.

I also wondering what the odds are that Wade lands a job woth the Phils?

Why is there this notion that Polanco could be a 'super sub' keeping everyone healthy when he himself can't stay healthy?

BAP's bashing of his 'favorite Phillie' Rollins continues.

Why you're not allowed to admit that Rollins is an excellent shortstop on BL now is beyond me. He is still is a top producer at his position with excellent defense. I don't understand why it's taboo to admit that there would be a huge drop-off if Rube had listened to certain BL posters and signed Jamey Carroll or traded for Jason Bartlett. There simply are no better options at this point, and the drop-off to anyone else is enormous. Adding Aramis Ramirez wouldn't change that (and frankly, pretending that Rube will sign Aramis and pay Polanco 10+ million to ride the bench is ridiculous to begin with).

My best guess is that Rollins will be here at 4 yrs 40 mill w/ a 5th yr option vested at 12.5 mill.Not the ideal contract, butr a necessary compromise. 3B may have to wait till spring training or the trade deadline..

DPatrone-- Less than zero

So you think Ramirez at 3rd and Galvis/Valdez/Martinez at SS is better than Polanco at 3rd and Rollins at SS?

Not buying it.

Iceman: B/c Polanco seems to wear down fairly quickly as a starter. Therefore, it makes some sense that if he was used more sparingly, he wouldn't wear down. Who knows, but makes some sense to me.

Rollins: The idea of 5 years scares me, but like Paplebon, the last year vesting would show that he has remained healthy/hit certain numbers. Not a bad thing when you look at it. Still don't like it, but the alternatives scare me*.

*Wonder if they're looking at a trade like Jed Lowrie. Injury concerns there, but can play SS/3b, I think.

Obviously just basing this on internet rumors, but it sure doesnt sound like Jimmy has recieved any decent 5yr offers yet - so I still think the Phils can get away with a 3yr deal, with the 4th as a vesting/option/etc. year

J-Roll is already on the downslide. No need to give him more then 3 years. He'll be out of baseball by year 4. Let him walk if he wants more.

The Cardinals won a world championship with Nick Punto playing a lot of 2B. Just get a SS who can catch the ball and make routine plays. You don't need 8 all-stars to win a WS.

Or trade for Hanley Ramirez.

Those are your two realistic options.

Iceman - It depends on his ability to stay on the field and healthy enough to produce. He wasn't able to do that in '09 and '10. Bounced back last year and had a solid year.

Personally, I like JRoll and would like to see him retire a Phil or player almost his entire career here. Just hate the thought of them handing him a 4 or 5-year guaranteed deal.

denny: funny that you pick the Cardinals as an example of not needing allstars everywhere, when they probably have the most position player 'all stars' in the entire NL with Yadier, Pujols, Holliday, Berkman.

Solid Logic.

My friend in Chicago says Rameriz will be a bust after he gets his big bucks.Highly unmotivated.

"So you think Ramirez at 3rd and Galvis/Valdez/Martinez at SS is better than Polanco at 3rd and Rollins at SS?"

I don't see a huge difference between Polanco & Valdez. So you can have Valdez at SS with Ramirez playing 3rd, or you can have a de facto Valdez playing 3rd, with Rollins at SS. For the same money, I'd choose the latter.

Iceman: Rollins ain't an "excellent shortstop" anymore -- not even defensively. He's about a 60th percentile defensive shortstop and fading fast. Offensively, he had his best season in 3 years and still ranked right in the middle among 23 qualified shortstops. Overall, that makes him a moderately above average shortstop, who probably won't be that for much longer. And, yeah, he has been my favorite Phillie over the last decade. But facts are facts. A 4-year deal to Rollins would be a huge stretch. A 5-year deal would qualify RAJ for the loony bin.

er . . . in my 10:32 post, I meant I'd choose the former, not the latter.

Report from NY Post says Phils reached out to Billy Wagner over the winterto see if he "had an itch" to un-retire.. He said no thanks.. I'm kinda glad he didn't scratch THAT itch.. I really dislike Billy Wags..Stay Home..

I'm not really dying to sign Aramis Ramirez, who has a high chance of becoming dead money by year 3, if not sooner. I'm just saying: if the plan is to go all-in for 2012, Ramirez makes more sense than Rollins (assuming about the same cost). On the other hand, if the plan is to balance our 2012 needs against the need for longer-term financial flexibility, then I wouldn't sign either one of them for more than 3 years.

bap: "I don't see a huge difference between Polanco & Valdez."

You dont see so well.

Everybody tends to get overpayed and unmotivated a few years into playing in Chicago. Just hope Phila doesn't become Chicago.

