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[mikehh]

I wish the game was coming on now! I'm anxious as he'll to get this one going...

[Little Ollie]

Not sure I understand why we're celebrating before the game has started.

[Lincoln Hawkes]

That's not celebrating. That's a photo of Clifton firing an awesome-cannon at the opposition.

[Old Phan]

Valverde. trying to give the game away.

[RR]

Just Werth celebrating the direct deposit of his last 2011 paycheck from Washington. No biggie.

[NEPP]

Do the Tigers simply not want to win?

[Call Me Ishmael]

Valverde channeling his inner Stutes here

[MG]

Last thread:

We'll see about Hamels/Garcia on Tues but it goes tiresome on here where you express an opinion that the Phils aren't 'awesome' it trashed by same usual suspects.

As for Carpenter-Halladay possible in Game 5, its a total gut call/hunch. Halladay is the better pitcher.

[MG]

Good thing is the weather forecast is supposed to cooperate even though it is very overcast. Only a 10% chance of rain by game time.

[Cyclic]

Not sure why we think the pictures actually affect the outcomes of the games.

[whitey]

Can a first ballot hall of famer ever be considered overrated?

[Hugh Mulcahy]

MG - No gut calls allowed. With that said, my gut tells me there is no game 5.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

"Can a first ballot hall of famer ever be considered overrated?"

It depends on his ERA+ and his xFIP.

[Kevin]

I almost want to see the Yankees come back, just because Valverde is annoying to watch pitch. If he was any slower, the game would go in reverse.

[MG]

Hugh - I don't think so either although I do have a feeling that tonight is the series one way or another.

Sure Cards can win 3 straight possibly because they have Garcia/Carpenter going yet but it is really hard to see them winning 3 straight especially without Holliday's bat in the lineup.

[Old Phan]

Why is Valverde still in this game?

[MG]

"Not sure why we think the pictures actually affect the outcomes of the games."

Because humans constancy look to impose some rhyme/reasons on occurrences & events even if there is no pattern, the explanation is not testable through experimentation, or it strains credibility.

Hell, people would never do a lot of things if we really believed as if we were 'homo economicus' as neoclassical economists promotes.

[whitey]

MG, is your gut based on Carpenter's performance down the strecth?

[jhs]

Hugh: What about Nolan Ryan? 98.8% of the HOF vote his first year? 112 ERA+? 2.04 K/BB ratio? This guy isn't overrated?

[MG]

Not that unlikely that Valverde might end up here as the closer next year . . .

[jhs]

Sorry, Hugh - should have been attributed to whitey

[MG]

whitey - Little of that, his success vs. Phils, his success at home, and his success in the playoffs.

You can't you stats this year though to show that Carpenter is an equal to Halladay. He's not.

[Lincoln Hawkes]

Awesome tidbit from Jayson Stark's prediction article yesterday:

"Halladay, Cliff Lee, Hamels and Oswalt have made 35 career postseason starts -- the equivalent of one regular season. They've gone 20-7 with a 2.84 ERA in those starts -- against the best lineups in baseball."

Those season stats win you the Cy Young just about any given year. And we're running out that pitcher for hypothetically every single game this post-season. Good times.

[whitey]

Yeah, Nolan Ryan was overrated because we all know that ERA+ and K/BB are the only stats that matter.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

At times, Nolan Ryan was overrated. Over time, though, he stands out as one of the greatest of all time. Same goes for Carlton. Neither was a model of perfection for their entire careers. However, Carlton was consistently the best pitcher on his team and frequently the best in the league. Ryan was often not the best pitcher on his own team and, if Cy YOung voters count for anything, he was never the best pitcher in his league.

[jhs]

You know, listening to, you know, Cabrera, you know, talking about the Tigers, you know, winning, kind of makes me happy, because, you know, my girlfriend, the high school teacher and Yankees fan, hatesHATESHATES Nick Swisher because he says "you know" all the time, and she (for completely other reasons) got pissy with me and decided to spend the rest of the weekend at her home, and, you know, the Yankees lost (which, you know, we'd all enjoy here). So, you know - GO TIGERS! (Oh, BTW, she will be back but this is still fun to celebrate, you know, because I have to pretend to be happy when the Yankees win and she is in the building). HAHAHA. You know.

