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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

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Well that was fast...

What's the over/under on what Oswalt gets next year, Jack?

And keep in mind, that you already owe me $10,000 if Polly doesn't hit .200 or above.

I mean you owe me $10,000 if he does hit .200 or above.

can't they photoshop rhea hughes' face?! really getting tired of horseface on here and csnphilly.com

is it ok if i answer? i'd set the line at $8M.

btw, take your time healing Ryan:

"After returning from AAA on July 5, Mayberry posted a wOBA of .408 and a wRC+ of 160 with 12 home runs in 163 at-bats. Over the same period, Howard hit 16 home runs in 258 at-bats, but his wOBA was .353 and his wRC+ was 122."

SSS to be sure, but not so small that it can be totally discounted. i say it was the change in his stance/swing, but others, namely Heather and Clout will say STEROIDS. oh wait, that's only for players on other teams.

haha@ a good 6 years. but its posturing so that's fine.

Phlipper: If the Phils buy him out, he will not get more than $12M, for sure.

Did Rollins resign or something? (for those of us at work where video & twitter are blocked)

What's the purpose of the press conference?

JRoll has 6 years or being able to perform at a high level? He seems pretty adamant about getting the 5 years. Don't think he gets it althogh he does get 4.

This is a press conference about nothing really. I am convinced though that Amaro already has a contract with a dollar figure in mind with JRoll that he will offer right away & won't budge on. Phils either resign JRoll right after FA starts within the first week or he's gone.

sounds to me like he's gone...or at least definitely turning down the phils offer and shopping the market.

I'd think that Oswalt could manage a 2-year, $20M deal on the market. Probably no more in terms of years or annual value.

I'll be able to play for a least 6 years at a high-level because my dad is still in good shape.

***I'll be able to play for a least 6 years at a high-level because my dad is still in good shape.***


Well, my father was a piano mover so...

People generally dislike Eskin but he generally cuts to the point which I appreciate.

It is about money.

If Jimmy feels he can play at a high level for another 6 years, he should have no issues taking a 3 year deal as he'll easily get another 3 year deal afterwards as he'll still be an elite SS...right?

That said, I would love to see JRoll retire in a Phils' player but I would give him a 4/5 year deal.

5/50 and call it a day Ruben. By then, we will probably be crap again anyway. 10 million won't mean anything.

If you were taking a shot every time a well-worn sports cliches was used during this press conference, you would be rapidly approaching a black out.

If you were a 120-pound female, you would have alcohol poisoning.

Jimmy sure is a smooth talker. I almost believed that the Phils have the best shot at keeping him.

It will be a sad day if Rollins appears at CBP wearing another team's colors. I'm not suggesting you do a Jeter deal but, it will still be tough to see.

Willie Mays finished his career as a Met...


We'll get over Rollins in another uniform and he'll still get his Wall of Fame plaque as a Phillie.

Bowa and Ashburn also finished with the Mets.

I get that, NEPP. Still don't want to see Rollins as a Met. He'd be a big loss short term but, a dubious investment over 5 years. Somewhere in years 3, 4 and 5, you probably pass diminishing returns to dead weight territory.

Madson's gone.

Ruben just said he isn't comfortable with any internal closer options outside of Madson. So, if not Madson, then they will need to get someone else via FA.

Papelbon would work...or Heath Bell or any of the other options.

There are a glut of good closers available so Rube could easily wait a few months and get one cheaper...instead of setting the market as the first one in as he tends to do.

I do have to say that Rube is pretty forthcoming in these press conferences.

Really shows the difference between the Phils and Iggles organizations. Rube lies and dodges, but at least he throws reporters a bone or two.

I'd rather see a 37 year old broken down Jimmy Rollins soaking up the Mets' payroll than the Phillies'...

I noticed that when Rube lies he pulls his left ear.

It really looked as if Rube had been crying for 3 days. His eyes were fire red and he was constantly hydrating to replace lost tears.