If we are to believe the Wagner story, is it a little odd they followed that by giving a huge contract to a closer? Would seem they were kicking tires on Wagner b/c he'd, in theory, be a cheaper option, as far as years go.

Without making any proclamations as to their respective value or accounting for the injuries Polanco has played through, I present the following 2011 statistics:

Polanco (122 games): .277/.335/.339/.674, 85 OPS+

Valdez (99 games): .249/.294/.341/.634, 73 OPS+

The real reason Rube called Wags is because he was asked by Lidge to put in a good word for him as a reference. Lidge wants the Chief Llama Birther position Wags has been advertising for in the Village Voice. Those baby llamas don't come out by themselves.

How about 523 PA for Polly vs 300 PA for Valdez, not 'games played'.

Or in other words - Polly's worst season since 2006(and including 2006) would be Valdez's career crowning achievement.

Billingsly/lorecore: I don't have the numbers handy, but I believe Polanco's OPS was around the same as Valdez's from May 1 on.

But, yeah, I overstated my case a bit. Over a full season, I would certainly expect Polanco to out-perform Valdez. But the difference may not be that great by next year and it would be somewhat offset by the fact that one guy always bats 8th & the other guy often bats 2nd.

"My friend in Chicago says Rameriz will be a bust after he gets his big bucks.Highly unmotivated."

Is there any evidence for this at all through his career?

Ramirez signed a 5-year, $73 million contract on November 12, 2006. Then in 2007 he put up this line:

35 2B, 26HR, 101RBI, .310/.366/.549 128 OPS+

Doesnt seem unmotivated to me...

Or maybe it was the year after (2008), when he went:

44 2B, 27HR, 111RBI, .289/.380/.518 126 OPS+

I don't see any indication of him not playing well after signing a contract.

And it's not a pure comparison between Polanco and Valdez, it's a comparison between the combination of Ramirez/Valdez and Polanco/Rollins - I think the choice there is pretty clear, especially when you consider you'd then have Polanco off the bench

gobaystars! - "So you think Ramirez at 3rd and Galvis/Valdez/Martinez at SS is better than Polanco at 3rd and Rollins at SS?

Not buying it."

How...curious at your reasoning.

Which lineup seems better:




I'd much rather have the first, especially considering slightly upgrading valdez to someone like alex gonzalez isn't too hard.

A healthy Polanco for the last two years has hit the crap out of the ball. They just need to keep him healthy somehow. He's played great defense when healthy or not.
I don't see how they avoid giving Jimmy 4 years becuase of the win-now position they're in and the complete lack of quality out there at SS. He's still a good player. The problem is that I can see a nice .275 OBP in years 3 and 4 of that deal. I don't know what else they can do, though. All of their alternatives would likely be looking up at a .275 OBP.

Mitch - I don't know about 'hit the crap out of the ball' - Polanco hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 since 2008; at 3B that's pretty mediocre.

Polanco = Washed Up

Is it possible to trade Blanton, Mayberry, and DeFratus or Trevor May for David Wright then make Polanco a super-utility player like the Rangers did w/ Michael Young? Just wondering what it would take to get Wright.

Circus-"When healthy" is the key point. He had a .972 OPS the first month of this season, after which he was hurting. Last year he had a .782 OPS before the break. I think he can still hit. He just needs more rest so he can stay healthy.

What would it take to get david wright? Cole Hamels my dear sir. Don't see the mets bitting on any of our "prospects".

The biggest risk to resign JRoll is his health. I would put the chances of him averaging 150+ G over his next contract at 5%.

Last year, he pulled his groin in Aug. The year before he had a severe calf strain which hampered him all year. In 2009, he played in 155 G but battled hamstring issues most of the year.

If JRoll loses his legs, you get the '09 & '10 versions which frankly isn't a very good SS especially as his range continues to decline a bit. It would be a guy you wouldn't mind paying $4-5M but certainly not $12-$14M. That's the gamble.

Personally, I would bet that JRoll would have a good chance to duplicate his numbers from last year in '12 and '13 but the last 2 years of his deal would be underwhelming. A 5th year takes you into '16 in which the Phils would be paying $14-15M for a utility infielder.

"Healthy Polanco", like "Healthy Utley", is a mythical creature. Even if Healthy Polanco could put up something like .315/.350/.430, Real-Life Polanco most likely puts up something like .280/.330/.360, which isn't very valuable offensively.

