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« Friday: News and notes leading up to Game 5 | Main | J-Roll, Chase, Hunter, Ryan, Vic, Raul, Polly, Chooch »

Friday, October 07, 2011

Comments

Could... not... agree... more.

Have some determine whether the coin can hit the table.

Ah... what am I thinking... one of these umps will just carry a slingbox connected phone and watch the replay in a huddle....

"It's not about what I want, it's about what's fair!" - Some guy who flips coins alot

anyone going to the game tonight?

I'll be there and a nervous wreck!!

The past few seasons make one seriously question the value of investing in the upper echelon of team payrolls. Might as well spend enough to give your club a reasonable shot the Postseason, but not shell out for a Top 5-7 team. It may well be entirely true that winning a championship is a crapshoot, anything can happen in any given series, etc. & so forth. Those arguments notwithstanding, the simple fact is the vast majority of fans want their favorite team's season to end w/ a parade, not just a Postseason appearance. So if there isn't some tangible advantage to be gained to that end from spending so much money on payroll, then why do it?

At least there's no threat of rain or shadows.

I think the Phils have a tangible advantage in this game in teh person of Harry Leroy Halladay. Carpenter is a good pitcher but, I wouldn't switch with St. Louis. Moreover, the Phillies can reasonably expect another shot at the ring next year, regardless of tonight's outcome. The Cards' shot at it next year could very well depend upon their ability to expand the payroll to retain the greatest player in a generation, whose name makes my wife and kids howl every time I say it.

gtown- seriously? You spend the $$ to improve your chance of being one of the final 8.

GTown, the Phillies spending has helped them get in the playoffs 5 consecutive years, has it not?

How many teams other than the Phillies have done that recently? Not really many. If it's all just a crapshoot in the playoffs, don't you want to get in as much as possible and keep taking a stab at it?

Gtown: Exactly. I was thinking about this today. Since the playoffs seem to be random, just spend enough to get there and hope for the best. I wonder, though, if over the long term, the ones that are in the top echelon tend to win the most championships. I guess you'd have to look at all the WS winners and their respective payrolls.

Great teams win these games. Fans of great teams live to tell about it.

For those who really do the investing, I assume their first bottom line is the real bottom line. Does anyone know where the Phils stand in terms of profitability?

In terms of all of us who invest hundreds of hours of our time and energy into a baseball team, there's only one result that will adequately compensate us, and we first need to win that coin flip.

Yup, I'm taking solace in the fact that no matter what happens, we had without a doubt the best team in the majors this season. If this were European soccer, we'd already be league champs.

But the playoffs are such a crapshoot. You think the '08 team that won it all is better than this team (who may or may not win it all)? No way. The '08 team got hot and they had luck on their side to boot. Not to take anything away from that team, but the playoffs are more about luck than anything else.

SLO Phan, there is contradiction in your reasoning. If the playoffs are a crap shoot and the regular season is about who the actual best teams are, then you spend to make you are one of the best teams and therefore, make it very likely that you are one of the final 8 teams.

Teams that try to get away with doing "just enough" to get into the playoffs are teams that make it to the playoffs infrequently.

You have to be in the playoffs to win the championship, so you do what you can to make sure you in the playoffs.

Like they say, "Gotta be in it to win it".

Fatalotti: I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, because I really haven't settled on my own opinion. So let me put it this way: For weeks now I have been reading post after post after post on how anything can happen in a Postseason series, & to expect more of the Phillies than lesser clubs who have also qualified is unreasonable. Of course I also read post after post after post these past few offseasons RE: how signing this player or that player gives the Phillies such an advantage over other clubs. Now insofar as that means increasing the chances of getting to the Postseason, sure. But again, I doubt most fans -- or, for that matter, most players -- would be all that satisfied w/ merely getting to the Postseason. Even the year-to-year attendance/merchandise boost is bound to hit a point of diminishing return even as tens of millions of dollars are owed to aging players, & fans begin to think -- fairly or no -- that their team's window of opportunity has passed. So I ask again: if there isn't a tangible, Championship-attaining edge to being near the top of MLB in terms of team payroll, why do it?

Fata: Agreed. The difficult part is determining what that dollar threshold is, even if it exists. And, it would change every year depending on the competition in your division. It is most likely easier to just go "all in" as the Phils have.

If we win the coin flip, do we get to kick off?

@Gtown - for someone who seems to wear the scars of Phillies past, you seem to forget 2001 to 2006 pretty easily.

Everyone is throwing situational stats out there today. None of that matters. This is a one game season now.

As the Cards proved a few years ago, you can be the 8th best team and still win the WS. And as the Phils and Rays showed even more recently, you can have a WS where both teams are closer to #8 than to #1.

But it would suck to be #1 and be done on Oct 7.

I have a feeling we will no the result of this coin flip rather early. Either we step on Carp, or Halladay gives up some runs in the first inning. The other team will start pressing and make mistakes ending with a pretty good blow-out (7-1). I am taking my chances with Halladay...

It's 3:45, the game is almost 5 hours away, the best pitcher the Phillies have ever sent to the mound is pitching, the team won 102 games this year...

... and this game STILL feels like a loss.

Go ahead, tell me that human beings are rational...

All day, I've felt I'm going to throw up from nerves. I can't wait to get out of work-which thank God has been very busy and kept me preoccupied- and go home and drain a couple of pops to calm me down.

HammRadio: It's a hypothetical. Simply getting to the Postseason has been infinitely more fun than not getting there. On the other hand, if I were one of the ownership group I think I'd be asking myself if I might spend $20-$30 million less in payroll & still have that that same chance. As in, why try to keep up w/ the top few teams if doing so doesn't give your club an added advantage once you've already gotten to the Postseason?