Weren't the Mets grooming tejada as a (cheap) replacement for reyes? Not sure they want to spend money on a "broken down" JRoll

If not Madson, RAJ will get a closer. Book it. If Jimmy really wants to retire a Phillie (and he's not blowing smoke), then it's up to RAJ to make it happen. If RAJ offers a 4-yr 40 million deal and Jimmy declines then we know he was lying.

I had the press conference on for a copuple of minutes. Did I hear RAJ say that "Charlie likes the home run ball. We all do. But we're not the same yeam anymore". I was on the phone here at work so I didn't pay that much attention. But if that's the case, then why is Charlie managing like it was 3 years ago?

"People generally dislike Eskin but he generally cuts to the point which I appreciate."

When it comes to the Phillies. If it's the Eagles, it's all, "would that be chocolate glazed or powdered Mr. Reid?"

DPatrone: Please explain the "managing like it was 3 years ago" logic. You've said it numerous times and you've never given any explanation to it.

Are you referring to playing for home runs? How does one do that?

***Are you referring to playing for home runs? How does one do that?***

Clearly by allowing Polly to hit for himself in the 8th instead of PHing with a pure singles hitter like Mayberry...

r00b should be waiting to see what the market is, not pulling his usual "signwhoIwantrightdamnnowwhocareswhatitcosts!" schtick. Rollins is delusional, & shelling out for any "veteran Closer" not named Mariano Rivera would be even worse. It doesn't take a genius to throw more money around, it takes a genius to get good players at a fair price (in years & dollars). Halladay aside, r00b has been consistently sub-par in that regard.

And I'm more convinced than ever that the organization has lost faith in Dom Brown. You could almost sense the air of "Maybe if we give him a chance to put up some big numbers in AAA the rest of baseball will forget about last season & we'll be able to work a decent trade" in the room. Kinda makes you think the FO feels Mayberry/Vic/Pence will be enough.

TTI~ Charlie does have the propensity to sit back and wait for the 3-run bomb. That used to happen a lot with this team. Not so much anymore.

He's not a strategist by any means. That is my opinion of the way he manages. I would rather have a runner in scoring position with 1 out, a runner on first with 1 out (FC), or 2 outs and nobody on (DP). But that's just me. Especially in a 1-run game.

Whether you agree or disagree is up to you. But in a 1-run game the first thing you do is to try to gain a tie, then go for broke. Especially at home. Whether the players execute or not is on them.

Let me put it this way: a lot of people felt that giving Polanco a 3-year deal wasn't a good move due to his age. Polanco was 34 at the time. J-Roll is 33, & has spent significant time on the DL in 3 of the past 4 seasons. We've already seen -- & he readily admits to -- having to pick & choose the moments in which he runs hard in order to preserve his health. And there are still folks here who think a 4-5 year deal would be reasonable? Nothing Rollins can contribute over the next season or two would be worth paying for the following 2-3 years, as well.

I think one of the OFs not named Pence gets traded this offseason...If I was gonna bet I would say Brown or Victorino when it should probably be Mayberry.

Listening to Olney last night on Baseball Tonight and he was talking about why the Reds would apparently be looking to move Votto.

Made several goods points including the possibility that Votto would take up 25-30% of the Reds' payroll in a few years (which isn't sustainable) and that for teams to get a decent return of MLB-ready talent/young talent they need to trade a guy at least 1 year before FA. Said it is why the Astros moved Pence this year.

DPatrone: That all sounds though like you think events aren't linked together in a game which is just incredibly faulty and foolish logic.

Also, how many of the Phillies runs were scored via the home run in 2008 through this season? Do you have any stats that back up your assertions?

Votto and Pence are not in the same league. Votto is a guy to build around; Pence is a complementary player. I think Olney is assuming hte Reds don't plan to compete, ever, if he thinks the Reds are going to trade Votto after extending him for another 3 years. If I had to handicap it, they're not even thinking about it. They're going to try to win with Votto, within their budget, in 2012 and 2013.

TTI~ As far as stats, no, but I can tell you, the 2008 Phils offense was better and scored more runs, hit more HR's. They mashed. For 2 years now our offense has declined.

Everything I say, you think is foolish and stupid. When other people basically say the same, you don't say a word.

Let me just say this, if he'd played just a little small-ball, we might be in the NLCS. As it turned out, we're not. Enough said.