SS (last 3 years)

JRoll - .255/.316/.403 (.720 OPS) in 1589 ABs
Reyes - .306/.352/.452 (.804 OPS) in 1247 ABs
Furcal - .269/.335/.393 (.728 OPS) in 1329 ABs
A. Gonzalez - .244/.281/.397 (.678 OPS) in 1550 ABs

I would have rather seen the Phils go gangbusters after Reyes instead if JRoll really is going to get at least 4 yrs/$48-50M let alone a possible 5th year and go cheaper on the closer route.

"He had a .972 OPS the first month of this season, after which he was hurting."

And, if only he hadn't gotten injured, there can be no doubt he would have finished the season with a .972 OPS -- or at least .950.

Valdez (past 3 years):

.254/.304/.350 (.653 OPS) in 692 ABs

Gonzalez has a bit more pop but really wonder how much better (and defensively) he is at this point over Valdez.

JRoll/Reyes/Furcal are all notably superior offensive players.

BAP, your b00b comparison of Valdez = Polanco pretty much tells me what I need to know about how much to value your opinion on a player's worth.

Maybe the Phillies can hire Ed Wade to lure Wagner out of retirement.

Polanco (last 3 years):

.287/.335/.377 (.712 OPS) in 1641 ABs

Given that I think it is a lock he doesn't finish above a .700 OPS next year, there might not be much of a difference between Valdez at ~.650 OPS and Polanco at ~.680 OPS

Let's not forget that Polanco's 2010 injury didn't necessarily have anything to do with his body breaking down. He got plunked hard in the elbow and developed bone chips/spurs in there as a result. I wouldn't be surprised to see Polly put up a passable season (read: ~100 OPS+) especially if he gets some rest.

Valdez is going OPS in the .500s this year. Even his career OPS of .621 is some criminal fluke that baseball can not explain. If you are a believer that numbers have a way of averaging themselves out - then bet on him actually having a .400 OPS this year to make up for his gross overperforming of the last few seasons.

MG- so you think there would be no real drop-off if we started Valdez every game at 3rd instead of Polanco?

The myth of Wilson Valdez is growing. Now we've got him able to replace both Rollins and Polanco with absolutely no drop-off. Why people aren't offering top prospects for this guy is beyond me. Next we'll have Jack swoop in and tell us we could put Valdez at first to sub for Howard and we'd see no drop-off in production.

It's not as ridiculous as those who suggested Jim Thome could play 1st even 1 game a week.

***It's not as ridiculous as those who suggested Jim Thome could play 1st even 1 game a week. ***

Such loons as Jim Thome and Ruben Amaro...

Iceman - Offensively it depends. Defensively Valdez has a better arm but Polanco is the better defensive player.

Valdez could easily replace Utley with no drop off.

Valdez as a starter:

2011 - .261/.303/.360 in 253 ABs (.662 OPS)
2010 - .256/.301/.356 in 312 ABs (.657 OPS)
2009 - .253/.309/.347 in 75 ABs (.655 OPS)

That is basically a ~.660 OPS as a starter. Polanco is a better offensive player if he is healthy but not by that much anymore. Instead of .250-.260, he hits .280-.290 with marginally more pop.

Show me a team that has 9 men of Valdez' character and ability, and I'll show you a Championship.

Valdez could easily step in and replace Papelbon if he goes down. His relief numbers are off the charts.

***Show me a team that has 9 men of Valdez' character and ability, and I'll show you a Championship. ***

Such a team could easily dominate the Connie Mack leagues...and probably even Legion ball too.

Difference between JRoll and Polanco is that one guy is a good bet to finish with an OPS above .700 (JRoll) and the other is not (Polanco).

Maybe I am wrong, Polanco's various surgeries and the offseason enable him to rebound to his '09-'10 form (~.720 OPS).

That's the best case scenario though offensively for him. He is one of the guys I am curious to see how he looks in spring training. My bet is that he ends up somewhere between his '09-'10 and '11 numbers which puts him around .690-.700.

Puts him slightly below the NL average year at 3B (.705 OPS) but it was a down year across MLB for 3B offensive production last year. In 2009-10, it was .752.

If Polanco is their everyday 3B next year (and no reason to think he won't be), the Phils will be among the bottom 1/3 in the NL in offensive production at 3B. If he duplicates his numbers from this year, they will be in the bottom 3.

Phils are a better team with Polanco at 3B than Valdez but it isn't the chasm between say Utley and Valdez/Orr/Mini Mart the Phils endured for the first 6 weeks last year at the start of the season.

I think they should hire Ed Wade, so he and Rube can play "Bad GM/Crazy GM".

@NEPP: Let's see how Gentleman Jim's Back is holding up the first time he awkwardly attempts to dive for a hot shot and re-evaluate that.

I think i could drive a formula one racer competitively . Doesn't make me an authority of my abilities.

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