[jhs]

Nolan Ryan was probably the most overrated pitcher of all time. I mean, c'mon - any way you cut it, this guy does not belong in the HOF. .526 W/L record? 112 ERA+ and 1.25 WHIP? 2:1 K/BB ratio? Most walks in the history of the game? Led the league in losses once and wins never? Led the league in walks 8 times. Averaged 14-13 per 162 games. Pretty much a 2/3 starter, for a long time. This is a HOFer? As John McEnroe said, YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!

[Bake McBride was Here]

"my girlfriend, the high school teacher and Yankees fan"

You know, you might, you know, want to, you know, think about, well, you know, getting a new, you know, girlfriend. Just sayin', you know.

[jhs]

Bake: Yeah, whatever. I'm really happy I don't have to keep pretending I am rooting for the Yankees, and she doesn't have to pretend she is rooting for the Phils.

[Bake McBride was Here]

Just kidding, by the way.

[Bake McBride was Here]

D-backs meltdown underway.

[PHinBK]

Brewers looking potent...

[GBrettfan]

Just over an hour 'til game time! I hope Cliff Lee has his tilt tonight.

[RedBurb]

How can Gibson keep Zeigler in to take all this abuse? It's like he is conceding the game.

[Phlipper (reaching for my sandwich on the Ben Franklin)]

So, MG doubling-down on his ridiculous claim that Carpenter/Doc and Hamels/Garcia are a "wash."

You'd think that he'd learn from his hand-wringing about how scary the playoffs are with the "shell of his former self" Utley, Howard (the 45th best 1B in baseball, btw), wouldn't be moving better by the playoffs, how Rollins is only an average SS, etc., etc.

But I guess not.

[GBrettfan]

Brewers ARE potent, PHinBK.

[jhs]

Did anyone here really believe that the DBacks were a serious threat?

[cut_fastball]

Hey jhs. From WikiPedia:

Ryan, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, threw pitches that were regularly recorded above 100 miles per hour (160.93 km/h). Even past the age of 40, he could still bring 95 mph plus heat in games.

While his lifetime winning percentage was a relatively pedestrian .526, Ryan was an eight-time MLB All-Star, and his 5,714 career strikeouts rank first in baseball history by a significant margin.[1] He leads the runner-up, Randy Johnson, by 839 strikeouts. Similarly, Ryan's 2,795 bases on balls lead second-place Steve Carlton by 962—walking over 50% more hitters than any other pitcher in Major League history. Other than Jackie Robinson (whose number was retired by the entire MLB), Ryan is currently the only major league baseball player to have his number retired by at least 3 different teams: the Angels, Astros, and Rangers.

Ryan is the all-time leader in no-hitters with seven, three more than any other pitcher. He is tied with Bob Feller for most one-hitters, with 12. Ryan also pitched 18 two-hitters. Despite the seven no-hitters, he never threw a perfect game, nor did he ever win a Cy Young Award. Ryan is one of only 29 players in baseball history to date to have appeared in Major League baseball games in four decades.

Decaf? Just a try?

[Phlipper (reaching for my sandwich on the Ben Franklin)]

"Because humans constancy look to impose some rhyme/reasons on occurrences & events even if there is no pattern, the explanation is not testable through experimentation, or it strains credibility. "

Would that be the case when someone, based on a small sample size of a pitcher's performance against a particular team, says that it's a "wash" when that pitcher faces that team the next time, even though as revealed by career stats, one of the pitchers is far better than the other?

[MG]

Phlipper - So 1 game refutes that? Good to know.

Vic getting 3 base hits last night didn't surprise. Utley did especially the 2 doubles.

Even if when you watch him he is basically getting it done with upper-body strength alone because the full pivot on his swing isn't there.

[Heather]

Nolan Ryan is in the Hall of Fame for his strikeouts. He literally obliterated the strikeout record. The strikeout record is untouchable. 5,714? The next closest is 4,875 by Randy Johnson.

You can argue whether or not that many strikeouts is, itself, hall worthy, but don't quote his ERA+ and WHIP and W-L and omit his K record, like the latter had nothing to do with him getting in the hall.

[Heather]

Ah, I see cut fastball beat me to it.

[Little Ollie]

Nolan Ryan struck fear in the hearts of opposing batters. He was sometimes wild, but a tremendous force. Still, I remember Carlton was always the better pitcher. I am not an expert on all the stats being thrown around, but I know they're lacking in some way.