***For 2 years now our offense has declined.***

For 2 years, the overall Majors offense has declined too.

Hugh - But they have Yonder Alonso whose only real position is 1B in NL. Plus Votto's salary goes to $19M in '13 and with a payroll likely around $80-$85M.

Farm system has little right now in the way of viable starting prospects who will help them the next year or so & their MLB starting staff is thin at best.

Unlikely they will trade Votto but there are several worthwhile reasons to entertain doing so especially in regards to trying to get a stud pitching prospect or two. Also could a legit prospect at a few positions.

The Reds probably have a decent shot at the playoffs next year as Milwaukee will be much weaker without Fielder and the Cardinals might just crap out if Pujols moves on. This is a Reds team that was just in the postseason a year ago. STupid to trade your best hitter when you could easily make the post-season again and rake in the money as a result.

MG - I recognize that they have an internal option and could use an ace to anchor that rotation. I don't think the Reds are in a mode to take a step back to take that step forward, though. Votto is the core of the lineup and they expect to compete next year.

NEPP - Yeah. My bet is they take one more roll of the dice with Votto to try to make the postseason and hope they can a few breaks with their rotation (slight rebounds from Arroyo and Volquez, etc).

Baker is also signed through '12. If they flop again next year and only finish .500, they will fire Baker, trade Votto, and likely start fresh a bit as Jocketty reshapes the team according to his dictates.

Rube accidentally traded Howard away for Mark Texiera and then gave up Texiera, Cliff Lee and Hamels to Toronto and Anaheim and traded the pieces back with Brown and Pence to NY for Howard and Posada. But Howard would only approve the deal if the Phils and Yanks both gave him another 4 years at 30 mil a year tacked on to the old deal. It will be announced at Halladay's retirement ceremony tomorrow.

in division, i think the Marlins and Nats spend this offseason. on what, ????? but the Marlins in particular need to go on a spree to hope for a packed new house.

depending on what they get, each could be significantly more dangerous next year.

The Reds would be smart to just toss Alonso in LF and deal with his defense there in exchange for his bat. They could bludgeon their way to a 90 win season in the Central if they get even a little pitching support.

I'd expect the Nats to make a big run at Fielder or Pujols. They have the cash and they want to compete badly.

TTI:

Percentage of Phillies Runs Scored via Home Run

'08 - 43%

'09 - 45%

'10 - 35%

'11 - 34%

Pitching can only make up for so much, & in an elimination series managers whose teams cannot hit for power will have to find other ways to score Runs, or go home. Charlie refuses to adapt, so he dies.

Anyone see where they want Dom Brown to get another 500-600 at bats in AAA?

I don't know if he will be a failure or a bust, but why do the Phils always wait so long with their prospects? Howard didn't really play until 27, same with Utley. Meanwhile Jason Heyward is only 23 and has 2 full seasons under his belt.

All of this talk/speculation and arm-chair GM'ing is great, and we all can see that there are numerous moves to dictate where this team is headed. However, only one move will generate the primary source of discussion on Beerleaguer for the next year or so - what not-quite-ready-for-the-bigs jabroni does RAJ select in the next Rule 5?

Phillies in 2007: 213 home runs, 892 runs

Phillies in 2008: 214 home runs, 799 runs

Phillies in 2009: 224 home runs, 820 runs

Phillies in 2010: 166 home runs, 772 runs

Phillies in 2011: 153 home runs, 713 runs

DPatrone: Please tell me how you see any kind of trend in that. They hit 48 less home runs in 2010 than in 2008 yet only scored 27 runs less. This year they hit 13 less than last year and scored 59 less runs. Also in 2010 they were without Utley and Howard for significant periods of time. This year they were without Utley for 2 months and basically laid down in September for 2 weeks.

I do call you foolish often but only because you say goofy things and then offer nothing else. I want you to rationalize the conclusion you are coming to here. All these years are within the scope of Charlie's managerial career with us. What was he doing differently year to year?

Nats will sign a 'big-name' FA. Sure their fans hope they spend $100M+ on someone better than Werth.