2001 to 2006 - phils should spend more; 2007-2011 - success (mostly); now - best record in baseball, game 5 of best of 5 - spend less because I'm nervous, and if they lose I'd feel better if the payroll was lower?

Are you sure that is God's hand flipping the coin? It looks like Rube's hand to me.

Where is this line that shows spending just enough to make playoffs? And when the team claims to spend that amount and barely misses the playoffs, will that make you feel better because hey, at least the team didn't spend more?

Call it.

No. I ain't gonna call it.

Call it.

The coin don't have no say. It's just you.

Well, I got here the same way the coin did.

seriously?: You don't understand the word "hypothetical". It's OK, though. There are a multitude of online resources that might help you grasp the concept.

nonamePHame: Halladay got burned in the first inning his last start and lost. Same for Carpenter ...

Zolecki (via Twitter): Game 5 Lineup: Rollins SS, Utley 2B, Pence RF, Howard 1B, Victorino CF, Ibañez LF, Polanco 3B, Ruiz C, Halladay P.

No surprises. This is the vaunted "regular" lineup, & they need to score some damn runs.

so the hypothetical... is lets do the bare minimum and make the playoffs maybe 1 out of 5 years...

or go all in... and have 5 straight division championships.... with already one WS title...

hmm...

which one would I like to have...

I really like Halladay's numbers with 6 days rest. If there is anything comforting about a "coin flip" its that the Phils win most games Halladay starts.

It will be a damn shame if the crowd is as quiet as they were on Sunday. I don't expect they will be though because the stupid Eagles won't be playing sucking energy away from the only legitimately great franchise in the city.


I remain scared and I have a dog.

Nah. Don't think so. I don't care that the away team has won 8 of the last 9 of these. I don't care that Doc is the man tonight. I don't care that Carpenter is back on normal rest. I don't care that Ibanez is positioned to have his best game since Game 1 of this series. I don't care that Howard is due as is Chooch.

What I do care about is this is an elimination game at home. That should count for something.

I will be at the game and it will be great.

@J. Weitzel : Shouldn't "God" have bold red type since that is a picture of him flipping a coin??? The recent lack of attention to detail on this site is quite concerning...

LaRussa actually manages: "La Russa inserts Punto (4-14 vs. Halladay) and Schumaker (4-11) over Theriot (1-7) and Jay (1-11).

Is that kind of stuff really allowed?

There must be something about having to work hard for the wins when you're a lower seed and knowing that you can't ever let up lest the tide of "greater" teams overwhelm you.

I think that the #1 seeds seem to have an air of entitlement in their approach, whether it's acknowledged or not by them. I look at the two aces and their let downs after being spotted leads, for instance. The effort to keep up the killing pace, perhaps, is too much in their mind so they end up coasting. It's as much about focus than anything, I believe.

Those lesser seeded teams have no business thinking that they can rest upon any laurels..this might be the difference.

Actually, I'm thrilled that Cholly finally got around to splitting the lefties. Baby steps. Baby steps.

We could go back to the old days when winning the pennant meant you made the World Series.

Curt, Hindsight is 50/50, but given how poorly Pence has hit, I'd rather have JRoll, Vic, Chase.

New movie trailer rejecting the G-Town Dave hypothesis.

http://www.jest.com/video/46873/too-much-moneyball

My Yankee fan neighbor assures me they're doubling down on next year's budget.

you know i sorta liked the earlier game times this week.... as my nervousness didn't really kick in until just before game time... NOW... conditioned... I'm like 4 hours too early... ugh...

I think the animation is both unattractive and inappropriate.

As for the rest of the discussion from a business perspective it’s all been worth it. First, it’s not our money except to the extent that we buy the product and if they want to enhance the team by buying better players we should not criticize them. To the contrary we should encourage them after all we get to have extra baseball and who knows maybe nine more victories.
But there are two other factors: (1) civic pride it enhances Philadelphia’s stature. Just as the Yankees enhance NY and the Red Sox Boston. (2) But most important investing in a team creates value the Yankees are much more valuable than the Mets because of their history of winning. An example fo this is tonight’s game it’s in prime time. Everyone here should recall how when the Phillies finally made it into the playoffs the media stuck the games at odd times—usually in the afternoon—not anymore. The Phillies have arrived.
Let’s hope they can deliver so the owners continue to get addicted to winning and spending.

Who cares whether ownership feels like it's worth it to them? They make millions on top of the millions they already have whether we win or not.

And fu*k a bunch of coins... Doc's got this.

Maybe ownership should take that money they would otherwise use to upgrade the bullpen, and invest in a pair of some loaded dice.

Also, there IS a tangible postseason advantage to spending for talent. All anyone's been saying for a week-plus now is that these Cards are the toughest pre-WS team we've ever played... you think the '08-'10 Phils would be more likely to still be in this series?

Because the postseason is shorter, the likelihood is higher that the best team won't be the last team standing, but that doesn't mean it doesn't behoove you to be the best team.

On Payroll (short version)(long version did not seem to post):
If RAJ trades Pence for money, buys out Oswalt and Lidge, and keeps JRoll, Hamels, Madson, and other arb eligible players...they could keep payroll at about the same and still field a contender.

I'd be curious to count out all the post-season series since divisional play started, and see how many of those series were won by the team with the better record. My wild guess would be somewhere between 55 and 60%.

Walter Cronkite

Cheer, clap, be loud & supportive, no matter what - on behalf of those of us not lucky enough to be there!

Oops, forgot to address my "Cheer" exhortation to those going to the game! I suppose that was obvious enough.

Holy crap, philwynk. I was thinking the exact same thing.

"Generally speaking, things have gone about as far as they can possibly go, when things have gotten about as bad as they can reasonably get."

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