[MG]

Phlipper - Just one of several reasons I mentioned about Hamels/Garcia and yeah I acknowledged it was such a small sample size for Garcia that almost makes it meaningless. Only sample you have though.

Since we are using career stats:

Garcia xFIP career at home - 3.35
Hamels xFIP career on road - 3.49

[CJ]

In the so-called "Year of the Pitcher," there sure have been a lot of runs this postseason so far.

[jhs]

cut_fastball: Yup, Ryan had a bunch of impressive individual games. Anyone can pitch a no-no; Terry Mulholland did in 1990 and Tommy Greene did in 1991. Rick Wise did it in 1971 and even hit two home runs during that one (something that Ryan, and even the mighty Koufax, did not match). But who cares? His career was fairly unimpressive despite the no-nos.

[mal-vern]

Does anyone think the short rest will affect Carpenter?

[CJ]

Yup, Hank Aaron had a bunch of good at bats. Anyone can hit a HR. Steve Jeltz did. But who cares?

[CRD]

despite all of the hits he had, babe ruth's career was fairly unimpressive too

[CJ]

Mal-Vern: It could, but it may not. Some pitchers show negative effects in their next start after the short-rest start. Others show no effect at all.

[mal-vern]

larussa - seems almost giddy of the thought of carpenter pitching, hope we can make him eat his words

[Dickie Thong]

How come Carpenter isn't batting 8th?

[Kevin]

Zolecki via Twitter: "Game 3 of the NLDS in St. Louis will begin at 5:07 p.m. ET. Game 4, if necessary, at 6:07 p.m. ET. Game 5 at 8:37 p.m ET."

[mal-vern]

wheel's rug looks so natural..

[jhs]

So despite all the losses and the early calls to the bullpen, Nolan Ryan's career was impressive? Sure, but not HOF impressive. And, sorry, boys - don't compare this guy to Hank Aaron or Babe Ruth.

[NEPP]

Kevin, I am loving those start times.

[Kevin]

W-L record might be the single most useless "stat" in baseball.

[A-Train]

You have to clear the schedule for the Yankees.

[Kevin]

Yeah, the start times are annoying, yet totally predictable. Yay money.

[Little Ollie]

I hope the Yanks get knocked out early so maybe the Phils can get prime time.

What's the sun going be like at 4:07 and 5:07 in St. Louis?

[jhs]

Kevin: Not when you are talking about 27 seasons.

[CRD]

having more strikeouts than anyone else, ever, is very impressive

[MS69]

http://www.zazzle.com/fire_andy_times_up_tshirt-235925983761294919

Its going to get crowded on the bridges around here.

[NEPP]

Hopefully, we get to Carp early and the crowd really throws him off.

[RR]

On Carpenter, see Stark's article at espn.com. From the article:

"Since 2005, 21 pitchers have headed for the mound on short rest in the postseason. Here's how that's gone:

• Their combined ERA in those starts is 5.83.

• Their won-loss record is 5-8.

• Their teams have won only eight of those games.

Now here's the breakdown year by year.

Year GS W-L ERA
2011 1 0-1 10.80
2010 4 1-2 4.01
2009 6 2-2 6.30
2008 3 1-1 6.00
2007 2 0-2 20.77
2006 1 0-0 1.50
2005 4 1-0 4.30

That 2011 start you see above was made by C.J. Wilson the other day. He went out there in Game 1 against the Rays after a mini-start four days earlier (two IP, 38 pitches). Didn't work out so hot."

Now add in Grienke, but the Brewers look as if they've got this one, despite a subpart start.

Carpenter will have to be much better.

[conshy matt]

Cjs - sorry Nolan was doin your mom.

MG - I'll just say this. I respect your opinion but Cole is a much better pitcher than Garcia. Maybe post DL Hamels is not the same pitcher as pre DL Hamels. We'll see soon enough.

[jhs]

CRD: Less so when you also have more walks than anyone else, by nearly 1000 walks (and the second guy on the list is the guy I originally stated was overrated in the prior thread.) For example, Ryan had 2795 walks. Roger Clemens had 1580 walks. But Clemens had 4672 strikeouts, versus 5714 for Ryan. So Clemens had a 2.96/1 K/BB ratio, versus Ryan's super-pedestrian 2.04/1.

[Kevin]

No, W-L is stupid even across 27 seasons. It's completely and totally irrelevant.