I could seeing them dramatically overpaying for CJ Wilson and regretting it

"who says Charlie has to adapt? He seems to be doing good."
-Andy Reid

Brown starting another year at AAA? Can't think of the rationale behind this except that if Amaro thinks that Brown needs a confidence booster & that if he under performs in Philly that he won't be able to handle the scrutiny.

This comment was the most interesting one during the whole interview:

Ruben on Charlie: “He’s come to the realization that it’s not just about the home run. [There are a] lot of different pieces of the puzzle to scoring runs.” [emphasis added]

Isn't the irony kind of lost on Amaro though that while he chastises Cholly for relying upon the HR too much that he has acquired a bunch of older hitters who don't have much speed and don't tend to take that many BBs (Polanco, Ibanez)?

JT - how'd that work out for the Braves and Heyward this year?

I don't take Amaro's comments as ironic. It's not like he's suggesting they play like the '85 Cards or '79 Astros. He's got decent speed up the middle with Victorino, Rollins and Utley, all of whom can (or could) steal and take the extra base. He added Polanco, the "quintessential hit and run guy" and he's got a bopper in left and at first. He went out and got a decent, young-legged baserunner, even if not a base stealer, in Pence. Doesn't seem like he's telling Manuel to play Earl Weaver ball to me.

Ruben on Charlie: “He’s come to the realization that it’s not just about the home run. [There are a] lot of different pieces of the puzzle to scoring runs.” [emphasis added]

He has? Has r00b been watching the same team I'm watching? All year we sat around saying, "Gee, I wonder why the Phillies don't run more, maybe try to spark something, grind out a few Runs". Even the club's own broadcasters questioned the lack of aggressive play. Charlie's the same as he ever was, only w/out the benefit of players who are still capable of hitting the long ball. Or did r00b mean Charlie has come to said realization now, only after his team has crapped out in increasingly humiliating fashion for the third straight October?

Yeah, I see the Nats going after Wilson (there was already a report about their probably "interest"). There was also a report they are nat interetsed in Fielder.

Conshy Matt.... At least they know and got some production out of the kid. Phils are going to need Brown to be the starting LF next year, as Mayberry may be playing 1B. Lets start telling the kid he's ready.

Do they get a bulk rate sports hernia surgery deal?

Here's what I'd like to see. Let Rollins go. He will want too may years/dollars. It's just the way he is. Big Rollins fan, but goodbye and thank you.

Say goodbye to Oswalt and Ibanez.

This would have been the year to say goodbye to Howard, but that's water under the bridge.

Get Utley a couple of those PRP injections in his knees. From my understanding of his knee problems, this is more likely to work than any surgery or medication. PRP is great stuff. (Platelet Rich Plasma.)

I think Bourne is in the last year of his contract. If that's correct, sign him to a 3-4 year contract and plug him in at leadoff. He catches everything. He steals bases and is a game changing small ball guy. Reacquiring Bourn means you put Vic in left, Bourn in center and Pence in right. Best defensive outfield in baseball and no slouch on the offense.

Put Galvis at SS. He is very likely not ready, so have Valdez as the backup plan (adequate defensively, slightly below average on offense.)

Mayberry plays first until Howard comes back, and Howard being a big guy, he may miss at least half the season. Then, Mayberry becomes a fourth outfielder/first baseman who gets a lot of at bats against lefties.

Pick up a guy like Dobbs, unless Dobbs is available himself, to platoon with Polly.

Resign Madson, or sign another of the numerous closers on the market. And it's time to go with as many of the minor league relievers as possible to save a few bucks.

The starters are Doc, Lee, Hamels, Worley, KK and if Blanton looks healthy, he can take KK's spot and KK shifts back to the long man/spot starter roll.

Not that SB's are the be all/end all to small ball or "non HR oriented" offenses, but basepath aggression should correlate more to those team's who manufacture runs or don't wait for the long ball. In that vein, the Phillies were day/night in the SB department in their 2011 splits:
1st half: 61 SB's/11 CS (72 attempts)
2nd half: 35 SB's/13 CS (48 attempts)

Vic had twice as many SB attempts and steals in the first half of the season. Granted, he moved to the heart of the lineup toward the end of the season, but there were many instances where he didn't so much as think about swiping a bag.

Again, SB's is just one small data point and there are other factors in play (batting order, runners holding to open hole for lefties, etc.), but it was very noticeable that the Phillies abandoned an overly aggressive approach on the base paths over time. I'm not one who subscribes to Davy Lopes' departure as having a radical impact on anyone's ability to swipe a bag, but when you have a team who can turn a BB or a 1B into a double, games such as the very last of the season (1-0, etc.) feel a bit more winnable.

I don't know a single Phils fan who thought that this team had the ability to score that essential single run via anything other than XBH's or a long ball.

aksmith -- Sounds like a plan! Getting younger on the cheap!

Let's all thank whoever we Thank that aksmith is not the GM of the Phillies.

He added Polanco, the "quintessential hit and run guy"

For all the "bat control", "professional at bats", "hit and run guy" comments from our crack broadcasting crew, did anybody ever see any of that? I just saw a guy who tries to hit the ball up the middle or to right and doesn't strike out much, but I don't see a guy who consistently moved runners or any of that old school stuff.

Bourn is under contract this year for Atlanta.

I was in the "play Brown and see what he can do, but have a backup plan" camp during last year's Spring Training. Thankfully a backup plan manifested itself eventually.

I'm not so sure that I subscribe to the same methodology for Galvis. The knock on him has always been his bat. For a team who's Achilles heel was offensive inconsistency, I'm not sure I'm ready to roll the dice on a guy who saw a marginal uptick offensively, yet still projects to need considerable improvements. Though, I've never really been sold that Galvis is MLB caliber at much more than his glove, so I'm sure my bias is showing.

Edmundo - Making frequent contact and hitting the ball up the middle or to right side is pretty much the hit and run skill that the blathering mouthpieces like to tout. What is this 'old school stuff' you were looking for?

Where's CJ? I was hoping we'd be revisiting our preseason predictions soon.

Hugh, like actually being effective at it, a net plus over someone like Victorino? Polanco more likely to ground into a DP or fly softly to right as actually put the ball in the hole.

I agree with you, Edmundo, that Polanco wasn't adequate in his role this year. That's why he disappeared from the top of the lineup for hte playoffs. I was just trying to understand your comment. He popped the ball in the air or grounded weakly far too often this year. He didn't hit the ball with authority in comparison to years past. I'd even guess he slipped a bit in the contact department, although his overall strikeout totals were close to years past. Just didn't seem to come through on two strike counts as often as I'm used to.

Someone wrote they could see Rollins on the Mets next year.

There is NO WAY Rollins signs with the Mets. He is hated in NY. And the Mets are re-building, going with a youth movement, not giving out big contracts to anyone not named Jose Reyes. If they do not re-sign Reyes, Tejada's their SS.

Preacher: I've been wondering the same thing.

Get so tired of hearing the cliched 'small-ball argument'

People who harp that the 'Phils didn't play small ball vs. Cards' seem to overlook:

- A few plays where the Phils were aggressive and it backfired on them including 3 CS

- Yadier Molina has arguably the best throwing arm in MLB (difference between him Chooch really showed this year)

- Duncan has always emphasized to his pitchers to keep runners close at 1B and not concede a big lead/huge running start


"Charlie refuses to adapt, so he dies."

Yeah. Charlie's "refusal to adapt" is evident, and the "death" is abundantly apparent.

Just look at the team's win/loss record. 102 wins = death.

Gosh the Phils are in so much trouble going into 2012. (Sarcasm.)

MG: It's one thing to prefer getting guys on & driving 'em in w/ XBH to "small ball", but the Phillies are incapable of doing so. Two 1 Run losses in the NLDS. The Cardinals are good at keeping runners on base, but it's hard to give them all of the credit when the Phillies didn't even try. In order to win in October a team has to be able to hit for power AND be capable of manufacturing the occasional Run. The Phillies -- against all reasonable expectations -- did enough of the former to win a couple of games, but never even attempted the latter. Admitting it's a huge weakness doesn't instantly equate to becoming the poster boy for a return to the Cardinals' offenses of the early-mid 80s.