[NEPP]

Short rest is and has always been a desperation move.

It rarely works out.

[jhs]

Kevin: You probably think Ryan Howard sucks too. Keep reading Fangraphs - it will make an Oakland fan out of you yet.

[CRD]

its still impressive

[Kevin]

Nice try, jhs, but I'm actually a huge Howard fan. A for effort, though.

Seriously, dude, if you can't even understand this, it's hard to take you seriously.

[PHinBK]

MLB's considering adding another wild card team but exactly how much of a viewing audience does TBS and TNT get on these early afternoon games anyway?

Shocked Selig doesn't just skip the pretenses and rule that a NY, BOS, CHI and/or LA team has to make the postseason.

[NEPP]

***Shocked Selig doesn't just skip the pretenses and rule that a NY, BOS, CHI and/or LA team has to make the postseason.***

That's ridiculous...no sport would do such a thing. Other than the BCS of course.

[jhs]

Kevin: I love Howard too. So what don't I understand? W-L doesn't mean much for 1 or 2 or 5 seasons, but if you have the big W-L numbers for 20+ seasons, you ARE good. Point me to a guy who wasn't. (Point being that Ryan had perhaps the worst WL record of any SP in the HOF. And unlike Robin Roberts (another guy with a low W/L number), Ryan did not have a huge peak).

[Little Ollie]

Didn't Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton work on four days rest each start each year post-season or not? How does Fangraphs factor that into the data?

[jhs]

Lil Ollie: Carlton started 41 games in 1972. That's part of his legend for that year. And you should ignore the BS that comes out of Fangraphs (IMO). But mostly teams had a 4.5 man rotation in the 1970s, and approaching a 5 man rotation by the 1980s.

[bay_area_phan]

I don't know about Nolan Ryan or Steve Carlton or Sandy Koufax. All I know is that, if this Brewers game goes one millisecond past the starting time of the Phillies game, and my local affiliate doesn't cut away until the Brewers game is finished, I'm going to set a new world record in pissed offedness.

[Kevin]

TNT will have the Phils game at 8:30. Like right now.

[Greg s]

Tnt until brewers game is over

[Kevin]

Jeez, Stockton looks like the Crypt Keeper.

[bay_area_phan]

Kevin: I could live to 150, and I will never receive a more helpful piece of advice than that one. Thanks.

[jhs]

Jeez, Nolan Ryan looks like Stockton's brother. Just saying.

[Kevin]

Holy crap, Craig Sager looks downright restrained. How odd.

[Kevin]

Hmmm. Is this a re-run?

[PHinBK]

Note to Chooch: every hitter is looking first pitch fastball of the Aces

[Phlipper (reaching for my sandwich on the Ben Franklin)]

"Since we are using career stats:

Garcia xFIP career at home - 3.35
Hamels xFIP career on road - 3.49"

MG - that is just one stat. If you can make a case that Garcia's overall career stats at home are better than Hamels on the road, then go for it.

But even then, I think that while comparing home and road stats is at least better sample size wise than comparing stats against the opposing teams, it still suffers the distorting effects of reducing sample size by 1/2. I see that distortion as lessening predictive quality more than it improves it (unless you're talking about a park like Colorado where the park factor is huge).

[Bake McBride was Here]

Here we go again.

[Old Phan]

Craig Sager's ties are overrated.

[jhs]

Didn't LaRussa sort of announce that they would swing early? Uh, Chooch?

[GBrettfan]

Pence looked clueless!

[Phlipper (climbing up tower #2 on the Ben Franklin after that triple)]

Will people panic in the first inning tonight like they did last night?

[Phlipper (climbing up tower #2 on the Ben Franklin after that triple)]

Looks like Lee isn't getting the calls early.

[The Perils of Thinking]

Just sick...

[Kevin]

Dear Cliff: I love you.

(and you're not half-bad yourself, Polly)

[jhs]

SWEET

[Phlipper (climbing up tower #2 on the Ben Franklin after that triple)]

Nice play for a "below average" 3rd baseman.

[bay_area_phan]

Great play by Polanco. Huge bullet dodged there.

[Muuurgh]

Ain't no thang!

Enjoying my Phillies Batter's Up ice cream in my new Lee all-star jersey....

Let's go.

[kuvasz]

Good. Stomp on their hearts after a lead off triple.