SO how bad would it be to recieve prime picks for Rollins and Madson?

Phlipper: I referred specifically to elimination series, & you know it. Even clout has proven himself able to engage in intelligent, honest discourse while disagreeing w/ the opinions of others. We're still waiting on you.

RK: I suppose that depends on who'd be making those picks. If the Phillies are serious about getting younger, it wouldn't hurt. And I still wish MLB would allow teams to trade picks.

Phils GM Amaro Speaks On Offense, Rollins, Madson

The first part of this article is esp. interesting. Even more interesting will be the way in which Charlie & GG -- & by extension, the players -- respond. Can't imagine r00b being more straightforward as to what he wants to see than that. It also happens to be almost entirely at odds w/ Charlie's hitting philosophy.


Ruben Amaro wants this team to have a change in hitting approach and higher batting average next year.

If it was only that easy. He could only manage a .235 career batting average when he was a player. Why didn't HE change his hitting approach when he played LOL?

rty = Ruben the Younger?

By no means am I saying that inability to steal a base is what cost the Phillies the NLDS, though in a 1-0 game, it certainly may have helped. MG, you're exactly right in that no one really swipes a lot of bags against the Cardinals because of the reasons you outlined. My comment on base stealing, in general, was to refute the whole notion that Cholly has given up on relying on the long ball. Stats, against all teams, including those not named the Cardinals, show that the Phillies have actually regressed, by a rather significant degree as a matter of fact, on their reliance on aggressive stealing/base running. To blow it out even further, the 2011 team was the first in the last 5 years to not steal 100 bases.

I read the Rube presser Q&A. I thought he spoke his thoughts freely and kept quiet about what should be kept quiet, i.e. negotiations on JRoll and Madson.
He was more veiled in his comments when he said, "We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in ‘08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change.”
I had written in BL right after the Phils got the 1-0 5th game boot from the Cards that we would have a new hitting coach. It sounds like Rube is giving Greg Gross, and possibly even Cholly, a lifeline to institute some changes. If not, Greg Gross goes early in the 2012 season, to be followed shortly thereafter by Cholly.
More Rube quotes on this problem, "We should have more .300 hitters. These guys have the ability to do it, it’s whether they are committed to doing it or not.”
"I’m more concerned about us committing to a different style or a different approach to our offensive game than I am about anything else.”
"Offensively, we have to try to look at different ways to improve. We have the personnel to do it, it’s matter of whether they want to take the time and be committed to improving on some areas they need to improve on."
"If the guys playing on our club don’t make adjustments we’re going to have some trouble … I am challenging Charlie and GG to help facilitate that … Charlie is in agreement that we have to change the way we approach some things. If we can do that and are committed to it then we can be successful.”
I think that says it all. The coaches have to coach situational hitting better and the players have to instutute those changes. He likes the way Polly works at the plate. It sounds like there is disappointment about others (unnamed) in our line-up. He was clear as day about Dom, a player we will see very little of in 2012. All in all, I think Rube is in command and did a nice job today.

I, did not sign that short stop, to a five year deal....Mr. Rollins.

Amaro's quote on Dom Brown was:

In a perfect world, if I had my druthers, I’d keep in him at Triple A and get him 500 or 600 at-bats and go from there.

I didn't read that as Dom will spend 2012 in AAA.

If I had my druthers, I would trade Dom to a team for a low cost high return closer and shortstop.

Brown was basically boo'd to the bench at AAA. Rube would like to see him get 600 AB's at LV but probably sees him returning to Reading.

If Dom had his druthers, Dom would be guaranteed a starting job with the Phillies next year. Dom's a star, people! Just don't pay any attention to Dom's fielding. Dom's fielding ain't important.

oddly, the guy who epitomizes the very approach that Rube is discussing is Howard. yet Rube made him one of the highest paid players in the game.

Another 4-5 seasons of J-Roll's patented 2-Pitch Pop-Outs from the leadoff position would fit right in w/ r00b's expectation of a team full of .300 hitters who work the count ...

Wait, what?

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